Digital Marketing: Avi Goldfarb, Catherine Tucker
Digital Marketing: Avi Goldfarb, Catherine Tucker
Digital Marketing: Avi Goldfarb, Catherine Tucker
Digital marketing✩
a Rotman
Avi Goldfarba,b,∗ , Catherine Tuckerc,b
5
School of Management, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
b NBER, Cambridge, MA, United States
c MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, MA, United States
∗ Corresponding author: e-mail address: [email protected]
Contents
1 Reduction in consumer search costs and marketing ...................................... 261
1.1 Pricing: Are prices and price dispersion lower online? ....................... 261
1.2 Placement: How do low search costs affect channel relationships? ....... 263
1.3 Product: How do low search costs affect product assortment? ............. 264
1.4 Promotion: How do low search costs affect advertising?..................... 265
2 The replication costs of digital goods is zero .............................................. 267
2.1 Pricing: How can non-rival digital goods be priced profitably?.............. 267
2.2 Placement: How do digital channels – some of which are illegal – affect
the ability of information good producers to distribute profitably? ......... 268
2.3 Product: What are the motivations for providing digital products given
their non-excludability? ........................................................... 268
2.4 Promotion: What is the role of aggregators in promoting digital goods? ... 269
3 Lower transportation costs..................................................................... 269
3.1 Placement: Does channel structure still matter if transportation costs
are near zero? ...................................................................... 270
3.2 Product: How do low transportation costs affect product variety?.......... 271
3.3 Pricing: Does pricing flexibility increase because transportation costs
are near zero? ...................................................................... 272
3.4 Promotion: What is the role of location in online promotion? ............... 272
4 Lower tracking costs............................................................................ 273
4.1 Promotion: How do low tracking costs affect advertising? ................... 273
4.2 Pricing: Do lower tracking costs enable novel forms of price
discrimination?..................................................................... 276
4.3 Product: How do markets where the customer’s data is the ‘product’
lead to privacy concerns?......................................................... 277
4.4 Placement: How do lower tracking costs affect channel management? ... 278
5 Reduction in verification costs ................................................................ 278
5.1 Pricing: How willingness to pay is bolstered by reputation mechanisms .. 278
5.2 Product: Is a product’s ‘rating’ now an integral product feature? .......... 279
✩ This builds heavily on our Journal of Economic Literature paper, ‘Digital Economics.’
5.3 Placement: How can channels reduce reputation system failures? ........ 280
5.4 Promotion: Can verification lead to discrimination in how goods are
promoted? .......................................................................... 280
6 Conclusions ...................................................................................... 281
References............................................................................................ 282
work from the consumer behavior literature or methodology-focused work from the
marketing statistics literature. We will also not emphasize studies in the marketing
strategy literature that document correlations which are of managerial importance,
rather than measuring the causal effects of digital technologies.
Second, as a counterpoint to the notion that there are exogenously given differ-
ences in seller quality that formed the basis of the early economics literature – the
marketing literature has emphasized the extent to which search can be influenced
by the seller. In other words, in marketing we recognize that search costs are en-
dogenous and a reflection of a firm’s marketing strategy. Honka (2014) and De los
Santos et al. (2012) provide surprisingly large estimates of the cost of each click in
the online context. By forcing customers to conduct an extra click or two, sellers can
increase the relative cost of search in areas where they are weak. For example, a high-
quality, high-price firm might make it easy to compare product quality but difficult
to find prices. Chu et al. (2008) show that price sensitivity is lower in online gro-
cery compared to offline grocery. Fradkin (2017) has shown a similar phenomenon
in the context of Airbnb. A number of scholars have shown that such endogenous
increases in search costs can be sustained in equilibrium (Ellison and Ellison, 2009)
and profitable (Hossain and Morgan, 2006; Dinerstein et al., 2018; Moshary et al.,
2017).
Ellison and Ellison (2009) showed how firms can obfuscate prices. They empha-
size a setting where search costs should be very low: An online price comparison
website. They show that retailers that display prices on that website emphasize their
relatively low priced products. Then, when consumers click the link and arrive at
the retailer’s own website, they are shown offers for higher prices and higher mar-
gin goods. Thus, price dispersion is low at the price comparison website where
search costs are low, but dispersion is high where comparison is more difficult. More
recently, Moshary et al. (2017) demonstrate the effectiveness of similar price ob-
fuscation in the context of a massive field experiment at StubHub. The experiment
compared purchase prices and demand estimates when the service fees for using
StubHub were shown early in the search process versus immediately before pur-
chase. The experiment showed that customers were less sensitive to the same fee
when it was shown late in the process. The company deliberately made some price
information more difficult to find, and this increased quantity demanded at the same
price.
Another area where search costs are endogenous to firm marketing strategy re-
flects the use of devices. Firms recognize that tablets and mobile devices, with smaller
screens, may facilitate this process of restricting the information that consumers see
initially (Xu et al., 2017; Ghose et al., 2013). A developing area of marketing is
trying to understand, given this different environment, how best to present price in-
formation to consumers to maximize profits in a mobile environment (Andrews et al.,
2015; Fong et al., 2015).
The early online price dispersion literature and the more recent literature demon-
strating endogenous online search costs show where a close study of marketing
contexts has been able to add nuance to a puzzle noted in the economics literature,
by exploring how firms can increase search costs for consumers in a digital environ-
ment.
1 Reduction in consumer search costs and marketing 263
online and offline advertisers to find customers. Kalyanam et al. (2017) show how
search engine ads affect offline stores. Even within search engine advertising, search
costs vary. Ghose et al. (2012) demonstrate the importance of rank in search out-
comes. Higher ranked products get purchased more. Narayanan and Kalyanam (2015)
and Jeziorski and Moorthy (2017) both document that rank matters in search engine
advertising in particular, but that this effect varies across advertisers and contexts.
Despite the widespread use of search advertising, there is some question about
whether search advertising is effective at all. Li et al. (2016) discuss how industry
attributes consumer purchases to particular advertising. Search engine advertising
appears most effective because people who click on search ads are very likely to end
up purchasing and because the click on the search ad is often the ‘last click’ before
purchase. Many industry models treat this last click as the most valuable and hence
search engine advertising is seen as particularly effective. Li et al. (2016) argue that
the industry models overestimate the effectiveness of search ads.
Blake et al. (2015) describe why the effectiveness of search advertising may be
overestimated. They emphasize the importance of the counterfactual situation where
the ad did not appear. If the search engine user would click the algorithmic link in-
stead of the advertisement, then the advertiser would receive the same result for free.
The paper shows the result of a field experiment conducted by eBay, in which eBay
stopped search engine advertising in a randomly selected set of local markets in the
United States. Generally, eBay sales did not fall in markets without search engine
advertising compared to markets with search engine advertising. In the absence of
search ads, it appears that users clicked the algorithmic links and purchased at roughly
the same rate. This was particularly true of the branded keyword search term ‘eBay’.
In other words, careful analysis of the counterfactual suggested that search engine ad-
vertising generally did not work (except in a small number of specialized situations).
This research led eBay to substantially reduce its search engine advertising.
Simonov et al. (2018a) revisit the effectiveness of search engine advertising and
focus on advertisements for the branded keyword, but for less prominent advertis-
ers than eBay. Using data from search results at Bing’s search engine, they replicate
the result that search engine advertising is relatively ineffective for very well known
brands. They then demonstrate that search engine advertising is effective for less well
known brands, particularly for those that do not show up high in the algorithmic list-
ings. Overall, these papers have shown that understanding the search process – for
example through examining heterogeneity in the counterfactual options when search
advertising is unavailable – is key to understanding when advertising serves to lower
search costs. Coviello et al. (2017) also find that search advertising is effective for
a less well-known brand. Simonov et al. (2018b) show that competitive advertising
provides a further benefit of search engine advertising: If competitors are bidding
on a keyword (even if that keyword is a brand name), then there can be a benefit
to paying to search engine advertising even for advertisers who appear as the top
algorithmic link.
In other words, Blake et al. (2015), Simonov et al. (2018a), and Simonov et al.
(2018b) together demonstrate what might seem obvious ex post: Search advertis-
2 The replication costs of digital goods is zero 267
ing meaningfully lowers search costs for products that are relatively difficult to find
through other means. This finding is nevertheless important. Search advertising is a
multi-billion dollar industry and many marketers appear to have been mis-attributing
sales to the search advertising channel.
These three papers provide a coherent picture of how search engine advertising
works. The open questions relate to how changes in the nature of search advertising
– and the addition of new search channels such as mobile devices and personal assis-
tants – might affect this picture. As we move off the larger screens into more limited
bandwidth devices, then search costs may rise and even strong brands may benefit
from search advertising.
Tools and questions from economics – such as thinking about the right counter-
factual – have led to an extensive and important literature on search engines that spans
marketing and economics. Even though search engines are so recent, the speed with
which this literature has sprung up reflects the growing importance of search engines
and other search mechanisms in the digital economy.
or buy a digital movie. The paper shows that in the zero marginal cost digital context,
dynamic considerations play an important role.
The marketing literature has long being focused on tactical and practical questions
about how to price (Rao, 1984). Therefore, it is not surprising that scholars at the
boundary between marketing and economics have been exploring the new frontier
question about how to price non-rival digital goods.
2.3 Product: What are the motivations for providing digital products
given their non-excludability?
Intellectual property laws exist because they can generate incentives to innovate and
create new products. The non-rival nature of digital goods leads to widespread viola-
3 Lower transportation costs 269
tion of copyright and questions about what constitutes fair use. Many people consume
digital products without paying for them. While the owners of copyrighted works are
harmed, the provision of a product at zero price increases consumer surplus and elim-
inates deadweight loss. It also allows for valuable derivative works. In a static model,
this is welfare-enhancing. Consumers benefit more than producers are hurt.
Therefore, the key question with respect to digitization and copyright is with
respect to the creation of new products. Waldfogel (2012) provides evidence that
suggests that the quality of music has not fallen since Napster began facilitating free
online copying in 1999. While digitization did reduce incentives to produce because
of online copying, the costs of production and distribution fell as well. For distribu-
tion, low marginal costs of reproduction meant that early-stage artists could distribute
their music widely and get known, even without support from a music label or pub-
lisher (Waldfogel, 2016; Waldfogel and Reimers, 2015). The title of the new book
‘Digital Renaissance’ (Waldfogel, 2018) summarizes a decade of his research em-
phasizing that digitization has led to more and better quality entertainment despite
increased copying, largely because of reduced production and distribution costs. In
our view, the argument Waldfogel presents is convincing. The challenge for market-
ing scholars is to extend this literature by understanding better the profitable provision
of goods which serve as complements to digital goods.
of traveling to an offline retailer are reduced, even if an online retailer still needs to
ship a physical product.
ment has relied on aggregate correlations (with the exception of a small number of
expensive experiments such as Lodish et al., 1995).
Perhaps the clearest result of the increased ability to run advertising experiments
because of better tracking is the finding that correlational studies of advertising ef-
fectiveness are deeply flawed. For example, Lewis et al. (2011) use data from banner
ads on Yahoo to show the existence of a type of selection bias that they label ‘activity
bias’. This occurs because users who are online at the time an advertisement is shown
are disproportionately likely to undertake other online activities, including those used
as outcome measures in advertising effectiveness studies. They show activity bias by
comparing a randomized field experiment to correlational individual-level analysis.
Measured advertising effectiveness is much lower in the experimental setting. One
interpretation of this result would be to treat correlational analysis as an upper bound
on the effectiveness of advertising. Gordon et al. (2019) demonstrate that this is not
correct, and instead it is best to treat correlational analysis as having no useful infor-
mation for measuring advertising effectiveness in the context they study. They exam-
ine a series of advertising field experiments on Facebook. Consistent with Lewis et
al. (2011), they show that correlational analysis fails to measure advertising effective-
ness properly. Importantly, they show that sometimes correlational analysis underes-
timates the effectiveness of an advertisement. Schwartz et al. (2017) demonstrate the
usefulness of reframing experimental design as a multi-armed bandit problem.
Measurement challenges extend beyond the need to run experiments. Ideally, ad-
vertising effectiveness would be measured based on the increase in long term profits
caused by advertising. Given the challenge in measuring long term profits, research
has focused on various proxies for advertising success. For example, in measuring
the effectiveness of banner advertising, Goldfarb and Tucker (2011c) used data from
thousands of online advertising campaigns and randomized advertising into treatment
and control groups. The analysis delivered on the promise of better measurement, but
the outcome measure was far from a measure of long term profits. In order to get
a systematically comparable outcome measure across many campaigns, the paper
used the stated purchase intent of people who took a survey after having randomly
allocated into seeing the advertisement or seeing a public service announcement.
Advertising effectiveness was measured as the difference in stated purchase intent
between the treatment and control groups. This is a limited measure of effectiveness
in at least two ways. First, only a small fraction of those who saw the ads (whether
treatment or control) are likely to take the survey and so the measure is biased to
the type of people who take online surveys. Second, purchase intent is different from
sales (which in turn is different from long term profits).
In our view, for the purpose of comparing the effectiveness of different types of
campaigns, this measure worked well. We were able to show that contextually tar-
geted advertising increases purchase intent compared to other kinds of advertising,
and that obtrusive advertising works better than plain advertising. Furthermore, we
found that ads that were both targeted and obtrusive lifted purchase intent less than
ads that were either targeted or obtrusive but not both. At the same time, this mea-
4 Lower tracking costs 275
sure would not be useful for measuring the return on advertising investment or for
determining the efficient allocation of advertising spending.
To address questions like these, subsequent research has built new tools for mea-
suring actual sales. Lewis and Reiley (2014) link online ads to offline sales using
internal data from Yahoo! and a department store. The paper linked online user pro-
files to the loyalty program of the department store using email addresses. With this
measure, they ran a field experiment on 1.6 million users that showed that online ad-
vertising increases offline sales in the department store. While still not a measure of
long term profits, this outcome measure is more directly related to the true outcome of
interest. This came at the cost of challenges in comparing across types of campaigns
and across categories.
This study was possible because the research was conducted by scholars working
in industry. Such industry research has been important in developing better mea-
sures of outcomes, as well as more effective experimentation. Other examples include
Lewis and Nguyen (2015), who show spillovers from display advertising to con-
sumer search; Johnson et al. (2017a), who provide a substantially improved method
for identifying the control group in the relevant counterfactual to firms that choose
not to advertise; and Johnson et al. (2017a), who examine hundreds of online display
ad campaigns to show that they have a positive effect on average.
Even in the presence of experiments and reliable outcome measures, Lewis and
Rao (2015) show that advertising effects are relatively low powered. In other words,
the effect of seeing one banner ad once on an eventual purchase is small. It is mean-
ingful and can deliver a positive return on investment, but demonstrating that requires
a large number of observations. Johnson et al. (2017b) show that better controls can
increase the power of the estimated effects, though this effect is modest. In addi-
tion, they found that careful experimental design and sample selection can lead to a
substantial boost in power.
In general, given these findings, advancing the literature poses some challenges
for marketing scholars. This is because it appears increasingly necessary, given the
high variance of advertising effectiveness and small effect sizes, to work with mar-
keting platforms to calibrate effects. This need is magnified because of the use of
advertising algorithms in these platforms which make understanding a counterfactual
problematic (Eckles et al., 2018). It is unlikely that advertising platforms would en-
courage researchers to study newer issues facing their platforms such as algorithmic
bias (Lambrecht and Tucker, 2018) or the spread of misinformation through advertis-
ing (Chiou and Tucker, 2018).
This is important because some of the biggest research questions that are open in
digital marketing communications are no longer simply about advertising effective-
ness. Instead, there are now large policy issues about the consequences of the ability
to track and target consumers in this way. An example of the challenges facing the
online targeting policy debate, is the extent to which regulators should be worried
about advertising that is deceptive or distortionary. Though there has been much dis-
cussion about the actions of firms such as Cambridge Analytica that use Facebook
data to target political ads, as of yet there has been limited discussion in marketing
276 CHAPTER 5 Digital marketing
about the issues of deceptive uses of targeting. Again, we expect this will be a fruitful
avenue of research.
consumer welfare is ambiguous and likely depends on the particular way in which
advertising enters the utility function.
when increased privacy protection will generate strategic advantage. We expect that
one such opportunity will be regulations, such as the EU General Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR) which came into effect in May 2018. It was significant as the
first privacy regulation which has had a truly global impact and therefore affects not
just firms within the EU but across the world.
nisms can reduce the importance of offline brands. In particular, the paper demon-
strates that high online ratings lead to higher sales in offline independent hotels. Luca
(2016) finds a similar result for restaurants.
There are many ways that a platform might regulate the behavior of its users. This
includes systems that ban users who behave undesirably. However, the majority of
platforms lean on online ratings systems. In such systems, past buyers and sellers
post ratings for future market participants to see. There is a large literature on the im-
portance of eBay’s online rating system to its success, as well as a variety of papers
that explore potential changes and improvements to that system and their impact on
prices, market outcomes, and willingness to pay (Resnick and Zeckhauser, 2002; Ba
and Pavlou, 2002; Lucking-Reiley et al., 2007; Cabral and Hortacsu, 2010; Hui et al.,
2016). For example, Hui et al. (2016) demonstrate that eBay’s reputation system is
effective in reducing bad behavior on the part of sellers, but it needs to be combined
with eBay’s ability to punish the worst behavior in order to create a successful mar-
ketplace on which small sellers can thrive. Perhaps the key theme of this literature is
that online reputation mechanisms increase willingness to pay and sometimes enable
markets that otherwise would not exist.
6 Conclusions
Digital marketing is inherently different to offline marketing due to a reduction of five
categories of costs: Search, reproduction, transportation, tracking, and verification.
In defining the scope of this article, we drew boundaries. We focus on under-
standing the impact of the technology on marketing using an economic perspec-
tive. Therefore, we did not discuss much work written in marketing that focuses
on methodology, such as the statistical modeling in digital environments literature
(Johnson et al., 2004; Moe and Schweidel, 2012; Netzer et al., 2012). We also did not
detail the consumer behavior literature on the effect of digital environments (Berger
and Milkman, 2012; Castelo et al., 2015).
This overview highlights that changes to marketing that result from the change
of costs inherent in the digital context are not as obvious as initial economic models
may imply. Instead, as may be expected, the complexities of both firm and consumer
behavior have led to less than predictable outcomes. It is these less predictable out-
comes which have allowed marketing contexts to inform the economics literature on
the likely effects of digitization outside of marketing.
Going forward, we anticipate the most influential work to fall into one of three
categories. First, there are still many opportunities to unpack the existing models
and identify new complexities in how the drop in search, reproduction, transporta-
tion, tracking, and verification costs affect various aspects of marketing. Many recent
papers fall in this category, including Blake et al. (2015), Simonov et al. (2018a),
Hollenbeck (2018), and Farronato and Fradkin (2018). In the above discussion, we
have highlighted some areas that we see as particularly important topics for future
research.
Second, as policies change, new business models arise, and new technologies
diffuse, there will be opportunities to understand these changes in light of existing
models. Recent papers of this type include Bart et al. (2014), Miller and Tucker
(2018), Lambrecht and Tucker (2018), and Johnson et al. (2017c).
Third, some of the changes brought by digitization and other advances in informa-
tion technology will require recognition of different types of cost changes. Just as the
early internet literature emphasized search, replication, and transportation costs, and
only later were tracking and verification costs recognized as important consequences,
we anticipate technological change to lead to the application of other well-established
282 CHAPTER 5 Digital marketing
models into new contexts. For example, one recent hypothesis is that recent advances
in machine learning can be framed as a drop in the cost of prediction which can be
modeled as a reduction in uncertainty (Agrawal et al., 2018).
For each of these categories, economic theory plays a fundamental role. Search
theory provided much of the initial impetus for the digital marketing literature. It
provided hypotheses on prices, price dispersion, and product variety. Some of these
hypotheses were supported, but others were not. In turn, this generated new models
that could explain the data, and the cycle continued. Models of reproduction costs,
transportation, tracking, and verification played similar roles. This led to a much
deeper understanding of the consequences of digitization on marketing.
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