INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS

4th Semest

Assignment 1

Group 6

Member of Group :

 LEADER : Denartha Randika (004201900057) WA no. (089620280307)

 Arum Nillam Ismudayani (004201900061)
 Fina Dyah Setyaningrum (004201900028)
 Hazmy Sultan (004201900068)
 Najmia Latifarani (004201900033)
 Siti Nurhasanah (004201900007)
 Sophia Margareth Tobing (004201900062)
 Trisdiyanti (004201900038)

DATE : Sabtu, 19 September 2020

Jababeka Education Park, Jl. Ki Hajar Dewantara, RT.2/RW.4, Mekarmukti, North Cikarang, Bekasi,
West Java 17530
Contribution table

NAME OF MEMBER CONTRIBUTIONS/RESPONSIBILITY

DENARTHA RANDIKA Resolving problem number 1
NAJMIA LATIFARANI Resolving problem number 2
ARUM NILLAM ISMUDAYANI Resolving problem number 3
HAZMY SULTAN GHIFARI Resolving problem number 4
SOPHIA MARGARETH TOBING Resolving problem number 5
TRISDIYANTI Resolving problem number 6
FINA DYAH SETYANINGRUM Resolving problem number 7
SITI NURHASANAH Resolving problem number 8
1. A truth serum has the property that 90% of the guilty suspects are properly judged while, of course,
10% of the guilty suspects are improperly found innocent. On the other hand, innocent suspects are
misjudged 1% of the time. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 5%
have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that
he is innocent?
Given :
P(G) = 0,05
P(Gc) = 0,95
P(Gs│G) = 0,9
P(Gs│Gc) = 0,01
Asked :
P(Gc│Gs) = ?
Answer :
Using bayes rule
P(B|A)P(A)
P(A|B) =
P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|𝐴𝐶 )P(𝐴𝐶 )

𝐶
P(𝐺𝑠 │𝐺 𝐶 )P(𝐺 𝐶 )
P(𝐺 │𝐺𝑠 ) =
P(𝐺𝑠 │𝐺 𝐶 )P(𝐺 𝐶 ) + P(𝐺𝑠 |G)P(G)
0,01.0,95
P(𝐺 𝐶 │𝐺𝑠 ) =
0,01.0,95 + 0,9.0,05
P(𝐺 𝐶 │𝐺𝑠 ) = 0,1743
So the probability that he is innocent is 0,1743

2. How many bridge hands are possible containing 4 spades, 6 diamonds, 1 club, and 2 hearts?
Given :
Bridge cards = 52 pcs, 13 each character
Asked :
4 spades, 6 diamonds, 1 club, and 2 hearts
Answer :
𝑛!
Using combination rules 𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)!
13!
4 spades  13𝐶4 = = 715
4!(13−4)!
13!
6 diamonds  13𝐶6 = = 1716
6!(13−6)!
13!
1 club  13𝐶1 = = 13
1!(13−1)!
 13!
2 hearts  13𝐶2 = = 78
2!(13−2)!

using multiplication rule

715x1.716x13x78 = 1.244.117.160
So the possible hand have 4 spades, 6 diamonds, 1 club, and 2 hearts is 1.244.117.160

3. A large industrial firm uses three local motels to provide overnight accommodations for its clients.
From past experience it is known that 20% of the clients are assigned rooms at the Ramada Inn, 50%
at the Sheraton, and 30% at the Lakeview Motor Lodge. If the plumbing is faulty in 5% of the rooms
at the Ramada Inn, in 4% of the rooms at the Sheraton, and in 8% of the rooms at the Lakeview
Motor Lodge, what is the probability that
a) a client will be assigned a room with faulty plumbing?
b) a person with a room having faulty plumbing was assigned accommodations at the Lakeview
Motor Lodge?
Given :

 The clients are assigned rooms at the Ramada Inn it is given :

P( R ) 20% = 0,2
 The clients are assigned rooms at the Sheraton its is given :
P( S ) 50% = 0,5
 The clients are assigned rooms at the Lakeview Motor Lodge it is given
P( L ) 30% = 0,3

Let F denotes the event that the plumbing is faulty. its given

 P (F ǀ R) = (5% x 0,2) = 0,05

 P (F ǀ S) = (4% x 0,5) = 0,04
 P (F ǀ L) = (8% x 0,3) = 0,08
Solution :

a). Find P(F) using a theorem total probability

P(F) = P (F ǀ R) P( R )+ P (F ǀ S) P ( S )+ P (F ǀ L) P ( L )

= (0,05) (0,2)+( 0,04) (0,5)+( 0,08) (0,3)  So, probability of the client will
be given a damaged room
= 0,01 + 0,02 + 0,024
plumbing are 0,054
= 0,054

b). Find P (L ǀ F) using a Baye’s Theorem

 𝑃 (𝐹 ǀ 𝐿) 𝑃(𝐿)
𝑃 (𝐿 ǀ 𝐹) = 𝑃 (𝐹)  So, probability of the person with a
room having faulty plumbing was
(0,08)×(0,3) assigned accommodations at the
= Lakeview Motor Lodge are 0,444
0,054

0,024
=
0,54

= 0,444

4. In a certain federal prison, it is known that 2/3 of the inmates are under 25 years of age. It is also
known that 3/5 of the inmates are male and that 5/8 of the inmates are female or 25 years of age or
older. What is the probability that a prisoner selected at random from this prison is female and at
least 25 years old?
Given :
Let A denotes the event that the inmate is under 25 years of age. It is known
P(A) = ⅔ = 0.667

 The probability that the inmate is at least 25 years of age is

P(A’) = 1 - ⅔ = ⅓ = 0.333

 Let M denotes the event that the inmate is male. It given

P(M) = ⅗ = 0.6

 The probability of the event that the inmate is female (which we will denote by F)
P(F) = 1 - P(M) = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4

 ⅝ of the inmates are female or 25 years of age or older

P(F ∪ A’) = ⅝ = 0.625

 We need to find the probability that a prisoner selected at random from this prison is female
and at least 25 years old, we need to find P(F ∩ A’)

If M and N are events, than

P(M ∪ N) = P(M) + P(N) - P(M ∩ N)

Solution :

P(F ∪ A’) = P(F) + P(A’) - P(F ∩ A’)

=> 0.625 = 0.4 + 0.333 - P(F ∩ A’)

=> P(F ∩ A’) = 0.4 + 0.333 - 0.625

=> P(F ∩ A’) = 0.108

 So, the probability that a prisoner selected at random from this prison is female and at least
25 years old is 0.108

5. From a box containing 6 black balls and 3 green balls, 3 balls are drawn in succession, each ball being
replaced in the box before the next draw is made. What is the probability that
a) all 3 are the same color?
b) each color is represented?
Given :
6 black balls (A)
3 green balls (B)
Total 9 balls
3 balls are drawn in succession(Permutasi), each ball being replaced in the box before the
next draw is made (means without return)

Solution :
𝑛 (𝐴)
a) 𝑃 = 𝑛 (𝑆)
3𝐴 𝑜𝑟 3𝐵
=
𝑛𝑃𝑟
6𝑃3 + 3𝑃3
=
9𝑃3
6! 3!
= +
3! 0!
9!
6!
120+6
=
504
126
=
504
1
=
4

=0,25
𝑛 (𝐴)
b) 𝑃 = 𝑛 (𝑆)
1𝐴 𝑜𝑟 1𝐵
=
𝑛𝑃𝑟
6 𝑃1 ×3 𝑃1
=
9𝑃3
6! 3!
= ×
5! 2!
9!
6!
 6 ×3
=
504
18
=
504
1
=
28
= 0,0356
6. A certain federal agency employs three consulting firms (A, B, and C) with probabilities 0.45, 0.40,
and 0.25, respectively. From past experience, it is known that the probability of cost overruns for
the firms are 0.05, 0.03, and 0.15, respectively. Suppose a cost overrun is experienced by the
agency.
a) What is the probability that the consulting firm involved is company C?
b) What is the probability that it is company A?
Given :
P(A) 0.45

Employs probabilities of three firms P(B) 0.40

P(C) 0.25

P(E|A) 0.05
E = Cost Overruns
From past experience P(E|B) 0.03

P(E|C) 0.15

Solution :
𝑃 (𝐸∣𝐶) 𝑥 𝑃 (𝐶)
a) 𝑃(𝐶|𝐸) =
(𝑃( 𝐸∣∣∣𝐶 )×𝑃(𝐶))+(𝑃( 𝐸∣∣∣𝐵 )×𝑃(𝐵))+(𝑃( 𝐸∣∣∣𝐴 )×𝑃(𝐴))
(0.15 𝑥 0.25)
= (0,15 ×0,25)+(0,03 ×0,40)+(0,05 ×0,45)

0.0375
=
0,0375+0,012+0,025

0.0375
=
0,072

= 0.520

b) Company is involved in cost overrun

𝑃 (𝐴 ∣ 𝐸) 𝑥 𝑃 (𝐴)
𝑃 (𝐴|𝐸) =
(𝑃( 𝐸 ∣ 𝐴 ) × 𝑃(𝐴)) + (𝑃( 𝐸 ∣ 𝐵 ) × 𝑃(𝐵)) + (𝑃( 𝐸 ∣ 𝐶 ) × 𝑃(𝐶 ))
 (0.05 𝑋 0.45)
= (0,05
×0,45)+(0,03 ×0,40)+(0,15×0,25)

0.0225
=
0,072

= 0.3125

7. A manufacturer is studying the effects of cooking temperature, cooking time, and type of cooking oil
for making potato chips. Three different temperatures, 4 different cooking times, and 3 different oils
are to be used.
a) What is the probability that any given set of two runs is chosen?
b) What is the probability that the highest temperature is used in either of these two
combinations?
Answer :

a) 3 x 4 x 3 = 36
1
=
36𝑐2
𝑛!
= (𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟!
36!
= (36−2)!2!
36!
=
34!2!
36 𝑥 35 𝑥 34!
=
34!2 ×1
= 18 x 35 = 630

So, the total answer is :

1
= 0.00158 ~= 0.0016
630

b) 3 x 4 = 12, 12 x 2 = 24, 3 x 4 x 3 = 36
12𝐶1 × 24𝐶1
=
36𝐶2
= 12C1
𝑛!
=
(𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟!
 12!
=
(12−1)!1!
12!
=
11!1!
12 ×11!
=
11!

= 12
= 24C1
𝑛!
=
(𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟!
24!
= (24−1)!1!
24!
=
23!1!
24×23!
=
23!

= 24

=36C2
𝑛!
=
(𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟!
36 !
= (36−2)!2!
36!
=
34! 2!
36 ×35 ×34!
=
34!2×1

= 18 × 35
= 630
So,the total answer is :
12 ×24
=
630
288
=
630

=0,4571

8. A producer of a certain type of electronic component ships to suppliers in lots of twenty. Suppose
that 60% of all such lots contain no defective components, 30% contain one defective component,
and 10% contain two defective components. A lot is picked, two components from the lot are
randomly selected and tested, and neither is defective.
a) What is the probability that zero defective components exist in the lot?
b) What is the probability that one defective exists in the lot?
c) What is the probability that two defectives exist in the lot?
Given :
Let D, denotes the event that a lot contains i defective iters (> = 0, 1,2).
 60% of all lots contain no defective components, i.e.
P(Do) =0.6
 30% contain one defoctive component, i.e.
P(D1) =0.3
 10% contain two defective components, i.e.
P(D2) =0.1
A lot is picked. T'wo components from that lot are randomly selocted and tested, and neither
is defective. Let N denotes such event.
Answer :
𝑃(𝑁∣𝐷0) 𝑃(𝐷0)
a) 𝑃 (𝐷0 ∣ 𝑁) =
(𝑃( 𝑁 𝐷0
∣∣
∣ )×𝑃(𝐷0))+(𝑃(𝑁∣∣∣𝐷1 )×𝑃(𝐷1))+(𝑃( 𝑁∣∣∣𝐷2 )×𝑃(𝐷2))
1×0,6
=
1 ×0,6+0,9×0,3+0,8 ×0,1
0,6
=
0,95

=0,63
𝑃(𝑁∣𝐷1) 𝑃(𝐷1)
b) 𝑃 (𝐷1 ∣ 𝑁) =
(𝑃( 𝑁∣∣∣𝐷0 )×𝑃(𝐷0))+(𝑃( 𝑁∣∣∣𝐷1 )×𝑃(𝐷1))+(𝑃( 𝑁∣∣∣𝐷2 )×𝑃(𝐷2))
0,9×0,3
=
1×0,6+0,9 ×0,3+0,8 ×0,1
0,27
=
0,95

= 0,284
𝑃(𝑁∣𝐷2) 𝑃(𝐷2)
c) 𝑃 (𝐷2 ∣ 𝑁) =
(𝑃( 𝑁∣∣∣𝐷0 )×𝑃(𝐷0))+(𝑃( 𝑁∣∣∣𝐷1 )×𝑃(𝐷1))+(𝑃( 𝑁∣∣∣𝐷2 )×𝑃(𝐷2))
0,8×0,1
=
1×0,6+0,9 ×0,3+0,8 ×0,1
0,08
=
0,95

= 0,084