PDF Final Project On Commodity Print Auto Saved - Compress
PDF Final Project On Commodity Print Auto Saved - Compress
PDF Final Project On Commodity Print Auto Saved - Compress
Project Report
On
At
By
"Nilaya Murthy"
Submitted to
Project Report
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Concentration, dedication, hard work and application are essential but not only factor
to achieve desired goal, these must be supplemented by guidance and co-operation of
the people to make it success.
The following project is the result, not only of my hard work, but also of the help
received from my seniors in the company, so it is my duty to record my sincere thanks
for their great help.
I deeply thank Mr. Rakesh Sonavane (Regional Head) for giving me an opportunity to
work on this project, in successfully emerging organization called “BMA Wealth
Creators ltd”.
I express my sincere regards and deep sense of gratitude to Mibm College and my
project guide Prof. Nilaya Murthy whose aspiring explanation has enable me to
complete this project work.
I am also thankful to our Principal Prof. Vijay Karkhanis who developed the votes of
confidence and shown the best possible path.
DECLARATION
It‟s my original work and is not submitted to any other organization for any other
purpose.
Executive summary:
This project has been a great learning experience for me; at the same time it
gave me enough scope to implement my analytical ability. This project as a
whole can be divided into two parts:
The first part gives an insight about the Commodity and its various
aspects.
One can have a brief knowledge about Commodity market
All the topics have been covered in a systematic way. The language
has been kept simple so that even a layman could understand. All the
data have been well analyzed with the help of charts and graphs.
The second part consists of data and their analysis collected through a
sport price on the terminal. It covers the topic “Commodity Analysis‟‟.
The data collected has been well organized and presented.
Hope the research findings and conclusions will be of use. It has also
covered why people don‟t want to invest in Commodity? The advisors
can take further steps to approach more and more people and indulge
them for taking their advices to invest in Commodity.
The project study of Commodity market was undertaken with the view
to get an insight into the Commodity market and to study the trading
strategies using futures and options. In this report, only some scripts
(Gold, Silver, Crude, and Natural Gas) have been considered for
study. This project not only gives a detailed idea about futures and
options in the Commodity market but also serves the purpose of
building awareness among the readers about the market
Introduction
Crude Oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off
August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady-to-higher
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that
sideways-to-higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the
reaction high crossing are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
If it renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the
2009-2011-rally crossing is the next downside target.
4 Research Methodology.
5 Theoretical background
6 Data Collection
7 Data Analysis
8 Day trading levels, statics and Interpretation of the data (Gold, Silver,
Crude, Natural Gas)
9 Conclusions.
10 Recommendations
11 Limitations
12 Findings
13 Bibliography
14 References
Objectives of the Project Work:
As name of project
The term “market” is sometimes used for what are more strictly
exchanges, organizations that facilitate the trade in financial securities,
e.g., a stock exchange or commodity exchange.
Scope of the stock market is very large; no one can know the stock market in
months or year. Even a 20-25 year experienced person cannot understand the
stock market in full extent. Here I just tried to clear concepts of the stock
market to a very small extent.
The scope of this project is limited to the study of the Indian commodity
market. Under the commodity market only some scripts have been considered
in this project. In this project report, futures and options have been studied in
detail.
The project also covers various strategies such as hedging, spread trading, and
Arbitrage which can be used in the commodity market. Futures contracts are
extensively used as a hedging tool to minimize the risk arising out on account
of price changes in the market.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
During my project, I collected data through various sources primary & Secondary.
For the operational procedure I visited the every Department of the Broking
Firm & Collected the related information.
For the various Fundamental & Technical Analysis I collected the Data from the
various websites.
Market Segments:
1. Primary Market
The primary is that part of the capital markets that deals with the issuance of
new securities. Companies, governments or public sector institutions can
obtain funding through the sale of a new stock or bond issue.
2. Secondary Market
The Secondary market is the financial market for trading of securities that
have already been issued in an initial private or public offering.
Doing share trading with the help of broker or through phone is called Offline
trading.
2. Online Trading
Doing share trading with help of computer, internet connection and with
trading/de mat account is called Online Trading.
SECURITY RESEARCH is a discipline with the financial services industry.
Securities research professionals are known most generally as “analysts”,
“research analysts” or “security analysts”; all the foregoing terms are
synonymous. Security analysts are commonly divided between the two basic
kinds of securities: equity analysts (researching stocks and their issuers) and
fixed income analysts (researching bond issuers). However, there are some
analysts who cover all of the securities of a particular issuer, stock and bonds
alike.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS is the cornerstone of investing, In fact, some
would say that you aren‟t really investing if you aren‟t performing
fundamental analysis. The biggest part
of fundamental analysis involves delving into the financial statements. Also
known as quantitative analysis, this involves looking at revenue, expenses,
assets, liabilities and all the other financial aspects of a company.
Fundamental analysts look at this information to gain insight on the
company‟s future performance. Here we deal about the balance sheet, income
statement, cash flow statement and how they all fit together.
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Company Analysis
Commodity markets have existed for centuries around the world because producers
and buyers of foodstuffs and other items have always needed a common place to
trade.
What we know as the Commodity market of today came from some humble
beginnings. Trading in futures originated in Japan during the 18th century and was
primarily used for the trading of rice and silk. It wasn't until the 1850s that the U.S.
started using futures markets to buy and sell commodities such as cotton, corn and
wheat.
The first organized grain futures trading in the U.S. began in places such as New York
City and Buffalo, but the development of “modern” futures, which are a unique type
of forward agreement, began in Chicago in the 1840s.
Before the North American futures market originated some 150 years ago, farmers
would grow their crops and then bring them to market in the hope of selling their
commodity of inventory. But without any indication of demand, supply often
exceeded what was needed, and unpurchased crops were left to rot in the streets.
Conversely, when a given commodity such as Soybeans were out of season, the goods
made from it became very expensive because the crop was no longer available, lack
of supply
With the construction of the railroads, Chicago began to emerge as a center for
transportation between Midwestern producers and east coast population centers.
The city was a natural hub for trade, but the trading that took place there was
inefficient and unorganized until a group of Chicago-based business men formed the
Board of Trade of the City of Chicago in 1848. The Board was a member-owned
organization that offered a centralized location for cash trading of a variety of goods
as well as trading of forward contracts. Members served as brokers who facilitated
trading in return for commissions.
As trading of forward contracts increased, the Board decided that standardizing those
Instead of individualized contracts, which took a great deal of time to negotiate and
fulfill, people interested in the forward trading of corn at the Board, for example, were
were identical in terms of quantity, quality, delivery month and terms, all as
established by the exchange. The only thing left for traders to negotiate was price and
They were also different from other forwards in that the bids, offers and negotiated
prices of the trades were made public by the exchange. This practice established
Today's commodity market is a global marketplace not only for agricultural products,
but also currencies and financial instruments such as Treasury bonds and securities
marketplace where a Kansas farmer can match a bid from a buyer in Europe.
The usefulness of futures trading became apparent, and a number of other futures
exchanges were established throughout the country in the decades that followed. The
Chicago Butter and Egg Board was founded in 1898 and evolved into Chicago
New York, St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Memphis, New
Orleans and elsewhere. Chicago, however, became the most influential and
Long Short
Because the commodity market is both highly active and central to the global
marketplace, it's a good source for vital market information and sentiment indicators.
Price Discovery - Due to its highly competitive nature, the futures market has
tomorrows estimated amount of supply and demand. Futures market prices depend on
a continuous flow of information from around the world and thus require a high
displacement, land reclamation, and deforestation can all have a major effect on
supply and demand, and hence the present and future price of a commodity. This kind
of information and the way people absorb it constantly changes the price of a
Risk Reduction - Futures markets are also a place for people to reduce risk when
making purchases. Risks are reduced because the price is pre-set, therefore letting
participants know how much of the commodity they will need to buy or sell. This
helps reduce the ultimate cost to the retail buyer, because with less risk there is less
chance of manufacturers hiking up prices to make up for profit losses in the cash
market.
Why trading in grains are so important????
Let's take a look at a few of the grains that have futures contracts: wheat is used to
make flour, bread, and crackers. Its byproduct is used to feed livestock, and it's also
Corn is used for food for human, as well as livestock and poultry. It's also used to
make cornstarch, margarine, and sweeteners. Ethanol is made from corn, as are some
Rice feeds billions of people around the globe every day. It's eaten in its original form
as a food and as a cereal. The byproducts of rice are used to make fertilizers and other
products.
Soybeans are used as a food and to make oils that are found in margarine and salad
dressing, just to name a few products. They are also used to make soy milk and tofu.
Soybeans are also manufactured into ink, diesel fuel, adhesives and some fabrics.
Grains are valuable commodities that are needed to feed humans as well as livestock
and poultry. They are also valuable in making products that we use everyday. Because
National Multi-Commodity
Exchange
New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) - which includes coffee, cocoa, cotton,
orange juice and sugar?
A) Fundamental Analysis:-
Security Name : ONGC
Face Value: 10.00
52 Week High Price: 1346.00
52 Week Low Price: 97.35
Management – ONGC
Name Designation
A K Hazarika Chairman and Managing director
D K Sarraf Director (Finance)
Sudhir Bhargava Director
S S Rajsekar Director
Santosh Nautiyal Director
R S Butola Director
D Chandrasekharam Additional Director
Usha Thorat Additional Director
Arun Ramanathan Additional Director
Designation
Name
U N Bose Director
S Vasudeva Director
L M Vas Director
S Balachandran Director
Anita Das Director
S V Rao Director
K S Jamestin Director (Human Resources)
Deepak Nayyar Additional Director
SWOT ANALYSIS OF ONGC LTD.
Strength
ONGC have the leading market share in India.
Huge and strong infrastructure.
Technological advancement that were implemented over the last few years.
ONGC have the majority of the oil field in India and they own the largest oil field in
India. Bombay High.
Weakness
ONGC not differentiated enough and diversified enough
Weak presence in global market due to high competitive environment with respect to
oil and gas exploration.
Opportunities:
The overall gas production is set to double within 3 to 4 years thus demand meeting
the supply. This may result in government deregulating the natural gas prices.
Diversification into the downstream business to have a competitive advantage.
Going global in exploration and refining area will widen the exposure.
Threats
GOI continually forces ONGC to focus just on one industry and not let them
diversify.
GOI are stopping ONGC from bidding on other outside sources of oils fields.
Now renewable, sustainable and non toxic forms of power generation as substitute
form of nuclear energy like wind energy.
Capital requirements are very large and the industry is hitting the mature stage.
Financials (2010-2011)
ONGC posted a net profit of Rs.161.26 billion despite volatile oil markets and crude
prices.
Net worth Rs.781 billion
Practically Zero Debt Corporate
Contributed over Rs.280 billion to the exchequer.
DATA ANALYSIS
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
1500000
1000000
Rs in million
Sales Volume(in
500000
million)
0
2009 2010 2011
Year
INTERPRETATION
As there shown in graph the sales volume is increasing continuously from previous
three years due to increase in production capacity and joint venture with foreign
companies.
GROWTH SALES:-
Growth
Growh(%),
6.4 Mar-10, 6.33
Growh(%),
6.2 Mar-11, 6.11
Mar-09, 5.68
5.6
5.4
5.2
2009 2010 2011
Year
INTERPRETATION:
Growth in sales volume is 5.68% in 2008 where Oil prices are higher and then it has
sharp decline causes to low demand in market led to reduction in growth to 6.33% in
2011.
PROFIT BEFORE TAX AND PROFIT AFTER TAX
400000
300000
Rs in
million 200000 Profit before tax
100000 Profit after tax
0
2009 2010 2011
year
INTERPRETATION:-
Despite volatile oil markets and crude oil prices, ONGC company as earned a net
profit of Rs.194035 million in 2011 which is more as compare to previous year.
COMMODITY PROFILE– CRUDE OIL
Though crude oil is found in ancient time, people knew about it more as a medicine,
not as a fuel. It was only in 1859 that modern day oil industry was born. People
started using oil initially in the form of kerosene, lubricants etc. In 1889, Germany‟s
Daimler and Wilhelm Maybach first built one gasoline engine, and it was the
beginning of the modern day automobile industry.
Usage
Common usage of crude oil or petroleum can be classified as follows: ethane, diesel
fuel (petrol-diesel), fuel oils, gasoline (petrol), jet fuel, kerosene and liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG). About 35 percent of the world‟s primary energy consumption is
supplied by oil, followed by coal with 25 percent and natural gas with 21 percent.
Transport relies to well over 90 percent on oil, be it transport on roads, by ships or by
aircrafts. Therefore, the economy and the lifestyle of industrialized societies rely
heavily on the sufficient supply of oil.
DOWN BREAK
S3 3750.4 LAST DAY Strong bear
OUT
Crude Oil Conclusion - Downtrend targeting $45 to $50 by start of September 2009,
thereafter base building before the next leg higher.
DOWN BREAK
S3 23570.3 LAST DAY Bull
OUT
S4 23348.8 BEAR HIGH 24205.0
DOWN BREAK
S3 172.8 LAST DAY Strong bear
OUT
S4 169.1 BEAR HIGH 184.7
DOWN BREAK
S3 55460.4 LAST DAY Strong bear
OUT
S4 53341.2 BEAR HIGH 62384.0
Conclusions:
Before investing money in any of the company the investor should find the
facts on his own.
Before trading investor should look on the rules and regulation provided by
the SEBI . For safety of the investor.
War or no war, crude oil prices are bound to trend higher based on fundamental
factors discussed above. There will always be some element of speculation. However,
in the long run, prices would reflect the fundamentals and in that sense one can be
bullish on oil for long term.
Conclusion
Avoid shares in natural gas companies because they seem to follow the general stock
market more than they follow the price of Natural Gas itself. The right time to buy
them would be at the next major stock market bottom. Natural Gas' current decline in
wave 2 is creating an opportunity that should not be passed.
Conclusion
Natural gas was once considered a throw-away byproduct of oil exploration.
However, it has increased in relevance and importance as the world's crude oil
reserves are slowly being depleted. As more efficient and inexpensive ways of
liquefying natural gas are developed, it is steadily inching its way closer to becoming
a viable fuel alternative for the future.
Conclusion -The Dow is still projecting towards a target of around 7,500 as indicated
in the chart above, which I am sure will be taken by the perma-bears as proof that the
whole move from March was just a bear market rally, just at the point were I expect
the stocks stealth bull market to resume! The in depth update to the stealth stocks bull
market will follow towards the end of this month.
The past month I have been very cautious because the market is wound up and ready
to explode in either direction. During times like this I prefer to stay mostly in cash
until I get low risk setups and a clear trend.
That‟s all for now, but if you would like to get my pre-market video analysis of the
dollar index, each morning and intraday updates along with my trade alerts be sure to
join my premium service at $59 a month which is less than the cost for the dollar
index charting data feed!
Recommendation
1. The most vital problem spotted is of ignorance.
2. Investors should be made aware of the benefits.
3. Nobody will invest until and unless he is fully convinced.
4. Investors should be made to realize that ignorance is no longer bliss and what
they are losing by not investing.
5. Commodity offers a lot of benefit which no other single option could offer.
But most of the people are not aware of what actually a Commodity is? They
only see it as just another investment option. So advisors should try to
change their mindsets.
6. The advisors should target for more and more young investors. Young
investors as well as persons at the height of their career would like to go for
advisors due to lack of expertise and time.
7. The company may try to highlight some benefits of Commodity, rupee cost
averaging and systematic transfer plan, rebalancing etc. these benefits are
not offered by other options single handedly.
So these are enough to drive the investors towards Commodity. Investors
could also try to increase the spectrum of services offered.
Limitation:
The time period of just two months was the major limitation.
To convince the people for a proper interviewing process was also difficult.
Intraday trading
Always respect market do trade only with market direction
Never over trade many trader loose money by leveraging
Do not lose more than 3% of capital in single trade
Always put stop loss
Always watch trend for some time before doing trade
Don't give ear to rumors
Always do little homework before doing trade and trade only in share which you
knows
Always book profit as well as loss
Majority days the trading range will range will below so do not wait for big return on
single day
Market is always right you are wrong
If we take a look at the recent scenario in the Indian financial market then we
can find the market flooded with a variety of investment options which
includes mutual funds, equities, fixed income bonds, corporate debentures,
company fixed deposits, bank deposits, PPF, life insurance, gold, real estate
etc. All these investment options could be judged on the basis of various
parameters such as return, safety convenience, volatility and liquidity
measuring
Bibliography
Websites:
www.bseindia.com
www.nseindia.com
www.earnometer.com
Students should provide the complete link of the website referred and along with the
date and time when assessed. Do not just mention the address of the search engine.
e.g. http://money.howstuffworks.com/customer-service.htrn assessed on Monday 7th
August 2009, 6:30p.m
Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation
Cash Flow ------------------- in Rs. Cr. -------------------
Mar '11 Mar '10 Mar '09 Mar '08 Mar '07
12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths
Net Profit Before Tax 27618.97 24983.84 23895.42 25234.70 23980.26
Net Cash From Operating
32756.85 20388.01 22272.74 21527.63 22910.02
Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from
-16818.70 -13237.10 -17459.91 -10239.43 -5046.97
Investing Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from
-11722.63 -8016.08 -8134.27 -8151.34 -7395.08
Financing Activities
Net (decrease)/increase In
4215.52 -865.18 -3321.44 3136.86 10467.97
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Opening Cash & Cash
18231.04 19096.21 22417.66 19280.79 8812.82
Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash
22446.55 18231.04 19096.21 22417.66 19280.79
Equivalents
Capital Structure (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation)
Period Instrument Authorized Issued -PAIDUP-
Capital Capital
From To (Rs. cr) (Rs. cr) Shares (nos) Face Value Capital
Equity
2009 2010 15000 2138.89 2138872530 10 2138.87
Share
Equity
2008 2009 15000 2138.89 2138872530 10 2138.87
Share
Equity
2007 2008 15000 2138.89 2138872530 10 2138.87
Share
Equity
2006 2007 15000 2138.89 2138872530 10 2138.87
Share
Equity
2005 2006 15000 1425.93 1425933992 10 1425.93
Share
Equity
2004 2005 15000 1425.93 1425933992 10 1425.93
Share
Equity
2003 2004 15000 1425.93 1425933992 10 1425.93
Share
Equity
2002 2003 15000 1425.93 1425933992 10 1425.93
Share
Equity
2001 2002 15000 1425.93 1425933992 10 1425.93
Share
Equity
2000 2001 15000 1425.93 1425933992 10 1425.93
Share
Equity
1999 2000 15000 1425.93 1425933992 10 1425.93
Share