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pROBABILITY CASE STUDY

This document contains 3 case studies related to probability and statistics: 1) The first case study examines whether a pilot has a better chance of surviving their 50th mission given that they safely completed 49 prior missions. 2) The second case study calculates the probability that Professor Rose passed a student given that Professors Smith and Brown did not pass the student. 3) The third case study determines the probability that a defendant is guilty based on conflicting testimonies from two witnesses - one who is a friend and may lie, and one who is an enemy and may also lie.

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Zain Tahir
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111 views3 pages

pROBABILITY CASE STUDY

This document contains 3 case studies related to probability and statistics: 1) The first case study examines whether a pilot has a better chance of surviving their 50th mission given that they safely completed 49 prior missions. 2) The second case study calculates the probability that Professor Rose passed a student given that Professors Smith and Brown did not pass the student. 3) The third case study determines the probability that a defendant is guilty based on conflicting testimonies from two witnesses - one who is a friend and may lie, and one who is an enemy and may also lie.

Uploaded by

Zain Tahir
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability & Statistics


Case Studies

Name : ZAIN TAHIR


Registration No : 18005134-019
Course Code : ME-321
Program : BSME – 05
Semester No : 5th
Submitted To : Engr.Yasir Khalid
University of Management and Technology
Sialkot Campus
S c h o o l o f Me c h a n i c a l E n g i n e e r i n g

Probability & Statistics


CASE STUDIES

Course Code : NS-321 Deadline : 1 Day


Program : BSME (Batch-5) Total Marks : 10 Marks
Resource Person : M. Yasir Khalid Due Date : December 19, 2020

Student’s Name: _____________________ ID: _____________________

CASE STUDY (Fahad, Ali Hassan, Jazab, Hanan, Urwa, Zain)


In a certain country, the probability that a fighter plane returns from a mission without mishap is 49/50,
independent of other missions. In a conversation, Mia concluded that any pilot who flew 49 consecutive
missions without mishap should be returned home before the fiftieth mission. But, on considering the matter,
Jim concluded that the probability of a randomly selected pilot being able to fly 49 consecutive missions safely
is (49/50)49 = 0.3716017. In other words, the odds are almost two to one against an ordinary pilot performing
the feat that this pilot has already performed. Hence the pilot would seem to be more skillful than most and
thus has a better chance of surviving the 50th mission. Who is right, Mia, Jim, or neither of them? Explain.

CASE STUDY (Faisal, Fatima, Abdul Mateen, Shehriyar, Ali Haider)


A student at a certain university will pass the oral Ph.D. qualifying examination if at least two of the three
examiners pass her or him. Past experience shows that (a) 15% of the students who take the qualifying exam
are not prepared, and (b) each examiner will independently pass 85% of the prepared and 20% of the
unprepared students. Kevin took his Ph.D. qualifying exam with Professors Smith, Brown, and Rose. What is
the probability that Professor Rose has passed Kevin if we know that neither Professor Brown nor Professor
Smith has passed him? Let S, B, and R be the respective events that Professors Smith, Brown, and Rose have
passed Kevin. Are these three events independent? Are they conditionally independent given that Kevin is
prepared?
CASE STUDY (Qadir, Jawad, Ghulam Nabi, Tayyab)
In a trial, the judge is 65% sure that Susan has committed a crime. Julie and Robert are two witnesses who
know whether Susan is innocent or guilty. However, Robert is Susan’s friend and will lie with probability 0.25
if Susan is guilty. He will tell the truth if she is innocent. Julie is Susan’s enemy and will lie with probability
0.30 if Susan is innocent. She will tell the truth if Susan is guilty. What is the probability that Susan is guilty
if Robert and Julie give conflicting testimony?

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