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Final - Mast221 - 18F-Solution Hints

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76 views4 pages

Final - Mast221 - 18F-Solution Hints

Uploaded by

Mariam Caceres
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Concordia University

Department of Mathematics and Statistics


Course Number Section
MAST 221/2 01
Examination Date Time Pages
Final December 2018 3 Hours 4
Instructor Course Examiner Marks
D. Sen D. Sen 100
Special Instructions: Closed Book Exam.
1. Answer ALL questions.
2. Calculators are allowed.
3. Show your work in details
and clearly identify.
4. Table of N (0, 1) distribution is attached
at the end of this booklet.
[(4 × 2) + 4 ]
Q 1. Let A and B be two events such that P (A) = 0.59, P (B) = 0.30 and P (A ∩ B) =
0.21. Let A′ and B ′ denote the complements of A and B respectively. Find:

(a) i)P (A ∪ B) ii)P (A ∩ B ′ ) iii)P (A′ ∪ B ′ ) iv)P (A′ ∩ B ′ )


(b) If events A, B and C are independent, show that A and B ∩ C are independent.
[5+5 ]
Q 2. Disease I and II are prevalent among people in a certain population. It is assumed
that 10% of the population will contract disease I sometime during their lifetime,
15% will contract disease II eventually, and 3% will contract both diseases.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen person from this population will
contract at least one disease.
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen person from this population will
contract both diseases, given that he or she has contracted at least one disease.
[3 × 4 ] If not sure of your solution, please discuss during review session/Cool hours.
Q 3. If the joint probability density of X and Y is given by
{
2 f or x > 0, y > 0, x + y < 1
f (x, y) =
0 elsewhere
(a) Find P (X ≤ 12 , Y ≤ 21 ).
(b) Find P (X + Y > 23 ).
(c) Find P (X > 2Y ).

Solution: See the lecture notes


MAST 221 Final Examination December 2018 Page 2 of 4
[6+8 ]
Q 4. If the joint probability density function of X and Y is given by
{
1
(2x + y), 0 < x < 1, 0 < y < 2
f (x, y) = 4
0, elsewhere
(a) Find the marginal densities of X and Y .
(b) Find the conditional mean and the conditional variance of X given Y = 14 .
[6+8 ] Solution hint: use Examples 21 and 24.
Q 5.(a) In a gambling game, a person draws a single card from an ordinary 52-card play-
ing deck. A person is paid $15 for drawing a jack or a queen, and $5 for drawing
a king or an ace. A person who draws up any other card pays $4. If a person
plays this game, what is his/her expected gain?
If not sure of your solution, please discuss during review session/Cool hours.
(b) Find the moment-generating function of the discrete random variable X that has
the probability distribution
{
θ(1 − θ)x−1 , x = 1, 2, 3, ...
f (x) =
0, elsewhere
and use it to determine the values of mean and variance.
[7+5 ] Solution: See the assignment
Q 6.(a) In a certain city, the daily consumption of electric power in millions of kilowatt-
hours can be treated as a random variable having a gamma distribution with
α = 3 and β = 2. If the power plant of this city has a daily capacity of 12 million
kilowatt-hours, what is the probability that this power supply will be inadequate
on any given day?
Answer: P[X >12], use integration by parts =0.062
(b) Show that if a random variable has an exponential density with the parameter θ,
the probability that it will take on a value less than −θ. ln(1 − p) is equal to p for
0 ≤ p < 1.
[8+8 ]
Q 7.(a) If the random variables X, Y , and Z have the means µX = 2, µY = −3 and µZ =
2
4, the variances σX = 1, σY2 = 5, σZ2 = 2, and the covariances cov(X, Y ) = −2,
cov(X, Z) = −1, and cov(Y, Z) = 1, find the mean and variance of (3X −Y +2Z).
(b) It is known from experience that 1.4% of the calls received by a switchboard
are wrong numbers. Find the probability that among 150 calls received by the
switchboard at least two are wrong numbers.

(a): See Example 18 (Chapter 4)


(b): direct computation using binomial
distribution, or its Poisson approximation
(Examples 8, 9, 10-- Chapter 5)
MAST 221 Final Examination December 2018 Page 3 of 4

[5+5 ]

Q 8. The weekly amount of money spent on maintenance and repairs by a company was
observed, over a long period of time, to be approximately normally distributed
with mean $400 and standard deviation $20.

(a) If $450 is budgeted for next week, what is the probability that the actual costs
will exceed the budgeted amount?

(b) How much should be budgeted for weekly repairs and maintenance to provide
that the probability the budgeted amount will be exceeded in a given week is
only 0.10?

Answers: use mu=400, sigma=20. X= weekly money spent.


(a)P[X>450] = Prob[Z>2.5]=0.00621
(b)P[X>c]=P[Z> (c-400)/20]=0.10. Solve for c [ans: $425.63]

COPYRIGHT

The present document and the contents thereof are the property and copyright of the pro-
fessor(s) who prepared this exam at Concordia University. No part of the present document
may be used for any purpose other than research or teaching purposes at Concordia Univer-
sity. Furthermore, no part of the present document may be sold, reproduced, republished or
re-disseminated in any manner or form without the prior written permission of its owner
and copyright holder.
MAST 221 Final Examination December 2018 Page 4 of 4

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