Research question: Which common gambling game is the most profitable?

Introduction

A lottery is a form of gambling that involves the drawing of numbers at random for a prize.
The odds of winning the lottery are slim to none but the astounding prizes often given in
money attract millions of people to buy them. Statistics show that most people who play
lottery are poor. Lottery presents these people a slim hope of getting rich immediately.

The two types of lotteries chosen for this investigation are Viking Lotto and Eurojackpot.
These lotteries are very common in Europe and many people buy them on a regular basis.

Probabilities of winning different types of lotteries and money given back for
tickets

Viking Lotto

Rules

In Viking Lotto, a player chooses six different main number from 1-48 and one “Viking”
number from 1-8. If a player wants, he or she can let a random number generator choose
these numbers. The winning six numbers and one “Viking number” will be drawn on
television. One line (six main numbers + the “Viking” number) costs 0.80 euros.

Table 1

Correct main numbers + Viking number Prize money (euros)

6+1 5600000
6+0 250 000
5+1 10 000
5+0 1000
4+1 50
4+0 25
3+1 8
3+0 4
All other combinations 0

Main prize is different each week but when this IA was written the main prize was 5.6 million
euros.

Counting principles called combinations need to be used in order to determine the

probabilities of winning these prizes. Combinations represent a counting process where the
order has no importance. In Viking lotto, it is the same if we get 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 as our line or
7,6,5,4,3,2,1.

The probability of an event tells us how likely it is that the event will occur and is always a
value between 0 and 1. “There is a 50% chance of rain tomorrow” means that the probability
of rain is 0.50.

The total number of ways of selecting n objects, taking r at a time is given by:

n!
=n
()
( n−r ) ! r ! r
where n !=n x ( n−1 ) x ( n−2 ) x … x 2 x 1

The six main numbers are chosen from a set of size 48. The number of ways of picking six
number from a set of 48 is ( 486)=12271512, this is equal to the total number of possible six
number lines. Meanwhile, the one “Viking” number is chosen from a set of size 8. The
number of ways of picking one number from a set of 8 is (81 )=8, this is equal to the total
number possible “Viking” numbers.

The probability of choosing the one line of winning six main numbers
42 x 6
¿
( 0 ) (0 )
=
1 and the probability of choosing the one winning “Viking” number
12271512 12271512
7
¿
()0 1 . Because choosing the line of main numbers and the “Viking” number are two
=
8 8
independent events, they must be multiplied together to get the probability of winning the
main prize of 6 + 1. The probability of winning the main prize of 6 + 1 is therefore
1 1 1
x = .
12271512 8 98172096

The probabilities of other prizes can be calculated in a fairly similar way. For example, the
probability of winning 5 + 0 is calculated like this:

The number of ways of picking six numbers from a set of 48 is still ( 486)=12271512. But this
time five correct main numbers and one wrong main number are chosen. The number of
ways of choosing five correct main numbers and one wrong main number is given by:

( 421) x (61 ). ( 421) is derived when we want to find the number of ways of picking of one wrong
number from the set of wrong numbers. The set of wrong numbers is simply 48 subtracted
by six since there are six correct numbers and the rest of them are wrong. The one wrong
number can be chosen anywhere in the line of six numbers so we need to multiply ( 421) by
(61) which is the total number of possibilities of the wrong number’s place in the line.
The probability of not choosing the correct “Viking” number can be calculated by subtracting
the probability of choosing the correct “Viking number” from the total probability which is
one.

Number of different possible “Viking” numbers = (81 ) = 8

1
Probability of choosing the correct “Viking” number=
8

1 7
Probability of not choosing the correct “Viking” number = 1- =
8 8
 (7 )
This can also be expressed as 1
8

42 x 6
The probability of winning 5 + 0 is therefore
( 1 ) (1 ) 7
x =
7

(486) 8 389572
The standard formula for probability of k wrong main numbers and the correct “Viking”
number is given by:

42 x 6 7
P=
( k ) ( k ) (c )
x
( 6 ) (81)
48

Where P is equal to probability, k is equal to the number of wrong main numbers in a main
number line and c is equal to the number of wrong numbers in “Viking” number line.

The probability of other money winning combinations can be calculated by subtracting all
the money winning probabilities from the total probability which is one.

Table 2

Correct main numbers + “Viking number” Probability

6+1
( 420) x (60 ) x (70) = 1
(486) ( 81) 98172096
6+0
( 420) x (60 ) x (71) = 1
(486) ( 81) 14024585
5+1
( 421) x (61) x (70) = 1
(486) ( 81) 389572
5+0
( 421) x (61 ) x (71) = 1
(486) ( 81) 55653
4+1
( 422) x (62 ) x (70) = 1
(486) ( 81) 7601
 4+0
( 422) x (62) x (71) = 1
(486) ( 81) 1086
3+1
( 423) x (63) x (70) = 1
(486) ( 81) 428
3+0
( 423) x (63 ) x (71) = 1
(486) ( 81) 61
Others 1 1 1 1 1 1
1− − − − − − −
98172096 14024585 389572 55653 7601 1086

Table 3

Prize money (euros) Probability

5600000 1 in 98 172 096
250 000 1 in 14 024 585
10 000 1 in 389 752
1000 1 in 55 653
50 1 in 7 601
25 1 in 1086
8 1 in 428
4 1 in 61
0 1 in 1.02

On average 98 172 096 tickets need to be bought in order to get all the prizes once. Number
of occurrences of different prizes can be calculated by multiplying the total number of tickets
with its probability.

Table 4

Prize money (euros) Number of occurrences per 98 172 096

tickets
5 600 000 1
98172096 x =1
98172096
250 000 1
98172096 x =7
14 024 585
10 000 1
98172096 x =252
389 752
1000 1
98172096 x =1764
55653
50 1
98172096 x =12916
7601
25 1
98172096 x =90 398
1086
 8 1
98172096 x =229374
428
4 1
98172096 x =1609379
61

The total money gained can be calculated by multiplying number of occurrences by prize
money per each class and summing those together.

Total money gained :=5600000 x 1+250 000 x 7+10000 x 252+1000 x 1764 +50 x 12916+25 x 90398+8 x 22937

Money spent on tickets :

0.8 x 98172096=78537677

22812258 29
Ratio of total money gained∧money spent on tickets : =
78537677 100

The ratio means that if enough tickets are bought the ratio between prize money and money
spent on tickets will eventually be around 29%. So 29% of the money spent on tickets will be
returned to players. This means a 71% deficit for Viking lotto players and 71% profit for the
organizer.

Viking Lotto is organized every week. After 38 weeks from the beginning of year 2020,
statistics show that the main prized had been won seven times. On average a total of
7 x 98172096=687204672 tickets need to be bought in order to get the main prize seven
times. This figure is close to 7 billion and is an exceptionally large number.

Viking Lotto is played in nine countries, including Nordic countries, Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania and Slovenia. The total population of these countries is approximately

5 500 000+10 200 000+5 800 000+5 400 000+360 000+1 300 000+1 900 000+ 2800 000+ 2100 000
= 35 000 000

If every person living in these countries buys one ticket per week, this would result in
35 000 000 x 38=1330 000 000 .

98172096
This would mean that about =0.738=73.8 % of the total population buys
1330000000
lotteries every week based on statistics.

Eurojackpot

Rules

In Eurojackpot, a player chooses five different main numbers from 1-50 and two star
numbers from 1-10. The winning five main numbers and two star numbers will be drawn on
television. One line (five main numbers + 2 star numbers) costs two euros. Compared to
Viking Lotto the prizes are better but one ticket is also significantly more expensive.

Table 5

Prize money (euros) Correct main numbers Correct star numbers

50 000 000 5 2
500 000 5 1
 100 000 5 0
4200 4 2
240 4 1
100 4 0
58 3 2
21 2 2
18 3 1
15 3 0
10 1 2
8 2 1

Combinations can also be used here to determine the probabilities of winning these prizes.

The five main numbers are chosen from a set of size 50. The number of ways of picking five
numbers from a set of 50 is given by (505 )=2118760. It is equal to the number of possible five
1
number lines. The probability of picking the correct main number line is therefore .
2118760

The two star numbers are chosen from a set of size 10. The number of ways of picking two
numbers from a set of 10 is given by (102 )=45. It gives the number of possible two number
1
lines. The probability of picking the correct star number line is therefore .
45

1 1 1
The probability of winning the main prize is x =
2118760 45 95344200

Calculating the probability of winning other prizes is a bit more complex. For example,
to calculate the probability of getting three correct main numbers and one correct star
number, a slightly different approach must be taken.

Getting three correct main numbers also means getting two wrong numbers. The number of
ways of choosing five numbers from a set of size 50 is still the same. However like in Viking
lotto there are now different ways of choosing the two wrong numbers. The number of
different ways of choosing three correct numbers and two wrong number is given by

( 452) x (52 ). ( 452) is derived when we want to find the number of ways of picking two wrong
5
numbers from the set of wrong numbers. The set of wrong numbers is 50−5=45. ( ) is
2
derived because the two wrong numbers can appear anywhere in the line of 5 chosen
numbers.

Getting one correct star number means getting one wrong star number as well. The number
of ways of this can happen is given by (81 ) x (21). (81 ) is derived when we want to find the
number of ways of picking one wrong number from the set of wrong numbers. The set of
wrong numbers is 10−2=8. (21) is derived since the wrong numbers can appear anywhere in
the line of 2 chosen numbers. The numbers of ways of choosing two numbers from a set size
of 10 is still (102 ).
Therefore the probability of getting a line of three correct main numbers and one correct star
45 x 5 8 x 2
number is
( 2 ) ( 2 ) x
( 1) ( 1 )
=
1

(505) (102 ) 26485

The standard formula for probabilities in Eurojackpot

45 x 5 8 x 8
P=
( k ) ( k ) x
( c ) (c )

( 505) (102)
Where P stands for probability, k equals the number of wrong numbers in main number line
and c is equal to number of wrong numbers in star number line

Correct main numbers Correct star numbers Probability

5 2
( 450) x (50 ) x (80) x (80 ) =
(505) ( 102)
1
95344200
5 1
( ) ( ) (81) x (81 ) =
45 x 5
0 0
x
( ) ( 102)
50
5
1
5959012
5 0
( ) ( ) (82) x (82 ) =
45 x 5
0 0
x
( ) ( 102)
50
5
1
3405150
4 2
( ) ( ) ( 80) x (80) = 1
45 x 5
1 1
x
( ) (102) 423752
50
5
4 1 45 x ( 1 )
( )
1
x
50
( ) 5
4 0
( 451) x (51 ) x ( 82) x (82 ) =¿
(505) (102 )
3 2
( 452) x (52 ) x ( 80) x (80)
(505) (102)
2 2
( 453) x (53 ) x ( 80) x (80 )
(505) (102 )
3 1
( 452) x (52 ) x=¿
(505)
3 0
( 452) x (52 ) x ( 82) x (82)
(505) (102)
1 2
( 454) x (54 ) x ( 80) x (80)
( 505) (102)
2 1
( 453) x (53 ) x ( 81) x (81 )
(505) (102 )