Time Value of Money
Time Value of Money
-$100,000 $104,000
Cashflows
Is $4,000 the correct measure of value created?
You should reject this investment because the benefits are less
than the costs when compared using market prices.
The value today of a future cash flow is called the “Present
Value.”
Time Value of Money
Question: How is this problem related to Market Price?
Future money is just like any goods traded in the market
today.
The discount factor represents the today’s “market price” of
the future money.
The today’s “price” of next year’s $1 is 1/1.06=$0.94
Giving you the interest rate is equivalent to giving you the
market price of future money.
Using interest rates this way allows to compute “Equivalent
Values” to compare cash flows across time.
Problem:
The launch of Sony’s PlayStation 3 was delayed until November
2006, giving Microsoft’s Xbox 360 a full year on the market
without competition. Sony did not repeat this mistake in 2013
when the PS4 launched at the same time as the Xbox One.
Imagine that it is November 2005 and you are the marketing
manager for the PlayStation.You estimate that if the PlayStation
3 were ready to be launched immediately, you could sell $2
billion worth of the console in its first year. However, if your
launch is delayed a year, you believe that Microsoft’s head start
will reduce your first-year sales by 20% to $1.6 billion. If the
interest rate is 8%, what is the cost of a delay in terms of
dollars in 2005?
If the launch is delayed to 2006, revenues will drop by 20% of $2
billion, or $400 million, to $1.6 billion.
To compare this amount to revenues of $2 billion if launched in 2005,
we must convert it using the interest rate of 8%:
$1.6 billion/1.08 = $1.481 billion in 2005
Therefore, the cost of a delay of one year is
$2 billion - $1.481 billion = $0.519 billion ($519 million).
In this example, we focused only on the effect on the first year’s
revenues. However, delaying the launch delays the entire revenue stream
by one year, so the total cost would be calculated in the same way by
summing the cost of delay for each year of revenues.
Net Present Value
Net Present Value (NPV)
The difference between the present value of a projects benefits
and the present value of it’s costs.
NPV = PV of Benefits - PV of Costs
Question:
What if you need(or prefer) the cash $20,000 today?
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NPV and Cash Needs
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Pricing of a Security
Security: A claim to future cash flows.
($$) Pricing of a security: The price of a security should
equal to the present value of the future cash flows.
Problem:
You are considering purchasing a security, a “bond,” that pays
$1,000 without risk in one year, and has no other cash flows.
If the interest rate is 5%, what should its price be?
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Solution
The present value of the $1,000 cash flow is
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Timeline
Time Value of Money (TVM) problems involve identifying
the payment or receipt of cash over time.
A useful tool in the analysis of these problems is the timeline
illustrated below.
Years or Periods
0 1 2 3 4 5
CF CF CF CF CF CF
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cashflows
CF CF CF CF CF CF
0 1 2 3 4 5
$100 x 1.05 = $105
$105 x 1.05 = $110.25 Equivalent Values
$110.25 x 1.05 = $115.76
$115.76 x 1.05 = $121.55
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The Impact of Compound Interest
Future Value of $1
$18
$16
$14
$12
Dollars
$10 r = 5%
r = 10%
$8 r = 15%
$6
$4
$2
$0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Years
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Present Value - Discounting
Years
0 1 2 3 4 5
Present Future
Value Value
PV < FV FV – PV = Discount
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Present Value - Discounting
If we know the value in the future, and want to calculate the
value today we simply reverse the compounding process:
Future Value
Present Value
Alternatively: (1 r) t
1
PV FV Discount Factor
Where: (1 r )t
PV= present value of original investment
FV = future value of investment
n = number of periods
r = interest rate per period
The present value of one dollar received five years from now at a
5% interest rate is $0.78353.
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Present Value of an Investment
What is the present value of $1,000 discounted for 10 years
at 5%?
PV = $1,000 x 1/(1.05)10 = $613.91
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Years
r = 5% r = 10% r = 15%
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A Stream of Cash Flows
Suppose we plan to save $1,000 today, and $1,000 at the end
of each of the next two years. If we earn a fixed 10% interest
rate on our savings, how much will we have three years from
today?
Method #1:
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A Stream of Cash Flows
Method #2: compute the future value in year 3 of each cash
flow separately. Once all three amounts are in year 3 dollars,
we can then combine them.
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A Stream of Cash Flows
Method #3:
1. Calculate the year-0 present value of all cash flows.
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A Stream of Cash Flows
Question: Why these three methods are equivalent?
Answer:
The problem is equivalent to: Suppose you have 10 Dollars, 5
British Pounds, 1000 Yens, and 8 Euros. You can convert all
the money into Dollars directly. Or you can convert all into
Euros, and then convert into Dollars. No matter how you
convert the money, in the end you would end up with the
same amount of Dollars. The exchange rates in this situation
is equivalent to the time value of money.
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The Net Present Value of a Stream of
Cash Flows
NPV = PV(benefits) PV(costs) PV (benefits costs)
Example:
You have been offered the following investment opportunity:
If you invest $1,000 today, you will receive $500 at the end
of the next two years, followed by $550 at the end of the
third year. If you could otherwise earn 10% per year on your
money, should you undertake the investment opportunity?
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The Net Present Value of a Stream of
Cash Flows
Solution:
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Present Value of Multiple Payments
Perpetuity - a stream of equal payments received at regular
intervals forever.
Years
0 1 2 3 4….
Cashflows
Cash Payment
Present Value of Perpetuity
Required Discount Rate
PMT $10
PV Perpetuity $100
r .10
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Perpetuities
Suppose we invest an amount P at an interest rate r
Every year we can withdraw the interest we earned, C=r ×
P, leaving P in the bank
Because the cost to create the perpetuity is the investment of
principal, P, the value of receiving C in perpetuity is the
upfront cost, P
Valuing Perpetuities
PV = CF
r
EXAMPLE:
PV = $100,000/0.10 = $1,000,000
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.
Extensions
What is the time-0 PV of the following cash flows?
0 1 2 3 4….
0 1 2 3 4….
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Annuity
Annuity - - a stream of equal payments received at regular
intervals for a specified number of periods.
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Present Value of an Annuity
An Annuity is illustrated below on the timeline.
Annuities must have identical payment received at identical
intervals.
Years or Periods
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cashflows
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Intuitive Development of the Valuation
of an Annuity
Delayed Perpetuity - A perpetuity that starts at a future date.
Valuation of Delayed Perpetuity is a combination of the
perpetuity and present value formulas:
Cash Payment
Valueof Delayed PerpetuityToday r
(1 r )Time to First Payment - 1Period
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Intuitive Development of the Valuation
of an Annuity
An annuity can be thought of as a combination of a perpetuity
less a delayed perpetuity.
Value of Annuity=Perpetuity - Delayed Perpetuity
CF
CF r 1 1
Value of Annuity = CF
r r (1 r ) n
r (1 r ) n
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Present Value of an Annuity
What is the present value of a 5 year annuity of $1,000 a year
at a discount rate of 9%?
1 1
PV Annuity = 1000 5
$3,889.65
.09 .09(1.09)
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Example
Problem:
You are the lucky winner of the $30 million state lottery.You
can take your prize money either as (a) 30 payments of $1
million per year (starting today), or (b) $15 million paid
today. If the interest rate is 8%, which option should you
take?
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Example
Solution:
1 1
PV( 29-year annuity of $1million) $1 million 1
0.08 29
1.08
$1 million 11.16
$11.16 million today
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Future Value of an Annuity
We may be interested in calculating the accumulated value of
a stream of annuity payments invested at a constant rate of
interest.
0 1 2 3 4 5
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Intuitive Development of the
Future Value of an Annuity
The future value of an annuity can be calculated by computing
the Present Value annuity factor and multiplying it by the
Future Value Factor for the same term as the annuity.
1
1 r
1
Future Value of Annuity = PMT
n
n
r r (1 r )
(1 r ) n 1
Future Value of Annuity = PMT
r
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Future Value of an Annuity
What is the future value of a 10 year annuity of $1,000 a year
at an interest rate of 9%?
(1 .09)10 1
FV = 1,000 $15,192.93
.09
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Retirement Savings Plan Annuity
Problem:
Ellen is 35 years old, and she has decided it is time to plan seriously for her
retirement.
At the end of each year until she is 65, she will save $10,000 in a retirement
account.
If the account earns 10% per year, how much will Ellen have saved at age 65?
Retirement Savings Plan Annuity
Solution:
Plan:
As always, we begin with a timeline. In this case, it is helpful to keep track of
both the dates and Ellen’s age:
Retirement Savings Plan Annuity
Plan (cont’d):
Ellen’s savings plan looks like an annuity of $10,000 per year for 30 years.
(Hint: It is easy to become confused when you just look at age, rather than at
both dates and age. A common error is to think there are only 65-36= 29
payments. Writing down both dates and age avoids this problem.)
To determine the amount Ellen will have in the bank at age 65, we’ll need to
compute the future value of this annuity.
Retirement Savings Plan Annuity
Execute: 1
FV $10,000 (1.1030 1)
0.10
$10,000 164.49
$1.645 million at age 65
Example:
Years
0 1 2 3 4
Cashflows
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Constant Growth Perpetuities
If the cash flows continue forever, but grow over time at a
constant rate, the following formula is used.
CF
Present Value of Constant Growth Perpetuity
rg
where :
CF the cashflow in the next period
r the required discount rate
g the constant growth rate
Note : r has to be bigger than g , otherwise, PV will not be finite
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Example of a Growing Perpetuity
A college scholarship endowment must grow annually if it is
to keep up with increases in tuition.
Assumptions:
Annual Tuition = $12,000
Assumed Growth Rate = 5%
Required Return on Investments = 10%
CF $12,000
Present Value $240,000
r g .10 .05
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Growing Cash Flows
Present Value of a Growing Annuity
A growing annuity is a stream of N growing cash flows, paid
at regular intervals
It is a growing perpetuity that eventually comes to an end
The following timeline shows a growing annuity with initial
cash flow C, growing at a rate of g every period until period
N:
Growing Cash Flows
Present Value of a Growing Annuity:
1 1 g
N
PV= C 1
r - g 1 r
r=g (l'Hô
pital's Rule)
r<g (geometric sequence and sums)
Solving for other Variables
Solving for the Discount Rate
Present Future
Value Value
Rate of Growth???
(1 / n )
Future Value
Discount Rate 1
Present Value
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Solving for the Discount Rate
Example: the implied return based on receiving $127.63
after five years on an initial investment of $100 is as follows:
(1 / 5 )
127.63
5% or .05 1
100
Example: the implied return based on receiving $2000 after
ten years on an initial investment of $1000 is as follows:
(1/ 10 )
2000
7.18% or .0718 1
1000
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Solving for the Rate with Multiple Cash
flows
If you know the Present Value and the Payment Amount you
can solve for the discount rate by setting the annuity
relationship equal to zero.
You need to use trial and error.
This Rate is called the Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Your Financial Calculator simplifies this calculation.
Years or Periods
0 1 2 3 4 5
PV CF CF CF CF CF
1 1
0 PV PMT n
r r (1 r )
Solve for discount rate by trial & error
Solving for the Rate with Multiple Cash
flows
Suppose your firm needs to purchase a new forklift
The dealer gives you two options:
A price for the forklift if you pay cash ($40,000)
The annual payments if you take out a loan from the dealer (no
money down and four annual payments of $15,000)
Solving for the Rate with Multiple Cash
flows
Setting the present value of the cash flows equal to zero
requires that the present value of the payments equals the
purchase price:
1 1
40,000 15,000 1
r (1 r) 4
The solution for r is the interest rate charged by the dealer,
which you can compare to the rate charged by your bank
Solving for the Rate with Multiple Cash
flows
PV CF CF CF CF CF
1 1
CF or Payment =PV n
r r (1 r )
Computing a Loan Payment
Problem:
Your firm plans to buy a warehouse for $100,000.
The bank offers you a 30-year loan with equal annual payments and an interest
rate of 8% per year.
The bank requires that your firm pay 20% of the purchase price as a down
payment, so you can borrow only $80,000.
What is the annual loan payment?
Computing a Loan Payment
Solution:
We start with the timeline (from the bank’s perspective):
Solve for the loan payment, C, given N=30, r = 8% (0.08) and P=$80,000
Computing a Loan Payment (cont’d)
Execute:
P 80, 000
C
1 1 1 1
1 N 1 30
r (1 r) 0.08 (1.08)
$7106.19
Solving for the Number of Periods
If you know the Present Value, Discount Rate and Future Value
solving for the Number of Periods also requires trial & error.
This calculation could be done mathematically using
Logarithms.
Your Financial Calculator simplifies this problem.
Years or Periods
0 1 2 3 4 5
PV FV