Historical Demand

Potential Customer
Year Frequency
(74%)
2014 34590 4
2015 35249 4
2016 35908 4
2017 36580 4
2018 37264 4
Source: conducted survey

population GR is 1.87% (decrease of increase by 0.187)

the total population for ages 20-54 is 47634

Historical Supply
Year Supplier of Grapes Total Supply
in Region XII (Number of rooms
offered)
2014 0 0
2015 0 0
2016 0 0
2017 0 0
2018 0 0
Source: conducted survey

900 kilos per cropping

Projected Demand
Year Total Demand
2018 151811
2019 154607
2020 157438
2021 160304
2022 163206
Method: statistical parabolic

population by age group (target market)

20-24 9330
25-29 8383
30-34 7353
35-39 6829
40-44 6023
45-49 5273
50-54 4443
total 47634
 Total Demand
69%
138,360 46743 890.7558 34590
140,997 47634 890.7558 35249
143,633 48525 907.4129 35908
146,319 49432 924.3816 36580
149,055 50357 37264

Total Supply
(Number of rooms
offered)
0
0
0
0
0

Projected Supply Projected Demand and Supply, M

Total
Year Total Supply Year
Demand
2018 0 2019 151811
2019 0 2020 154607
2020 0 2021 157438
2021 0 2022 160304
2022 0 2023 163206
Method:
 ratio by service out of the 28% 23% 27% 22%
57 47 55 44
elimination capture attack bomb
2014 138360 38850 32034 37487 29989
2015 140997 39590 32645 38201 30561
2016 143633 40331 33255 38915 31132
2017 146319 41085 33877 39643 31715
2018 149055 41853 34510 40384 32308

ed Demand and Supply, Market Gap, and Market Share

Total Market Market Share
Market Gap
Supply Share in %
0 151811 64800 42.68% 42.68%
0 154607 66096 42.75% 42.75%
0 157438 67418 42.82% 42.82%
0 160304 68766 42.90% 42.90%
0 163206 70142 42.98% 42.98%

c
 Total
1
203

138360
140997
143633
146319
149055
 DEMAND
Year Total Demand
2018 $ 138,360.0
2019 $ 140,996.6
2020 $ 143,633.3
2021 $ 146,319.2
2022 $ 149,055.4

Year # of Retailers Average # of Purchase per block Total Demand

2010 15 20,656.66 309,849.85
2011 15 20,865.31 312,979.65
2012 15 21,076.07 316,141.06
2013 15 21,288.96 319,334.40
2014 15 21,504.00 322,560.00

26,880.00
15,120.00
15,120.00
26,880.00
23,520.00
21,504.00

SUPPLY
Year Total Supply
2018 0.00
2019 0.00
2020 0.00
2021 0.00
2022 0.00

Year # of Competitor Average # of Blocxks Sold (per y Total Supply

2010 5 52,448.54 262,242.71
2011 5 52,978.33 264,891.63
2012 5 53,513.46 267,567.30
2013 5 54,054.00 270,270.00
2014 5 54,600.00 273,000.00
4320000
3636000 33,600.00
2203416 50,400.00
741600 67,200.00
756216 67,200.00
54,600.00
A. Arithmetic Straight Line: Yc = a + Yi - 1
where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc 10,695.39
s = = 2,673.85
N-1 4

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: Yc = a + Yi - 1

where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc -
a= = = -
N-1 4
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2018 138,360.00 - + -
2019 140,996.64 2,673.85 + 138,360.00 = 141,033.85
2020 143,633.28 2,673.85 + 141,033.85 = 143,707.70
2021 146,319.22 2,673.85 + 143,707.70 = 146,381.54
2022 149,055.39 2,673.85 + 146,381.54 = 149,055.39

Standard Deviation:

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2018 - - + -
2019 - - + - = -
2020 - - + - = -
2021 - - + - = -
2022 - - + - = -

Standard Deviation:
 PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 =
0 - 2018 2,673.85 + 149,055.39 =
(37.21) 1,384.53 2019 2,673.85 + 151,729.24 =
(74.42) 5,538.14 2020 2,673.85 + 154,403.08 =
(62.32) 3,884.14 2021 2,673.85 + 157,076.93 =
- - 2022 2,673.85 + 159,750.77 =
10,806.82

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

10,806.82
5

2,161.36

46.49

PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 =
0 - 2015 - + - =
- - 2016 - + - =
- - 2017 - + - =
- - 2018 - + - =
- - 2019 - + - =
-

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

-
5

0.00
 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1
Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
ALUES r = Average rate of Increase
Yc
151,729.24 ∑% increase 7.51564
r= =
154,403.08 N-1 4
157,076.93
159,750.77
162,424.62

B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1

Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
ALUES r = Average rate of Increase
Yc
- ∑% increase #DIV/0!
r= =
- N-1 4
-
-
-
year ahead
of Increase % of HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) =
2018 138360.00 (Decrease)
- 144,671.69 ÷ 1.01 =
0.01 2019 140996.64 1.905635382 146,118.41 ÷ 1.01 =
2020 143633.28 1.87 147,579.59 ÷ 1.01 =
2021 146319.22 1.87 149,055.39 ÷ 1.01 =
2022 149055.39 1.87
7.515635382

Standard Deviation:

year ahead
of Increase % of HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) =
2018 0.00 (Decrease)
- #DIV/0! ÷ #DIV/0! =
#DIV/0! 2019 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! ÷ #DIV/0! =
2020 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! ÷ #DIV/0! =
2021 0.00 #DIV/0! - ÷ #DIV/0! =
2022 0.00 #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Standard Deviation:
AL VALUES PROJECTED VALUES
Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x
143,239.30 (4,879.30) 23807530.3991 2018 149,055.39 x
144,671.69 (3,675.05) 13506006.5998 2019 150,545.94 x
146,118.41 (2,485.13) 6175879.41301 2020 152,051.40 x
147,579.59 (1,260.37) 1588541.29517 2021 153,571.92 x
2022 155,107.64 x
45,077,957.71

andard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N #DIV/0!

45,077,957.71
5

9,015,591.54

3002.60

AL VALUES PROJECTED VALUES

Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2015 - x
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2016 #DIV/0! x
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2017 #DIV/0! x
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2018 #DIV/0! x
2019 #DIV/0! x
#DIV/0!

andard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

#DIV/0!
 5

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!
 C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
OJECTED VALUES n
(1 + r) = Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
1.01 = 150,545.94 n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
1.01 = 152,051.40
1.01 = 153,571.92
1.01 = 155,107.64
1.01 = 156,658.71

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
OJECTED VALUES n
(1 + r) = Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
### = #DIV/0! n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
### = #DIV/0!
### = #DIV/0!
### = #DIV/0!
### = #DIV/0!
Yc = a + bx

∑X 718,364.53 15
= - 2,671.34 = 143,672.91 - 8014
n 5 5
133,566.76
= 2,671.34
50

Yc = a + bx

∑X - 15
= - - = - - 0
n 5 5
-
= -
50
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a +
135,658.90
2018 138,360.00 1 1 138,360.00 135658.90 +
2019 140,996.64 2 4 281,993.28 135658.90 +
2020 143,633.28 3 9 430,899.83 135658.90 +
2021 146,319.22 4 16 585,276.88 135658.90 +
2022 149,055.39 5 25 745,276.94 135658.90 +
718,364.53 15 55 2,181,806.94

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a +
-
2018 - 1 1 - 0.00 +
2019 - 2 4 - 0.00 +
2020 - 3 9 - 0.00 +
2021 - 4 16 - 0.00 +
2022 - 5 25 - 0.00 +
- 15 55 -
AL VALUES PROJECT
b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year
2,671.34 1 = 138330 29.77 886.10 2018
2,671.34 2 = 141002 (4.93) 24.31 2019
2,671.34 3 = 143673 (39.63) 1570.42 2020
2,671.34 4 = 146344 (25.02) 626.07 2021
2,671.34 5 = 149016 39.81 1585.07 2022
4691.96

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

4,691.96
5

938.39

30.63

AL VALUES PROJECT
b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year
- 1 = 0 - 0.00 2015
- 2 = 0 - 0.00 2016
- 3 = 0 - 0.00 2017
- 4 = 0 - 0.00 2018
- 5 = 0 - 0.00 2019
0.00

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

-
5
 -

0.00
 D. Statistical Parabolic:
PROJECTED VALUES
a + b x = Yc
135658.90 + 2,671.34 6 = 151,686.91
135658.90 + 2,671.34 7 = 154,358.25
135658.90 + 2,671.34 8 = 157,029.58
135658.90 + 2,671.34 9 = 159,700.92
135658.90 + 2,671.34 10 = 162,372.25

D. Statistical Parabolic:
PROJECTED VALUES
a + b x = Yc
0.00 + - 6 = 0
0.00 + - 7 = 0
0.00 + - 8 = 0
0.00 + - 9 = 0
0.00 + - 10 = 0
stical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) 160,873,915.21

a= = = 143637
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

∑XY 53,426.70
b= = = 1,335.67
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y) 4,967.39

c= = = 4.43517
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

stical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) -

a= = = 0
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

∑XY -
b= = = -
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y) -
c= = = 0
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00
 HISTO
Year Y X X² X4 XY
2018 138,360.00 -4 16 256 (553,440.01)
2019 140,996.64 -2 4 16 (281,993.28)
2020 143,633.28 0 0 0 -
2021 146,319.22 2 4 16 292,638.44
2022 149,055.39 4 16 256 596,221.56
718,364.53 40 544 53,426.70

HISTO
Year Y X X² X4 XY
2018 - -4 16 256 -
2019 - -2 4 16 -
2020 - 0 0 0 -
2021 - 2 4 16 -
2022 - 4 16 256 -
- 40 544 -
 HISTORICAL VALUES
X²Y a + b x + c x² =
2,213,760.05 143637.42 + 1,335.67 -4 + 4.44 16 =
563,986.56 143637.42 + 1,335.67 -2 + 4.44 4 =
- 143637.42 + 1,335.67 0 + 4.44 0 =
585,276.88 143637.42 + 1,335.67 2 + 4.44 4 =
2,384,886.22 143637.42 + 1,335.67 4 + 4.44 16 =
5,747,909.70

HISTORICAL VALUES
X²Y a + b x + c x² =
- 0.00 + - -4 + - 16 =
- 0.00 + - -2 + - 4 =
- 0.00 + - 0 + - 0 =
- 0.00 + - 2 + - 4 =
- 0.00 + - 4 + - 16 =
-
 PRO
Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a
138,365.72 (5.71) 32.6486 2018 143637.42
140,983.83 12.81 164.101 2019 143637.42
143,637.42 (4.15) 17.1986 2020 143637.42
146,326.50 (7.28) 53.0082 2021 143637.42
149,051.06 4.33 18.7621 2022 143637.42
285.718

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

285.72
5

57.14

7.56

Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a

- - 0 2015 0.00
- - 0 2016 0.00
- - 0 2017 0.00
- - 0 2018 0.00
- - 0 2019 0.00
0

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

-
5
 -

0.00
 PROJECTED VALUES
+ b x + c x² = Yc
+ 1,335.67 6 + 4.44 36 = 151,811.10
+ 1,335.67 8 + 4.44 64 = 154,606.62
+ 1,335.67 10 + 4.44 100 = 157,437.62
+ 1,335.67 12 + 4.44 144 = 160,304.10
+ 1,335.67 14 + 4.44 196 = 163,206.06

Methods
A. Arithmetic Straight Lin
B. Arithmetic Geometric
C. Statistical Straight Lin
D. Statistical Parabolic:

Note: The lowest standa

+ b x + c x² = Yc
+ - 6 + - 36 = -
+ - 8 + - 64 = -
+ - 10 + - 100 = -
+ - 12 + - 144 = -
+ - 14 + - 196 = -
 To be presented on your Projected Demand and Supply

Year Total Demand Year

2018 151,811 2018
2019 154,607 2019
2020 157,438 2020
2021 160,304 2021
2022 163,206 2022

Standard Deviation Methods

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 46.49 A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 3002.60 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve:
C. Statistical Straight Line: 30.63 C. Statistical Straight Line:
D. Statistical Parabolic: 7.56 D. Statistical Parabolic:

Note: The lowest standard devation will be the formula used in the projection
 Total Supply Market Gap Projected Demand and Supp
- 151,811 Year
- 154,607 2019
- 157,438 2020
- 160,304 2021
- 163,206 2022
2023

Standard Deviation
Arithmetic Straight Line: 0.00
Arithmetic Geometric Curve: #DIV/0!
Statistical Straight Line: 0.00
Statistical Parabolic: 0.00
Projected Demand and Supply
Total Demand Total Supply Market Gap
151811 0 151811
154607 0 154607
157438 0 157438
160304 0 160304
163206 0 163206
Population by age group (target
market)
Age Population %
20-24 9330 20%
25-29 8383 18%
30-34 7353 15%
35-39 6829 14%
40-44 6023 13%
45-49 5273 11%
50-54 4443 9%
Total 47634 100%
 DEMAND
Year Total Demand
2018 $ 626,292.0
2019 $ 607,644.2
2020 $ 589,551.6
2021 $ 571,997.7
2022 $ 554,966.4

Year # of Retailers Average # of Purchase per block Total Demand

2010 15 20,656.66 309,849.85
2011 15 20,865.31 312,979.65
2012 15 21,076.07 316,141.06
2013 15 21,288.96 319,334.40
2014 15 21,504.00 322,560.00

26,880.00
15,120.00
15,120.00
26,880.00
23,520.00
21,504.00

SUPPLY
Year Total Supply
2018 51840.00
2019 48885.12
2020 46098.67
2021 33810.81
2022 31883.60

Year # of Competitor Average # of Blocxks Sold (per y Total Supply

2010 5 52,448.54 262,242.71
2011 5 52,978.33 264,891.63
2012 5 53,513.46 267,567.30
2013 5 54,054.00 270,270.00
 2014 5 54,600.00 273,000.00

4320000
3636000 33,600.00
2203416 50,400.00
741600 67,200.00
756216 67,200.00
54,600.00

DEMAND
Responses (30%) Consumption per serving Frequency
2020 1933 27 12
28.995 2019 1904 27 12
28.5601 2018 1875 26 12
28.1317 2017 1847 26 12
27.7097 2016 1820 25 12

*** 1.5% increase in population in the locale based on the PSA data
*** ther are 6, 445 individual ages 25- above

SUPPLY
Number of Existing
competitors Servings Frequency
2020 9 480 12
2019 9 453 12
2018 9 427 12
2017 7 403 12
2016 7 380 12

**5.7% average increase of competitors

Methods Standard Deviation Methods

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 702.596037838038 A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 56543.2710046236 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve:
C. Statistical Straight Line: 450.856072058248 C. Statistical Straight Line:
D. Statistical Parabolic: 4.60648946969391 D. Statistical Parabolic:
A. Arithmetic Straight Line: Yc = a + Yi - 1
where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc (71,325.58)
s = =
N-1 4

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: Yc = a + Yi - 1

where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc (19,956.40)
a= = =
N-1 4
 30 79
% 0.03846153846 0.101282
Total Demand Products QD Year Fried itik adobong ba
626292 626292 2020 24088.1538462 63432.14
607644 0.405 607644 2019 23370.9290654 61543.45
589552 0.39893 589552 2018 22675.0596525 59711
571998 0.39294 571998 2017 21999.9097513 57933.1
554966 0.38705 554966 2016 21344.8624385 56208.14

0 30
0 0.0625
Totl Supply Qs Year Fried itik adobong ba
51840 51840 2020 0 3240
48885 27.36 48885 2019 0 3055.32
46099 25.8005 46099 2018 0 2881.167
33811 24.3299 33811 2017 0 2113.176
31884 22.9431 31884 2016 0 1992.725

Standard Deviation
hmetic Straight Line: 2508.56
hmetic Geometric Curve: 14118
istical Straight Line: 2315.49
tistical Parabolic: 2137.62
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y a +
2018 626,292.00 - +
2019 607,644.16 (17,831.39) +
(17,831.39)
2020 589,551.55 (17,831.39) +
2021 571,997.65 (17,831.39) +
2022 554,966.42 (17,831.39) +

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y a +
2018 51,840.00 - +
2019 48,885.12 (4,989.10) +
(4,989.10)
2020 46,098.67 (4,989.10) +
2021 33,810.81 (4,989.10) +
2022 31,883.60 (4,989.10) +
 510 35 10 25 62 29
0.65384615 0.04487 0.01282 0.03205128205 0.07948718 0.03717948718
adobo lechon bebitin buttered fried fried n sauce
409498.615 28102.8 8029.38 20073.4615385 49782.1846 23285.2153846
397305.794 27266.1 7790.31 19475.7742212 48299.9201 22591.8980965
385476.014 26454.2 7558.35 18895.8830437 46861.7899 21919.2243307
373998.466 25666.6 7333.3 18333.2581261 45466.4802 21266.5794263
362862.661 24902.3 7115 17787.3853654 44112.7157 20633.3670239

450 0 0 0 0 0
0.9375 0 0 0 0 0
adobo lechon bebitin buttered fried fried n sauce
48600 0 0 0 0 0
45829.8 0 0 0 0 0
43217.5014 0 0 0 0 0
31697.6363 0 0 0 0 0
29890.871 0 0 0 0 0
HISTORICAL VALUES
Yi - 1 = Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)²
- 0 -
626,292.00 = 608,460.61 (816.45) 666,590.85
608,460.61 = 590,629.21 (1,077.66) 1,161,352.66
590,629.21 = 572,797.82 (800.16) 640,262.45
572,797.82 = 554,966.42 - -
2,468,205.96

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

2,468,205.96
5

493,641.19

702.60

HISTORICAL VALUES
Yi - 1 = Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)²
- 0 -
51,840.00 = 46,850.90 2,034.22 4,138,055.31
46,850.90 = 41,861.80 4,236.87 17,951,069.72
41,861.80 = 36,872.70 (3,061.88) 9,375,138.34
36,872.70 = 31,883.60 - -
31,464,263.38

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N
 31,464,263.38
5

6,292,852.68

2508.56

780
1
total
626292
607644.1557
589551.550964033
571997.653534079
554966.423400101

480
1
total
51840
48885.12
46098.66816
33810.81205824
31883.5957709203
 B. Arithmetic Geometric

PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2018 (17,831.39) + 554,966.42 = 537,135.03
2019 (17,831.39) + 537,135.03 = 519,303.64
2020 (17,831.39) + 519,303.64 = 501,472.24
2021 (17,831.39) + 501,472.24 = 483,640.85
2022 (17,831.39) + 483,640.85 = 465,809.45

B. Arithmetic Geometric

PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2015 (4,989.10) + 31,883.60 = 26,894.49
2016 (4,989.10) + 26,894.49 = 21,905.39
2017 (4,989.10) + 21,905.39 = 16,916.29
2018 (4,989.10) + 16,916.29 = 11,927.19
2019 (4,989.10) + 11,927.19 = 6,938.09
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1
Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
r = Average rate of Increase
Year Y
∑% increase -11.91 2018 626292.00
r= =
N-1 4 0.01 2019 607644.16
2020 589551.55
2021 571997.65
2022 554966.42

B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1

Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
r = Average rate of Increase
Year Y
∑% increase -43.756 2018 51840.00
r= =
N-1 4 0.01 2019 48885.12
2020 46098.67
2021 33810.81
2022 31883.60
 % of HISTORICAL VALUES
Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc Y - Yc
(Decrease)
- 538,644.94 ÷ 1.01 = 533,311.82 92,980.18
-2.9775 544,031.39 ÷ 1.01 = 538,644.94 68,999.21
-2.9775 549,471.71 ÷ 1.01 = 544,031.39 45,520.16
-2.9775 554,966.42 ÷ 1.01 = 549,471.71 22,525.95
-2.9775
-11.91

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

###
5

###

56543.27

% of HISTORICAL VALUES
Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc Y - Yc
(Decrease)
- 30,945.90 ÷ 1.01 = 30,639.51 21,200.49
-5.7 31,255.36 ÷ 1.01 = 30,945.90 17,939.22
-5.7 31,567.92 ÷ 1.01 = 31,255.36 14,843.31
-26.65555556 31,883.60 ÷ 1.01 = 31,567.92 2,242.90
-5.7
-43.75555556

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N
 ###
5

###

14118.29
 PROJECTED VALUES
(Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x (1 + r) = Yc
8645312992.23 2018 554,966.42 x 1.01 = 560,516.09
4760891355.6 2019 560,516.09 x 1.01 = 566,121.25
2072084834.55 2020 566,121.25 x 1.01 = 571,782.46
507418297.138 2021 571,782.46 x 1.01 = 577,500.29
2022 577,500.29 x 1.01 = 583,275.29
###

528313.6559
533596.792465 533596.7925
538932.7604
544322.088
549765.3089

PROJECTED VALUES
(Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x (1 + r) = Yc
449460825.116 2015 31,883.60 x 1.01 = 32,202.43
321815473 2016 32,202.43 x 1.01 = 32,524.46
220323708.811 2017 32,524.46 x 1.01 = 32,849.70
5030580.01474 2018 32,849.70 x 1.01 = 33,178.20
2019 33,178.20 x 1.01 = 33,509.98
###
C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y ∑X 2,950,451.78
a= - b = - ###
n n 5
n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y (891,488.28)
b= = = (17,829.77)
n∑X² - ( ∑X )² 50

C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y ∑X 212,518.20
a= - b = - (5,498.71)
n n 5
n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y (274,935.58)
b= = = (5,498.71)
n∑X² - ( ∑X )² 50
 HIS
15 Year Y X X²
= 590,090.36 - -53489 643,579.65
5 2018 626,292.00 1 1
2019 607,644.16 2 4
2020 589,551.55 3 9
2021 571,997.65 4 16
2022 554,966.42 5 25
2,950,451.78 15 55

HIS
15 Year Y X X²
= 42,503.64 - -16496 58,999.77
5 2018 51,840.00 1 1
2019 48,885.12 2 4
2020 46,098.67 3 9
2021 33,810.81 4 16
2022 31,883.60 5 25
212,518.20 15 55
 HISTORICAL VALUES
XY a + b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
626,292.00 643579.65 + ### 1 = 625750 542.11 ###
1,215,288.31 643579.65 + ### 2 = 607920 ### ###
1,768,654.65 643579.65 + ### 3 = 590090 ### ###
2,287,990.61 643579.65 + ### 4 = 572261 ### ###
2,774,832.12 643579.65 + ### 5 = 554431 535.60 ###
8,673,057.70 ###

Standard Deviation:

HISTORICAL VALUES
XY a + b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
51,840.00 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 1 = 53501.06 ### ###
97,770.24 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 2 = 48002.35 882.77 ###
138,296.00 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 3 = 42503.64 ### ###
135,243.25 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 4 = 37004.93 ### ###
159,417.98 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 5 = 31506.22 377.38 ###
582,567.47 ###

Standard Deviation:
 PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + b x = Yc
2018 643579.65 + ### 6 = 536,601.06
2019 643579.65 + ### 7 = 518,771.29
2020 643579.65 + ### 8 = 500,941.53
2021 643579.65 + ### 9 = 483,111.76
2022 643579.65 + ### 10 = 465,282.00

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

1,016,355.99
5

203,271.20

450.86

PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + b x = Yc
2015 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 6 = 26007.504278
2016 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 7 = 20508.792638
2017 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 8 = 15010.080998
2018 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 9 = 9511.3693579
2019 58999.77 + (5,498.71) 10 = 4012.6577179

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

26,807,432.57
 5

5,361,486.51

2315.49
D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y)

a= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²

∑XY ###
b= = =
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y)
c= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²

D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y)

a= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²

∑XY ###
b= = =
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y)
c= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²
660,297,689.82 Year Y X X²
= 589552
1,120.00 2018 626,292.00 -4 16
2019 607,644.16 -2 4
2020 589,551.55 0 0
(8,914.88)
2021 571,997.65 2 4
2022 554,966.42 4 16
75,438.71 2,950,451.78 40
= 67.356
1,120.00

48,795,448.20 Year Y X X²
= 43567
1,120.00 2018 51,840.00 -4 16
2019 48,885.12 -2 4
2020 46,098.67 0 0
(2,749.36)
2021 33,810.81 2 4
2022 31,883.60 4 16
(148,921.54) 212,518.20 40
= -132.97
1,120.00
 HISTORICAL VALUES
X4 XY X²Y a + b x + c
256 (2,505,168.00) 10,020,672.00 589551.51 + (8,914.88) -4 + 67.36
16 (1,215,288.31) 2,430,576.62 589551.51 + (8,914.88) -2 + 67.36
0 - - 589551.51 + (8,914.88) 0 + 67.36
16 1,143,995.31 2,287,990.61 589551.51 + (8,914.88) 2 + 67.36
256 2,219,865.69 8,879,462.77 589551.51 + (8,914.88) 4 + 67.36
544 (356,595.31) 23,618,702.01

HISTORICAL VALUES
X4 XY X²Y a + b x + c
256 (207,360.00) 829,440.00 43567.36 + (2,749.36) -4 + (132.97)
16 (97,770.24) 195,540.48 43567.36 + (2,749.36) -2 + (132.97)
0 - - 43567.36 + (2,749.36) 0 + (132.97)
16 67,621.62 135,243.25 43567.36 + (2,749.36) 2 + (132.97)
256 127,534.38 510,137.53 43567.36 + (2,749.36) 4 + (132.97)
544 (109,974.23) 1,670,361.26
x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year
16 = 626,288.74 3.26 10.6554 2018
4 = 607,650.70 (6.54) 42.8054 2019
0 = 589,551.51 0.04 0.00178 2020
4 = 571,991.17 6.49 42.0724 2021
16 = 554,969.67 (3.25) 10.5638 2022
106.099

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

106.10
5

21.22

4.61

x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year

16 = 52,437.34 ### 356812 2015
4 = 48,534.21 350.91 123135 2016
0 = 43,567.36 ### 6E+06 2017
4 = 37,536.79 ### 1E+07 2018
16 = 30,442.49 ### 2E+06 2019
2E+07

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

22,847,142.55
5
 4,569,428.51

2137.62
 PROJECTED VALUES
a + b x + c x² = Yc
589551.51 + (8,914.88) 6 + 67.36 36 = 538,487.03
589551.51 + (8,914.88) 8 + 67.36 64 = 522,543.23
589551.51 + (8,914.88) 10 + 67.36 100 = 507,138.28
589551.51 + (8,914.88) 12 + 67.36 144 = 492,272.18
589551.51 + (8,914.88) 14 + 67.36 196 = 477,944.92

a + b x + c x² = Yc
43567.36 + (2,749.36) 6 + (132.97) 36 = 22,284.47
43567.36 + (2,749.36) 8 + (132.97) 64 = 13,062.72
43567.36 + (2,749.36) 10 + (132.97) 100 = 2,777.24
43567.36 + (2,749.36) 12 + (132.97) 144 = (8,571.96)
43567.36 + (2,749.36) 14 + (132.97) 196 = (20,984.89)
 To be presented on your Projected Demand and Supply

Year Total Demand Year

2018 538,487 2018
2019 522,543 2019
2020 507,138 2020
2021 492,272 2021
2022 477,945 2022

Methods Standard Deviation Methods

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 702.60 A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 56543.27 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curv
C. Statistical Straight Line: 450.86 C. Statistical Straight Line:
D. Statistical Parabolic: 4.61 D. Statistical Parabolic:

Note: The lowest standard devation will be the formula used in the projection
 Total Supply Market Gap Projected Demand and Supply, a
22,284 516,203 Year
13,063 509,481 2025
2,777 504,361 2024
(8,572) 500,844 2023
(20,985) 498,930 2022
2021

Standard Deviation
Arithmetic Straight Line: 2508.56
Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 14118.29
Statistical Straight Line: 2315.49
Statistical Parabolic: 2137.62
Projected Demand and Supply, and Market Gap
Total Demand Total Supply Market Gap
538487 22284 516203
522543 13063 509481
507138 2777 504361
492272 -8572 500844
477945 -20985 498930
 DEMAND
Year Total Demand
2018 $ 240,840.0
2019 $ 234,096.0
2020 $ 227,540.8
2021 $ 221,169.2
2022 $ 214,976.1

Year # of Retailers Average # of Purchase per block Total Demand

2010 15 20,656.66 309,849.85
2011 15 20,865.31 312,979.65
2012 15 21,076.07 316,141.06
2013 15 21,288.96 319,334.40
2014 15 21,504.00 322,560.00

26,880.00
15,120.00
15,120.00
26,880.00
23,520.00
21,504.00

SUPPLY
Year Total Supply
2018 2700.00
2019 2610.09
2020 2523.17
2021 2439.15
2022 1571.95

Year # of Competitor Average # of Blocxks Sold (per y Total Supply

2010 5 52,448.54 262,242.71
2011 5 52,978.33 264,891.63
2012 5 53,513.46 267,567.30
2013 5 54,054.00 270,270.00
 2014 5 54,600.00 273,000.00

4320000
3636000 33,600.00
2203416 50,400.00
741600 67,200.00
756216 67,200.00
54,600.00

DEMAND
Responses (30%) Consumption per serving Frequency
2020 1115 18 12
14.718 2019 1100 18 12
14.5237 2018 1086 17 12
14.332 2017 1071 17 12
14.1428 2016 1057 17 12

*** 1.32% increase in household population in the locale based on the PSA data
*** ther are 1,115 households within the locale (2020)

SUPPLY
Number of Existing
competitors Servings Frequency
2020 3 75 12
2019 3 73 12
2018 3 70 12
2017 3 68 12
2016 2 65 12

**3.33% average increase of competitors

Projected Demand and Supply, and Market Gap

Year Total Demand Total Supply Market Gap
2026 208971 865 208106
2025 203148 -154 203301
2024 197509 -1394 198902
2023 192053 -2856 194909
2022 186781 -4539 191320
Methods Standard Deviation Methods
A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 239.392139009315 A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 20842.4589680615 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curv
C. Statistical Straight Line: 153.617684243761 C. Statistical Straight Line:
D. Statistical Parabolic: 1.47476728543163 D. Statistical Parabolic:
A. Arithmetic Straight Line: Yc = a + Yi - 1
where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc (25,863.94)
s =
N-1 4

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: Yc = a + Yi - 1

where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc (1,128.05)
a= =
N-1 4
 4
% 0.222222222222
Total Demand Products QD Year Repair/ trimming
240840 240840 2020 53520
234096 0.27 234096 2019 52021.33296
227541 0.26595 227541 2018 50564.63159445
221169 0.26196 221169 2017 49148.72078055
214976 0.25803 214976 2016 47772.45830125

15
0.2
Total Supply Qs Year Repair/ trimming
2700 2700 2020 540
2610 2.4975 2610 2019 522.018
2523 2.41433 2523 2018 504.6348006
2439 2.33394 2439 2017 487.83046174
1572 2.25622 1572 2016 314.3904715761
 Standard Deviation
hmetic Straight Line: 325.352
hmetic Geometric Curve: 931.071
istical Straight Line: 220.278
tistical Parabolic: 118.854
 H
Year Y a
2018 240,840.00 -
2019 234,096.00 (6,465.98)
= (6,465.98)
2020 227,540.84 (6,465.98)
2021 221,169.24 (6,465.98)
2022 214,976.06 (6,465.98)

H
Year Y a
2018 2,700.00 -
2019 2,610.09 (282.01)
= (282.01)
2020 2,523.17 (282.01)
2021 2,439.15 (282.01)
2022 1,571.95 (282.01)
 3 6 3 2 0 0
0.166667 0.3333333333 0.16666666667 0.11111111111111 0 0
Sewing Sewing pants sewing uniform sewing customize
40140 80280 40140 26760 0 0
39016 78031.99944 39015.99972 26010.66648 0 0
37923.47 75846.947392 37923.4736958 25282.315797227 0 0
36861.54 73723.081171 36861.5405854 24574.3603902731 0 0
35829.34 71658.687452 35829.3437259 23886.2291506247 0 0

10 30 10 10 0 0
0.133333 0.4 0.13333333333 0.13333333333333 0 0
Sewing Sewing pants sewing uniform sewing customize
360 1080 360 360 0 0
348.012 1044.036 348.012 348.012 0 0
336.4232 1009.2696012 336.4232004 336.4232004 0 0
325.2203 975.66092348 325.220307827 325.22030782668 0 0
209.5936 628.78094315 209.593647717 209.593647717368 0 0
 HISTORICAL VALUES
+ Yi - 1 = Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)²
+ - 0 -
+ 240,840.00 = 234,374.02 (278.02) 77,293.60
+ 234,374.02 = 227,908.03 (367.19) 134,827.76
+ 227,908.03 = 221,442.05 (272.80) 74,421.62
+ 221,442.05 = 214,976.06 - -
286,542.98

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

286,542.98
5

57,308.60

239.39

HISTORICAL VALUES
+ Yi - 1 = Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)²
+ - 0 -
+ 2,700.00 = 2,417.99 192.10 36,903.14
+ 2,417.99 = 2,135.98 387.20 149,922.15
+ 2,135.98 = 1,853.96 585.19 342,445.04
+ 1,853.96 = 1,571.95 - -
529,270.34

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N
 529,270.34
5

105,854.07

325.35

0 18
0 1
total
0 240840
0 234095.99832
0 227540.842175043
0 221169.243512458
0 214976.062355622

0 75
0 1
total
0 2700
0 2610.09
0 2523.174003
0 2439.1523087001
0 1571.95235788026
 PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2018 (6,465.98) + 214,976.06 = 208,510.08
2019 (6,465.98) + 208,510.08 = 202,044.09
2020 (6,465.98) + 202,044.09 = 195,578.11
2021 (6,465.98) + 195,578.11 = 189,112.12
2022 (6,465.98) + 189,112.12 = 182,646.14

PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2015 (282.01) + 1,571.95 = 1,289.94
2016 (282.01) + 1,289.94 = 1,007.93
2017 (282.01) + 1,007.93 = 725.92
2018 (282.01) + 725.92 = 443.90
2019 (282.01) + 443.90 = 161.89
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1
Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
r = Average rate of Increase
Year Y
∑% increase -11.201 2018 240840.00
r= =
N-1 4 0.01 2019 234096.00
2020 227540.84
2021 221169.24
2022 214976.06

B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1

Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
r = Average rate of Increase
Year Y
∑% increase -45.543 2018 2700.00
r= =
N-1 4 0.01 2019 2610.09
2020 2523.17
2021 2439.15
2022 1571.95
 % of HISTORICAL VALUES
Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc Y - Yc
(Decrease)
- 208,653.65 ÷ 1.01 = 206,587.77 34,252.23
-2.8002 210,740.18 ÷ 1.01 = 208,653.65 25,442.35
-2.8002 212,847.59 ÷ 1.01 = 210,740.18 16,800.66
-2.8002 214,976.06 ÷ 1.01 = 212,847.59 8,321.66
-2.8002
-11.2008

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

###
5

###

20842.46

% of HISTORICAL VALUES
Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc Y - Yc
(Decrease)
- 1,525.72 ÷ 1.01 = 1,510.62 1,189.38
-3.33 1,540.98 ÷ 1.01 = 1,525.72 1,084.37
-3.33 1,556.39 ÷ 1.01 = 1,540.98 982.20
-3.33 1,571.95 ÷ 1.01 = 1,556.39 882.76
-35.55333333
-45.54333333

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N
4,334,470.66
5

866,894.13

931.07
 PROJECTED VALUES
(Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x (1 + r) = Yc
1173215228.59 2018 214,976.06 x 1.01 = 217,125.82
647313181.529 2019 217,125.82 x 1.01 = 219,297.08
282262093.466 2020 219,297.08 x 1.01 = 221,490.05
69249975.5875 2021 221,490.05 x 1.01 = 223,704.95
2022 223,704.95 x 1.01 = 225,942.00
###

215538.1511
217693.532609 217693.5326
219870.4679
222069.1726
224289.8643

PROJECTED VALUES
(Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x (1 + r) = Yc
1414635.92086 2015 1,571.95 x 1.01 = 1,587.67
1175855.10545 2016 1,587.67 x 1.01 = 1,603.55
964707.640175 2017 1,603.55 x 1.01 = 1,619.58
779271.989357 2018 1,619.58 x 1.01 = 1,635.78
2019 1,635.78 x 1.01 = 1,652.14
4,334,470.66
C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y ∑X 1,138,622.15
a= - b = - (6,465.46)
n n 5
n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y (323,273.15)
b= = = (6,465.46)
n∑X² - ( ∑X )² 50

C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y ∑X 11,844.37
a= - b = - (242.70)
n n 5
n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y (12,135.16)
b= = = (242.70)
n∑X² - ( ∑X )² 50
 HIS
15 Year Y X X²
= 227,724.43 - -19396 247,120.82
5 2018 240,840.00 1 1
2019 234,096.00 2 4
2020 227,540.84 3 9
2021 221,169.24 4 16
2022 214,976.06 5 25
1,138,622.15 15 55

HIS
15 Year Y X X²
= 2,368.87 - -728.11 3,096.98
5 2018 2,700.00 1 1
2019 2,610.09 2 4
2020 2,523.17 3 9
2021 2,439.15 4 16
2022 1,571.95 5 25
11,844.37 15 55
 HISTORICAL VALUES
XY a + b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
240,840.00 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 1 = 240655 184.64 ###
468,192.00 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 2 = 234190 (93.89) 8816.08
682,622.53 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 3 = 227724 ### ###
884,676.97 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 4 = 221259 (89.72) 8050.17
1,074,880.31 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 5 = 214794 182.56 ###
3,351,211.81 ###

Standard Deviation:

HISTORICAL VALUES
XY a + b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
2,700.00 3096.98 + (242.70) 1 = 2854.28 ### ###
5,220.18 3096.98 + (242.70) 2 = 2611.577 (1.49) 2.21
7,569.52 3096.98 + (242.70) 3 = 2368.874 154.30 ###
9,756.61 3096.98 + (242.70) 4 = 2126.17 312.98 ###
7,859.76 3096.98 + (242.70) 5 = 1883.467 ### ###
33,106.07 ###

Standard Deviation:
 PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + b x = Yc
2018 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 6 = 208,328.04
2019 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 7 = 201,862.58
2020 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 8 = 195,397.11
2021 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 9 = 188,931.65
2022 247120.82 + (6,465.46) 10 = 182,466.19

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

117,991.96
5

23,598.39

153.62

PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + b x = Yc
2015 3096.98 + (242.70) 6 = 1640.7638413
2016 3096.98 + (242.70) 7 = 1398.0605437
2017 3096.98 + (242.70) 8 = 1155.3572461
2018 3096.98 + (242.70) 9 = 912.65394859
2019 3096.98 + (242.70) 10 = 669.95065104

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

242,612.32
 5

48,522.46

220.28
D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y)

a= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²

∑XY ###
b= = =
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y)
c= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²

D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y)

a= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²

∑XY (4,854.07)
b= = =
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y)
c= =
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²
254,845,729.02 Year Y X X²
= 227541
1,120.00 2018 240,840.00 -4 16
2019 234,096.00 -2 4
2020 227,540.84 0 0
(3,232.73)
2021 221,169.24 2 4
2022 214,976.06 4 16
25,703.97 1,138,622.15 40
= 22.95
1,120.00

2,901,408.28 Year Y X X²
= 2590.54
1,120.00 2018 2,700.00 -4 16
2019 2,610.09 -2 4
2020 2,523.17 0 0
(121.35)
2021 2,439.15 2 4
2022 1,571.95 4 16
(31,033.71) 11,844.37 40
= -27.709
1,120.00
 HISTORICAL VALUES
X4 XY X²Y a + b x + c
256 (963,360.00) 3,853,440.00 227540.83 + (3,232.73) -4 + 22.95
16 (468,192.00) 936,383.99 227540.83 + (3,232.73) -2 + 22.95
0 - - 227540.83 + (3,232.73) 0 + 22.95
16 442,338.49 884,676.97 227540.83 + (3,232.73) 2 + 22.95
256 859,904.25 3,439,617.00 227540.83 + (3,232.73) 4 + 22.95
544 (129,309.26) 9,114,117.97

HISTORICAL VALUES
X4 XY X²Y a + b x + c
256 (10,800.00) 43,200.00 2590.54 + (121.35) -4 + (27.71)
16 (5,220.18) 10,440.36 2590.54 + (121.35) -2 + (27.71)
0 - - 2590.54 + (121.35) 0 + (27.71)
16 4,878.30 9,756.61 2590.54 + (121.35) 2 + (27.71)
256 6,287.81 25,151.24 2590.54 + (121.35) 4 + (27.71)
544 (4,854.07) 88,548.21
x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year
16 = 240,838.96 1.04 1.09185 2018
4 = 234,098.09 (2.09) 4.38512 2019
0 = 227,540.83 0.01 0.00016 2020
4 = 221,167.17 2.08 4.31453 2021
16 = 214,977.10 (1.04) 1.08303 2022
10.8747

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

10.87
5

2.17

1.47

x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year

16 = 2,632.61 67.39 4541.28 2015
4 = 2,722.41 ### 12616 2016
0 = 2,590.54 (67.37) 4538.6 2017
4 = 2,237.01 202.15 40863 2018
16 = 1,661.80 (89.85) 8072.2 2019
70632

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

70,631.73
5
 14,126.35

118.85
 PROJECTED VALUES
a + b x + c x² = Yc
227540.83 + (3,232.73) 6 + 22.95 36 = 208,970.64
227540.83 + (3,232.73) 8 + 22.95 64 = 203,147.78
227540.83 + (3,232.73) 10 + 22.95 100 = 197,508.51
227540.83 + (3,232.73) 12 + 22.95 144 = 192,052.85
227540.83 + (3,232.73) 14 + 22.95 196 = 186,780.78

a + b x + c x² = Yc
2590.54 + (121.35) 6 + (27.71) 36 = 864.92
2590.54 + (121.35) 8 + (27.71) 64 = (153.63)
2590.54 + (121.35) 10 + (27.71) 100 = (1,393.84)
2590.54 + (121.35) 12 + (27.71) 144 = (2,855.73)
2590.54 + (121.35) 14 + (27.71) 196 = (4,539.28)
 To be presented on your Projected Demand and Supply

Year Total Demand Year

2018 208,971 2018
2019 203,148 2019
2020 197,509 2020
2021 192,053 2021
2022 186,781 2022

Methods Standard Deviation Methods

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 239.39 A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 20842.46 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curv
C. Statistical Straight Line: 153.62 C. Statistical Straight Line:
D. Statistical Parabolic: 1.47 D. Statistical Parabolic:

Note: The lowest standard devation will be the formula used in the projection
 Total Supply Market Gap Projected Demand and Supply
865 208,106 Year
(154) 203,301 2019
(1,394) 198,902 2020
(2,856) 194,909 2021
(4,539) 191,320 2022
2023

Standard Deviation
Arithmetic Straight Line: 325.35
Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 931.07
Statistical Straight Line: 220.28
Statistical Parabolic: 118.85
Projected Demand and Supply
Total Demand Total Supply Market Gap
208971 865 208106
203148 -154 203301
197509 -1394 198902
192053 -2856 194909
186781 -4539 191320
 DEMAND
Year Total Demand
2018 $ 6,952,248.0
2019 $ 6,758,940.7
2020 $ 6,571,008.4
2021 $ 6,388,301.5
2022 $ 6,210,674.8

Year # of Retailers Average # of Purchase per block

2010 15 20,656.66
2011 15 20,865.31
2012 15 21,076.07
2013 15 21,288.96
2014 15 21,504.00

26,880.00
15,120.00
15,120.00
26,880.00
23,520.00
21,504.00

SUPPLY
Year Total Supply
2018 203952.00
2019 190197.62
2020 183940.12
2021 177888.49
2022 152920.85

Year # of Competitor Average # of Blocxks Sold (per y

2010 5 52,448.54
2011 5 52,978.33
2012 5 53,513.46
2013 5 54,054.00
 2014 5 54,600.00

4320000
3636000 33,600.00
2203416 50,400.00
741600 67,200.00
756216 67,200.00
54,600.00

DEMAND
Responses (57%) Consumption /per serving
2020 2598 223
33.774 2019 2564 220
33.3349 2018 2531 216
32.9016 2017 2498 213
32.4739 2016 2466 210

*** 1.13% increase in population in the locale based on the PSA data
*** ther are 4, 557 individual ages 21- above

SUPPLY
Number of Existing
competitors Servings
2020 28 607
2019 27 587
2018 27 568
2017 27 549
2016 24 531

**3.29% average increase of competitors

Projected Demand and Supply, and Market Gap

Year Total Demand Total Supply
2025 6038392 136358
2024 5871307 113811
2023 5709448 88089
2022 5552816 59193
2021 5401411 27122
Methods Standard Deviation
A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 6814.91775905571
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 598750.809079359
C. Statistical Straight Line: 4373.12460136096
D. Statistical Parabolic: 41.6835761505466
 A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc
s =
N-1
Total Demand
309,849.85
312,979.65
316,141.06
319,334.40
322,560.00

A. Arithmetic Straight Line:

where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc
a= =
N-1

Total Supply
262,242.71
264,891.63
267,567.30
270,270.00
 273,000.00

%
Frequency Total Demand ProductQD Year
12 6952248 6952248 2020
12 6758941 3.345 6758941 2019
12 6571008 3.29483 6571008 2018
12 6388302 3.2454 6388302 2017
12 6210675 3.19672 6210675 2016

Frequency Totl Supply QD Year

12 203952 203952 2020
12 190198 19.9703 190198 2019
12 183940 19.3133 183940 2018
12 177888 18.6779 177888 2017
12 152921 18.0634 152921 2016

Market Gap
5902034
5757496
5621360
5493624
5374289
Methods Standard Deviation
A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 6006.07
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 37023
C. Statistical Straight Line: 4626.7
D. Statistical Parabolic: 3788.5
 Yc = a + Yi - 1
ue (1st Year)
ue (Last Year)

he year Past Year Y a

2018 6,952,248.00 -
(741,573.21) 2019 6,758,940.74 ###
= ###
4 2020 6,571,008.40 ###
2021 6,388,301.51 ###
2022 6,210,674.79 ###

Yc = a + Yi - 1
ue (1st Year)
ue (Last Year)

he year Past Year Y a

2018 203,952.00 -
(51,031.15) 2019 190,197.62 (12,757.79)
= (12,757.79)
4 2020 183,940.12 (12,757.79)
2021 177,888.49 (12,757.79)
2022 152,920.85 (12,757.79)
 30 15 15 10 10 30 5
0.13452914798 0.0672646 0.06726457 0.04484 0.04484 0.13452914798 0.02242152
pastil panyalam tinadtag tinumis sindol bibingka wadgit
935280 467640 467640 311760 311760 935280 155880
909274.5396 454637.27 454637.27 303092 303092 909274.5396 151545.757
883992.161026 441996.08 441996.081 294664 294664 883992.161026 147332.027
859412.758989 429706.38 429706.379 286471 286471 859412.758989 143235.46
835516.787225 417758.39 417758.394 278506 278506 835516.787225 139252.798

64 60 55 60 60 55 40
0.10543657331 0.0988468 0.09060956 0.09885 0.09885 0.09060955519 0.06589786
pastil panyalam tinadtag tinumis sindol bibingka wadgit
21504 20160 18480 20160 20160 18480 13440
20053.7856 18800.424 17233.722 18800.4 18800 17233.722 12533.616
19394.0160538 18181.89 16666.7325 18181.9 18182 16666.7325462 12121.26
18755.9529256 17583.706 16118.397 17583.7 17584 16118.3970454 11722.4706
16123.4507327 15115.735 13856.0905 15115.7 15116 13856.0904735 10077.1567
 HISTORICAL VALUES
+ Yi - 1 = Yc
+ -
+ 6,952,248.00 = 6,766,854.70
+ 6,766,854.70 = 6,581,461.39
+ 6,581,461.39 = 6,396,068.09
+ 6,396,068.09 = 6,210,674.79

Standard Deviation:

HISTORICAL VALUES
+ Yi - 1 = Yc
+ -
+ 203,952.00 = 191,194.21
+ 191,194.21 = 178,436.43
+ 178,436.43 = 165,678.64
+ 165,678.64 = 152,920.85

Standard Deviation:
 15 8 35 50 223
0.06726457399 0.035874439461883 0.15695067 0.22421524664 1
kumukunsi betengan dudol tinapayan total
467640 249408 1091160 1558800 6952248
454637.2698 242473.21056 1060820.3 1515457.566 6758941
441996.080513 235731.242940379 1031324.19 1515457.566 6613146
429706.379495 229176.735730422 1002648.22 1432354.59832 6388302
417758.393613 222804.476593438 974769.585 1392527.97871 6210675

40 45 63 65 607
0.06589785832 0.074135090609555 0.10378913 0.10708401977 1
kumukunsi betengan dudol tinapayan total
13440 15120 21168 21840 203952
12533.616 14100.318 19740.4452 20367.126 190197.62
12121.2600336 13636.4175378 19090.9846 20367.126 184610.2
11722.4705785 13187.7794008064 18462.8912 19049.0146901 177888.49
10077.156708 11336.8012964621 15871.5218 16375.3796504 152920.85
 PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 =
0 - 2018 ### + 6,210,674.79 =
(7,913.95) 62,630,634.68 2019 ### + 6,025,281.48 =
(10,453.00) ### 2020 ### + 5,839,888.18 =
(7,766.58) 60,319,769.49 2021 ### + 5,654,494.87 =
- - 2022 ### + 5,469,101.57 =
###

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

###
5

46,443,104.06

6814.92

PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 =
0 - 2015 (12,757.79) + 152,920.85 =
(996.59) 993,192.55 2016 (12,757.79) + 140,163.07 =
5,503.69 30,290,653.02 2017 (12,757.79) + 127,405.28 =
12,209.85 ### 2018 (12,757.79) + 114,647.49 =
- - 2019 (12,757.79) + 101,889.71 =
###

∑(Y - Yc)²
N
 ###
5

36,072,862.60

6006.07
 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1
Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
LUES r = Average rate of Increase
Yc
6,025,281.48 ∑% increase -11.122
r= =
5,839,888.18 N-1 4 0.01
5,654,494.87
5,469,101.57
5,283,708.27

B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1

Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
LUES r = Average rate of Increase
Yc
140,163.07 ∑% increase -27.359
r= =
127,405.28 N-1 4 0.01
114,647.49
101,889.71
89,131.92
 % of HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) =
2018 6952248.00 (Decrease)
- 6,028,019.76 ÷ 1.01 =
2019 6758940.74 -2.7805 6,088,299.96 ÷ 1.01 =
2020 6571008.40 -2.7805 6,149,182.96 ÷ 1.01 =
2021 6388301.51 -2.7805 6,210,674.79 ÷ 1.01 =
2022 6210674.79 -2.7805
-11.122

Standard Deviation:

% of HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) =
2018 203952.00 (Decrease)
- 148,423.47 ÷ 1.01 =
2019 190197.62 -6.743928571 149,907.71 ÷ 1.01 =
2020 183940.12 -3.29 151,406.79 ÷ 1.01 =
2021 177888.49 -3.29 152,920.85 ÷ 1.01 =
2022 152920.85 -14.03555556
-27.35948413

Standard Deviation:
AL VALUES PROJECTED VALUES
Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x
5,968,336.39 983,911.61 968082047633 2018 6,210,674.79 x
6,028,019.76 730,920.99 534245487798 2019 6,272,781.53 x
6,088,299.96 482,708.44 233007439047 2020 6,335,509.35 x
6,149,182.96 239,118.55 57177682388 2021 6,398,864.44 x
2022 6,462,853.09 x
###

andard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N 6179514.78603

###
5

###

598750.81

AL VALUES PROJECTED VALUES

Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x
146,953.93 56,998.07 3248779523.61 2015 152,920.85 x
148,423.47 41,774.15 1745079560 2016 154,450.06 x
149,907.71 34,032.41 1158205127.76 2017 155,994.56 x
151,406.79 26,481.71 701280744.047 2018 157,554.51 x
2019 159,130.05 x
###

andard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N
 ###
5

###

37022.55
 C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
OJECTED VALUES n
(1 + r) = Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
1.01 = ### n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
1.01 = ###
1.01 = ###
1.01 = ###
1.01 = ###

6118331.471
6179514.786
6241309.934
6303723.033
6366760.264

C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
OJECTED VALUES n
(1 + r) = Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
1.01 = 154,450.06 n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
1.01 = 155,994.56
1.01 = 157,554.51
1.01 = 159,130.05
1.01 = 160,721.35
Yc = a + bx

∑X 32,881,173.43 15
= - ### = ### - -556136
n 5 5
###
= (185,378.57)
50

Yc = a + bx

∑X 908,899.09 15
= - ### = 181,779.82 - -34311
n 5 5
(571,857.13)
= (11,437.14)
50
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a +
###
2018 6,952,248.00 1 1 6,952,248.00 ### +
2019 6,758,940.74 2 4 13,517,881.49 ### +
2020 6,571,008.40 3 9 19,713,025.19 ### +
2021 6,388,301.51 4 16 25,553,206.03 ### +
2022 6,210,674.79 5 25 31,053,373.93 ### +
32,881,173.43 15 55 96,789,734.64

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a +
216,091.25
2018 203,952.00 1 1 203,952.00 216091.25 +
2019 190,197.62 2 4 380,395.25 216091.25 +
2020 183,940.12 3 9 551,820.36 216091.25 +
2021 177,888.49 4 16 711,553.96 216091.25 +
2022 152,920.85 5 25 764,604.27 216091.25 +
908,899.09 15 55 2,612,325.84
AL VALUES PROJECTED
b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a
### 1 = 6946992 ### ### 2018 ###
### 2 = 6761613 ### ### 2019 ###
### 3 = 6576235 ### ### 2020 ###
### 4 = 6390856 ### ### 2021 ###
### 5 = 6205478 ### ### 2022 ###
###

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

95,621,093.90
5

19,124,218.78

4373.12

AL VALUES PROJECTED
b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a
### 1 = 204654 ### ### 2015 216091.25
### 2 = 193217 ### ### 2016 216091.25
### 3 = 181780 ### ### 2017 216091.25
### 4 = 170343 ### ### 2018 216091.25
### 5 = 158906 ### ### 2019 216091.25
###

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

107,031,984.04
 5

21,406,396.81

4626.70
 D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²
PROJECTED VALUES
+ b x = Yc Where:
a=
+ ### 6 = 6,020,098.99
+ ### 7 = 5,834,720.42
+ ### 8 = 5,649,341.85
b=
+ ### 9 = 5,463,963.29
+ ### 10 = 5,278,584.72

c=

D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

PROJECTED VALUES
+ b x = Yc Where:
a=
+ ### 6 = 147468.38987
+ ### 7 = 136031.2473
+ ### 8 = 124594.10473
b=
+ ### 9 = 113156.96217
+ ### 10 = 101719.8196

c=
Yc = a + bx + cx²

(∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) 7,359,529,005.68

= = 7E+06
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

∑XY ###
= = (92,689.28)
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y) 731,730.47

= = 653.331
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

Yc = a + bx + cx²

(∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) 207,148,699.65

= = 184954
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

∑XY ###
= = (5,718.57)
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y) (444,413.00)

= = -396.8
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² X4 XY X²Y a +
2018 6,952,248.00 -4 16 256 (27,808,992.00) 111,235,968.00 ### +
2019 6,758,940.74 -2 4 16 (13,517,881.49) 27,035,762.98 ### +
2020 6,571,008.40 0 0 0 - - ### +
2021 6,388,301.51 2 4 16 12,776,603.02 25,553,206.03 ### +
2022 6,210,674.79 4 16 256 24,842,699.14 99,370,796.56 ### +
32,881,173.43 40 544 (3,707,571.33) 263,195,733.57

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² X4 XY X²Y a +
2018 203,952.00 -4 16 256 (815,808.00) 3,263,232.00 184954.20 +
2019 190,197.62 -2 4 16 (380,395.25) 760,790.49 184954.20 +
2020 183,940.12 0 0 0 - - 184954.20 +
2021 177,888.49 2 4 16 355,776.98 711,553.96 184954.20 +
2022 152,920.85 4 16 256 611,683.41 2,446,733.65 184954.20 +
908,899.09 40 544 (228,742.85) 7,182,310.10
ORICAL VALUES
b x + c x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
### -4 + 653.33 16 = 6,952,218.47 29.53 872.239
### -2 + 653.33 4 = 6,758,999.93 (59.19) 3503
### 0 + 653.33 0 = 6,571,008.04 0.36 0.12686
### 2 + 653.33 4 = 6,388,242.80 58.71 3447
### 4 + 653.33 16 = 6,210,704.20 (29.41) 865.24
8687.6

Standard Deviation:

ORICAL VALUES
b x + c x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
(5,718.57) -4 + (396.80) 16 = 201,479.72 ### 6E+06
(5,718.57) -2 + (396.80) 4 = 194,804.15 ### 2E+07
(5,718.57) 0 + (396.80) 0 = 184,954.20 ### 1E+06
(5,718.57) 2 + (396.80) 4 = 171,929.86 ### 4E+07
(5,718.57) 4 + (396.80) 16 = 155,731.15 ### 8E+06
7E+07

Standard Deviation:
 PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + b x + c x² =
2018 ### + ### 6 + 653.33 36 =
2019 ### + ### 8 + 653.33 64 =
2020 ### + ### 10 + 653.33 100 =
2021 ### + ### 12 + 653.33 144 =
2022 ### + ### 14 + 653.33 196 =

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

8,687.60
5

1,737.52

41.68

Year a + b x + c x² =
2015 184954.20 + (5,718.57) 6 + (396.80) 36 =
2016 184954.20 + (5,718.57) 8 + (396.80) 64 =
2017 184954.20 + (5,718.57) 10 + (396.80) 100 =
2018 184954.20 + (5,718.57) 12 + (396.80) 144 =
2019 184954.20 + (5,718.57) 14 + (396.80) 196 =

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

71,763,607.19
5
14,352,721.44

3788.50
 To be presented on your Projected Demand and Sup

Year Total Demand

Yc 2018 6,038,392
### 2019 5,871,307
### 2020 5,709,448
### 2021 5,552,816
### 2022 5,401,411
###

Methods Standard Deviation

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 6814.92
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 598750.81
C. Statistical Straight Line: 4373.12
D. Statistical Parabolic: 41.68

Note: The lowest standard devation will be the formula used in the projecti

Yc
136,358.06
113,810.60
88,088.75
59,192.53
27,121.92
 Projected Demand and Supply

Year Total Supply Market Gap

2018 136,358 5,902,034
2019 113,811 5,757,496
2020 88,089 5,621,360
2021 59,193 5,493,624
2022 27,122 5,374,289

ard Deviation Methods Standard Deviation

6814.92 A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 6006.07
98750.81 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 37022.55
4373.12 C. Statistical Straight Line: 4626.70
41.68 D. Statistical Parabolic: 3788.50

e formula used in the projection

Projected Demand and Supply
Year Total Demand Total Supply Market Gap
2019 6038392 136358 5902034
2020 5871307 113811 5757496
2021 5709448 88089 5621360
2022 5552816 59193 5493624
2023 5401411 27122 5374289
 DEMAND
Year Total Demand
2018 $ 51,480.0
2019 $ 48,679.5
2020 $ 46,031.3
2021 $ 43,527.2
2022 $ 41,159.3

Year # of Retailers Average # of Purchase per block

2010 15 20,656.66
2011 15 20,865.31
2012 15 21,076.07
2013 15 21,288.96
2014 15 21,504.00

26,880.00
15,120.00
15,120.00
26,880.00
23,520.00
21,504.00

SUPPLY
Year Total Supply
2018 93600.00
2019 89856.00
2020 86261.76
2021 41405.64
2022 39749.42

Year # of Competitor Average # of Blocxks Sold (per y

2010 5 52,448.54
2011 5 52,978.33
2012 5 53,513.46
2013 5 54,054.00
 2014 5 54,600.00

4320000
3636000 33,600.00
2203416 50,400.00
741600 67,200.00
756216 67,200.00
54,600.00

VENDORS
DEMAND
Potential customer (90%) Kl/s of onion ordered
2020 22 45
0.88 2019 21 44
0.8448 2018 20 44
0.81101 2017 19 43
0.77857 2016 19 42

average of 5 (9 kls per bag) bags bought per week

there are 24 vegetable vendors (w/ permit/license) in the maarket- based in the data given from l
increase or decrease of demand of onion is based on the % increase/decrease of target market (
average of 4% increase/decrease of vendors from 2016-2020

HOUSEHOLD
DEMAND
Potential customer (55%) Kl/s of onion bought
2020 8867 0.50
133.005 2019 8734 0.49
131.01 2018 8603 0.49
129.045 2017 8474 0.48
127.109 2016 8347 0.47

average of 1/2 kl bought per week

16,122 households
increase or decrease of demand of onion is based on the % increase/decrease of target market (
average of 1.5% increase/decrease of vendors from 2016-2020

HISTORICAL DEMAND
Year Total Demand
2020 2020 282,022.00
 2019 2019 272,357.10
2018 2018 263,048.93
2017 2017 254,083.13
2016 2016 245,445.95

HISTORICAL SUPPLY
SUPPLY
Number of Existing
competitors kls delivered in the market
2020 2 900
2019 2 864
2018 2 829
2017 1 796
2016 1 764

100 basg (9kls/ bag) delivered weekly

average of 4% increase/decrease of vendors from 2016-2020

Projected Demand and Supply, and Market Gap

Year Total Demand
2025 38942.0584548703
2024 36867.360759394
2023 34936.8520084231
2022 33150.5322019574
2021 31508.401339997

Demand
Methods Standard Deviation
A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 188.021610390894
B. Arithmetic Geometric Cur 7189.84041073015
C. Statistical Straight Line: 120.658679065539
D. Statistical Parabolic: 2.28048932352726

Note: The lowest standard devation will be the formula used in the projection
 A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc
s
N-1
Total Demand
309,849.85
312,979.65
316,141.06
319,334.40
322,560.00

A. Arithmetic Straight Line:

where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past

Yn - Yc
a=
N-1

Total Supply
262,242.71
264,891.63
267,567.30
270,270.00
 273,000.00

%
weekly frequency Total Demand Products QD
52 51480 51480
52 48679 0.675 48679
52 46031 0.66488 46031
52 43527 0.6549 43527
52 41159 0.64508 41159

rket- based in the data given from licensing office of LGU

ncrease/decrease of target market (determinant of demand)

%
weekly frequency Total Demand Products QD
52 230542 230542
52 223678 0.0075 223678
52 217018 0.00739 217018
52 210556 0.00728 210556
52 204287 0.00717 204287

ncrease/decrease of target market (determinant of demand)

 Frequency Totl Supply Qs
52 93600 93600
52 89856 36 89856
52 86262 34.56 86262
52 41406 33.1776 41406
52 39749 31.8505 39749

d Supply, and Market Gap ****Reasons for negative supply: natura

Total Supply Market Gap
4785.94621440001 34156.1122404702
-29372.368896 66239.729655394
-68828.7306898286 103765.582698252
-113583.139167086 146733.671369043
-163635.594327771 195143.995667768

Supply
Methods Standard Deviation
A. Arithmetic Straight L 11113.0207680931
B. Arithmetic Geometri 39848.7029063715
C. Statistical Straight L 10098.6967257013
D. Statistical Paraboli 9073.87273967618

ula used in the projection

 Yc = a + Yi - 1
= Initial Value (1st Year)
= Final Value (Last Year)
Number of years
Value for the year Past Year
2018
(10,320.66) 2019
= = (2,580.17)
4 2020
2021
2022

Yc = a + Yi - 1
= Initial Value (1st Year)
= Final Value (Last Year)
Number of years
Value for the year Past Year
2018
(53,850.58) 2019
= = (13,462.65)
4 2020
2021
2022
 87 7 4 2 0
0.87 0.07 0.04 0.02 0
Year Red onion yellow onion sweet onion white onion
2020 44787.6 3603.6 2059.2 1029.6 0
2019 42351.15456 3407.56416 1947.17952 973.58976 0
2018 40047.2517519 3222.1926697 1841.252954 920.626477056 0
2017 37868.6812566 3046.9053885 1741.088793 870.544396704 0
2016 35808.6249963 2881.1537353 1646.373563 823.186781523 0

92 4 3 1 0
0.92 0.04 0.03 0.01 0
Year Red onion yellow onion sweet onion white onion
2020 212098.64 9221.68 6916.26 2305.42 0
2019 205783.402994 8947.104478 6710.328359 2236.7761195 0
2018 199656.20217 8680.7044422 6510.528332 2170.17611054 0
2017 193711.43875 8422.2364674 6316.677351 2105.55911685 0
2016 187943.680661 8171.4643766 6128.598282 2042.86609415 0
 96 2 1 1 0
0.96 0.02 0.01 0.01 0
Year Red onion yellow onion sweet onion white onion bebitin
2020 89856 1872 936 936 0
2019 86261.76 1797.12 898.56 898.56 0
2018 82811.2896 1725.2352 862.6176 862.6176 0
2017 39749.419008 828.112896 414.056448 414.056448 0
2016 38159.4422477 794.98838016 397.4941901 397.49419008 0

for negative supply: natural calamities, seasonal croping, higher cost of production, low market price
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Y a + Yi - 1 = Yc
51,480.00 - + -
48,679.49 (2,580.17) + 51,480.00 = 48,899.83
46,031.32 (2,580.17) + 48,899.83 = 46,319.67
43,527.22 (2,580.17) + 46,319.67 = 43,739.50
41,159.34 (2,580.17) + 43,739.50 = 41,159.34

Standard Deviation:

HISTORICAL VALUES
Y a + Yi - 1 = Yc
93,600.00 - + -
89,856.00 (13,462.65) + 93,600.00 = 80,137.35
86,261.76 (13,462.65) + 80,137.35 = 66,674.71
41,405.64 (13,462.65) + 66,674.71 = 53,212.06
39,749.42 (13,462.65) + 53,212.06 = 39,749.42

Standard Deviation:
 0 0 0 100
0 0 0 1
buttered fried fried n sauce total
0 0 0 51480
0 0 0 48679.488
0 0 0 46031.3238528
0 0 0 43527.2198352077
0 0 0 41159.3390761724

0 0 0 100
0 0 0 1
buttered fried fried n sauce total
0 0 0 230542
0 0 0 223677.61195
0 0 0 217017.611054189
0 0 0 210555.91168505
0 0 0 204286.609414628
 0 0 0 100
0 0 0 1
buttered fried fried n sauce total
0 0 0 93600
0 0 0 89856
0 0 0 86261.76
0 0 0 41405.6448
0 0 0 39749.419008

ow market price
 PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 =
0 - 2018 (2,580.17) + 41,159.34 =
(220.35) 48,552.70 2019 (2,580.17) + 38,579.17 =
(288.35) 83,143.23 2020 (2,580.17) + 35,999.01 =
(212.28) 45,064.70 2021 (2,580.17) + 33,418.84 =
- - 2022 (2,580.17) + 30,838.68 =
176,760.63

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

176,760.63
5

35,352.13

188.02

PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 =
0 - 2015 (13,462.65) + 39,749.42 =
9,718.65 94,452,065.46 2016 (13,462.65) + 26,286.77 =
19,587.05 ### 2017 (13,462.65) + 12,824.13 =
(11,806.42) ### 2018 (13,462.65) + (638.52) =
- - 2019 (13,462.65) + (14,101.16) =
###

∑(Y - Yc)²
N
###
5

###

11113.02
 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1
Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
LUES r = Average rate of Increase
Yc
38,579.17 ∑% increase -21.76
r= =
35,999.01 N-1 4 0.01
33,418.84
30,838.68
28,258.51

B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1

Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
LUES r = Average rate of Increase
Yc
26,286.77 ∑% increase -64
r= =
12,824.13 N-1 4 0.01
(638.52)
(14,101.16)
(27,563.81)
 % of HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) =
2018 51480.00 (Decrease)
- 39,948.85 ÷ 1.01 =
2019 48679.49 -5.44 40,348.34 ÷ 1.01 =
2020 46031.32 -5.44 40,751.82 ÷ 1.01 =
2021 43527.22 -5.44 41,159.34 ÷ 1.01 =
2022 41159.34 -5.44
-21.76

Standard Deviation:

% of HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y Increase Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) =
2018 93600.00 (Decrease)
- 38,580.39 ÷ 1.01 =
2019 89856.00 -4 38,966.20 ÷ 1.01 =
2020 86261.76 -4 39,355.86 ÷ 1.01 =
2021 41405.64 -52 39,749.42 ÷ 1.01 =
2022 39749.42 -4
-64

Standard Deviation:
AL VALUES PROJECTED VALUES
Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x
39,553.32 11,926.68 142245794.954 2018 41,159.34 x
39,948.85 8,730.64 76224057.3039 2019 41,570.93 x
40,348.34 5,682.99 32296333.9705 2020 41,986.64 x
40,751.82 2,775.40 7702839.42997 2021 42,406.51 x
2022 42,830.57 x
###

andard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N 1438.25946154

###
5

51,693,805.13

7189.84

AL VALUES PROJECTED VALUES

Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x
38,198.41 55,401.59 3069336133.39 2015 39,749.42 x
38,580.39 51,275.61 2629187722 2016 40,146.91 x
38,966.20 47,295.56 2236870145.19 2017 40,548.38 x
39,355.86 2,049.78 4201616.07025 2018 40,953.87 x
2019 41,363.40 x
###

andard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N
 ###
5

###

39848.70
 C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
OJECTED VALUES n
(1 + r) = Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
1.01 = 41,570.93 n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
1.01 = 41,986.64
1.01 = 42,406.51
1.01 = 42,830.57
1.01 = 43,258.88

1424.019269
1438.259462
1452.642056
1467.168477
1481.840161

C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
OJECTED VALUES n
(1 + r) = Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
1.01 = 40,146.91 n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
1.01 = 40,548.38
1.01 = 40,953.87
1.01 = 41,363.40
1.01 = 41,777.04
Yc = a + bx

∑X 230,877.37 15
= - (2,579.36) = 46,175.47 - -7738.1
n 5 5
(128,967.95)
= (2,579.36)
50

Yc = a + bx

∑X 350,872.82 15
= - ### = 70,174.56 - -46845
n 5 5
(780,757.59)
= (15,615.15)
50
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a +
53,913.55
2018 51,480.00 1 1 51,480.00 53913.55 +
2019 48,679.49 2 4 97,358.98 53913.55 +
2020 46,031.32 3 9 138,093.97 53913.55 +
2021 43,527.22 4 16 174,108.88 53913.55 +
2022 41,159.34 5 25 205,796.70 53913.55 +
230,877.37 15 55 666,838.52

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a +
117,020.02
2018 93,600.00 1 1 93,600.00 117020.02 +
2019 89,856.00 2 4 179,712.00 117020.02 +
2020 86,261.76 3 9 258,785.28 117020.02 +
2021 41,405.64 4 16 165,622.58 117020.02 +
2022 39,749.42 5 25 198,747.10 117020.02 +
350,872.82 15 55 896,466.95
AL VALUES PROJECTED
b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a
(2,579.36) 1 = 51334.19 145.81 ### 2018 53913.55
(2,579.36) 2 = 48754.83 (75.35) 5676.89 2019 53913.55
(2,579.36) 3 = 46175.47 ### ### 2020 53913.55
(2,579.36) 4 = 43596.12 (68.90) 4746.56 2021 53913.55
(2,579.36) 5 = 41016.76 142.58 ### 2022 53913.55
###

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

72,792.58
5

14,558.52

120.66

AL VALUES PROJECTED
b x = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a
### 1 = 101405 ### ### 2015 117020.02
### 2 = 85789.72 ### ### 2016 117020.02
### 3 = 70174.56 ### ### 2017 117020.02
### 4 = 54559.41 ### ### 2018 117020.02
### 5 = 38944.26 805.16 ### 2019 117020.02
###

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

509,918,377.79
 5

101,983,675.56

10098.70
 D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²
PROJECTED VALUES
+ b x = Yc Where:
a=
+ (2,579.36) 6 = 38,437.40
+ (2,579.36) 7 = 35,858.04
+ (2,579.36) 8 = 33,278.68
b=
+ (2,579.36) 9 = 30,699.32
+ (2,579.36) 10 = 28,119.96

c=

D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

PROJECTED VALUES
+ b x = Yc Where:
a=
+ ### 6 = 23329.109606
+ ### 7 = 7713.957888
+ ### 8 = -7901.1938304
b=
+ ### 9 = -23516.345549
+ ### 10 = -39131.497267

c=
Yc = a + bx + cx²

(∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) 51,555,039.43

= = 46031
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

∑XY (51,587.18)
= = (1,289.68)
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y) 20,186.45

= = 18.0236
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

Yc = a + bx + cx²

(∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) 84,529,324.82

= = 75473
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00

∑XY ###
= = (7,807.58)
∑X² 40

n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y) (741,726.54)

= = -662.26
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² X4 XY X²Y a +
2018 51,480.00 -4 16 256 (205,920.00) 823,680.00 46031.29 +
2019 48,679.49 -2 4 16 (97,358.98) 194,717.95 46031.29 +
2020 46,031.32 0 0 0 - - 46031.29 +
2021 43,527.22 2 4 16 87,054.44 174,108.88 46031.29 +
2022 41,159.34 4 16 256 164,637.36 658,549.43 46031.29 +
230,877.37 40 544 (51,587.18) 1,851,056.26

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² X4 XY X²Y a +
2018 93,600.00 -4 16 256 (374,400.00) 1,497,600.00 75472.61 +
2019 89,856.00 -2 4 16 (179,712.00) 359,424.00 75472.61 +
2020 86,261.76 0 0 0 - - 75472.61 +
2021 41,405.64 2 4 16 82,811.29 165,622.58 75472.61 +
2022 39,749.42 4 16 256 158,997.68 635,990.70 75472.61 +
350,872.82 40 544 (312,303.03) 2,658,637.28
ORICAL VALUES
b x + c x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
(1,289.68) -4 + 18.02 16 = 51,478.38 1.62 2.62084
(1,289.68) -2 + 18.02 4 = 48,682.74 (3.25) 10.5669
(1,289.68) 0 + 18.02 0 = 46,031.29 0.04 0.00149
(1,289.68) 2 + 18.02 4 = 43,524.02 3.20 10.2346
(1,289.68) 4 + 18.02 16 = 41,160.95 (1.61) 2.5793
26.0032

Standard Deviation:

ORICAL VALUES
b x + c x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)²
(7,807.58) -4 + (662.26) 16 = 96,106.82 ### 6E+06
(7,807.58) -2 + (662.26) 4 = 88,438.74 ### 2E+06
(7,807.58) 0 + (662.26) 0 = 75,472.61 ### 1E+08
(7,807.58) 2 + (662.26) 4 = 57,208.44 ### 2E+08
(7,807.58) 4 + (662.26) 16 = 33,646.21 ### 4E+07
4E+08

Standard Deviation:
 PROJECTED VALUES
Year a + b x + c x² =
2018 46031.29 + (1,289.68) 6 + 18.02 36 =
2019 46031.29 + (1,289.68) 8 + 18.02 64 =
2020 46031.29 + (1,289.68) 10 + 18.02 100 =
2021 46031.29 + (1,289.68) 12 + 18.02 144 =
2022 46031.29 + (1,289.68) 14 + 18.02 196 =

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

26.00
5

5.20

2.28

Year a + b x + c x² =
2015 75472.61 + (7,807.58) 6 + (662.26) 36 =
2016 75472.61 + (7,807.58) 8 + (662.26) 64 =
2017 75472.61 + (7,807.58) 10 + (662.26) 100 =
2018 75472.61 + (7,807.58) 12 + (662.26) 144 =
2019 75472.61 + (7,807.58) 14 + (662.26) 196 =

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

411,675,832.48
5
82,335,166.50

9073.87
 To be presented on your Projected Demand and Sup

Year Total Demand

Yc 2018 38,942
38,942.06 2019 36,867
36,867.36 2020 34,937
34,936.85 2021 33,151
33,150.53 2022 31,508
31,508.40

Methods Standard Deviation

A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 188.02
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 7189.84
C. Statistical Straight Line: 120.66
D. Statistical Parabolic: 2.28

Note: The lowest standard devation will be the formula used in the projecti

Yc
4,785.95
(29,372.37)
(68,828.73)
(113,583.14)
(163,635.59)
 Projected Demand and Supply

Year Total Supply Market Gap

2018 4,786 34,156
2019 (29,372) 66,240
2020 (68,829) 103,766
2021 (113,583) 146,734
2022 (163,636) 195,144

ard Deviation Methods Standard Deviation

188.02 A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 11113.02
7189.84 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 39848.70
120.66 C. Statistical Straight Line: 10098.70
2.28 D. Statistical Parabolic: 9073.87

e formula used in the projection

Projected Demand and Supply, and Market Gap
Year Total Demand Total Supply Market Gap
2025 38942 4786 34156
2024 36867 -29372 66240
2023 34937 -68829 103766
2022 33151 -113583 146734
2021 31508 -163636 195144