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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Chapter 1
Basic Probability

1.1 Counting and Combinatorics

One of the problems that the statistician must consider and attempt to evaluate is the
element of chance associated with the occurrence of certain events when an experiment is
performed. In many cases, we shall be able to solve a probability problem by counting the
number of points in the sample space without actually listing each element.

The Fundamental Principle of Counting (Multiplication rule of counting)

If one thing can be accomplished n1 different ways and after this a second thing can
be accomplished n2 different ways, … , and finally a k th thing can be accomplished in nk
different ways, then all k things can be accomplished in the specified order in n1n2 ...nk
different ways.
Note The fundamental principle of counting, often referred to as the multiplication rule.

Example 1.1 How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of dice is
thrown once?

Example 1.2 If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a treasurer, how many different
ways can these two to be elected?

Example 1.3 Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips from
two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five
local stores. How many different ways can Sam order the parts?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.4 How many even four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6,
and 9 if each digit can be used only once?

Example 1.5 The following three factors were considered in the study of the effectiveness of
a certain cancer treatment:
(i) Medicine (A1, A2, A3, A4, A5)
(ii) Dosage Level (Low, Medium, High)
(iii) Dosage Frequency (1,2,3,4 times/day)
Find the number of ways that a cancer patient can be given the medicine?

Example 1.6 How many license-plates with 3 letters followed by 3 digits exist?

Example 1.7 Registrants at a large convention are offered 6 sightseeing tours on each of 3
days. In how many ways can a person arrange to go on a sightseeing tour planned by this
convention?

Example 1.8 A certain brand of shoes comes in 5 different styles, with each style available in
4 distinct colors. If the store wishes to display pairs of these shoes showing all of its various
styles and colors, how many different pairs will the store have on display?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Permutations
Suppose that we are given n distinct objects and wish to arrange r of these objects
in a line. Since there are n ways of choosing the first object, and after this is done, n  1 ways
of choosing the second object, … , and finally n  r  1 ways of choosing the r th object, it
follows by the fundamental principle of counting that the number of different arrangements,
or permutations as they are often called, is given by

n Pr  n(n  1)...(n  r  1)

where it is noted that the product has r factors. We call n Pr the number of permutations of
n objects taken r at a time.
We can write this formula in terms of factorials as
n!
Pr 
(n  r )!
n

In the particular case when r  n , this becomes n Pn  n(n  1)...1  n !

The number of permutations of n objects arranged in a circle is (n  1)!

Suppose that a set consists of n objects of which n1 are of one type ( i. e. ,

indistinguishable from each other), n2 are of a second type, … , nk are of a k th type. Here,
of course, n  n1  n2  ...  nk . Then the number of different permutations of the objects is
n!
n Pn1n2 ...nk 
n1 !n2 !...nk !

Example 1.9 In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given to a
class of 25 graduate students in a statistics department. If each student can receive at most
one award, how many possible selections are there?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.10 A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club consisting of
50 people. How many different choices of officers are possible if
(a) there are no restrictions;
(b) A will serve only if he is president;
(c) B and C will serve together or not at all;
(d) D and E will not serve together?

Example 1.11
(a) In how many ways can 6 people be lined up to get on a bus?
(b) If 3 specific persons, among 6, insist on following each other, how many ways are
possible?
(c) If 2 specific persons, among 6, refuse to follow each other, how many ways are possible?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.12
(a) How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word COLUMNS?
(b) How many of these permutations start with the letter M?

Example 1.13 In how many ways can 4 boys and 5 girls sit in a row if the boys and girls must
alternate?

Example 1. 14 In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs to have
10 players standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4
juniors, and 3 seniors. How many different ways can they be arranged in a row if only their
class level will be distinguished?

Example 1.15 How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word
INFINITY?

Example 1.16 In how many ways can 3 oaks, 4 pines, and 2 maples be arranged along a
property line if one does not distinguish among trees of the same kind?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Combinations
In a permutation we are interested in the order of arrangements of the objects. For
example, abc is a different permutation from bca . In many problems, however, we are only
interested in selecting or choosing objects without regard to order. Such selections are called
combinations. For example, abc and bca are the same combination.
The total number of combinations of r objects selected from n ( also called the
n
combinations of n things taken r at a time) is denoted by n Cr or   . We have
r
n n!
Cr    
 r  r !(n  r )!
n

It can also be written

Pr
n Cr  n

r!
It is easy to show that
n  n 
  
r  nr

Binomial Theorem Let x and y be variables, and let n be a non-negative integer. Then
n
n
( x  y)n     x nk y k
k 0  k 

n
where   will be called the binomial coefficient.
k 

Example 1. 17 A medical research group plans to select 2 volunteers out of 8 for a drug
experiment. In how many ways can they choose the 2 volunteers?

Example 1.18 How many ways are there to select 3 candidates from 8 equally qualified recent
graduates for openings in an accounting firm?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1. 19 From 7 consonants and 5 vowels, how many words can be formed consisting
of 4 different consonants and 3 different vowels? The words need not have meaning.

Example 1.20 A young boy asks his mother to get 5 Game-BoyTM cartridges from his collection
of 10 arcade and 5 sports games. How many ways are there that his mother can get 3 arcade
and 2 sports games?

Example 1. 21 A jury consisting of 2 women and 3 men is to be selected from a group of 5

women and 7 men. In how many different ways can this be done? Suppose that either Steve
or Harry must be selected but not both, then in how many ways this jury can be formed?

Example 1.22 The Russellville School District has six members. In how many ways
(a) can all six members line up for a picture?
(b) can they choose a president and a secretary?
(c) can they choose three members to attend a state conference with no regard to order?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.23 Determine whether each problem requires a combination or a permutation:

( a) There are 10 toppings available for your ice cream and you are allowed to choose only
three. How many possible 3-topping combinations can you have?
( b) Fifteen students participated in a spelling bee competition. The first place winner will
receive $1,000, the second place $500, and the third place $250. In how many ways can the
3 winners be drawn?

Example 1.24 Find the 5th term in the expansion of (2a  3b) 7 .

1.2 Probability
The world around us is full of phenomena we perceive as random or unpredictable.
We aim to model these phenomena as outcomes of some experiment, where you should
think of experiment in a very general sense. The outcomes are elements of a sample space
S , and subsets of S are called events. The events will be assigned a probability, a number
between 0 and 1 that expresses how likely the event is to occur.
Random Experiments
A random experiment or simply an experiment is an experiment whose outcomes
cannot be predicted with certainty. Examples of an experiment include rolling a die, flipping
a coin, and choosing a card from a deck of playing cards.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Sample spaces
A set S that consists of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a
sample space, and each outcome is called a sample point. Often there will be more than one
sample space that can describe outcomes of an experiment, but there is usually only one
that will provide the most information.
Example 1.25 An experiment consists of flipping a coin, the sample space is S  H , T  .
Example 1.26 Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested in the number
that shows on the top face, the sample space is S  1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 .
If we are interested only in whether the number is even or odd, the sample space is
simply
S

Example 1.27 Consider the random experiment of tossing a coin three times. Find the sample
space of this experiment.

Example 1.28 An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a
head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once. Find the sample space
of this experiment.

Example 1.29 Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process.
Each item is inspected and classified defective, D, or non-defective, N. Find the sample space.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.30 Consider the situation of Example 1.29 in which items from a manufacturing
process are either D, defective, or N, non-defective. Suppose the experiment is to sample
items randomly until one defective item is observed. Find the sample space.

Example 1.31 Use the rule method to describe the sample space S consisting of all points in
the first quadrant inside a circle of radius 3 with center at the origin.

Example 1.32 Four students are selected at random from a class and classified as male or
female. List the elements of the sample space S1 , using the letter M for male and F for female.
Define a second sample space S2 where the elements represent the number of females
selected.

Events
An event is a subset E of the sample space S, i.e., it is a set of possible outcomes. If
the outcome of an experiment is an element of E , we say that the event E has occurred.
An event consisting of a single point of S is called a simple or elementary event.
Example 1.33 Form Example 1.25, find the outcomes of the event of obtaining head.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.34 Form Example 1.26, find the outcomes of the event of obtaining an odd number.

Example 1.35 Form Example 1.27, find the outcomes of the event of obtaining more than one
head.

Example 1. 36 Given the sample space S  t t  0 , where t is the life in years of a certain
electronic component. Find the event that the component fails before the end of the fifth
year.

Example 1. 37 An experiment involves tossing a pair of dice, one green and one red, and
recording the numbers that come up. If x equals the outcome on the green die and y the
outcome on the red die.
(a) Describe the sample space S by listing the elements ( x, y)
(b) List the elements corresponding to the event A that the sum is greater than 8.
(c) List the elements corresponding to the event B that a 2 occurs on either die.
(d) List the elements corresponding to the event C that a number greater than 4 comes up
on the green die.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.38 An engineering firm is hired to determine if certain waterways in Virginia are safe
for fishing. Samples are taken from three rivers.
( a) List the elements of a sample space S , using the letters F for safe to fish and N for not
safe to fish.
( b) List the elements of S corresponding to event E that at least two of the rivers are safe
for fishing.

Example 1. 39 A hand of 2 cards is dealt from a deck. Let E be the event that the hand
contains 2 aces. List the elements of E .

Probability Measure
We want to express how likely it is that an event occurs. To do this we will assign a
probability to each event. The assignment of probabilities to events is in general not an easy
task, and some of the coming chapters will be dedicated directly or indirectly to this problem.
Since each event has to be assigned a probability, we speak of a probability function.
There are two important procedures by means of which we can estimate the
probability of an event.
1. Classical Approach
If an event can occur in n( A) different ways out of a total of n(S ) possible ways, all
of which are equally likely, then the probability of the event is
n( A)
P( A) 
n( S )

The P is called a probability function P: P (S )  [0,1]

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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

2. Frequency Approach
If after n repetitions of an experiment, where n is very large, an event is observed to
occur in nA of these, then the probability of the event is f A  nA . This is also called the
n
empirical probability of the event.

Both the classical and frequency approaches have serious drawbacks, the first because
the words “equally likely” are vague and the second because the “large number” involved
is vague. Because of these difficulties, mathematicians have been led to an axiomatic approach
to probability.

The Axioms of Probability

Suppose we have a sample space S . If S is discrete, all subsets correspond to events
and conversely; if S is nondiscrete, only special subsets ( called measurable) correspond to
events. To each event A in the class F ( F  P ( S ) ) of events, we associate a real number
P( A) . The P is called a probability function ( P : F  [0,1] ) , and P( A) the probability of
the event, if the following axioms are satisfied.
Axiom 1 For every event A in class F, P( A)  0
Axiom 2 For the sure or certain event S in the class F, P(S )  1
Axiom 3 For any number of mutually exclusive events A1 , A2 ,... in the class F,
 
P( An )   P ( An )
n 1 n 1

In particular, for two mutually exclusive events A1 A2and ,

P( A1  A2 )  P( A1 )  P( A2 )

Example 1.40 A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head occurs?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.41 A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as
an odd number. If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the
die, find P( E ) .

Example 1.42 In Example 1.41, let A be the event that an even number turns up and let B
be the event that a number divisible by 3 occurs. Find P( A  B) and P( A  B) .

Example 1. 43 A hand of 5 cards is dealt from a deck. Let E be the event that the hand
contains 5 aces. List the elements of E and find P( E ) .

Example 1.44 What is the probability of drawing an ace from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing
cards?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.45 Let S = {1,2,3, …,10}. If a number is chosen at random, that is, with the same
chance of being drawn as all other numbers in the set, calculate each of the following
probabilities:
(a) The event A that an even number is drawn.
(b) The event B that a number less than 5 and greater than 9 is drawn.
(c) The event C that a number less than 11 but greater than 0 is drawn.
(d) The event D that a prime number is drawn.
(e) The event E that a number both odd and prime is drawn.

Example 1. 46 A box of clothes contains 15 shirts and 10 pants. Three items are drawn from
the box without replacement. What is the probability that all three are all shirts or all pants?
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Example 1. 47 A box contains 500 envelopes, of which 75 contain $100 in cash, 150 contain
$25, and 275 contain $10. An envelope may be purchased for $25. What is the sample space
for the different amounts of money? Assign probabilities to the sample points and then find
the probability that the first envelope purchased contains less than $100.

Example 1. 48 If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of
poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability that
(a) the dictionary is selected?
(b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?

Example 1. 49 A box contains 5 batteries of which 2 are defective. An inspector selects 2

batteries at random from the box. She/he tests the 2 items and observes whether the sampled
items are defective.
(a) Write out the sample space of all possible outcomes of this experiment. Be very specific
when identifying these.
( b) The box will not be accepted if both of the sampled items are defective. What is the
probability the inspector will reject the box?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1. 50 Suppose each of 100 professors in a large mathematics department picks at

random one of 200 courses. What is the probability that at least two professors pick the same
course?

Some Important Theorems on Probability

From the above axioms we can now prove various theorems on probability that are
important in further work.
Theorem 1 For every event A , 0  P( A)  1.
Theorem 2 For  , the empty set, P()  0 .
Theorem 3 If Ac is the complement of A , then P( Ac )  1  P( A) .
Theorem 4 If A  B , then P( B  A)  P( B)  P( A) .
Theorem 5 If A  B , then P( A)  P( B) .
n n
Theorem 6 P( Ai )   P ( Ai ) when A1 , A2 ,..., An are mutually exclusive events.
i 1 i 1

Theorem 7 For any events A and B , P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

Theorem 8 For any events A and B , P( A)  P( A  B)  P( A  Bc )
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1. 49 John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a

university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two companies he likes, he
assesses that his probability of getting an offer from company A is 0. 8, and his probability of
getting an offer from company B is 0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get offers
from both companies is 0. 5, what is the probability that he will get at least one offer from
these two companies?

Example 1. 50 If the probabilities are, respectively, 0. 09, 0. 15, 0. 21, and 0. 23 that a person
purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green, white, red, or blue, what is the
probability that a given buyer will purchase a new automobile that comes in one of those
colors?

Example 1.51 If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or

more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what
is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.52 Let A and B be two events for which one knows that P( A)  0.3 , P( B)  0.4
and P( A  B)  0.2 . What is P( Ac  B) ?

Example 1. 53 Let A and B be two events. Suppose that P( A)  0.4 , P( B)  0.5 and
P( A  B)  0.1 . Find the probability that A or B occurs, but not both.

Example 1.54 An entrance exam consists of two subjects: Math and English. The probability
that a student fails the math test is 0. 20. The probability of failing English is 0. 15, and the
probability of failing both subjects is 0.03. What is the probability that the student will fail at
least one of these subjects?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.55 An urn contains 2 red balls, 4 blue balls, and 5 white balls.
(a) What is the probability of the event R that a ball drawn at random is red?
( b) What is the probability of the event “ not R” that is, that a ball drawn at random is not
red?
(c) What is the probability of the event that a ball drawn at random is either red or blue?

Example 1.56 You are given P( A  B)  0.7 and P( A  Bc )  0.9 . Determine P( A) .

Example 1.57 A marketing survey indicates that 60% of the population owns an automobile,
30% owns a house, and 20% owns both an automobile and a house. Calculate the probability
that a person chosen at random owns an automobile or a house, but not both.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

1.3 Conditional probability and independence

Knowing that an event has occurred sometimes forces us to reassess the probability
of another event; the new probability is the conditional probability. If the conditional
probability equals what the probability was before, the events involved are called
independent. Often, conditional probabilities and independence are needed if we want to
compute probabilities, and in many other situations they simplify the work.

Conditional Probability
Definition 1 For any events A and B , The conditional probability of A given B is given by:
P( A  B)
P( B A)  ,
P( A)
provided P( A)  0 .

Example 1. 58 Let M denote the event “ student is male” and let H denote the event
“student is hispanic”. In a class of 100 students suppose 60 are hispanic, and suppose that 10
of the hispanic students are males. Find the probability that a randomly chosen hispanic
student is a male, that is, find P( M H ) .

Example 1.59 The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P( D)  0.83
; the probability that it arrives on time is P( A)  0.82 ; and the probability that it departs and
arrives on time is P( D  A)  0.78 . Find the probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time;
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.60 Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular
type of cloth are being produced. These strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature
of texture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification is very complicated. It is
known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips fail the length test, 5%
fail the texture test, and only 0. 8% fail both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the
process and a quick measurement identifies it as failing the length test, what is the probability
that it is texture defective?

The multiplication rule

For any events A and B , P( A  B)  P( A) P( B A)

Example 1. 61 The probability of a applicant to be admitted to a certain college is 0. 8. The

probability for a student in the college to live on campus is 0. 6. What is the probability that
an applicant will be admitted to the college and will be assigned a dormitory housing?

Example 1. 62 An urn contains 22 marbles: 10 red, 5 green, and 7 orange. You pick two at
random without replacement. What is the probability that the first is red and the second is
orange?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.63 Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective.
If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing
the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?

Example 1. 64 A pollster surveyed 100 people about watching the TV show “ The big bang
theory”. The results of the poll are shown in the table.

Yes No Total
Male 19 41 60
Female 12 28 40
Total 31 69 100

(a) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual is a male and watching the show?
(b) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual is a male?
(c) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual watches the show?
(d) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual watches the show, given that the
individual is a male?
(e) What is the probability that a randomly selected individual watching the show is a male?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Theorem 9 Consider n events A1 , A2 ,..., An . Then

P( A1  A2  ...  An )  P( A1 ) P( A2 A1 )...P ( An A1  A2  ...  An 1 )

Example 1.64 A box of television tubes contains 20 tubes, of which five are defective. If three
of the tubes are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without
replacement, what is the probability that all three tubes are defective?

Example 1.65 Suppose 5 cards are drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability that all cards are the same suit, i.e. a flush?

Theorem 10 For every event A , P( A)  0

1. 0  P( B A)  1
2. P(S A)  1
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P( B1  B2 A)  P( B1 A)  P( B1 A)
4. P( Bc A)  1  P( B A)
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Theorem 11 The theorem (The law) of total probability

Suppose that B1 , B2 ,..., Bn are mutually exclusive events whose union is the sample
space S , i.e., one of the events must occur. The probability of an arbitrary event A can be
expressed as:
n
P ( A)   P ( Bi ) P ( A Bi )
i 1

Theorem 12 Bayes’Theorem (Rule)

Suppose that B1, B2 ,..., Bn are mutually exclusive events whose union is the sample
space S . The conditional probability of Bk , k {1, 2,..., n} , given an arbitrary event A, can be
expressed as:
P( Bk ) P( A Bk )
P( Bk A)  n

 P( B ) P( A B )
i 1
i i

Example 1. 66 A small manufacturing company uses two machines A and B to make shirts.
Observation shows that machine A produces 10% of the total production of shirts while
machine B produces 90% of the total production of shirts. Assuming that 1% of all the shirts
produced by A are defective while 5% of all the shirts produced by B are defective, find the
probability that a shirt taken at random from a day’ s production was made by machine A,
given that it is defective.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1. 67 The completion of a highway construction may be delayed because of a

projected storm. The probabilities are 0. 60 that there will be a storm, 0. 85 that the
construction job will be completed on time if there is no storm, and 0.35 that the construction
will be completed on time if there is a storm. What is the probability that the construction
job will be completed on time?

Example 1. 68 Passengers in Little Rock Airport rent cars from three rental companies: 60%
from Avis, 30% from Enterprise, and 10% from National. Past statistics show that 9% of the
cars from Avis, 20% of the cars from Enterprise, and 6% of the cars from National need oil
change. If a rental car delivered to a passenger needs an oil change, what is the probability
that it came from Enterprise?

Example 1.69 A toy factory produces its toys with three machines A, B, and C. From the total
production, 50% are produced by machine A, 30% by machine B, and 20% by machine C.
Past statistics show that 4% of the toys produced by machine A are defective, 2% produced
by machine B are defective, and 4% of the toys produced by machine C are defective.
(a) What is the probability that a randomly selected toy is defective?
(b) If a randomly selected toy was found to be defective, what is the probability that this toy
was produced by machine A?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1.70 In a certain town in the United States, 40% of the population are liberals and
60% are conservatives. The city council has proposed selling alcohol illegal in the town. It is
known that 75% of conservatives and 30% of liberals support this measure.
(a) What is the probability that a randomly selected resident from the town will support the
measure?
(b) If a randomly selected person does support the measure, what is the probability the
person is a liberal?
(c) If a randomly selected person does not support the measure, what is the probability that
he or she is a liberal?

Example 1.71 A prerequisite for students to take a probability class is to pass calculus. A study
of correlation of grades for students taking calculus and probability was conducted. The study
shows that 25% of all calculus students get an A, and that students who had an A in calculus
are 50% more likely to get an A in probability as those who had a lower grade in calculus. If
a student who received an A in probability is chosen at random, what is the probability that
he/she also received an A in calculus?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1. 72 A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the design and
development of a particular product. For cost reasons, all three are used at varying times. In
fact, plans 1, 2, and 3 are used for 30% , 20% , and 50% of the products, respectively. The
defect rate is different for the three procedures as follows:
P( D P1 )  0.01 , P( D P2 )  0.03 , P( D P3 )  0.02 ,
where P( D Pj ) is the probability of a defective product, given plan j . If a random product
was observed and found to be defective, which plan was most likely used and thus
responsible?

Independence
Definition 2 Two events A and are independent if and only if
B
P( B A)  P( B) or P( A B )  P ( A) .

Theorem 13 A and B are independent events if and only if P( A  B)  P( A) P( B) .

Example 1.73 A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies.
The probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that
the ambulance is available when called is 0. 92. In the event of an injury resulting from a
burning building, find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will be
available, assuming they operate independently.
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1. 74 A coal exploration company is set to look for coal mines in two states Virginia
and New Mexico. Let A be the event that a coal mine is found in Virginia and B the event that
a coal mine is found in New Mexico. Suppose that A and B are independent events with
P( A)  0.4 and P( B)  0.7 . What is the probability that at least one coal mine is found in
one of the states?

Example 1.75 Draw two cards from a deck. Let A = “The first card is a spade,” and B = “The
second card is a spade.” Show that A and B are dependent.

Example 1.76 A fair die is thrown twice. A is the event “sum of the throws equals 4,” B is
“at least one of the throws is a 3.”
(a) Calculate P( A B)
(b) Are A and B independent events?
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D
2
Example 1.77 Let A and B be two independent events such that P( B A  B)  and
3
1
P( A B)  . What is P( B) ?
2

Theorem 14 If A and B are independent then so are A and Bc .

Example 1.78 Show that if A and B are independent so are Ac and B c .

Definition 3 Events A1 , A2 ,..., An are called mutually independent if and only if

P( Ai  Aj )  P( Ai ) P( Aj ) ; i  j, i, j  1, 2,..., n
P( Ai  Aj  Ak )  P( Ai ) P( Aj ) P( Ak ) ; i  j  k , i, j , k  1, 2,..., n

P( A1  A2  ...  An )  P( A1 ) P( A2 )...P( An )

In particular, three events A , B and C are independent if and only if

P  A  B   P  A P  B 
P  A  C   P  A P  C 
P  B  C   P  B  P C 
P  A  B  C   P  A P  B  P C 

We say that three events A1 , A2 ,..., A3 are independent if they are pairwise
independent.
P( Ai  Aj )  P( Ai ) P( Aj ) ; i  j, i, j  1, 2,..., n
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ST321/ST326 Asst. Prof. Monthira Duangsaphon, Ph.D

Example 1. 79 Consider the experiment of flipping two fair coins. Consider the three events:
A = the first coin shows heads; B = the second coin shows heads, and C = the two coins
show the same result. Show that these events are pairwise independent, but not independent.

Example 1.80 Let S = {1,2,3,4} with each outcome having equal probability 1 and define the
4
events A = {1,2}, B = {1,3}, and C = {1,4}. Show that the three events are pairwise
independent but not independent.

Example 1.81 In a clinic laboratory, the probability that a blood sample shows cancerous cells
is 0.05. Four blood samples are tested, and the samples are independent.
(a) What is the probability that none shows cancerous cells?
(b) What is the probability that exactly one sample shows cancerous cells?
(c) What is the probability that at least one sample shows cancerous cells?

Example 1. 82 Assume A and B are independent events with P( A)  0.2 and P( B)  0.3 .
Let C be the event that neither A nor B occurs, let D be the event that exactly one of A
or B occurs. Find P(C ) and P( D) .