WWW Sciencealert Com Why Are Millions of People in Texas Wit

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A jogger in Seattle, Washington on February 13, 2021. (David Ryder/Getty Images)

ENVIRONMENT
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Millions of Americans Have No Power in This Extreme, Nation-
Wide Storm. Here's Why
MICHAEL E. WEBBER, THE CONVERSATION 16 FEBRUARY 2021
Amid record cold temperatures and skyrocketing energy demand, utilities across the central US
have ordered rolling blackouts to ration electricity, leaving millions of people without power. Energy
expert Michael E. Webber explains why weather extremes can require such extreme steps.
1. The Plains states have a lot of wild weather. Why is this cold wave such a problem for utilities?
The central US has freezes, heat waves, windstorms, droughts and oods. All of these events stress
the electric grid, pipeline networks, roads, rail and waterways.
Right now in my state of Texas, ERCOT, a nonpro t corporation that manages the power grid for
most of the state, is imposing rolling blackouts because demand for electric heating is very high. So
is the Southwest Power Pool, which serves customers in 14 states from North Dakota to Oklahoma.
About 60 percent of homes in Texas have electric heat, and most of the rest use natural gas or
propane. Normally our peak electric demand is on summer afternoons for air conditioning. But in
this sustained cold, electric demand is spiking to keep homes comfortable and pipes from freezing.
This storm is more extreme than the most severe winter conditions that ERCOT typically plans for.
At this time of year, power plants that run on coal or natural gas often shut down for planned
maintenance ahead of the summer cooling season. That means we have less capacity available
than usual right now.
To meet the di erence between high demand and low capacity, utilities are cycling power on and
o to di erent neighborhoods or regions of Texas in a methodical way to keep things in balance.
If they didn't do this, there would be a risk of a much wider-scale blackout, which would be
catastrophic and life-threatening.
2. How do utilities plan for this kind of extreme weather?
Utilities everywhere follow the weather very closely. Temperature changes a ect the need for
heating and cooling, which drives demand for electricity and natural gas. Meteorological conditions
a ect the availability of wind and solar power.
Thermal power plants – which burn coal, natural gas or biomass – also need a lot of water for
cooling to run e ciently, as do nuclear power plants. If climate change warms rivers or reduces
their water levels, it could force those power plants to turn o or reduce their output.
Weather forecasting has improved as satellites become more abundant and computer models
become more sophisticated. Utilities can take steps in advance of a major storm, such as asking
customers to preheat their homes. For ratepayers who will do this, the utility may adjust their
thermostats to reduce power ow when demand is high.
Power providers can also ask large industrial customers to temporarily shut down factories to
reduce electricity demand. And they can give hourly or minute-by-minute updates to customers
about rolling blackouts and provide real-time maps of power outages.
Utilities work year-round to harden the grid against extreme weather. They may build berms to
protect power plants against oods, ll reservoirs in preparation for droughts, replace equipment
that can get overheated in the summer or weatherize power plants for cold conditions.
Almost exactly a decade ago, in February 2011, Texas su ered a signi cant series of rolling
blackouts when cold weather forced dozens of coal and natural gas power plants o ine. This cold
snap is testing the upgrades utilities made after that event.
3. Does having a diverse fuel mix protect against energy crunches?
Texas is blessed with multiple energy sources. Much of it is produced locally, including natural gas,
wind and solar power. Over the past 15 years, the state has diversi ed its fuel mix: Coal use has
dropped, wind and solar have grown, and nuclear and natural gas use have held steady.
Each of these options has pros and cons. Wind and solar do not require water cooling, so they work
ne during droughts and oods. But they vary based on wind patterns, cloud cover and time of day.
Nuclear power is reliable, but sometimes nuclear plants have to reduce their output during heat
waves or droughts if their cooling water is too hot or scarce.
Natural gas is a high performer, but in the 2011 Texas cold snap, gas plants struggled to keep up
with demand because many homes and businesses were using the fuel for heat.
That reduced the pressure in gas pipelines, which made it hard to physically move gas to turbines
that needed the fuel to generate electricity.
Much of the coal burned in Texas power plants comes from Wyoming over a sprawling rail network
that can be disrupted if a bridge or section of track is out of commission for repairs. Utilities store
30 days or more of coal in piles near their power plants, but those piles can freeze or be ooded, as
occurred when Hurricane Harvey swamped Houston in 2017.
Because all of these options fail in di erent ways, a diverse mix is the best basis for a robust
system. Today Texas has three times as much wind power-generating capacity as it did in 2011,
which may help stave o the worst risks of a statewide blackout.
This extra wind will be especially important because about 30 percent of ERCOT's generating
capacity is o ine right now, reportedly due to natural gas shortages.
Some West Texas wind turbines have also shut down due to icing, but turbines in other parts of the
state are partially o setting those losses. ERCOT will investigate all power losses after this storm
passes and use what it learns to make new improvements to its system.
4. California has had rolling blackouts recently, too. Is this a national risk?
California is a big state with power sources in many locations, so it relies on a sprawling network of
wires and poles to move electrons from one place to another. Those power lines can sag when it's
hot out and fail when high winds blow trees down onto the wires.
Aging transmission and distribution networks can also spark wild res, which is a growing risk as the
e ects of climate change worsen drought conditions in the West. To manage those risks, California
grid operators will preemptively turn o the power to prevent wild res.
They also did this in August 2020 to ration power during a heat wave.
Weather-related power outages are increasing across the US as climate change produces more
extreme storms and temperature swings.
States that design their buildings and infrastructure for hot weather may need to plan for more big
chills, and cold-weather states can expect more heat waves. As conditions in Texas show, there's no
time to waste in getting more weather-ready.
Michael E. Webber, Josey Centennial Professor of Energy Resources, University of Texas at Austin.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the
original article.

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A jogger in Seattle, Washington on February 13, 2021. (David Ryder/Getty Images)

3. Does having a diverse fuel mix protect against energy crunches?

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