Sugaronline Editorial 20160812

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Editorial – 12th August 2016

Just make it stop!


By Meghan Sapp

India is trying to tame its sugar prices The biggest concern is the direct impact that
by potentially ending sugar futures sugar futures have on ex-mill prices, as
trading. futures trading are intended to be a price
discovery mechanism. The challenge
There’s an old joke about a patient who goes therefore is the lack of liquidity in the market
to the doctor and explains that every time he where price shifts can happen very quickly
hits himself on the head, it hurts. So the without really indicating a shortage in the
doctor looks at him strangely and says, “Then national sugar market or the need for prices to
stop hitting yourself.” jump or slide at a moment’s notice. And
that’s exactly why the government wants to
Apparently that is the prescription the Indian nip the problem in the bud. They’ve done it
government wants to prescribe to ease rising before with garbanzos, another major staple
sugar prices: to ban sugar futures trading. whose futures were suspended last month
after raising trading margins 75% failed to
For some, that may sound like an easy fix to a dissuade speculators.
problem but for others it whiffs of
government interference in markets and a Because this is India, there’s always a little
hindrance for the sugar industry in its twist that makes one smirk. In this case, it’s
attempts at price discovery. The country is the fact that district administration officials
feeling the global deficit at home, thanks to sold sugar confiscated from mills for failure
Maharashtra losing 40% of its production due to pay farmer dues using the NCDEX, getting
to on-going drought and there’s likelihood much higher prices than they would in local
that imports aren’t too far off in the distant markets. With those funds, they were about to
future. pay farmers dues directly much faster than
otherwise, making everyone happy. Except
Prices are rising quickly, with Mumbai retail those who then had to pay higher prices at the
prices up 48% on the year while Delhi prices millgate, perhaps.
are up 45% on the year so it’s no wonder the
government is looking for ways to keep the But rather than halting sugar trading as the
masses from stirring up into a riot over high government proposes, why not look at the
sugar prices. underlying problem that is the lack of
liquidity? Why is there so little volume being
Looking at the global market, sugar futures traded on the market in the first place? Could
are indeed higher and the bull run is expected the contract terms use adjusting? As a top
to keep going until the deficit swings back sugar consumer and producer globally, it
into a surplus but prices, currently hovering makes sense that it should have a functioning
around 20 cents per pound, are heading in the sugar futures contract that would have the
direction of the 50 cents or more per kilo liquidity required to ensure proper price
found in Indian retail markets. There is little discovery. Getting NCDEX to get a contract
place for the government to hide: sugar prices in place that promotes and encourages use of
are going to continue rising with NCDEX the contract should and could be in
sugar futures trading or without it. everyone’s interest.

© Sugaronline, 2016 www.sugaronline.com 1

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