Probability: Introduction to Basic Concept

The word probability is a commonly used term that relates to the chance that a particular event will
occur when some experiment is performed. Uncertainty pervades all aspects of human endeavor.
Probability is one of our most important conceptual tools because we use it to assess degrees of
uncertainty and thereby to reduce risk. Whether or not one has had formal instruction in this topic,
s/he is already familiar with the concept of probability since it pervades almost all aspects of our
lives. Without consciously realizing it many of our decisions are based on probability. For example,
when you study for an examination, you concentrate more on areas that you feel are likely to be
covered on the test. You may cancel or postpone an outdoor activity if you believe the likelihood of
rain is high.

In business, probability plays a key role in decision-making. The owner of a retail shoe store, for
example, orders heavily in those sizes that s/he believes likely to sell fast. The owner of a movie
theatre schedules matinees only during holiday seasons because the chances of filling the theatre are
greater at that time. The two companies decide to merge when they believe the probability of success
is greater for the consolidated company than for either independently.

Some important Definitions:

Experiment:
An experiment is any process that produces an observation or outcome.
Experiment is an act that can be repeated under given conditions.
Experiment can be of two types –
i. Deterministic experiment
ii. Random experiment
Usually, the exact result of the experiment cannot be predicted with
certainly.
Unit experiment is known as trial. This means that trial is a special case
of experiment. Experiment may be a trial or two or more trials.
Example: some example of experiments and their sample spaces are as follows.

Sample space & Sample point:

A sample space of an experiment is a set or collection of all possible outcomes of the same

experiment and is usually denoted by the symbol S or ω .

Each outcome of an experiment can be thought of as a sample point or element in the sample space.
 Probability

Example:
Some example of experiments and their sample spaces are as follows.
i. If the experiment consists of flipping two coins and noting whether they land heads
or tails, then
S= { ( H , H ) , ( H , T ) , ( T , H ) , (T , T ) }
ii. If the outcome of the experiment is the gender of a child, then
S= { G, B }
Where outcome G means that the child is a girl and B that it is a boy.

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STA 101_Introduction to Statistics I M Shafiqul Kalam (ISK)
Assistant Professor, MNS, BRACU

iii. Consider an experiment that consists of rolling two balanced dice, one black and
one red are thrown and number of dots on their upper faces are noted, also if b be
the outcomes of the black die and r be the outcomes of the red die. If we let ( b , r )
denote the outcome in which black dice has value b and red dice has value r, then the
sample space of this experiment is:
r 1 2 3 4 5 6


b 
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2 2,1
3 3,5
4
5 5,1
6 6,1 6,2 6,6

Events:
Any set of outcomes of the experiment is called an event. One or more outcomes of an experiment
constitute an event.
Events are generally denoted by capital letter A, B, C, etc.
There are two types of events
Simple event - … if an event contains only one sample point.
Compound event - if an event contains more than one sample point.

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 Probability

Different approaches in defining probability:

There are different approaches in defining probability are:
1. Classical or Mathematical or a priori probability
2. Empirical or frequency probability
3. Subjective probability

1. Classical or Mathematical or a priori probability:

If there are n mutually exclusive, equally likely and exhaustive outcomes of an experiment and if m
of this outcomes are favorable to an event A, then the probability of the event A which is denoted by
P(A) is defined by

m m= Favorable outcomes of an event A

P ( A )= ;
n n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment

There are three drawbacks of classical definition of probability:

i. The classical probability fails to define probability when the total number of possible
outcomes is infinite.
ii. The classical definition leaves us completely helpless when the possible outcomes are not
equally likely.
iii. It is not always possible to enumerate all the equally likely cases.

2. Empirical or frequency probability:

If an experiment is repeated a large number of times (n times) under the same conditions and an event
A occurs m times then according to empirical or frequency approach of probability the probability of
the event A

m m= Number of times event A occurs.

P ( A )=lim n →∞ ;
n n= Total number of trials.

Drawbacks of the empirical probability:

i. In practice, it is not possible to repeat the experiment an infinite number of times under the
same conditions to get the probability.
ii. It is not clear how large n should be before we are certain that the probability, p is close to the

m
limiting of n as n→ ∞ .
3. Subjective probability:
The probability that a person assigns to an event on the basis of his own judgment, beliefs and
information about the event is known as subjective probability.
The subjective probability has the following drawbacks,

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STA 101_Introduction to Statistics I M Shafiqul Kalam (ISK)
Assistant Professor, MNS, BRACU

i. It varies from individual to individual as it depends on individual’s judgment and belief,

ii. It has no objective basis.

Problem:

A bag contains 4 white and 6 black balls. If one ball is drawn at random
from the bag, what is the probability that it is i. Black, ii. White, iii.
White or black and iv. Red.

Answer:
i. Let A be the event that the ball is black, then the number of outcomes favorable to A is 6. Hence
m 6 m= Favorable outcomes of an event A = Number of black balls
P ( A )= = ;
n 10 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of balls
ii. Let B be the event that the ball is white, and then the number of outcomes favorable to B is 4.
Hence

m 4 m= Favorable outcomes of an event B = Number of white balls

P (B)= = ;
n 10 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of balls

iii. Let C be the event that the ball is black or white and then the number of outcomes favorable to C is
10. Hence
m 10 m= Favorable outcomes of an event C = Number of white or white balls
P (C ) = = ;
n 10 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of balls
iv. Let D be the event that the ball is red, and then the number of outcomes favorable to B is 4. Hence

m 0 m= Favorable outcomes of an event D = Number of red balls

P ( D )= = ;
n 10 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of balls

Problem:

A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that it is i.

A red card, ii. A spade, iii. An ace, iv. Not a spade and v. a king or a
queen.

Answer:
When a card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards, the total number of equally likely and mutually

exclusive outcomes are 52. That is here n=52

i. Let A be the event drawing a red card. There are 26 black card and 26 red cards in a pack and any
one of the red cards can be drawn in 26 ways. Hence

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Probability

m 26 m= Favorable outcomes of an event A = Number of red cards balls

P ( A )= = ;
n 52 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of cards

ii. Let B be the event drawing a spade. There are 13 spades. Hence

m 13 m= Favorable outcomes of an event B = Number of spades

P (B)= = ;
n 52 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of cards

iii. Let C be the event drawing an ace. There are 4 spades. Hence
m 4 m= Favorable outcomes of an event C = Number of ace
P ( C )= = ;
n 52 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of cards

iv. Let D be the event drawing a card that is not a spade. There are 39 cards that is not spade. Hence

m 39 m= Favorable outcomes of an event D = Number of cards not spade

P ( D )= = ;
n 52 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of cards

v. Let E be the event drawing a card will be either king or queen. There are 4 kings and 4 queens.
Hence
m 8 m= Favorable outcomes of an event E = Number of kings and queens
P ( D )= = ;
n 52 n= Total number of outcomes of the experiment = Total number of cards

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STA 101_Introduction to Statistics I M Shafiqul Kalam (ISK)
Assistant Professor, MNS, BRACU

Some basic event operations:

Complement of any event:
For any event A, the complement of A (denoted

A={ 1,3,5 } by Ac or Á or A' ) with respect to Ω is the set

of all elements that are in Ω but not in A.

Á={ 2,4,6 }

Shaded region is Complement of A ( Á)

Union of events:
For any two events A and B, the Union of events
A B A and B is the set of all elements that are in A or
in B or in both A and B.

Let Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6} and

A={1,3,5} ,
B={1,4,6} .
Shaded region is A ∪B
Then the union of the two sets denoted by

A∪B={1,3,4,5,6} .
Intersection of sets:
For any two events A and B, the intersection of
events A and B is the set of elements that are both
in A and B.

Let Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6} and

A={1,3,5} ,
B={1,4,6} .
Shaded region is A∩B
Then the intersection of the two sets denoted by

A∩B={1} .
Disjoint or mutually exclusive sets:

If A and B be two subsets of Ω , then A and B

A B
are said to be disjoint or mutually exclusive sets if
they have no elements in common. That is, if

A∩B=AB=φ .

Let Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6} and A={1,3,5} ,

A and B are disjoint

B={2,4,6} . Then the union of the two sets

denoted by A∩B=AB=φ .

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 Probability

Sampling with replacement:

If the elements of a sample are drawn randomly one by one and after each draw the element
is returned to the population then the drawing is said to be done with replacement and the
process of having the sample is called random sampling with replacement.

Sampling without replacement:

If the elements of a sample are drawn randomly one by one and after each draw the element
is not returned to the population then the drawing is said to be done without replacement
and the process of having the sample is called random sampling with replacement.

Problem:
A box contains three balls – one red, one blue and one yellow. Consider an experiment that consists
of drawing a ball from the box, replacing it and withdrawing a second ball.
a. What is the sample space of this experiment?
b. What is the event that the first ball drawn is yellow?
c. What is the event that the same ball is drawn twice?
Problem:
Repeat the previous problem when the second ball is drawn without replacement of the first ball.
Problem:
An experiment consists of flipping a coin 3 times and each time noting whether it lands heads or tails.
a. What is the sample space of this experiment?
b. What is the event that tails occur more often than heads?
Problem:
Let S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6 }, A={ 1,3,5 }, B= { 4,6 } and C={ 1,4 } find
i. A∩B ii. B∪C
iii. A ∪ ( B ∩C ) iv. ( A ∪ B )c
Problem:
Two balanced dice, one black and one red are thrown and the number of dots on their upper faces are
noted, let b be the outcomes of the black die and r be the outcomes of the red die. Now answer the
following:
i. List a sample space of the experiment.
ii. What is the probability of throwing a double?

iii. What is the probability that the sum is 5, that is b+r=5 ?

iv. What is the probability that the sum is even?

v. What is the probability that r≤2 or b≤3 ?

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STA 101_Introduction to Statistics I M Shafiqul Kalam (ISK)
Assistant Professor, MNS, BRACU

vi. What is the probability that the number on the red die is at least 4 greater than the number
on the black dice.

Answer:
i. If two balanced dice, one black and one red are thrown and the number of dots on their upper faces
are noted, also if b be the outcomes of the black die and r be the out comes of the red die. Then
the sample space for the given experiment will be as follows:
r  1 2 3 4 5 6
b 
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,6
2 2,1
3
4
5
6 6,1 6,2 6,6

ii. Let the event A = {the two dice shows the same number}
6
P( A )=
= {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}; There fore 36
iii. Let the event B = {The sum of the two dies is 5, that is b+r=5 the two dice shows the same
number}
= {(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1)}
4
P(B )=
There fore 36
iv. Let the event C = {The sum of the two dies is even}
= {(1,1), (1,3), (1,5), (2,2), (2,4), …, … , … ,(6,4), (6,6), }
18
P(C )=
There fore 36
v. Let the event D = {(b,r)| r≤2 or b≤3 }
= {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3),

(3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (5,1), (5,2), (6,1), (6,2)}

24
P( D)=
There fore 36
vi. Let the event E = { r≥4+b } = {(1,5), (1,6), (2,6)}
3
P( E)=
There fore 36
Problem:

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 Probability

A cafeteria offers a three – course meal. One chooses a main course, a starch and a desert. The
possible choices are as follows.
Meal Choices
Main Course Chicken or roast beef
Starch Course Pasta or rice or potatoes
Dessert Ice cream or gelatin or apple pie
An individual is to choose one course from each category.
a. List all the outcomes in the sample space.
b. Let A be the event that ice cream is chosen. List all the outcomes in A.
c. Let B be the event that Chicken is chosen. List all the outcomes in B.
d. List all the outcomes in the event A ∩ B.
e. Let C be the event that rice is chosen. List all the outcomes in C.
f. List all the outcomes in the event A ∩ B∩ C

Problem:
Phenylketonuria is a generic disorder that produces mental retardation. About one child in every
10,000 live births in the United States has Phenylketonuria . what is the probability that the next child
born in a Houston hospital has Phenylketonuria?
Sheldon M Ross, Page 156
Problem:
When typing a five – page manuscript, a certain typist makes
0 errors With probability 0.20
1 errors With probability 0.35
2 errors With probability 0.25
3 errors With probability 0.15
4 or more errors With probability 0.05

If you give such a manuscript to this typist, find the probability that it will contain
a. 3 or fewer errors
b. 2 or fewer errors
c. 0 errors
Sheldon M Ross, Page 157
Answer: 0.95, 0.80 and 0.20

Properties of Probability:
Property 1:
For any event A, the probability of A is a number between 0 and 1. That is,
0 ≤ P (A )≤ 1
Property 2:
The probability of sample S is 1. Symbolically,
P(S)=1
Property 3

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STA 101_Introduction to Statistics I M Shafiqul Kalam (ISK)
Assistant Professor, MNS, BRACU

The probability of disjoint event is equal to the sum of the probabilities of these events. For
instance, if A sample S is 1. Symbolically,
P(S)=1

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 Probability

Rules of probability:
Addition rule:
For any events A and B,

P ( A∪B )=P( A )+P(B )−P( AB)

Note that P( A ∪ B) is the probability of all outcomes

that are either in A or in B. On the other hand,
S
P( A)+ P(B) is the probability of all the outcomes
that are in A plus the Probability of all the outcomes
that are in B. Since any outcome that is in both A and B

is counted twice in P( A)+ P(B) and only once in

P( A ∪ B), it follows that
P( A)+ P(B)=P( A ∪B)+ P ( A ∩B )
A∩B
Subtracting P ( A ∩ B )from both sides of the preceding

Problem:
A certain retail establishment accepts either the American Express or the VISA credit. A total of 22
percent of its customers carry an American Express card, 58 percent carry a VISA credit card, and 14
percent carry both. What is the probability that a customer will have at least one of these cards?
Solution:
Let A denote the event that the customer has an American Express card
Let B denote the event that the customer has a VISA card.
The given information yields
P ( A )=0.22, P ( B )=0.58 P ( A ∩ B )=0.14
By the additive rule, the desired probability P ( A ∪ B ) is
P ( A∪B )=0 . 22+0 .58−0 .14=0. 66
That is, 66 percent of the establishment’s customers carry at least one of the cards that it will accept.
Sheldon M Ross, Page 153

Problem:
For the previous problem determine what proportion of customers has neither an American Express
nor a VISA card?

Problem:
The family picnic scheduled for tomorrow will be postponed it is either cloudy or rainy. The weather
report states that there is a 40 percent chance of rain tomorrow, a 50 percent chance of cloudiness and
a 20 percent chance that it will be both cloudy and rainy. What is the probability that the picnic will
be postponed?
Sheldon M Ross, Page 158

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STA 101_Introduction to Statistics I M Shafiqul Kalam (ISK)
Assistant Professor, MNS, BRACU

Answer: 0.70
Assignment on Probability

1. Three thousand tosses of a certain coin gave 1800 heads. What is the probability of head? Is it classical
or empirical or subjective probability?

2. A box contains 4 red balls, 6 black balls and 2 white balls. What is the probability of drawing a red ball?
Is it classical probability?

3. The director of a nuclear plant feels that the probability of completing the new plant is 0.80 . What
kind of probability is this?

4. A card is drawn randomly from a bridge of deck. What is the probability that it will be i. Queen, ii.
Queen of heart, iii. Heart and iv. Heart or spade?

5. A palmist told Fahim of BRAC University that he has a 10 to 3 chance of getting marry this year. What
is the probability that Fahim will not get married this year?

6. A balanced die is thrown. What is the probability of getting even number of points on the face? ? Is it
classical or empirical or subjective probability?

7. A fair coin is tossed three times. Construct the sample space of the experiment. Hence find: i. A = {At
least one tail}, B = {At most three heads}, C = {One head and two tail}, D = {One tail and two heads}
and E = {Shows the same face}.

8. For problem 7 find the probability corresponding to the event ( A∪B ),( A∪D),( D∩E ) and

(BC ) .

9. Among 24 dieters following a similar routine 10 lost weight, 5 gained weight, and 9 remained the same
weight, if one of these dieters is randomly chosen find the probability that he or she
i. Gained weight
ii. Lost weight
iii. Neither lost nor gained weight

10. Two balanced dice are thrown and the number of dots on their upper faces is noted. Write down the
sample space for the experiment and determine the probability of the following:
i. First die shows odd number and second die show even number.
ii. Outcomes of the first die are less than that of second die.

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 Probability

iii. Find the probability that the sum of the outcome is even number.
iv. Find the probability that the sum of the two outcome is greater than 10.

11. Roll two dice and the number of dots on their upper faces is noted. Write down the sample space for the
experiment and determine the probability of the following events:
i. Event A = {Second die shows a number that is not divisible by 3}.
ii. Event B = {Outcome of the first die is divisible by 3}.

iii. Find P( A∪B )

iv. If the sum of the two values is 8, find the probability that one of the values is 3.
v. Sum of the points on the two dice is 10 or greater if a 5 appears on the first die.

12. A box contains 7 red and 3 black marbles. Three marbles are drawn from the box one after another. Find
the probability that the first two are red and the third is black.

13. A box contains 75 marbles, 35 of them are blue and 25 of these blue marbles are swirled. The rest of
them are red and 30 of the red ones are swirled. The marbles that are not swirled are clear. What is the
probability of drawing:
i. A blue marbles from urn
ii. A clear marble from the urn
iii. A blue, swirled marble
iv. A red clear marble
v. A swirled marble

13. One card is to be selected at random from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that the
selected card is
i. An Ace
ii. Not an ace
iii. A spade
iv. The ace of spade
Sheldon M Ross, Page 163
14. The following table lists the 10 countries with the highest production of meat.
Meat Production Meat Production
Country Country
(Thousands of metric tons) (Thousands of metric tons)
China 20136 Brazil 3003
United States 17564 Argentina 2951
Russia 12698 Britain 2440
Germany 6395 Italy 2413
France 3853 Australia 2373

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STA 101_Introduction to Statistics I M Shafiqul Kalam (ISK)
Assistant Professor, MNS, BRACU

Suppose a world Health Organization committee is formed to discuss the Long – term ramification of
producing such quantities of meat. Suppose further that it consists of one representative from each of these
countries. If the chair of this committee is then randomly chosen, find the probability that this person will be
from a country whose production of meat (in thousands of metric tons)
i. Exceeds 10000
ii. Is under 3500
iii. Is between 4000 and 6000
iv. Is less than 2000
Sheldon M Ross, Page 163
15. If from a standard deck of cards a card is drawn then determine the probability of the following events:
i. A seven
ii. A black card
iii. An ace or a king
iv. A black 2 or a black 3
v. A red face card (king, queen or jack)

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