Stochastic in Highway Metodologi Penelitian

Engineering
Pavement Engineering
 Stochastic Phenomena
(Pavement Engineering)

• Theoretically, the
deterioration process of a
pavement is the result of
various factors affecting the
mechanistic characteristics
of pavements,
 such as traffic,
environment, material
properties, and the
degree of maintenance.
 Stochastic
Phenomena
(Pavement
Engineering)
 Stochastic
Phenomena
(Pavement
Engineering)
 Stochastic Phenomena
(Pavement Engineering)
 Stochastic
Phenomena
(Pavement
Engineering)
 Stochastic Phenomena
(Pavement Engineering)
 Stochastic Phenomena
(Pavement Engineering)
Stochastic Phenomena
(Pavement Engineering)
• ZR = standard normal deviate. The standard normal table value corresponding to
a desired probability of exceedance level. For example, a designer may specify
that there should only be a 5 % chance that the design does not last a specified
number of years (e.g., 20 years). This is the same as stating that there should be a
95 % chance that the design does last the specified number of years (e.g., 20
years). Then, the reliability is 95 % (100 % – 5 %) and the corresponding ZR value
is -1.645 (see 1993 AASHTO Guide, Table 4.1, p. I-62). ‘
 Stochastic Phenomena
(Pavement Engineering)
Stochastic
Phenomena
(Pavement
Engineering)
Minnesota DOT, 1999
Traffic
Engineering
 Stochastic
Phenomena
(Traffic
Engineering)
Stochastic Phenomena
(Traffic Engineering)
 Stochastic
Phenomena
(Traffic
Engineering)
Stochastic Behaviour

Computer simulation has to do with using computer models to imitate

real life or make predictions.

Model with a certain number of input parameters and a few equations

that use those inputs to give a set of outputs (or response variables).

This type of model is usually deterministic, meaning that you get the
same results no matter how many times you re-calculate
Monte Carlo
Method
 Montecarlo
• Monte Carlo methods are a class of computational
algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to
compute their results.
• Monte Carlo methods are often used when simulating
physical and mathematical systems.
• Monte Carlo methods are most suited to calculation
by a computer.
• The term Monte Carlo method was coined in the
1940s by physicists (Stanislaw Ulam, Enrico Fermi,
John von Neumann, and Nicholas Metropolis) working
on nuclear weapon projects in the Los Alamos
National Laboratory.
General Steps

• There is no single Monte Carlo method; instead, the term describes

a large and widely-used class of approaches. However, these
approaches tend to follow a particular pattern:

• Define a domain of possible inputs.

• Generate inputs randomly from the domain, and perform a
deterministic computation on them.
• Aggregate the results of the individual computations into the
final result.
 Create a parametric model, y = f(x1, x2, ...,
Step 1 xq).

Generate a set of random inputs, xi1, xi2, ...,

Step 2 xiq.
Procedure of
Monte Carlo
Method Step 3 Evaluate the model and store the results as yi.

Step 4 Repeat steps 2 and 3 for i = 1 to n.

Analyze the results using histograms,

Step 5 summary statistics, confidence intervals, etc.
 • Monte Carlo simulation is a method for iteratively
evaluating a deterministic model using sets of
random numbers as inputs.
• This method is often used when the model is
complex, nonlinear, or involves more than just a
Deterministic couple uncertain parameters.
Model &
Monte Carlo
Method
Deterministic
Model &
Monte Carlo
Method
Random Number
A contradiction?
 Yes, because “generating” means done purposefully, but “random” is
unpredictable
 We generate a sequence of random numbers (=stream) : X0, X1, X2, … while
Xi is integer and 0 ≤ Xi < M
that “looks” random: no test can disprove that
Prob{Xi|Xi-1,Xi-2,…X0} = 1/M (1)
 The stream is pseudo-random
A contradiction?
Xi+1 = (aXi + b) mod M (2)
when X0 (=seed), a, b and M are given constants, mod M is the remainder after
dividing v by M
This is the Linear Congruential Generator (LCG)
(There are many other generators, but this one is used in commercial software)

Example: seed=0, a=2, b=1, M=5: stream=

0,1,3,2,0,1,3,2,0,1,3,2,0,1,3,2,0,1,3,2,…

Does it look random?

Limitations of LCG and remedies - i
• Condition (1) is easily disproved (0,1,3,2 repeats)
• Remedy: M should be big (say 231~2×109), and choice
of M, a and b should be such that for short sequences
(relative to M) condition (1) cannot be rejected by
statistical tests
• (It can be shown that such M, a and b exist – they are
imbedded in commercial software and do not need to
be tested)
MonteCarlo
Example
 Pavement Design Example
PERENCANAAN PERKERASAN FLEXIBLE
RUAS MELONGGUANE-RAINIS
PAVEMENT THICKNESS DESIGN - FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT
(AASHTO)

DATA TRAFFIC : CHECK EQUATION : 7,42 = 5,55

Umur Rencana (tahun) 20 TEBAL LAPIS PERKERASAN :

Faktor Distribusi arah 1/1
Faktor Distribusi lajur 30/70%
Layer Layer thickness Structural
Jenis Lapis Perkerasan
AC WC modifikasi atau SMA modifikasi dengan CTB (pangkat 5) coeff. ( inch) Number
AC- Wearing Course 0,42 1,57 -0,56 40
AC- Binder Course 0,32 5,31 1,70 135
Total ESAL UR 20 TAHUN 26.484.110

CTB 0,14 5,91 0,83 150

CBR (%) 6,00 kg/cm3 LPA Kelas A 0,13 5,91 0,77 150
Resilient Modulus (MR) 9.000 psi
2,732
SERVICEABILITY :
- Terminal Serviceability (Pt) 2,50
- Initial Serviceability (Po) 4,20
- Serviceability Loss (∆PSI) 1,70
RELIABILITY, R (%) 95,00 SKET GAMBAR :
STANDAR NORMAL DEVIATION (Zr) (1,645)
STANDAR DEVIATION (So) 0,35 AC Wearing Course 4 cm
DRAINAGE COEFFICIENT (m) 1,30 AC Binder Course 13,5 cm
STRUCTURAL NUMBER (SN) 2,732 CTB 15 cm

LPA Kelas A 15 cm
 Pavement Design Example
I. DASAR- DASAR PERHITUNGAN

1 Faktor Perusak Kendaraan /Vehicle Damage Factor ( VDF )

Note : Menurut "Buku Pedoman Konstruksi & Bangunan / PD T-05-2005-B"
4
a. Sumbu Tunggal Roda Tunggal (STRT) VDF = ( P/5400 )
4
b. Sumbu Tunggal Roda Ganda (STRG) VDF = ( P/8160 )
4
c. Sumbu Ganda Roda Ganda (SGRG) VDF = ( P/13760 )
4
d. Sumbu Triple Roda Ganda (STRG) VDF = ( P/18450 )

Berat Berat Total Berat Beban Sumbu VDF

NO. TIPE KENDARAAN Kendaraan Muatan Kendaraan Sb. Depan Sb. Blkg Sumbu Total VDF Keterangan
Sumbu Depan
(kg) (kg) (kg) (kg) (kg) Belakang

1 Sepeda Motor - - - - - - - -
2 Mobil Sedan 1,500 500 2,000 1,000 1,000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0024 0.000224996 2.22225944
3 Angkot - 2 ton 1,500 500 2,000 1,000 1,000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0024
4 Bus- 10.5 ton 3,000 6,000 9,000 3,060 5,940 0.1031 0.2808 0.3839
5 Truk Ringan 1 - 2 (STRG) 2,300 6,000 8,300 2,822 5,478 0.0746 0.2031 0.2777
6 Truk Sedang 1 - 2 (STRG) 4,200 14,000 18,200 6,188 12,012 1.7244 4.6957 6.4201
7 Truk Berat 1. 22 (SGRG) 5,000 20,000 25,000 6,250 18,750 1.7945 3.4477 5.2422
8 Truk Berat 1.2 - 2 (SGRG) 6,200 20,000 26,200 4,716 21,484 0.5817 5.9427 6.5245
9 Truk Berat 1.2 + 2. 2 (STRG) 6,400 25,000 31,400 5,652 25,748 1.2001 3.7930 4.9932
10 Truk Berat 1.2 - 2.2 (STRG) 10,000 32,000 42,000 7,560 34,440 3.8416 12.1414 15.9830
Pavement Design Example
1. Assume CESAL follow triangle distribution (in Million)

ESAL

15 26 50
55,00

50,00

y = 63,922x3 - 81,673x2 + 49,538x + 16,554

R² = 0,9941
45,00

40,00

35,00

30,00

25,00

20,00
- 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20

Pavement Design Example

2. Generate Cumulative Distribution Function
 Simulation Run-1 Random Number W18
1 0,10 20,55
2 0,20 23,33
3 0,40 27,39
Pavement 4 0,70 33,56
5 0,20 23,33
Design 6 0,50 29,18

Example 7
8
0,90
0,70
40,76
33,56
9 0,50 29,18
3. Generate Random Number 10 0,50 29,18
and Estimate CESAL based on 11 0,30 25,53
distribution
12 1,00 46,07
13 0,90 40,76
14 1,00 46,07
15 0,40 27,39
 LHS
SN W18 Log(W18)
Pavement Design Basis 5,357178 26484110,41 7,422985
Example Montecarlo
1 5,17 20545626,00 7,31
2 5,27 23332168,00 7,37
3 5,39 27387984,00 7,44
4 5,54 33563478,00 7,53
4. Solve the Equation and
5 5,27 23332168,00 7,37
determine SN for each 6 5,44 29175250,00 7,47
simulation run 7 5,68 40763274,00 7,61
8 5,54 33563478,00 7,53
9 5,44 29175250,00 7,47
10 5,44 29175250,00 7,47
11 5,34 25526622,00 7,41
12 5,77 46065000,00 7,66
13 5,68 40763274,00 7,61
14 5,77 46065000,00 7,66
15 5,39 27387984,00 7,44
 Percentile 80 90 95
SN 5,682336 5,771144 5,771151

Pavement 5

Design 4

Example
3

Number
2

0
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9
SN
Assignment
of Monte
Carlo
Tugas
• Lakukan 50 simulasi pada kasus diatas, kemudian berikan analisis
terhadap hasil yang diperoleh jika diketahui parameter LGC sbb:
Parameters
a 16807
b 4
M 2147483647

seed (3 angka terakhir NIM) 9

perkalian (skala) 1
pembulatan 0,1

• Submit dalam bentuk makalah 2-3 halaman, maksimal hari Rabu, 30

Oktober 2019 @23:55