Proceedings of the 9th APTE Conference

6th - 8th August 2014, Mount Lavinia Hotel, Sri Lanka

DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO PREDICT PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE FOR
ALKUFRAH REGION IN LIBYA

Hassan Awadat Salem Djordje Uzelac

PhD Student Teaching Professor
Department of Civil Engineering Department of Civil Engineering
Novi Sad University Novi Sad University
Novi Sad, Serbia Novi Sad, Serbia
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

Zagorka Lozanov Crvenkovic

Full professor
Department of Mathematics and Informatics
Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad University
Novi Sad, Serbia
Email: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Asphalt pavements form an integral part of any transportation system. The structural capacity of the
hot mix asphalt concrete layers depends on many factors including its temperature. Moreover,
temperature can be a major contributor to several types of distress. Therefore, temperature is a
significant factor that affects the performance and life span of a pavement. The Libyan road network
expanded at a phenomenal pace from approximately 10,000 km of paved roads in 1980 to more 34,000
km in 2010, Al kufrah region is located on the southern east of Libya at latitude (24°17'N) in the
desert of Libya. With the recent SHRP and LTTP research findings, it was necessary to investigate the
applicability of the models developed from these research studies to Al kufrah region’s environmental
conditions and more generally to the rest Libya desert reigns. This paper presents the research
undertaken to develop models to predict high and low asphalt pavement temperatures in Al koufa
region. A pavement monitoring station was set-up at the Al kufrah airport to monitor air, pavement
temperatures in different depth, wind speed and solar radiation. Data were collected for 365 days.
Daily minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded. A regression analysis was used to develop
the minimum and maximum pavement temperature models, using air temperature, wind speed and
solar radiation. This paper presents a new model for predicting maximum and minimum surface
pavement temperature based on data collected by installed pavement monitoring station set-up at the
Al kufrah airport.
Keywords: Pavement temperature, SHRP, LTPP, Asphalt concrete, Al kufrah

1. INTRODUCTION

Asphalt pavements form an integral part of any transportation system. A significant factor that affects
the performance and life span of a pavement is the influence of temperature. Temperature can
contribute to certain common types of asphalt pavement distresses such as permanent deformation or
rutting (typically associated with high temperature environments), bleeding, and thermal cracking
(associated with low temperature environments). The Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP)
established the Long Term Pavement Monitoring Program (LTPP) program in 1987 to support a broad
range of pavement performance analyses leading to improved engineering tools to design, construct,
and manage pavements Diefenderfer, et al. (2002).
The Seasonal Monitoring Program (SMP) was established as an element of LTPP in 1991 to measure
and evaluate the effects of temperature and moisture variations on pavement performance and validate

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the available models (Mohesni, 1998; Diefenderfer, et al. 2002). From the initial SHRP testing and
SMP data, several pavement temperature models were developed to assist in the proper selection of the
asphalt binder performance grade (Mohesni, 1998; Mohesni and Symons, 1998a; Mohesni and
Symons, 1998b; Lukanen, 1998; Diefenderfer, et al. 2002). Solaimanian and Kennedy (1993)
proposed an analytical model based on the theory of heat and energy transfer. Shao et al. (1997) also
developed a procedure based on heat transfer theory to estimate pavement temperatures. Regression
models based on other sets of data were developed (Bosscher et al. 1998; Marshall et al. 2001).
Asimulation model was developed. to calculate temperatures during summer conditions based on the
heat transfer models developed by Solaimanian and Kennedy (Hermansson, 2000 and 2001;
Diefenderfer, et al. 2002).
Al-Abdul Wahhab et al. (1994) conducted a study in two regions in Saudi Arabia to manually measure
pavement temperatures in different pavement sections. The study concluded that the extreme pavement
temperatures in arid environment ranged between 3 and 72°C, while in coastal areas, the temperature
ranged between 4 and 65°C. In another study, Al-Abdul Wahhab et al. (1997) recommended five
performance graded binder zones for the whole Gulf area. The study also proposed modification of the
currently used binders to suite the proposed grades.
Libya as well as the Desert area, in general, possesses a different environment from that of the North
America and Gulf area. The applicability of the recent SHRP and LTPP developments in the US to
Libya's or the Desert area's environmental conditions needed to be evaluated. This paper presents the
research undertaken to develop models to predict high and low asphalt pavement temperatures in
Al kufrah region..

A pavement monitoring station was established at the Al kufrah airport to monitor air, pavement
temperatures, wind speed and solar radiation figure 1 shown the Libya roads network and Al kufrah
location. Data was collected for 365 days. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded.
A regression analysis was used to develop the low pavement temperature model. A stepwise regression
was used to develop high temperature models using air temperature, solar radiation, and duration of
solar radiation as independent variables. The instrumentation used is described and collected data are
presented. The developed models were compared with the SHRP and LTPP models.

Al Kufrah

Figure 1: Libyan road network and Al kufrah location

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2. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE MONITORING STATION

A monitoring station was set-up to collect data on air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation and
pavement temperatures at various depths. The enclosure was mounted on an instrumentation tower.
The data logger was operated by a radiation solar battery. The following section describes the
installation and sensor locations.

2.1. Installation of Station

Since the total thickness of pavement layers are 34cm, it was decided to install thermocouples in the
lower portion of asphalt layers and use temperature probe in the upper portion. In the lower portion,
thermocouples were embedded at the surface of AC, and at 20, 80, 140 mm down to the AC layer. A
digital thermocouple probe was inserted in each hole for measurement. The air temperature and
pavement surface temperature were obtained using an infrared temperature gun. Figure 1 shows the
schematic of temperature measurement layout. All temperature data were recorded at 15-minute. A test
area was selected for the station installation inside a newly runway at the Al kufrah airport.

3. DATA ANALYSIS

The temperature data used in analysis were collected in the period from 15rd of May 2012 to
15th of May 2013, at Al kufrah airport. The temperatures of the air and pavement at four different
depth were registered each 15 seconds, as well as the wind speed and solar radiation. Collected data
were used to investigate the different variability patterns between air and pavement temperatures, and
to develop the models for predicting maximal and minimal daily pavement temperatures. Maximum
and minimum daily temperatures of the air and pavement at four different depths were extracted for
each day of observed period. Cumulative solar radiation was calculated for each day. Based on these
data, using regression analysis, models for maximum and minimum daily temperatures were obtained.

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3.1. Air and pavement temperature characteristics

Prior to discussing the temperature models, a brief summary of the air and
pavement temperature data is presented. In tables 1 and 2 the descriptive statistics for maximal and
minimal temperatures for Al kufrah airport are given, including the mean, 95% confidence interval
(CI), minimum, maximum, standard deviation (St.Dev) and standard error (St.Err).

Table 1: Al kufrah airport maximal daily temperatures

Max temp Mean -95%CI 95%CI Median Min Max St.Dev St.Err
Air 35.74 35.01 36.47 38.01 19.22 49.18 7.10 0.37
Surface 52.31 1.22 53.39 5.31 24.69 70.12 10.52 0.55
3cm 47.69 46.68 8.69 50.37 26.06 64.61 9.74 0.51
8cm 43.35 42.43 44.28 45.37 23.49 56.02 8.95 0.47
15cm 37.75 36.91 38.58 39.22 20.43 9.53 8.12 0.43

Table 2: Al kufrah airport minimal daily temperatures

Min temp Mean -95%CI 95%CI Median Min Max St.Dev St.Err
Air 15.06 14.28 15.85 15.76 0.91 28.46 7.60 0.40
Surface 16.85 16.09 17.60 18.16 4.20 29.85 7.33 0.38
3cm 19.41 18.66 20.15 20.63 7.21 31.54 7.26 0.38
8cm 22.29 21.53 23.05 23.73 10.44 33.96 7.39 0.39
15cm 23.92 23.16 24.68 24.68 12.62 34.83 7.38 0.39

It is to be noted that the lowest pavement temperatures recorded in Al kufrah airport are well
above the minimum pavement temperatures typically encountered in the US. This is due to the desert
climate which does not have subfreezing temperatures.
Figure 3 presents the box plot of maximal daily temperatures at Al kufrah airport, for air
temperature and four different layers, and figure 4 presents the box plot of minimal daily temperatures
at Al kufrah airport. Figures show different behavior of maximum and minimum daily temperatures.
While maximum surface temperature values (mean=52.31) are higher than maximum air temperature
(mean=35.75), minimum surface temperature distribution (mean=16.85) is similar to the air temperature
(mean=16.85). Thus, the maximum pavement temperature is recorded at the surface and is generally
warmer than maximum air temperature, and the minimum pavement temperature is recorded at the
surface but is generally warmer than minimum air temperature. Maximum temperatures of deeper
layers are lower than the maximum surface temperatures, but minimum temperatures of layers increase
with the depth from the surface
Box & Whisker Plot of maximal daily temperatures at Al
koufra airport
80

70 Mean
Mean±SD
60
Mean±1,96*SD
50

40

30

20

10
Air Surface 3 cm 8 cm 15 cm

Figure 3: Maximum temperature distributions

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For maximal temperatures, temperature of the surface layer is the most variable, (St.Dev=10.52) and air
temperature has lowest variation (7.10). Variations of minimal temperatures are approximately the
same.

Box & Whisker Plot of daily minimal temperatures at Al

koufra airport
40

35

30

25

20

15

10
Mean
5
Mean±SD
0 Mean±1,96*SD
-5
Air Surface 3 cm 8 cm 15 cm
Figure 4: Minimum daily temperature distributions

Line Plot of of temparatures and solar radiation

Al koufra, 30th and 31th of Decembar 2012
40
Air
35 Surface
3 cm
8 cm
30
15 cm
Solar radiation
25

20

15

10

0
1 17 33 49 65 81 97 113 129 145 161 177 193
9 25 41 57 73 89 105 121 137 153 169 185

Figure 5: Air, pavement temperatures and solar radiation at Al kufrah airport on 30 and 31st th

December 2012.

Figures 5 and 6 present the variation of air and pavement temperatures at four different depths
as well as solar radiation, with the time of day, at Al kufrah airport. In figure 5 are data obtained for
two days during the cold season: the 30th and 31th of December, 2012, while figure 6 shows this
variation for two days during the hot season: the 5th and 6th of Jun, 2012.
In Figure 5 it can be seen that there is a noticeable time lag between the maximum air
temperature and maximum pavement temperature. The pavement heats more slowly than the air. Also,
this time lag increases with the depth of the pavement layer. In figure 5 similar time lag can be
observed between the minimum air temperature and pavement temperatures. The pavement surface

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cools quicker than other deeper layers. Figures 5 and 6 also indicate that the maximum or minimum
pavement temperatures occur sometime after the occurrence of maximum or minimum air temperature,
respectively.
Also, in Figures 5 and 6 the solar radiation is presented. Values of the solar radiation were
scaled, in order to be presented on the same graph. It can be seen that the cycle of the solar radiation is
similar to the temperature cycle, and that the solar radiation has an effect on air and pavement
temperatures

Line Plot of of temparatures and solar radiation

Al koufra, 5th and 6th of June 2012
80

Air
70
Surface
3 cm
60 8 cm
15 cm
50 Solar radiation

40

30

20

10

0
1 17 33 49 65 81 97 113 129 145 161 177 193
9 25 41 57 73 89 105 121 137 153 169 185

Figure 6: Air, pavement temperatures and solar radiation at Al kufrah airport on 5th and 6th June 2012.

3.2 Pavement temperature prediction models

Maximum and minimum temperatures of the air and the pavement at four different depth were
extracted for each day of observed period. The models for predicting daily maximum and minimum
daily temperatures from maximum and minimum daily air temperature and solar radiation were
developed using statistical package Statistica 12 (StatSoft Inc., Tulsa, OK, USA), university license for
Novi Sad University. The models for pavement temperatures for four layers were obtained. Here we
will present the models for surface temperature.

3.2.1 Minimum daily pavement temperatures models

The first model to predict daily minimum surface pavement temperature is a linear regression
relationship between the daily minimum air temperature and the daily minimum surface pavement
temperature. It was established using daily minimum air temperature as an independent variable and
daily minimum surface pavement temperature as the dependent variable. The model is of the following
form:
(1)
where is the daily minimum pavement surface temperature, and is the daily minimum air
temperature in °C. The adjusted coefficient of determination for this model is R²= 0.97612415, that
is 97% of the variability of the daily minimum pavement surface temperature is explained by the daily
minimum air temperature. The standard error is Std.Error =1.1318, in other words, actual daily
minimal surface pavement temperatures deviate from the true regression line by approximately 1.13°C
(7%). The value of Fisher statistics is F(1,362)= 14841.6496, and the corresponding p-value is 0.00,

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indicating that there exists significant relationship between the variables in the equation. The analysis
of the residuals showed that the standard conditions for performing the regression analysis are
satisfied.
The coefficients of the model, their standard errors, values of test statistics and p values are
given in table 3, and the graphical illustration of the equation (1) and the data ifs given in figure 6.

Table 3: Coefficient of the model in (1)

Coefficients Std.Error t(362) p-value
Intercept 2.502255 0.131849 18.9781 0.00
Min. air temp. 0.952306 0.007817 121.8263 0.00

p-values in table 3 of the coefficients of the regression line indicate that both coefficients, intercept
and the slope, are significantly different from zero.

Scatterplot of T_surf against T_air

Al koufra minimal temperatures
32
Air_min : Surf_min: y = 2.5023 + 0.9523*x;
30
r = 0.9880, p = 0.0000;
Daily minimum surface pavement temperatures

28 r2 = 0.9762
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Daily minimum air temperatures

Figure 7: Minimum surface pavement temperature model

The next linear regression models to predict daily minimum pavement temperatures included,
besides daily minimal air temperature, wind speed and solar radiation. The coefficient of wind speed
was negative, indicating the temperature decreases with increase of the wind. The coefficient of solar
radiation was small, indicating that solar radiation does not have strong influence on minimal
temperatures, mainly because minimal temperatures occur early in the morning or late in the night when
solar radiation is low. However, the increase of the adjusted coefficient of determination, and
decrease of standard error was low for the new models, and therefore adding new variables did not
improve the model.

3.2.1 Maximum daily pavement temperatures models

The first model to predict daily maximum surface pavement temperature is a linear regression
relationship between the daily maximum air temperature and the daily maximum surface pavement
temperature. It was established using daily maximum air temperature as an independent variable and
daily maximum pavement surface pavement temperature as the dependent variable. The model is of the
following form:
(2)

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where is the daily maximum pavement surface temperature, and is the daily maximum air
temperature in °C. The adjusted coefficient of determination for this model is R²=0.81890794, that
is 82% of the variability of the daily maximum pavement surface temperature is explained by the daily
maximum air temperature. The standard error of the model is Std.Error =4.4749, in other words,
actual daily maximum surface pavement temperatures deviate from the true regression line by
approximately 4.74°C (8.5%). The value of Fisher statistics is F(1,362)= 1642.50538, and the
corresponding p-value is 0.00, indicating that there exists significant relationship between the
variables in the equation. The analysis of the residuals showed that the standard conditions for
performing the regression analysis are satisfied. The coefficients of the model, their standard errors,
values of test statistics and p values are given in table 4, and the graphical illustration of the equation
(2) and the data ifs given in figure 8.

Table 4: Coefficient of the model in (2)

Coefficients Std.Error t(362) p-value
Intercept 4.390290 1.205327 3.64241 0.000310
Max. air temp. 1.340760 0.033082 40.52783 0.000000

p-values in table 4 of the coefficients of the regression line indicate that both coefficients, intercept
and the slope, are significantly different from zero.
Scatterplot of T_surf against T_air
Al koufra maximal temperatures
80
Int_max:C1_max: y = 4.3903 + 1.3408*x;
r = 0.9052, p = 0.0000;
Daily maximum surface pavement temperatures

70 r 2 = 0.8194

60

50

40

30

20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Daily maximum air temperatures

Figure 8: Maximum surface pavement temperature model

Since daily maximum surface pavement temperature is affected by factors other than daily maximum
air temperature, other parameters were considered with the aim of improving R² and the standard error
of the model. Therefore, the next linear regression models to predict daily maximum surface pavement
temperatures included, besides daily minimal air temperature, wind speed and solar radiation.
The model is of the following form:
(3)
where is the daily maximum pavement surface temperature, and is the daily maximum air
temperature in °C, SR is the cumulative daily solar radiation in W/m2, WS is the wind speed in
m/s. The coefficient of wind speed was negative, indicating the temperature decreases with increase of
the wind. The adjusted coefficient of determination for this model is R²=0.898705723, that is 89.9%
of the variability of the daily maximum pavement surface temperature is explained the variables in the
equation. The standard error of the model is Std.Error =3.34677426, in other words, actual daily
maximum surface pavement temperatures deviate from the true regression line by approximately

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3.35°C (6.4%). The value of Fisher statistics is F(3,360)= 1074.53935, and the corresponding p-value
is 0.00, indicating that there exists significant relationship between the dependent variable and
independent variables in the equation. The increased R² and lower standard error indicated that both
the solar radiation and wind speed should be included in the model. The analysis of the residuals
showed that the standard conditions for performing the regression analysis are satisfied. The
coefficients of the model, their standard errors, values of test statistics and p values are given in table
5.
Table 5: Coefficient of the model in (3)
Standardized Std.Err. of Coeff. Std.Error t(360) p-value
Coeff. Stand. Coeff.
Intercept 4.795755 1.047930 4.57641 0.000007
Max. air temp. 0.639893 0.023253 0.947782 0.034442 27.51838 0.000000
SR 0.382363 0.022569 0.000591 0.000035 16.94190 0.000000
WS -0.039949 0.017392 -0.215036 0.093614 -2.29705 0.022189

p-values in table 4 of the coefficients of the regression line indicate that coefficients are significantly
different from zero. One can use standardized coefficients in the equation to compare the effect of
independent variables to dependent variable.

4. COMPARISON OF DEVELOPED MODELS WITH SHRP AND LTPP MODELS

4.1 Comparison of minimum daily pavement temperatures models

In order to compare our model and SHRP and LTPP low temperature prediction models for
pavement surface temperature, we consider the SHRP model,
, (4)
and LTPP model
( ), (5)
where is the daily minimum pavement surface temperature, and is the daily minimum air
temperature in °C and Lat is latitude for Al kufrah airport and is equal to 24.2833 (24°17'N). The
predicted models and collected data are presented in figure 9. It can be seen that the predicted daily
minimal surface pavement temperatures by SHRP model are lower than both the measured values and
the minimal surface pavement temperature predicted by the developed model in (1). The LTPP model
underestimate high, and overestimate low minimal daily surface pavement temperatures both for the
measured values and for predicted temperatures by the developed model in (1).

4.2 Comparison of maximum daily pavement temperatures models

In order to compare our model and SHRP and LTPP low temperature prediction models for
pavement surface temperature, we consider the SHRP model,
( ) (7)
and LTPP model
( ), (5)
where is the daily minimum pavement surface temperature, and is the daily minimum air
temperature in °C and Lat is latitude for Al kufrah airport and is equal to 24.2833 (24°17'N). The
predicted models and collected data are presented in figure 10. It can be seen that the predicted daily
minimal surface pavement temperatures by SHRP model are lower than both the measured values and
the minimal surface pavement temperature predicted by the developed model in (1). The LTPP model
underestimate high, and overestimate low minimal daily surface pavement temperatures both for the
measured values and for predicted temperatures by the developed model in (2). Therefore, the
developed model is more representative of Al kufrah climatic conditions. SHRP and LTPP models
would be expected to result in a more conservative selection of the PG binder.

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Al kouf ra minimal daily temperatures
SHRP = 1,7+0,859*x
LTTP = 4,8324+0,72*x
35

30 Surf. temp
SHRP
25 LTTP
20

15

10

0
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Minimum daily air temperature

Figure 9: Comparison between daily minimum surface pavement temperature prediction

model and SHRP and LTPP models.

Al kouf ra maximal temperatures

LTTP = 31,681+0,78*x
SHRP = 24,5312+0,9548*x
80
Surf. tem p.
LTTP
70
SHRP

60

50

40

30

20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Maximum daily air temperature

Figure 10: Comparison between daily maximum surface pavement temperature prediction
model and SHRP and LTPP models.

5. Conclusions

The paper formulates a new model for predicting maximum and minimum pavement surface
temperatures using regression equation, in dependence on the air temperature, wind speed and solar
radiation. Furthermore, model validation has been conducted. Based on the correlation coefficient,
standard model deviation and the mean absolute error (MAE) between measured and predicted
minimum pavement temperatures, it can be concluded that the model predict pavement surface
temperatures in Libya better than all other models mentioned in this paper. Also these developed
models are suitable for predicting pavement temperatures in Al kufrah region, and more generally in
the southern east of Libya.

Acknowledgments. The work of the third author was supported by the grant No.174019 by Ministry
of Education, science and technological Development Republic of Serbia.
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