MARKET

RESEARCH
REPORT
OCTOBER 2020

Maize | Rice Bran | Cottonseed Oil Cake

 Contents

Maize 03

Outlook and Review

Maize Trade Scenario
Maize Crop Condition and Arrival Scenario for the Kharif 2020-21
First Estimate of Kharif Production
International Maize Market Summary
India Maize Balance Sheet
Consumption Break Up
Domestic Price Outlook
Maize Exports-Imports during September 2020
CBOT Maize Future Prices
Spot Price and Arrival Comparison

Rice Bran 09

Domestic Market Summary

Fundamental Outlook for Coming Month
State wise Paddy Sowing Coverage for Kharif 2020-21
Paddy & De-Oiled Rice Bran Production
Rice Bran Exports
De-Oiled Rice Bran Spot Prices Comparison
Price Trend & Outlook
Feed Industries Demand Scenario
Country wise Import & Export Data

Cottonseed Oil Cake 14

Domestic Market Summary

State-wise Cotton Sowing Coverage for Kharif 2020-21
Cottonseed & Cottonseed Oil Cake Production
Cottonseed Oil Cake Exports & Imports
Cottonseed Oil Cake Spot Prices Comparison
Price Outlook
NCDEX Cottonseed Oil Cake Futures

NCDFIeMarket.com 2
 Maize

AgriWatch.com 3
Outlook and Review

Domestic Maize Market Summary International Maize Market Summary

Maize cash markets except Gulabbagh market showed Maize on CBOT rose by 7.67 US$ per MT to 156.88 US$
a weaktrend during the month of October 2020 per MT for December 2020 contract compared to
compared to previous month, due to low quality arrivals previous month. Agriwatch expects that increase in
and was weak compared to corresponding period last export demand for U.S Maize in near term would
year, due to sluggish feed makers demand. For the support to CBOT Maize. However, new crop arrivals
month of November 2020, Agriwatch expects that could limit the gain.
maize would trade steady to slightly firm as demand for
good quality material has increased. Announcement by USDA decreased its World Maize ending stock estimates
Telangana and Madhya Pradesh government to procure by 6.34 MMT to 300.45 MMT for 2020-21 based on a
the entire quantity of maize and 2 lakh Metric Tonnes by decrease in production estimates, which would support
Karnataka government would also support the market to global Maize market.
to trade firm ahead. However, crop arrival pressure in
coming weeks could limit the gain. In U.S., 82% crop of Maize has been harvested as of
November 01, 2020, up 33 percentage points from
Maize Trade Scenario corresponding period last year.

In Bihar, Maize is being traded at Rs.1,450-1,600 per India Maize Balance Sheet
quintal (Bilty Price). Hyderabad poultry feed makers are
buying Maize at Rs.1,500-1,550 per quintal, sourced
from Nizamabad region. It is also moving towards Maize Year (Oct-Sep) 2019-20E 2020-21F
Bengaluru, Nammakal and Sangliat at Rs.1,500,
Rs.1,560-1,570 and Rs.1,600 per quintal, respectively,
which are all sourced from Davangere region of Opening Stocks (MMT) 01.42 03.45
Karnataka. Production (MMT) 25.38 24.48
Imports (MMT) 00.34 00.02
Maize Crop Condition and Arrival Scenario for
Total Supply (MMT) 27.14 27.95
the Kharif 2020-21
Export (MMT) 01.07 01.00
In Nizamabad, new crop arrivals contain moisture of Domestic Consumption (MMT) 22.62 22.38
upto 22% and damaged upto 7% while in Warangal
Total Demand (MMT) 23.69 23.38
region, it contains damaged upto 20%. In Karnataka,
crop arrivals contain moisture of upto 22%. Ending Stock (MMT) 03.45 04.57
Monthly Use 01.97 01.95
I n V i s a k h a p a t n a m , V i z i a n a g a r a m , G u n t u r, Stock to Use Ratio 14.54% 19.53%
Anantapuram, Kurnool, Chittoor, Krishna and YSR
Kadapa districts of Andhra Pradesh, around 5,942
hectares area of Maize has been affected by fall-
armyworm; out of which 4,277 hectares has been The 2020-21 season beginning October 2020, start with
treated. an opening stock of 3.45 MMT and is expected to end in
September 2021 with 4.57 MMT.
First Estimate of Kharif Production
Total Maize production in India is estimated at around
The 1st Advance Estimates of Kharif production of 24.48 MMT in 2020-21 against our total annual demand
Maize for 2020-21 has pegged Maize production at including exports, of 23.38 MMT.
19.88 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT) against set target of
22 MMT for 2020-21. However, Agriwatch's first As ending stock is expected to be significantly
estimate for the Maize production in 2020-21 Kharif higher than in 2019-20; Indian Maize prices
season is 18.33 MMT with average yield of 2.20 MT per would take clue from that.
hectare.
E= AW Estimates, F=AW Forecast

NCDFIeMarket.com 4
Consumption Break Up (Quantity in MMT)

Consumption Break Up 2019-20E 2020-21F

Poultry & Cattle Feed 14.27 13.95
Starch & Brewery 04.66 04.62
Human Consumption 01.85 01.86
Seed 00.27 00.27
Shortage & Wastage 01.02 00.98
Storage & Moisture Loss 00.56 00.71
Total Domestic Consumption 22.62 22.38

On the Export-Import Front

280
Figure in US $ /MT

240
200
160
120
03-09-20

06-09-20

09-09-20

12-09-20

15-09-20

18-09-20

21-09-20

24-09-20

27-09-20

30-09-20

03-10-20

06-10-20

09-10-20

12-10-20

15-10-20

18-10-20

21-10-20

24-10-20

27-10-20

30-10-20
Argentina Brazil US India

On the Export-Import Front

320
Figure in US $ /MT

300
280
260
240
220
200
180
03-09-20

06-09-20

09-09-20

12-09-20

15-09-20

18-09-20

21-09-20

24-09-20

27-09-20

30-09-20

03-10-20

06-10-20

09-10-20

12-10-20

15-10-20

18-10-20

21-10-20

24-10-20

27-10-20

30-10-20

Argentina Brazil US India

International Corn Outlook

As depicted by the above data, there is parity for Indian Maize as gap of prices between India and other exporting
countries has narrowed.

AgriWatch.com 5
 for end users, in the current financial year 2020-21. At
Maize Exports
present, there is no import parity as Maize is trading
lower in the domestic markets due to demand
As per trade sources, India exported around 2,23,781
destruction from poultry feed industry on the fear of
MT of Maize in the month of September 2020 at an
COVID-19, hence there has been negligible imports.
average FoB of US$ 185.51 per MT, out of which,
1,67,774 MT was exported to Bangladesh at an average
Domestic Price Outlook
FoB of US$ 190.82 per MT and around 51,112 MT was
exported to Nepal at an average FoB of US$ 178.60 per
MT. Data for October is not yet available. Agriwatch expects that Maize would trade steady to
slightly firm during the month of November 2020 due to
increase in feed makers and stockists demand.
Maize Imports
Government procurement would also support to the
market. However, crop arrival pressure in coming weeks
India has authorized imports of upto 5 lakh Tonnes of
could limit the gain. Agriwatch expects that Maize in
Non-GM Maize (other than seed quality) at a
Nizamabad would trade in a range of Rs.1,350-1,550
concessional custom duty of 15% under TRQ Scheme
per quintal during the month of November 2020.

International Market Scenario

U.S. Maize exports have reached 6.13 MMT in the 2020-21 marketing year. At 0.73 MMT (for the period October 16-22,
2020) U.S. Maize exports were down 18% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average; mainly for
the destinations like Mexico (253,200 MT), China (134,100 MT), Colombia (80,000 MT), Japan (71,400 MT), and
Guatemala (62,300 MT). Agriwatch expects that increase in export demand for U.S. Maize in near term would support
to CBOT Maize. However, new crop arrivals could limit the gain.

Indian C&F Rate to Thailand vs. other Countries

As on Oct 30, 2020 Argentina Brazil US India

FOB 224.00 237.00 225.00 227.88
C&F 274.00 292.00 285.00 262.88

(US$ 1= Rs.74.60)

In U.S., 82% crop of Maize has been harvested as of November 01, 2020, up 33 percentage points from corresponding
period last year.

In its October 2020 report, USDA decreased its world Maize ending stock estimates by 6.34 MMT to 300.45 MMT for
2020-21 along with a decrease in production estimates which would support to global Maize market.

USDA also revised the ending stock estimates for U.S. and Ukraine, down by 8.53 MMT and 0.40 MMT respectively for
2020-21 compared to last month estimates due to decrease in production estimates while for Argentina and Brazil, it
kept unchanged at 2.88 MMT and 7.99 MMT, respectively compared to previous month estimates.

NCDFIeMarket.com 6
CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) Maize Future Prices

Maize CBOT Monthly Futures Price Listing

Contract Month Oct 30, 2020 Sep 30, 2020 Change

Dec-20 156.88 149.21 7.67

Mar-21 158.75 152.85 5.90
Maize CBOT Prices May-21 159.84 154.91 4.93
July-21 160.33 156.39 3.94
Sep-21 152.45 152.85 -0.40

(Price in US$/MT)

International Maize Outlook

Maize on CBOT rose by 7.67 US$ per MT to 156.88 US$ per MT for December 2020 contract compared to previous
month. Agriwatch expects that increase in export demand for U.S. Maize in near term would support to CBOT
Maize. However, new crop arrivals could limit the gain.

Spot Price Comparison

Market Oct'20 Oct'19 Oct'18 Oct'17
Gulabbagh 1,419 NA 1,327 1,225
Nizamabad 1,359 2,253 1,464 1,404
Davangere 1,340 2,314 1,504 1,350
Sangli 1,429 2,308 1,536 NA

Price: Monthly averages of Bilty Prices (Price in Rs./Quintal)

Market Arrival Comparison

Market Oct'20 Oct'19 Oct'18 Oct'17
Gulabbagh 3,90,000 NA 24,000 NA
Nizamabad 50,300 97,400 11,400 28,000
Davangere 64,500 1,300 61,500 9,600
Sangli 57,500 47,500 68,600 NA

·Arrival: Total Monthly Arrivals (Quantity in Quintal)

NCDFIeMarket.com 7
 Rice Bran

AgriWatch.com 8
 Paddy Sowing Updates
Domestic Market Summary

Price: All India wholesale price of Rice Bran was slightly Area Sown Reported in Million Hectares
firm in the month of October 2020 with gradually
increasing demand from domestic markets. All India State Normal This Year Last Year
Area
monthly wholesale average prices were Rs.1,643 per
quintal in October 2020 against the price of Rs.1,636 Andhra Pradesh 15.19 14.02 13.23
per quintal in September 2020.
Arunachal Pradesh 01.30 01.17 01.31
Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state procurement
Assam 20.55 21.22 19.67
agencies have bought 26% more paddy so far in this
year's Kharif marketing season at 179.82 lakh MT. Bihar 31.85 33.07 27.72
Paddy procurement for Kharif 2020-21 is continuing at a
good pace in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Chhattisgarh 37.64 37.84 38.14
Nadu, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Jammu & Kashmir,
Gujarat 07.78 08.39 08.47
Kerala and Gujarat with purchase of over 179 lakh MT of
paddy against 134.85 lakh MT in the same period last Haryana 13.79 13.28 13.57
year. Out of the total purchase, Punjab alone has
contributed 122.22 lakh MT, which is around 66.80% of Himachal Pradesh 00.73 00.74 00.73
the total procurement.
Jharkhand 16.12 17.38 13.57

Paddy procurement at government procurement Karnataka 09.28 09.98 07.33

centers in states like Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and
Uttarakhand has been steadily increasing. In some Madhya Pradesh 21.67 28.71 24.60
other states including Andhra Pradesh, Telangana,
Maharashtra 14.57 14.98 14.780
Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh
and Jharkhand, paddy harvesting preparations and Odisha 36.67 37.02 37.42
arrivals in mandis are likely to start in Mid-November
and procurement of paddy should start there. The Punjab 29.87 27.36 29.20
central government has set a target of purchasing
Rajasthan 01.87 01.97 01.82
paddy equivalent to about 497 lakh MT of rice, and
government agencies have completed necessary Tamil Nadu 16.06 04.96 03.85
preparations for it in various states.
Telangana 09.59 20.74 12.29
West Bengal first advance estimate has been released
Uttar Pradesh 58.30 60.14 60.05
and it states that rice production is expected to touch
133.25 lakh MT this year against the production of Uttarakhand 02.44 02.49 02.49
127.96 lakh MT in Marketing Year-2019-20.
West Bengal 41.20 43.34 40.31
As per trade sources based in Chhattisgarh, Rice Bran
Others 00.28 00.35 00.35
market is in flux at this time due to increase in COVID-
19 cases; if once again lockdown happens then market All India 397.29 406.97 378.71
will go down drastically, otherwise prices would likely
show a steady tone in the near term owing to increasing As on Sep 18, 2020, Source: Agricoop
poultry demand in winter and hence the demand for
bran from feed industries as well.

Fundamental Summary of Rice Bran

Market outlook Factors Impact

Higher Production of Paddy Bearish

Arrival of Fresh Crop in Market Bearish

Market driving factors
Overseas Demand of Rice Bran Bullish

Winter Demand of Eggs & Chicken Bearish

(November 2020)

NCDFIeMarket.com 9
India's Production of Paddy & De-Oiled Rice Bran

Paddy & Rice Bran Production (in MMT)

Year Paddy Rice Bran

2015-16 156.00 14.31
2016-17 164.50 14.76
2017-18 169.00 15.20
2018-19 174.00 15.66
2019-20 176.90 15.84
2020-21* 177.00 15.93

(Quantity in MMT) Source: Ministry of Agriculture. * AW Preliminary Estimates

Paddy production in the country is likely to hit a new high at 177 MMT and thus Bran production will also reach
15.90-16.00 MMT.

Rice Bran Exports

Rice Bran Extraction

Month Average FOB in US$/MT
(Quantity in MT)

April 39,181 156

May 30,714 155
June 28,892 150
July 29,172 148
August 29,375 177

Source: Solvent's Extractors Association of India (SEA) (^April-August 2020)

Monthly Export trend

Monthly Export Trend of Rice Bran Extraction Meal & FOB

50,000 200

40,000 150
Quantity in MT

FOB in US$/MT

30,000
100
20,000
50
10,000

0 0
April May June July Aug

Rice Bran Ext Average FOB

AgriWatch.com 10
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India has better while exports of other meals are suffering.
compiled the export data for export of Oil-Meals for the During April-August 2020, Vietnam imported 1,62,993
month of August 2020 and provisionally reported at tonnes of Oil-Meals (compared to 1,58,490 tonnes);
1,71,515 MT compared to 2,28,484 MT in August, 2019 consisting of 86,006 MT of De-oiled Rice Bran
i.e. down by 25%. The overall export of Oil-Meals Extraction, 73,375 tons of rapeseed meal and 3,387
during April to August 2020 is provisionally reported at tons of soybean meal. Thailand imported 80,622 MT of
1,013,177 MT compared to 1,146,295 MT during the Oil-Meals (compared to 1,22,462 MT); consisting of
same period of previous year i.e. down by 12%. In-spite 78,446 MT of rapeseed meal, 1,656 MT of Soybean Meal
of tough competition, Rice Bran Extraction has done and 484 MT of Rice Bran extraction.

Monthly Average Spot Prices Comparison

Rice Bran Meal

% Change % Change
Market Oct'20 Sept'20 Oct'19
over a month over a year

Bhatinda (Punjab) 864.03 1,193.65 1,580.02 -27.61 -45.32

Raipur (Chhattisgarh) 1,037.33 1,354.61 1,708.33 -23.42 -39.28

(Quantity in Rs/Quintal) Source: Agriwatch

Average prices of Rice Bran decreased with onset of year, in both Raipur and Bhatinda markets as bumper
fresh paddy arrival in the month of October 2020 in production prospects this year.
comparison to last month; also prices were much
lower compared to the corresponding period last

Price Trend

Rice Bran Price Trend

21,000
19,000
Figure in ₹ /MT

17,000
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
02 May 19

02 Aug 19

02 Nov 19

02 May 20

02 Aug 20

02 Nov 20
02 Mar 19

02 Apr 19

02 Jun 19

02 Jul 19

02 Oct 19

02 Dec 19

02 Jan 20
02 Sep 19

02 Feb 20

02 Mar 20

02 Apr 20

02 Jun 20

02 Jul 20

02 Oct 20
02 Sep 20

Kolkata Odisha Raipur Vijaywada

Source: Agriwatch

It can be seen in the chart above that the Rice Bran and fresh arrival were the major reasons for
traded bearish in the month of October 2020 in all weakening in price.
major markets. Dull demand from feed industries

NCDFIeMarket.com 11
Rice & Bran Balance sheet

Figure in MMT 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21*

Carry in 25.44 23.65 19.08 15.57 16.00 17.35 22.90 26.01

Rough Paddy Production 159.98 157.78 159.00 164.00 169.00 174.00 176.00 177.00

Milled Rice production 106.60 105.40 104.00 109.00 112.65 116.40 116.61 118.00

De -oiled Rice Bran Production 14.40 14.20 14.31 14.76 15.21 15.66 15.84 15.93

Total Availability 132.04 129.05 123.08 124.57 128.65 133.75 139.51 144.01

Domestic Rice Consumption 97.50 98.00 97.00 97.83 98.60 99.50 102.50 104.00

Feed Consumption (Bran) 1.44 1.42 1.57 1.77 1.83 1.88 1.74 1.91

Rice Exports 10.89 11.97 10.51 10.74 12.70 11.35 11.00 11.50

Total Rice Usage 108.39 109.97 107.51 108.57 111.30 110.85 113.50 115.50

Carry out of Rice 23.65 19.08 15.57 16.00 17.35 22.90 26.01 28.51

(Quantity in MMT) *Forecast for 2020-21 by Agriwatch, Trade Source & Ministry of Agriculture

Demand from Feed Industry

The Rice Bran production in India has hovered between 14 to 15 MMT in the last decade, out of which around
1.45-1.85 MMT goes to the feed sector. It is estimated that approximately 10-15% is used in Aqua feed, 30-35%
in poultry and the rest in Cattle feed industries.

Country wise Rice Bran Import Data

Aug' 19 Aug' 20 % Apr-Aug '19 Apr-Aug '20 %

Import From Commodity
(R) (P) Growth (R) (P) Growth

Bran Sharps And

Bangladesh Other Residues Without/Not 2,091.50 94.10 -95.50 31,122.24 94.10 -99.70
in the form of Pellets Derived

R= Revised, P= Projected

AgriWatch.com 12
Country wise Rice Bran Export Data

Country Aug'19 (R) Aug'20 (P) % Growth Apr-Aug'19 (R) Apr-Aug'20 (P) % Growth

Australia - 07.95 - - 08.07 -

Bangladesh 20.00 76.00 - 99.00 76.00 -23.23

Bhutan - - - 12.00 0.60 -95.00

Canada - - - - 17.00 -

Guinea - - - - 0.02 -

Ghana - - - 2.80 - -

Hong Kong - - - - 0.02 -

Japan 123.00 - - 270.00 282.00 04.44

Kuwait - - - - 05.00 -

Malaysia - - - - - -

Nepal 372.18 113.06 -69.62 759.08 1,391.74 83.35

Netherland - 1,542.00 - - 7,300.00 -

New Zealand - - - - 00.40 -

Norway - - - - 00.20 -

Oman - 00.02 - - 00.02 -

Philippines - 104.00 - - 104.00 -

Qatar - - - 105.00 27.00 -74.29

Russia - - - - - -

Saudi Arab - - - - 15.13 -20.28

Singapore - 01.00 - - 01.43 -

Switzerland - - - 00.03 - -

United Arab 28.35 22.00 -22.40 338.36 269.15 -20.45

Emirates - - - - - -

United Kingdom - 360.00 - - 1,680.00 -

United States of America - 01.20 - - 01.02 -

Vietnam - - - - 817.00 -

Total 543.53 2,151.22 295.79 1,586.26 11,995.96 656.24

(Quantity in 000' MT) R= Revised, P= Projected, Source-Department of Commerce (DGCIS)

NCDFIeMarket.com 13
 Cottonseed Oil Cake

AgriWatch.com 14
Recent Domestic Market Summary State-wise Cotton Sowing Coverage for Kharif
2020-21
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) reduced
Cottonseed prices during the last week of October According the Agriwatch estimates, Cotton was sown
2020 which has pressurized the Cottonseed Oil Cake across India in around 130.92 lakh hectare in 2020-
prices also. The Cottonseed Oil Cake prices in 21 Kharif season, around 1.37% increase. Higher
Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan declined steeply by area was reported in Punjab (5.01 lakh hectare),
around Rs.200 per quintal and stood between Haryana (7.37 lakh hectare), Rajasthan (6.68 lakh
Rs.2,550 and Rs.2,650 per quintal. The CCI's hectare), Madhya Pradesh (6.44 lakh hectare),
decision to cut the prices did not increase the Telangana (24.38 lakh hectare), Karnataka (6.88
demand given the higher moisture content in the lakh hectare) and Orissa (1.71 lakh hectare).
Kapas (raw Cotton) arrivals. Also, the prices are
under pressure because of increased arrivals. Farmers have reduced area under Cotton in Gujarat
(22.79 lakh hectare), Maharashtra (42.25 lakh
Cotton prices had gained momentum in the first two hectare), Andhra Pradesh (6.01 lakh hectare) and
weeks of October 2020 but the rains hampered the Tamil Nadu (1.17 lakh hectare). The Cotton crop in
quality of Cotton, leading to poor Cottonseed Oil Gujarat had been displaced by Groundnut. The
Cake quality. Also, the demand has weakened last farmers across India were expecting higher yield this
month. But the supply shortage and the CCI year amid favorable weather conditions earlier
purchases in the coming week could support the during the sowing season. But, the incessant rainfall
Cottonseed Oil Cake prices, for a while. with the withdrawal of monsoon across Maharashtra,
Telangana and Andhra Pradeshhas led to the decline
The huge carry-over of 2019-20 could pressurize the in the yield in the first picking to around 4-6 quintals
raw Cotton prices in 2020-21 marketing year. per acre against the previous estimates of around 10
However, the Cotton crop production estimates may quintal per acre.
decline below 376 lakh bales after the damage
caused due to the heavy rains and followed by the
pest infestation in Maharashtra, Telangana and
Andhra Pradesh.

CCI procurement operations of raw Cotton under

MSP in the States of Punjab Haryana, Rajasthan and
Madhya Pradesh have been progressing. By the end
of October 2020, around 6 lakh bales of Cotton bales
had been procured. A total of 20 lakh bales Cotton
had arrived across India till October 30, 2020. All
India arrivals have reached around 1.5 lakh bales
across India per day.

The farmers in Telangana have been advised to bring

the Cotton after drying to get the fair price by CCI.
But the farmers are in distress as heavy rains have
caused to increased moisture content in the produce.
The productivity from the first picking in Telangana
and Andhra Pradesh is expected to have declined to
4-6 quintals per acre and in Maharashtra the yield
has declined to 5-5.5 quintals per acre.

NCDFIeMarket.com 15
 Area

State 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21* % Change of 2019-20

Punjab 02.84 04.02 05.01 24.63%

Haryana 06.65 07.01 07.37 05.14%

Rajasthan 04.96 06.45 06.68 03.63%

Gujarat 27.12 26.68 22.79 14.57%

Maharashtra 42.54 44.30 42.25 -04.63%

Madhya Pradesh 06.97 06.09 06.44 05.75%

Telangana 17.96 18.60 24.38 31.08%

Andhra Pradesh 06.20 06.40 06.01 -06.09%

Karnataka 04.35 05.93 06.88 16.05%

Tamil Nadu 01.33 01.70 01.17 -31.18%

Orissa 01.58 01.70 01.71 00.71%

Others 00.17 00.27 00.22 -18.08%

Total 122.67 129.15 130.92 01.37%

(Area in Lakh hectare) Source: Agricoop and Agriwatch; *Projected

India Cottonseed & Cottonseed Oil Cake Production

Production
Year Cotton Seed Cottonseed Oil Cake
2015-16 102.92 82.81
2016-17 106.95 85.98
2017-18 113.15 91.08
2018-19 096.72 77.11
2019-20 111.60 89.76
2020-21* 115.42 93.00

(Quantity in Lakh MT) Source: CAI derived figures(October-September); *: Projected

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has increased its According to the latest USDA estimates, 2020-2021
Cotton crop final estimate for 2019-20 to 360 lakh bales global Cottonseed production estimates had declined to
compared to its previous estimate of 354 lakh bales. 4 2 6 . 4 3 l a k h M T, d o w n 4 % f r o m 2 0 1 9 - 2 0
However, Agriwatch estimates the 2019-20 production (443.17lakhMT). While the global Cottonseed Oil Cake
at 362 lakh balesand about 376 lakh bales Cotton production is also expected to decline to 151.70 lakh MT
production is projected for the 2020-21 season. The in 2020-21 from 155.03 lakh MT produced in 2019-20.
actual Cotton output could be lower than expected to Lower forecasts for U.S., Brazil, and Uzbekistan have
the expectation of poor yield in the major Cotton been made but are expected to be offset by gains in
producing states in India. India.

Cottonseed Oil Cake Exports & Imports

Cottonseed Oil Cake
Year Export Import
2016-17 0.64 0.02
2017-18 0.39 0.15
2018-19 0.32 0.30
2019-20^ 0.35 0.37

(Quantity in Lakh MT) Source: Department of Commerce (HS Code-230610); ^: October-August

AgriWatch.com 16
 Countrywise Cottonseed Oil Cake Exports

Country 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20*

Bangladesh 05.19 16.06 04.79 00.61 03.08

China 02.91 02.16 02.16 03.05 02.54

Japan 01.92 01.35 01.36 00.55 00.04

Korea RP 21.28 28.43 18.55 15.50 15.54

Kuwait 00.06 00.18 00.15 00.12 00.37

Nepal 01.99 05.99 04.76 10.54 07.91

Oman 04.32 00.49 02.67 - -

Saudi Arab 00.30 00.36 - - 00.08

Taiwan 00.38 00.43 00.62 00.31 00.59

Thailand 00.84 01.12 00.85 00.52 00.69

UAE 00.02 00.06 00.04 00.02 00.04

Others 01.13 06.74 03.16 00.92 03.78

Total 40.35 63.81 39.11 32.13 34.64

Source: Department of Commerce (HS Code-230610); *: October-August

In 2019-20 (October-September), the major export destinations for India were Korea, Nepal, Bangladesh and China.

From October 2019 until August 2020, India had exported around 15.54 thousand MT to Korea followed by Nepal (7.91
thousand MT), Bangladesh (3.08 thousand MT) and to China exporting 2.54 thousand MT.

Most of the produced Cottonseed meal is consumed in India itself, limiting the global trade to just 0.30-0.60 lakh MT a
year.

Cottonseed Oil Cake Spot Prices Comparison

Spot Price Comparison

Market Oct'20 Sep'20 Oct'19 % Change over a month % Change over a year

Kadi 1841 1954 3279 -6% -44%

Akola 1924 1947 3345 -1% -42%

(Price in Rs/Quintal) Source: NCDEX; Quality specifications: Moisture content: 9%, Oil Content: 6%,
Color: Greenish Yellow; Tax: 0% tax on Cottonseed Oil Cake

The spot market traded weak during October month, with Price Outlook
the average price in Kadi down by 6% at Rs.1,841 per
quintal and 1% down around Rs.1,924 per quintal in Akola. According to the seasonality, the prices tend to remain
The prices dropped soon after the Cottonseed prices range- bound from November to February amidst
dropped. The present Cotton arrivals have around 30-35% increased Cotton arrivals. A positive momentum could be
moisture declining the quality of Cottonseed and seen from March amid strong crush demand and
Cottonseed Oil Cake. narrowing Cotton arrivals. However, the huge carryover
stock of the previous year and expectation of higher crop
could keep the market range bound in 2020-21.

NCDFIeMarket.com 17
Price Trend Analysis of Cottonseed Oil Cake (Kadi) Source: NCDEX

Cottonseed Oil Cake Price Trend (Kadi & Akola)

NCDEX Cottonseed Oil Cake Futures

NCDEX Cottonseed Oil Cake Futures

% Change Change over

over previous Open High Open
Contract Low Close previous month Volume Interest
month

Dec'20 -1.70% 1800 1813 1796 1796 -31 7630 28120

Jan'21 -1.10% 1811 1825 1810 1806 -20 1640 7980

Feb'21 - NA NA NA NA - NA NA

NCDEX: As updated on November 03, 2020

AgriWatch.com 18
NCDEX Cottonseed Oil Cake prices were range- In November 2020, prices are likely to be range-
bound showed consolidation in the weekly chart. The bound until a break out of a rectangle pattern takes
December 2020 contract ended on a weaker note at place. The first resistance Rs.1,918 per quintal and
Rs.1,796 per quintal against Rs.1,827 per quintal in the second resistance at Rs.2,050 per quintal. The
the prior month. Although the prices touched a high price could see a level to Rs.1,750 per quintal in the
of Rs.1,911 per quintal during the month, they coming month and a further fall could be near
dropped to Rs.1,775 per quintal during the month. Rs.1,700 per quintal.

Disclaimer

Agriwatch is providing this customized report for the NCDFI eMarket. The information and opinions contained in
the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its
accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk.
This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This
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and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment). Please see the detailed
disclaimer at http://www.agriwatch.com/Disclaimer.asp © 2020 Indian Agribusiness Systems Ltd.

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