Milner 1992
Milner 1992
Milner 1992
http://journals.cambridge.org/WPO
Helen Milner
INTERNATIONAL THEORIES OF
COOPERATION AMONG NATIONS
Strengths and Weaknesses
By HELEN MILNER*
* I would like to thank David Baldwin, Robert Jervis, and Robert Keohane for their
helpful comments.
1
See, e.g., Stephen Krasner, ed., International Regimes (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University
Press, 1983); Robert Keohane, After Hegemony (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984);
Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation (New York: Basic Books, 1984); Robert Put-
nam and Nicholas Bayne, Hanging Together, 2d ed. (Cambridge: Harvard University Press,
1987); Yoichi Funabashi, Managing the Dollar, 2d ed. (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Inter-
national Economics, 1989); Martin Feldstein, International Economic Cooperation (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1988); Charles Lipson, "International Cooperation in Economic
and Security Affairs," World Politics 37 (October 1984); Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under
the Security Dilemma," World Politics 30 (January 1978); Duncan Snidal, "Cooperation ver-
sus Prisoners' Dilemma," American Political Science Review 79 (December 1985); idem, "The
Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory," International Organization 34 (Autumn 1985); Jeffrey
Frankel and Katherine Rockett, "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When
Policy-Makers Do Not Agree on the Model," American Economic Review 78 (June 1988);
William Buiter and Richard Marston, International Economic Coordination (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 1985); Michael Taylor, The Possibility of Cooperation (Cam-
bridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Harrison Wagner, "The Theory of Games and
the Problem of International Cooperation," American Political Science Review 70 (June 1983);
John Conybeare, Trade Wars (New York: Columbia University Press, 1987); Oran Young,
International Cooperation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989).
Up to some point, then, more players may not necessarily hinder coop-
eration.
Second, the number of actors may not be a structural condition but
rather may be a strategic one that can be manipulated by the actors them-
selves. In such cases, situations involving large numbers can be broken
down into situations involving smaller numbers. As Lipson shows in his
article in Cooperation under Anarchy, due to the asymmetries in the size
of the various actors and in their influence, the many creditor banks were
able to coordinate their actions by splitting the negotiations over resched-
uling into parts; they thus reduced the number of creditors negotiating
with the debtors. There are, as well, other means to reduce the problems
stemming from large numbers.17
Third, as recent work in game theory shows, the possibility of coop-
eration in a relative gains environment can be enhanced by increasing
the number of players. Snidal argues that it is probably more dangerous
to suffer a loss in a world with fewer actors than in one with more play-
ers, since "more actors enhance the possibilities of protecting oneself
through forming coalitions and, generally, the less well united one's en-
emies, the safer one is."18 Concerns over relative losses can be attenuated
in a multilateral setting. These three points suggest that the relationship
between the number of actors and cooperation may be quite complex.
The logic linking the two is still not well understood and has not been
examined much empirically.
ITERATION HYPOTHESIS
A third hypothesis explaining cooperation focuses on the players' expec-
tations about the future. Their willingness to cooperate is influenced by
whether they believe they will continue to interact indefinitely. Many
have shown that adding repeated play (iteration) to the PD game makes
the cooperative outcome more likely,19 as, over time, the value of contin-
ued cooperation comes to outweigh the benefits of defection at any one
time. This depends, of course, on the rate at which the players discount
anticipated gains: the more heavily the future is discounted, the less
likely is cooperation.20 While some game-theoretic models and experi-
17
The principal supplier rule in GATT negotiations is an example.
18
Snidal (fn. 9), 716.
19
Iteration in different games has different effects. In a game of Chicken, it may not
promote cooperation.
20
Axelrod (fn. 1) and Snidal (fn. 9) show through simulation how increasing discount rates
makes the PD game more conflictual and cooperation less likely.
Robert Telser has shown (1) that even without reciprocity an agreement can be self-en-
forcing—that is, no outside party is needed to enforce it—"as long as each party believes
himself to be better off by continuing the agreement than he would be by ending it" and (2)
THEORIES OF COOPERATION 475
that this occurs when two conditions are met: the sequence of interactions has no final ele-
ment and the future discount rate is low enough. See Telser, "A Theory of Self-Enforcing
Agreements," Journal ofBusiness 53, no. 1 (1980), 27.
21
Keohane (fn. 1), 90.
476 WORLD POLITICS
regime literature has also been attacked for its inattention to power is-
sues. The distribution of power internationally is seen as underlying re-
gimes and as being responsible for changes in them. A recent critic states:
For a very large class of global issues, . . . power needs to be given pride
of place. . . . Neoliberal speculations about the positive consequences of
greater information are fascinating (even if empirical demonstrations of
such benefits are scarce). But they obscure considerations of relative power
capabilities, which draw attention to how the payoff matrix was structured
in the first place, how the available options are constrained, who can play
the game, and, ultimately, who wins and who loses.22
Given their concerns about relative position, states are likely to disagree
about the amount of information they will release to others and about
the principles that define the regime. The latter principles determine
how the regime imposes costs and benefits on different actions. Thus, the
provision of information and the structure of transaction costs are highly
political issues.
This said, it is noteworthy that even the critics of the regime hypoth-
esis agree with its central points. Grieco critiques Keohane's arguments
about regimes by examining international trade negotiations conducted
within the existing trade regime, the GATT. He details disagreements over
trade rules regarding the provision of information. Clearly, states see
provision of information as a key political issue, but it is also apparent
that regimes can provide much information and this can be influential,
as the fears of some states reveal. For instance, in considering the un-
willingness of the EC to cooperate within GATT, Grieco explains that "as a
result of the rules all would enjoy some level of absolute gains in terms
of increased information about one another's subsidies, but non-Euro-
pean Community states would receive greater information about Euro-
pean Community programs than the reverse" (pp. 218-19). Again, a bal-
anced exchange of information is critical because reciprocity enhances
the likelihood of cooperation. In his conclusion Grieco echoes Keohane,
showing how the informational functions of the GATT promote coopera-
tion. Through "periodic reviews and safeguard clauses" in the GATT,
"states can seek redress to problems connected with the balance of rights
and obligations of membership," such a balance being necessary for co-
operative agreement. The GATT also provides for "periodic reviews and
renegotiation efforts," which serve as "voice alternatives . . . [making
22
Stephen D. Krasner, "Global Communications and National Power: Life on the Pareto
Frontier," World Politics 43 (April 1991), 366.
THEORIES OF COOPERATION 477
states] more willing to join such arrangements in the first place and, if
problems do arise, to remain loyal to them" (p. 234).
Haas, while hardly mentioning regimes, notes repeatedly the impor-
tance of the provision of information by other international organiza-
tions in the establishment of the Med Plan and later by the Med Plan
itself. Initially, members of the UN (the UN Environmental Program
[UNEP]) provided information that fostered cooperation: "By publicizing
the problem of marine pollution UNEP helped persuade Mediterranean
governments of the importance of accepting the new goal of environ-
mental protection, and even making nominal economic sacrifices to ac-
complish it" (p. 167). Later, the Med Plan developed its own information
functions: "States did come to appreciate the value of information and
diplomatic channels established by the Med Plan, and cooperated in areas
in which such benefits were made available" (p. 183).23 The role played
by the information-provision function of regimes in fostering coopera-
tion thus seems to be affirmed even by critics of the argument.
In addition, there is empirical evidence that regimes can reduce trans-
action costs for states negotiating collaborative agreements. Grieco, for
example, focuses on the EC as a major international actor in the GATT
negotiations. Indeed, it is surprising to find a "realist" taking the position
that an international organization like the EC can be an actor comparable
to nation-states like the U.S. and Japan, but clearly that is Grieco's view.
The existence of the EC lowered transaction costs by reducing the num-
ber of actors involved. Haas notes similarly that the "Med Plan also
served to reduce transaction costs between governments [by] holding an-
nual intergovernmental meetings and more frequent expert meetings"
(pp. 184-85).
The notion that regimes facilitate cooperation is lent some credence
by the books under review. But can the regime hypothesis tell us any-
thing about the tacit or explicit bargaining that occurs when cooperation
is initiated? If the cooperative agreement is made prior to the establish-
ment of the regime, then it cannot help. If, however, an established re-
gime in one issue-area aids in the negotiation of cooperation in another,
then the regime hypothesis may have broader significance. And if bal-
anced or reciprocal agreements are the key to successful cooperation,
then the functions of regimes that promote such balance may be impor-
tant. Keohane suggests one such function:
23
Haas claims later that this information-provision function was superseded as the pri-
mary function of the Med Plan regime (p. 185).
478 WORLD POLITICS
The nesting pattern of international regimes affects transaction costs by
making it easier or more difficult to link particular issues and to arrange
side-payments, giving someone something on one issue in return for help
on another. Clustering of issues under a regime facilitates side-payments
among these issues: more potential quids are available for the quo. Without
international regimes linking clusters of issues to one another side-pay-
ments and linkages would be difficult to arrange in world politics.24
Regimes then may promote the negotiation of balanced agreements, and
hence cooperation, in new areas through the issue linkage and side-pay-
ments they make available. This type of facilitation is evident in Haas's
study. The UN, through its UNEP, made side-payments to states that
would have to pay high costs in the Med Plan to get them to agree to
start the regime. Through "its principle of geographic distribution" of
rewards, the UNEP helped states find a balanced agreement as the basis
for the Med Plan (p. 79). Regimes in one issue-area may thus promote
cooperation elsewhere by allowing states to link issues in their search for
a balanced distribution of the costs and benefits of cooperation. This hy-
pothesis, like the others, calls for more empirical evaluation.
cation is often essential to indicate what the payoff structures are and
what cooperation means. Gowa, Jervis, and Larson have pointed out that
without a common understanding of these elements, countries are likely
to end up in an escalating feud if they try to play Tit-for-Tat.30 Com-
munication, if it includes deception and persuasion, may make the game
nastier than noncooperative PD and may lead to reversed conclusions
about the benefits of reciprocity.
The argument that maximizing absolute gains flows from anarchy is
also suspect, as Gowa, Jervis, and Grieco note.31 States may focus on rel-
ative gains instead; they may be motivated by envy. Whether they are
egoistic or envious has little to do with whether the system is anarchic.
Moreover, both envy and egoism motivate actors within states, where
anarchy supposedly does not reign. The assumption of anarchy, em-
ployed to make the argument systemic, is accompanied by a series of
other assumptions, most of which flow from game theory and few of
which are systemic. Most tellingly, the solution to Axelrod's cooperation
problem at the systemic level—that is, reciprocity—is also the solution
to the cooperation problem among actors within states. As Alvin Gould-
ner noted thirty years ago, reciprocity is the fundamental cement that
holds society together.32
Grieco starts from the same systemic assumption as do Axelrod and
the Cooperation under Anarchy volume, but he proceeds to make a differ-
ent argument. For him, international politics is anarchic, but it is fun-
damentally about relative gains. As he stresses:
States are fundamentally concerned about their physical survival and their
political independence^ which] both result from and depend upon a state's
own efforts and thus its relative capabilities. As a result, states want to
know what the impact will be of virtually any relationship on their relative
defensive capabilities: hence the realist insight that states in anarchy are
generally defensive positionalists. Defensive positionalism, in turn, gener-
ates a relative-gains problem for cooperation: a state will decline to join,
will leave, or will sharply limit its commitment to a cooperative arrange-
ment if it believes that gaps in otherwise mutually positive gains favor
partners, (p. 10)
Grieco's argument has several steps, which he implies form a logical pro-
gression. In an anarchic world (1) states fear for their lives: this fear
means (2) that they can depend only upon their own capabilities to sur-
vive, (3) that changes in one's capabilities relative to other states are a
30
Gowa (fn. 7); cites in fn. 14; Robert Jervis, "Realism, Game Theory, and Cooperation,"
World Politics 40 (April 1988), 334-35; Grieco.
31
Gowa (fn. 7); Jervis (fn. 30); Grieco.
32
Gouldner, "The Norm of Reciprocity," American Sociological Review 25 (April 1960).
THEORIES OF COOPERATION 483
state's central concern, and finally (4) that states will not accept coopera-
tive agreements that are relatively unfavorable since this reduces their
security.
For Grieco, anarchy implies a Hobbesian worldview. States are liter-
ally seen in a state of war of all against all. States constantly fear for their
survival and see others as trying to dominate or destroy them. An "ab-
solutely necessary effect of anarchy [is] the danger states perceive that
others might seek to destroy or enslave them" (pp. 49-50). This is an
extreme depiction of the state's vulnerability in the international system.
Many have noted that states, being larger and more highly differentiated
institutions, have much less to fear in an anarchic situation than do in-
dividuals. The argument about interpersonal relations used by Hobbes
is stretched in the international context. The acuteness of states' insecu-
rity varies substantially as a function of conditions other than a lack of
common government. Jervis discusses a number of these conditions.
The fear of being exploited (that is, the cost of CD) most strongly drives the
security dilemma; one of the main reasons why international life is not
more nasty, brutish, and short is that states are not as vulnerable as men
are in a state of nature. . . . The easier it is to destroy a state, the greater
reason for it either to join a larger and more secure unit, or else to be
especially suspicious of others. . . . By contrast, if the costs of CD are lower
they can afford to take a more relaxed view of threats.33
The degree of fear states have for their survival varies importantly from
and independently of the lack of common authority.34 The more preva-
lent are conditions that mitigate states' vulnerabilities, the less germane
will be Grieco's argument.
Robert Powell further develops this point in a formal model.35 He
maintains that the assumption of relative versus absolute gains is less
important than the structural conditions facing states. The critical factor
is the cost of using force in the international system. If the costs are low,
then relative gains predominate and cooperation is unlikely. Such a sit-
uation creates opportunities for states to exploit relative gains to their
advantage. And when combined with anarchy (that is, when there is no
common government to ensure states will not exploit these advantages)
cooperative behavior is underminded. Where force is costly, relative
gains cannot be exploited, and cooperation will emerge, even in the pres-
33
Jervis (fn. 1), 172.
34
This is true domestically as well; with a common authority, the vulnerability of individ-
uals varies greatly. Living in New York City and living in Princeton, New Jersey, provide
different levels of security.
35
Powell, "The Problem of Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations The-
ory" American Political Science Review (forthcoming).
484 WORLD POLITICS
ence of anarchy. The assumption of anarchy then does not imply relative
or absolute gains. Rather, anarchy is a constant, while other systemic
constraints vary. According to Powell:
The general problem confronting a state in this system is one of con-
strained optimization in which the units are trying to maximize their ab-
solute level of economic welfare subject to a set of constraints in which a
unit's current relative gain may be translated to a future absolute gain for
that unit and future absolute loss for the other units.36
This is one way of reconciling the arguments about absolute and relative
gains, but it does not explain Grieco's cases, where force is not a relevant
concern. The general point, though, is still valid: where conditions mit-
igate a state's sense of vulnerability, relative gains should matter less—
even in the presence of anarchy.
Next, Grieco argues, states must depend on their own capabilities, on
self-help: no state can afford to depend on any other, for "today's ally
[can] become tomorrow's enemy" (p. 47). Is self-help the best way to
preserve one's security in anarchy? Not, it seems, once more than two
actors are admitted to the model. With three actors in the system, coop-
eration between two may be far more efficacious than going it alone.
Indeed, balance of power theories based on anarchy predict this: states
will cooperate to counterbalance others whose relative power is growing.
In Grieco's two-person model cooperation is difficult; as Snidal shows,
however, the addition of more players increases the likelihood that
groups will cooperate to enhance their security. Indeed, the relative gains
of your allies in this situation may enhance your own security. Further-
more, failure to cooperate may have devastating consequences. If you
refuse to work with others, they may work together and gain even
greater relative advantages over you than they might otherwise.
This point casts doubt on the third step in Grieco's argument: that
fear of others and the necessity for self-help create a situation in which
the relative gains of others are always a cause for concern. Relative gains,
he argues, are not the only concern, but they are always central. States
must be "defensive positionalists" first and foremost.
Each party's interests may appear to be opposed on specific items, but the
values and priorities underlying the set of issues often provide the basis for
cooperation.. . . [T]here are various ways of achieving [an agreement that
satisfies the more basic interests of all parties], including formulating pack-
age deals that involve conceding on issues of low priority in exchange for
reciprocal concessions on more important issues, logrolling, fractionating
larger issues into smaller segments. 39
situation a country may increase its security and influence by either de-
creasing or increasing the other state's relative advantages. This is evi-
dent not only in Hirschman's account of German behavior in the inter-
war period but also in Grieco's own cases. Grieco notes that the U.S. was
generally more powerful than the EC but that in the cases of successful
cooperation the EC received the greater relative gains. "The EC supported
those accords yielding it a favorable share of mutually positive gains[,
but] the EC restricted its support for accords it believed would produce
gaps in benefits favoring code partners, especially the U.S." (p. 68; see
also chap. 7, esp. 168-69, 216-20). Cooperation was achieved in the for-
mer areas and blocked by the EC in the latter areas. Why would the more
powerful U.S. agree to an outcome in which the EC gained relatively
more? There are two plausible responses: the U.S. was maximizing its
security by giving advantages to the Europeans a la Hirschman, or the
U.S. was not interested in relative gains. The latter conclusion is no bet-
ter for Grieco's argument than the former since it implies that variance
in states' sensitivities to relative gains may be very important: all states
may not be oriented primarily to relative gains, and thus cooperation
may not depend solely on the distribution of these gains.
This section has argued that the assumptions used to build systemic
models of international cooperation are not as simple and straightfor-
ward as they appear. The condition of anarchy, for one, is used to justify
a host of contradictory assumptions and outcomes: that states are abso-
lute gains maximizers or that they are relative gains minimizers; that
anarchy creates conditions resembling tacit bargaining or that it creates
conditions resembling full-scale negotiation. Each of these sets of as-
sumptions represents a different theory of international politics. More-
over, it is unlikely that anarchy dictates one or another of these condi-
tions all of the time. The motivations of states and the nature of the
international game depend on other factors, some of which, as Powell
shows, are systemic but many of which are located at the domestic level.
The neglect of domestic politics is then the second weakness of this
literature. The theories in Axelrod, Oye's Cooperation under Anarchy vol-
ume, and Grieco are concerned with the international systemic condi-
tions that affect the possibility of cooperation. Domestic factors are con-
sciously excluded or neglected.
Haas at least raises the issue of domestic politics, but even he deals
with it in only a glancing way. His study falls somewhere between the
international and domestic levels. He identifies a transnational epistemic
community but argues that it works through the domestic political arena
to change national preferences; that is, when a high level of uncertainty
THEORIES OF COOPERATION 489
CONCLUSION
With the end of the post-World War II international order, the need to
devise new cooperative arrangements among nations has become essen-
tial. While cooperation may not always be beneficial depending on the
issue and one's vantage point, attempts by states to reduce the negative
effects of their policies on one another can improve the general welfare.
54
See, e.g., Fred Block, The Origins of International Economic Disorder (Berkeley: Univer-
sity of California Press, 1977).
496 WORLD POLITICS
The literature reviewed here tries to identify the systemic conditions un-
der which collaborative activity may be promoted. Scholars have devel-
oped a common understanding of cooperation and a number of powerful
systemic hypotheses to explain cooperation. These hypotheses remain
problematic and tentative. They suggest that conditions that allow actors
to interact in an iterated fashion using strategies of reciprocity may be
conducive to cooperation. Achieving a "balanced" distribution of gains
in negotiations may also prove crucial to reaching agreement. The exis-
tence of international regimes today in certain issue-areas may foster co-
operation in other areas. Communities of transnational actors who share
beliefs and epistemologies may also promote collaborative agreements.
Finally, issues involving actors with different levels of capabilities may
prove more amenable to cooperative agreement. Sorting out the different
effects of these variables in practice is likely to be very difficult. For in-
stance, in an area where a regime exists, iteration is extensive, and reci-
procity is practiced (as in the GATT trade negotiations), how important are
the problems of large numbers of actors and declining levels of asym-
metry among them? The complex interaction of these variables in inter-
national politics makes it difficult to assess the conditions that promote
cooperation.
The literature also has at least two weaknesses. First, in striving to
build systemic theories, the authors begin with the assumption of anar-
chy and then add on a host of other assumptions that, it is implied, flow
from the fact of anarchy. In reality though, these assumptions seem to
depend on other factors, some domestic and some international. For ex-
ample, anarchy does not determine whether relative or absolute gains
dominate the motivations of states. Rather, that depends on the domestic
character of states and other features of the issue-area. Second, the liter-
ature suffers from a systematic neglect of domestic factors—even while
it depends on implicit theories about internal politics. Each state's pay-
offs, its perceptions of "balance," its time horizon and expectations about
the future, and its capacity to employ strategies to modify the game are
heavily conditioned by its domestic situation. Thus, for all that systemic
theory has been touted for its supposed epistemological priority or inher-
ent parsimony, the biggest gains in understanding international cooper-
ation in the future are likely to come from domestic-level theories.