1. Plot the demand and share the characteristics of demand pattern.

Sr.No. Period Tablet 1 Tablet 2

1 Dec-17 413 233 Demand Pattern
2 Jan-18 399 171
800
3 Feb-18 307 258
4 Mar-18 350 96 700
5 Apr-18 277 169
6 May-18 341 82 600
7 Jun-18 536 133
500
8 Jul-18 383 142
9 Aug-18 486 167 400
10 Sep-18 503 97
11 Oct-18 485 86 300
12 Nov-18 482 167
200
13 Dec-18 744 66
14 Jan-19 371 174
100
15 Feb-19 376 81
16 Mar-19 216 168 0
17 Apr-19 118 32 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20
18 May-19 208 84
Tablet 1 Tablet 2
19 Jun-19 202 135
20 Jul-19 288 165
21 Aug-19 415 180
22 Sep-19 434 145
23 Oct-19 301 236
24 Nov-19 269 91
From the above graph, We can conclude that:
25 Dec-19 359 174
26 Jan-20 267 156 For the complete period of Dec-17 to Nov-20 the demand for Tablet 1 is highe
27 Feb-20 281 190 than the demand for Tablet 2 except for the month of Jun-20 where the
demand for Tablet 2 is a bit higher than the demand for Tablet 1.
28 Mar-20 193 141
29 Apr-20 216 171 Also,in the month Dec-18 the demand for Tablet 1 (744) is very high as
30 May-20 143 120 compared to Tablet 2 (66) and there was a significant increase (i.e. from 482 to
744) and the demand for Tablet 2 decreased (i.e. from 167 to 66)
31 Jun-20 255 293
32 Jul-20 228 122
33 Aug-20 419 118
34 Sep-20 405 96
35 Oct-20 286 63
36 Nov-20 480 145
rn

19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20

blet 2

he demand for Tablet 1 is higher

nth of Jun-20 where the
and for Tablet 1.

1 (744) is very high as

ficant increase (i.e. from 482 to
. from 167 to 66)
 Simple Moving Average
Given Content MAPE Calculation for 3-Month MA MAPE Calculation for 5-Month MA
S.No. Period Tablet 1 Moving Average Error |Error| |% Error| Moving Average Error
1 Dec-17 413
2 Jan-18 399
3 Feb-18 307
4 Mar-18 350 373 -23 23 6.57%
5 Apr-18 277 352 -75 75 27.08%
6 May-18 341 311.33 29.67 29.67 8.70% 349.20 -8.20
7 Jun-18 536 322.67 213.33 213.33 39.80% 334.80 201.20
8 Jul-18 383 384.67 -1.67 1.67 0.44% 362.20 20.80
9 Aug-18 486 420.00 66.00 66.00 13.58% 377.40 108.60
10 Sep-18 503 468.33 34.67 34.67 6.89% 404.60 98.40
11 Oct-18 485 457.33 27.67 27.67 5.70% 449.80 35.20
12 Nov-18 482 491.33 -9.33 9.33 1.94% 478.60 3.40
13 Dec-18 744 490.00 254.00 254.00 34.14% 467.80 276.20
14 Jan-19 371 570.33 -199.33 199.33 53.73% 540.00 -169.00
15 Feb-19 376 532.33 -156.33 156.33 41.58% 517.00 -141.00
16 Mar-19 216 497.00 -281.00 281.00 130.09% 491.60 -275.60
17 Apr-19 118 321.00 -203.00 203.00 172.03% 437.80 -319.80
18 May-19 208 236.67 -28.67 28.67 13.78% 365.00 -157.00
19 Jun-19 202 180.67 21.33 21.33 10.56% 257.80 -55.80
20 Jul-19 288 176.00 112.00 112.00 38.89% 224.00 64.00
21 Aug-19 415 232.67 182.33 182.33 43.94% 206.40 208.60
22 Sep-19 434 301.67 132.33 132.33 30.49% 246.20 187.80
23 Oct-19 301 379.00 -78.00 78.00 25.91% 309.40 -8.40
24 Nov-19 269 383.33 -114.33 114.33 42.50% 328.00 -59.00
25 Dec-19 359 334.67 24.33 24.33 6.78% 341.40 17.60
26 Jan-20 267 309.67 -42.67 42.67 15.98% 355.60 -88.60
27 Feb-20 281 298.33 -17.33 17.33 6.17% 326.00 -45.00
28 Mar-20 193 302.33 -109.33 109.33 56.65% 295.40 -102.40
29 Apr-20 216 247.00 -31.00 31.00 14.35% 273.80 -57.80
30 May-20 143 230.00 -87.00 87.00 60.84% 263.20 -120.20
31 Jun-20 255 184.00 71.00 71.00 27.84% 220.00 35.00
32 Jul-20 228 204.67 23.33 23.33 10.23% 217.60 10.40
33 Aug-20 419 208.67 210.33 210.33 50.20% 207.00 212.00
34 Sep-20 405 300.67 104.33 104.33 25.76% 252.20 152.80
35 Oct-20 286 350.67 -64.67 64.67 22.61% 290.00 -4.00
36 Nov-20 480 370.00 110.00 110.00 22.92% 318.60 161.40

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 1 for 3 months) 32.38%

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 1 for 5 months) 39.27%
 Exponential Smoothing
ulation for 5-Month MA Given Content MAPE Calculation for α = 0.03
|Error| |% Error| S.No. Period Tablet 1 Forecast(α=0.3) Error
1 Dec-17 413 413.0 0.00
2 Jan-18 399 413.00 -14.00
3 Feb-18 307 408.80 -101.80
4 Mar-18 350 378.26 -28.26
5 Apr-18 277 369.78 -92.78
8.20 2.40% 6 May-18 341 341.95 -0.95
201.20 37.54% 7 Jun-18 536 341.66 194.34
20.80 5.43% 8 Jul-18 383 399.96 -16.96
108.60 22.35% 9 Aug-18 486 394.87 91.13
98.40 19.56% 10 Sep-18 503 422.21 80.79
35.20 7.26% 11 Oct-18 485 446.45 38.55
3.40 0.71% 12 Nov-18 482 458.01 23.99
276.20 37.12% 13 Dec-18 744 465.21 278.79
169.00 45.55% 14 Jan-19 371 548.85 -177.85
141.00 37.50% 15 Feb-19 376 495.49 -119.49
275.60 127.59% 16 Mar-19 216 459.64 -243.64
319.80 271.02% 17 Apr-19 118 386.55 -268.55
157.00 75.48% 18 May-19 208 305.99 -97.99
55.80 27.62% 19 Jun-19 202 276.59 -74.59
64.00 22.22% 20 Jul-19 288 254.21 33.79
208.60 50.27% 21 Aug-19 415 264.35 150.65
187.80 43.27% 22 Sep-19 434 309.54 124.46
8.40 2.79% 23 Oct-19 301 346.88 -45.88
59.00 21.93% 24 Nov-19 269 333.12 -64.12
17.60 4.90% 25 Dec-19 359 313.88 45.12
88.60 33.18% 26 Jan-20 267 327.42 -60.42
45.00 16.01% 27 Feb-20 281 309.29 -28.29
102.40 53.06% 28 Mar-20 193 300.80 -107.80
57.80 26.76% 29 Apr-20 216 268.46 -52.46
120.20 84.06% 30 May-20 143 252.72 -109.72
35.00 13.73% 31 Jun-20 255 219.81 35.19
10.40 4.56% 32 Jul-20 228 230.36 -2.36
212.00 50.60% 33 Aug-20 419 229.66 189.34
152.80 37.73% 34 Sep-20 405 286.46 118.54
4.00 1.40% 35 Oct-20 286 322.02 -36.02
161.40 33.63% 36 Nov-20 480 311.21 168.79

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 1 for α=0.3)

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 1 for α=0.5)
 Exponential Smoothing
lculation for α = 0.03 MAPE Calculation for α = 0.05
|Error| |% Error| Forecast(α=0.5) Error |Error| |% Error|
0.00 0.00% 413.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%
14.00 3.51% 413.00 -14.00 14.00 3.51%
101.80 33.16% 406.00 -99.00 99.00 32.25%
28.26 8.07% 356.50 -6.50 6.50 1.86%
92.78 33.50% 353.25 -76.25 76.25 27.53%
0.95 0.28% 315.13 25.88 25.88 7.59%
194.34 36.26% 328.06 207.94 207.94 38.79%
16.96 4.43% 432.03 -49.03 49.03 12.80%
91.13 18.75% 407.52 78.48 78.48 16.15%
80.79 16.06% 446.76 56.24 56.24 11.18%
38.55 7.95% 474.88 10.12 10.12 2.09%
23.99 4.98% 479.94 2.06 2.06 0.43%
278.79 37.47% 480.97 263.03 263.03 35.35%
177.85 47.94% 612.48 -241.48 241.48 65.09%
119.49 31.78% 491.74 -115.74 115.74 30.78%
243.64 112.80% 433.87 -217.87 217.87 100.87%
268.55 227.59% 324.94 -206.94 206.94 175.37%
97.99 47.11% 221.47 -13.47 13.47 6.47%
74.59 36.93% 214.73 -12.73 12.73 6.30%
33.79 11.73% 208.37 79.63 79.63 27.65%
150.65 36.30% 248.18 166.82 166.82 40.20%
124.46 28.68% 331.59 102.41 102.41 23.60%
45.88 15.24% 382.80 -81.80 81.80 27.17%
64.12 23.84% 341.90 -72.90 72.90 27.10%
45.12 12.57% 305.45 53.55 53.55 14.92%
60.42 22.63% 332.22 -65.22 65.22 24.43%
28.29 10.07% 299.61 -18.61 18.61 6.62%
107.80 55.86% 290.31 -97.31 97.31 50.42%
52.46 24.29% 241.65 -25.65 25.65 11.88%
109.72 76.73% 228.83 -85.83 85.83 60.02%
35.19 13.80% 185.91 69.09 69.09 27.09%
2.36 1.04% 220.46 7.54 7.54 3.31%
189.34 45.19% 224.23 194.77 194.77 46.48%
118.54 29.27% 321.61 83.39 83.39 20.59%
36.02 12.59% 363.31 -77.31 77.31 27.03%
168.79 35.16% 324.65 155.35 155.35 32.36%

32.32%
29.04%
 Simple Moving Average
Given Content MAPE Calculation for 3-Month MA MAPE Calculation for 5-Month MA
S.No. Period Tablet 2 Moving Average Error |Error| |% Error| Moving Average Error
1 Dec-17 233
2 Jan-18 171
3 Feb-18 258
4 Mar-18 96 220.67 -124.67 124.67 129.86%
5 Apr-18 169 175.00 -6.00 6.00 3.55%
6 May-18 82 174.33 -92.33 92.33 112.60% 185.40 -103.40
7 Jun-18 133 115.67 17.33 17.33 13.03% 155.20 -22.20
8 Jul-18 142 128.00 14.00 14.00 9.86% 147.60 -5.60
9 Aug-18 167 119.00 48.00 48.00 28.74% 124.40 42.60
10 Sep-18 97 147.33 -50.33 50.33 51.89% 138.60 -41.60
11 Oct-18 86 135.33 -49.33 49.33 57.36% 124.20 -38.20
12 Nov-18 167 116.67 50.33 50.33 30.14% 125.00 42.00
13 Dec-18 66 116.67 -50.67 50.67 76.77% 131.80 -65.80
14 Jan-19 174 106.33 67.67 67.67 38.89% 116.60 57.40
15 Feb-19 81 135.67 -54.67 54.67 67.49% 118.00 -37.00
16 Mar-19 168 107.00 61.00 61.00 36.31% 114.80 53.20
17 Apr-19 32 141.00 -109.00 109.00 340.63% 131.20 -99.20
18 May-19 84 93.67 -9.67 9.67 11.51% 104.20 -20.20
19 Jun-19 135 94.67 40.33 40.33 29.88% 107.80 27.20
20 Jul-19 165 83.67 81.33 81.33 49.29% 100.00 65.00
21 Aug-19 180 128.00 52.00 52.00 28.89% 116.80 63.20
22 Sep-19 145 160.00 -15.00 15.00 10.34% 119.20 25.80
23 Oct-19 236 163.33 72.67 72.67 30.79% 141.80 94.20
24 Nov-19 91 187.00 -96.00 96.00 105.49% 172.20 -81.20
25 Dec-19 174 157.33 16.67 16.67 9.58% 163.40 10.60
26 Jan-20 156 167.00 -11.00 11.00 7.05% 165.20 -9.20
27 Feb-20 190 140.33 49.67 49.67 26.14% 160.40 29.60
28 Mar-20 141 173.33 -32.33 32.33 22.93% 169.40 -28.40
29 Apr-20 171 162.33 8.67 8.67 5.07% 150.40 20.60
30 May-20 120 167.33 -47.33 47.33 39.44% 166.40 -46.40
31 Jun-20 293 144.00 149.00 149.00 50.85% 155.60 137.40
32 Jul-20 122 194.67 -72.67 72.67 59.56% 183.00 -61.00
33 Aug-20 118 178.33 -60.33 60.33 51.13% 169.40 -51.40
34 Sep-20 96 177.67 -81.67 81.67 85.07% 164.80 -68.80
35 Oct-20 63 112.00 -49.00 49.00 77.78% 149.80 -86.80
36 Nov-20 145 92.33 52.67 52.67 36.32% 138.40 6.60

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 2 for 3 months) 52.55%

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 2 for 5 months) 49.14%
 Exponential Smoothing
ulation for 5-Month MA Given Content MAPE Calculation for α = 0.03
|Error| |% Error| S.No. Period Tablet 2 Forecast(α=0.3) Error |Error|
1 Dec-17 233 233.00 0.00 0.00
2 Jan-18 171 233.00 -62.00 62.00
3 Feb-18 258 214.40 43.60 43.60
4 Mar-18 96 227.48 -131.48 131.48
5 Apr-18 169 188.04 -19.04 19.04
103.40 126.10% 6 May-18 82 182.33 -100.33 100.33
22.20 16.69% 7 Jun-18 133 152.23 -19.23 19.23
5.60 3.94% 8 Jul-18 142 146.46 -4.46 4.46
42.60 25.51% 9 Aug-18 167 145.12 21.88 21.88
41.60 42.89% 10 Sep-18 97 151.69 -54.69 54.69
38.20 44.42% 11 Oct-18 86 135.28 -49.28 49.28
42.00 25.15% 12 Nov-18 167 120.50 46.50 46.50
65.80 99.70% 13 Dec-18 66 134.45 -68.45 68.45
57.40 32.99% 14 Jan-19 174 113.91 60.09 60.09
37.00 45.68% 15 Feb-19 81 131.94 -50.94 50.94
53.20 31.67% 16 Mar-19 168 116.66 51.34 51.34
99.20 310.00% 17 Apr-19 32 132.06 -100.06 100.06
20.20 24.05% 18 May-19 84 102.04 -18.04 18.04
27.20 20.15% 19 Jun-19 135 96.63 38.37 38.37
65.00 39.39% 20 Jul-19 165 108.14 56.86 56.86
63.20 35.11% 21 Aug-19 180 125.20 54.80 54.80
25.80 17.79% 22 Sep-19 145 141.64 3.36 3.36
94.20 39.92% 23 Oct-19 236 142.65 93.35 93.35
81.20 89.23% 24 Nov-19 91 170.65 -79.65 79.65
10.60 6.09% 25 Dec-19 174 146.76 27.24 27.24
9.20 5.90% 26 Jan-20 156 154.93 1.07 1.07
29.60 15.58% 27 Feb-20 190 155.25 34.75 34.75
28.40 20.14% 28 Mar-20 141 165.68 -24.68 24.68
20.60 12.05% 29 Apr-20 171 158.27 12.73 12.73
46.40 38.67% 30 May-20 120 162.09 -42.09 42.09
137.40 46.89% 31 Jun-20 293 149.46 143.54 143.54
61.00 50.00% 32 Jul-20 122 192.52 -70.52 70.52
51.40 43.56% 33 Aug-20 118 171.37 -53.37 53.37
68.80 71.67% 34 Sep-20 96 155.36 -59.36 59.36
86.80 137.78% 35 Oct-20 63 137.55 -74.55 74.55
6.60 4.55% 36 Nov-20 145 115.18 29.82 29.82

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 1 for α=0.3) 48.11%

Mean Absolute Percentage Error(Tablet 1 for α=0.5) 49.22%
nential Smoothing
for α = 0.03 MAPE Calculation for α = 0.05
|% Error| Forecast(α=0.5) Error |Error| |% Error|
0.00% 233.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%
36.26% 233.00 -62.00 62.00 36.26%
16.90% 202.00 56.00 56.00 21.71%
136.96% 230.00 -134.00 134.00 139.58%
11.26% 163.00 6.00 6.00 3.55%
122.35% 166.00 -84.00 84.00 102.44%
14.46% 124.00 9.00 9.00 6.77%
3.14% 128.50 13.50 13.50 9.51%
13.10% 135.25 31.75 31.75 19.01%
56.38% 151.13 -54.13 54.13 55.80%
57.30% 124.06 -38.06 38.06 44.26%
27.85% 105.03 61.97 61.97 37.11%
103.71% 136.02 -70.02 70.02 106.08%
34.53% 101.01 72.99 72.99 41.95%
62.89% 137.50 -56.50 56.50 69.76%
30.56% 109.25 58.75 58.75 34.97%
312.69% 138.63 -106.63 106.63 333.21%
21.48% 85.31 -1.31 1.31 1.56%
28.42% 84.66 50.34 50.34 37.29%
34.46% 109.83 55.17 55.17 33.44%
30.45% 137.41 42.59 42.59 23.66%
2.32% 158.71 -13.71 13.71 9.45%
39.56% 151.85 84.15 84.15 35.66%
87.53% 193.93 -102.93 102.93 113.11%
15.66% 142.46 31.54 31.54 18.12%
0.69% 158.23 -2.23 2.23 1.43%
18.29% 157.12 32.88 32.88 17.31%
17.50% 173.56 -32.56 32.56 23.09%
7.44% 157.28 13.72 13.72 8.02%
35.08% 164.14 -44.14 44.14 36.78%
48.99% 142.07 150.93 150.93 51.51%
57.81% 217.53 -95.53 95.53 78.31%
45.23% 169.77 -51.77 51.77 43.87%
61.83% 143.88 -47.88 47.88 49.88%
118.33% 119.94 -56.94 56.94 90.38%
20.56% 91.47 53.53 53.53 36.92%
2. Which of the forecasting model among Simple Moving Average ( 3 month and 5 months) and Exponential smoothing (al
yield least error (MAPE)?

From Sheets- 'Forecast for Tablet 1' and 'Forecast for Tablet 2',

For Tablet 1:

We can observe that,

The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for was better for 3-month moving average (32.38%) than for 5-month moving
Moving Average for 3-month yield least error than that for 5-month.
The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for was better for α=0.50 (29.04%) than for α=0.30 (32.32%) moving average i.e
α=0.50 yield least error than that for α=0.30 .
For Tablet 2:
We can observe that,
The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for was better for 5-month moving average (49.14%) than for 3-month moving
Moving Average for 5-month yield least error than that for 3-month.
The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for was better for α=0.30 (48.11%) than for α=0530 (49.22%) moving average i.
for α=0.30 yield least error than that for α=0.50 .

3. Which of the model is suitable for Tablet 1 and Tablet 2 respectively?

 

So, from the above observations we can clearly derive the conclusion as,

For Tablet 1- Exponential Smoothing model works the best with the least MAPE of 29.04% for α=0.50.
For Tablet 2- Exponential Smoothing model works the best with the least MAPE of 48.11% for α=0.30.
nd Exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.3 and alpha =0.5)

8%) than for 5-month moving average (39.27%) i.e. Simple

0 (32.32%) moving average i.e. Exponential Smoothing for

4%) than for 3-month moving average (52.55%) i.e. Simple

30 (49.22%) moving average i.e. Exponential Smoothing

α=0.50.
α=0.30.