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1. The probability of drawing a red chip first and a blue chip second from a bowl containing 7 blue chips and 3 red chips without replacement is 3/35. 2. Given that a person selected at random has an auto or homeowner policy from an insurance company, the conditional probability that they will renew at least one of those policies is 0.72. 3. The probabilities are: (a) 1041/1456 for favoring a gun law, (b) 392/633 for favoring a gun law given being male, and (c) 649/823 for favoring a gun law given being female. These answers indicate the conditional probabilities of favoring a gun law based on

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Divyanshu Bose
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131 views2 pages

Questions 1

1. The probability of drawing a red chip first and a blue chip second from a bowl containing 7 blue chips and 3 red chips without replacement is 3/35. 2. Given that a person selected at random has an auto or homeowner policy from an insurance company, the conditional probability that they will renew at least one of those policies is 0.72. 3. The probabilities are: (a) 1041/1456 for favoring a gun law, (b) 392/633 for favoring a gun law given being male, and (c) 649/823 for favoring a gun law given being female. These answers indicate the conditional probabilities of favoring a gun law based on

Uploaded by

Divyanshu Bose
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1. A bowl contains 7 blue chips and 3 red chips.

Two chips are to be drawn successively at


random and without replacement. Compute the probability that the first draw results in a
red chip and the second draw results in a blue chip.
2. An insurance company sells several types of insurance policies, including auto policies and
homeowner policies. Let A1 be those people with an auto policy only, A2 those people
with a homeowner policy only, and A3 those people with both an auto and homeowner
policy (but no other policies). For a person randomly selected from the company’s policy
holders, suppose that P(A1) = 0.3, P(A2) = 0.2, and P(A3) = 0.2. Further, let B be the event
that the person will renew at least one of these policies. Say from past experience that we
assign the conditional probabilities P(B|A1) = 0.6, P(B|A2) = 0.7, and P(B|A3) = 0.8. Given
that the person selected at random has an auto or homeowner policy, what is the conditional
probability that the person will renew at least one of those policies?
3. The following table classifies 1456 people by their gender and by whether or not they favor
a gun law.
Male (S1) Female (S2) Totals
Favor (A1) 392 649 1041
Oppose (A2) 241 174 415
Total 633 823 1456

Compute the following probabilities if one of these 1456 persons is selected randomly:
(a) P(A1), (b) P(A1|S1), (c) P(A1|S2). (d) Interpret your answers to parts (b) and (c).
4. Two cards are drawn successively and without replacement from an ordinary deck of
playing cards. Compute the probability of drawing
(i) Two hearts. (ii) A heart on the first draw and a club on the second draw. (iii) A heart
on the first draw and an ace on the second draw.
5. A researcher finds that, of 982 men who died in 2019, 221 died from some heart disease.
Also, of the 982 men, 334 had at least one parent who had some heart disease. Of the latter
334 men, 111 died from some heart disease. A man is selected from the group of 982.
Given that neither of his parents had some heart disease, find the conditional probability
that this man died of some heart disease.
6. A rocket has a built-in redundant system. In this system, if component K1 fails, it is
bypassed and component K2 is used. If component K2 fails, it is bypassed and component
K3 is used. Suppose that the probability of failure of any one component is 0.15, and assume
that the failures of these components are mutually independent events. Let Ai denote the
event that component Ki fails for i = 1, 2, 3. The system fails if K1 fails and K2 fails and K3
fails, find the probability that the system does not fail.
7. In 2019 there were three candidates for the position principal- Mr. X, Mr. Y and Mr. Z,
whose chances of getting the appointment are in the proportion 4:2:3 respectively. The
probability that Mr. X if selected would introduce co-education in the college is 0·3. The
probabilities of Mr. Y and Mr. Z doing the same are respectively 0.5 and 0·8. What is the
probability that there was co-education in the college in 2019?
Answer: 23/45
8. The contents of urns I, II and III are as follows:
Urn-I: 1 white, 2 black and 3 red balls,
Urn-II: 2 white, 1 black and 1 red balls, and
Urn-III: 4 white, 5 black and 3 red balls.
One urn is chosen at random and two balls drawn. They happen to be white and red. What
is the probability that they come from urns I, II or III.
9. In answering a question on a multiple choice test a student either knows the answer or he
guesses. Let p be the probability that he knows the answer and 1-p the probability that he
guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability
1/5, where 5 is the number of multiple-choice alternatives. What is the conditional
probability that a student knew the answer to a question given that he answered it correctly?
10. A life insurance company issues standard, preferred, and ultra-preferred policies. Of the
company’s policyholders of a certain age, 60% have standard policies and a probability of
0.01 of dying in the next year, 30% have preferred policies and a probability of 0.008 of
dying in the next year, and 10% have ultra-preferred policies and a probability of 0.007 of
dying in the next year. A policyholder of that age dies in the next year. What are the
conditional probabilities of the deceased having had a standard, a preferred, and an ultra-
preferred policy?

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