MATH 230 Probability: Exercise 6

S. Bashir
Spring, 2019

Problem 1
From past experience, it is known that 90% of one-year-old children can distinguish
their mothers voice from the voice of a similar sounding female. A random sample of
5 one year-old children are given this voice recognition test.

a. What probability distribution describes the number of children who recognize their
mothers voice? (give the name , parameters). What is the expected value and
standard deviation ?

b. Find the probability that at least 2 but not more than 4 children recognize their
mothers voice.

.........
Solution:

√
a. Binomial: parameters; (n = 5, p = 0.9).E(x) = 5×0.9 = 4.5; SD = 5 × 0.9 × 0.1

b.

P (2 ≤ X ≤ 4) = P (X ≤ 4) − P (X < 2)
= F (4) − F (1)
F (4) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4)
= 0.4095
F (1) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)
= 0.0005
F (4) − F (1) = 0.409
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Problem 2
Hospital records show that 75% of patients suffering from a disease die due to that
disease. What is the probability that 4 out of the 6 randomly selected patients
recover?

.........
Solution:

 
6
× 0.254 × 0.752
4

Problem 3
A salesman has found that the probability of a sale on a single contact is approxi-
mately 0.03. If the salesman contacts 100 prospects, what is the probability that he
will make at least one sale?

.........
Solution:

p = 0.03; n = 100 Large n & small p, λ = np = 100 × 0.03 = 3 is small, so Poisson

approximation to Binomial assuming λ = 3

P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X < 1) = 1 − P (X = 0) = 1 − e−3 = 0.9502

Using Binomial,

P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X < 1) = 1 − P (X = 0) = 1 − 0.97100 = 0.9524

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6

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Problem 4
The mean number of automobiles entering a mountain tunnel per 2-minute period is 1.
An excessive number of cars entering the tunnel during a brief period of time produces
a hazardous situation. Find the probability that the number of autos entering the
tunnel during 2-minute period exceeds 3.
.........
Solution:

λ = 1 per 2-minute

P (X > 3) = 1 − P (X ≤ 3)
= 1 − [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)]
e−1 e−1 e−1
= 1 − e−1 − − −
1! 2! 3!
1 1
= 1 − e−1 [2 + + ]
2 6
8 −1
= 1− e
3

Problem 5
The probability that at most 4 radar sets will detect an enemy plane is 0.4095; while
the probability that at most 3 radar sets will detect an enemy plane is 0.0815. If we
have 5 radar sets, what is the probability that exactly 4 sets will detect the plane?
.........
Solution:

P (X ≤ 3) = 0.0815
P (X ≤ 4) = 0.4095
P (X = 4) = P (X ≤ 4) − P (X ≤ 3)
= 0.328

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6

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Problem 6
It is known that 10% of a brand of television tubes will burn out before their guarantee
has expired. If 1000 tubes are sold, find the expected value and variance of the number
of original tubes that must be replaced.

.........
Solution:

E(Y ) = np
= 1000 × 0.1 = 100
V ar(Y ) = np(1 − p)
= 1000 × 0.1 × 0.9 = 90

Problem 7
An auditor reviewing the invoices of a small company finds that there are errors in
1.5% of them. If the auditor looks at 500 invoices, what is the probability that he
finds more than 3 invoices with errors?

.........
Solution:

λ = np = 500 × 0.015 = 7.5

P (X > 3) = 1 − P (X ≤ 3)
= 1 − [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)]
−7.5 e−7.5 × 7.5 e−7.5 × 7.52 e−7.5 × 7.53
= 1−e − − −
1! 2! 3!
2 3
7.5 7.5
= 1 − e−7.5 [1 + 7.5 + + ]
2 6
= 1 − 106.94e−7.5

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6

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Problem 8
The quality of computer disks is measured by sending the disks through a certifier
which counts the number of missing pulses. A certain brand of computer disks av-
erages 0.1 missing pulse per disk. Find the probability the next disk inspected will
have more than one missing pulse.
.........
Solution:

λ = 0.1 per disk

P (X > 1) = 1 − P (X ≤ 1)
= 1 − P (X = 0) − P (X = 1)
= 1 − e−0.1 − e−0.1 × 0.1
= 0.0047

Problem 9
The number of accidents on a US-131 highway average 4.4 per year. What is the
probability that there are more than two accidents next year on US-131?
.........
Solution:

λ = 4.4 per year

P (X > 2) = 1 − P (X ≤ 2)
= 1 − [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)]
−4.4 e−4.4 4.41 e−4.4 4.42
= 1−e − −
1! 2!
= 1 − 15.08e−4.4
= 0.815

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6

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Problem 10
As a purchasing agent, you are responsible for selecting sources of supply for man-
ufactured components to use in your firm’s production process. The salesman for a
certain supplier has indicated that they can supply an electronic sub-assembly that
has a defect rate of 1.1%-well below your current supplier’s defect rate. You accept
100 sub-assemblies for evaluation, and find that there were four defects. Using the
Poisson approximation to the binomial, how likely is it to get at most 4 defects out
of 100?

.........
Solution:

n = 100; p = 0.011; λ = 100 × 0.011 = 1.1

P (X ≤ 4) = [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4)]
−1.1 e−1.1 1.1 e−1.1 1.12 e−1.1 1.13 e−1.1 1.14
= e + + + +
1! 2! 3! 4!
= 0.9945

Problem 11
A potential customer for a fire insurance policy possesses a home in an area that,
according to experience, may sustain a total loss in a given year with probability
of .001 and a 50% loss with probability .01. Ignoring all other partial losses, what
premium should the insurance company charge for a yearly policy if it only wants to
break even (no profit) on all $20,000 policies of this type?

.........
Solution:

Let Y is the amount paid by the company, let C is the premium charged

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6

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y p(y)
20,000 0.001
10,000 0.01
0 1-0.001-0.01
=0.989

E(Y ) = 120
Break even means E(C − Y ) = 0, ∴ E(C) = 120

Problem 12
The manager of a stockroom in a factory has constructed the following distribution
for the daily demand (number of times used) for a particular tool.

y p(y)
0 0.1
1 0.5
2 0.4

It costs the factory $10 each time the tool is used. Find the mean and variance of
the daily cost of the tool.

.........
Solution:

The cost function is: C = 10Y

E(C) = 10E(Y )
= 10[0 + 0.5 + 2 × 0.4]
= 10(1.3) = 13
V ar(C) = 102 V ar(Y )
V ar(Y ) = E(Y 2 ) − [E(Y )]2
E(Y 2 ) = [0 + 0.5 + 4 × 0.4]
= 2.1
V ar(Y ) = 2.1 − (1.3)2
= 0.41
∴ V ar(C) = 102 (0.41)
= 41

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6

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Problem 13
It is known that diskettes produced by a certain company will be defective with
probability 0.01, independently of each other. The company sells the diskettes in
packages of size 10 and offers a money-back guarantee that at most 1 of the 10
diskettes in the package will be defective. If someone buys 3 packages, what is the
probability that he or she will return exactly 1 of them?

.........
Solution:

We return the package if more than 1 diskette is defective. Each package contains
10 independent diskettes, that is, n = 10. The probability that a diskette is defective
is p = 1/10 is constant.

P (X > 1) = 1 − P (X ≤ 1)
= 1 − [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)]
 
10 10
= 1 − 0.9 − × 0.11 × 0.99
1
= 0.264

The probability of returning an arbitrary package of 10 diskettes is 0.264;

A customer buys n = 3 packages, which should be independent. We know that

the probability of returning an arbitrary 10-pack of diskettes is 0.264 and this is the
probability of success, p = 0.264 and it is constant. Let X be the number of packages
out of 3 that customer will return. We want to find P (X = 1).
 
3
P (X = 1) = 0.2641 × (1 − 0.264)2
1

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6

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Problem 14
Approximately 80,000 marriages took place in the state of New York last year. Es-
timate the probability that for at least one of these couples both partners were born
on April 30

.........
Solution:

1 1
P(Couple has a common birthday)= 365 . 365
n is large and p is very small, using the Poisson approximation to the binomial.
1 2
λ = np = 80000 × ( 365 ) = 0.6
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X < 1)
= 1 − P (X = 0)
= 1 − e−0.6
= 0.4512

Problem 15
The monthly worldwide average number of airplane crashes of commercial airlines is
3.5. What is the probability that there will be at least 2 such accidents in the next
month?

.........
Solution:

λ = 3.5 per month

P (X ≥ 2) = 1 − P (X < 2)
= 1 − [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)]
= 1 − e−3.5 − 3.5e−3.5
= 1 − 4.5e−3.5
= 0.8641

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Problem 16
A recent survey states that 48% of mobile devices are iPhones. In order to learn more
about how the iPhone works, a student starts asking random people on campus if
they use an iPhone. Assume that the individuals on campus are independent. How
many students would he have to ask to be at least 90% certain of finding at
least one person who uses an iPhone?

.........
Solution:

P (X ≥ 1) ≥ 0.9
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X < 1) = 1 − 0.52n
∴ 1 − 0.52n ≥ 0.9
Solve for n & find n ≥ 3.52. He needs to survey at least 4 people to achieve his goal
of finding at least 1 person who uses iPhone with probability at least 0.90.

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 6