Project MGT PDF
Project MGT PDF
Project concept
The term “project” has a wider meaning. A project is accomplished by performing a set of activities. The
construction of a house is accomplished by performing the set of activities. Another aspect of “project” is
the non-routine nature of activities. Each project is unique in the sense that the activities of a project are
unique and non-routine.
A project consumes resources. The resources required for completing a project are man, material, money &
time. The nature of resources is that are limited are scarce. Thus we can define a project as an organized
programme of predetermined group of activities that are non-routine in nature and that must be completed
using the available resources within the given time limit.
According to Harison, A project can be defined as a non-routine, non-repetive, one-off undertaking,
normally with discrete time, financial and technical performance goals.
A project is initiated to achieve a mission-whatever the mission may be. A project is completed as soon as
the mission is fulfilled. The project lives between these two cut-off points and therefore, this time-span is
known as project life cycle.
A project start from scratch with a definite mission, generate activities involving a variety of human and non
human resources all directed towards fulfillment of the mission and stops once the mission is fulfilled.
Project Management Institute of USA has good definition for it. “A project, according to the institute, is a
one-shot, time-limited, goal directed, major undertaking, requiring the commitment of varied skills and
resources.”
It also describes a project as “a combination of human and non-human resources pooled together in a
temporary organization to achieve a specific purpose.” The purpose and the set of activities which can active
that purposes are distinguish one project from another.
Identification of project in separate way R.L. Martino described “A project is some overall task which has a
definable beginning and a definable end. It consists of a number of related and interdependent activities, all
of which utilize resources and upon which there are imposed with internal and external conditions.”
A project is generally defined as a programme of work to bring about a beneficial change and which has:-
• a start and an end
• a multi-disciplinary team brought together for the project
• constraints of cost, time and quality
• a scope of work that is unique and involves uncertainty
Examples of a project:-
• The development and introduction of a new services.
• The development of a management information system.
• The introduction of an improvement to an existing process.
• Setting up a new care initiative.
• The creation of a large tender or the preparation of a response to it.
• The production of a new customer newsletter, catalogue or Web site.
Above the discussion we can say that, a project is a set o activities perform in a sequence to achieve mission
or missions. Activities are goal oriented, non-repeated, non-routine task, definable beginning and end and
have definable resources in relation to cost of project is termed as project.
Features of Project
Every course of action has some distinct features that help to separate from other course of action.
Similarly projects have some distinctive features that are why to know about project clearly & deeply.
1. Specific purpose (s):
Every project is purpose oriented. It is never possible to form a project without specific purpose (s). When
multi-purposes can be satisfied through project, it is called multi-purpose project.
The lifetime of every project depends on the specific purpose. When purpose can be satisfied through a
project, then project becomes successful end point. To make specific purpose is not sufficient to meet the
Classification of Project:
There is no boundary to classify project. Every day we hear different types of project like agricultural
project, industrial project, construction and health project. On the basis of these project types, project can be
classified in the following manner:
1. On the basis of national income and socio-economic activities: on the basis of national income and
socio-economic activities project can be classify on different categories-
a. Industrial project: establishment of new industry, introducing new wings of established
industry, innovation of new product are categorized in industrial project.
b. Agricultural project: Invention of High Yielding verities of seeds, research for enhancing
yielding capacities of seeds, introduction of technology based production system in
agriculture are examples of agricultural project.
c. Education project: program for enhancing quality and rate of education, compulsory
2. On the basis of production-materials: On the basis of production materials project can be classified into
two categories-
A. Capital intensive project: Capital intensive project requires huge investment as well as
modern technology. This is especial feature of project of developed countries.
B. Labor intensive project: Labor intensive project employs large number of people. This is a
distinguishing feature of project of developing country like Bangladesh.
3. On the basis of partnership: Project partnerships represent collaborative partnerships between different
countries. On the basis of partnership of project, project can be classified into two groups-
I. Single owned project: single owned project is characterized by internal source of finance
and often use of indigenous technology.
II. Partnership project: Partnership project is characterized by internal and external sources of
finance and use of technology granted form foreign countries or international organizations.
Government identifies and selects different types of project for the socio-economic development of a
country. Above mentioned different projects than classified as per different determinates. These are
discussed in below-
Determinat-01 Project Outcomes: On the basis of project’s inflows, project can be classified into three
categories-
a) X Type Project: Productive and revenue earning project is called X type project. This types
of project is self-financing in nature, produce and distribute commodities for earn revenue.
After meeting administrative and selling expenses, it remains profit. Expense and revenue of
that type of project can easily measure. Different types of industrial project are termed as X
type project.
b) Y Type Project: Productive but not revenue generating is called Y type project. This type of
project generates facilities for other project so that they can earn revenue. Direct advantage of
that type of project can easily measure and called upon a Y type project. For example
irrigation project.
c) Z Type Project: Project who renders service is called Z type project. Outcomes of this project
generally non measurable. Education, training, hospital, road, bridge, culvert, weather
forecasting examples of Z type project.
Determinant-02 Preference on allocation of resources: On the basis of national urgency and importance,
project can be classified into two categories.
A. Core project: Project which is selected for priority basis on the basis of national importance
and socio-economic development is called core project. Core project includes-
• Approved project, revised and non approved project and project nominated by project
evaluation committee.
• Projects whose have available internal and foreign inflow of fund.
• Partially completed project.
• X type and Z type project.
Determinant-03 Stage of project: On the basis of project formulation and implementation, project can be
classified into four categories-
Project Cycle:
Project cycle of Warran C. Baum:
From the view point of world Bank C. Baum classify project cycle into 6 categories. Based on formal
activities six stages involves a range from project identification to project evaluation. Project cycle
developed by Baum is illustrated in below:
1. Project identification:
2. Project
preparation
6. Project
evaluation
3. Project
appraisal
5. Project
implementation
and supervision
4. Project
negotiation
Figure: project cycle of Baum
2. Project preparation:
Project preparation means preparation of project design in all volume o financial, finance, social,
institutional. One of the stags of project preparation is to conduct feasibility study.
3. Project Appraisal:
It is a process of decision making for selecting a project by which it is possible to ensure maximum
utilization of minimum resources. The purposes of this stage are the determination of projects commercial
gain, economic effectiveness and social acceptability.
4. Project Negotiation:
In respect of aid oriented project through negotiation aid provider and aid receiver reach in consent to take
proper steps for the success of the project. Subsequently such consent turns into legal obligation that is
disclosed in debt deed.
5. Project implementation and supervision:
Project implementation stage includes construction to project structure. Steady political commitment easy
design, proper project preparation and meaningful management etc. are required for successful
implementation of project.
6. Project evaluation:
Project evaluation is called the last stage and in many cases it is called post project complementation
observation project evaluation is done to analyze and judge the outcome that has achieved in compassion to
the project’s goal. Its effectiveness is not only applicable to the completed project but also equally effective
for the running project.
9. Project completion or
termination 3. Project design
8. Project supervision
monitoring and control 4. Project appraisal
7. Project
implementation and
5. Project selection
operation
negotiation and
approval
6. Project
activation and
organization
1) Initiation: In this first stage, the scope of the project is defined along with the approach to be taken to
deliver the desired outputs. The project manager is appointed and in turn, he selects the team members based
on their skills and experience. The most common tools or methodologies used in the initiation stage are
Project Charter, Business Plan, Project Framework (or Overview), Business Case Justification, and
Milestones Reviews.
2) Planning: The second phase should include a detailed identification and assignment of each task until the
end of the project. It should also include a risk analysis and a definition of criteria for the successful
completion of each deliverable. The governance process is defined, stake holders identified and reporting
frequency and channels agreed. The most common tools or methodologies used in the planning stage are
Business Plan and Milestones Reviews.
4) Closure: In this last stage, the project manager must ensure that the project is brought to its proper
completion. The closure phase is characterized by a written formal project review report containing the
following components: a formal acceptance of the final product by the client, Weighted Critical
Measurements (matching the initial requirements specified by the client with the final delivered product),
rewarding the team, a list of lessons learned, releasing project resources, and a formal project closure
notification to higher management. No special tool or methodology is needed during the closure phase.
A typical methodology would involve a number of stages and activities which occur at different parts of the
life cycle.
• The preparation stage involves the project manager and sponsor in the preparation and approval of an
outline project justification, plan and project budget.
• The startup stage involves the selection and briefing of the project team and some discussion on the
roles and organization.
• The Feasibility or Research stage will establish whether the project is feasible and establish the risks
and key success measures. Unless the organization undertakes research or new product development,
feasibility often means ‘can this process or technology be cost effectively applied to the organization
or department’, rather than is it generally feasible. It may include the identification of external
resources such as specialist consultants or product and service providers who may wish to tender
goods, software or services for the project.
The work will be undertaken by the team (which may include external consultants) and co-ordinate by the
project manager. This team should consist of the key users or main beneficiaries of the beneficial change the
project is delivering (hence the term ‘project deliverables’ or ‘products’. They may be line managers,
supervisors or staff with particular skills. They must be the best people available and never those ‘who can
be spared’ because they have difficult or awkward personalities. The object is to build a team that is better
than the sum of the individuals.
• Defining and planning the project in more detail by writing and publishing a full definition of the
project and determining a project plan. This work is undertaken by the team and co-ordinate by the
project manager. Both should be communicated widely to ensure maximum understanding of the
project’s objectives by all staff that will be affected by the project. Now is the time to ensure their
input to minimize surprises at a later stage.
• The implementation stage involves the execution of the project as agreed, whilst carefully
monitoring progress and managing changes. The team may need to be expanded at this stage to
Md. Hasebur Rahman, Lecturer, Department of Business Administration Page 8
Pabna Science and Technology University [email protected]
PROJECT MANAGEMENT PSTU
resource all the tasks. If so, it is essential they are fully briefed and feel ‘included’ as part of the
team.
When project management is not an integrated part of an organization’s culture it is a very good idea to
undertake some team building events that allow the team to work together in a competitive but non-
threatening environment. As people get used to forming and dissolving teams the need for and style of such
team building events will be decided by the team.
• The close down stage involves the satisfactory delivery (satisfactory to the project ‘customer’ that is)
of the products or services that achieve the beneficial gain. A project review should be held to learn
the lessons. These should be formally documented and published ‘warts and all’.
Definition of project management
A project requires a special approach to ensure the success of the project success of a project means:
(1) It must get completed.
(2) It must be completed within budget.
(3) It must get completed within allocated time.
(4) It must perform to satisfaction.
Project management meets these demands.
There are two concepts associated with project management. One is project then another is management.
Management means planning, organizing, coordinating, directing, motivating and controlling activities for
accomplishing desired goat. Project is goal oriented, no repetitive, having definable life cycle and cost and
resources are scarce. A project contains three components. Such as:
A. Operations: that done in a project.
B. Resources: Use to capital, men, materials and time for accomplishing task.
C. Conditions: Consideration of environment, constraints and conditions for performing activities.
Project management means planning, organizing coordinating and controlling of project with considering
above conditions.
According to Chase and Aquilano “Project management can be defined as the planning, directing and
controlling of resources (People, equipment, material) to meet the technical, cost and time constraints of the
project.
According to B.B. Goel “Project management is an organized venture or managing projects that involves
scientific application of modern tools and techniques in Planning, financing, implementing, Monitoring,
controlling and Coordinating unique activities of tasks to produce desirable outputs in consonance with
predetermined objectives within the constraints of time, cost, quantity and quality.”
So project management is the application of managerial knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project
activities in order to meet predetermined objectives or goals.
Secondly:
Almost every organization has organizational structure where the position of employee, interactive relation
is shown of an organization. But project is not permanent than organization, for this reason it is not possible
to stand permanent organizational structure for project. The nature of project structure is matrix type.
Thirdly:
Internal environment of a project is different from internal environment of parent organization, because
variety of people are gathered different interests in a project, So that conflicting environment arise in respect
of leadership and accountability which affect growth of a project, so that directing, ordering quite different
formal system. Thus communication among different persons involves in a project maintain through
informal system.
Fourthly:
Project is not parent organization. It is an objective base specific time programme. A project is completed as
soon as the mission is fulfilled. Failure in any stage a project could impact of a project.
So, we can say project is different from parent organization thus organizational structure management
technique, special communication system, and nature of project should be executed by specialized manager.
For the following reasons project management is very much attractive for project manager.
Decision making is essentially a part of project management. Today project manager finds a lot of
project management tools such as programme evaluation and review technique (PERT), critical path
method (CPM), Qualitative Analysis method, Decision support systems (DSS) project quality control
techniques etc. These tools provide addition of information to the manager. However he uses his
judgment to take decision based on this information.
Project is best controlled by monitoring the program trends of time, cost and performance. This
information may not be available to the project manager if the trend parameters are derived from a
number of different functional sources.
Timely response on project performance is essential for effective project control. This project
planning and control system can adjust the content and frequently of this feed back to address the
needs of the project, while the corporate systems may be flexible.
The planning and control system enable the project manager to develop procedures and work
instruction which are tailored to the specific needs of the projects.
The critical path method (CPM) calculates the activities start and finish dates, together with the
critical activities which determine the duration of the project delaying a critical activity will delay the
project.
Sector programme/Scheme
Project
CHAPTER- 02
Project Formulation:
“Project formulation refers to a series of steps to be taken to convert an idea or aspiration into a feasible plan
of action”.-B.B. Goel.
“Project formulation is one of the basic techniques through which planning can be changed from an
institutional base to an institutional and rational base”.-G. Myrdal.
Project formulation is a pre-project evaluation. Through project appraisal entrepreneur evaluate economic,
technical and social feasibility study.
Formulation of project is a complex, risky and intellectual work. No person can do it alone. It is a combine
effort of specialists from various fields, such as economics, engineering, finance, management and
environment science. It project is not select properly and fail in evaluating than it is impossible to reach
project goal.
2. Technical analysis:
Project formulation stage analyses various supplementary power of project such as location of project,
source of labor and raw materials, transportation system, analysis of produced goods & services in respect of
demand and supply. Technical analysis can be discussed into two categories.
2.1. Input analysis; and
2.2. Demand & supply analysis.
2.1. Input analysis:
Where the proposed project will be located, whatever the human and material resources are required,
from which material to be supplied in project are considered in input analysis. Now we discuss in
details.
b) Size and cost of land: Cost of land as well as availability of land should be considered.
c) Raw materials: Location of raw materials, availability of raw materials as well as price of raw
materials should be considered.
f) Transport facilities: Necessary transportation facilities are essentials for project success.
g) Incentives & concessions: It should be considered that proposed project will receive incentive &
concession from government.
i) Climate & natural hazard consideration: Whether temperature & humidity will affect
effectiveness and existence of project should be considered.
Importance and necessary of a project depend on necessity and demand of produced product &
service of that project. Demand & supply analysis attempted to identify whether the propose project
will supply qualities products & service to satisfy customer. Demand & supply analysis require
relevant information regarding buyer, customer and seller. Methods of demand & supply analysis are
as follows:
1. Survey of Buyers Intention;
2. Composite of sales-force opinion;
3. Expert’s opinion;
4. Market test Method; and
5. Statistical Method.
3. Feasibility study: Feasibility study compare economic, technical, commercial, managerial financial
advantages of proposed project in project formulation stage following feasibility study are conducted:
(A) Economic feasibility study: Economic feasibility study consider project contribution on
national economy. In case of governmental project economic feasibility study is conducted on the
basis following yards stick.
a) Net national income add;
b) Employment effect;
c) Distribution effect;
d) Foreign exchange effect;
e) Infrastructural complication;
f) Environmental complication.
(B) Financial feasibility study: Main purpose of financial feasibility study is to determine sources
of project fund, amount of fund required, out flow of project return and compare over all income
and expenditure of project. Financial feasibility study considers following aspect-
1) Capital cost;
2) Working capital requirement;
3) Estimates of operating costs;
4) Taxes/Depreciation.
Capital Budgeting:
Long term investment represents sizable outlays of funds that commit a firm to some course of action.
Consequently, the firm needs procedures to analyze and properly select its long term investment. It must be
able to measure cash flows and apply appropriate decision n techniques. At time passes, fixed assets may
become obsolete at this point financial decision may be required. Capital budgeting is the process of
evaluating and selecting long term investments that are consistent with the firm’s goal of maximizing
owner wealth. Firms typically make a variety of long term investments but the most common for the
manufacturing firm is in fixed assets, which include property (land), plant, and equipment. These assets,
often referred to as earning assets, generally provide the basis for the firms earning power and value.
(1) Pay Back Period (PBP): Pay back periods are commonly used to evaluate proposed investments. The
pay back period is the amount of time required for the firm to recover it’s initial investment in a
project, as calculated from cash inflows. In case of an annuity, pay back period can be found by dividing
the initial investment by the annual cash inflows. For a stream of cash inflows, the yearly cash inflows
must be accumulated until the initial investment is recovered. Al though popular, the pay back period is
generally viewed as an unsophisticated capital budgeting technique, because it does not explicitly
consider time value of money.
When pay back period is used to make accept-reject decision the flowing decision criteria are to be
followed:
• If the pay back period is less than the maximum acceptable pay back period, accept the project.
• If the pay back period is greater than the maximum acceptable pay back period, reject the project.
(2) Net Present Value (NPV): Net present value (NPV) gives explicit consideration to the time value of
money; so it is considered a sophisticated capital budgeting technique. It is a sophisticated capital
budgeting technique, found by subtracting a projects initial investment from the present value of its cash
inflows discounted at a rate equal to the firms cost of capital.
When NPV is used to make accept reject decisions, the decision criteria are as follows:
• If the NPV is greater than Tk. 0, accept the project.
• If the NPV is less than Tk. 0, reject the project.
BCR =
(4) Internal Rate of return (IRR): Internal rate of return (IRR) is probably the most widely used
sophisticated capital budgeting technique. Internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate that equates
the (NPV) of an investment opportunity with Tk. 0 (Because present value of cash investment equal to
zero)
When IRR is used to make accept reject decisions, the decision criteria are as follow:
• If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, accept the project.
• If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, reject the project.
These criteria guarantee that the firm earns at least its required return. Such an outcome should determine or
enhance the market value of the firm and therefore the wealth of its owner
PBP =
NCO = Net cash outlay or Total investment
NCB = Net cash benefit or Annual return
Solution:
We know, pay back period in case of annuity cash inflow as-
PBP =
=
= 5 years (Ans.) Where
NCO = Net cash outlay
NCB = Net cash benefit
Calculation table
Year Cash inflow Cumulative cash
Inflow
1 Tk 2000 Tk 2000
2 6000 8000
3 =A 11000 19000 = C
4 4200 = D 23200
5 7000 30200
PBP = 3 +
=3+
= 3+0.24
= 3.24 years. (Answer)
Where,
F = Future single received
i = Discount rate or Interest rate
N = Number of interest period
Suppose, F = Tk. 1.0, i = 10%, N = 1
PV =
=
= 0.909
We, know,
NPV = Present value of return − Present value of investment
= Tk 1,15,470 – 1,00,000
= Tk 15,470 (answer.)
Comment: Since NPV is positive, project ‘T’ is feasible project. So investment decision can be made.
BCE =
= 1.15470
Comment: Since BCR is 1.15470 (more than 1) so project is feasible, so investment decision can be
undertaken. Tk 1 investment results in 1.15470 received.
Problem-4: Project-‘K’
NCO = Tk. 100000, total benefits = 175000, project life = 5 years, discount rate = 10%. Calculate BCR.
Total investment and benefit receive given below:
Year Total cost/investment Total benefit
1 Tk 50000
2 50000
3 Tk 40000
4 60000
5 75000
BCR =
= 1.36 (Approximately)
Comment: Tk 1 investment results in 1.36 benefits received so investment decision can be made.
IRR =
=
=
= 8+ 1.69
= 9.69 (Answer)
Comment: If rate of return of that project is 9.69 or more than project is acceptable.
Ratio analysis involves the methods of calculating and interpret financial ration in order to assess the firms
performance and status. The inputs to ratio analysis are the firm’s income statement and balance for the
period to be examined. Ratio analysis is used to compare perms performance and status to that of other firm
or to itself over time. Financial ratios can be divided into four basic group or categories: liquidity ratios;
actively ratios; debt ratios and profitability ratios.
Profitability ratios: Measure return
Liquidity, activity and debt ratios: Measure risk
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4. Project appraisal:
Project appraisal is a summary of all feasibility studies. Project appraisal is a stage of decision, where
investment decision is made.
“Project appraisal is a tool to examine as to whether in the given situation, it would be most realistic, reliable
and reasonable one to commit resources or not”- B. B. Goal.
“Project appraisal is the process of evaluating the silent features of feasibility analysis, techno-economic
analysis, design and network analysis, input analysis, financial analysis, and social cost benefit analysis of a
project- R.K. Motto.
Areas feasibility
Basic Questions
study
(4)Commercial 1. Is project having dependable transportation for supplying input to the project?
feasibility study 2. Is it possible to ensure proper supply of materials to project?
3. Is step to be taken to measure market demand of project output? Whether
channel of distribution is selected or not?
(8)Social 1. What change can bring by proposed project on attitude or behavior of people?
feasibility study 2. What attitude of people holds regarding proposed project?
3. How beneficiary group can be involved in project in different stages of project?
CHAPTER- 03
Project Market and Demand Analysis
Forecast:
Forecasting means assessment of future event based on experience. According to William J. Stevenson “A
statement about the future value of a variable of interest”. According to Lee J. Krajewshi and Larry Ritzman
“A forecast is a reproduction of future events used for planning purposes”.
Forecasting is essential for valuable managerial decision. Forecasting is a basis of long term planning of an
organization. Forecast also basis of cost control and budgetary control. Forecasting enables organization to
produce the required quantities at the right time and arrange well in advance for the various factors of
production.
Law of demand: The demand for a commodity depends on its price other things remaining the same, when
the price of a commodity increases at a particular time, its demand decreases, again when price falls demand
increases. A relationship can therefore be observed between price and quantity demanded. This very
relationship of dependence of demand on the price of a commodity is called law of demand.
Collection of Demand
secondary forecasting
information
Conduct of Market
market survey planning
5. Demand forecasting:
After gathering information about various aspects of the market demand from primary and secondary
sources, an attempt may be made to esteem ate future demand.
6. Market planning:
To enable the product to reach a desired lever of market perform a suitable marketing plan should be
developed. Broadly, it cover pricing, distribution, promotion and, service.
Determinants of demand:
The demand for a product or its sales depends upon number of factors. Number of factors that determinate
demands of a particular product are as follows:
1. Price of particular product: Demand for a particular product depends upon price of its. There is
an adverse relation between price and the quantity demanded, lower the price the greater is the
quantity demanded and vice versa.
2. Price of a substitute and completive product: If the price of a commodity remains same the
demand for this commodity may change if the prices of substitutes and complementary goods
change. For example, gur is a substitute of sugar. Assume that the price of sugar increases, in that
case if the price of gur remain unchanged, its demand will increase.
3. Income of buyers: Demand of a particular product also depends upon income of demanders. If
the purchasing power of money increases or real income increases than demand of a particular
product will go up. Again demand for a commodity will not increase with a fall in price if the
income of the consumer decreases substantially.
5. Population: Composition of the population or size of the population which affects demand for
certain commodities or service.
6. Season of the year: It is obvious that demand for a commodity must change with the change in
season. In winter, there is a greater demand for worm clothing for certain types of torics and for
coal of fuel. In summer, there is a great demand for electric fans room coolers and cooling drinks
etc.
7. Availability of credit: Availability of credit facilities in terms of payment and service increase
buyer’s ability to purchase a particular product.
9. Expected future in market: Expected future trend in market also determinate demand of a
particular product. If price of a product may seem to increase in future than demand for that
product may increase and vice versa.
10. Change in consumer taste: If with the change in habits and taste, consumer begin to take coffee
instead of tea and even if two price of tea the demand for tea to that person will not increase.
11. Needs and preferences: If is quite obvious that if a consumer dustups market liquidity prudence,
his demand for goods will decrease, because he prefers to keep with him ready cash instead of
buying things.
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is an essential condition of business because business decisions are concerned with future which
cannot be forecasted with 100% accuracy. Uncertainty arises due to the ever-changing environment within
which a business operates. Natural calamities, changes in demand and prices, improvement in technology,
change in Governmental policies etc. are a few examples of uncertainties which create risk in business. F. H.
Knight defined uncertainty is a kind of risk which cannot be insured against and is incalculable.
When the outcome of the decision is not known with certainty, a manager faces a decision making problem
either condition of risk or condition of uncertainty.
The difference between risk and uncertainty has been made clear in the following discussion:
Point of Distinction Risk Uncertainty
1. Condition A decision is made under risk when a Uncertainty exists when a decision
manager can make a list of all possible maker cannot list all possible outcomes
outcomes associated with a decision and or cannot assign probabilities to the
assign a possibility of occurrence to various outcomes.
each of the outcomes.
2. Measurability Risk can be measured. Uncertainty cannot be measured.
3. Reduction Risk can be reduced by insurance Uncertainty cannot be reduced by
principle insurance principle.
4. Probability Risk denotes a positive probability of Uncertainty does not imply any value
something bad happening. judgment or ranking of possible
outcomes.
5. Example A manager decides to spend $1000 on a A pharmaceutical company decides to
magazine ad believing there are three spend $3 million on R&D of new
possible outcomes for the ad: a 20% medication for high blood pressure the
chance, a 60% chance, a 80% chance of pay off from the research and
increasing sales. development depends on Governments
new health policy. Government may
impose price regulation or not. In such
a condition, decision is made under
uncertainty.
1. Stand alone risk: Assessment of risk on individual project point of view, suppose uncertainty of
achieving 10% profit on project “A” is called stand alone risk.
2. Corporate risk: Assessment of risk on industry point of view. Here risk is determined as per
industry on which certain project is included. This types of risk also termed as firm risk.
3. Systematic risk: Risk on market of project changes in demand, supply, price fluctuations changes
fashion are example of systematic risk. It also termed as market risk.
On the basis of source of risk, risk can be classified into two major types-
1. Internal risk
2. External risk
A. Internal Risk: Risk arises from project itself. Manager have substantial control over this type of
risk. It can further divided into two types-
a. Market Risk: Market risk associate with market changes in demand, supply, price
fluctuations changes fashion are example of systematic risk .Causes of market risk are –
i. Improper assessment of demand
ii. Change in customer change
iii. Strong market competitors product
b. Technical Risk: Technical risk created due to time, cost and failure in achieving quality
standard of output.
B. External Risk : Management have little control over external risk. Main causes of external risk are
as follows-
Range: Range difference between maximum and minimum outcomes. The greater difference (range) creates
greater risk.
Range ( Rg) = R h – Ri
Where,
Rg = Range of distribution.
Rh = Highest possible value.
Ri = Lowest possible value.
Mean absolute Deviation (MAD): Mean absolute deviation is obtained by calculating the absolute
deviations of each variable from expected value of the distribution.
n
MAD = ∑
i =1
Pi Ri - R
Where,
MAD = Mean absolute deviation
R i = ith possible value of the variable
R = Expected value of the distribution
P i = Probability of ith possible value.
Variance: Average squared deviations of each variable from the expected value of the distribution.
Where,
σ 2 = Variance
R i = ith possible value of the variable
R = Expected value of the distribution.
P i = Probability of ith possible value.
Standard deviation: Standard deviation is obtained by calculating the square root of the average squared
deviations of each variable from the expected value of the distribution.
Where,
S.D ( σ ) = Standard deviation
Ri = ith possible value of the variable
R = Expected value of the distribution
Pi = Probability of ith possible value
Problem
Project -A Project-B
Outcome Probability Outcome Probability
1100 0.2 900 0.2
700 0.5 600 0.5
600 0.3 200 0.3
Which Project is acceptable?
Solution:
Project A
Range:
We know,
Range = Rg = Highest outcome- Lowest outcome
= 1100- 600
= 500
We know,
n
R = ∑
i =1
(outcome x Probability)
Now,
MAD = 0.2 x 1100-750 + 0.5 x 700-750 + 0.3x 600-750
= 0.2 x 350 + 0.5 x 50 + 0.3 x 150
= 70+25+45
= 140
Calculation table
Pi Ri Pi Ri (Ri- R) (Ri-R) Pi(Ri-R)
0.2 1100 220 350 122500 24500
0.5 700 350 -50 2500 1250
0.3 600 150 -150 22500 6750
n
R =750
∑
i =1
P i (R i - R ) 2 =3250
So Variance ( σ ) = 32500
2
Standard deviation:
We know,
S.D ( σ ) = σ 2
= 32500
= 180
Coefficient of Variance:
We know,
σ
C.V =
R
180
=
750
= 0.24
Project B
Range ( R g ) :
We know ,
Range = R g = Highest outcome- Lowest outcome
= 900 – 200
= 700
Mean absolute deviation (MAD) :
We know,
n
MAD = ∑
i =1
Pi Ri - R
So Variance ( σ ) = 62400
2
Standard deviation:
We know,
S.D ( σ ) = σ2
= 62400
= 250
Coefficient of variance:
We know,
σ
C.V=
R
250
=
540
= 0.46
Summary of results
Techniques Project A Project B
Range 500 700
Mean absolute deviation (MAD) 140 204
Variance ( σ 2 ) 3200 62400
Standard deviation (SD) 1800 250
Coefficient of variance (C.V) 0.24 0.46
Comment: Project A is accepted because it is lower risky than project B (as per solution obtained)
Scheduling
Scheduling
Scheduling is a plan express in time frame. It is conversion of project action plan into an operating time
table.
According to Punmias and Khandelwal “Schedule is the determination of time required for execution of
each operation and the time order in which each operation is to be carried out to meet the project
objectives”.
Scheduling express future activities to be performed a sequence. Scheduling express start and end of
particular activity. The amount of materials and human force are required in different stages of project are
stated in scheduling.
For effective administration and controlling, scheduling is one of the most important matters of
management. When, what activities will be started, when it will be completed can be known from
scheduling. Project manager acquire money and material resources as per time table of scheduling. On the
basis of scheduling control mechanism is developed to control overall activities at different slack time of
scheduling.
Feature of scheduling
On the basis of above discussion feature of scheduling can be listed as under-
1. Activities involved in a project: Scheduling express different activities are to be performed in a
project.
2. Relation among the activities: Scheduling makes relationship among the activities involves in a
project.
3. Expected start and finished time of each activity: Scheduling defines each activity in terms of
start and finish time.
4. Duration of a project: Scheduling is used to calculate duration of a project. Critical path indicate
duration of project.
5. Resource requirement: Scheduling indicates resources are required in different activities at
different time.
Stages in scheduling
Dennis Lock has suggested seven specific steps for project scheduling are as under-
1. Determination of schedule objectives: At first stage the schedule maker has to determine specific
activities are to be performed to meet schedule objectives.
2. Division of project activities: The entire project has to make divide into some easily supervised and
controllable proportion.
3. Setting order of activities: Once the project activities are divided, than make a rationale order of
each activity involved.
4. Time planning: In this stage, allocate time for each activity involved.
This technique was originated by H.L Gant, a management specialist contemporary to F.W Taylor when the
world war-I was in situation. Bar Chart is mostly known as Gant Chart.
It is a symbolic technique of preparing project schedule. The project activities are presented here with the
help of parallel stick on time axis. The left terminal of the stick represents the starting time and the right
terminal represents the ending time. The length of the stick indicates the total time required to finish the
project.
Activities start
Activities end
Example
2. Network Technique
Once a project is selected, the focus shifts to its implementation. This involves completion of numerous
activities (project components). The activities of a project have interrelationship arising from physical,
technical and other considerations. For proper planning, scheduling and control of activities of a project,
given their interrelationships and constraints on the availability of resources, Network Technique have been
found quite useful; includes two in special:
• CPM (Critical Path Method) and
• PERT (Performance Evaluation Review Technique).
It is noted that it was developed in America (1950 - 1960) to support the composition of proper planning and
scheduling for large scale critical and complex projects.
If the above natures are present in a project, it is very much fit to use Network Technique.
Symbols used in Network Technique
1. Arrow
2. Circle
3. Doted Arrow
4. Path
Project Preceding
activities activities
A
C A
Arrow diagram
D B
E B
F C
G D,E
Node Diagram
Problem-1
Activity Immediate Time
predecessor ( In days)
activity
A - 6
B A 9
C A 8
D A 12
E B 11
F C,D 7
G E,F 12
H D 14
I G,H 9
Requirements
1. Draw a network diagram.
2. Indicate critical path.
3. If activity f requires 9 days instead of 7 days. Do you think that it would change the critical path?
Solution:
Requirement-1
Requirement-3
If the activity f requires 9 days instead of 7 days than length of each alternative path will be-
Path-1. A-B-E-G-I = 6+9+11+12+9 = 47 days
Path-2. A-C-F-G-I = 6+8+9+12+9 = 44 days
Path-3. A-D-Dummy-F-G-I = 6+12+0+9+12+9 = 48 days
Path-4. A-D-H-I = 6+12+14+9 =41 days
From above calculation we see that, if F activity requires 9 days instead of 7 days than critical path is
changed. New critical path is path-3(A-D-Dummy-F-G-I) and its length is 48 days.
a+4m+b
Expected time =
6
The weight of most likely time is given four times more than optimistic or pessimistic time.
Expected time (TE), in really, in the overage of three time estimation. The formula of determining
expected time is based on the “Beta Distribution”.
2
b−a
Formula σ = 2
Where, σ 2 =variance
6
b = pessimistic time
a=optimistic time
∑σ
2
cp = Variance of critical path
Problem-2
Activity Optimistic time (A) Most Likely Time(m) Pessimistic Time(b) Immediate
(in days) (in days) (in days) predecessor
activity
A 10 22 22 -
B 20 20 20 -
C 4 10 16 -
D 2 14 32 A
E 8 8 20 B,C
F 8 14 20 B,C
G 4 4 4 B,C
H 2 12 16 C
I 6 16 38 G,H
J 2 8 14 D,E
Requirements
1. Draw a network diagram.
2. Calculate expected time.
3. Indicate critical path.
4. What is the variance of critical path?
5. What is the probability of completing the project within 50 days?
Solution:
Requirement-1
Dummy
10 + 22 X 4 + 22 8 + 14 X 4 + 20
TE A = =20 TE F = =14
6 6
20 + 20 X 4 + 20 4 + 4X 4 + 4
TE B = =20 TE G = =04
6 6
4 + 10 X 4 + 16 2 + 12 X 4 + 16
TE C = =10 TE H = =11
6 6
2 + 15 X 4 + 32 6 + 16 X 4 + 38
TE D = =15 TE I = =18
6 6
8 + 8 X 4 + 20 2 + 8X 4 + 4
TE E = =10 TE J = =08
6 6
Requirement-3
We know, critical path is the largest path among alternative paths of network diagram. Network diagram has
eight alternative paths. Among these paths path-1 (A-D-J) is the highest length of alternative path. So path
A-D-J is critical path and its duration is 43 days and duration of project is 43 days.
Requirement-4
Variance of critical path
2
b−a
We know, variance ( σ ) = 2
where, b = pessimistic time and a=optimistic time
6
Alternative path comprises activities A, D and J. So we have to calculate variance of activities A,D and J.
σ 2 A = 22 − 10 4
6
σ 2 D = 32 − 2 25
6
σ 2 J = 14 − 2 4
6
∑σ
2
So variance of critical path is cp = σ 2 A + σ 2 D+ σ 2 J = 4+25+4=33
From the chart (page 85), when value of Z is 1.2 than probability is 88.49%. So probability of completing
project within 50 days is 88.49 %( time estimation is reliable).
PERT CPM
It is an event oriented approach It is an activity oriented approach.
PERT is established on possibility theory and The possibility theory is not used in CPM. Time
three times estimation is used for each activity. estimation is used for each activity.
There is no opportunity for impeding the project But, in CPM, the relation time and expenditure
activities is PERT technique. In it, the relation project and there is an opportunity for impeding the
between of time and expenditure is not seen. project activities.
PERT technique is used more in that project in CPM is used in that project in where the risk and
where risk and time related uncertainty is more. time related uncertainty is less and stagnation
Generally, the use of PERT technique is seen in technique are used. The use of CPM is seen more in
research. constructive activities.
It is time based It is cost based
It averages time It does not average time
It is probabilistic model It is a deterministic model.
MONITORING
Monitoring
Monitoring means watching and checking and checking something over a period of time. In case of project,
monitoring means watching the project progress to ensure whether project activities are going according to
plan or not.
It provides a feedback through which necessary adjustment are made in the work plan. So monitoring is
defined as a management functions to check performance against pre-determined plans.
According to B.B Goel – “Monitoring involves watching the progress against time, resources and
performance, schedules during the execution of the project and identifying lagging areas requiring timely
attention and action”.
So, monitoring means periodic checking of progress in order to ensure timely completion of the project. On
the other hand, M. Thgagarajan’s view “Monitoring means periodic checking of progress of works against
the targets laid down in order to ensure timely completion of the project’’.
So, monitoring is the process of observation of the activities of project that is advancing according to
planning, schedules, budget and fixed standard.
So monitoring is considered as an important task of project management. It has the less possibility to
achieve the project goal, if it is not monitored the activities of project during the period of implementation.
Monitoring is the coordination of activities of formulating recommendation for solving problem regarding
supervision, result orientation involved in implementing the project.
Scope of monitoring
Monitoring is the periodic checking of the progress against target. It is very important task of project. As it
helps to complete the project the timely, scope of monitoring depends on the purpose and nature of
monitoring.
2. Qualitative & Quantitative: If the project target is expressed in terms of quality and quantity then
the task of monitoring is to inspect project advancement based on standard & target.
3. X-Type: In case of X-type projects (productive & revenue) earning. The monitor observes whether
project can obtain production target as not as well as whether it carry expected revenues or not.
4. Capital Assets: Another task including monitoring is to look after whether capital assets used in
project mentioned or not.
5. Investment in one sector: Inspect whether or not the capital invested in one sector has been used in
another sector.
Benefits of Monitoring
There are some benefits of monitoring these are as follows:
1. Determine those projects are implementing according to goal or not.
2. Identify problem and recommendation of solution.
3. Step of implementation can be determined.
4. It is possible to provide information to concerned authority to observing the condition of project
implementation.
Level of monitoring
Level of monitoring consists of project level, agency level, ministry level and national level these are
explained in below.
1. Project level: In this project level stage the director of the project monitors all the functions of a
project.
3. Ministry level: We know that the government has several ministries and each ministry have some
specific project. To run these projects they have to prepare different planning cells. These planning
cells can monitor the all functions.
4. National level: There are some national projects for the development of a country to monitor these
projects, the government has different departments. For example- Implementation Monitoring and
evaluation Department (IMED).
Methods of monitoring
Monitoring is the periodic checking of the progress against target. It is very important task of project as it
helps to complete the project timely. However, different methods of monitoring are as follows:
1. Project status report: It is a short report where present condition is stated at a fixed of a project.
Title project number of estimated cost, project start; scheduling etc is included in that report. Color
code is used, here color code represent the weak points of project where management is badly
needed.
2. Project schedule chart: In this method schedule is prepared to count time and that is followed
properly. It is totally time based. It is intensive chart of important directing activities. It also indicates
feasible time of ending projects. Elaboration work schedule is prepared of project activities on the
basis of this chart.
3. Project financial status report: It is one of the methods of important reports. Financial position of
project whether it is going according to budget and time. It time is needed more from a fixed time
that badly affect to the project. So these aspects are known from this method.
4. Photographs of physical progress: Photographs are used as a method for observing the
advancement of construction project. Here, picture description is shown of physical progress. It is
possible whether advancement of project is satisfactory or not according to planning cost and time.
5. Project inspection: In this method, project authority inspects the advancement of project directly
without depending on supplied report. After inspection of project by the inspector groups, a report is
submitted at fixed rules or column to the concern authority.
1. Inspection: The success of monitoring sometimes may be hampered for the lack of proper
inspection. Groups not individual perform the inspection. Thus it discloses an approximate result.
2. Practical: The overall monitoring process depends on some projection ideas rather than practical.
This fails to explain the cause and effect scientifically.
3. Coordination: The success of monitoring may be hampered for lack of proper coordination. A
sound effective coordination is required for a successful monitoring.
4. Technical knowledge: Sometimes the persons related to monitoring may have not adequate
technical knowledge of monitoring. Most of them have the theoretical knowledge. And we know the
theoretical knowledge is helpful but not so dependable and useful without proper technical
knowledge.
Since the success of a project in somewhat depends on its proper monitoring so monitoring is much more
important. In order to offer a successful monitoring, the suitable method should be chosen and its
impediment should be overcome. So in that perspective the concern authority should conduct or ensure
proper monitoring.
Project Implementation
Project implementation
Project implementation means execution of project plan as per project schedule. Project planning determines
project activities. What will be cost of project, amount of resources are required and number of workforces
are required to complete a project. Project schedule determines series of activities to be carried out for
completing a project. Project implementation means implementation of project activities as per schedule of
project planning.
Main objectives of effective implementation of project are completion of project with in time allocate and
within budget allocate with due conformation to requirement.
Selecting a competent project manager is very much significant matter. A project manager should have
many qualities for the successful implementation of project. Such as consciousness about the environment of
project and parent organization, mentality to accept the modern management concept, adaptation with the
changing environment of the project, effective communication and capability to motivate others etc. That is
why some organization likes to employ an experienced employee of parent organization as a project
manager.
(c) Materials and Equipments: It has been considered that a single world unit or several
projects. The requirements of each materials and equipment type are simply listed as a function of time
period. It is an excellent guide. For early, rough project planning. It is also a first step in attempting to
reduce excessive demands or certain resources, regardless of the specific technique used to reduce the
demands. In this stage technique is used to reduce the demands. In these stage materials equipments is to
collect on the basis of schedule. So the project must be finished by a certain time, using as little resource and
without exceeding some specific level of resource usage as possible.
If the above mentioned instructions are followed properly, the feasibility of project implementation will
definitely increase.