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Statistics and Probability Module 1 Lesson 1.2 Part 2

This document discusses expectation and variance of discrete random variables. It provides examples of calculating expectation as the sum of each value multiplied by its probability, and variance as the sum of the squared differences between each value and the expectation. The document also includes example problems and activities for readers to practice calculating expectation and variance from probability distributions.

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76 views4 pages

Statistics and Probability Module 1 Lesson 1.2 Part 2

This document discusses expectation and variance of discrete random variables. It provides examples of calculating expectation as the sum of each value multiplied by its probability, and variance as the sum of the squared differences between each value and the expectation. The document also includes example problems and activities for readers to practice calculating expectation and variance from probability distributions.

Uploaded by

A90 Valorant
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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MODULE 1 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 2ND SEMESTER

1.3 EXPECTATION AND VARIANCE OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE


Values of a discrete random variable with high probabilities are expected to occur more
frequently than values with low probabilities. When a number of trials are carried out, a frequency
distribution of values is produced, and this distribution has a mean or expected value.

EXPECTATION
The mean of a discrete random variable X is referred to as its expectation, and is written E(X ).
The mean of a discrete probability distribution can be solved by the following formula:

∑𝑥𝑓
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝐸(𝑋) =
∑𝑓

where 𝑥 is the possible values for random variable X, and f is the expected frequency.

EXAMPLE
Suppose we have a biased spinner with which we can score 0, 1, 2 or 3. The probabilities for
these scores, X, are as given in the following table and are also represented in the graph.

x 0 1 2 3
P(X = x) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2

However many times it is spun, we expect to score 0 with 10% of the spins; 1 with 30%; 2 with
40% and 3 with 20%.

The expected frequencies of the scores in 1600 trials are shown in the following table.

x 0 1 2 3
Expected
0.1 × 1600 = 160 0.3 × 1600 = 480 0.4 × 1600 = 640 0.2 × 1600 = 320
frequency (f)

From this table of expected frequencies, we can calculate the mean (expected) score in 1600 trials.

∑𝑥𝑓 (0 × 160) + (1 × 480) + (2 × 640) + (3 × 320)


𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝐸(𝑋) = = = 1.7
∑𝑓 1600

Note that we can obtain the same value for E(X ) if we use relative frequencies, p.

∑𝑥𝑝 (0 × 0.1) + (1 × 0.3) + (2 × 0.4) + (3 × 0.2)


𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝐸(𝑋) = = = 1.7
∑𝑝 1

VARIANCE
The variance of a discrete random variable give a measure of the
spread of values around the mean, E(X ). This measure, like E(X ), can be calculated
using probabilities in place of frequencies.
MODULE 1 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 2ND SEMESTER

The variance of a discrete random variable is


𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = ∑𝑥 𝑝 – {𝐸(𝑋 )}

From our previous example,


𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = ∑𝑥 𝑝 – {𝐸(𝑋 )}

𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = [(0 × 0.1) + (1 × 0.3) + (2 × 0.4) + (3 × 0.2)] – (1.7)

𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = 0.81

EXAMPLE:
The following table shows the probability distribution for 𝑋. Find its expectation, and variance.

x 0 5 15 20
P(X = x) 1/12 3/12 5/12 3/12

Solution:
∑𝑥𝑓 1 3 5 3
𝐸(𝑋) = = 0× + 5× + 15 × + 20 ×
∑𝑓 12 12 12 12

15 75 60
𝐸(𝑋) = 0 + + +
12 12 12

150
𝐸(𝑋) = = 12.5
12

𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = ∑𝑥 𝑝 – {𝐸(𝑋 )}

1 3 5 3
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = 0 × + 5 × + 15 × + 20 × – {12.5}
12 12 12 12

2400
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = − 156.25
12

𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ) = 43.75
MODULE 1 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 2ND SEMESTER

Activity 1.7
Answer the following.
1. The probability distribution for the random variable 𝑋 is given in the following table.

x 0 1 2 3
P(X = x) 0.10 0.12 0.36 0.42

Calculate E(𝑋) and Var(𝑋).

2. The probability distribution for the random variable Y is given in the following table.

y 0 1 2 3 4
P(Y = y) 0.03 2p 0.32 p 0.05

a. Find the value of p.


b. Calculate the expectation and variance of the probability distribution.
MODULE 1 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 2ND SEMESTER

3. The following table shows the probability distribution for the random variable V.

v 1 3 9 m
P(V = v) 0.4 0.28 0.14 0.18

Given that E(V) = 5.38, find the value of m and calculate Var(V).

4. Two ordinary fair dice are rolled. The discrete random variable X is the lowest common multiple
of the two numbers rolled.
a. Draw up the probability distribution table for X.
b. Find E(X).
c. Calculate Var(X).

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