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Technical Analysis

The document discusses technical analysis, which studies past stock price and volume data to predict future price movements, rather than analyzing a company's intrinsic value like fundamental analysis does. It defines technical analysis, outlines its assumptions and methods, and discusses how technical analysts use charts, patterns, and indicators to identify trends. It also provides background on stock markets, explaining their role in economies and how they facilitate capital raising and investment opportunities.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
1K views65 pages

Technical Analysis

The document discusses technical analysis, which studies past stock price and volume data to predict future price movements, rather than analyzing a company's intrinsic value like fundamental analysis does. It defines technical analysis, outlines its assumptions and methods, and discusses how technical analysts use charts, patterns, and indicators to identify trends. It also provides background on stock markets, explaining their role in economies and how they facilitate capital raising and investment opportunities.

Uploaded by

aurorashiva1
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 65

“A PROJECT REPORT ON

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO
VENTURA SECURITIES

1
INDEX

 INTRODUCTION
 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
 NEED OF THE STUDY
 LIMITATIONS
CHAPTER-2

 COMPANY PROFILE
 INDUSTRY PROFILE
CHP-3 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

CHP-4 DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

 INFERENCE
 CONCLUSIONS
 SUGGESTIONS
BIBLIOGRAPGHY

2
CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION

3
INTRODUCTION
The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into
two very broad categories: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental
analysis involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its value.
Technical analysis takes a completely different approach; it doesn't care one bit about the
"value" of a company or a commodity.

Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really just studies
supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will
continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the
emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its components.

WHAT IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?

Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics


generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not
attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to
identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are also many
different types of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns, others use technical
indicators and oscillators, and most use some combination of the two. In any case,
technical analysts' exclusive use of historical price and volume data is what separates them
from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysts, technical analysts don't
care whether a stock is undervalued - the only thing that matters is a security's past trading
data and what information this data can provide about where the security might move in
the future.

The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions:

1.     The market discounts everything.


2.     Price moves in trends.
3.     History tends to repeat itself.

4
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

“Technical analysis refers to the study of market generated data like prices & volume to

determine the future direction of prices movements.”

Technical analysis mainly seeks to predict the short term price travels. It is important

criteria for selecting the company to invest. It also provides the base for decision-making

in investment. The one of the most frequently used yardstick to check & analyze

underlying price progress. For that matter a verity of tools was consider.

This Technical analysis is helpful to general investor in many ways. It provides important

& vital information regarding the current price position of the company. Technical analysis

involves the use of various methods for charting, calculating & interpreting graph & chart

to assess the performances & status of the price. It is the tool of financial analysis, which

not only studies but also reflecting the numerical & graphical relationship between the

important financial factors.

The focus of technical analysis is mainly on the internal market data, i.e. prices & volume

data. It appeals mainly to short term traders. It is the oldest approach to equity investment

dating back to the late 19th century.

It uses charts and computer programs to study the stock’s trading volume and price

movements in the hope of identifying a trend.

In fact the decision made on the basis of technical analysis is done only

after inferring a trend and judging the future movement of the stock on

the basis of the trend. Technical Analysis assumes that the market is efficient and the price

has already taken into consideration the other factors related to the company and the

industry. It is because of this assumption that many think technical analysis is a tool, which

is effective for short-term investing.

5
STOCK MARKET:

The Meaning

Stock market is a place where the shares of different companies are bought and sold. The
Organized Platform through which the buyers and sellers can trade in shares or other forms
of securities like bonds, derivatives is called STOCK EXCHANGE. The stock exchanges
could be a corporation or a mutual organization. They primarily serve the purpose of
listing and trading the shares.

In India, there are two stock exchanges apart from Regional stock exchanges:

1) National Stock Exchange (NSE)

2) Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)

Definition

“ The market in which shares are issued and traded either through exchanges or over-the-
counter markets. Also known as the equity market, it is one of the most vital areas of a
market economy as it provides companies with access to capital and investors with a slice
of ownership in the company and the potential of gains based on the company's future
performance.”

 Role of Stock Exchange in an Economy

Stock exchanges have multiple roles in the economy. This may include the following:

1) Raising capital for businesses

The Stock Exchange provides companies with the facility to raise capital for expansion
through selling shares to the investing public.

2) Mobilizing savings for investment

When people draw their savings and invest in shares, it leads to a more rational allocation
of resources because funds, which could have been consumed, or kept in idle deposits with
banks, are mobilized and redirected to promote business activity resulting in stronger
economic growth and higher productivity levels of firms.

6
3) Corporate governance

By having a wide and varied scope of owners, companies generally tend to improve
management standards and efficiency to satisfy the demands of the stakeholders.

4) Creating investment opportunities for small investors

As opposed to other businesses that require huge capital outlay, investing in shares is open
to both the large and small stock investors because a person buys the number of shares they
can afford.

5) Government capital-raising for development projects

Governments at various levels may decide to borrow money to finance infrastructure


projects by selling bonds. The issuance of such bonds can obviate the need, in the short
term, to directly tax citizens to finance development.

6) Barometer of the economy

At the stock exchange, share prices rise and fall depending, largely, on market forces.
Therefore the movement of share prices and in general of the stock indexes can be an
indicator of the general trend in the economy.

 Central functions and responsibilities of a stock market:

1) Making available cost-effective trading platforms

2) Bundling of liquidity by concentrating supply and demand

3) Guaranteeing the interchangeability, as well as the identical structuring of a


particular category of security

4) Ensuring the greatest possible transparency for investors

5) Providing information on prices and volume

7
Investment strategies:

One of the many things people always want to know about the stock market is, “How do I
make money investing?" There are many different approaches; two basic methods are
classified as either fundamental analysis or technical analysis. Fundamental analysis refers
to analyzing companies by their financial statements found in SEC Filings, business trends,
general economic conditions, etc.

INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY:

The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into two very
broad categories: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis
involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its value.
Technical analysis takes a completely different approach; it doesn’t care one bit about the
‘value” of a company or a commodity. Technicians (sometimes called chartists) are only
interested in the price movements in the market.

Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really just studies
supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will
continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the
emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its components. If you
understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it can give you a new set or
skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.

Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are also many
different types of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns, others use technical
indicators and oscillators, and most use some combination of the two. In any case,
technical analysts exclusive use of historical price and volume data is what separates them
from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysts don’t
care whether a stock is undervalued – the only thing that matters is a security’s past trading
data and what information this data can provide about where the society might move in the
future.

8
Technical analysis

It is the polar opposite of fundamental analysis, which is the basis of every method
explored so far in this tutorial. Technical analysts, or technicians, select stocks by
analyzing statistics generated by past market activity, prices and volumes. Sometimes also
known as chartists, technical analysts look at the past charts of prices and different
indicators to make inferences about the future movement of a stock's price.

Philosophy of Technical Analysis

In his book, "Charting Made Easy", technical analysis guru John Murphy introduces
readers to the study of technical analysis, explaining its basic premises and tools. Here he
explains the underlying theories of technical analysis:

Definition

"Chart analysis (also called technical analysis) is the study of market action, using price
charts, to forecast future price direction. The cornerstone of the technical philosophy is the
belief that all factors that influence market price - fundamental information, political
events, natural disasters, and psychological factors - are quickly discounted in market
activity. In other words, the impact of these external factors will quickly show up in some
form of price movement, either up or down."

 The most important assumptions that all technical analysis techniques are
based upon can be summarized as follows:

1) Prices already reflect, or discount, relevant information. In other words, markets


are efficient.

2) Prices move in trends.

3) History repeats itself.

General description

Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are
mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down volume,
advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an
asset is trending, and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation.
Technicians also look for relationships between price/volume indices and market
indicators. Examples include the relative strength index, and MACD. Other avenues of

9
study include correlations between changes in Options (implied volatility) and put/call
ratios with price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios, bull/bear
ratios, short interest, Implied Volatility, etc.

There are many techniques in technical analysis. Adherents of different techniques (for
example, candlestick charting, Dow Theory, and Elliott wave theory) may ignore the other
approaches, yet many traders combine elements from more than one technique. Some
technical analysts use subjective judgment to decide which pattern(s) a particular
instrument reflects at a given time and what the interpretation of that pattern should be.
Others employ a strictly mechanical or systematic approach to pattern identification and
interpretation.

Technical analysis is frequently contrasted with fundamental analysis, the study of


economic factors that influence the way investor’s price financial markets. Technical
analysis holds that prices already reflect all such trends before investors are aware of them.
Uncovering those trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, imperfect as they
may be. Fundamental indicators are subject to the same limitations, naturally. Some traders
use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make
trading decisions.

Benefits of Technical Analysis

 Technical analysis focuses on price movement.


 Trends are easily found.

 Patterns are easily identified.

 Charting is quick and inexpensive.

 Charts provide a wealth of information.

 Charting terms and indicators

10
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
 To Analyze the stock price movements traded in NSE

 To Calculate the Return and Risk. (CANARA BANK, HDFC BANK, SBI BANK)

 .To Understand the reasons behind volatility of the stock price

 To Suggesting strategies to improve financial performance

 To identify the cause of movement.


 To identify the moment of buying and selling.
 To suggest when to buy and when to sell.

11
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This study aims to make a technical analysis of Infosys technology ltd. The technical
analysis is based on the historical data collected from the various web sites; this study also
aims to discus in brief some common day trading strategies.

12
NEED &IMPORTANT OF THE STUDY
Where the herds of bulls and beers are peeping to the stock market in an
expectation to grab the opportunity to take the advantage of volatility, a study on Technical
Analysis is very much needed to cope with the moment-change market fluctuations in the
expected direction to earn desired profits. This research study fulfils the needs of the
speculators, investors and students to acquire knowledge regarding various technical
aspects of investing the most liquid and hard-earned money not only in profitable stocks,
but also at the right time and at the right price. The thesis describes the various trends and
chart patterns which are very much helpful to find the timing of investment at different
market situations.

This study contributes to the knowledge of Stock analysis through integration of the
review of literature and methodology developed for the understanding and resolution of
various related indicators and techniques regarding investment decision-making in stock
market, and empirical work done there on.

The purpose of the summer project report is to allow the study within a coherent,
organized and standardized framework which is necessary to enhance understanding to
grasp knowledge and to clarify the subject matter. It is needed for the direction and
procedure of the study to bring it up to the required scope, coverage, rigor and also to
enhance the quality of research effort.

13
METHODOLOGY
 Primary Source

 Secondary Source

Primary Source

The data collected from primary sources are raw-data. These are the data that are
collected first-hand and have not had any previous meaningful interpretation. The primary
data will be collected through observation, questionnaire and through well-tested personal
interviews with the investors at the door of number of broking houses.

Secondary Source

Any data used that have been collected earlier for some other purposes are known
as Secondary Data. The secondary data has been collected such from various internet
portals, research articles, reference books and various T.V. programmes related to the
topic.

RESEARCH DESIGN

The present research study will adopt Descriptive Research Design for properly
designing the research work. Through this, the topic will be studied thoroughly and it will
be presented by giving necessary findings and conclusions.

SAMPLING METHOD

The method adopted is Convenient Sampling method because it was necessary to


cover all types of investors and at different places all over the city, even if by taking the
help of cell phone.

SAMPLE SIZE

The total sample size was 50 and included small investors, speculators, businessmen,
research scholars and finance students. The interview was conducted inside the city of
Bhubaneswar only.

14
LIMITATION
Although necessary precautions have taken, still this study suffers from the following
limitations:

Data analysis has been conducted primarily by using secondary sources of data

I didn’t get an opportunity to discuss the issues top management

 The study consists of detailed theoretical explanations.


 The time period allowed for the study was quite insufficient to cover and analyse all the
technical aspects and to compare it with the behaviour of the stock market.
 More importance has been given to the subject matter of Technical Analysis only.
 The wide range of chart-patterns and trends may create confusion while going through
these.
 The study may act as a magic-pedia for a layman having no basic knowledge regarding
securities market.
 Confidentiality of information was the biggest limitation that corporate people and
investors were not willing to share.

 The primary limitation of the study is that, the survey is limited within the city of
Bhubaneswar only.

15
CHAPTER -2
COMPANY &INDUSTRY
PROFILE

16
COMPANY PROFILE

1. Ventura Securities Ltd., is a leading stock broking organization

2. Promoted and managed by professionals having exceptional knowledge of Capital

Market.

3. Ventura believes in philosophy that the key to their business is service which will result

in total satisfaction to the clients.

Ventura – PROMOTERS

Sajid Malik, Director, is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India.He

has nearly fifteen years of varied experience in corporate advisory structured finance and

private equity transaction. He has an international exposure to developed markets in

Europe, US and the Far East and has been personally involved in international equity

offerings and cross border acquisitions. He is the CEO of Genesys International, a

company focused on outsourcing of GIS and engineering design services. He is a non-

executive director of Ventura Securities.

Hemant Majethia, Director is member of the Institute of Chartered Accountant of

India. He has nearly fifteen years of rich experience in the capital markets intermediation,

equity research and has a wide cross section of market relationships. Mr. Majethia is the

CEO of Ventura Securities. It was his vision to create an all India network of brokers’

relationship and build the distribution strength of Ventura.

17
Company's Goal

• We aim to add value and provide our clients with an unrivalled and specialized service which

reflects the expertise and efficiency of our dedicated support teams.

History

FOUNDATION OF VENTURA

1. Founded in 1994 by Chartered Accountants Sajid Malik and Hemant Majethia. They are the

first generation entrepreneurs and are the principal promoters of Ventura.

2. A dedicated and efficient team of senior managers assists Mr. Majethia the CEO of the

company.

3. Ventura is a full-service domestic brokerage house providing value-based advisory services to

Institutions (Foreign and Domestic), High Net Worth and Retail Investors with its core area of

operations being stock-broking.

4. Ventura have considerable strength and domain knowledge in the booming derivatives market.

5. Ventura has achieved a reputation for innovative and unbiased research along with excellent

technical analysis and execution capabilities.

Not only has Ventura provided value-added services to the gamut of India-based funds, it has

also developed the advice-driven business of high net worth and corporate clients.

18
Why Ventura?

1. Ventura’s services are offered under total confidentiality and integrity with the sole purpose of

maximizing returns for their clients.

2. Equity Broking - Corporate Member of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and National

Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE).

3. Pan India reach - 380 terminals spread across 75 different locations, in semi urban, urban and

metropolitan areas.

4. More than 100,000 retail clients serviced from the above locations

5. Ventura have heavily invested in technology (customized and ready to use software) involving

front and back end operations offering seamless process and flawless execution and raising our

service levels.

6. Ventura operate on an alert and well-defined system in risk management and settlement

mechanism

19
OFFERINGS

20
Research competency

1. Market Outlooks and Strategy Analysis Market research at Ventura is structured to meet a wide

variety of customer needs.

2. Services in this area range from the intra-day analysis of the most recent fundamental and

technical developments affecting pricing to longer-term strategic research of supply, demand,

and inventory trends.

3. Along with its price forecasting capability, the Team undertakes analytical research on hedging

and trading strategies.

4. The Team also publishes monographs on topics of broad interest to its customers, such as the

impact of changing accounting standards, developments in risk management, and current hedge

activities and strategic thought in the various sectors of the market.

21
DIRECTORS:

Sajid Malik Co-promoter of Ventura and Director A chartered accountant by qualification,

Sajid Malik is also the Promoter and Managing Director of Genesys International, a

company with focus on GIS mapping and engineering designing services, listed on the

NSE and BSE.

HEMANT MAJETHIACO-promoter of Ventura, CEO and Director With over 2 decades

of experience in capital market intermediation and equity research Hemant Majethia is well

connected and respected in market circles for his technocratic approach to stock broking.

He is a chartered accountant by qualification and has been instrumental in the development

of the online platform "POINTER".

JUZER GABAJIWALA Director A member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of

India and The Institute of Company Secretaries of India, heads the HR and operations

functions at Ventura. He initiated the launch of the alternate products platforms for mutual

fund distribution and insurance. He also spearheaded the wealth management and NRI cell.

Prior to joining Ventura, has been associated with the IIT group and the TATA group.

22
INDUSTRY PROFILE

Journey of Indian stock market

Indian Stock Markets are one of the oldest in Asia. Its history dates back to nearly 200
years ago. The earliest records of security dealings in India are meager and obscure. The
East India Company was the dominant institution in those days and business in its loan
securities used to be transacted towards the close of the eighteenth century.

By 1830's business on corporate stocks and shares in Bank and Cotton presses took place
in Bombay. Though the trading list was broader in 1839, there were only half a dozen
brokers recognized by banks and merchants during 1840 and 1850.

The 1850's witnessed a rapid development of commercial enterprise and brokerage


business attracted many men into the field and by 1860 the number of brokers increased
into 60.

In 1860-61 the American Civil War broke out and cotton supply from United States of
Europe was stopped; thus, the 'Share Mania' in India begun. The number of brokers
increased to about 200 to 250. However, at the end of the American Civil War, in 1865, a
disastrous slump began (for example, Bank of Bombay Share which had touched Rs 2850
could only be sold at Rs. 87).

At the end of the American Civil War, the brokers who thrived out of Civil War in 1874,
found a place in a street (now appropriately called as Dalal Street) where they would
conveniently assemble and transact business. In 1887, they formally established in
Bombay, the "Native Share and Stock Brokers' Association" (which is alternatively known
as "The Stock Exchange "). In 1895, the Stock Exchange acquired a premise in the same
street and it was inaugurated in 1899. Thus, the Stock Exchange at Bombay was
consolidated.

23
Growth Pattern of the Indian Stock Market

Sr. As on 31st TILL


1946 1961 1971 1975 1980 1985 1991
No. December 2017

No. of
1 Stock 7 7 8 8 9 14 20 23
Exchanges

No. of
2 1125 1203 1599 1552 2265 4344 6229 8593
Listed Cos.

No. of Stock
3 Issues of 1510 2111 2838 3230 3697 6174 8967 11784
Listed Cos.

Capital of
4 Listed 270 753 1812 2614 3973 9723 32041 59583
Cos. (Cr. Rs.)

Market value
of
5 Capital of 971 1292 2675 3273 6750 25302 110279 478121
Listed
Cos. (Cr. Rs.)

Capital per
Listed Cos.
6 24 63 113 168 175 224 514 693
(4/2)
(Lakh Rs.)

Market Value
of
Capital per
7 Listed 86 107 167 211 298 582 1770 5564
Cos. (Lakh
Rs.)
(5/2)

Appreciated
value
8 of Capital per 358 170 148 126 170 260 344 803
Listed Cos.
(Lakh Rs.)

24
ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT

WHAT IS INVESTMENT?
Investment is the activity, which is made with the objective of earning some sort of
positive returns in the future. It is the commitment of the funds to earn future returns and it
involves sacrificing the present investment for the future return. Every person makes the
investment so that the funds he has increases as keeping cash with himself is not going to
help as it will not generate any returns and also with the passage of time the time value of
the money will come down. As the inflation will rise the purchasing power of the money
will come down and this will result that the investor who does not invest will become more
poor as he will not have any funds whose value have been increased. Thus every person
whether he is a businessman or a common man will make the investment with the
objective of getting future returns.

TYPES OF INVESTMENT:-

There are basically three types of investments from which the investors can choose. The
three kinds of investment have their own risk and return profile and investor will decide to
invest taking into account his own risk appetite. The main types of investments are: -

Economic investments:-
These investments refer to the net addition to the capital stock of the society. The capital stock of
the society refers to the investments made in plant, building, land and machinery which are used
for the further production of the goods. This type of investments are very important for the
development of the economy because if the investment are not made in the plant and machinery the
industrial production will come down and which will bring down the overall growth of the
economy.

Financial Investments:-

This type of investments refers to the investments made in the marketable securities which
are of tradable nature. It includes the shares, debentures, bonds and units of the mutual
funds and any other securities which is covered under the ambit of the Securities Contract
Regulations Act definition of the word security. The investments made in the capital
market instruments are of vital important for the country economic growth as the stock
market index is called as the barometer of the economy.
General Investments:-

25
These investments refer to the investments made by the common investor in his own small
assets like the television, car, house, motor cycle. These types of investments are termed as
the household investments. Such types of investment are important for the domestic
economy of the country. When the demand in the domestic economy boost the overall
productions and the manufacturing in the industrial sectors also goes up and this causes
rise in the employment activity and thus boost up the GDP growth rate of the country. The
organizations like the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) regularly takes the study of
the investments made in the household sector which shows that the level of consumptions
in the domestic markets.

CHARACTERISICS OF INVESTMENT
Certain features characterize all investments. The following are the main characteristics feature if
investments: -

1. Return: -

All investments are characterized by the expectation of a return. In fact, investments are made with
the primary objective of deriving a return. The return may be received in the form of yield plus
capital appreciation. The difference between the sale price & the purchase price is capital
appreciation. The dividend or interest received from the investment is the yield. Different types of
investments promise different rates of return. The return from an investment depends upon the
nature of investment, the maturity period & a host of other factors.

2. Risk: -

Risk is inherent in any investment. The risk may relate to loss of capital, delay in repayment of
capital, nonpayment of interest, or variability of returns. While some investments like government
securities & bank deposits are almost risk less, others are more risky. The risk of an investment
depends on the following factors.

26
3. Safety: -

The safety of an investment implies the certainty of return of capital without loss of money or time.
Safety is another features which an investors desire for his investments. Every investor expects to
get back his capital on maturity without loss & without delay.

4. Liquidity: -

An investment, which is easily saleable, or marketable without loss of money & without loss

of time is said to possess liquidity. Some investments like company deposits, bank deposits,

P.O. deposits, NSC, NSS etc. are not marketable. Some investment instrument like preference

shares & debentures are marketable, but there are no buyers in many cases & hence their

liquidity is negligible. Equity shares of companies listed on stock exchanges are easily

marketable through the stock exchanges.

An investor generally prefers liquidity for his investment, safety of his funds, a good return with
minimum risk or minimization of risk & maximization of return.

IMPORTANCE
In the current situation, investment is becomes necessary for everyone & it is important &

useful in the following ways:

1. Retirement planning: -

Investment decision has become significant as people retire between the ages of 55 & 60. Also, the
trend shows longer life expectancy. The earning from employment should, therefore, be calculated
in such a manner that a portion should be put away as a savings. Savings by themselves do not
increase wealth; these must be invested in such a way that the principal & income will be adequate
for a greater number of retirement years. Increase in working population, proper planning for life
span & longevity have ensured the need for balanced investment Financial services industry is the
mainstay of any economy as it mirrors the financial health of the country. Indian financial markets are
highly regulated with different authorities keeping an eye on every avenue of financial sub-segments
viz. Stock markets, mutual funds, insurance and banking. Stock markets are regulated by Securities and
Exchange Board of India (SEBI) while Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) keeps
an eye on the insurance industry. Similarly, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keeps a check on the Indian
banking sector and Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) takes care of the mutual fund
segment.

27
India boasts of a Rs 23, 000 crore (US$ 4.44 billion) - financial services distribution and advice market.
Recent developments, Government measures, key facts and figures pertaining to the same are discussed
hereafter.

Insurance Sector

Even when the turbulent times are prevalent in the global financial markets, Indian consumers have not
lost faith in their financial systems. This fact is majorly driving Indian insurance market.

According to the data released by Life Insurance Council, total premium collected (including both new
and renewal premiums) during April-September 2011 stood at Rs 1,22,661 crore (US$ 23.69 billion). In
the same period, the renewal premium collection increased by 17 per cent to Rs 73,575 crore (US$
14.21 billion), as against Rs 62,818 crore (US$ 16.13 billion) in the corresponding period in 2010.

Till September 30, 2011, promoters of life insurance companies had injected over Rs 32,720 crore (US$
6.32 billion) as capital. Also, there was an investment of more than Rs 200,000 crore (US$ 38.62
billion) in infrastructure development in the sector.

The council further predicts an upsurge in new premium collections during October 2011-March 2016.

Banking Services

Ratings agency Moody's believe that strong deposit base of Indian lenders and Government's persistent
support to public sector and private banks would act as positive factors for the 64 trillion (US$ 1.23
trillion) Indian banking industry amidst the negative global scenario.

 According to the RBI's 'Quarterly Statistics on Deposits and Credit of Scheduled Commercial
Banks', March 2011, Nationalized Banks, as a group, accounted for 53.0 per cent of the aggregate
deposits, while State Bank of India (SBI) and its associates accounted for 21.6 per cent. The share
of new private sector banks, Old private sector banks, Foreign banks and Regional Rural banks in
aggregate deposits was 13.4 per cent, 4.6 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 3 per cent respectively.

With respect to gross bank credit also, nationalised banks hold the highest share of 52.8 per cent in
the total bank credit, with SBI and its associates at 22.1 per cent and New Private sector banks at
13.2 per cent. Foreign banks, Old private sector banks and Regional Rural banks held relatively
lower shares in the total bank credit with 4.9 per cent, 4.6 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively.
 Another statement from RBI has revealed that bank advances grew 17.08 per cent annually as on
December 16, 2011 while bank deposits rose 18.03 per cent.

Mutual Funds Industry in India

Recent data released by AMFI stated that the cumulative average Asset Under Management (AUM) of
all fund houses aggregated to about Rs 6,87,640 crore (US$ 132.77 billion) in the last quarter of 2011.
28
Data compiled at the end of 2011 indicated that HDFC Mutual Fund maintained its top position with an
average AUM of Rs 88,737.07 crore (US$ 17.13 billion) while fund houses namely Reliance, ICICI
Pru, Birla Sunlife and UTI followed. By the end of 2011, there were a total of 44 fund houses in the
country as against 42 in the first quarter of the year.

Private Equity (PE), Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) in India

Global consultancy firm Ernst & Young (E&Y) has stated that the value of M&A deals involving Indian
companies aggregated to US$ 34.4 billion in 2011 involving 806 transactions. There were 177 outbound
deals with an aggregate disclosed value of US$ 8.8 billion in 2011; forming 25.6 per cent of the total
M&A pie.

Adani Enterprises' acquisition of Abbot Point Coal Terminal in Australia (US$ 2 billion) and the GVK
Group's purchase of Australia-based Hancock Coal's Queensland coal assets (US$ 1.3 billion) were
among the biggest outbound deals recorded in 2011.

According to data released by auditing and consultancy firm KPMG, India Inc witnessed a 31 per cent
increment in PE investment to US$ 7.89 billion during the first three quarters of 2011. PE firms like
Blackstone India and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR & Co) are betting high on Indian markets.
The Blackstone India chief was reported to have said that he intends to close 5-6 deals a year in India
whose financial valuations would revolve around roughly US$ 100 million to US$ 160 million each.

29
The financial industry, or financial services industry, includes a wide range of companies and
institutions involved with money, including businesses providing money management, lending,
investing, insuring and securities issuance and trading services. The following institutions are a part
of the financial industry:

Banks

Credit card issuers

Insurance companies

Investment bankers

Securities traders

Financial planners

Security exchanges

Financial Industry: History

The major events that have shaped the modern finance industry are:

The Great Depression (1929): The Great Depression originated in the US with the Wall Street
crash in October 1929. The effects of the depression spread across the world, especially in the
heavy industries. Capital requirements regulation, financial industry oversights and the insurance of
deposit accounts sprang out of this tumultuous period.

Black Monday (1987): On October 19, the stock markets across the world witnessed a huge crash.
This was the largest one day decline in the stock market history. The crash started in Hong Kong,
spreading to Europe and the US. Analysts blamed computer trading systems for magnifying the
losses.

Asian Financial Crisis (1990s): The Asian Financial Crisis was triggered by the collapse of Thai
baht as the government of Thailand decided to float the national currency. The nation had a huge
foreign debt at that point, driving it to the verge of bankruptcy. The crisis rippled across the whole
of Southeast Asia and has led to many emerging market countries to reduce debts and build up
foreign currency reserves.

30
CHAPTER-3
LITERATURE REVIEW

31
LITERATURE REVIEW
Technical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to
forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price
and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price and
volume behavior of the market or instrument. Technical analysts, sometimes called
"chartists", may employ models and trading rules based on price and volume
transformations, such as the relative strength index, moving averages, regressions, inter-
market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, through recognition of
chart patterns.

Technical analysis stands in distinction to fundamental analysis. Technical analysis


"ignores" the actual nature of the company, market, currency or commodity and is based
solely on "the charts," that is to say price and volume information, whereas fundamental
analysis does look at the actual facts of the company, market, currency or commodity. For
example, any large brokerage, trading group, or financial institution will typically have
both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team.

Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are also
many different types of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns; others use technical
indicators and oscillators, and most use some combination of the two. In any case,
technical analysts' exclusive use of historical price and volume data is what separates them
from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysts, technical analysts don't
care whether a stock is undervalued - the only thing that matters is a security's past trading
data and what information this data can provide about where the security might move in
the future.

ASSUMPTIONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical Analysis is based on certain assumptions. It does not matter whether the
assumptions are reflected in actual practice or not, investors take those in to consideration
while taking investment decisions and analyzing technical indicators. These basic
assumptions are:

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Price Moves in Trends

In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This means that after
a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same
direction as the trend than to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on
this assumption.

History Tends To Repeat Itself

Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself,
mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed
to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent
reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Technical analysis uses chart patterns to
analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these charts have
been used for more than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they
illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.

Not Just for Stocks

Technical analysis can be used on any security with historical trading data. This
includes stocks, futures and commodities, fixed-income securities, forex, etc. In this report,
we'll usually analyze stocks in our examples, but keep in mind that these concepts can be
applied to any type of security. In fact, technical analysis is more frequently associated
with commodities and forex, where the participants are predominantly traders.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are the two main schools of thought in
the financial markets. As we've mentioned, technical analysis looks at the price movement
of a security and uses this data to predict its future price movements. Fundamental
analysis, on the other hand, looks at economic factors, known as fundamentals. Let's get
into the details of how these two approaches differ, the criticisms against technical analysis
and how technical and fundamental analysis can be used together to analyze securities.

The Differences

Charts vs. Financial Statements

At the most basic level, a technical analyst approaches a security from the charts,
while a fundamental analyst starts with the financial statements. By looking at the balance
sheet, cash flow statement and income statement, a fundamental analyst tries to determine

33
a company's value. In financial terms, an analyst attempts to measure a company's intrinsic
value. In this approach, investment decisions are fairly easy to make - if the price of a
stock trades below its intrinsic value, it's a good investment. Although this is an
oversimplification (fundamental analysis goes beyond just the financial statements).

Technical traders, on the other hand, believe there is no reason to analyze a company's
fundamentals because these are all accounted for in the stock's price. Technicians believe
that all the information they need about a stock can be found in its charts.

Time Horizon

Fundamental analysis takes a relatively long-term approach to analyzing the market


compared to technical analysis. While technical analysis can be used on a timeframe of
weeks, days or even minutes, fundamental analysis often looks at data over a number of
years.

The different timeframes that these two approaches use is a result of the nature of the
investing style to which they each adhere. It can take a long time for a company's value to
be reflected in the market, so when a fundamental analyst estimates intrinsic value, a gain
is not realized until the stock's market price rises to its "correct" value. This type of
investing is called value investing and assumes that the short-term market is wrong, but
that the price of a particular stock will correct itself over the long run. This "long run" can
represent a timeframe of as long as several years, in some cases.

Furthermore, the numbers that a fundamentalist analyzes are only released over long
periods of time. Financial statements are filed quarterly and changes in earnings per share
don't emerge on a daily basis like price and volume information. Also remember that
fundamentals are the actual characteristics of a business. New management can't
implement sweeping changes overnight and it takes time to create new products, marketing
campaigns, supply chains, etc. Part of the reason that fundamental analysts use a long-term
timeframe, therefore, is because the data they use to analyze a stock is generated much
more slowly than the price and volume data used by technical analysts.

Trading Versus Investing

Not only is technical analysis more short term in nature that fundamental analysis, but the
goals of a purchase (or sale) of a stock are usually different for each approach. In general,
technical analysis is used for a trade, whereas fundamental analysis is used to make an
investment. Investors buy assets they believe can increase in value, while traders buy
assets they believe they can sell to somebody else at a greater price. The line between a

34
trade and an investment can be blurry, but it does characterize a difference between the two
schools.

According to Achelis "Technical analysis is the process of analyzing a security’s historical


prices in an effort to determine probable future prices."

According to Edwards, Magee and Bassetti "It refers to the study of the action of the
market itself as opposed to the study of the goods in which the market deals. Technical
Analysis is the science of recording, usually in graphic form, the actual history of trading
(price changes, volume of transactions, etc.) in a certain stock or in “the Averages” and
then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend."

According to Murphy "Technical analysis is the study of market action, primarily through
the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends. The term “market
action” includes the three principal sources of information available to the technician—
price, volume, and open interest."

According to Pring "The art of technical analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend
reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence
shows or proves that the trend has reversed. [...] Therefore, technical analysis is based on
the assumption that people will continue to make the same mistakes they have made in the
past."

According to Cory Janssen, Chad Langager and Casey Murphy “Technical analysis
is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics generated by market activity,
such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's
intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest
future acti

THE CRITICS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Some critics see technical analysis as a form of black magic. Don't be surprised to see them
question the validity of the discipline to the point where they mock its supporters. In fact,
technical analysis has only recently begun to enjoy some mainstream credibility. While
most analysts on Wall Street focus on the fundamental side, just about any major
brokerage now employs technical analysts as well.

35
Much of the criticism of technical analysis has its roots in academic theory - specifically
the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). This theory says that the market's price is always
the correct one - any past trading information is already reflected in the price of the stock
and, therefore, any analysis to find undervalued securities is useless.

There are three versions of EMH. In the first, called weak form efficiency, all past price
information is already included in the current price. According to weak form efficiency,
technical analysis can't predict future movements because all past information has already
been accounted for and, therefore, analyzing the stock’s past price movements will provide
no insight into its future movements. In the second, semi-strong form efficiency,
fundamental analysis is also claimed to be of little use in finding investment opportunities.
The third is strong form efficiency, which states that all information in the market is
accounted for in a stock's price and neither technical nor fundamental can provide investors
with an edge. The vast majority of academics believe in at least the weak version of EMH,
therefore, from their point of view, if technical analysis works, market efficiency will be
called into question.

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CO-EXISTENCE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS &FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Although technical analysis and fundamental analysis are seen by many as polar opposites
- the oil and water of investing - many market participants have experienced great success
by combining the two. For example, some fundamental analysts use technical analysis
techniques to figure out the best time to enter into an undervalued security. Oftentimes, this
situation occurs when the security is severely oversold. By timing entry into a security, the
gains on the investment can be greatly improved.

Alternatively, some technical traders might look at fundamentals to add strength to


a technical signal. For example, if a sell signal is given through technical patterns and
indicators, a technical trader might look to reaffirm his or her decision by looking at some
key fundamental data. Oftentimes, having both the fundamentals and technical’s on your
side can provide the best-case scenario for a trade.

While mixing some of the components of technical and fundamental analysis is not
well received by the most devoted groups in each school, there are certainly benefits to at
least understanding both schools of thought.

TECHNICAL TOOLS

In Technical Analysis, there are a lot of tools and strategies that enable us to draw
necessary conclusions at the time of taking important decisions. Some of the most
applicable and appreciated tools are discussed below:

SUPPORT AND REGISTANCE

A support level is a price level where the price tends to find support as it is going
down. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break
through it. However, once the price has passed this level, by an amount exceeding some
noise, it is likely to continue dropping until it finds another support level.

A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price tends to
find resistance as it is going up. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off this
level rather than break through it. However, once the price has passed this level, by an
amount exceeding some noise, it is likely that it will continue rising until it finds another
resistance level.

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Once you understand the concept of a trend, the next major concept is that of
support and resistance. You'll often hear technical analysts talk about the ongoing battle
between the bulls and the bears, or the struggle between buyers (demand) and sellers
(supply). This is revealed by the prices a security seldom moves above (resistance) or
below (support).

FIGURE NO.: 3.1

FIGURE TITLE: SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

SOURCE: www.metastock.com

As it can be seen in this Figure, support is the price level through which a stock or
market seldom falls (illustrated by the blue arrows). Resistance, on the other hand, is the
price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses (illustrated by the red arrows).

Why does it happen?

These support and resistance levels are seen as important in terms of market psychology
and supply and demand. Support and resistance levels are the levels at which a lot of
traders are willing to buy the stock (in the case of a support) or sell it (in the case of
resistance). When these trend lines are broken, the supply and demand and the psychology
behind the stock's movements is thought to have shifted, in which case new levels of
support and resistance will likely be established.

The Importance of Support and Resistance

Support and resistance analysis is an important part of trends because it can be used to
make trading decisions and identify when a trend is reversing. For example, if a trader
identifies an important level of resistance that has been tested several times but never
broken, he or she may decide to take profits as the security moves toward this point
because it is unlikely that it will move past this level.

38
Support and resistance levels both test and confirm trends and need to be monitored by
anyone who uses technical analysis. As long as the price of the share remains between
these levels of support and resistance, the trend is likely to continue. It is important to note,
however, that a break beyond a level of support or resistance does not always have to be a
reversal. For example, if prices moved above the resistance level of an up trending
channel, the trend have accelerated and not reversed. This means that the price
appreciation is expected to be faster than it was in the channel.

Being aware of these important support and resistance points should affect the way
that you trade a stock. Traders should avoid placing orders at these major points, as the
area around them is usually marked by a lot of volatility. If you feel confident about
making a trade near a support or resistance level, it is important that you follow this simple
rule: do not place orders directly at the support or resistance level. This is because in many
cases, the price never actually reaches the whole number, but flirts with it instead. So if
you're bullish on a stock that is moving toward an important support level, do not place the
trade at the support level. Instead, place it above the support level, but within a few points.
On the other hand, if you are placing stops or short selling, set up your trade price at or
below the level of support.

Round Numbers and Support and Resistance

One type of universal support and resistance that tends to be seen across a large
number of securities is round numbers. Round numbers like 10, 20, 35, 50, 100 and 1,000
tend be important in support and resistance levels because they often represent the major
psychological turning points at which many traders will make buy or sell decisions.

Buyers will often purchase large amounts of stock once the price starts to fall
toward a major round number such as INR 50, which makes it more difficult for shares to
fall below the level. On the other hand, sellers start to sell off a stock as it moves toward a
round number peak, making it difficult to move past this upper level as well. It is the
increased buying and selling pressure at these levels that makes them important points of
support and resistance and, in many cases, major psychological points as well.

Role Reversal

Once a resistance or support level is broken, its role is reversed. If the price falls
below a support level, that level will become resistance. If the price rises above a
resistance level, it will often become support. As the price moves past a level of support or
resistance, it is thought that supply and demand has shifted, causing the breached level to
39
reverse its role. For a true reversal to occur, however, it is important that the price make a
strong move through either the support or resistance.

FIGURE NO.: 3.2

FIGURE TITLE: ROLE REVERSAL

SOURCE: www.trending163.com

For example, as you can see in above, the dotted line is shown as a level of
resistance that has prevented the price from heading higher on two previous occasions
(Points 1 and 2). However, once the resistance is broken, it becomes a level of support
(shown by Points 3 and 4) by propping up the price and preventing it from heading lower
again.

Many traders who begin using technical analysis find this concept hard to believe
and don't realize that this phenomenon occurs rather frequently, even with some of the
most well-known companies.

In almost every case, a stock will have both a level of support and a level of
resistance and will trade in this range as it bounces between these levels. This is most often
seen when a stock is trading in a generally sideways manner as the price moves through
successive peaks and troughs, testing resistance and support.

VOLUME

Volume is simply the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given period
of time, usually a day. Higher volume means the security has been more active. To
determine the movement of the volume (up or down), chartists look at the volume bars that
can usually be found at the bottom of any chart. Volume bars illustrate how many shares
have traded per period and show trends in the same way that prices do.

FIGURE NO.: 3.3

40
FIGURE TITLE: VOLUME OF SHARES

SOURCE: www.metastock.com

Why Volume is important?

Volume is an important aspect of technical analysis because it is used to confirm


trends and chart patterns. Any price movement up or down with relatively high volume is
seen as a stronger, more relevant move than a similar move with weak volume. Therefore,
if you are looking at a large price movement, you should also examine the volume to see
whether it tells the same story.

Say, for example, that a stock jumps 5% in one trading day after being in a long
downtrend. Is this a sign of a trend reversal? This is where volume helps traders. If volume
is high during the day relative to the average daily volume, it is a sign that the reversal is
probably for real. On the other hand, if the volume is below average, there may not be
enough conviction to support a true trend reversal.

Volume should move with the trend. If prices are moving in an upward trend,
volume should increase (and vice versa). If the previous relationship between volume and
price movements starts to deteriorate, it is usually a sign of weakness in the trend. For
example, if the stock is in an uptrend but the up trading days are marked with lower
volume, it is a sign that the trend is starting to lose its legs and may soon end.

When volume tells a different story, it is a case of divergence, which refers to a


contradiction between two different indicators. The simplest example of divergence is a
clear upward trend on declining volume.

Volume and Chart Patterns


41
The other use of volume is to confirm chart patterns. Patterns such as head and
shoulders, triangles, flags and other price patterns can be confirmed with volume. In most
chart patterns, there are several pivotal points that are vital to what the chart is able to
convey to chartists. Basically, if the volume is not there to confirm the pivotal moments of
a chart pattern, the quality of the signal formed by the pattern is weakened.

Volume Precedes Price

Another important idea in technical analysis is that price is preceded by volume.


Volume is closely monitored by technicians and chartists to form ideas on upcoming trend
reversals. If volume is starting to decrease in an uptrend, it is usually a sign that the upward
run is about to end.

3.6.3 RANDOM WALK HYPOTHESIS

The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock market prices
evolve according to a random walk and thus the prices of the stock market cannot be
predicted. It has been described as 'jibing' with the efficient market hypothesis. Economists
have historically accepted the random walk hypothesis. They have run several tests and
continue to believe that stock prices are completely random because of the efficiency of the
market.

TECHNICAL TRENDS

One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of trend. The
meaning in finance isn't all that different from the general definition of the term - a trend is
really nothing more than the general direction in which a security or market is headed. It is
important to be able to understand and identify trends so that you can trade with rather than
against them. Two important sayings in technical analysis are "the trend is your friend" and
"don't buck the trend," illustrating how important trend analysis is for technical traders.

There are three types of trends as:

Up-Trend

As the names imply, when each successive peak and trough is higher, it's referred
to as an upward trend.

Downtrend

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It describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is
downward. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and trough is lower
than the ones found earlier in the trend.

FIGURE NO.: 3.4

FIGURE TITLE: DOWNTREND OF SHARE PRICE

SOURCE: www.investopedia.com

Downtrend is the opposite of uptrend. Many traders seek to avoid


downtrends because they can drastically affect the value of any investment. A
downtrend can last for minutes, days, weeks, months or even years so identifying a
downtrend early is very important. Once a downtrend has been established (series of lower
peaks) a trader should be very cautious about entering into any new long positions.

Sideways/Horizontal Trends

It describes the horizontal price movement that occurs when the forces of supply
and demand are nearly equal. A sideways trend is often regarded as a period of
consolidation before the price continues in the direction of the previous move.

A sideways price trend is also commonly known as a "horizontal trend". Sideways


trend is generally a result of the price traveling between strong levels of support and
resistance. It is not uncommon to see a horizontal trend dominate the price action of a
specific asset for a prolonged period before starting a move higher or lower. Brief
consolidation is often needed during large price runs, as it is nearly impossible for such
large price moves to sustain themselves over the longer term.

3.6.5 TREND LENGTHS

Along with these three trend directions, there are three trend classifications. A trend of
any direction can be classified as a long-term trend, intermediate trend or a short term

43
trend. In terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally categorized as one lasting
longer than a year. An intermediate trend is considered to last between one and three
months and a near-term trend is anything less than a month. A long-term trend is composed
of several intermediate trends, which often move against the direction of the major trend. If
the major trend is upward and there is a downward correction in price movement followed
by a continuation of the uptrend, the correction is considered to be an intermediate trend.
The short-term trends are components of both major and intermediate trends. Take a look a
Figure 4 to get a sense of how these three trend lengths might look.

FIGURE NO.:3.5

FIGURE TITLE: TRENDLENGTHS

SOURCE: www.metastock.com

When analyzing trends, it is important that the chart is constructed to best reflect the
type of trend being analyzed. To help identify long-term trends, weekly charts or daily
charts spanning a five-year period are used by chartists to get a better idea of the long-term
trend. Daily data charts are best used when analyzing both intermediate and short-term
trends. It is also important to remember that the longer the trend, the more important it is;
for example, a one-month trend is not as significant as a five-year trend.

3.6.6 TRENDLINE

A trendline is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to represent the
trend in the market or a stock. Drawing a trendline is as simple as drawing a straight line
that follows a general trend. These lines are used to clearly show the trend and are also
used in the identification of trend reversals.

As it can be seen in the figure, an upward trendline is drawn at the lows of an upward
trend. This line represents the support the stock has every time it moves from a high to a
44
low. Notice how the price is propped up by this support. This type of trendline helps
traders to anticipate the point at which a stock's price will begin moving upwards again.
Similarly, a downward trendline is drawn at the highs of the downward trend. This line
represents the resistance level that a stock faces every time the price moves from a low to a
high.

FIGURE NO.: 3.6

FIGURE TITLE: TRENDLINE

SOURCE: www.metastock.com

3.6.7 CHANNELS

A channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trendlines that act as strong
areas of support and resistance. The upper trend line connects a series of highs, while the
lower trendline connects a series of lows. A channel can slope upward, downward or
sideways but, regardless of the direction, the interpretation remains the same. Traders will
expect a given security to trade between the two levels of support and resistance until it
breaks beyond one of the levels, in which case traders can expect a sharp move in the
direction of the break. Along with clearly displaying the trend, channels are mainly used to
illustrate important areas of support and resistance.

FIGURE TITLE: CHANNEL

45
SOURCE: www.metastock.com

Figure illustrates a descending channel on a stock chart; the upper trendline has
been placed on the highs and the lower trendline is on the lows. The price has bounced off
of these lines several times, and has remained range-bound for several months. As long as
the price does not fall below the lower line or move beyond the upper resistance, the range-
bound downtrend is expected to continue.

3.6.8 TECHNICAL CHARTS

In technical analysis, charts are similar to the charts that you see in any business
setting. A chart is simply a graphical representation of a series of prices over a set time
frame. For example, a chart may show a stock's price movement over a one-year period,
where each point on the graph represents the closing price for each day the stock is traded:

SOURCE: www.stockcharts.com

The above figure provides an example of a basic chart. It is a representation of the


price movements of a stock over a 1.5 year period. The bottom of the graph, running
horizontally (x-axis), is the date or time scale. On the right hand side, running vertically (y-
axis), the price of the security is shown. By looking at the graph we see that in October
2004 (Point 1), the price of this stock was around INR 245, whereas in June 2005 (Point 2),
46
the stock's price is around INR 265. This tells us that the stock has risen between October
2004 and June 2005.

3.6.8.1 CHART PROPERTIES

There are several things that you should be aware of when looking at a chart, as
these factors can affect the information that is provided. They include the time scale, the
price scale and the price point properties used.

1. The Time Scale

The time scale refers to the range of dates at the bottom of the chart, which can
vary from decades to seconds. The most frequently used time scales are intraday, daily,
weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually. The shorter the time frame, the more detailed the
chart. Each data point can represent the closing price of the period or show the open, the
high, the low and the close depending on the chart used.

Intraday charts plot price movement within the period of one day. This means that the time
scale could be as short as five minutes or could cover the whole trading day from the
opening bell to the closing bell.

Daily charts are comprised of a series of price movements in which each price point on the
chart is a full day’s trading condensed into one point. Again, each point on the graph can
be simply the closing price or can entail the open, high, low and close for the stock over
the day. These data points are spread out over weekly, monthly and even yearly time scales
to monitor both short-term and intermediate trends in price movement.

Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts are used to analyze longer term trends in the
movement of a stock's price. Each data point in these graphs will be a condensed version of
what happened over the specified period. So for a weekly chart, each data point will be a
representation of the price movement of the week. For example, if you are looking at a
chart of weekly data spread over a five-year period and each data point is the closing price
for the week, the price that is plotted will be the closing price on the last trading day of the
week, which is usually a Friday.

2. The Price Scale and Price Point Properties

The price scale is on the right-hand side of the chart. It shows a stock's current price and
compares it to past data points. This may seem like a simple concept in that the price scale
goes from lower prices to higher prices as you move along the scale from the bottom to the
top. The problem, however, is in the structure of the scale itself. A scale can either be

47
constructed in a linear (arithmetic) or logarithmic way, and both of these options are
available on most charting services.

If a price scale is constructed using a linear scale, the space between each price point (10,
20, 30, 40) is separated by an equal amount. A price move from 10 to 20 on a linear scale
is the same distance on the chart as a move from 40 to 50. In other words, the price scale
measures moves in absolute terms and does not show the effects of percent change.

FIGURE NO.: 3.9


FIGURE TITLE: PRICE SCALE

SOURCE: www.metastock.com

If a price scale is in logarithmic terms, then the distance between points will be
equal in terms of percent change. A price change from 10 to 20 is a 100% increase in the
price while a move from 40 to 50 is only a 25% change, even though they are represented
by the same distance on a linear scale. On a logarithmic scale, the distance of the 100%
price change from 10 to 20 will not be the same as the 25% change from 40 to 50. In this
case, the move from 10 to 20 is represented by a larger space one the chart, while the move
from 40 to 50, is represented by a smaller space because, percentage-wise, it indicates a
smaller move. In Figure 2, the logarithmic price scale on the right leaves the same amount
of space between 10 and 20 as it does between 20 and 40 because these both represent
100% increases.

3.6.8.2 TYPES OF CHARTS

48
There are four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending
on the information that they are seeking and their individual skill levels. The chart types
are: the line chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart and the point and figure chart.

1. Line Chart

The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents only the
closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the closing prices
over the time frame. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for
the individual points such as the high, low and opening prices. However, the closing price
is often considered to be the most important price in stock data compared to the high and
low for the day and this is why it is the only value used in line charts.

FIGURE NO.: 3.10

FIGURE TITLE: LINE CHART

SOURCE: www.metastock.com

2. Bar Charts

One of the basic tools of technical analysis is the Bar Chart, where the open, close,
high, and low prices of stocks or other financial instruments are embedded in bars which
are plotted as a series of prices over a specific time period. Bar charts allow traders to see
patterns more easily. In other words, each bar is actually just a set of 4 prices for a given
day, or some other time period, that is connected by a bar in a specific way—hence, it is
often referred to as a price bar.

49
FIGURE NO.: 3.11

FIGURE TITLE: PRICE BAR

SOURCE:

www.thismatter.com

A price bar shows the opening price of the financial instrument, which is the price
at the beginning of the time period, as a left horizontal line, and the closing price, which is
the last price for the period, as a right horizontal line. These horizontal lines are also called
tick marks. The high price is represented by the top of the bar and the low price is
depicted by the bottom of the bar.

The bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces of
information to each data point. The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines that
represent each data point. This vertical line represents the high and low for the trading
period, along with the closing price. The close and open are represented on the vertical line
by a horizontal dash. The opening price on a bar chart is illustrated by the dash that is
located on the left side of the vertical bar. Conversely, the close is represented by the dash
on the right. Generally, if the left dash (open) is lower than the right dash (close) then the
bar will be shaded black, representing an up period for the stock, which means it has
gained value. A bar that is colored red signals that the stock has gone down in value over
that period. When this is the case, the dash on the right (close) is lower than the dash on the
left (open).Following is a bar chart that represents the details:

FIGURE NO.: 3.16

FIGURE TITLE: BAR CHART

50
3. Candlestick Charts

Another type of chart used in technical analysis is the candlestick chart, so called
because the main component of the chart representing prices looks like a candlestick, with
a thick body, called the real body, and usually a line extending above and below it, called
the upper shadow and lower shadow, respectively. The top of the upper shadow
represents the high price, while the bottom of the lower shadow represents the low price.
Patterns are formed both by the real body and the shadows. Candlestick patterns are most
useful over short periods of time, and mostly have significance at the top of an uptrend or
the bottom of a downtrend, when the patterns most often signify a reversal of the trend.

FIGURE NO.: 3.13

FIGURE TITLE: CANDLE-STICK BAR PARTS

SOURCE: www.wikipedia.com

While the candlestick chart shows basically the same information as the bar chart,
certain patterns are more apparent in the candlestick chart. The candlestick chart
emphasizes opening and closing prices. The top and bottom of the real body represents the
opening and closing prices. Whether the top represents the opening or closing price
depends on the color of the real body—if it is white, then the top represents the close;
black, or some other dark color, indicates that the top was the opening price. The length of

51
the real body shows the difference between the opening and closing prices. Obviously,
white real bodies indicate bullishness, while black real bodies indicate bearishness, and
their pattern is easily observable in a candlestick chart.

The candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in the way that it is
visually constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has a thin vertical line
showing the period's trading range. The difference comes in the formation of a wide bar on
the vertical line, which illustrates the difference between the open and close. There are two
color constructs for days up and one for days that the price falls. When the price of the
stock is up and closes above the opening trade, the candlestick will usually be white or
clear. If the stock has traded down for the period, then the candlestick will usually be red
or black, depending on the site. If the stock's price has closed above the previous day’s
close but below the day's open, the candlestick will be black or filled with the color that is
used to indicate an up day.

It can be illustrated as:

FIGURE NO.: 3.14

FIGURE TITLE: CANDLE-STICK CHART

SOURCE: www.metastock.com

4. Point-and-Figure Charts:

Point-and-figure charts list only significant price information as columns of X's


and O's without regard to time, so that trends, resistance and support levels are more
apparent. Although time is depicted on the horizontal axis, the units of time are determined
by when the trend changes.

There are several ways of constructing point-and-figure charts, but all are based on box
size, which is the minimum price differential necessary before a price is recorded as an X

52
or an O. Columns of X's show an uptrend, and O's show a downtrend. Generally, closing
price differentials are used. There is no high, low, opening, or closing prices recorded,
since only the change in price greater than the box size is recorded as an X if the price
differential is up or as an O if it is down. Each consecutive X is recorded in the same

53
CHAPTER- 4
DATA ANALYSIS
&
INTERPRETATIONS

54
CANARA BANK, HDFC BANK, SBI BANK AND UBI 3 DAYS AVERAGE
MOVING CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE (MACD)FOR THE MONTH OF
JAN,FEB & MARCH-16:-

3days
moving
S.No Date Open Close Returns MACD
avg
method
1 2-Jan-16 366 366.6 0.16    
2 3-Jan-16 371.4 384.5 3.53    
3 4-Jan-16 380.6 387.75 1.88 1.86 -0.02
4 5-Jan-16 387 382.2 -1.24 1.39 2.63
5 6-Jan-16 382.2 379.35 -0.75 -0.04 0.71
6 9-Jan-16 379 394.4 4.06 0.69 -3.37
7 10-Jan-16 398.45 416.65 3.56 2.29 -1.27
8 11-Jan-16 416 408.7 -0.80 2.28 3.08
9 16-Jan-16 409 416.8 0.93 1.23 0.30
10 13-Jan-16 416.7 407.8 -1.19 -0.35 0.83
11 16-Jan-16 404.9 410.16 1.30 0.35 -0.95
16 17-Jan-16 416.1 421.2 1.47 0.53 -0.94
13 18-Jan-16 422 407.35 -3.47 -0.24 3.24
14 19-Jan-16 411 420.65 2.35 0.16 -2.23
15 20-Jan-16 422.95 429.7 1.60 0.16 -1.44
16 23-Jan-16 433.1 431.8 -0.30 1.21 1.51
17 24-Jan-16 434.55 473.25 8.91 3.40 -5.51
18 25-Jan-16 480 479.95 -0.01 2.87 2.88
19 26-Jan-16 479.95 479.95 0.00 2.97 2.97
20 27-Jan-16 480 464.45 -3.24 -1.08 2.16
21 30-Jan-16 458.5 455.45 -0.67 -1.30 -0.64
22 31-Jan-16 456 470.85 3.26 -0.22 -3.47
23 1-Feb-16 472 471.5 -0.11 0.83 0.93
24 2-Feb-16 474.7 482.6 1.66 1.60 -0.06
25 3-Feb-16 482.65 483.4 0.16 0.57 0.42
26 6-Feb-16 491.5 511.4 4.05 1.96 -2.09
27 7-Feb-16 510 511.16 0.23 1.48 1.25
28 8-Feb-16 516 524.05 2.35 2.21 -0.14
29 9-Feb-16 522.9 526.16 0.62 1.07 0.45
30 10-Feb-16 526.35 526.35 0.00 0.99 0.99
31 13-Feb-16 528.5 527.45 -0.20 0.14 0.34
32 14-Feb-16 526 535.8 1.86 0.55 -1.31
33 16-Feb-16 539.9 550.1 1.89 1.18 -0.70
34 16-Feb-16 546.3 549.7 0.62 1.46 0.84
35 17-Feb-16 552 559.95 1.44 1.32 -0.16
36 20-Feb-16 559.95 559.95 0.00 0.69 0.69
37 21-Feb-16 558.5 554.3 -0.75 0.23 0.98
38 22-Feb-16 554.7 525.95 -5.18 -1.98 3.20
39 23-Feb-16 517.65 507.95 -1.87 -2.60 -0.73
40 24-Feb-16 513.8 501.4 -2.41 -3.16 -0.74
41 27-Feb-16 497.65 474.75 -4.60 -2.96 1.64
55
42 28-Feb-16 478.3 513.16 7.29 0.09 -7.20
43 29-Feb-16 524.9 510.16 -2.81 -0.04 2.77
44 1-Mar-16 504.5 501.4 -0.61 1.29 1.90
45 2-Mar-16 504 504.7 0.14 -1.10 -1.23
46 5-Mar-16 503 492.25 -2.14 -0.87 1.27
47 6-Mar-16 489.95 477.75 -2.49 -1.50 0.99
48 7-Mar-16 475.35 488.25 2.71 -0.64 -3.35
49 8-Mar-16 501.4 501.4 0.00 0.07 0.07
50 9-Mar-16 493 513.6 4.18 2.30 -1.88
51 16-Mar-16 525 518.25 -1.29 0.96 2.25
52 13-Mar-16 524.3 516.55 -1.48 0.47 1.95
53 14-Mar-16 524 526.25 0.43 -0.78 -1.21
54 16-Mar-16 537 506.05 -5.76 -2.27 3.49
55 16-Mar-16 501.1 490.75 -2.07 -2.47 -0.40
56 19-Mar-16 488 461.05 -5.52 -4.45 1.07
57 20-Mar-16 462 467.55 1.20 -2.13 -3.33
58 21-Mar-16 465 477 2.58 -0.58 -3.16
59 22-Mar-16 477.1 460.55 -3.47 0.10 3.57
60 23-Mar-16 460 463.16 0.68 -0.07 -0.75
61 26-Mar-16 463.16 446.45 -3.61 -2.13 1.48
62 27-Mar-16 451 453.7 0.60 -0.77 -1.37
63 28-Mar-16 451.5 454 0.55 -0.82 -1.37
64 29-Mar-16 453.3 455.3 0.44 0.53 0.09
65 30-Mar-16 453.25 473.65 4.50 1.83 -2.67

56
3days
moving
S.No Date Open Close Returns MACD
avg
method
1 2-Jan-16 1625.2 1629.65 0.27    
2 3-Jan-16 1648 1706.5 3.55    
3 4-Jan-16 1716 1695.16 -1.16 0.89 2.05
4 5-Jan-16 1695 1691.7 -0.19 0.73 0.93
5 6-Jan-16 1670 1676.16 0.37 -0.33 -0.70
6 9-Jan-16 1660 1637.75 -1.34 -0.39 0.95
7 10-Jan-16 1651 1702.05 3.09 0.71 -2.39
8 11-Jan-16 1706.7 1725.75 1.16 0.96 -0.16
9 16-Jan-16 1730 1760.7 1.77 1.99 0.22
10 13-Jan-16 1778 1777.16 -0.05 0.95 1.00
11 16-Jan-16 1760 1816.65 3.22 1.65 -1.57
16 17-Jan-16 1838.05 1842.85 0.26 1.14 0.88
13 18-Jan-16 1846 1863.6 0.95 1.48 0.52
14 19-Jan-16 1882 1883.7 0.09 0.43 0.34
15 20-Jan-16 1898 1931.8 1.78 0.94 -0.84
16 23-Jan-16 1938.8 1940.65 0.10 0.66 0.56
17 24-Jan-16 1931.1 2041.3 5.71 2.53 -3.18
18 25-Jan-16 2054.4 2056.6 0.11 1.97 1.86
19 26-Jan-16 2056.6 2056.6 0.00 1.94 1.94
20 27-Jan-16 2065.7 2042.6 -1.16 -0.34 0.78
21 30-Jan-16 2007 1990.7 -0.81 -0.64 0.17
22 31-Jan-16 2021 2061.05 1.98 0.02 -1.96
23 1-Feb-16 2054 2077.1 1.16 0.76 -0.36
24 2-Feb-16 2097 2072.65 -1.16 0.65 1.81
25 3-Feb-16 2065.05 2103.1 1.84 0.60 -1.24
26 6-Feb-16 2135 2163.05 1.31 0.67 -0.65
27 7-Feb-16 2175 2162.05 -1.06 0.70 1.76
28 8-Feb-16 2165.05 2175.4 0.48 0.25 -0.23
29 9-Feb-16 2160 2181.95 1.02 0.16 -0.87
30 10-Feb-16 2193 2172.5 -0.93 0.19 1.16
31 13-Feb-16 2173.7 2169 -2.06 -0.66 1.40
32 14-Feb-16 2131 2198.45 3.17 0.06 -3.11
33 16-Feb-16 2228.7 2250.5 0.98 0.70 -0.28
34 16-Feb-16 2247.7 2349.05 4.51 2.88 -1.62
35 17-Feb-16 2377 2416.75 1.67 2.39 0.71
36 20-Feb-16 2416.75 2416.75 0.00 2.06 2.06
37 21-Feb-16 2419 2451.75 1.35 1.01 -0.35
38 22-Feb-16 2458 2257.8 -8.14 -2.26 5.88
39 23-Feb-16 2255 2261.25 0.28 -2.17 -2.45
40 24-Feb-16 2279.5 2206.8 -3.19 -3.69 -0.50
41 27-Feb-16 2216.2 2165.1 -3.94 -2.28 1.65
42 28-Feb-16 2160 2229.55 3.70 -1.14 -4.84
43 29-Feb-16 2266.8 2243.4 -1.03 -0.42 0.61
57
44 1-Mar-16 2232 2219.75 -0.55 0.71 1.26
45 2-Mar-16 2225 2245.7 0.93 -0.22 -1.16
46 5-Mar-16 2232.1 2174.16 -2.60 -0.74 1.86
47 6-Mar-16 2162 2161 -0.05 -0.57 -0.52
48 7-Mar-16 2137 2141.05 0.19 -0.82 -1.01
49 8-Mar-16 2219.75 2219.75 0.00 0.05 0.05
50 9-Mar-16 2187 2222.3 1.61 0.60 -1.01
51 16-Mar-16 2305.1 2310.25 0.22 0.61 0.39
52 13-Mar-16 2341 2327.65 -0.57 0.42 0.99
53 14-Mar-16 2367 2351.5 -0.65 -0.33 0.32
54 16-Mar-16 2356 2299.45 -2.40 -1.21 1.19
55 16-Mar-16 2299.8 2227.95 -3.16 -2.06 1.06
56 19-Mar-16 2225.25 2169.65 -2.95 -2.82 0.16
57 20-Mar-16 2169.85 2184.16 1.13 -1.65 -2.77
58 21-Mar-16 2182.1 2233.55 2.36 0.18 -2.18
59 22-Mar-16 2227 2160.6 -2.98 0.17 3.16
60 23-Mar-16 2173.25 2165.25 -0.37 -0.33 0.04
61 26-Mar-16 2164.7 2118.3 -2.14 -1.83 0.31
62 27-Mar-16 2165 2169.8 -1.17 -1.23 -0.06
63 28-Mar-16 2163.85 2081.16 -2.01 -1.77 0.24
64 29-Mar-16 2051.05 2061.6 0.51 -0.89 -1.40
65 30-Mar-16 2070.1 2095 1.20 -0.10 -1.30

58
CANARA BANK, HDFC BANK, SBI BANK 3 DAYS AVERAGE
MOVING CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE (MACD)FOR THE
MONTH OF JAN,FEB & MARCH-16:-
3days
Returns moving avg MACD
S.No Date Open Close method
1 2-Jan-16 171.16 173.05 1.11    
2 3-Jan-16 174.3 175.16 0.49    
3 4-Jan-16 176.75 174.75 -1.13 0.16 1.29
4 5-Jan-16 175 171.5 -2.00 -0.88 1.16
5 6-Jan-16 172 168.5 -2.03 -1.72 0.31
6 9-Jan-16 170.1 169.95 -0.09 -1.37 -1.29
7 10-Jan-16 170.1 178.05 4.67 0.85 -3.82
8 11-Jan-16 180 186.65 3.69 2.76 -0.93
9 16-Jan-16 186.65 191.8 2.76 3.71 0.95
10 13-Jan-16 195 189.95 -2.59 1.29 3.88
11 16-Jan-16 188.8 186.6 -1.17 -0.33 0.83
16 17-Jan-16 189 189.3 0.16 -1.20 -1.36
13 18-Jan-16 185.6 186.25 0.35 -0.22 -0.57
14 19-Jan-16 186.65 188.16 0.80 0.44 -0.37
15 20-Jan-16 191.45 196.25 2.51 1.22 -1.29
16 23-Jan-16 197 204.6 3.86 2.39 -1.47
17 24-Jan-16 205.4 216.85 3.63 3.33 -0.30
18 25-Jan-16 216 206.75 -3.84 1.22 5.05
19 26-Jan-16 206.75 206.75 0.00 -0.07 -0.07
20 27-Jan-16 205.5 216.45 4.84 0.33 -4.51
21 30-Jan-16 214 216.05 0.49 1.78 1.29
22 31-Jan-16 216.8 229.16 5.70 3.68 -2.02
23 1-Feb-16 223.55 234.16 4.74 3.64 -1.10
24 2-Feb-16 238.8 234 -2.01 2.81 4.82
25 3-Feb-16 234.5 229.1 -2.30 0.14 2.45
26 6-Feb-16 234.3 240.05 2.45 -0.62 -3.07
27 7-Feb-16 242 238.2 -1.57 -0.47 1.10
28 8-Feb-16 240 237.85 -0.90 0.00 0.89
29 9-Feb-16 237.7 253.9 6.82 1.45 -5.37
30 10-Feb-16 253.7 250.75 -1.16 1.59 2.75
31 13-Feb-16 251.75 251.8 0.02 1.89 1.87
32 14-Feb-16 252 255.6 1.43 0.10 -1.33
33 16-Feb-16 262 258.2 -1.45 0.00 1.45
34 16-Feb-16 261.2 256.9 -1.65 -0.56 1.09
35 17-Feb-16 260 263.4 1.31 -0.60 -1.90
36 20-Feb-16 263.4 263.4 0.00 -0.11 -0.11
37 21-Feb-16 265 267.1 0.79 0.70 -0.09
38 22-Feb-16 269.5 249.2 -7.53 -2.25 5.29
39 23-Feb-16 245 247 0.82 -1.97 -2.79
40 24-Feb-16 249.05 241.8 -2.91 -3.21 -0.30
41 27-Feb-16 242.05 223.05 -7.85 -3.31 4.53
42 28-Feb-16 227.16 234.35 3.17 -2.53 -5.70
43 29-Feb-16 240 233.2 -2.83 -2.50 0.33
44 1-Mar-16 234 228.75 -2.24 -0.64 1.61
45 2-Mar-16 231.2 231.65 0.19 -1.63 -1.82
46 5-Mar-16 230.65 227 -1.58 -1.21 0.37
59
47 6-Mar-16 222 227.1 2.30 0.30 -1.99
48 7-Mar-16 228 231.2 1.40 0.71 -0.70
49 8-Mar-16 228.75 228.75 0.00 1.23 1.23
50 9-Mar-16 233.75 236.9 1.35 0.92 -0.43
51 16-Mar-16 245 237.4 -3.10 -0.58 2.52
52 13-Mar-16 240 237.6 -1.00 -0.92 0.08
53 14-Mar-16 241.2 247 2.40 -0.57 -2.97
54 16-Mar-16 248.7 240.16 -3.44 -0.68 2.76
55 16-Mar-16 240.6 229.85 -4.47 -1.83 2.63
56 19-Mar-16 232.4 219.8 -5.42 -4.44 0.98
57 20-Mar-16 220 224.25 1.93 -2.65 -4.58
58 21-Mar-16 218 227.1 4.17 0.23 -3.95
59 22-Mar-16 227.75 216.05 -5.14 0.32 5.46
60 23-Mar-16 216.5 218.5 0.92 -0.01 -0.94
61 26-Mar-16 218.5 216.7 -2.65 -2.29 0.37
62 27-Mar-16 217.7 216.9 -0.37 -0.70 -0.33
63 28-Mar-16 217 222.25 2.42 -0.20 -2.62
64 29-Mar-16 220 229.7 4.41 2.16 -2.26
65 30-Mar-16 230.5 234.85 1.89 2.91 1.02

60
CHAPTER-5
FINDINGS,
SUGGESTIONS,
CONLUSIONS

61
FINDINGS

1. It is interesting to note that NIFTY show lowest growth in the mo nth where it shows

highest growth in the previous year.

2. It is found that experience is repeating again market shows highest growth in the month

of April that is 86.99%

3. It is another interesting fin ding is that for the last five years market expects one year

market stood peaked up only in the month of April?

4. While we are looking trend percentage the researcher found that in the month of

December market had registered highest growth for the last five years.

5. When short term moving average crosses above the long term average than the market

shows upwards trend.

6. Inflation is also play an important role in the market growth.

62
SUGGESTIONS

The strategies to improve the Financial Performance of the Company is

It would be good for the company, if it can go for Options to reduce the risk.

It would be beneficial to the company to use Technical Analysis for forecasting the prices

of the stock and take precautions beforehand.

It would be good to follow the same method since the company is growth stage.

63
CONCLUSION
Analyzed the stock price movements in NSE. There was in the stock prices.

Calculated the Returns and Risk with the help of Close stock prices of the day.

The above all bank are moving less volatile for the month jan -march

64
WEBLIOGRAPHY

1. www.edelweiss.com

2. www.nseindia.com

3. www.finance.indiamart.com

4. www.answers.oneindia.in/index.php?article

5. www.surfindia.com/finance/national-stock-exchange.html

6. www.moneycontrol.com

7. www.economywatch.com

8. www.nationalstockexchange.com

FINANCE MANAGEMENT –PRASANNA CHANDRA

FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING –HENRY FAYAL

65

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