Jjmie: A Comprehensive Model of Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) For Industrial Systems Evaluations
Jjmie: A Comprehensive Model of Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) For Industrial Systems Evaluations
Jjmie: A Comprehensive Model of Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) For Industrial Systems Evaluations
Abstract
Reliability, availability, and maintainability are considered as a crucial metrics that are used to evaluate the performance
of the industrial systems. In this work, an integrated reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) model of the 3-out-
of-4 system was proposed to quantify the values of RAM indices and to identify the most critical equipment which mainly
affects the system performance. The Markovian approach was adopted to model the system behavior. A transition diagram
for the proposed model was constructed and differential equations of the proposed model were formulated to obtain the state
probability. The availability at steady state, reliability at transient state and maintainability were analyzed and investigated.
The proposed model was verified and validated. A real data of industrial system in Oil and Gas Egyptian Company was
applied to validate the proposed model and the effect of failure and repair rates at different mission time was presented and
discussed. The results of the applied proposed system revealed that the system availability at steady state is 99 %, the system
reliability is 0.59%, and the system maintainability is 0.99%. On the other hand Turbine no. three was found the most
critical item in the system and need more attention to improve the system performance. It could be said that the proposed
model is considered an excellent tool for industrial systems performance evaluations.
© 2018 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved
Keywords: Reliability; Availability; Maintainability; Markov approach.
provides a popular way to solve the differential equations. analyzed and investigated. The differential equations are
When the system includes a large numbers of differential solved using Rung-Kutta method with aided of MATLAB
equations, MATLAB program could be used to solve these software to get the system availability at steady state (Ass)
large equations. For this, the MATLAB software is and solved by Laplace transform to get reliability at
considered one of the multi programs that could be used transient state. The second is to apply the proposed model
for numerical computations. for the performance measure of a real case of Oil and Gas
Lin, et al. [12] presented a reliability study using both industrial system. This model provides results for a
classical and Bayesian semi-parametric frame-works, they complete reliability, availability, and maintainability
illustrated how a wheel- set’s degradation data can be (RAM) analysis utilizing data sets from a production
modeled and analyzed to ease the calculation of system system in an Oil and Gas plant. A parametric investigation
reliability during applying preventive maintenance. Singh, of various values of system failure rates and repair rates on
and Goyal, [13] developed methodology to study the system reliability (Rs), availability, and maintainability and
transient behaviour of repairable mechanical biscuit their effects on the system performance are presented. The
shaping system on a biscuit manufacturing plant for results of that analysis help the designers/engineers and
determining the availability of the system based on managers to quantify and measure the system
Markov modelling. The differential equations have been performance; conversely, suitable maintenance
solved using Laplace Transforms. Laplace Transform policies/strategies can be selected to enhance the
commonly used in the transient state to obtain the state productivity of the plant.
probabilities, in which the differential equations are
converted to algebraic equations to simplify the system Start
solution.
The K-out-of-N system is the most important type for
the repairable system according to reliability theory and, it Construct the transition diagram of
is used in many applications such as petroleum industry. the 3-out-of-4 system
An investigation of a 2-out-of-3 system has been presented
recently in published work in which the reliability and
availability have been evaluated and analyzed for the
Write the system availability,
system using Kolmogorov’s equations and applied on Part.1 reliability, and maintainability
some particular cases. In this analysis, mean time to (RAM) equations
system failure (MTSF), steady-state availability, busy
period and profit function were derived to evaluate the
system reliability and availability [14-15]. Preeti, [16] Solve the system equations by
presented an analysis which considered as a powerful tool software program and get the values
to analyze reliability of a linear consecutive 2-out-of-3-F of RAM
system with common cause shock failure in which the
transient equations of the reliability and steady equations
Implement the proposed model on a
of the availability have been investigated. Yusuf, [17]
real case study
evaluate the system reliability indices of a repairable 3-
out-of-4 system with preventive maintenance involving Part.2
four types of failures using Kolmogorov equations.
Apparently, the literature review -up to our reading- Present a parametric investigation to
revealed the following points: evaluate the system criticality
The researchers concentrated, to more extent, on the
investigation of availability and reliability of the
industrial systems.
Oil and Gas industry need more attention to improve End
and maintain its system performance.
A little attention is paid to investigate the integration of Figuer1: Steps of the presented work.
RAM for different industrial application.
No more work on studying of RAM analysis for a 2. System Description
multi-component system such as 3-out-of-4 system.
Moreover, the applications of RAM analysis as an In this section, the 3-out-of-4 system is described. The
adopted approach for maintenance policies for Oil and Gas system consists of four units in which one unite is standby
Industrial systems could be proposed and applied for (sb) and the other three units must be in the operating state
increasing customer satisfaction, reduce the frequency of (o) for the system to work. The system failed (F) when two
failures and maintenance costs. This is a motivation of the units failed and the other two units are in good state (g).
present work. Based on Markov assumption [18], differential equations
The aim of this work is to develop a comprehensive that describe the proposed system are written to analyze
RAM model for industrial systems evaluation. This study the probability for each state. These equations are further
has two main parts, as presented in Fig.1; the first is to solved for determining the RAM indices. The states of the
develop 3-out-of-4 system RAM model based on the system according to Markov are shown below in Table (1),
Markovian approach. Availability at steady state, and the transition diagram in Fig.2 depicts a model
reliability at transient state and maintainability are showing all the possible states of the system.
© 2018 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 12, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665) 61
These equations were solved using Rung-Kutta Forth After solving these equations, the probabilities of
order method and MATLAB, the values of steady state operating states for the system, under consideration, are
probabilities are as follows: calculated as follows:
P1 = (λ1/μ1) P0, P2 = (λ2 / μ2) P0, P3 = (λ3 / μ3) P0m, P0 = (C A B) / D (35)
P4 = (λ1λ2) / (μ1μ2) P0, P5 = (λ1λ3) / (μ1μ3) P0, P1= (λ1 A B) / D (36)
P6 = (λ1λ4) / (μ1μ4) P0, P7 = (λ2λ3) / (μ2μ3) P0, P2 = (λ2 C B) / D (37)
P8 = (λ2λ4) / (μ2μ4) P0, P9 = (λ3 λ4) / (μ3 μ4) P0 P3 = (λ3 C A) / D (38)
The probability of full working capacity (P 0) is Where:
determined using normalizing conditions (i.e.,∑9𝑖=0 Pi= 1) A= μ2+ S +λ1 +λ3 +λ4 (39)
as follows:
B= μ3+ S +λ1 +λ2+λ4 (40)
P0= [(μ1 μ2 μ3 μ4) / (λ1 μ2 μ3 μ4 + λ2μ1μ3 μ4 + λ3 μ1 μ2 μ4 + λ1λ2
C= μ1+ S +λ2 +λ3 +λ4 (41)
μ3 μ4 + λ1λ3 μ2 μ4 + λ1λ4 μ2 μ3 + λ2λ3 μ1 μ4 + λ2λ4 μ1 μ3 + λ3λ4
D= see appendix A (42)
μ1 μ2)] (22)
Having the values of probabilities of working states
Having the values of probabilities (P 0-P9) determined,
determined, RS is calculated as follows:
ASS is calculated as a summation of all working state
probabilities as follows: Rs(S) = P0(S) + P1(S) + P2(S) + P3(S) (43)
ASS= P0 + P1 + P2 + P3 (23) Taking the inverse of Laplace transforms then, P0, P1,
P2, and P3, are calculated as F(t) and the system reliability
3.2. Reliability Equations. is calculated at time t as follows:
R (t) = P0 (t) + P1 (t) + P2 (t) + P3 (t) (44)
To get the reliability (RS) of the system under
consideration at any time, the equations (1 to10) are solved
taking Laplace transform and the probability transform are 3.3. Maintainability Equations
as follows:
For any system, the system maintainability (MS) is
[S + λ1 + λ2 +λ3] P0(S) = μ1P1(S) + μ2P2(S) + μ3P3(S) (24) calculated as follows:
[S + μ1 +λ2 + λ3 + λ4] P1(S) = μ2 P4(S) + μ3 P5(S) + μ4 MS (t) = 1- e (-μt) (45)
P6(S) + λ1 P0(S) (25) Where(μ) is the repair rate (μ= 1 ⁄ MTTR), MTTRs is a
[S + λ1 + λ3 + λ4 + μ2] P2(S) = μ1 P4(S) + μ3 P7(S) + μ4 mean time to repair of the system and is calculated as a
function in mean time to repair (MTTR) and mean time
P8(S) + λ2 P0(S) (26) between failure (MTBF) of system component i where:
[S +λ1+λ2 +λ4 + μ3] P3(S) = μ1 P5(S) + μ2 P7(S) + μ4 P9(S) ∑𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅𝑖/𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹𝑖
MTTRS = ∑𝑛
(46)
+ λ3 P0(S). (27) 𝑖=1 1/𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹𝑖
Output
Input
Turbine (T1)
Loading plant
Figure 3: Block diagram of the industrial real system of Egyptian Petrol Company
(Turbines of power generation).
The value of the failure rate and repair rate for each
turbine is illustrated in Table (3) where: 4.2. System Reliability
Failure rate = number of failures / operating time (47)
RS is calculated as follows:
Repair rate = number of failures/ repair time (48) Substitute about λ and µ from Table (3) in equations
As an example for T1; (39 to 42), the variables A, B, C and D could be
calculated as follows:
Failure rate (λ) = 11/ 6471= 0.0017 (49)
A = 10000.0S + 1541.0 (51)
Repair rate (μ) = 11 / 88 = 0.125 (50)
B = 10000.0S + 1543.0 (52)
C = 2500.0(5000.0S + 643.0) (53)
Table 2: The collected historical data of the considered system for D = (1.25e15S4 + 5.5112e14S3 + 8.075e13S2 +
year 2015.
3.9329e12S + 4.1045e8) (54)
Number of Repair time Operating
failures (hours) time (hours) Substitute about the variables A, B, C, and D in (eq.,
T1 11 88 6471 35-38) to get the probability of the working states.
T2 8 53 6509 Taking the inverse Laplace of system reliability (eq., 35
T3 6 38 6526
- 38) to get :
T4 9 105 6456 P0 (t) =0.97e (-0.0001t) + 0.015e (-0.15t) + 0.00003e (-0.15t) +
0.01e (-0.13t) (55)
Table 3: Failure and repair rates of the considered system. (-0.0001t) (-0.15t) -6 (-0.15t)
P1 (t) =0.01e - 0.0001 e –2e e
T1 T2 T3 T4 (-0.13t)
– 0.012e (56)
Failure rate (λ) 0.0017 0.0012 0.001 0.0014
(-0.0001t) (-0.15t) (-0.15t)
P2 (t) =0.0075e - 0.007e - 0.0003e +
Repair rate ( μ) 0.125 0.15 0.15 0.08
0.0005e (-0.13t) (57)
(-0.0001t) (-0.15t) (-0.15t)
4.1. System Availability P3 (t) =0.006e - 0.007e + 0.0003e +
(-0.13t)
0.0004e (58)
By substituting values of failure and repair rates in
system equations from (Eq.12 to 21) the state probabilities Substitute about P0, P1, P2 and P3in equation (44) to
are calculated as a function in P0 as follows: get RS as follows:
P1= 0.0136 P0, P2= 0.008 P0, P3= 0.006 P0, Rs= 0.9935 e (-0.0001t) + 0.0009 e (-0.15t) + 0.000028 e (-0.15t)
P4= 0.000011 P0, P5 =0.00001P0, P6 =0.0002 P0
- 0.0011e (-0.13t) (59)
P7= 0.000005 P0, P8 = 0.00014 P0, P9 = 0.00001 P0
Where, P0 and Ass are calculated from equations (22)
and (23) and equal 0.97 and 0.9995 respectively.
64 © 2018 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 12, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665)
∑4i=1(0.0017+0.0012+0.001+0.0014) (62)
Then the system maintainability at time t is as follows:
Figure 5: Effect of turbines repair rate (μ) on system availability
M (t) = 1- e (-0.1196 t) (63) at steady state.
An analysis of system performance has been carried out Fig. (6), depicts RS of the system under consideration at
at different values of failure and repair rates of system real data of λ and µ mentioned previously in Table (3),
components. The effects of these values on the system along operating time and it is concluded that the system
availability, reliability, and maintainability are discussed in reliability decreases with time and the system reliability
the following sections. after 5000 running hours is 0.59%.
Figure 7:(a) and (b) Effect of failure rate (λ) on the system reliability at transient state.
6. Conclusion
5.3. Maintainability Analysis
A RAM model of a 3-out-of-4 system has been
Fig. (8) Illustrates the maintainability of each turbine proposed based on the Markovian approach. Availability at
as well as Ms of the overall system at real data along steady state, reliability at transient state and
first 100 operating hours. It could be seen that the maintainability equations have been formulated. A real
maintainability of T4 is lower than the data of Oil Gas Egyptian Company was applied to obtain
maintainability of the other components; this is due the system reliability, availability, and maintainability. A
to the lower value of its repair rate than the others. parametric investigation of various values of system
failure and repair rates on system reliability, availability,
and maintainability, as well as their effects on the system
performance, are presented. The finding of this study could
be concluded as follows:
The proposed RAM model could be used as an
integrated model, to investigate system reliability,
availability, and maintainability of 3-out-of-4 system.
It could be also used to determine the most critical
component of the system.
The proposed model helps maintenance engineers and
designers to evaluate the system performance and
carried out modification.
Figure 8: Maintainability of each turbine and the overall system
versus time. The implementation of the proposed model revealed
To investigate the effect of repair rate of overall system that the system availability at steady state is 99%, and
on Ms along the first 100 hrs of operating time, the repair the system maintainability is 0.99% but the system
rate of the system is assumed within range (0.0 to 0.21 reliability after 5000 running hours is 0.59%. This
with incremental value 0.03) as shown in Fig. (9). It could means that, an enhancement required improving the
be seen that the increase in the system repair rate increases system reliability and reducing the system down time.
Ms. It is observed that T3 is the most critical component in
the system and need special attention with careful
observation to reduce it’s down time and increase the
system performance.
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© 2018 Jordan Journal of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. All rights reserved - Volume 12, Number 1 (ISSN 1995-6665) 67
Appendix (A)
D= (μ 1S3 + μ 2S3 + μ 3S3 + S λ13 + 3.0S3 λ1 + S λ23 + 3.0S3 λ2 + S λ33 + 3.0S3 λ3 + S λ43 + 3.0S3 λ4 + λ1 λ23 + λ13
λ2 + λ1 λ33 + λ13 λ3 + λ1 λ43 + λ2 λ33 + λ13 λ4 + λ23 λ3 + λ2 λ43 + h23 λ4 + λ3 λ43 + λ33 λ4 + S4 + 3.0S2 λ12 + 3.0S2 λ22
+ 3.0S2 λ32 + 3.0S2 λ42 + 2.0 λ12 λ22 + 2.0 λ12 λ32 +2.0 λ12 λ42 + 2.0 λ22h32 + 2.0 λ22 λ42 + 2.0 λ32 λ42 + μ1μ2S2 +
μ1μ3S2 + μ2μ3S2 + μ1S λ12 + 2.0 μ1S2 λ1+ μ1S λ22 + 2.0 μ1S2 λ2 + μ2S λ12 + 2.0 μ2S2 λ1 + μ1S λ32 + 2.0 μ1S2 λ3 +
μ2S λ22 + 2.0 μ2S2λ2 + μ3S λ12 + 2.0 μ3S2 λ1 + μ1S λ42 + 2.0 μ1S2 λ4 + μ2S λ32 + 2.0 μ2S2 λ3 + μ3S λ22 + 2.0 μ3S2 λ2
+ μ2S λ42 + 2.0μ2S2 λ4 + μ3S λ32 + 2.0 μ3S2 λ3 + μ3S λ42 + 2.0 μ3S2 λ1+ μ1 λ1 λ22 + μ1 λ12 λ2 + μ1 λ1 λ32 + μ1 λ12 λ3
+ μ2 λ1 λ22 + μ2 λ12 λ2 + μ1 λ2 λ32 + μ1 λ22 λ3 + μ2 λ1 λ32 + μ2 λ12 λ3 + μ3 λ1 λ22 + μ3 λ12 λ2 + μ1 λ2 λ42 + μ1 λ22 λ4 +
μ2 λ1 λ42 + μ2 λ2 λ32 + μ2 λ12 λ4+ μ2 λ22 λ3 + μ3 λ1 λ32 + μ3λ12 λ3 + μ1 λ3 λ42 + μ1 λ32 λ4 + μ3 λ1 λ42 + μ3 λ2 λ32 + μ3
λ12 λ4 + μ3 λ22 λ3 + μ2 λ3 λ42 + μ2λ32 λ4 + μ3λ2 λ42 + μ3 λ22 λ4 + 5.0S λ1 λ22 + 5.0S λ12 λ2 + 7.0S2 λ1 λ2 + 5.0S λ1 λ32
+ 5.0S λ12 λ3 + 7.0S2 λ1 λ3 + 5.0S λ1 λ42 + 5.0S λ2 λ32 + 5.0S λ12 λ4 + 5.0S λ22 λ3 + 7.0S2 λ1 λ4 + 7.0S2 λ2 λ3+ 5.0S
λ2 λ42 + 5.0S λ22 λ4+ 7.0S2 λ2 λ4+ 5.0S λ3 λ42 + 5.0S λ32 λ4+ 7.0S2 λ3 λ4+ 4.0 λ1 λ2 λ32 + 4.0 λ1 λ22 λ3 + 4.0 λ12 λ2
λ3 + 4.0 λ1 λ2 λ42 + 4.0 λ1 λ22 λ4+ 4.0 λ12 λ2 λ4 + 4.0 λ1 λ3 λ42 + 4.0 λ1 λ32 λ4+ 4.0 λ12 λ3 λ4 + 4.0 λ2 λ3 λ42 + 4.0 λ2
λ32 λ4+ 4.0 λ22 λ3 λ4 + μ1 μ2 μ3S + μ1μ2S λ1+ μ1 μ2S λ1 + μ1 μ3S λ1+ μ1 μ2S λ3+ μ1 μ3S λ2+ μ2 μ3S λ1+ μ1 μ2S λ4+
μ1 μ3S λ3+ μ2 μ3S λ2+ μ1 μ3S λ4+ μ2 μ3S λ3 + μ2 μ3S λ4+ μ1 μ2λ1 λ3 + μ1 μ3 λ1 λ2+ μ1 μ2 λ2 λ3+ μ2 μ3 λ1 λ2+ μ1 μ3 λ2
λ3+ μ2 μ3 λ1 λ3+ μ1 μ2 λ3 λ4+ μ1 μ3 λ2 λ4 + μ2 μ3 λ1 λ4 + 3.0 μ1S λ1 λ2+ 3.0 μ1S λ1 λ3 + 3.0 μ2 S λ1 λ2 + 2.0 μ1S λ1
λ4+ 3.0 μ1S λ2 λ3+ 3.0 μ2S λ1 λ3 + 3.0 μ3 S λ1 λ2+ 3.0 μ1S λ2 λ4+ 3.0 μ2S λ1 λ4+ 3.0 μ2S λ2 λ3+ 3.0 μ3 S λ1 λ3+ 3.0
μ1S λ3 λ4+ 2.0 μ2S λ2 λ4+ 3.0 μ3 S λ1 λ4+ 3.0 μ3S λ2 λ3+ 3.0 μ2S λ3 λ4 + 3.0 μ3S λ2 λ4+ 2.0 μ3 S λ3 λ4+ 2.0 μ1 λ1 λ2
λ3+ 2.0 μ1 λ1 λ2 λ4+ 2.0 μ2 λ1 λ2 λ3+ 2.0 μ1 λ1 λ3 λ4+ 2.0 μ2 λ1 λ2 λ4+ 2.0 μ3 λ1 λ2 λ3+ 2.0 μ1 λ2 λ3 λ4 + 2.0 μ2 λ1 λ3
λ4+ 2.0 μ3 λ1 λ2 λ4+ 2.0 μ2 λ2 λ3 λ4+ 2.0 μ3 λ1 λ3 λ4+ 2.0 μ3 λ2 λ3 λ4+ 11.0S λ1 λ2 λ3+ 11.0S λ1 λ2 λ4+ 11.0S λ1 λ3
λ4+ 11.0S λ2 λ3 λ4+ 9.0 λ1 λ2λ3 λ4)