There are 2 supernatural animals: dragon and unicorn.

2
P(A and S) = __
8
=1__
4
The probability that Jozo will randomly choose an animal or a supernatural
creature is
P(A or S) = P(A) + P(S) − P(A and S)
1 + __
= __ 1 − __
1
2 2 4
1
= 1 − __
4
3
= __
4
3 , or 75%, probability of randomly picking an animal
Therefore, Jozo has a __
4
or a supernatural creature.

Your Turn
What is the probability that Jozo will randomly pick a flying creature or one
that can cast spells?

Consolidate and Debrief

Key Concepts

Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time.

To calculate the probability of either mutually exclusive events A or
B occurring, use the additive principle (rule of sum) for mutually
exclusive events:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Non-mutually exclusive events can occur at the same time.
To calculate the number of outcomes included in non-mutually
exclusive events A and B, use the principle of inclusion and
exclusion:
n(A or B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A and B)
To calculate the probability of either non-mutually exclusive events A
or B occurring, use the additive principle for non-mutually exclusive
events:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

1.4 Mutually Exclusive and Non-Mutually Exclusive Events • MHR 41

 Reflect
R1. Copy and complete the Frayer model shown
Definition Characteristics
for the term “mutually exclusive events.”

R2. a) What is the principle of inclusion and exclusion? MUTUALLY

EXCLUSIVE
b) When and why is it important to use it? Examples Non-examples
EVENTS

R3. Provide an example of non-mutually exclusive events

that are different from those already shown.

Practise b) Which of the scenarios in a) represent:

• a mutually exclusive event?
Choose the best answer for #1 and #2. • a non-mutually exclusive event?
1. What is the probability of rolling a 3 or 4 Explain your answers.
using a standard die?
4. Application Every Friday night, Rutger’s
1
A __ 1
B __ 1
C __ 1
D __
6 4 3 2 family orders take-out. The table shows their
ordering habits for the past several weeks.
2. The card game euchre uses only the cards
shown from a standard deck of playing cards. Type of Food Tally
Pizza ||||
Mexican ||
Burgers ||||
Chicken |||
Rutger’s favourites are Mexican and chicken.
What is the experimental probability that
Rutger will get one of his favourites next
Friday?

5. What is the probability of rolling a sum that

is not a 7 or an 11 with a pair of dice?
What is the probability of randomly drawing
an ace or a king from a euchre deck of cards? 6. Refer to the euchre deck of cards in #2.
5
A ___ B __1 7
C ___ 1
D __ a) Determine the probability of randomly
12 2 12 3 drawing either an ace or a spade from the
deck.
Apply
b) What is the probability of randomly
3. Communication Kara’s drawing a red card or a diamond from
shirt collection is the deck?
shown below.
c) What is the probability of not drawing a
Her shirts are jumbled face card or a club?
in a drawer.
a) Determine the 7. Refer to the euchre deck of cards in #2.
probability that Kara randomly draws a) What is the probability of randomly
each of the following: drawing a 9 or a 10 or a diamond from
• a pink shirt or a purple shirt the deck?
• a pink shirt or a short-sleeved shirt b) Explain how you solved this problem.

42 MHR • Chapter 1
8. Thinking Deer Button is a game played by 10. Open Question A bag contains three blue
people of the Woodland Nations. Players use marbles and some other marbles. There is
eight two-colour counters made from deer’s a 50% probability that a randomly chosen
antlers, like the ones shown below. marble is either green or yellow.
a) What could the contents of the bag be?
b) Provide a different answer that is also
correct.

11. Thinking Marie is playing a board game and

can win if she rolls a sum of either 6 or 8 or
doubles with a standard pair of dice. What
Players take turns throwing all eight deer are the odds against Marie winning on a
buttons at the same time. They win beans given throw?
according to this scoring table: 12. Open Question Create and solve a probability
Number of Buttons of problem involving mutually exclusive
the Same Colour Beans Awarded events.
8 10
7 4
Extend
6 2 13. Use algebraic reasoning to prove that the
other 0
probability of two non-mutually exclusive
events, A and B, can be calculated using
a) Determine the probability that a player
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B).
will score 10 points on a given throw.
b) What is the probability of scoring at least 14. Application Renzo knows that his first-
4 points on a throw? semester timetable will include biology,
c) Explain how you solved this problem.
chemistry, English, and a study period,
but he does not know when each will
Achievement Check
occur during the day. Two periods run in
the morning and two periods run in the
9. Juliette puts these letter tiles into her afternoon. The time of day for each course
handbag. does not change.
a) What is the probability that Renzo will
have both science classes in the morning
or both in the afternoon?
a) If Juliette then reaches into the handbag
and randomly takes out one tile, b) Explain how you solved this problem.
determine the probability of each of c) Discuss any assumptions you made in
the following occurring: your solution.
• She chooses an “e” or a “t.”
• She chooses a red letter or an “e.” 15. Thinking
• She chooses a capital letter or a vowel. a) Use algebraic reasoning to develop the
• She does not choose a yellow letter additive principle for three non-mutually
or a “t.” exclusive events.
b) Draw a Venn diagram to represent each b) Open Question Design a question that can
scenario in part a). be solved using the result from part a).
c) Open Question Create a probability Then solve the problem.
question using these tiles for which the
answer is between 25% and 40%.

1.4 Mutually Exclusive and Non-Mutually Exclusive Events • MHR 43

Extend b) I used the principle of inclusion and exclusion.
9. Answers may vary. 8. a) 1
____ 9
b) ____
a) I chose 5. Draw Cards. You can choose from 1 to 3 128 128
decks, with or without replacement, and a 52-card c) There are five possible outcomes to this game:
deck or a 32-card deck. Each card is shown in a 8 same, 7 same, 6 same, 5 same, or 4 same. If there
table along with number and suit. are 3 the same, then there are 5 of the other colour,
b) What is the theoretical probability of drawing a and so on. So, the probability of 8 buttons the
heart from a deck of cards, with replacement? same colour is 20%. Scoring at least 4 points means
Conduct a large number of trials. How does the 7 or 8 buttons the same colour. So, the probability
experimental probability of drawing a heart from a of 7 or 8 buttons the same colour is 40%.
deck of cards, with replacement, compare? 10. Answers may vary.
The theoretical probability of drawing a heart from a) Since there are 3 blue marbles and the probability
1. of green or yellow is 50%, there must be at least
a deck of cards, with replacement, is __
4 3 marbles that belong to the mutually exclusive
For the experimental probability, run repeated event of “green or yellow.” This could mean that
trials, save the data, check for the number of hearts there is 1 green and 2 yellow marbles along with
(= 1) in the list and divide by the number of trials. the 3 blue marbles.
10. Answers may vary. b) Two green and 1 yellow marble along with the
3 blue marbles.
1.4 Mutually Exclusive and Non-Mutually Exclusive 11. 11 : 7
Events, pages 34−43 12. Answer may vary. What is the probability of rolling
either doubles or a sum of 5 with a standard pair of
Example 1 Your Turn
5
dice? ___
60% 18
Example 2 Your Turn Extend
50% 13. From the principle of inclusion and exclusion,
n(A or B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A and B).
Example 3 Your Turn
n(A or B)
about 67% P(A or B) = _________
n(S)
Example 4 Your Turn n(A) + n(B) − n(A and B)
50% = _________________________
n(S)
Reflect n(A) _____
_____ n(B) ___________
n(A and B)
= + −
R1. n(S) n(S) n(S)
Definition Characteristics
= P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)
cannot occur events that have
simultaneously different attributes
1
14. a) __
3
MUTUALLY b) Answers may vary. I solved this using a tree
EXCLUSIVE diagram with four time periods and looked for
Examples EVENTS Non-examples outcomes that included B and C in periods one and
Coin: either heads Card: red card two or B and C in periods three and four.
or tails, not both. Card: and face card c) Answers may vary. I assumed that any of Renzo’s
heart, diamond, club or
classes could be in any time period.
spade, not a combination
15. a) Starting with n(A) + n(B) + n(C), regions A and B,
B and C, and A and C will be counted twice, while
R2. a) If A and B are non-mutually exclusive events, then
region A and B and C is counted three times.
the total number of favourable outcomes is:
n(A or B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A and B).
b) When events are non-mutually exclusive. It
ensures that items are not counted twice. A 2 B
R3. Answers may vary. Rolling doubles or a sum 6. A and B
1 1
Practise
1. C 2. D A and B
Apply 2 and C 2
3, A and C 3 B and C
3. a) pink shirt or purple shirt: __
5
4
pink shirt or a short-sleeved shirt: __
5 1
b) first scenario: mutually exclusive events. The shirt
C
cannot be pink and purple.
second scenario: non-mutually exclusive events.
One shirt is pink and short-sleeved.
4. about 36%
5. about 78%
6. a) 37.5% b) 50% c) 62.5%
7. a) 50%

Answers • MHR 485

 Subtract the regions R2. The second scenario is more likely, because the first
n(A and B) + n(B and C) + n(A and C): scenario involves multiple events while the second
n(A) + n(B) + n(C) – n(A and B) – n(B and C) only involves a single event.
– n(A and C) R3. a) Conditional probability is the probability of a
second event occurring, given that a first event
occurred.
A B b) Answers may vary. Three green marbles and two
1
yellow marbles are placed into a bag. What is the
A and B
1 1 probability of randomly drawing a second green
marble given that a green marble was already
A and B
chosen?
1 and C 1 What is the probability of randomly drawing
A and C 0 B and C a green marble followed by a green marble,
assuming that the first marble is replaced before
1 the second marble is drawn?
R4. Answers may vary. A probability tree diagram makes
C it easier to see the event branch of interest and aids in
the calculation of probabilities.
This results in excluding the count for region A and Practise
B and C altogether. Add the region A and B and C. 1. C 2. B 3. D
n(A or B or C) = n(A) + n(B) + n(C) – n(A and B) Apply
– n(B and C) – n(A and C) + n(A and B and C) 4. a) 12.5% b) about 16.7%
Then, divide both sides by n(S). c) Part a) involves independent events, while part b)
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) involves dependent events.
– P(A and B) – P(B and C) – P(A and C) 5. a) Yes; both players have the same probability of
+ P(A and B and C) winning a point on a given trial (about 4.2%).
b) Answers may vary. What is the probability of b) Answers may vary. Player A wins a point if the
rolling a sum of 6 or doubles or an even sum? result is Red-1. Player B wins a point if the result is
In this case, n(A) = 5, n(B) = 6, n(C) = 18, Green or Blue-4. Then, player A has about a 4.2%
n(A and B) = 1, n(B and C) = 6, n(A and C) = 5, 1 , or
probability of winning and player B has a ___
n(A and B and C) = 1, and n(S) = 36. 16
6.25% of winning.
P(A or B or C)
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A and B) 6. 4 sales
– P(B and C) – P(A and C) + P(A and B and C) 7. a) 6.25%
5 + ___
6 + ___
18 − ___ 6 − ___
1 − ___ 5 + ___
1 b) first path decision is correct: 12.5%, first two path
= ___
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 decision are correct: 25%
18
= ___ 8. a) about 9.1% b) about 0.43%
36 c) 0%
= 0.5
10. a) about 0.14, assume that the crowd’s experimental
The probability of rolling a sum of 6 or doubles or
probability of 85% is accurate
an even sum is 50%.
b) about 9 times
1.5 Independent and Dependent Events, pages 44−55 Extend
11. a) 1 : 7 b) 11 : 5
Example 1 Your Turn 12. Answers may vary. In part a), the superior team would
6.25% have a higher probability of winning. In part b), the
Example 2 Your Turn probability of playing seven games would decrease.
24% 13. No. In general, P(A|B) will not equal P(B|A).
14. Answers may vary.
Example 3 Your Turn
25% Chapter 1 Review, pages 56−57
Example 4 Your Turn 48 ≈ 32.21%,
24 ≈ 16.11%, green: ____
1. a) blue: ____
10% 149 149
51 ≈ 34.23%, purple: ____
yellow: ____ 26 ≈ 17.45%
Example 5 Your Turn 149 149
15 sales b) Answers may vary. blue sector: about
Reflect 58°, green sector: about 116°, yellow
R1. a) Independent events have no influence on each sector: about 123°, purple sector:
other’s probability of occurring, while dependent about 63°.
events do influence the probability of the other c) Yes; it is based on experimental
event occurring. probability.
b) Answers may vary. Drawing two cards from a deck 2. a) 0.6 b) 168 throws
with replacement versus drawing two cards from a
deck without replacement.

486 MHR • Answers