LAWS OF PROBABLITY

LAWS OF ADDITION
General laws of Addition;

P(X  Y) = P(X) + P(Y) — P(X  Y)

-Where x, y are events and (X  Y) is the intersection of x and y

-The expression P(X  Y) denotes the probability of x occurring or y occurring or both x
and y occurring.
-Example;
Draw a single card from a deck of 52 playing cards. Let Q be the event that the card is a
queen and H be the event that the card is heart. What is P (Q  H) ?
P (Q  H) =P (Q) + P (H)—P (Q  H)
4 13 1 16
P (Q  H) = + — = OR 0.307
52 52 52 52
Probability Matrix
In addition to the formulas, another useful tool in solving problems is probability matrix.
-it is a two dimensional table that displays the marginal and the intersection probabilities
of a given problem.

Example;
Yankelovich partners conduct a survey for the American society of interior designers in
which were asked which changes in office design would increase productivity.
Respondents were allowed to answer more than one type of design change. the number
one change that that 70% of the worker said would increase productivity was reducing
noise .In second place was more storage/filling space, selected by 67%.If one of the
survey respondents was randomly selected and asked what office design changes would
increase workers productivity.

Required;
What is the probability that this person would select reducing noise or more
storage/filling space?

OFFICE DESIGN PROBLEM PROBABLITY MATRIX

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 Increase storage
Space

Yes No
Noise yes 0.70 0.56 0.14
Reduction
No 0.11 0.19 0.30
0.67 0.33 1.00

Solution;
Let N denote noise and S denote storage
P  N  S  =P  N  +P  S  -P  N  S 
P  N  S  = 0.70+0.67-0.56
P  N  S  =0.81

Example 2;
A small company has 155 employees who have been hired in to one of four types of
positions. If an employee of the company is selected randomly, what is the probability
that the employee is female or a professional worker?

Company human resource data (Raw value matrix)

Gender
Male Female
Type of position;
Managerial 11 8 3
Professional 55 31 13
Technical 69 52 17
Clerical 31 9 22
100 55 155

P (F  P) =P (F) +P (P) — P (F  P)
P (F  P) = 0.355 + 0.284 — 0.084
P (F  P) = 0.555

OR

3+13+17+22+31=86

86
P (F  P) = =0.555
155
COMPLEMENT OF A UNION

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The probability that neither x nor y is in the out come.

P (neither x nor y) =P (not x  not y) =1—P(X  Y)

-Special laws of additions

If x and are mutually exclusive

-P(X  Y) = P(X) + P(Y)

Laws of multiplication

The probability of the inter section of the two events P  x  y  is called the joint
probability. The general law of multiplication is used to find the joint probability.

General laws of multiplication;

- P  x  y  = P(X).P  y/x  =P  Y  .P  X/Y 

The notation x  y means that both x and y must happen. The general laws of
multiplication gives the probability that both events x and y will occur at the same time.

Example; Probability Matrix of company human resource data

Gender
Male Female
Type of position
Managerial 0.071 0.52 0.019
Professional 0.284 0.200 0.084
Technical 0.445 0.335 0.110
Clerical 0.200 0.058 0.142
0.645 0.355 1.00
Required;
-The probability that a randomly selected worker is male and a technical worker?
P  M  T  =0.335
Example; 2
A company has 140 employees of which 30 are supervisors. Eighty of the employees are
married, and 20% of the married employees are supervisors .If a company employees is

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randomly selected, what is the probability that the employee is married and is a
supervisor?
Solution;
Let M denote married and S denote supervisor
P  M  S  =?
80
P M  = =0.5741
140
P  S/M  =0.2

P  M  S  = P  M  . P  S/M 
= (0.5741) (0.2) =0.1143
Hence, 0.1143 % of the 140 employees are married and are supervisors.

Special laws of multiplication

If x and y are independent

P  x  y  = P(X).P  Y 

Example;
A study found that 28% of US adults believe that the ATM has had a most
significant impact on every day life .Another study examined employee view on team
sprit in the work place and discovered that 72% of all employees believe that working as
part of a team lowers stress.
Let A denote ATM and S denote team work lower stress.
P A  =0.28

P  S  =0.72
P  A  S  = P  A  . P  S  =(0.28).(0.72)
P  A  S  =0.2016 OR 20.16%
Laws of conditional probablity
-Are based on knowledge of one of the variables.

P ( X Y ) P( X ).P(Y / X )
P  X/Y  = =
P (Y ) P (Y )

The conditional probability of (x/y) is the probability that x will occur given y.
Example;
Suppose the following data were collected on 400 students regarding their class
participation and exam status.
Table 2.2 Exam result of students

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 Class activity
High(H) Average(A) Low(L) Total

Exam results
Pass(P) 150 90 60 300
Fail (F) 40 30 30 100

Total 190 120 90 400

-What is the probability that a student selected at random will be a low performer given
that he failed in the exam result?
Solution;
P ( L  F ) 0.075
P (L/F) = = =0.3
P( F ) 0.25
Bay’s Rule
-Is a formula that extends the use of the laws of conditional probability to allow revision
of
P ( X i ).P(Y / X i )
P  X i /Y  =
P( X 1 ).P(Y / X 1 )  P ( X 2 ).P(Y / X 2 )  .........  P ( X n ).P (Y / X n )
original probabilities with new information.

Example;
A particular type of printer ribbon is produced by only two companies, Ethio ribbon
company and South jersey products .Suppose Ethio produces 65% of the ribbon and that
South jersey produces 35%. 8% of the ribbon produced by Ethio are defective and 12%
of the south jersey ribbon are defective. A customer purchase a new ribbon

1. What is the probability that Ethio produce the ribbon?

2. What is the probability that South jersey produce the ribbon?

The ribbon is tested and it is defective-Now

1. What is the probability that Ethio produce the ribbon?
2. What is the probability that South jersey produce the ribbon?
Solution;
Table

Bayesian table for revision of ribbon problem probabilities.

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 Prior Conditional Joint Posterior or
probability Probability Probability revised
Probability
Event P(E i ) P(d/E i ) P(E i  d)

Ethio 0.65 0.08 0.052 0.052

=0.055
0.094
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South jersey 0.35 0.12 0.042 0.042

=0.447
0.94
P(defective)=0.94