Benha University Production Planning & Control

Shoubra Faculty of Engineering Code: IND 201

1- Given the following data: prepare a forecast using each of these approaches:
a- The naïve approach
b- A 3-period moving average
c- A weighted average using weights of 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2.
d- Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.4.
Period 1 2 3 4 5
Number of
60 65 55 58 64
complaints

2- The number of bushels of apples sold at a roadside fruit stand over 12 day period were as
follows:
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Number
25 31 29 33 34 37 35 32 38 40 37 32
sold
a. If a two moving average has been used to forecast sales, what were the daily
forecasts starting with the forecast for day 3.
b. If a four period moving average has been used, what were the forecasts for each
day starting with day 5.
c. Plot the original data and each set of forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast
has the greater tendency to smooth? Which forecast has the better ability to
respond quickly to changes?

3- If the exponential smoothing with α = 0.4 has been used to forecast daily sales for apples
in problem 2, determine what the daily forecasts would have been. Then plot the original
data, the exponential forecasts, and a set of naïve forecasts on the same graph. Based on
the visual comparison, is the naïve more accurate or less accurate than the exponential
smoothing method, or are they about the same?

4- Apple’s Citrus fruit farm ships boxed fruit anywhere in the continental United States.
Using the following information forecast shipments for the first four mouths. The
monthly forecast equation being used is: y= 402+3t where: t0 January of last year and y
is the number of shipments. Determine the amounts of shipments for the first four
months of the next year: January t=24; February t=25 etc.
Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Seasonal
1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4
relative

5- Develop a linear trend line for the following data. Plot the line and the data on a graph,
and verify visually that a linear trend line is appropriate. Then use the equation to predict
the next two values of the series.
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Demand 44 52 50 54 55 55 60 56 62

6- The owner of a small hardware store has noted a sales pattern for window locks that
seems to parallel the number of break-ins reported each week in the newspaper. The data
 are:
sales 46 18 20 22 27 34 14 37 30
Break-ins 9 3 3 5 4 7 2 6 4

a. Plot the data to determine which type of equation is appropriate

7- National mixer, Inc., sells can openers. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as
follows:
Month Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug.
Sales (1000 units) 19 18 15 20 18 22 20
a- Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper
b- Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:
1. A linear regression
2. A five-month moving average
3. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming a
March forecast of 19000 units
4. The naive approach
5. Aweighted average using 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1 wieghts
c- Which method seems least appropariate? Why?

8- Mark Cotteleer owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for Mark’s
sailboats during each season in 2006 through 2009 was as follows:
Year
Season 2006 2007 2008 2009
Winter 1400 1200 1000 900
Spring 1500 1400 1600 1500
Summer 1000 2100 2000 1900
Fall 600 750 650 500
Mark has forecasted that the annual demand for his sailboats in 2011 will equal 5600
sailboats. Based on this data determine the forecasted value for the spring 2011.

9- The manager of a large manufacturer of industerial pumps must choose between two
alternative forecasting techniques. Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts
for a six-months period. Compute the MAD and MSE. Relying on MAD which
technique has the beter performance.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6
Demand 492 470 485 493 498 492
Forecast Tech-1 488 484 480 490 497 493
Tech-2 495 482 478 488 492 493

10- Collect real data for a small case study, conduct the forecasted approaches then propose
the most suitable one to be used to estimate the values of two future periods.