Discrete Distribution

Dr. P .Mary Jeyanthi

The outcomes for random variables and their associated probabilities can be organized
into distributions.

The two types of distributions are discrete distributions, constructed from discrete random
variables, and continuous distributions, based on continuous random variables.

Two discrete distributions are presented here:

Binomial distribution

Poisson distribution
The Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
A widely known discrete distribution constructed by determining the probabilities of
X successes in n trials.

Characteristics of a Binomial Experiment

• The experiment involves n identical trials

• Each trial has only two possible outcomes: success and failure
• Each trial is independent of the previous trials
• The terms p and q remain constant throughout the experiment
• p is the probability of a success on any one trial
• q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one trial
 Binomial Probability Distribution ---B( n, p)

 n  x n x n!
p( x)    p q  p x (1  p ) n  x
 x x ! (n  x)!

p(x) = Probability of x ‘Successes’

p = Probability of a ‘Success’ on a single trial
q = 1–p
n = Number of trials
x = Number of ‘Successes’ in n trials
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n – x = Number of failures in n trials
 Binomial Distribution
• Probability n! X n X
function P( X )  p q for 0  X  n
X ! n  X  !

• Mean
value
  n p

• Variance and
 2
 n pq
standard
deviation    2
 n pq
• X = Number of Heads from flipping coin 5 times
• Possible outcome from 5 flips : 2 . 2 . 2 . 2. 2 = 2^5 = 32

• P(X=0) = 5 C 0 / 32 [5 C 0 = 5! / 0! (5-0)! = 5! / 5! = 1] = 1/32

• P(X=1) = 5 C 1 / 32 [5 C 1 = 5! / 1! (5-1)! = 5! / 4! = 5] = 5/32
• P(X=2) = 5 C 2 / 32 [5 C 2 = 5! / 2! (5-2)! = 5! / 2! * 3! = 10] = 10/32
• P(X=3) = 5 C 3 / 32 [5 C 3 = 5! / 3! (5-3)! = 5! / 3! * 2! = 10] = 10/32
• P(X=4) = 5 C 4 / 32 [5 C 4 = 5! / 4! (5-4)! = 5! / 4! * 1! = 5] = 5/32
• P(X=5) = 5 C 5 / 32 [5 C 5 = 5! / 5! (5-5)! = 5! / 5! * 0! = 1] = 1/32
Graphical representation
 Binomial Probability Distribution
Example:1 Toss a coin 5 times in a row. Note number of tails. What’s
the probability of 3 tails? Find mean and standard deviation.
n!
p( x)  p x (1  p ) n  x
x !( n  x )!

5!
p (3)  .53 (1  .5)53
3!(5  3)!

 .3125
Binomial Probability Table (Portion)
 Binomial Probability Table (Portion)
n = 5, Taking different value of p
p
x .01 … 0.50 … .99
0 .951 … .031 … .000
1 .999 … .188 … .000
2 1.000 … .500 … .000
3 1.000 … .812 … .001
4 1.000 … .969 … .049
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
1.0
Mean .5
  E(x)  np .0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

Standard Deviation

  npq
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.6
.4
.2
.0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
 Graphs of Selected
Binomial Distributions
n = 4 PROBABILITY P = 0.5
1.000
X 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.900
0.800
0 0.656 0.063 0.000 0.700
0.600
1 0.292 0.250 0.004

P(X)
0.500
0.400

2 0.049 0.375 0.049 0.300

0.200

3 0.004 0.250 0.292 0.100

0.000

4 0.000 0.063 0.656 0 1 2 3

X
4

P = 0.1 P = 0.9
1.000 1.000
0.900 0.900
0.800 0.800
0.700 0.700
0.600 0.600

P(X)
P(X)

0.500 0.500
0.400 0.400
0.300 0.300
0.200 0.200
0.100 0.100
0.000 0.000
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
X X
Example:2 You’re a telemarketer selling service contracts for Macy’s.
You’ve sold 20 in your last 100 calls (p = .20). If you call 12 people
tonight, what’s the probability of
A. No sales?
B. Exactly 2 sales?
C. At most 2 sales?
D. At least 2 sales?
Solution:
n = 12, p = .20
A. p(0) = .0687
B. p(2) = .2835
C. p(at most 2) = p(0) + p(1) + p(2) = .0687 + .2062 + .2835
= .5584
D. p(at least 2) = p(2) + p(3)...+ p(12)= 1 – [p(0) + p(1)]
= 1 – .0687 – .2062 = .7251
Example:3

A Gallup survey found that 65% of all financial consumers were very satisfied
with their primary financial institution. Suppose that 25 financial consumers are
sampled and if the Gallup survey result still holds true today, what is the
probability that exactly 19 are very satisfied with their primary financial
institution?
Example:3
A Gallup survey found that 65% of all financial consumers were very satisfied
with their primary financial institution. Suppose that 25 financial consumers are
sampled and if the Gallup survey result still holds true today, what is the
probability that exactly 19 are very satisfied with their primary financial
institution?

Solution:
Poisson Distribution
 Poisson Distribution
• Describes discrete occurrences over a continuum or interval
• A discrete distribution and Describes rare events
• As n is large and p is small, the binomial probability can be
approximated by the Poisson probability function
• Each occurrence is independent any other occurrences.
• The number of occurrences in each interval can vary from zero to
infinity.
• The expected number of occurrences must hold constant throughout the
experiment.
Examples of Poisson-type situations include the following:

• 1. Number of hazardous waste sites per county in the United States

• 2. Number of arrivals at a turnpike tollbooth per minute between 3 A.M.
and 4 A.M. in January on the Kansas Turnpike
• 3. Number of sewing flaws per pair of jeans during production
• 4. Number of times a tire blows on a commercial airplane per week
 Approximating Binomial Problems by
the Poisson Distribution

Binomial problems with large sample sizes and small values of p, which then
generate rare events, are potential candidates for use of the Poisson
distribution.

As a rule of thumb, if n > 20 and n * p > 7, the approximation is close

enough to use the Poisson distribution for binomial problems.
 Poisson Distribution
• Probability function

P( X )  
X 
e for X  0,1,2,3,...
X!
where :
  longrun average
e  2.718282... (the base of natural logarithms)

 Mean value  Variance  Standard deviation

  
 Example:1

Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday afternoons at an average of 3.2

customers every 4 minutes. What is the probability of having
(a) 8 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
(b) 9 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
(c) 10 customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
 Solution:l
λ = 3.2 customers/4 minutes
 Example:2

A bank has an average random arrival rate of 3.2 customers every 4 minutes.
What is the probability of getting exactly 10 customers during an 8-minute
interval?
 Solution:

λ = 3.2 customers/ 4 minutes

λ = 6.4 customers/ 8 minutes
EXAMPLE:3

Q. Suppose the probability of a bank making a mistake in processing a deposit

is .0003. If 10,000 deposits (n) are audited, what is the probability that more
than 6 mistakes were made in processing deposits?
EXAMPLE:3