In Late 1980 The U S Commerce Department Released New Data PDF

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In late 1980 the U S Commerce Department released new

data
In late 1980, the U.S. Commerce Department released new data showing inflation was 15%. At
the time, the prime rate of interest was 21%, a record high. However, many investors expected
the new Reagan administration to be more effective in controlling inflation than the Carter
administration had been. Moreover, many observers believed that the extremely high interest
rates and generally tight credit, which resulted from the Federal Reserve System’s attempts to
curb the inflation rate, would lead to a recession, which, in turn, would lead to a decline in
inflation and interest rates. Assume that at the beginning of 1981, the expected inflation rate for
1981 was 13%; for 1982, 9%; for 1983, 7%; and for 1984 and thereafter, 6%.a. What was the
average expected inflation rate over the 5-year period 1981 – 1985? (Use the arithmetic
average.)b. Over the 5-year period, what average nominal interest rate would be expected to
produce a 2% real risk-free return on 5-year Treasury securities? Assume MRP = 0.c. Assuming
a real risk-free rate of 2% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 $ (t)%, where t is the
number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in
1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 years. Draw a yield curve based on these data.d. Describe the general
economic conditions that could lead to an upward-sloping yield curve.e. If investors in early
1981 expected the inflation rate for every future year to be 10% (that is, It = It#1 = 10% for t = 1
to #), what would the yield curve have looked like? Consider all the factors that are likely to
affect the curve. Does your answer here make you question the yield curve you drew in part
c?View Solution:
In late 1980 the U S Commerce Department released new data
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