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Introduction To DAPPS Demographic Analysis and Population Projection Training For Government of Sind

This document provides an introduction and overview of a workshop on demographic analysis and population projections for the Government of Sind. The workshop goals are to: 1. Equip participants with practical skills to use census data to produce population projections. 2. Train participants on available population projection tools such as DAPPS, PAS, RUP, and Mortpak. 3. Provide an understanding of how to make national, provincial and district level population projections and discuss implications for development planning. The workshop covers key concepts in demographic analysis including age/sex structure, fertility, mortality and migration and how to move from estimates to cohort-component projections using software tools.

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Anila Jafar
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71 views7 pages

Introduction To DAPPS Demographic Analysis and Population Projection Training For Government of Sind

This document provides an introduction and overview of a workshop on demographic analysis and population projections for the Government of Sind. The workshop goals are to: 1. Equip participants with practical skills to use census data to produce population projections. 2. Train participants on available population projection tools such as DAPPS, PAS, RUP, and Mortpak. 3. Provide an understanding of how to make national, provincial and district level population projections and discuss implications for development planning. The workshop covers key concepts in demographic analysis including age/sex structure, fertility, mortality and migration and how to move from estimates to cohort-component projections using software tools.

Uploaded by

Anila Jafar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to DAPPS

Demographic Analysis and Population


Projection Training for Government of Sind

Muqaddar Shah
Program Analyst (P & D)
UNFPA Islamabad
General Structure of Workshop]
 PowerPoint presentations
 Sequence of steps to build (or re-build and refine) national/provincial population
projections
 Learning and questions
 Presentations on population projections for Sind Province
Workshop Goals
 To understand basic concepts to make sense of demographic data – balancing
equation, intercensal comparisons, reporting completeness, etc.
 Become more familiar with software to make estimates and projections from
population censuses and surveys
 Develop (or refine) national/provincial projections for your country/province
using various software tools
 Introduction to tools for subnational projections
Demographic Analysis – our definition
 Ways to understand and evaluate demographic data, levels, and trends based on
comparisons
 Often based on the balancing equation
(Pop. Change = Births - Deaths + Net Mig.)
 Often involves choices about the quality of various data sources and the most
appropriate methods
 Sometimes interpreted through broader comparisons (e.g. how do
measurements in a country compare to regional/world patterns)
Projections as a Tool to Predict the Future
Introduction to Demographic Analysis
 WHY do we do Population Projections?
 Improve general knowledge
 Better planning and allocation of government resources

From Estimates to Cohort Component

The World of Population Projections


 There are several software options available for doing population projections.
Some strong points of DAPPS:
 Flexibility and detail (e.g., single-year data)
 Visualization
 Integration of demographic analysis tools
 File management and comparisons of different projections (e.g., high/low)
 Provincial/Districts projections
Goals of Workshop
Strengthen institutional capacities to produce population projections and understand
their use by:
1. Equipping you with practical skills to use census data to produce
population projections
2. Training participants on available population projection tools
3. Providing participants with an understanding of the process of moving
from national to provincial/district population projections and
discussing implications related to development planning
From Estimates to Projections
The four KEY ASPECTS of demographic analysis (and cohort-component projections):
1. Age and sex structure
2. Fertility
3. Mortality
4. Migration
The Fundamental Demographic Accounting Principle –
The Balancing Equation
Population (t ) = Population(t ) + Births – Deaths + Net Migration
1 o
Software Installation: PAS/RUP/SPToolkit
• Download USCB_Tools.exe:
– http://www.census.gov/population/international/software/uscbtoo
lsdownload.html
– From shared Google Drive
• See pdf file for US Census Bureau Tools Installation
USCBToolsInstall.pdf
Further Resources
After installation, participants can find the documentation for PAS, RUP, and SPToolkit in
the folder:
\US Census Bureau Tools\Documentation

More Software
MORTPAK
United Nations Population Division
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/mortality/mortpak.shtml

Install Mortpak
• Navigate to the Software directory
• Double click on the “setup.exe” file and follow the directions.
About DAPPS
 A U.S. Census Bureau developed software
package designed to help users produce
and analyze population projections
 Projection power of the Rural Urban
Projections (RUP) program
 User-friendly interface
 Integrated Population Analysis System
(PAS) functionality
 Combine PAS and RUP into one system
 Works with RUP to create projections
 No input file required
 Folder organization
 Friendly user interface
 Enhanced outputs

Rural/Urban Projections (RUP)


• Powerful program for projecting age and sex cohorts over time
• Requires at least three components for projection
– Base population, by age and sex
– Mortality structure, by age and sex
– Fertility structure, by age and sex
• Optional component of net migration pattern, by age and sex of migrant
• Developed in the 1980s
• Often less user-friendly interface than other programs
– Inputs require proper formatting
– Inputs require specific sequencing
• Formatting inflexibility offset by
– Input types and quantities allowed
– Generated output types and quantities
Population Analysis System (PAS)
• Collection of 45 Microsoft Excel workbooks used for analyzing age
structure, mortality, fertility, migration, population distribution, and
urbanization
• Spreadsheets can be used to generate inputs for population projections
DAPPS Demonstration

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