Impact of Global Climate Change on Pakistan Agriculture (Crops) Sector By 2020

Mirza Asjad Baig

Economics Department, IoBM, Pakistan
[email protected]

Abstract
Agriculture sector of Pakistan is most vulnerable to climate change and changes in cropping and
productivity due to weather changes will affect the poor communities. The dry land areas, including arid
and semi-arid regions are most vulnerable to these changes, as these regions are already facing water
shortages and high temperature. According to the vulnerability index Pakistan is ranked 12 th globally
whose economic losses (crops, livestock etc) are expected to suffer severely from climatic change i.e.
higher temperatures and decreased surface water availability and changing precipitation patterns. In 2020,
additional increase in the level of temperature would increase the major crops production but reduce the
fruit crops output where as water availability has positive impact on both major and fruit crops while
rainfall just only supports to the fruit crops production in Pakistan. Global warming will increase the
frequency and intensity of extreme events i.e. flood, drought, cyclone that would harm the agriculture
production and also affect the water balance.

Key words
Green House Gases, Global Warming, Crops production and human activities.

INTRODUCTION are emitted by human activities i.e. burning

of fossil fuel, industrial process, land
The global climate has been evolving
degradation, deforestation for urbanization
continuously over millennia but the last few
decades have witnessed the global climate and agriculture purposes. The emissions of
change due to massive emission of the green house gases (GHGs) are increasing at
greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, a rate of 23 ppm per decade, which is
nitrous oxide and water vapors) by increase in highest rise since the last 6.5 million years
the human activities. Global Climate change is as a result of human activities 3. Percentage
mainly caused by economic activities and contribution of different sectors in the
geographical position of many countries which atmospheric concentration of GHGs is from
make their agriculture sector extremely energy sector 63%, agriculture 13%,
vulnerable to climate change1. During the past
industry 3%, land use and forestry 18% and
decades there has been observed an average
waste 3% and these percentages contribution
annual increase in atmospheric temperature of
is being increased nowadays4.
about 2.9°C in Asia2. The green house gases
(GHGs) are responsible for the global The atmosphere plays a vital role to
warming, which are comprised of Carbon maintain the overall earth average
Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous temperature at level of 15 C5 whereas
o

Oxide (N2O) and water vapors. These gases 3

Stern (2006)
1 4
Pervez et al, 2010 Rosegrant et al, 2008
2 5
Anjum Bari Farooqi et al, 2005 Edwards, 1999
higher level of carbon dioxide emission manufacturing contributed 18%, agriculture
which enhances the concentration of green is still the predominant sector of national
house gases (GHGs) cause to increase economy. It provides food and fiber to the
overall earth temperature6. There are main
growing population of the country, hence is
consequences of global warming may
appear in the form of more frequent floods an important contributor to food-security as
and drought, food shortage, non supporting well as supporter to the foreign earnings and
weather conditions, newly born diseases, sea it presently employs 44.7% of Pakistan’s
level rise, etc.7 labor force.11

Agricultural productivity is mainly Pakistan Agriculture and climate change

influenced by weather and climate factors
Impact of global climate would be severe in
e.g. in 1987 weak monsoon rains caused tropical areas, which mainly consists of
huge shortfalls in crop production in India, developing countries, including Pakistan. In
Bangladesh, and Pakistan, contributing to Pakistan, climate change raises concerns
reversion to wheat importation by India and with its incredible social, environmental and
Pakistan8. Many countries which lie under economic impacts. Pakistan is frequently
tropical and sub-tropical regions are exposed to natural hazards like floods,
droughts and cyclones. The agriculture
expected to be more vulnerable to warming
sector of Pakistan is most vulnerable to
because of additional increase in climate change and changes in cropping and
temperature will affect marginal water productivity due to weather changes will
balance and harm agricultural sector9. affect the poor communities. The dry land
According to Intergovernmental Panel on areas, including arid and semi-arid regions
Climate Change (IPCC) projections, are most vulnerable to these changes, as
these regions are already facing water
agricultural productivity is to be decline
shortages and high temperature. the seasonal
substantially in Asia with thermal stress and changes in crops which will consequently
increasing occurrence of droughts and lead to changing irrigation requirements,
floods. Recent data recorded indicates a altering soil characteristics and increasing
30% decline in major crop yields due to the risk of pests and diseases, thereby
water logging, salinity and floods. The negatively affecting agriculture productivity.
growing of pests as a consequence of In Pakistan, this vulnerability is high
because of its large population and
warmer climate and increased precipitation
economic dependence on primary natural
has also been observed as contributing to resources, being basically an agriculture
crop decline.10 economy.
Pakistan is facing the adverse impacts of
In Pakistan, agriculture’s contribution to climate change with higher glacial melt,
national GDP has decreased, from 53% in prolonged droughts, hot winter & early
1949-50 to 20.9 % in 20010-11, and summers which are negatively affecting
6
water resources & overall agricultural
Brown, 1998
7 productivity. The carbon sinks are degrading
Tisdell, 2008
8
World Food Institute, 1988
fast as the country has low forest cover
9
Mendelssohn et al, 2000;Obioha, 2008
10 11
Zia Mustafa, 2011 GOP, 2011.
(4.5%) with a high rate of deforestation of  Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
about 0.2-0.4% per annum. Long term  Allow emission to continue, but prepare for
impacts of climate change are expected to global climate changes
threaten our biodiversity (loss of species and  Develop a better infrastructure to support
their habitats), water availability, food the agriculture growth.
security, human health and overall well  Water conservation management and the
being. irrigation system have to be improved.
 Main issue of climate change is global
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
warming. Therefore, researchers have to
produce heat resistant seeds.
Pakistan is agro based country, highly  Use good quality seeds.
vulnerable to climate change around 22.8 %  Establishment of diffrent Agricultral zones.
area and 49.6% population is at risk there is  Advance technology.
needed to secure domestic consumption by  Proper irigation system.
increasing the level of crops (major & fruit)
production and the surplus production can ACKNOWLEDGMENT:
be exported abroad to foreign exchange
earnings. The agriculture production system This research would not have been possible
of Pakistan is predominantly irrigated, without the support of Dr. Shahid Amjad. I wish
which derives 60-80% of its water from to express my gratitude to supervisor, Prof. Dr.
snow/ice melt. It is under threat from Shahid Amjad who was abundantly helpful and
climate change which is reducing the offered invaluable assistance, support and
reserves which would create water shortage guidance.
problem in future. Based on the past 44
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