ASSIGNMENT COVER PAGE

Please complete Section A and Section B below and attach the cover page to the front of your assignment

SECTION A: STUDENT AND ASSIGNMENT DETAILS (Please complete the details below in full)

Student number
139740

Title
Mr

Surname
Nthoba
Paballo Abram
First name/s

PGDPM
Programme

Intake
JULY 2019

Module
Project Risk Management

Facilitator

Examination venue
Kimberley
First submission TICK X
Submission type
Re- submission TICK

Submission date
05/08/2019

09 Duvenhage street

Postal address
New Park

Kimberley

Work
079 965 6313

Home
Contact 083 5372973
details
Cell
079 9656313

Email
[email protected]

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SECTION B: DECLARATION (Please ensure you sign the declaration prior to submission of the assignment)

I hereby declare that this assignment submitted is an original piece of work produced by myself.

Signature of student: ____Nthoba P A__

Date: _____05/08/2019_

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Table of Content

1. Risk management processes

2. Two expert judgement technique

3. The golden rules

4. techniques for risk identification

5. risk response matrix

6. reference

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Question 1.1

As a competent project manager provide advice on how the risks for the project
could have been managed by making mention of the risk management process.

Feedback:

The aim of the Risk Management Process (RMP) is to foresee events that could go
wrong in the PLC and make a decision on what action should be undertaken to
avoid, correct or eliminate the problem (Young, 2013).

Risk is part of the planning makeup. When we start the planning process for any
project, one of the first things we must think about is: what can go wrong in this
project that we need to take precautions measures for it.

Project risk management is the process of identifying, analysing and then responding
to any risk that arises over the life cycle of a project to help the project remain on
track and meet its goal. Risk management isn’t reactive only; it should be part of the
planning process to figure out risk that might happen in the project and how to
control that risk if it in fact occurs.

A risk is anything that could potentially impact your project’s timeline, performance or
budget. Risks are potentialities, and in a project management context, if they
become realities, they then become classified as “issues” that must be addressed.
So risk management, then, is the process of identifying, categorizing, prioritizing and
planning for risks before they become issues.

the risk management involves the identification, assessment, control, and response
to project risks in order to minimize the likelihood of occurrence and or potential
impact of adverse event on the accomplishment of the project objectives (PMI,
20017; 395).

The risk management process would include:

• Identification - the team will uncover, recognize and describe risks that might
affect the project or its objectives. This is done by anticipating what could go
wrong and then deciding what should be done to correct, prevent or eliminate
the risk from occurring (Maylor, 2010). In identifying risks in projects, various

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 techniques such as interviews, questionnaires, brainstorming and bench
marking can be used.
• Assessment - During this step, the team will estimate the probability and
fallout of each risk to decide where to focus first. Factors such as potential
financial loss to the organization, time lost, and severity of impact all play a
part in accurately analyzing each risk. In putting each risk under the
microscope, we will also uncover any common issues across a project and
further refine the risk management process for future projects. Risk
assessment is the process of analyzing carried out after the risks have been
identified in the identification stage. According to Kerzner, risk assessment is
the process that involves analysis of the collected data (Kerzner, 2003). The
analysis of data involves two methods known as qualitative and quantitative.
Qualitative methods are most applicable to non-numerical data which is
usually placed on a descriptive scale with the ranges of high to low level. This
involves evaluating key characteristics of individual risks so that they can be
prioritized for further action (Hilson, 2009).

• Response - Risk response is about considering options for treating risks that
were not considered acceptable or tolerable. Risk treatment involves
identifying options for treating or controlling risk, in order to either reduce or
eliminate negative consequences, or to reduce the likelihood of an adverse
occurrence. Risk treatment should also aim to enhance positive outcomes.
• Control risk - Clear communication among the team and stakeholders is and
will be essential when it comes to ongoing monitoring of potential threats.

Risk management is a process that allows individual risk events and overall risk to
be understood and managed proactively, optimising success by minimising threats
and maximising opportunities APM (2006).

The high-level process, as illustrated in figure below starts with an initiation step that
defines the scope and objectives of risk management. A key output from the initiation
step is the risk management plan, which details how risk will be managed throughout
the life cycle (APM 2006).

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Project management is usually focused on cost and schedule, and delivering
projects “on time, on budget” sometimes feels like the only criteria.

But as a project manager, there’s nothing that makes you sleep at night better than
knowing you’ve got the risks to your project under control and that the required
stakeholders know about them

The PMBOK’s Project Risk Management knowledge area contains 7 processes:

1. Plan Risk Management

2. Identify Risks

3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

5. Plan Risk Responses

6. Implement Risk Responses

7. Monitor Risks

Question 1.2

Discuss comprehensively, considering both advantages, disadvantages and biases,

the two expert judgement techniques that are applicable not only for the risk
identification, but also for forecasting and decision making as applicable to the case.

Expect judgement techniques are applicable not only for risk identification, but also
for the forecasting and decision making. Two expect judgment techniques are Delhi
method and the nominal group technique.

Experts are those individuals or group who possess specialized knowledge or

training in particular area. In project management, experts are either part of the
project (i.e. project manager) or involved (i.e. stakeholders) in project processes.
Project teams with project manager and team members with relevant experience in
the project related subject can perform the project with more success probability than
those are not. Other than project team, generally available experts are project
consultants, user groups, subject matter experts or senior management people.

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Judgment provided by those people with expertise in appropriate project area is
utilized at various stages of project phase in order to do effective project
management. Their expertise is used to analyze historical information, define &
ensure appropriate standards, get various suggestions/advice, evaluate different
options, determine best suited options ( Babou; October 26, 2009 article ).

Delphi technique. An information-gathering technique used as a way to reach a

consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this
technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the
important project points related to the subject. The responses are summarized and
re-circulated to the experts for further comment. Consensus may be reached in a few
rounds of this process.

The Delphi technique helps reduce bias in the data and keeps any one person from
having undue influence on the outcome ( Cynthia Snyder Stackpole, 2nd edition
PMP September 2013, ) .

For identifying risks, follow these steps:

1. Describe the project or the aspect of the project you want to identify risks for.

2. Select a panel of experts, who should remain anonymous throughout the

process.

3. Send out background information on the project along with a questionnaire to

each expert participant.

4. The facilitator compiles information returned from the experts, filtering out
irrelevant content and content that can lead to loss of anonymity.

5. The facilitator sends out the compiled and cleaned responses to the
questionnaire for the experts to comment on. They can comment on individual
observations or on the observations of the group as a whole. As a result of the
comment process, people may want to modify their input.

6. Several iterations of the analysis, response, and discussion take place until
consensus is reached or until there is no more movement on the outcome.

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Reference to the facts of our case, I have considered the below mentioned
advantaged and disadvantages that are applicable to the case. the team of expert in
this case includes engineering firm URS, safety personnel, staff from center for
disease control, the U.S Army chemical material Agency and other URS Chemical
demilitarization sites across the country.

Advantage

A. The Delphi technique allows experts to interact without much of the costs and
psychological distortions of face-to-face meetings. It uses postal
questionnaires and controlled feedback. It may sometimes help in obtaining a
crude idea of other experts' expectations of, say, the impact of a project or
other development.
B. The main advantage of the Delphi Method comes in achieving consensus in
areas of uncertainty or in situations lacking in causation (Powell, 2003). This
is particularly true in the case of studies that focus on topics where multiple
stakeholder groups are potentially involved. The Gjoligaj (2015) and Rivera
(2013) dissertations provide typical examples, as does the Joyner and Smith
(2015) study.

C. Freedom of expression
Freedom of expression is a direct result of the anonymity required in all Delphi
panels. It gives panel members considerable latitude in presenting their
opinions and potentially offers different perspectives to others without fear of
criticism (de Villiers, de Villiers, & Kent, 2005).

D. Knowledge sharing
One area not often mentioned in regard to Delphi designs centers on the
ability of different disciplines to share knowledge and stimulate new ideas that
apply to the purpose of the panel (Pill,1971) and which can broaden the
knowledge base of other panel members.

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Disadvantages

Researcher bias

Given the extraordinary authority and influence of the researcher in the process, bias
may creep into the process, even unintentionally (Linstone & Turoff, 2002). The
temptation for a researcher to select panel members with known positions on the
problem is another way a researcher can exert bias.

The nominal group Technique method

Although the Delphin method is more relevant and applicable to this fact of our
project, I also considered some few advantages and disadvantages that are relevant
to the case.

But firstly, lets look at the content of the method in details. Nominal group technique
(NGT) is defined as a structured method for group brainstorming that encourages
contributions from everyone. Team members begin by writing down their ideas, then
selecting which idea they feel is best. Once team members are ready, everyone
presents their favorite idea, and the suggestions are then discussed and prioritized
by the entire group. In our case the team establishment is from one firm of engineers
URS, which has an immense number of expert for this kind of project within.

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Advantages of NTG Applicable to our case:

One of the main advantages of nominal group technique is that it gives all the group
members an equal opportunity to speak out their minds. Also, some group members
are quite and shy, this method helps them to write down their ideas and discuss with
the group members. The major disadvantage is that this technique consumes a lot of
time to arrive to a final conclusion and also only one problem can be addressed at a
time.

Disadvantage of NTG

A major disadvantage of NGT is that the method lacks flexibility by being able to deal
with only one problem at a time. Also, there must be a certain amount of conformity
on the part of the members involved in NGT. Everyone must feel comfortable with
the amount of structure involved. Another disadvantage is the amount of time
needed to prepare for the activity. There is no spontaneity involved with this method.
Facilities must be arranged and carefully planned. Opinions may not converge in the
voting process, cross-fertilization of ideas may be constrained, and the process may
appear to be too mechanical.

One of the key issues about 'nominal' group technique is that it does not depend on
normal group processes. It is a method to work with a collection of people and
involve them in decision making but does not depend on normal group processes.
This is according to the originators an advantage in decision making using this tool.

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Section B

Question 2.1

Discuss the 10 golden rules of project risk management using a project of your
choice

Rule 1: Make Risk management part of your project

During our planning and design stages or our roads and stormwater project, is
to ensure that the risk management is part of the project because no project
runs to its successful end without encountering some faulty approaches and
problems on its way. Managing a project without proper risk management
may leads to the late identification of threats which can bring your projects
faster to its end, but towards the opposite side. Make risk management a part
of your project will help you minimize the probability of encountering problems
and recover from any accidentally shut-down quickly. When dealing with
projects of such nature especially in volatile communities, lots of challenges
arise as the results of strikes and lack of materials within the community
boundaries.

Rule 2: identify risks early I your project

After establishing the risk management context, the next stage involves
identifying all the potential risks that could occur during the project
implementation stages. This is done by anticipating what could go wrong and

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 then deciding what should be done to correct, prevent or eliminate the risk
from occurring (Maylor, 2010). Risk identification, is undertaken using the
information gained from the process of establishing the context. Key
questions that may assist in risk identification are:

• When, where, why and how the risks are likely to occur?

• What are the risks associated with achieving each of our

priorities?

• What are the risks of not achieving these priorities?

• Who might be involved; suppliers, contractors or stakeholders?

(Berg, 2010)

In identifying risks in projects, various techniques such as interviews,

questionnaires, brainstorming and bench marking can be used.

Rule 3: communicate about the risk

Project requires teamwork in organizations to produce the best outcome for

the company because teamwork help the project manager(s) to foresee risks
he cannot do while working alone. However, not all project managers are
good at-risk management. Our normal approach is to include risk in the team
meeting agenda. This help to emphasize the importance of project risk
management and help team members to easily discuss/ participate and report
about risks based on their findings.

Based on the urgent matter to be discussed before the sitting of the meeting,
the project manager will circulate the urgent matter through memos, email and
formal letters to all the team members including the stakeholders.

Rule 4: consider both threats and opportunities

The proper approaches is to focus on positive risks, as well as negative risks.

These are the uncertain events that can represent opportunities for a project
rather than obstructions.

As a result, to workload during the construction phase project, it is a common

occurrence for positive risks to be overlooked at the expense of focusing

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 purely on the negative risks. The project manager will also will be assigned to
consider project opportunities though, especially as some may result in a
sizeable reward but require only a limited investment in time and resources (
Advertorial September 18, 2014 11:44 BST).

Rule 5: Clarify ownership issues

We then assign a risk owner for each risk by name. during the meetings and
through technological discussion we then assign relevant personnel to related
matters. This approach makes it easier for project manager to manage risks
by assigning certain risks to certain people. It also helps to manage progress
on mitigating the problem within time frames. This means for each risk found
you will assign it to one person in your team to optimize this risk to the project.

Rule 6: Prioritize Risks

Because some risks inevitably have a bigger impact than others, so it is

important to allocate most of the time attending to the risks that can cause the
biggest losses and gains. Potential project breakers that have the ability to
stop it in its tracks will then be treated as your number one priority, with other
less important risks assembled in an order of priority, criteria that measures
the effects of a risk and the chances of it occurring. We use colour chats to
identify and prioritize the severity of the risk and its impact to the project.

For example, most construction projects are faces with three risk during
construction especially if the unforeseen were not identified or detected during
the design stages. which is time, cost and resource.

Rule 7: Analyse Risks

Analysis of a project as a whole account for the factors that ultimately

determine whether the project is delivered on time and within budget. At
whichever level the project manager analyse the risk, the information
gathered helps to provide valuable insight into project success and direction
and help to identify actionable responses to optimize them.

Rule 8: Plan and implement risk responses

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 Dealing with risks takes the form of either risk avoidance, risk minimisation or
risk acceptance (Advertorial September 18, 2014 11:44 BST). Avoiding risk
means you adopt measures that result in your project no longer facing a
specific risk, such as changing supplier, or in extreme cases, terminating a
project if the risk is deemed to be fatal to its success. Risk minimisation is the
most widely used response and revolves around trying to prevent a risk
occurring by influencing the identified causes or decreasing the negative
effects if it were to occur. Risk acceptance is an option that remains beneficial
in situations where a risk's effects on a project are minimal or it is difficult and
uneconomical to try and influence it.Responses for risk opportunities differ
from responses to risk threats in that they actively seek risks, either
maximising or ignoring them.

Rule 9: Register Project Risks

During the project plan, the team will creat and maintain a risk log that
enables the project leader to keep a complete record of all risks and track the
progress of each one.

An effective risk log will then contain risk descriptions, stipulates ownership
and allows the team to perform high level analyses regarding causes and
effects. The importance of a risk audit trail cannot be overestimated because
even if a risk proves terminal for a project, it will be provide irrefutable
evidence that risks were accounted for and that effective responses were
executed.

Rule 10: Track risks and associated tasks

Then all the are recorded in risk register which was developed before the
project starts, this help the project team and stakeholders to track risks and
their associated tasks. Tracking tasks is a day-to-day job for project manager.
Integrating risk tasks into that daily routine is a profitable to any project. Risk
tasks may be carried out to identify or analyze risks or to generate, select and
implement responses.

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 Tracking risks differs from tracking tasks. It focuses on the current situation of
risks. Which risks are more likely to happen? Has the relative importance of
risks changed?

Question 2.2

Choose 3 techniques for risk identification and discuss them using a project of your
choice.

In identifying risks in projects, various techniques such as interviews, questionnaires,

brainstorming and bench marking can be used. In our project the following
techniques were relevant and recommended to be implemented.

Brainstorming:

brainstorming is one way of identifying risks through the organic process which is
also known as a creative process. This process is known as creative, free-flowing
and thinking approach of identifying risks because it is conducted in an atmosphere
that supports creativity and innovation through encouraging the sharing of ideas and
participation (Turner, 2009). It is a technique that is considered very effective as it
involves a session of sharing and identifying the risks that could occur in a project.
This session is conducted by the project team together with all the stakeholders
(Harrison & Lock, 2004). When identifying risks using the brainstorming method, the
key question that is seeking an answer is: ‘What could go wrong at any time during
the project?’ This enables the process to be very efficient and effective (Young,
2013).

Brainstorming according to PMI is a common approach used in identifying the source

of risks in the project. The project manager should involve key project team
members in identifying potential sources of risk in the project. Their main objective is
to identify the risk event and their consequences that could prevent the project from
meeting its defined goals of scope, schedule, cost , resource consumption or quality.
(PMI:2017).

In simple terms, brainstorming is an information gathering technique with a three-

step process which; first, involves a creative phase. In this first phase, the project

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manager solicits ideas from all those involved with the project. This could be done
through conducting a meeting where the attendants must make sure that all the risks
are recorded (Blessing B: 2015 dissertation).

Brainstorming is therefore a technique that answers the question of ‘What could go

wrong in the process of undertaking roads and stormwater projects?’ As such, the
key stakeholders must always be engaged in this process as it has proved to be
beneficial in countering risks as the responsibility to mitigate the risk is shared by all
the members of the project team.

Flowchart Method :

The Flowchart Method is used to graphically and sequentially depict the activities of
an operation or process to identify experiences, perils and hazards. There are a
variety of methods that can be used including: product analysis, dependency
analysis, site analysis, decision analysis and critical path analysis. These methods
can illustrate interdependency within your organization; they can easily pinpoint
bottlenecks and can determine a critical path. They do not indicate frequency or
severity, but only show minor processes with major loss potential, they have a limited
applicability to liability exposures and in most situations, they are too process-
oriented.

SWOT Analysis:

SWOT (Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats) analysis is a technique often

used in the formulation of strategy. The strengths and weaknesses are internal to the
company and include the company’s culture, structure, and financial and human
resources. The major strengths of the company combine to form the core
competencies that provide the basis for the company to achieve a competitive
advantage. The opportunities and threats consist of variables outside the company
and typically are not under the control of senior management in the short run, such
as the broad spectrum of political, societal, environmental, and industry risks. For
SWOT analysis to be effective in risk identification, the appropriate time and effort
must be spent on thinking seriously about the organization’s weaknesses and
threats. The tendency is to devote more time to strengths and opportunities and give

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the discussion of weaknesses and threats short shrift. Taking the latter discussion
further and developing a risk map based on consensus will ensure that this side of
the discussion gets a robust analysis. In a possible acquisition or merger
consideration, a company familiar to the authors uses a SWOT analysis that includes
explicit identification of risks. The written business case presented to the board for
the proposed acquisition includes a discussion of the top risks together with a risk
map.

SWOT technique also play important role in this type of projects because, every
project that is within the community will have politicians, communities, departments
and local government (municipality).

Question 2.3

Identify 5 risks of a project of your choice. Using the risk response matrix by Gido
and Clements compile the matrix with the identified 5 risks.

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18
 LIKELIHO
OD OF
OCCURRE ACTION ON
RISK IMPACT RESPONSIBILITY RESPOCE PLAN
NCE TRIGGER

(L,M,H)

Budget Constraints- Project may be divided

Project not fully funded Project delay H allocation in doubt or Department of Roads and Transport into 2or 3 phases with
subject to change options in the D/B
contract
Added remaining PE
Adequate costs are Engineering Department and Project based on %inflation for
Preliminary Engineering Incorrect amount budgeted H function reviews,
not included Manager
determination of
construction schedule
Certain changes Include a 2%
Contract Modifications / during construction construction cost
Contract costs increase H Project manager and Municipality
Time Extensions not covered by bill/Q growth factor in
contract estimate
To add 5% escalation
during the phasing of
Cost of living
Inflation Cost escalation H Project Manager project scope to cover
increases per year
the project
contingencies

Unexpected
geotechnical issues. Detailed geotechnical
Differing Site Conditions Increased project costs M Project manager/ Geotechnical team investigations to be
Natural or manmade
obstructions. performed.

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