Thesis BY NEHA
Thesis BY NEHA
Thesis BY NEHA
“SOCIO – ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AN IMPACT FOR MASTER PLAN PREPRATION FOR SHILLONG
PLANNING AREA, INDIA”
Dissertation submitted to the Kumaun University, S.S.J. Campus, Almora, and Uttrakhand for partial fulfillment of the requirements for
the degree of master of Geographic Information science and Technology.
GUIDED BY
Submitted to
Submitted By
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CERTIFICATE
CERTIFICATE
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RECOMMENDATION LETTER
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Disclaimer
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Acknowledgement
Table of Content
Pg.
1. INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………………..12.
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1.1. Introduction of Socio – Economic…………………………..………………………………………….12.
1.2. Need Of study………………………………………………………………………………………………..13.
1.3. Limitation of the study…………………………………………………………………………………….14.
1.4. Background of study……………………………………………………………………………………….14.
1.5. Objective………………………………………………………………………………………………….……15.
1.6. Research Question…………………………………………………………………………………………..15.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………………………………………………….…15.
3. STUDY AREA…………………………………………………………………………………..20.
3.1. History…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..21.
3.2. Climate……………………………………………………………………………………………………….....22.
3.3. Fact and Figure……………………………………………………………………………………………….22.
5. Data Collection………………………………………………………………………………26.
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6. Data processing……………………………………………………………………………..37.
8. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………….71.
9. REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………..72.
Table of Figures
Pg.
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Figure 2.2: Household map 2001.....................................................................................................…...32.
Figure 9: Weighted overlay parameters for land suitability suitable for study..........................…….57.
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Figure 11.7. Reclassified Shillong Slope..........................................................................................….64.
Figure 11.8. Weighted Overlay for Health service 2031...............................................................….64.
Figure 12: Model 3 for 2021 Educational service...........................................................................….65.
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List of tables Pg.
Table: 5.2.2.Census Town, Population and household, 2001 and 2011 census...............28.
Table: 5.2.3.Ri-Bhoi District, Population and household, census 2001 and 2011............28.
Table: 5.2.4.Shillong Municipal Board, Population and household, Census 2001 and
2011.................................................................................................................................... 29.
Table: 5.2.5.East Khasi Hills, Population and household, Census 2001 and 2011.......30.
Table: 6.2.6. East Khasi Hills, Projected Population and Household, 2021 and 2031
............................................................................................................................................ 42.
Table 7.1. Weighted overlay parameters for land suitability suitable for study.........56.
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1. INTRODUCTION
In accordance with the changes in environment, India has made enormous strides
towards the development of the nation. The concerted and coordinated efforts of the
national governments through five year plans, starting from 1951, have changed the
economic scenario of the country considerably. The changes and development was
through the development programmers formulated and implemented by the national
government. Development is a multi- 2 dimensional phenomenon. Some of its major
dimensions includes: the level of economic growth, level of education, quality of
housing, distribution of goods and services, and access to communication. Therefore,
the Socio-economic development is conceivable through development administration in
the rural area.
The term socioeconomics is sometimes used to name quite specific research programs
(e.g. Lutz, 2006) it most often appears as an umbrella term for a number of partly highly
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successful but diverse and occasionally antagonistic approaches. While some of them are
methodologically highly elaborated research endeavors that made significant
contributions in fields such as new economic sociology and political economy, it is
difficult to combine them to a unified paradigm for the engagement with economic
phenomena. Thus, the term socioeconomics does not represent an alternative way to do
economics, it represents many different ways. Even the activities pursued in the context
of communities such as the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics (SASE)
have been characterized as empirically successful but lacking a sufficiently concise
theoretical underpinning (see: Boyer 2008; Hollingsworth and Müller 2008; Müller 2014).
With rapid advances of remote sensing technologies during the last two decades,
satellite imagery provides accurate and up-to-date information of the land surface,
making the integration of remotely sensed data with other environmental and socio-
economic data sets beneficial.
1.2. Need Of study
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It’s very important to analyze the socio- economic status in every 10 years so that
by identifying the socio – economic sensitive areas we can take decentralized
measures by Building up of adequate technical and professional man-power
through Education and Training, Encouraging setting of Livestock and Poultry
Industries. Integrated planning for infrastructure, develop tourist potential,
improve mobility, clean and green shillong, commercial center development.
Limitations of the Study these research boundaries are selected Central and State
sponsored programme initiated and implemented by the government of Meghalaya for
the socio-economic development of the future population in Shillong.
After the 1991 Census and before the end of the first half of 1992, the Ri-Bhoi Civil Subdivision
of the East Khasi Hills upgraded to the status of Districts. In 2011, the total population of East
khasi hills is 824,059 and RI – Bhoi is 258,380. we can see the variation among the different
years as follow below in the table :
Table: 1.4. 1
1.5. Objective
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(i) Identification of socio – economic Sensitive areas.
(ii) Identification of existing social infrastructure in the shillong planning areas
(iii) Suggestion for future socio economic planning
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2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Here, Literature reviews will provide the basic understanding about the research topic
and which may strengthen and sharpen the researchers views on his research works,
further the review may link with the current situation of the research work. This review
may contains that the background information about the research problem which has to
be investigated, research reports and articles and books and journals.
2.1.1. Demography
The site showcases data on the industry and occupational profile of the county, the
number of people of working age in the labor force, the rate of unemployment, and
the number of people living in poverty.
2.1.3. Health
The health status of a county’s population, coupled with the mix of health-related
resources available to residents, are of increasing importance to individuals and
businesses that wish to stay or move to communities in the state. This site provides
information on health access, infant/child mortality rates, births to teenage mothers, and
data on such timely topics as obesity, smoking and drug-related behaviors.
While access to quality jobs has tended to serve as a magnet for attracting talent to a
county, what research has shown is that educated and skilled workers are also looking
for places that offer a variety of historical, cultural and natural resource amenities. A
good collection of information of amenities on a county basis are highlighted in this
section of the Rural Indiana Stats site.
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2.2. Data manipulation Factors.
This segment discusses methods used in converting analogue data to a digital format.
The analogue map of shillong was scanned and different features were digitized after
georeferencing. The digitized map was then imported to ArcGIS where the coordinate of
the households obtained using GPS which was saved in Microsoft excel as a database.
Some of the database o the attribute data acquire were created using Microsoft excel
and saved as database file and imported into ArcGIS as an event theme while some
were directly created in ArcGIS.
The plan, at this stage is to formulate Vision based on existing conditions and
development issues and stakeholder consultation. Goals and objectives related to
dispersal of activities, environmental and infrastructure sustainability, mass
transportation and informal activities, Information and Communication Technology,
women and poorer sections to be incorporated if not already included. As in a
developing country, the demand for urban land will inevitably increase over a long
period. This demand is driven by the growth in both economic development and in the
population so It should consist of the guiding planning principles for the plan
formulation. Like whether the city development strategy is for Compact city/ Green city/
Dense cities. Also, if it is a tourist city, Heritage city, Educational hub, Industrial city etc.
Abdullahi, Saleh, Ahmad Rodzi bin Mahmud, and Biswajeet Pradhan. "Spatial modelling
of site suitability assessment for hospitals using geographical information system-based
multicriteria approach at Qazvin city, Iran."). This paper presents a comparison between
the results of AHP and the ordinary least square (OLS) evaluation model, based on
various criteria, to select suitable sites for new hospitals in Qazvin city, Iran. Based on the
obtained results, proximity to populated areas (0.3) and distance to air polluted areas
(0.23–0.26) were the two highest important criteria with high weight value. The results
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show that these two techniques not only have similarity in size (in m2 ) for each
suitability class but they also have similarity in spatial distribution of each class in the
entire study area. Based on calculations of both techniques, 1–2%, 25%, 40–43%, 16–
20% and 14% of study areas are assigned as ‘not suitable’, ‘less suitable’, ‘moderately
suitable’, ‘suitable’ and ‘most suitable’ areas for construction of new hospitals. Results
revealed that a 75% similarity was found in the distribution of suitability classes in
Qazvin city using both techniques. Nineteen per cent (19%) of the study area are
assigned as ‘suitable’ and ‘most suitable’ by both methods, so these areas can be
considered as safe or secure areas for clinical purposes. Moreover, almost all (99.8%)
suitable areas are located in district 3, because of its higher population, less numbers of
existing hospitals and large numbers of barren land plots of acceptable size.
Bunruamkaew, K. and Murayam, Y., (2011), Site suitability evaluation for ecotourism
using GIS & AHP: A case study of Surat Thani province, Thailand. Procedia-Social and
Behavioral Sciences, The main objective of this study is to identify and prioritize the
potential ecotourism sites using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytical
Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Surat Thani Province, Thailand. This study identifies the
following factors as indicators of suitability within land ecosystems:
landscape/naturalness, wildlife, topography, accessibility and community characteristics.
The evaluating process for ecotourism site conducted based on nine chosen criteria
including visibility, land use/cover, reservation/protection, species diversity, elevation,
slope, proximity to cultural sites, distance from roads and settlement size. Those factors
were selected according to the professional expert’s opinions. AHP was effectively used
in this study to calculate the details of the factors and class weights. GIS plays a crucial
role in ecotourism planning. The methodology proposed was useful to identify
ecotourism sites by linking the criteria deemed important with the actual resources of
the Province.
Be´langer and Caron Malignant (2005), In Canada, quarterly population estimates are
produced without detail of ethnic group (Statistics Canada 2007). However, population
projections for visible minority populations for provinces and regions by age and sex are
generated by micro simulation. The base population consists of a 20 per cent census
sample of permanent residents, which is adjusted for under-enumeration.
Lolonis, P., Armstrong, M.P., Pavlik, C.E. and Lin, S. (1992), Accuracy of a GIS-based small-
area population projection method used in spatial decision support systems. This paper
describes a recently developed GIS-based population projection method for small
spatial units, known as the Modifiable Spatial Filter (MSF) method, and evaluates the
accuracy of its projections with respect to a parameter that controls the sample size of
the data that are used to estimate projection parameters. This assessment is made with
respect to average absolute eiror, average relative error, distribution of absolute error,
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and absence of bias for subgroups. Results show that MSF projections appear to be
stable when the parameter is greater than fifteen.
Statistics New Zealand (2007), In New Zealand, population estimates are produced from
the census of the usually resident population. The method is based on a cohort
component method that takes into account demographic change between Census night
and mid-year by ethnicity, age and sex for sub-national areas. Adjustments for residents
temporarily overseas and for non-response are also made to the population estimates
following a post-enumeration survey, taking into account national differentials by age,
sex and ethnic group, but without area differentials
Tom Wilson (2011), His report presents a review of existing methods for producing sub-
regional population projections. At the sub-regional scale a wide variety of methods has
been proposed and applied to produce population projections. This report describes the
key features, strengths and weaknesses of many existing sub-regional projection
methods according to the assessment criteria set out below. It makes recommendations
on which are worthy of consideration in the new OESR SA2 area projection model. The
most commonly mentioned projection methods from the literature are included in this
review, aIn Canada, quarterly population estimates are produced without detail of ethnic
group (Statistics Canada 2007). However, population projections for visible minority
populations for provinces and regions by age and sex are generated by micro
simulation. The base population consists of a 20 per cent census sample of permanent
residents, which is adjusted for under-enumeration long with a few less well-known
methods. where a basic distinction is made between methods which explicitly model the
demographic components of change (component) and those which do not (non
component), and between methods which just produce total populations and those
which create projections by age group.
Xie et al. ( 2006) ; Zhu et al. (2009), These Chinese scholars who have regarded urban
land use as increasing the input to land use with the aim of acquiring significantly more
output, which contrasts with the traditional concept of agricultural land-use intensity.
So, there are various way to implementation of plans for socio - economic analysis
which provide an accurate result in a productive manner whereas for shillong city, the
principal contribution of this study is to understand the contraceptive use and method
choice among people living in slums, and the indicators that affect contraceptive use
among current situation in each and every aspect.
3. STUDY AREA
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Figure 3: Cartosat 2 S
The capital of Meghalaya, shillong lies on the eastern part of the state. Perched at an
altitude of 1,520 meters (4.990 feet) above sea level, the city stretches for about 6 km on
an elevated track. It is situated on a plateau bound on the north by the umiam gorge, on
the northwest by the great mass of the Diengiei hills that rise up to a height of 1,823
meters(6077 feet). Above sea level, and on the on the northeast by the hills of the
Assam Valley. The Umshyrpi and the Umkhra rivers, which finally merge and form the
umiam River, water it. Shillong is at distance of 104 km from Gawahati,295 km from
kaziranga, 578 km from siliguri and 658 km from Darjeeling.
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Shillong first became prominent in 1864, when it succeeded Cherrapunji as the district
headquarters. In 1874 it was made the capital of the new province of Assam. An
earthquake destroyed the city in 1897, necessitating its complete rebuilding. The North
East Frontier Agency’s headquarters were in Shillong until that region became the union
territory of Arunachal Pradesh in 1972. In that year Shillong became the capital of
Meghalaya, which had been newly created out of territory that was formerly within the
state of Assam.
Shillong, a popular tourist destination, is at the core of one of the largest urban areas in
northeastern India. It is an important trade centre for agricultural products and has
research stations focusing on dairy farm, fruit, and silk production. It also has the
Pasteur Institute and Medical Research Institute and is the home of North-Eastern Hill
University (founded 1973). The Barpani hydroelectric station lies a few miles to the
north. Traffic congestion is a problem in the city.
3.3. History
st
The state of Meghalaya attained full statehood status on the 21 of January, 1972, with
city of Shillong as Capital. It is a small state which is situated to the south-east of Assam.
Shillong the capital city of Meghalaya, which was planned by the British as a hill resort,
has undergone substantial change – both in character and form. A small administrative
headquarter of the erstwhile Assam State has now become a vibrant city with
commercial activity overshadowing the hill resort. Shillong has its own charm, different
from other hill stations, and presents a natural scenic beauty with waterfalls, brooks,
pine groves and gardens.
Shillong was a small village until 1864, when it became the new civil station of the khasi
and jantia hills. It remained the summer capital of Eastern Bengal and Assam for many
years. In 1874, on the formation of Assam as a chief commissioners’ Province, It was
chosen as the capital of the new administration. An earthquake destroyed the city in
1897, necessitating its complete rebuilding. In January 1972, Shillong became the capital
of the newly formed state of Meghalaya.
3.4. Climate
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Shillong is subject to vagaries of the monsoon. The monsoons arrive in June and it rains
almost until the end of August. The climate is hot and humid during summers but quite
cold during winters. October-November and March-April are the best months to visit
Shillong.
Shillong is the capital city of Meghalaya, India. It is located at 25°35′ north latitude and
91°53′ east longitude. It is about 103 km to the south of Guwahati and is located at
altitude of 1500 m. It is an agglomeration of seven urban centers, out of which only
Shillong Municipality and Shillong Cantonment urban centers were selected for this
study. The main commercial areas of the city are Bara bazar and Police bazaar,
Laitumkhrah, Polo Grounds, etc. which are situated within these two urban centers.
East Khasi Hills is an administrative district in the state of Meghalaya in India. The district
headquarters are located at Shillong. The district occupies an area of 2752 km² and has
a population of 825,922 (as of 2011). As of 2011, it is the most populous district of
Meghalaya's seven districts as we all know the former Khasi Hills district was divided
into East and West Khasi Hills districts on 28 October 1976. On 4 June 1992, East Khasi
Hills District was further divided into two administrative districts of East Khasi Hills
District and Ri-Bhoi District,
Shillong is the district headquarters of East Khasi Hills District. East Khasi Hills District
forms a central part of Meghalaya and covers a total geographical area of 2,748 km2 . It
lies approximately between 25°07" & 25°41" N Lat. And 91°21" & 92°09" E Long.
The north of the district is bounded by the plain of Ri-Bhoi District gradually rising to
the rolling grasslands of the Shillong Plateau interspersed with river valleys, then falls
sharply in the Southern portion forming a deep gorges and ravines in Mawsynram and
Shella-Bholaganj, community and rural development block, bordering Bangladesh. The
district is bounded by the Jaintia Hills District to the east and the West Khasi Hills
District to the west.
The East Khasi Hills District is mostly hilly with deep gorges and ravines on the southern
portion. The most important physiographic features of the district is the Shillong Plateau
interspersed with river valley, then fall sharply in the southern portion forming deep
gorges and ravine in Mawsynram and Shella-Bholaganj bordering Bangladesh. Shillong
peak, 10 km from the city, offers a panoramic view of the scenic country side and is also
the highest point in the district as well as in the State.
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The climate of the district ranges from temperate in the plateau region to the warmer
tropical and sub-tropical pockets on the Northern and Southern regions. The whole of
the district is influenced by the south-west monsoon, which begins generally from May
and continues till September. The weather is humid for the major portion of the year
except for the relatively dry spell usually between December and March.
According to the 2011 census, East Khasi Hills district has a population of 825, 922,
roughly equal to the nation of Comorosor the US state of South Dakota This gives it a
ranking of 478th in India (out of a total of 640 The district has a population density of
292 inhabitants per square kilometer (760/sq. mi) Its population growth rate over the
decade 2001-2011 was 24.68%. East Khasi Hills has a sex ratio of 1008 females for every
1000 males and a literacy rate of 84.7%.
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Generally, data required for any GIS could be grouped into spatial and attribute (Non
spatial) data and there are various methods for obtaining these data.
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The GPS-aided GEO augmented navigation is an implementation of a regional satellite-
based augmentation system by the Government of India. It is a system to improve the
accuracy of a GNSS receiver by providing reference signals. Wikipedia
Launched: 2001
The spatial data was obtained by taking GPS observations of the coordinate of the area,
additional data were obtained from existing digital data files from past projects.
Most of the data were obtained from field and from secondary source as government
organization. The plot such as address, purpose, height, name etc., was obtained directly
from site. This was done by going to site with paper map and identifying individual plots
on the paper map and in real world and entering in the attribute of each plot.
Advancement of technologies in Cartography, Remote sing and GIS field even the field
work become more convenient .Here, the data of households and population obtained
from the field with the help of “Gagan dongle” a Bluetooth integrated with the mobile
application for point shape file
5. Data Collection
In Statistics, the data collection is a process of gathering information from all the
relevant sources to find a solution to the research problem. It helps to evaluate the
outcome of the problem. It is the process of gathering and measuring information on
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variables of interest, in an established systematic fashion that enables one to answer
stated research questions, test hypotheses, and evaluate outcomes.
The data collection methods help a person to conclude a solution for the relevant
question. Most of the organization uses data collection methods to make assumptions
about future probabilities and trends. Once the data is collected, it is necessary to
underdo the data organization process.
Primary data or raw data is a type of information that is obtained directly from the first-
hand source through experiments, surveys, or observations.
• The data sets used in study includes Remote Sensing Data. Based on available
satellite CARTOSAT2S PAN (2019) Image with resolution of 0.6 (m) were used for
extracting features.
• Features Extraction:
After Acquisition of satellite data the foremost task was to extract the various
features from the image. For extraction ArcGIS was used to extract features like
Roads, buildings by Digitization (Onscreen Digitization) scale on unit (1:4000)
Secondary data is typically quantitative in nature and has already been collected by
another party for a different purpose. Here, I have used the data provide by census of
India for shillong Socio economic planning Census Data-2001-2011for understanding
the excising population of Urban Agglomeration, East khasi hills, RI – Bhoi district and
the census town using the population and household data from 2001 and 2011, as
shown in Table : 5.2.1, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, and 5.2.5.
Needs Data Collection with the help of data collection techniques primary and
secondary sources by prepare suitable questionnaires for different surveys such as
Socio – economic, Land use/utilization, Density, Infrastructure and Transportation
surveys going to include after that for analysis we are going to use some analytical
techniques such as Applying Carrying Capacity for Urban and Regional planning
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,Threshold analysis , Population projection, Economic projection and Assessment of
requirement housing and finally for creating map need to label map scale, Information
checklist and procedure of collecting data and finally focusing towards Base map and
Development of plan preparation with the help of remote sensing and GIS technique.
Table: 5.2 1
Population 2011
Population 2001
Urban Agglomeration
Urban Agglomeration
East khasi Hills
East khasi Hills
Ri - Bhoi Ri - Bhoi
Shillong Municipal Board Shillong Municipal Board
Census Town
25%
23% .
, 29%
. 19% .
1% 46% 7%
5% 44%
1%
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5. Mawpat (CT) 823 4663 114 6184
6. Umpling (CT) 1579 9796 1814 8529
7. Nongthymmai (CT) 7287 34292 8691 38004
8. Madanriting (CT) 3220 16318 5949 29194
9. Nongkseh (CT) 892 4931 982 4846
10. Umlyngka (CT) 855 4696 1450 7381
11. Lawsohtun (CT) 1321 6386 1623 8214
Table: 5.2.2
S,No Ri - Bhoi District 2001 (HH/TP) 2011 (HH/TP)
1. Wahmyntait 18 94 28 129
2. Umiam Hydel Project D 214 934 161 820
3. Lumsohphoh 223 1226 51 264
4. Lumshyiap 49 234 50 248
5. Kyrdeng 56 234 60 290
6. Madan Nonglakhiat 66 364 138 663
7. Mahmawdkuk 22 133 38 208
8. Mawiong 39 276 136 768
9. Mawthei 73 417 109 625
10. Nongsder 109 587 539 2879
11. Pyllun 152 639 156 891
12. Syllei-U-Lar 48 249 58 310
13. Umsarang 9 52 104 501
14. Umiet 70 376 161 757
Table: 5.2.3
1% 1%
Ri - Bhoi 100% 6% Ri - Bhoi
100% 5% .
.
45% 44%
Shillong Municipal Shillong Municipal
Board Board
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4. Ward No.4 625 2995 589 2753
5. Ward No.5 726 3413 1115 4908
6. Ward No.6 1541 7494 1053 4888
7. Ward No.7 989 4753 1108 4891
8. Ward No.8 857 4261 1301 6009
9. Ward No.9 247 1529 420 2145
10. Ward No.10 957 4988 1212 5766
11. Ward No.11 830 4536 978 4863
12. Ward No.12 449 2173 608 2797
13. Ward No.13 1240 6027 1213 5337
14. Ward No.14 985 4901 691 3032
15. Ward No.15 706 3547 752 3838
16. Ward No.16 519 2667 783 4067
17. Ward No.17 629 3375 621 3270
18. Ward No.18 962 5189 764 3875
19. Ward No.19 1084 5431 967 4556
20. Ward No.20 1681 8900 2118 10613
21. Ward No.21 2457 12052 2865 14009
22. Ward No.22 735 3589 675 2973
23. Ward No.23 799 3703 1865 8161
24. Ward No.24 955 4501 842 3568
25. Ward No.25 634 3139 1206 5218
26. Ward No.26 1498 7278 1372 6319
27. Ward No.27 877 4148 1172 5133
Table: 5.2.4
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7. Mawdiang Diang 28 150 162 714
8. Mawtawar 191 1062 511 2922
9. Nongsawing 325 1602 22 130
10. Itshyrwat 26 147 30 150
11. Nongrah 757 3971 1476 7316
12. Nongumlong 176 970 295 1554
13. 3 1/2 Mile 181 934 285 1387
14. 4 Th. Mile 144 791 89 471
15. 5th Mile 209 1306 271 1516
16. Nongpiur 177 1007 153 841
17. Mawklot 268 1465 346 1821
18. 6th Mile Farm 108 577 92 479
19. Laitkor Mawri 94 551 316 1727
20. Syllai-U-Lor 88 493 117 589
21. Mawnarian 55 297 67 375
22. Mawpynthih 332 1835 454 2518
23. Mawkasiang 89 528 98 650
24. Lumdiengsai 50 295 76 437
25. Lumkseh 57 280 78 412
26. Mawkynring 23 481 32 648
27. Mawpdang 179 1009 330 1614
28. Mawkhanu 40 195 56 293
29. Mawsharoh 5 29 7 40
30. Nongtyrkhang 44 263 83 459
31. Lumdiengngan 55 298 68 400
32. Laitkor Rngi 413 2140 318 1602
33. Mawnianglah 166 806 894 3929
34. Laitkor Lumheh 213 1111 837 4146
35. Madan Football 35 196 49 274
36. Nongsder 84 435 110 602
37. Lapalang 240 1492 895 6045
38. Madan Saisiej 59 319 78 428
39. Mawkynroh Umshing 202 979 534 2582
Table: 5.2.5
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Figure: 2.1 Population density 2001
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Figure: 2.2
Statistical Information of Household map 2001
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Figure: 2.3 Population density 2011
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Figure: 2.4 Household map 2011
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Table : 2.1 Statistical Information of Population Density 2001
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Table: 2.3 Statistical Information of Population Density 2011
6. Data processing
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6.1. Population Projection
Government policymakers and planners around the world use population projections to
gauge future demand for food, water, energy, and services, and to forecast future
demographic characteristics. Population projections can alert policymakers to major
trends that may affect economic development and help policymakers craft policies that
can be adapted for various projection scenarios.
High birth rates in cities are sometimes driven by higher birth rates from migrant
populations.
Increased immigration to shillong and especially to urban areas (e.g. core cities) as well
as areas of seasonal employment (e.g. Lincolnshire) has driven population increases.
Certain areas are experiencing out-migration of young people and other areas have
seen an influx of older people following retirement leading to an ageing population
Projections depend on more detailed information in which the projected value is often t
he dependent variable derived from projections of independent variables. Generally spe
aking, analytical methods are to be preferred over simple ones since it
allows accounting for or assuming differing patterns of change in the components of a
situation; this usually leads to more accurate results than is the case with simple projecti
ons.
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For population projection I have used geometric mean method as it provide approx.
value as campare to other methods in this method the percentage increase in
population from decade to decade is assumed to remain constant. Geometric mean
increase is used to find out the future increment in population. Since this method gives
higher values and hence should be applied for a new industrial town at the beginning of
development for only few decades. The population at the end of nth decade ‘Pn’ can be
estimated as
Formula
r n
Pn=Po[1+ ]
100
n = Decade of population asked for subtract by the last known decade of population.
Table: 6.2.1
With the help of this formula in our study we are going to predict the future
population and Household of 2021 and 2031 of shillong area . There are end
numbers of Formulas for forecasting but here,I have used the above mentioned
formula as it gave an approx. value.
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S. No Urban Agglomeration 2021 (TP/HH) 2031 (TP/HH)
1. Shillong Municipality 134,075 35,740 279,322 39,349
2. Shillong Cantonment 15,451 2,475 17,246 2,476
3. Nongthymmai 55572 10364 70741 11693
4. Mawlai 58610 16524 72500 22582
5. Madanrting 52872 10987 95151 17187
6. Pynthorumukhrah 56607 7488 79243 8991
7. Nongmysong 18923 4555 22581 5785
Table: 6.2.2
.
.
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3. Pynthormukhrah (CT 7487 33498 8988 38646
4. Nongmynsong (CT) 4555 19831 8245 24068
5. Mawpat (CT) 1590 8199 2003 9980
6. Umpling (CT) 2083 9631 2289 10460
7. Nongthymmai (CT) 10364 42116 11693 45152
8. Madanriting (CT) 10987 52245 17183 79741
9. Nongkseh (CT) 1080 4929 1152 4985
10. Umlyngka (CT) 2457 11595 3594 16001
11. Lawsohtun (CT) 1994 10565 2297 12560
S,No Ri - Bhoi District 2021 ( HH/TP) 2031( HH/TP)
Table: 6.2.3
1. Wahmyntait 43 117 58 220
2. Umiam Hydel Project D 200 920 232 994
3. Lumsohphoh 90 471 136 1209
4. Lumshyiap 51 262 52 272
5. Kyrdeng 64 359 66 415
6. Madan Nonglakhiat 288 1207 496 1867
7. Mahmawdkuk 65 325 96 446
8. Mawiong 474 2136 1253 4673
9. Mawthei 162 936 214 1246
10. Nongsder 2664 14118 9666 50853
11. Pyllun 160 1242 162 1568
12. Syllei-U-Lar 70 385 79 447
13. Umsarang 1201 4691 9646 30843
14. Umiet 370 1523 690 2551
45% 10%
Shillong Municipal 4% 12% Shillong Municipal
Board Board
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4. Ward No.4 622 2975 645 3135
5. Ward No.5 1712 7057 2323 9116
6. Ward No.6 1392 6587 1690 8113
7. Ward No.7 1241 5032 1340 5128
8. Ward No.8 2065 8413 2825 10684
9. Ward No.9 714 3009 1062 4301
10. Ward No.10 1534 6664 1805 7355
11. Ward No.11 1152 5212 1288 5461
12. Ward No.12 823 3584 1017 4262
13. Ward No.13 1239 5947 1256 6400
14. Ward No.14 897 4188 1075 5252
15. Ward No.15 800 4152 834 4378
16. Ward No.16 1181 6201 1581 8370
17. Ward No.17 628 3371 633 3440
18. Ward No.18 2134 4856 4684 5675
19. Ward No.19 1071 5289 1147 5856
20. Ward No.20 2668 10633 3129 11982
21. Ward No.21 3340 16282 3709 18042
22. Ward No.22 730 3483 769 3615
23. Ward No.23 4371 17978 8269 32389
24. Ward No.24 941 4307 1014 4901
25. Ward No.25 2293 8672 3671 12496
26. Ward No.26 1487 7151 1570 7778
27. Ward No.27 1565 6352 1941 7357
Table: 6.2.5
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11. Nongrah 13478 2896 4753 21025
12. Nongumlong 2489 492 712 3487
13. 3 1/2 Mile 2059 448 619 2724
14. 4 Th. Mile 661 122 153 838
15. 5th Mile 1759 351 420 1947
16. Nongpiur 979 173 188 1086
17. Mawklot 2263 446 532 2629
18. 6th Mile Farm 560 105 115 623
19. Laitkor Mawri 5394 1062 2732 13040
20. Syllai-U-Lor 703 155 188 794
21. Mawnarian 473 81 92 555
22. Mawpynthih 3451 620 771 6797
23. Mawkasiang 800 107 113 923
24. Lumdiengsai 647 115 154 1268
25. Lumkseh 606 106 131 796
26. Mawkynring 872 44 55 1073
27. Mawpdang 2580 608 949 3609
28. Mawkhanu 817 78 98 1791
29. Mawsharoh 55 9 11 69
30. Nongtyrkhang 800 156 247 1196
31. Lumdiengngan 536 84 94 657
32. Laitkor Rngi 2004 391 450 2339
33. Mawnianglah 19122 4814 18885 68399
34. Laitkor Lumheh 15468 3288 9706 43616
35. Madan Football 383 68 85 484
36. Nongsder 833 143 172 1046
37. Lapalang 24488 3337 9407 74272
38. Madan Saisiej 573 103 125 731
39. Mawkynroh Umshing 6808 1411 2934 14235
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Figure: 2.5 Population Density Map 2021
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Figure: 2.6 Household Map 2021
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Figure: 2.7 Population Density Map 2031
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Figure: 2.8 Household Map 2031
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Table: 2.5 Statistical information of Population density 2021
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Table: 2.7 Statistical Information of Population density 2031
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6.3. Model Builder
Model Builder is an application you use to create, edit, and manage models. Models are
workflows that string together sequences of geoprocessing tools, feeding the output of
one tool into another tool as input. Model Builder can also be thought of as a visual
programming language for building workflows.
This model clips Soils with the Study Area polygon, adds a new field, then calculates a value for the new field.
While Model Builder is very useful for constructing and executing simple workflows, it
also provides advanced methods for extending ArcGIS functionality by allowing you to
create and share your models as tool.
Model Builder can even be used to integrate ArcGIS with other applications. An example
is provided below:
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Example: Figure 4 model builder
The above model is used by a municipality to send e-mail notifications to all addresses
within 1 mile of an address for which a building permit application is filed. The model
starts with a feature class of multiple permit application point locations. This feature
class is fed into an iterator that loops over each individual point and feeds the point into
the Select Layer by Location tool, where all addresses (parcels) within 1 mile of the
point are selected. These addresses are then passed to a custom script tool (one that
you or your colleague created), Generate Mailing List, that executes Python code to
output a mailing list in HTML format. Finally, the mailing list is fed to another custom
script tool, Send Email Notifications, which runs a custom executable that sends e-mail
notifications and produces a success code.
The benefits of Model Builder can be summarized as follows:
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6.4. Multiple Ring Buffer (Analysis)
Creates multiple buffers at specified distances around the input features. These buffers
can optionally be merged and dissolved using the buffer distance values to create non-
overlapping buffers.
Illustration
Usage
The Buffer Unit parameter is ignored if the Input Features do not have a
defined spatial reference
If the Dissolve Option ALL is used, the output feature class will contain one
feature for each distance specified in the Distances parameter (all buffers the
same distance from the Input Features will be dissolved).
The tool creates intermediate data which is written to the location specified in
the Scratch workspace environment setting. If the Scratch workspace
environment is not set, the temporary data is written to the location defined
by the TEMP system variable.
This tool is a Python script tool. The script can be viewed by right-clicking the
tool and selecting Edit.
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Calculates, for each cell, the Euclidean distance to the closest source.
Illustration
For Example:
Example: Figure 6
Usage
When the input source data is a raster, the set of source cells consists of all
cells in the source raster that have valid values. Cells that have No Data values
are not included in the source set. The value 0 is considered a legitimate
source. A source raster can be easily created using the extraction tools.
When the input source data is a feature class, the source locations are
converted internally to a raster before performing the analysis. The resolution
of the raster can be controlled with the Output cell size parameter or the
Cell Size environment. By default, the resolution will be determined by the
shorter of the width or height of the extent of input feature, in the input
spatial reference, divided by 250.
When using polygon feature data for the input source data, care must be
taken with how the output cell size is handled when it is coarse, relative to the
detail present in the input. The internal rasterization process employs the
same default Cell assignment type method as the Polygon to Raster tool,
which is CELL_CENTER. This means that data not located at the center of the
cell will not be included in the intermediate rasterized source output, and so
will not be represented in the distance calculations. For example, if your
sources are a series of small polygons, such as building footprints, that are
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small relative to the output cell size, it is possible that only a few of them will
fall under the centers of the output raster cells, seemingly causing most of
the others to be lost in the analysis.
To avoid this situation, as an intermediate step, you could rasterize the input
features directly with the Polygon to Raster tool and set a Priority field, and
use the resulting output as input to the Distance tool. Alternatively, you could
select a small enough cell size to capture the appropriate amount of detail
from the input features.
The Maximum distance is specified in the same map units as the input
source data.
If a Mask has been set in the environment and the cells to be masked will
mask a source, the Euclidean calculations will occur on the remaining source
cells. The source cells that are masked will not be considered in the
computations. These cell locations will be assigned NoData on the output
raster.
The No Data values created by the masked cells are ignored in the
calculations on non-source cell locations. The Euclidean distance for cells
behind No Data values is calculated as if the No Data value is not present.
Any cell location that is assigned No Data because of the mask on the input
surface will receive No Data on all the output raster.
Overlays several raster using a common measurement scale and weights each according
to its importance.
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Illustration
For Example:
Figure 7
In the illustration, the two input raster have been reclassified to a common measurement scale of 1 to 3. Each
raster is assigned a percentage influence. The cell values are multiplied by their percentage influence, and the
results are added together to create the output raster. For example, consider the upper left cell. The values for
the two inputs become (2 * 0.75) = 1.5 and (3 * 0.25) = 0.75. The sum of 1.5 and 0.75 is 2.25. Because the
output raster from Weighted Overlay is integer, the final value is rounded to 2.
Usage
• Slope
• Government
Processing of field Data
property Figure 8
• Educational
Institutes
Site Suitability Analysis
• Hospitals
• Green Area
Weighted Overlay
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Figure: 9
Suitable sites for Health service: Analyzing suitable sites for health services in year
2021 and 2031 by using following parameters as existing Health service, Roads,
River, Green area, Government property, slope and the projected year population
data 2021 and 2031.
Suitable site for Educational service: Analyzing suitable sites for Educational
services in year 2021 and 2031 by using following parameters as existing
educational service, Roads, River, Green area, Government property, slope and the
projected year population data 2021 and 2031.
After overlaying these parameter will come with the exact result according to the
projected population variation among the area of shillong, and able to predict the
suitable sites for Health and educational future based service facility.
Model builder has been created in ArcGIS, Buffer has been done for existing sites
for Government property, Green areas, Health services, Euclidean classification
has been done for existing sites of River Lines and Roads and then result is
reclassified in 10 classes of equal interval, classes 1to 5 are prioritized from 1 to 5
according to distance which suitable to maintain with existing sites for suitable
sites, further classes 6 to 10 are restricted in Weighted overlay.
Slope of the area is generated from CartoDEM and is clipped according to study
area boundary of shillong. Slopes of the region range from 0.8 degrees to 72
degree, reclassification of slopes is then done in 10 equal classes, classes 1to 5
are given equal priority of 1 in weighted overlay whereas classes 5 to 10 are
restricted
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Included all types of roads which are extracted from the roads shape file of
Meghalaya wards, then Euclidean distance is calculated in 10 equal intervals, and
further reclassification is done for the same. Classes 1 to 5 i.e. up to a distance of
2km from the road are given priority from 1 to 5 whereas classes 5 to 10 are
restricted in weighted overlay.
River line of category ‘Main’ are extracted from water line shapefile, and
Euclidean classification for the same has been done. Result is then reclassified
into 10 equal intervals, classes 1to 5(0 to 1.7 km) are given priority from 1 to 5
whereas classes 5 to 10 are restricted in weighted overlay.
For existing Educational and health Service, same process is repeated and classes
1 to 5 (up to a distance of 2.5km) are restricted and classes 5 to 10 are prioritizes
as 5 to 1 i.e. more priority is given to location farther from existing Educational
and health service sites.
By using projected Population 2021 and 2031 same process is repeated for them,
after reclassifying it in weighted overlay, in this case classes 1 to 5 are prioritized
as 1 to 5 whereas classes 5 to 10 are restricted.
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Figure.10: Model 1
Mapping
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Figure 10.1: Reclassified Health service Buffer Figure 10.2: Reclassified Population 2021
Figure 10.3: Reclassified Government property Buffer Figure 10.4: Reclassified Green Area Buffer
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Figure 10.5: Reclassified Euclidean Distance Figure 10.6: Reclassified Euclidean
of River Line Distance of Road
Figure 10.7: Reclassified Shillong Slope Figure 10.8: Weighted overlay for Health service
2021 and providing a suitable site for new service.
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7.2. 2031 health services
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Figure 11.1: Reclassified Government property Buffer Figure 11.2: Reclassified Green Area Buffer
Figure 11.3: Reclassified Health service Buffer Figure 11.4: Reclassified Population 2031
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Figure 11.5: Reclassified Euclidean Distance Figure 11.6: Reclassified Euclidean Distance
of River Line of Road
Figure 11.7: Reclassified Shillong Slope Figure 11.8: Weighted overlay for Health service
2031 and providing a suitable site or
new service
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7.1. Educational services
2021
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Figure 12.1: Reclassified Educational service Buffer Figure 12.2: Reclassified Green Area Buffer
Figure 12.3: Reclassified Government property Buffer Figure12.4: Reclassified Population 2021
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Figure 12.5: Reclassified Euclidean Distance Figure 12.6: Reclassified Euclidean Distance
of River Line of Road
Figure 12.7: Reclassified Shillong Slope Figure12.8: Weighted overlay for Educational service
2021 and providing a suitable site or new
Service
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7.2. 2031 education services
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Figure 13.1: Reclassified Educational service Figure 13.2: Reclassified Government property
Buffer Buffer
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Figure 13.3: Reclassified Green Area Buffer Figure 13.4: Reclassified Population 2031
Figure 13.5: Reclassified Euclidean Distance Figure 13.6: Reclassified Euclidean Distance
of River Line of Road
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Figure 13.7: Reclassified Shillong Slope Figure 13.8: Weighted overlay for Educational 2031
8. Conclusion
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Centre
Family Welfare 5,000 5 to 10 0.025 to 0.050
Centre
Maternity 15,000 5 to 10 0.025 to 0.050
Home
Nursing Home 15,000 5 to 10 0.050 to 0.075
Primary Health 20,000 16 to 20 0.105 to 0.210
Centre (25 to
50
beds)
Hospital (200 80,000 16 to 20 0.840 to 2.100
to 250 beds)
On the basis of major product and knowledge which we are going to gain through this
independent study it’s possible to the work can be carried forward and have some
productive outcomes even on the basis of table 1.10 the expected outcomes for suitable
sites are going to serve proper resources among projected population so, that it will
easier to maintain a futuristic productive work such as :
Which able to predict how the creation of an integrated Governance body with equal
representation takes place.
Which able to predict Innovative approach to infrastructure development
Improving Service Delivery and comfort level to the citizens.
Improved Tourist infrastructure
Reducing Carbon foot print and harnessing of Non-renewable sources
Recreational facilities, development of green spaces.
Major infrastructures like major roads, water supply lines, sewage channels, power
lines and other basic infrastructure to be developed.
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The prediction of future Planning norms, land use zoning, density, FAR, and building
controls have been reviewed for housing, both in new areas to be opened up and for
redevelopment of existing areas. In the context of housing strategy, it is essential to
optimize utilization of land and space with a view to increasing net residential
density.
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