Zcode Horse Racing Bible PDF

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Horse
Racing
Bible
by Tony Mochrie
Contents
Introduction 3
First, Some Last Words 5
Horse Selection Methods 12
Form Reading 12
Systems 48
Ten Year Trends 48
System Creation 76
Odds Profiling 95
To Trade Or Not To Trade? 108
Other Stuff 127
Value 127
Hedging 133
Finding Value Each Way Bets 146
How Good Is The Odds Forecast? 152
Confusing Stats 157
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics 167
Losing Runs And How To Cope With Them 183
Pace 185
Backing Beaten Favourites 193
Profit from Trainers Having One Runner on the Card 202
Glossary Of Racing Terms 209
Useful Tools 225
Epilogue 226
Horse Racing Bible
Introduction
Although this is probably entitled the Horse Racing Bible I
would like to add a Subtitle
The Handicapping Process: An Approach

The horse’s name, the colour of the jockey’s silks, a favourite
number. These are all legitimate ways to choose a horse to
bet. Sadly, they are all destined to be long-term losers for the
committed (i.e. should be committed) followers.
In this guide I offer a few thoughts on the handicapping process:

on how to find a horse to bet. The key word in the title is the
smallest word in it - “an” - for there is no right or wrong way to
handicap a horse race. There are better and worse ways, most
being better than names, colours and lucky numbers (or even
as in my other halfs’ case the colour of the horse, grey).
Whilst on the subject of definitions, let me touch on what I’m

trying to achieve with “the handicapping process”. I’m not
trying to find the most likely winner. I’ll write that again, to be
clear: I am NOT trying to find THE MOST LIKELY winner. Not
necessarily, at least.
Rather, I am trying to eke out a long-term profit from backing

horses whose chances are under-estimated by the market. In
other words, I’m looking for VALUE. There will be no lecture, or
even expansion, on the concept of value here, it is covered in a
chapter later on.
So, here follows an approach to the handicapping process. It is

not the only approach, nor will it be the best or even necessarily
an optimal one. But it has worked for me, and it may work for
you too.
Why we need a handicapping process

As soon as one engages with the handicapping process, it is
no longer enough to pick from the top two or three in the market
based on the string of numbers to the left of a horse’s name.
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Horse Racing Bible
A majority of horse racing punters have been conditioned into

that by the presentation style of race cards in newspapers and
on-course race day literature since forever.
It’s just not that simple. It can’t be, can it? Sure, if you don’t
keep score that will provide enough winners to convince the
self-delusional that they’re in front. But here is the cost of
following the head of the market, in cash terms, since the start
of 2015 in all UK and Irish races.
Market Runs Wins Win % SP ROI

Rank Loss
1 17526 5825 33% -1389.84 -7.93%
2 16669 3335 20% -1880.47 -11.28%
3 16476 2242 14% -2357.71 -14.31%
Backing the top favourite in all UK and Irish races since the
start of 2015 would have led to a winning bet bang on one
in three wagers. And a loss of 8% will give you plenty of fun
before you inevitably go skint.
As can be seen, the second and third market choices win

roughly the same amount of races combined as does the
favourite. But the financial cuts are deeper: self-mutilation
versus punting masochism
That is not to say that there is never value at the top of the
market. On the contrary, there may often be more value there
than anywhere else in the list of runners and prices. It is how
we sift that decides our degree of success.
For many, bizarrely, the need for winners is predominant. A

need for vindication, to be proven correct, to solve the puzzle,
trumps the quest for profit. There are thousands - probably
millions - of punters who are happy to “BOOM!!!!!!!” after
‘nailing’ a 4/6 winner (that should have been even money in any
case). If you need confirmation of that, just search ‘boom’ on
twitter any afternoon during racing.
The good news is that, for those of us who prefer to eat less
often, but gorge ourselves when we do, figuratively and
relatively at least, those bombastic boomers butter our bread.

Horse Racing Bible
First, Some Last Words

To win at betting on horses, or indeed anything, one needs
either to be lucky or to be smart. Ideally, one needs to be both.
The best tactic of all is to use smarts to make your own luck.
Horse races are loose forms of organised chaos. An average

of ten large animals, steered by small animals, with each other
and/or obstacles in their way: there is plenty of scope for things
to go wrong. Unsurprisingly, things frequently do go wrong.
Thus the best horse often does not win. Rather, the best suited
horse to conditions, or the best placed horse from the break, or
the horse that makes the fewest mistakes, usually wins.
These kinds of ‘chaos variables’ are generally not factored

into the price of horses at the top of the market, meaning
such horses can not normally be considered value bets. Their
chances are well advertised by the good judges in the racing
media and the weight of money from lazy punters ensures their
followers will eventually suffer death by a thousand poor value
betting slip paper cuts. Or something like that.
No system is perfect, no angle immune to the bettors’ scourge,

variance: again, as I like to say, “after a good run expect a bad
run; after a bad run expect a good run”. Such is the nature of
the beast.
For ultra-contrarians like myself, the best time to get involved

with a proven capper or a solid-looking betting system is in
the howling teeth of a downturn; after a bad run expect a good
run. But only if you firmly believe in the underlying merit of the
approach behind it.
We hanker after the golden goose, the method that gets all the
girls. But that’s not what we need. What we need is a steady
little portfolio of pointers that keep us honest, content and on the
right side of both the bottom line and sanity. That is achievable,
sustainable, and far more nourishing than a golden goose.
But a betting angle that works for you will not necessarily be
the same as one that works for me, or that works for the next
person.

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An example will help.
Betting Angle A has a 3% ROI on more than 10,000 selections.

That’s 300 points profit. Nice right? Well, maybe.
What if Angle A identifies 40 bets per day? What if the average

odds of winners are 25/1 (26.0 decimal)?
The downswings with an approach like that could run to many

hundreds of points. To operate it profitably would require a very
large bank, very small unit stakes (in percentage terms), and
titanium sphericals. The profit is attractive to all; the modus
operandi suitable for very few.
Whether you could or you couldn’t, the key here is that while we
may all be similar in terms of our general aspirations from the
game, we are all different in how we can scratch that itch.
We have different bankrolls, different appetites to risk, different

styles of betting, different amounts of time to invest in finding
our bets, and so on.
That diversity is to be celebrated: it ultimately means we’ll land

on different horses and back winners on different days. It won’t
stop any of us from being profitable or from enjoying our betting
as long as we recognise our own terms of reference before
getting stuck in.
It is very well worth taking a few minutes to think about your

approach, and how optimal that approach is for you.
What to look for in a good system/angle

The first thing to say here is to refer back to the previous
section: make sure any angle you identify looks sustainable
in terms of the way you play. If you need a winner every third
qualifier there is little point in deploying an angle with a 10%
strike rate; you’ll give up on it after a few losers which, almost
inevitably, means before you’ve made any profit.
If you only want to place one of two bets a day, there is little
point in identifying a great angle with an average of six bets a

Horse Racing Bible
day. You’ll immediately feel uncomfortable with the different

staking and wagering regimen, and that is not a position of
strength from which to enjoy the sport.
Any research you undertake needs to be mindful of how you

bet: how often, how risky, and so on.
A good system, then, will speak to you personally in terms of its

numbers. It will fit your appetite for risk, volume and available
time. If it doesn’t, it’s only a matter of time before you pull the
plug, profitable edge or not.
Aside from the personal elements, there are generic precursors

to good angles, too.
LOGIC LOGIC LOGIC

The first, and most crucial, component of angle research is
logic. An angle should be explainable in a shortish sentence
and, if you were explaining it to a fellow punter, she should not
spit out her beer in disgust at the case you make.
It is never enough to reason, “well it’s profitable”. If you can’t

explain why it is profitable the approach is very likely built on
foundations of sand.
It might be fine to have an angle based around big trainers’

performance in Saturday handicaps. But it would never make
sense to create an angle around performance on Mondays,
Tuesdays and Thursdays, for instance. There’s simply no
underlying logic.
Likewise, trainer angles where there are gaps in the months

which qualify make no sense; conversely, however, plenty of
trainers have certain parts of the year/season when they’re in
bloom. As long as there is a consecutive nature to the period,
that may well be predicated on the schedule of the yard’s year.
Just think ‘why’ for every variable within your angles. If you
can’t explain it, you should probably bin it.

Horse Racing Bible
Less is (usually) more

I read a book called ‘The Organized Mind’ by Daniel Levitin,
Levitin’s central idea is that we should offload information from
the brain onto the physical world, be it in the form of compiling a
to-do list if we struggle to recall all that has to be done or simply
buying a key hook if you constantly lose your car keys.
One thing that strikes a chord is..
“...the idea that too little information is no good but so is too

much. This applies with any decision we make, like buying a
house or car say. Having too many parameters to consider
leads to confusion in decision-making, with humans apparently
unable to process more than ten variables for any choice, the
optimal number being closer to five.”
Betting angles should be simple in the main, predicated

on sound logic, and often ‘hiding in plain sight’. The more
convoluted they are, the more likely the creator has added an
extra variable or two to filter out some inconvenient truth. This is
a subjective area and one where common sense is our greatest
ally. Less is usually more.
Be wary of small sample sizes

The nature of looking at horse racing statistically, which is
essentially what angle research boils down to, is that we are
invited to make inferences on insignificant sample sizes. The
conundrum is thus: too large a sample and the angle is well
known and profit gone, too small a sample and the angle is
unreliable and may be a fluke.
So what to do? Two things...
1 Seek a happy medium
Somewhere in between those two unsatisfactory sample size

groups is a reasonable amount of data and the chance of profit
continuing in the short- to medium-term. Where possible, look
for as big a sample as you can. An angle with eight winners

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from ten runners looks fantastic, but how sustainable is that?

It’s impossible to know on such limited evidence.
One thing we can do in such situations is to widen out the

search. For example, if Sire Z’s progeny have had eight
all-weather sprint winners from ten runners, how does that
compare with his turf sprint winners? Or with his all-weather
runners overall? We’re looking for greater assurance in larger
numbers. Chances are we’ll still be dealing with relatively small
samples, but we’ll have a better feel for the sustainability of the
micro-micro-sample of ten runs.
2 Proceed with caution
“Wise men say only fools rush in.
But I can’t help falling in love with you”
So sung the immortal Elvis Presley, and he wasn’t wrong. Once

you’ve satisfied yourself that there at least might be merit in an
angle, go forward carefully. Do not rush in. Only fools rush in.
Such angles are prime contenders to be considered in the

context of the race overall rather than bet blind. For instance,
a trainer with an excellent record with handicap debutants
from a tiny sample: is there anything else about this runner to
corroborate its chance? Has it been off for more than a month?
Is it stepping up in trip, or down in class? Is there a notable
jockey change? Has there been money for the horse?
It doesn’t take long in most cases to see whether the qualifier

should be a ‘proper’ bet, an ‘action’ bet, or a watch and squirm
job. (For me, there is no such thing as the last named. I’m either
betting to win or I’m not betting and I won’t cry if the horse
wins).
Profit is not the best measure

Most angle researchers have an unhealthy obsession with the
Profit/Loss column. Of course we are trying to secure a positive
return, but there are any number of traps for the greedy punter
whose alpha and omega is pee and ‘ell.

Horse Racing Bible
Harking back to what suits a particular bettor, and mindful of

the small sample sizes that often manifest, it may be prudent
to focus on each way percentage, percentage of rivals beaten
(PRB) or percentage of rivals beaten squared (PRB^2). The last
named pair, especially PRB^2, are very interesting metrics that
I haven’t found an easy way to explain yet so for now ignore
them and look to each way percentage as a way of - somewhat
artificially but perfectly legitimately - extending the sample size
in question.
In terms of profitability, A/E (Actual vs Expected, read

the section on Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics for more
information) is a solid barometer of ongoing value. It’s a
simple enough concept, where an A/E of greater than 1.00 is
considered a positive, an A/E of less than 1.00 is considered a
negative, and the further away from 1.00 the number, the better
or worse is the expected merit. The A/E column can be found
within Horseracebase database
Review, and Realise

Once you’ve found your angle(s), stored them, and started to
bet them, there are two important ‘maintenance’ jobs to take
on. The first is one of review. No matter how large or small
the research sample was, every qualifier thereafter swells the
knowledge base. Returning to your set of angles on a regular -
maybe quarterly, but it depends how much action an angle
throws up - basis is excellent discipline. Don’t get too hung up
on profit and loss from quarter to quarter, but rather focus on
whether the horses looked likely beforehand, took a degree of
support, and ran well even if in defeat.
Through this review process we start to realise - make real - the

angle. A trainer becomes someone whose methods we get to
know; likewise a sire, or a course profile, or whatever. We must
make friends with these entities, ask questions of them, and
become more familiar than the market. This is a lot easier than
it might sound, particularly in terms of the early markets, which
are heavily focused on ‘top down’ information such as basic

Horse Racing Bible
recent form, newspaper tipsters and fashionable trainers and

jockeys.
‘Bottom up’ intel - first start in a handicap, favourable draw/

pace, no name trainer with his job jockey, and the like - is
factored into the market later. This late intelligence is generally
underpinned by people close to yards who want to bet, and they
can’t get a meaningful bet on until nearer the off time. As angle
punters we have to second guess them: we’ll generally not nick
their price, but can nab a few quid at ‘ignorant odds’ before the
smart money arrives.
More often than this, though, are the occasions when we realise
that the first flush of love was misguided; that we rushed in as
fools, or maybe merely flirted dangerously with a dataset which
failed to substantiate itself for the application of further evidence.
Reviewing and rejecting these false dawns (no offence, Dawn,
if you’re reading!) is as valuable - arguably more valuable - than
finding a great angle: the first job is to try not to lose money and
protect the bank, the second job is to try to win money.
Nothing Lasts Forever

The final point to make in this overture to Angle Research is
that nothing lasts forever. You will know you have found a
great angle if the strike rate remains largely the same over time
while the profit diminishes to a loss. That is simply a function of
market awareness and is the lot of any and all statistical edges.
The game, of course, is to continually reinvent our portfolio.
Every week, month or year, there are new trainers waxing

and old trainers waning. Likewise sires and, to a lesser extent,
jockeys. Tracks change their drainage and, in so doing, reverse
their draw biases. Surfaces get relaid and the front-running
bias is mitigated as the kickback to later runners becomes less
severe.
It’s the circle of life, and all the joy within: there is always
something else to learn, to discover, to deploy.
Evolve or die: this is the angle punter’s mantra.

Horse Racing Bible
Horse Selection Methods

Form Reading
Reading The Form

Handicapping
Handicapping has come to have two meanings in modern

racing. First is, when the British Horse Racing Board (BHRB)
allocates weight to a horse in a handicap race, to equalise
the horse’s chance of winning. The second meaning is when
punters handicap races in an attempt to evaluate which horse
has the best chance of winning.
The practice of picking a horse to win a race based on its form

is as old as the sport itself. Horse racing and betting have
existed side-by-side from virtually the very beginning. Punters
have always relied heavily on reading and understanding how a
horse has performed in recent races.

Horse Racing Bible
Read any race card, and you’ll doubtless see a horse’s last
six results (if applicable) reading from left to right, with the
right-hand side outlining the most recent. One thing that savvy
punters have learned is that the bare figures don’t come close
to revealing the full story.
A horse with several consecutive wins could be stepping up

in class, carry too much weight today, or have no experience
running in the race’s conditions. A horse that performs well
on Soft turf could find a Firm track far too hard for its liking.
Likewise, a horse with no good recent form might be returning
to a course it enjoys.
The problem with ‘Form’ is that it covers an incredible number

of angles. How often have you seen a horse romp home at
decent odds despite its bare form suggesting such a run was
unlikely? There are so many ways to read form that even the
bookmakers make a mess of it sometimes.
Understanding The Racing Post

The Racing Post is the UK’s leading racing paper. It is very
important that you understand all aspects of both the printed,
and the online versions, so that you can make the best use of it
to assist you with your betting. Here, I am going to concentrate
on the Racing Post Online, which you can get at:
www.racingpost.com. These days, the daily race cards are
available to all visitors.
You will initially be presented with this screen:

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All of the major racing headlines are on the home page. On

the top of the screen you have access to the cards, results and
tipsters. Choosing the Cards option will give you a choice of
races for the day. You can select a different date at the top if
you want to.

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Once you click on the track of your choosing, you will get
information on the Going and the list of races happening on the
day.
As you can see at Musselburgh, there are 8 races taking place

today. The Going is Good (In Places), the first race is on at
2:00 and the final race of the day is at 5:45. You also get to see
the type of race, the Class, the distance, and the number of
runners.
Next to the Going in brackets is the GoingStick rating. This is

seldom referred to, but is actually what it says – a measurement
taken by a stick that is pushed into the ground and then pulled
backwards at an angle. This replicates a horse’s hoof going into
the ground, and, together with observation, should be a much
more accurate measure of the going.
The next piece of information is the day’s weather report (partly

cloudy at Musselburgh on this day). This is critical to read, as
it is going to tell you how much the going could change. In this

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instance, I am focusing on a Class 6 Handicap race at 4:10. It

is for 4yo+ horses with an OR of between 0 and 60, and takes
place over a distance of 7 furlongs. We also know the race has
a total of 12 runners.
Once you click on the link to the race, you will see that there is
a LOT going on. Here is what you will see on the page:
• Horse Name: The name of the horse is clearly shown on the

left of the screen.
• Number: The cloth number of the horse. In handicap races,

this is determined by weight. The horse carrying the most
weight (top weight) wears the #1 cloth. We can see that
Christmas Knight is the top weighted horse.

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• Draw: The number stall the horse has been drawn in.
Christmas Knight is drawn in stall #4, the number is in
brackets beside the cloth number.
• Form: The last six performances are shown with the most
recent result on the right. Christmas Knight finished third
in its last race, and sixth in the race before that. If a horse
finishes outside the top 10, that performance is denoted by a
0. A horse that is pulled up gets a PU, a horse that unseats
the rider gets a UR, while a horse that falls gets an F. If you
see a ‘-‘, that usually means a break between this season
and last.
• Age: The age of the horse.
• Weight: How much weight a horse is carrying. Christmas

Knight is carrying 9-7 for example.
• OR: The horse’s official rating as determined by the British

Horseracing Authority’s team of handicappers. Christmas
Knight has the highest in the race at 60 which is why it
carries top weight. In contrast to RPR, the BHA rating found
for horses in the results reflect the horses’ ratings going into
the race, and not what they achieved in the race.
• Jockey Allowance: If a jockey is allowed an ‘allowance’,

it means the horse carries less weight. Here we see that
Christmas Knight benefits from a 3-pound allowance
because the jockey Ben Robinson is entitled to this claim.
• Trainer RTF%: This is a trainer’s Run To Form percentage.

This figure shows you the percentage of a trainer’s
runners that have run to form, based on the actual, and the
expected, ratings in each race. It is the best guideline we
have as to how well a trainer is performing, and is based
on the last 16 days. We see that Christmas Knight’s trainer,
Ollie Pears, has an RTF of 40%. As a rule of thumb, trainers
with an RTF of 70% or more are worth a second look.
• Top Speed (TS): These ratings are based on race times,

so horses recording faster times will achieve higher ratings.

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The ratings are measured in pounds like RPR, and aim to

remove the effect of different going and weather conditions
on the race times.
• RPR: The Racing Post Ratings are merit ratings produced

by a team at the Racing Post. They are based on collateral
form i.e. if horse A beats horse B carrying the same weight,
then it will be awarded a higher rating. The ratings are
expressed in pounds (lb) so a horse rated 140 is regarded
as 10lb better than one rated 130. There is a more or less
accepted sliding scale for converting lb to distance where 3lb
= 1 length over 5f and 1lb = 1 length over 2m and upwards.
• Odds: You can check the odds at individual bookmakers

or find the best odds at a glance. We see that Christmas
Knight’s best odds are 7/2 at present. Jockey and Trainer:
The name of the jockey and the trainer for that particular
horse.
Beneath the name of the horse, you can see a lightbulb symbol.
Click on it to get the Racing Post’s comments on the horse.
Click on the notebook icon beside it to get further details about
its more recent runs. Click on the ‘X’ to get rid of the horse if
you are in the process of eliminating runners.

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Scroll down to the bottom of the screen and you get a full list
of Racing Post comments for each horse, including its tip. The
Betting Forecast section is the Racing Post’s prediction of what
the odds ‘might’ be. It can be used as a guide to how the betting
market will change. You can also click on the OR tab to see
the Official Rating of each horse in their last 6 races, as well as
their lifetime high and low OR.
The Stats tab is very interesting because it shows the Top

Trainers and Top Jockeys. This information is quite self-
explanatory.

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You can see a list of data for the trainer, jockey, and horse.
For instance, we know that Keith Dalgleish has a 9% win rate
in the last 14 days and a 12% win rate ‘Overall’. Please note,
the Overall stat only relates to the last 5 years on the track in
question. Under jockeys, Philip Prince is in good form but he
has very few rides at Musselburgh.
As for horses, we see that Tellovoi has two wins on the

going but a poor record over the distance. We can use this
information to select our contenders, and perhaps eliminate
horses that are unlikely to win.
If you think the racecard contains plenty of information, you

have seen nothing yet! Click on the horse’s name and you are
greeted with a very detailed page full of data about the horse.

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You can view the horse’s entire career to date. This page
contains the date of each run, the course, class, race type,
prize money, distance, Going, the weight carried in each race,
finishing position, jockey, OR at the time, TS, and RPR. You
can also see the horse’s record according to race type. In this
instance, we can see that Christmas Knight has 1 win from 14
on Flat turf and 1 win from 9 on All-Weather tracks. You also
see career prize money.
If you hover over the result, you get a quick overview of how
the horse ran. For example, in Christmas Knight’s last race at
Thirsk, he was prominent and led one furlong from home but
was overtaken in the last 125 yards to finish third.
There are a couple of more tidbits of information back on the

racecard. I have used a different race for the last screenshot.

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In some cases, you will see a letter beside the horse’s name.
Above, you can see the letter ‘D’ beside several horses
including Placebo Effect. This indicates that the horse has won
over the Distance in the past. Here is what the other letters you
might see mean:
C = Course Winner
CD = Course and Distance Winner
BF = Beaten Favourite (Last time the horse ran)
The number you see beside the letter is the number of days
since the horse last ran. For example, Kylie Rules last ran 19
days ago.
You can see there is a vast amount of information fitted into one
line, and it is important to take note and understand all of it. The
more you read the form, the quicker you will get, and the more
adept you will become at spotting things that do not seem quite
right.

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Overall, virtually all of the information on the trainer, owner,

breeder, age and history can be found on the Racing Post’s
website. By clicking the names of jockeys, trainers, courses
dates etc… you can access even more details with regard to
statistics, entries, wins, sales, charts, and relatives. Depending
on your subscription level, you can watch video replays of each
of the runs of the horse. You can see the results of each race
by clicking on the date.
There is a Notes tab on the far right of the screen when you
click on a horse’s information. It is also available for the trainer
and the jockey of each horse, by clicking on their names in the
race card. You can add your own notes for future reference but
this feature is only available to subscribers.
This is an explanation of how to access the most important

information that is shown on The Racing Post website race
cards. As you can plainly see, you get more than enough
information without having to subscribe to the website.
Understanding Form
Reading form and using the information effectively is a core skill.
It will take some practice for you to be comfortable that you

are assessing a horse’s ability correctly, and this can be done
by either assessing future races, or by going through past
race cards, and doing your assessment before checking what
the results were. Of course, this mainly depends on the time
available to you, and there is no preference for either. Here I
will give an overview of the whole process before we focus on
the specifics.
There is one simple factor in form that nobody can argue.

When a horse wins a race it has run faster than all the other
horses in that race. Another important piece of information to
remember is that fast horses can run slower, but slower horses
are unlikely to be able to run faster. This is something that you
should always bear in mind when analysing form.

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Evaluating form is the interpretation of a horse’s past

results and data, and translating that interpretation into an
understanding of the quality of the horse. The more you do this
then the greater the knowledge you will have, and the better
your assessment will be. There is no shortcut and practice is
the only way. The strongest aspect of form is for a horse to
have beaten previous winners in its race. This is even better
if the horse beaten has beaten a lot of other horses. It proves
that the beaten horse is a good performer and, of course,
strengthens the belief in the abilities of the horse we are looking
at. So what happens if a horse has not won the race by a big
distance? Well, ideally you will have a couple of horses in the
race that ran closely, but beat the rest of the field by a wide
margin. This shows that both these horses had a much clearer
ability than the rest of the field. This occurs most often with
horses that have unexposed form, and previous winners are not
allowed to race.
If all the horses in a race finish close to each other, then either
the handicapper has done an excellent job, or it is an indication
that the form is of a low quality. I would always look on the
side of the form being of low quality, not that the handicappers
don’t do an excellent job, but this is my preference. The reason
for this is, not every horse in the race can be good; therefore,
if they all finish close together they are all likely to be poor. I
would always stay on the side of a horse having poor form,
unless it has proved otherwise. This will prevent you from
betting on chances. If the press are saying that a particular
horse will run an excellent race, but when you look through its
form, you find that it has not given any proof that it will, then
leave it alone. Hype can be produced for many reasons and
taking no notice of it is essential. When reading form, you must
trust your opinion and nobody else’s. Of course you will get it
wrong sometimes, and when you begin there will be a long way
to go, but right from the beginning you must trust yourself.
Once you have looked at the positive and negative features of

form for every horse in a race, then you must compare form.
Directly comparing the form of one horse with another horse

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that it has raced against is, of course, the easiest comparison

you can get. Let’s go back to what I mentioned at the beginning;
if a horse has beaten another horse then it has run faster. So,
if the race is being run under similar conditions, it is likely that
the same result will occur. Do not take this to mean that the
same result will always occur, but if the conditions are indeed
the same, then it is quite likely that the same result will occur.
Please always bear in mind that even the smallest change in
conditions can make a big difference.
Sadly, not every horse in a race will have raced against

every other horse in that race, and therefore our job is made
harder. So, after looking at all horses that have raced together
previously, we then look for horses that have raced a common
competitor. For example, horses A and B are racing today but
have never raced together. However, when we look at their
racing history, we notice that they have both raced against
horse C on different occasions. We can now compare these two
horses by looking at how successful they were when they raced
against horse C. We must of course also take into account
the conditions in which they raced horse C. If they both raced
horse C in similar conditions then this makes the comparison
much easier. However, if the conditions were different, then
we need to see what conditions they are racing in today, and
which horse is likely to have an extra edge because of this,
and add it into our consideration. This is often referred to as
collateral form, and can be found in the Racing Post, although
the assistance of software-based form books can significantly
speed up the process. Discovering these form links requires
you to be alert, and to be careful not to place too much weight
on things that may make no difference. When reading form it
is very easy to place a lot of emphasis on a particular factor
because you want the horse to be good or, after all your work,
you want to find a horse that has a much better ability. Sadly
this is not always, or even often, possible, and when the race is
very competitive you must leave it and move on. You will make
your profit by leaving a race, and only betting when there are
clear advantages.

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So the process of form reading is:
• Evaluate how successful a horse has been in its past races,

taking into account the race conditions, and keeping in mind
the preference for horses who have won by a clear margin.
• Do a direct comparison of form looking at horses that have

raced against other horses in this race, and see which horse
performed better.
• Look at the collateral form for horses that have not raced
against others in this race, and make an assessment of their
ability.
This does not sound like much, but when you begin this
process will take you anything from 15 to 45 minutes per race.
These are the main building blocks on which you will get your
selections. Later we will look at the four main elements of form.
Before then, we want to look in more detail at what is a good

sign in form reading and what is a bad sign.
We’ll start by looking at flat racing. You can make some initial
observations on a horse in flat racing by looking at the age.
2YO
These races are generally about speed. The distances are

short, and even later in the season when some longer distances
are raced, you are still looking at the horse’s ability to learn
quickly from the speed races it has had.
3YO
When looking at 3 year old racing, you are looking for the horse
to have improved. Some of the horses who may not have
performed that well as 2 year olds, may have been maturing
slower and are now making good improvements. Just because
a horse performed poorly as a 2 year old, do not write it off yet.
To demonstrate how important the improvement is in 3 year

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olds, all 3 year olds that have the form of 322 statistically win
around 36.8% of their races.
4 YO
At this age the horse should have matured, and be confirming

what we already know it can do. Horses at this age are unlikely
to change suddenly, in the way that they can when they are 2 or
3 years old. Very occasionally, you can find some horses who
do seem to suddenly be performing well at this age. However,
this can almost always be attributed to the trainer happening on
a specific improvement technique, which suits the horse better.
When a horse is older than 4, they are normally just continuing

to confirm what they have always done, and you should be
slightly wary of younger horses improving on them.
We will now have a more detailed look at certain types of races,

and what the form tells us in these races.
National Hunt
National Hunt racing provides greater margins between the
finishing positions of horses than flat racing, and this is because
of the obstacles. Do not look at National Hunt form horses
in age groups, as the horses are intended to have a longer
racing life than horses that race on the flat. Usually, a National
Hunt racehorse will start off as a hurdler, and then move on to
chases a few years later. Taking into account how a horse has
matured over its career is important in assessing this form. You
want to see what level it has performed at, and how successful
it is, being successful over obstacles is a necessity for this type
of racing.

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Hurdles
Like flat racing, hurdles are essentially about speed. Hurdles
are different from fences, and the horses can usually jump
lower and brush the hurdle, without hindering their race. Take
an extra note of the speed performance of the horse, and the
performance over the longer flat races.
Chase Form
Can the horse jump fences? If it can’t jump a fence well, then
the horse will not have any chance of winning in Chase Form.
The fences are higher than the hurdles, and if the horse can’t
jump over them cleanly, then it will either fall or have its race
badly hindered. Take extra notes on the jumping abilities of
these horses.
Handicap Hurdles
These can be very difficult races to predict as they are often
very competitive, and the horses racing are the best performers
from hurdle races. Generally speaking, the best horses in
distances of around 2 miles are the horses at the top of the
handicap. These horses are likely to have the speed to win, and
it is unlikely that any extra weight will be a significant detriment
to their performance.
The longer distance races however are different. These are

competitions where the winner needs to have stamina. The
fastest horses at the top end of the handicap may now find
that the weight they have been allocated does indeed become
a hindrance, and tires them early. This can be seen even
more when the going is soft. The winners of Handicap Hurdles
are horses with experience, and winning form over similar
conditions is a very strong factor to take into consideration.

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Novice Chase
The horses that run in these races are, due to the conditions of
race entry, inexperienced at jumping over fences. Obviously,
the most important factor for them will be navigating their way
over the large obstacles successfully. Therefore any previous
jumps’ performance in which the horse has done well, must
be taken seriously. A horse that takes well to chasing, when
entered for Novice Chases, can quickly get a number of
successive wins. So any horse which has won a Novice Chase
before, should also be taken seriously. It is best to leave the
poor quality races alone, as a horse who just manages to
survive all of the obstacles, can win.
Novice Hurdles
This race is the beginning of a horse’s National Hunt career,
although theoretically older horses can also compete, as long
as they have not won a hurdle race in the last season. Usually
though, the older horses do not have the speed that is required
to win these races. Speed is an essential requirement, as is the
ability to be able to learn jumping technique quickly. A horse
that takes to jumping can be fairly easy to spot and is likely to
keep winning.
Handicap Chases
These horses are at the end of their careers. Speed is much
less important in these races. This does not mean that you
can completely forget about the speed of a horse because,
ultimately, a winning horse has to run faster than the others.
However, a horse with good speed but poor jumping is likely
to be beaten by a horse with a slower speed but excellent
jumping. Because of the long distance of these races, they are
not run with full speed all the way, and the horses that have the
top handicap are likely to be the better jumpers. The weights
are unlikely to have much effect on many of the top horses,

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and a poor jumper will start to find it difficult when the pace
gets faster towards the end of the race. This is because as the
horse’s jumping starts to show flaws, the better jumpers will be
able to clear the obstacles comfortably.
This gives you a good overview of the areas to concentrate

on for each race. When you start to look at the form, you may
begin to feel a bit overwhelmed by the amount of information
that you need to be able to sift through, and what is important
and what is not. If this happens I recommend that you stop, get
yourself a cup of tea and a pad of paper, and then sit down and
go through each horse in the race. Making bullet points about
how each horse has performed, and whether it is improving or
not. It can often help to put the race type at the top of the page,
with notes on what is most important in the form as an easy
reminder.
You can use these to help you assess how a horse has run in
the past.
The 4 Main Elements Of Form

You can make a profit from your betting just analysing these
four different elements. Of course, as you get more experience,
if you can add some more advanced methods in it will benefit
you, however, focusing on these four elements initially will
generate you a profit.
(1) Race Types

The majority of people who bet on horses do not know the real
difference between the races. Without this knowledge, how can
you know which horses are likely to win the race? Here I will
be explaining the differences between race types. You will not
remember them to start with, but whenever you go to a race to
analyse, look at the race type and refer back to this part, so that
you start off by knowing what the race type means.

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Classic Races
There are five classic races during the flat season, and they
are the most valuable in both prize money and prestige. These
races are incredibly competitive and have the best horses with
the best jockeys, trained by the best trainers. The five classic
races are:
• The Derby
• The Oaks
• 1000 Guineas
• 2000 Guineas
• The Leger
These are the hardest races to select winners from. The fields
are normally large, with the most horses being at the peak of
fitness and having a winning chance.
Amateur Races
Amateur races are self explanatory. They are for the

enthusiasts who do not want to enter the sport on a
professional level, or for owners who want to ride their horses
in public. They are becoming a more popular event in the racing
calendar, and consequently there are more amateur races on
the race cards.
Apprentice Races
These races are to give young riders an opportunity to compete

amongst themselves, rather than against more experienced
jockeys. Apprentice races are split into two types. There are
races where the jockeys are only allowed to have ridden
a certain maximum number of winners, and then there are
those which are open to all. The biggest danger in these
races is inexperienced horses that are being ridden by equally
inexperienced riders.

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Auction Races
Auction races are limited to horses that were bought at public

auction as yearlings. They would have been sold at a specified
sale for below a certain amount. These types of race are
generally for 2 year olds, and are more often than not maiden
races. There are also Maidan Auction Races, which are for
maiden horses that have been sired by stallions, who have
achieved a median price for their yearlings at specific auctions.
These races are meant to allow cheaper yearlings to be raced
against like horses, as opposed to rivals that would be expected
to outclass them. You can occasionally find a horse that has a
racing ability, which far exceeds its purchase price, and thus
gives amazing value.
Claiming Races
Any horse that is entered into a claiming race can be bought

after the race. The price set for the horse is in the entry
conditions of the race. Depending on the value of the race,
Claiming Races are in a higher class than Selling Races. The
level of weight a horse receives in a Claiming Race is based
purely upon the claiming value that has been placed on them
by their stable and owners. This means that the higher valued
horses carry more weight, and the lower valued horses carry
less weight. These races are open to maidens and previous
winners. Therefore, there can be a large range of abilities within
a race.
Classified Stakes
This type of race is restricted to horses that have a maximum

handicap rating. The runners must have raced at least three
times previously. If a horse has won one of its previous races,
then the minimum number of races is reduced to two.

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Condition Races
These are very easy to understand flat races, which are open to
all horses that fulfil the entry conditions. These conditions can
be found in The Racing Post, underneath the name of the race.
The quality of these races range enormously from very high to
very low.
Condition Chases
Condition Chases are a National Hunt race with weight

allowance for age and sex. Chase races have large obstacles
for the horses to jump, which means that the races are run at a
slightly slower pace.
Condition Hurdles
Condition Hurdles are the same as Condition Chases, in that

there is a weight allowance only for age and sex, making it
pretty much a level weight race. The hurdles races have smaller
obstacles than other jump races.
Hunter Chases
These races begin with the National Hunt season and finish
around the end of May. Only horses that have been certified as
hunters, and have not taken part in any National Hunt or Flat
races after the 1st of November, can take part. These are long
distance races, usually held at a distance of about three miles.
Maiden Races
Maiden races are flat races that are restricted to horses that
have not yet won a race.

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National Hunt Flat
These races are specifically for horses that have never raced
in a Flat or National Hunt race, except for a National Hunt Flat
race. The only weight added is for age, sex allowance and
a penalty for a previous win. National Hunt Flat races used
to be for 4 year olds and older however, recently 3 year old
races have been introduced. These races are normally at a
distance of around two miles. National Hunt Flat races can
also be called bumper races, and were originally made to allow
National Hunt horses, without any racing experience, to have
their first try against similar competition. This of course means
that any horse that is entered into one of these races will be
inexperienced.
Novice Chases
Novice Chases have the same weight allowances for age, sex
and previous winners that you will find in Novice Hurdles. Only
horses that have not won a Chase race before the beginning
of the National Hunt season can participate in these races.
Obviously, in order to win this type of race the horse needs to
be a good jumper.
Novice Hurdles
This race is similar to the Conditions races, in that it has weight

allowances for age and sex. There is also an extra weight
allowance for any previous winners, unless that winner was
a Maiden Hurdle. This type of race is open to any horse that
has not won a hurdle race in the previous season, and to
horses that are in their first season of National Hunt racing. The
minimum distance for a Novice Hurdle race is two miles. There
is a minimum age of three years old.

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Selling Races
Both Flat and National Hunt horses can race in a Selling Race.
The distance for Flat starts at five furlongs and for National
Hunt at two miles. The horses in Selling Races are usually very
mediocre. Any horse that runs in a Selling race can be claimed
afterwards for a fixed value, which is stipulated by the entry
conditions to the race. Of course, this means that it is a way for
trainers and owners to get rid of horses that they don’t want.
The knock-on effect of which means that the race is full of low
quality horses. The benefit to the bettor is that a horse does not
need much ability to win!
Before we finish I would just like to have a quick look at some

Handicap Races. Handicap Races are designed to give
horses of different ability an equal chance of winning a race,
by making them carry different amounts of weight. The more
weight a horse carries, the better it is considered to be by the
handicappers. You will quite often find a tipster saying they
think a good horse has had its chances ruined by being given
too much weight. When making selections remember that
Handicap Races are meant to be competitive.
Handicap Chases
This is the same as all Chase Races, except this time of course
the horses are handicapped. In order to win this race, the horse
must be able to jump accurately, which is more important than
its weight. Of course, enough weight will stop any horse from
being able to win. Something to remember in Handicapped
Races is that weight has more of an effect if the going is soft.
Handicap Hurdles
It is recognised that in Handicap Hurdles run over a short

distance, the extra weight that horses are allotted actually holds
no disadvantage for the horse. This is because the better
the horse the higher the weight, so only the fastest will carry

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the top-weight, and they will still be able to outperform other

runners at shorter distances most of the time. However, over
longer distances the weight becomes much more of a factor in
slowing the horse down
Nursery Handicaps
These races are for two year olds only, and do not take place
until July. This means that the form will always be recent. You
can be very confident that two year olds who carry the top, or
near the top weight, are going to be the best horses in the race.
(2) Going & Weight

The going is important in all types of races, while the weight is
only significant in handicaps, where each horse has a different
weight assigned to it from the handicapper. The going can
completely reverse a horse’s proven form, and must be taken
very seriously indeed. It is also important to realise that the
going can change throughout the day and, although you can
still make a profit by taking note of what the official going is
declared as, it is best if you can to monitor it at the courses
on which you are betting throughout the day. You can only
consider a horse to run effectively on a going if it has proved it
can do so. Very similar goings, or small variations, are unlikely
to affect the horse or, at least, are unlikely to affect it much.
However, significant changes can have very bad effects.
Although it is possible that a very good horse will perform well
on any type of going, there is absolutely no doubt that it will
still have a preference. On occasion you will also find that a
trainer runs a horse on an unsuitable type of going and wins.
For example, a horse that is a good performer on Firm is run
on Heavy. This is normally luck, and the horse is very unlikely
to ever repeat this success. So do be wary of horses that
perform well over a certain type of going, but have one win
on a different type, the chances are that this will not happen
again. A lot of people believe that breeding produces horses

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that prefer certain types of going, and although breeding can

give suggestions, every horse is unique and nothing can be
confirmed until the horse has proven itself.
Over all, you want to be wary of a horse that is running on a

going for which it has no form at all, or has no form on a very
similar going. Even if you have this horse as a clear winner, I
would either stay away, or reduce your bet significantly, until it
has proven that it can perform well on this going repeatedly. If
you still want a bet, then a better option may be to look for an
each-way bet on another horse that you think may place.
We shall now move on to look at weight. Weight includes the

horse, the jockey, the saddle and the saddle cloths. If all of this
weight comes in at under the prescribed weight for a particular
race, then the horse wears thin lead weights in its saddle cloth
to make-up the difference. The purpose of weight is to level
the ability of the horses in the field. In a competition where the
horses have the same weight, then we are only looking at the
fitness and ability of each of the horses. When different weights
are used, then the process becomes much more difficult to
assess. The process of adding weights to a horse slows down
the quicker horses so they have parity with the slower horses.
It is very important to remember however, that although adding
weight to a good horse is going to slow it down, there is no way
to make a slow horse run faster.
At this stage of form reading, we want to decide on whether

we believe the handicapper has made a correct or incorrect
appraisal. In other words, do we believe that he has put too
much weight on, and the horse will simply run too slowly, just
the right amount of weight, or even possibly too little weight and
that, whichever of these it is, the horse will still run faster than
the others?
I am now going to look at some areas we have not so far

covered. There is an allowance in weight given based on the
sex of a horse. Colts and geldings get an extra 5lb of weight
when racing against fillies. This was introduced to allow for the
difference in the physical abilities between male and female

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horses. This weight allowance does not always show the true
difference between the abilities of the horses however, and
can give an advantage one way or the other. It can be broken
down very into two distinct points. The first is 2yo colts and
geldings. When they are racing early in the season, they are
likely to have a much greater physical advantage than the
5lb weight would suggest, you should take this into account.
However, when you are looking at a 3yo filly in the autumn, the
weight concession is an advantage since, due to their breeding
cycle, they start to develop physically at this time. You should
remember these two times, and pay attention to any horses that
may have this advantage. At other times the advantage is not
particularly significant.
Horses can also be given different weights based on their

age. These conditions are normally printed at the head of
the Race Card, and on the online race cards provided by the
Racing Post. It is important to know the conditions of a race.
You should know if there is a weight allowance and if there
is, what the weight/ age allowance is. Obviously, you should
take this into consideration for all the races that have a weight
allowance, but again I stress that you must also take particular
note of the goings. In softer grounds the weight can be a very
strong factor in deciding the winner of a race. If a horse has a
concession due to its age and is running on a heavy going, then
that will have a definite edge and it is important that you have
noticed this.
Weight penalties are what most people think of when they

look at the weight of a horse. This is the weight that a horse
has to wear due to its successes in past races. The size of the
penalty can be found in the entry conditions to the race, and
can range from 3lb to 10lb. If a horse is carrying a penalty,
or has been handicapped, then it will probably need to make
an improvement in order to cope with this extra weight. The
longer the distance of the race, the smaller the penalty that is
given, as the greater effect it has. You can look at whether a
horse is going to beat a penalty by breaking it down into three
components:

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1) The form of the winner
In a non-handicap race, the form of the winner is vastly superior

to all the other horses therefore the penalty will make no real
difference.
2) The size of the penalty
The lowest penalties that can be given are 3lb and 5lb, and
of course these are the easiest for a horse to overcome. It is
actually possible for a horse to overcome penalties of this size
just by having the experience of winning a race. A penalty of 7lb
is likely to defeat a horse that is not of a better class than those
it is racing against, or a horse who is dropping in class. A 10lb
or greater penalty is going to defeat any horse, except for those
that are making very quick progress and improvement.
3) The horses ability to improve
There is mixed thinking here, as some people believe that the

ability of a horse to improve cannot be judged from form, but
only from watching that horse. Others believe that it can be
gained from both. I believe that it can be gained from both. As
an example, if a horse wins a race and the commentary says
that ‘it ran all-out and just took the winning neck’ then this horse
is unlikely to improve in a race of this standard. However, if the
commentary says that the horse ‘won easily’, then it is likely
that the horse will make an improvement next time. This is an
example of how reading form can give you an insight into the
likelihood of a horse improving. Always take into account the
quality of the race, and the other horses it raced against, as well
as all the conditions we have talked about so when looking at
this particular factor.
As you can see, weight is an important consideration, but it

must be considered alongside everything else as well. It is
important to remember that you can never make a slow horse
run faster. You should also remember that weight has more
of an affect the longer the distance being run. On short races,
where no speed is possible until the final straight anyway,
weight is unlikely to make any real difference.

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(3) Race Classes

When handicapping and making your selections, class is a very
important factor to include. Having looked at the form, weight
and going, you will already be starting to have a good idea
of which horses are going to be the strong competitors in the
race. Now we can look at the class of the horses to see if this
causes any significant adjustment. A horse’s class quite simply
means the quality of the competitors it has raced against. It
goes without saying that the best class of horses will be the top
horses, and the worst class horses will be the worst.
Throughout the career of a race horse, it can change classes

and be raced in both higher and lower classes as well as
being raced in the same class. If a horse is going to be raised
in class, then it will have to improve to be in with a chance of
winning in the higher class, as it will now be racing against
better horses. A horse that is being run in the same class as
it has run in previously will either have to improve, or run at its
best form, in order to be in with a chance of winning. It is a very
easy mistake to assume that a horse that is lowered in class
will automatically be in with a much higher chance of winning a
race. This is not necessarily the case. The horse will still need
to prove that it is a consistent performer in the higher class, in
order to be in with a much better chance in a lower class.
For example, an owner wants his horse to be raced in a

particular race, so the trainer enters the horse in a higher class,
when it fails to win it is then lowered in class. There is then no
obvious reason to assume that this horse will be any better than
any of the others in the race.
The different classes, or Race Classifications, in horse racing

go from 1 to 7, with 1 being the best. When you are assessing
the form of the horse you should take note of which class it has
previously been racing in. As a general rule, a horse will keep
progressing in its performance, until it is about 5 years old, after
that it is unlikely that it will win against horses of a higher class.
Defining the class of a horse is a very difficult thing to do, the
more you do it the better you will get. You will also find that, on

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frequent occasions, you are likely to disagree with what other

people feel is a horse’s class, this is absolutely fine, just stick to
your own opinions.
One of the easiest ways of assessing class is by looking at

the classification of the race track that the horse is racing on
currently, and what were the classifications of race tracks it
raced on in the past. The following is a table of the tracks from
classes 1 to 5. I would suggest leaving alone races that are
classed as 6 and 7, as the quality is so poor it makes analysis
even harder than it normally is.
Grade 1
Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham (jumps), Doncaster (St.Leger

meeting only), Epsom (Derby only), Goodwood, Haydock
(jumps), Newbury, Kempton (jumps), Newmarket, Sandown,
York.
Grade 2
Ayr (jumps and Scottish National meeting), Chepstow (jumps),

Chester (May meeting only), Doncaster (1st March meeting
& late October meeting only), Epsom, Haydock, Kempton,
Lingfield (jumps), Newcastle (jumps), Wetherby (jumps),
Wincanton (jumps).
Grade 3
Ayr (September meeting only), Chester, Doncaster, Huntingdon

(jumps), Leicester, Lingfield (turf), Newcastle, Newton Abbot
(jumps), Redcar, Ripon, Salisbury, Stratford (jumps), Thirsk,
Warwick (jumps), Worcester (jumps), Yarmouth.
Grade 4
Ayr, Bath, Beverley, Brighton, Carlisle (jumps), Catterick

(jumps), Chepstow, Exeter, Folkestone (jumps), Fontwell,
Leicester (jumps), Market Rasen (jumps), Nottingham,
Pontefract, Towcester (jumps), Uttoxeter (jumps), Windsor,
Wolverhampton (jumps).

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Grade 5
Bangor, Carlisle, Cartmel, Catterick, Fakenham (jumps),

Folkestone, Hamilton, Hereford (jumps), Hexham (jumps),
Kelso (jumps), Lingfield (A.W.), Ludlow jumps), Musselburgh,
Perth (jumps), Plumpton (jumps), Sedgefield (jumps),
Southwell, Taunton (jumps), Warwick.
The above will give you a quick and easy reference guide to a
horse’s class. You can also look at the amount of prize money
that was available in a past race to get a more detailed idea
of the class of the horse’s past races. You will find that horses
race regularly at a few courses, and you should already know
whether a particular horse is running on a preferred course
today, or not, from your form analysis. Using the table, you will
now also be able to see whether it is still racing within its normal
classification, or whether it has moved out of it. This will tell you
if you should be taking a closer look. We can then use a horse’s
OR to give it a class. We will then compare the present track
class and the horse’s past track classes. This should give you
a fairly clear idea of where the horse stands. The table below
shows the OR ratings and the relevant class of the horse:
Flat Racing

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National Hunt Racing
(4) Jockeys & Trainers

This is the last piece of the puzzle we will be looking at, before
we put together everything we have learnt about handicappin.
The jockey is similar to the captain of a ship. A good jockey is
very important to how a horse is likely to perform. You should
always consider the jockey with the following statement in mind:
If you have a good jockey riding a poor horse, then the jockey
cannot make the horse win, but if you have a bad jockey on a
good horse, then the jockey can ruin the horse’s chances of
winning. This is very important to remember.
When you are at the races you can quite often hear mutterings
from people who have lost their bets saying that the jockey
made the horse lose. In fact, you will hear a lot of people saying
that horse racing is a very corrupt game. I don’t believe this to
be true. The reason simple; it is just not worth it! While there
are undoubtedly some people doing dodgy dealings, they will
be in the minority. When I said that it is not worth it, I don’t
mean to imply that the penalties, if they get caught, make it not
worthwhile. It is simply that the advantages of winning a race
for the owner, trainer and jockey considerably outweigh any
advantages gained by deliberately throwing a race. What you

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do get however, is a trainer who will sometimes put a horse in

a race where it is out-classed and the conditions do not suit
it. Obviously, in these circumstances, it is very unlikely to win.
There are legitimate reasons why the trainer may do this, for
example, to give the horse a particular type of experience. This
information will be there for you to see, but you must remember
to look for it. You should also remember that if a jockey is found
to be cheating, he becomes unemployable, and a jockey is
unlikely to want to throw away his career in this way.
We will now have a quick look at different types of jockeys.

Flat racing requires a different type of jockey to National Hunt.
National Hunt jockeys need to have all the same skills as flat
jockeys, plus some important additional ones. In flat racing you
have a maximum distance of 2m 6f, and a maximum weight
that a horse can carry which is around 10 stone. In National
Hunt you have a minimum race distance of 2m, and a minimum
weight that a horse will carry being around 10 stone.
As you can see flat racing is all about speed, which means
that the jockeys are usually smaller and more lightweight, not
more than 8.5 stone, and they rely on having excellent reflexes
and adapting to situations very quickly. A National Hunt jockey
also has to consider the obstacles they and their horses have
to jump, and the fact that these races are much more about
endurance than speed. National Hunt jockeys are normally
average height, and weigh about 10 stone. The racing life of a
National Hunt jockey is also considerably shorter than that of a
flat racing jockey. This is because National Hunt jockeys gain
their full physical ability in their twenties, however, the effect
of regular falls usually means that they have about 10 years of
good racing before injuries cause them to retire.
A flat race jockey does not have these obstacles, and their fall
rate is significantly lower. They can continue to improve, despite
getting older, as they do not encounter the same physical
demands. This means they can be at the height of their career
in their thirties, instead of thinking about retirement.

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So, how do we decide if a jockey is good or bad on this or that

horse? Well unfortunately, we don’t have much information
to go on. The jockey’s strike rate will tell us whether he is a
good or bad jockey and, if he has ridden this horse before, we
can see whether he has done so with any success. Although
remember, the conditions of the race must also be taken into
account when looking at a jockey’s relationship with a horse.
You should also look at a jockey’s strike rate at the course,

as anything less than 10% usually means that they are not
comfortable at that particular course. Lastly, we are able to
look at how good the jockey’s relationship is with the trainer.
There is a lot of competition for jockeys wanting to ride the best
horses. However, we do not need to worry about this, as we
only want to look at the relationship between the trainer and
jockey. A jockey might be on a retainer with a stable or owner
and ride all their horses. He might ride all their horses, but not
have a formal agreement or get a booking for racing.
For example, take a jockey such as K. Fallon riding for Sir

Michael Stoute, he would have an expected strike rate of over
25%. If a jockey has a strike rate of over 25% this is significant
and should be taken very seriously. If a top jockey also takes
a horse for a small stable, which he seldom rides for, and has
a good strike rate with them, this could also be a significant
selection pointer. The Top Jockey and Trainer tables in the
Racing Post paper can be used for a quick guide to see who
the best is. Simply put, if a jockey has a good strike rate, then it
is an important factor, and should be taken as a possible rise in
the horse’s ability. If the jockey also has a significant strike rate
with the trainer, then this becomes even more important. They
do not appear that often, and so must be taken very seriously
when they do.
The trainer can be judged from his past successes. You should
always look at a trainer in terms of strike rate, because if they
have only had 10 wins in a season, you may think poorly of
them. However, they may only have 25 horses in their stables,
in which case it would actually give them quite a good strike

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rate. If they had over 100 then, of course, it would be poor.

Horse racing in the UK is still very classist, and if a trainer is
unable to mingle well with the horse racing fraternity, then he
is unlikely to ever get the opportunity to race the best horses.
Owning the best horses is an expensive business, and the
best horses are usually owned by wealthy people who move in
closed circles. Even then the horses they buy can go wrong. A
famous example occurred in the early eighties when a horse
was bought in America for over 10 million dollars. It was never
raced, and when they came to use it at stud, it was infertile!
As mentioned before, the only way to judge a trainer is from

their strike rates. You can take 16%, and above, as the
minimum strike rate that a trainer should have. If you look
deeper into the strike rates, then other things can be revealed.
As a trainer, getting winning races from your horses is not just
about getting them to a peak of fitness, it is also about putting
them in the correct races. This means that you can delve into a
trainer’s strike rate at courses and meetings, as well as into the
jockey’s. Again, you can get this information from the Racing
Post.
For example, if a trainer had a 16% strike rate overall, but

his 2 year olds had a strike rate of 20%, and his horses that
were older than 3 had a strike rate of 12%, then you can put
a stronger emphasis on any of his 2 year old horses that are
racing, and less strong an emphasis on his others. This can
also be looked at in terms of race type, course and specific
meetings, such as the Guineas. When looking at a trainer’s
record on a particular course, you should check that they have
at least 16% strike rate. If they have a 20% strike rate it means
they are likely to be reliable, and 25% or higher is excellent.
Lastly, you can also get the Traveler’s Check in the Racing
Post, which tells you how far a trainer has traveled. Is this
important or not? There have been many systems made around
the fact that if a trainer is traveling a long way with just one
horse, then he must expect it to win! This could well be true, but
you must also consider that he may have many other motives.

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You can cross check this distance with his strike rate, and that
may give you a more accurate opinion. For example, if a trainer
is traveling 350 miles to a course where he has over a 30%
strike rate, then it is definitely worth him going. However, they
are likely to take a number of horses since taking just one is
expensive and probably never going to be cost effective even
if the horse wins, plus it will be a valuable racing experience for
the others.
Some trainers do just send one runner and this is looked at in

another aticle.
The best process for looking at trainers is to look at their

general strike rate. Then look at their strike rate on a particular
course, and whether this is spread evenly across different race
types, or whether they are better at certain race types more
than others. Then consider whether the trainer is in form, or not
with his recent runs, and then finally look at the trainer/jockey
team to complete the picture.

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Horse Selection Methods

Systems
Ten Year Trends

“Study the past, if you would divine the future.” Confucius
By looking at the past we can predict the future. Even a

Chinese Philosopher was talking about it 2,500 years ago.
We can predict the weather or stock market. In both the cases,

there are chances of errors, and the predictions highly depend
on the purity of data. But this is science and it’s massively used
in business, medical, research, etc. And of course, we can do it
with horse racing.
If you have been reading my posts in the forum, you will know
that I like to find the right profiles of previous winners to narrow

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down big Saturday or festival races, in particular handicaps, to

find a manageable group of horses to shortlist for further form
study.
That’s why I like www.horseracebase.com so much. It has

many of the tools required to carry out that task which would
otherwise take up far too much of time which I should be using
for form analysis.
I’m a “stats man” first and foremost nowadays and use trends
to find winners. Others disagree with this approach. It’s not for
everyone and I get it. But it suits my mind set and that’s what
matters. If you don’t like trending then you won’t find this article
of any use. However, the rest of you will hopefully gain some
insights on how to find some nice priced winners by using a
database like horseracebase.
Horseracebase isn’t only useful for trending purposes you can

use it to interrogate the data and build your own systems and
that’s something I will go into in the next article. But for now,
let’s concentrate on those big races.
Sorting Out the Wheat from the Chaff

Studies have shown that more filters or variables that you use,
doesn’t make you a more successful punter. Some people
say, of course, that the more information that you have the
better it is but more information isn’t necessarily good for you.
Too much of the wrong type of information can indeed have a
detrimental effect on your betting bank that’s for sure.
The key is to find the right information or sort out the “wheat
from the chaff” if you like. Sort out the useful stuff from the
downright unhelpful. If you can get rid of the useless information
not only does it clear your thought process but it can also
prevent you from heading in the wrong direction.
This article is on using ten-year trends in your betting. What

you should be looking for and what you should be avoiding and
most importantly how the “less is more approach” can be used

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to good advantage when looking at trends. But let’s begin by

taking a very quick introduction to the use of statistics in general
and in regard to betting on horses.
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
It was Mark Twain, writing his autobiography, who first

attributed to British Statesmen Benjamin Disraeli the quote
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Why did Twain use these words?
It’s because statistics can be manipulated to “prove” anything

someone wants them to “prove” if the person being subject
to the statistic doesn’t know how the stat was created, what
sample size was used…How can they see flaws in the figures?
Here’s a non-racing example of what I mean. If someone

tells you that 80% of people prefer dark chocolate to white
chocolate. As someone who prefers the latter. How do you feel
about that? Do you feel the odd one out because you prefer
white chocolate? What if the people who answered the survey
were just one person’s immediate family! How meaningful
would that figure be?
It’s all about the sample size, if it’s too small it will skew the
results. Likewise, if data is left out because it doesn’t conform
to the desired result it will also skew the results. It’s all too easy
to mislead yourself or of course others even when using “true”
statistical information.
If you have a scale from 1 to 100, a change from 44% to 46%

doesn’t look like a big one. However, if you have a scale from
40 to 50. The same percentage change would be much more
significant.
Looking at a racing example: The Champion Bumper at

Cheltenham. the last 11 renewals of the race:
“91% of Winners Were Aged 5 or 6”
That sounds a cracking stat/trend, whatever you want to call it

until you realise that 88% of the total runners were aged 5 or 6.

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You will often see or hear a pundit say Jockey A has a 50%-
win strike rate when teaming up with Trainer B at a particular
course. If they have combined just four times how reliable is the
statistic? Not very reliable.
Firstly, the sample size is too small and more significantly the
winners might have all come with the same horse.
The value of any statistic lies purely in the sample size. If I

mention that “the proportion of races won by the favourite is
running at a healthy 33%”. That one-third figure has been about
the same since betting on horses began and will never really
change. What It doesn’t mean is that today’s six race card at
Fakenham will see two favourites win. No favourites may win
that day or all six races could be won by the market leader.
Another statistic that’s proven is that a horse’s chance of

winning a race are reflected in its odds. If you bet on every
even money shot you will lose but you will lose less than if you
backed every horse at 3/1 which in turn would lose you less
money than if you backed every horse at 5/1.
Those are stats that will always be with us.
It was never my intention to delve too deeply into use of

statistics here. If you want to learn more about stats, I
recommend this site: http://onlinestatbook.com/ and this old but
still useful book by Darrell Huff, “How To Lie With Statistics”
which you can download as a PDF.
https://www.horace.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/How-to-Lie-
With-Statistics1954-Huff.pdf
The Ten-Year Trends

I have a confession to make. I am a big fan of the ten-year
trends analysis when it comes to big races. I like the idea of
predicting future performance based on historical data. Big race
trends have found me some great priced winners in the past but
they haven’t been the golden key to profitable betting.

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Now you will see plenty of good 10-year-trends analysis out

there. Simon Rowlands in his insightful Rowley File on the
Timeform website, will look at some of the key ones when he’s
analysing a big race. Kevin Morley looks at big race trends in
the Racing Post.
There are many systems based on following the trends of ‘key

races’. From personal experience, I can say that following big
race trends does work for some, but not all races. The very fact
that it does seem to work on certain races means it’s worthy of
further research.
Many big races have been run for 20-years or more, so it is

possible to look back at past winners to get an idea of the type
of horse capable of winning. They are normally run at the same
point of the year each season. Trainers will prepare horses in
the same way as previous years and indeed their prep races
could be the same as for previous winners.
You can build up a profile of each race to find horses running

with a similar profile that is worth further study. At the very least
this trends approach can help reduce a 30-runner field down to
a manageable shortlist of contenders. It’s that list of contenders
that you can further form study on.
Why ten years?

Firstly, most people quickly understand what is meant by ten-
year trends. It’s the phrase most often used. You don’t hear
many people saying 5-year or 20-year trends when looking at a
big race from a trend’s perspective.
Secondly, it’s all about the sample size. The bigger the sample
size the more likely you are to have confidence in the accuracy
of that stat or trend. If you are looking at say just five years’
worth of results you may not have enough data to work with.
It is always worth reminding yourself that the value of any

statistic lies purely in the sample size.

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Looking at the Epsom Derby. I can go into a database like

www.horseracebase.com and look at the last twenty running’s of
the race:
Or I could look at just the last ten-years:
Or I could just look at the last five renewals of the race:
The five year one wouldn’t really give me a large enough

sample to be confident of the accuracy of my findings.
Clearly the more established a race is, the more validity you
can give to trends analysis.
That leaves working with either the 10-year or 20-year trends.

Now the one to go with should be the twenty year one, given
we have almost twice as many results to work with or should it?
This links in with my final reason for using the ten-year figure.
Finally, it’s all about relevance. What might have been an

important trend ten years ago may not be now.
For example, the distance of a race can change, in January we

had the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton. The race used
to be run over 2m but in 2007 the distance was changed to 2m
5f. Using 20-years’ worth of trends would be a total waste of
time given the big change in race distance. Now that’s a rather
extreme example in action but you will get my meaning.
The Grand National is another race where trends have changed

in recent years. The recent increase in prize money combined
with the easing of the fences means the nature of the race has
changed from what it was like fifteen years ago.

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That’s not to say we can’t still use trends to reduce the field
down from 40 runners to a smaller shortlist. It just means the
trends that were relevant in the past may not be now.
In short, it’s all about striking a balance between sample size

and continued relevance when it comes to trends.
Keep it relevant.
The key remains to sort the “wheat from the chaff’ or the
relevant from the irrelevant.
You will see plenty of pundits use ten-year trend type stats.
You may hear someone on one of the racing channels say
favourites have won a particular selling hurdle at Fakenham,
just once in the past ten-years.
Here’s what I mean
On Friday 15th February we have a selling hurdle on the

Fakenham card with the Ashwicken Selling Handicap Hurdle
over 2m. This race has ten years of history and as you can see
from the Racing Post, just two favourites have won the race
since 2010.
Now would you rely on that stat? Plenty of punters would.

Well I wouldn’t. To rely on that would be folly as there is no
significance with the past nine running’s of such a minor race
like this Fakenham race.

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Why do I say that? Well for a start the sample size is too small
and the timescale too large for such a small sample. If you want
to look at the fate of favourites, in a particular race like the one
highlighted then you would be advised to look further. I would
want a bigger sample and to get that I would look at similar
races at the track in the past 10- years.
Here’s how I would go about it. I would look at the results for all
handicap sellers at Fakenham! For that I once again turn to the
ever reliable www.horseracebase.com. As you can see since
the start of 2008 there have been 41 selling handicap hurdles at
Fakenham:
What we immediately have is a much bigger sample size to

work with, than just the results for our highlighted race.
Now let’s focus on the fate of the favourites?
As you can favourites have won 19% of all selling handicap

hurdles at Fakenham from 14% of the total runners.

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Now you wouldn’t make money backing every favourite in such

races at the course, far from it.
However, at least you know that you are dealing with a

more solid stat than looking at the 10-year trends for the one
individual race.
There are occasions when you can rely on favourite stats for an
individual race. They tend to be the higher-class of race which
attract plenty of punters to have a bet.
Let me illustrate this with another working example. On

Saturday 15th February we had Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)
at Ascot.
Looking at the ten years trends:
Turning to the fate of the favourite:
Seven of the last ten renewals of the Ascot Chase have been
won by the favourite! Now, for me that’s a very significant stat
and it’s also backed up by the high Chi score.

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Digging further we can look at the fate of the favourite in all

Ascot Grade 1 Chase over the same time period.
Now granted there are not many Grade 1 chases at Ascot each
season but you can see from the above results that favourites
have a very good record in such races.
Now you’re probably thinking I have used above race and type
as an example because favourites have such a good record.
That’s not the case at all. I‘m not suggesting you should back
favourites in Grade 1 chases at Ascot, although it would be
profitable to do so, but it hopefully gives you a clearer picture as
to why individual trends are useful when it comes to looking at
big races rather than a selling hurdle at Fakenham.
It’s all about the sample size.

I mentioned earlier that’s why I go for ten-year trends when it
comes to individual big races.
However, there are times when the sample size is big enough
that you can use just fiveyear’s worth of trends.
For example, let’s look at the fate of the favourite in all National
Hunt, non-handicaps since the start of 2015.

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As you can see favourites have won 46% of NH non-handicap

races in the period under study. Now if you dig a little further
and look at the fate of the favourite by track. For the purposes
of this example and for sample size I have only used those
racecourses with 100+ qualifiers and ordered them by the
highest A/E.
You might be wondering why I have just used favourites for my

various examples.
It’s very simple.
It’s the only time I would consider looking at 10-year trends

outside of big races, even then, I wouldn’t just use the favourite
trends for one individual race I would be looking at analysing
similar races over the track to get a better sample size.
In summary, one has to be cautious when using 10-year trends.
They are meaningless when it comes to analysing minor day to

day to races. However, if you want to use them make sure you
are analysing similar types of race to get a decent sample size.

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Big Race Trends: My Approach

When looking at using trends to analyse a big race. The key
remains to sort the relevant from the irrelevant trends.
Now the more trends you use the more likely “backfitting” will
come into play. I am not a fan of the word. I much prefer to use
the word “overfitting”. In the main because by its very nature if
you are using historic trends to look at a race you are to some
extent “backfitting”. I don’t think there is any way you can avoid it.
Finding The Relevant Trends

The “less is more” approach is very relevant when it comes
to trending a race. I find the more trends that you use the less
accurate the trends are likely to be. If you find that you can’t
narrow down the field to four or five trends, then maybe that
race isn’t one to be looking to have a bet in.
How do you find the most relevant or important trends for a big
race?
It’s a good question and it’s probably the hardest thing to learn
when it comes to trending a big race.
For some races the horse’s age or its Official Rating (OR) could
be a significant trend. In other races it could be the days since
the last run or it could be last time out placing, or even the draw
although the latter trend is only relevant to flat racing.
The Grand National, the Lincoln Handicap, The Chester Cup,

The Ebor and Cambridgeshire all lend themselves well to ten-
year trends analysis. All these races have been going for many
years, they have large fields and thus a reliable sample size.
Arguably the most important aspect of trends analysis is that

they can reveal elements that you may not have found by
more normal methods of race analysis. Maybe a race favours
younger or less experienced handicappers or higher weighted
runners. Such information would be an essential element of
assessment of the runners in a race.

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The best way to explain my trending race analysis is by

showing it to you in action. To do this I have chosen two
different races, so you can see what trends I believe are the
most relevant to that race.
The two races I have chosen are totally random, in that I

haven’t done a “less is more” trend analysis on either race
before last year (2019), so I will use the data and my notes from
then.
The first race I have chosen is the Lincoln Handicap, the first
big flat handicap of the season and the second race is the
Scottish Grand National at Ayr. As ever the ever reliable www.
horseracebase.com is my guide when looking at the trends for
big races.
The Lincoln Handicap

The Lincoln Handicap is run over Doncaster’s straight mile and
normally attracts an average field size of twenty runners.
Here are the stats for the last ten renewals of the race upto
2018.
Now, I am looking to find between 3 and 5 key trends that will

provide clues as to the type of horse that may win the Lincoln
this year.
So, what are the key trends?
Whatever the type of race, unless it’s for say 3-year-old’s only,
age is the first thing I look at.

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Age:
The first thing we can see is that horses aged 7+ are

0 winners from 47 runners 8 placed 17% when the
expected winners should have been 2.
The most successful age group in recent years are 4-year-

olds with five winners or 50% of the winners from 22% of the
runners.
Odds SP:
The next trend I will look at is Odds SP. The biggest priced
winner of the Lincoln in the past ten years is 25/1 and the
shortest is 3/1.
The sweetspots in terms of odds seem to be those runners sent

off between 12/1 & 25/1.

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Runners at such odds are performing 24% better than market

expectations.
Meanwhile those runners going off 28/1 & bigger are

0 winners from 59 runners 3 placed 5%
Official Rating:
Not much to go here but those horses with a BHA mark of 105+
are - 0 winners from 25 runners 6 placed 24%.

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Handicap Wins:
Runners with 4+ handicap wins are 1 winner from 76

runners 1.32% 13 placed 17%
Draw:
As it’s a big field race on a straight track I will look at the effect
of the draw, if any.
Using the draw segment tool on horseracebase we get the

following:
Looking at those results horses drawn closer to each rail have

slightly outperformed those drawn in the middle two quarters.

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Last Race Placing:
Looking at those results last time out winners are outperforming

those runners who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th on their last start – 2
winners from 57 runners 5 placed 9%.
Days Since Last Run:
Given it’s the first flat turf meeting of the year the day’s since
last run trend could be significant one.

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And so, it proved, albeit not the way you might have thought.
Now at this point it’s probably crucial to add that those results
include two winners who had been racing out in Dubai at the
Meydan Winter Carnival so had run in the previous 151 days.
In this case I would use the Meydan horses last run in Britain or
Ireland.
Lincoln Trends Verdict

Looking at the trends. I would be happy to concentrate on
runners with following traits:
1. Horses aged 4yo to 6yo.
2. That last raced in Britain or Ireland between 151 to 240 days

ago, thus ignoring any runs abroad.
3. That were sent off 25/1 or less.
So, we have 100% of the winners sharing those three

categories from just 25% of the total runners.
There will be an average of about five qualifiers each year

which can then be looked at and analysed using more
traditional form study methods.

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The Scottish Grand National

This 4m handicap chase is held each year in April.
I have used this as an example of my approach because it

highlights some of the key differences between what trends are
relevant on the flat but not over jumps and what applies to both
codes.
Like the Lincoln it’s a race with a long history and one that
attracts a big field. Thus, making it an ideal one for some
trending.
If you had backed all 268 runners, you would have shown a
loss to SP of £80 to a £1 stake.
As with the Lincoln, we need to narrow down the number of

bets but at the same time find a high percentage of the previous
10 winners.
In the latter case I am looking to keep at least 80% of the total

previous winners and at the same time cut the number of
runners by at least half.
Age:
Once again starting with horses age.

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Unlike the previous race winners have come from ages 7 to 11

and there are no age groups that standout.
Odds SP:
Nothing significant here.
There have been winners at 25/1, 33/1 & 40/1 and two at single
figure odds.

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Official Ratings:
Looking at the BHA mark.
Runners with an OR, below 133 and above 146 are 1 winner
from 91 runners 1% -72 12 placed 13%, they could have been
expected to have had 4.47 wins.

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Last Race Placing:
Horses that finished in the top six on their last start have won
eight of the last ten renewals but they did provide 63% of the
total runners.
Days Since Last Run:

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Again nothing too significant although 90% of the winners

had run within the previous 45-days they provided 79% of the
runners.
Given this is a National Hunt race we don’t need to worry about

the draw.
Runs In Season:
As the race comes at the end of the winter jumps season. It’s
worth checking to see the importance of the number of runs that
season.
And we can see that you don’t want runners that have had less
than two runs that season or had seven or more. Such runners
are - 0 winners from 71 runners -73 10 placed 14%.
If you had backed all those qualifiers you would have lost £71
to a £1 stake.

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Runs Since Last Win:
What stands out here is that a recent win is an important factor.
Those that had gone 5+ runs since their last win are 1 winner
from 105 runners -95 15 placed 14%. The expected
number of winners should have been 4.51.
Headgear:
Whatever race, flat or jumps, I am trending I will always take a

glance at headgear and its impact on the results.

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In the last ten years just one horse has worn headgear to win
the race and that was Vicente in 2016 & 2017. Interestingly
horses wearing blinkers, cheekpieces or a visor are performing
well below expectations – 0 winners from 96 runners -96
6 placed 6% – we could have expected such runners to have
won 4 races.
Scottish Grand National Trends Verdict
Going by these ten-year trends you can see that the winner is
most likely to:
1. To have a BHA mark between 127 to 146.
2. To have had between 3 or 6 runs that season.
3. Would not be dropping back in class from their last run.
4. And not wearing headgear or hood only.
Using the above four filters gives us all the last ten winners of
the race from just 34% of the total runners.
You can use those filters to cut down the field to a small group
of contenders before analysing race through form, speed or
whatever method you use.

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It’s a very simple, yet powerful, approach! And it’s one that
I have been using to good effect at this year’s Cheltenham
Festival.
In summary: Ten-year trends are a fantastic tool to use when it

comes to looking at big races either handicap or non-handicap.
Using the “less is more” approach to trends analysis is key to
improving your betting. You really don’t need to be using lots of
filters. Indeed, the more filters you use the more confusing the
analysis and the less reliable the trends become.
Use Of Trend Stats

Trends analysis is the art of studying past results for the big
races to identify certain trends and patterns to build a profile of
a typical winner.
As you might expect the techniques used for analysis and

interpretation of past data or trends have been used in the stock
market to try and predict what is going to happen in the future
based on past performance.
A few years back, Simon Rowland’s from Timeform wrote an

article in his Betfair column about trend stats and he said this of
Trend stats:
“Apparently positive or negative generalities are identified from

past editions of the same race – do sometimes have merit. But
they are also the source of a great number of... half-truths and
falsehoods.”
He then went on to post a number of warnings that do need

heeding when using trends analysis.
• If a trend exists, it will affect not just winners but losers and
the degree to which the winners win and the losers lose:
trends analysis should always reflect this.
• In addition, concentrating on winners alone often results in

small samples and questionable findings.

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• Trends, where they exist, usually change over time, so be

wary of information from a long way back.
• Question seriously any findings that do not seem to obey

logic and common sense: they may well be down to chance.
Disregard trends analysis that assumes all factors are of the
same significance and which advocate filtering (e.g. Horse
A qualifies on four of five criteria when the missing criterion
outweighs all the others combined).
• Understand that many writers on trends, such as writers

about astrology and things that go bump in the night, have
space to fill for a gullible public and jobs to hold down: it is
in their best interests to make trends seem more significant
than they are.
• The easiest way to make trends seem more significant than

they are is to analyse them crudely, such as by considering
winners only from the past ten years, with the result that
chance happenings appear significant to the credulous.
I think this neatly sums up some of the pitfalls in over reliance

and the potential misuse of trends analysis.
It’s all sensible stuff there, but there is an area where five or 10
year trends can be very useful in narrowing down contenders
and that’s in the big races and at the big festivals. However,
they won’t be of much use in finding the winner of a class 6
handicap at Pontefract.
The expertise of punters – or for that matter capper’s who use

trends analysis – lays in the importance they place on each
trend. That is why you will often see cappers who use big race
trends coming up with different selections in the same race.
Some key trends that can be focused on are:
• Age of the winning horses for the race being analysed..
• The weight carried by the winner.
• Stall of the winner
• Number of runs in the last 90 days.

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• Official Rating of the winner.
• Last time out placing.
There are of course plenty of other factors that can be looked at

when carrying out trends analysis to those mentioned.
Trends analysis can be a useful tool for looking at big races and
big festivals but they shouldn’t be over relied on and always
have an awareness that some trends can be more significant
than others.
It’s fair to say that more and more punters are using stats to try
to find winners but most of them are relying on the wrong kind
of stats or don’t really know how to use the stats to maximum
effect.
The two biggest mistakes that punters can make are:
1. To rely on a small sample size. A trainer might have had two

wins from three runners at Pontefract for a 67% win strike rate
but however exciting that stat may look it’s too small a sample
to rely on.
2. Punters don’t take into consideration the profitability of a stat.

A trainer could have a 25% strike rate with his first time two
year olds at Pontefract but what that headline 25% win strike
rate doesn’t tell us if backing all that trainers first time out two
year old runners would have yielded a profit or loss.

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System Creation
As noted in the previous article on Ten Year Trends,
Horseracebase isn’t only useful for trending purposes you can
use it to interrogate the data and build your own systems which
we will look at here.
As examples we will look at creating a system based on trainers

and strike rate at tracks they perform best at and then flipping it
and looking at a particular race track and trainers that do well at
that particular track.
The GB National Hunt scene has been dominated for a number

of years by a select group of top performing trainers, with the
likes of Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton and Colin
Tizzard mopping up many of the big races throughout the
racing calendar year.
The problem, or challenge, is that it can be difficult to profit

when following their runners blindly because the cat is well and
truly out of the bag, and the bookies will often try to price up
their entries at odds below their runners’ respective chances of
winning.
Here is a classic example:
Paul Nicholls
The Nicholls yard operates out of Manor Farm in Ditcheat,
Somerset and the trainer was crowned Champion Trainer for
the 11th time at the end of the latest National Hunt campaign.
If we take a look at the Nicholls runners over the last 5 years we

find the following:

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Despite a consistent and remarkable 20%+ strike rate over the

last 5 years you would have made a level stake loss to Industry
Starting Prices of 381pts, and lost 13p for every pound of your
hard earned you had staked on his runners blindly.
The figures can be improved upon if you had placed your

bets at Betfair SP, but you would still have experienced a loss
nonetheless.
There is always the possibility of spending time investigating to

see if you can find a specialised angle to approach the Nicholls
runners from and see if you can decipher his modus operandi
and concentrate on the best performing areas…but that’s
something you may wish to discover for yourselves…
A further problem we can encounter when looking at the

runners of trainers of this calibre is that on many occasions they
will have multiple horses from the yard competing against each
other in the same races. Now as an owner you would want to
ensure that your trainer puts your horse forward, if it is up to
the challenge, for a crack at the best races and biggest prizes,
but this makes hard work for us punters in sorting out which of
those runners is up for it on the day.
A recent example from the Nicholls camp was the run up to

the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. All of the talk was
of Cyrname who had lowered the colours of Altior, who had
previously been unbeaten over jumps, in the 1965 Chase at
Ascot in November.
Cyrname went off as the 5/4 favourite on Boxing Day with

the Colin Tizzard Lostintranslation deemed to be the main
challenger on the day.

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However Paul Nicholls also had another runner in the race,

Clan des Obeaux, who had won the prestigious event 12
months prior. Despite having won the race previously Clan des
Obeaux went off at 11/2 and had been even larger in the early
markets.
And yes you guessed it, it was Clan des Obeaux that romped
home to victory with 21 lengths in hand leaving his stablemate
toiling in second place!
Most punters didn’t see that coming.
If we take the above into account we certainly feel that there

may well be merit in looking for a select group of trainers which,
also have shown a winning profile in recent times, may still offer
a little more value when sending their runners to a track.
The initial research was on looking at trainers with a better than

20% strike rate average over the last few years.
First up is Harry Fry:
Harry Fry
Harry Fry is a prodigy from the Nicholls yard. Based at
Seaborough in Dorset Fry has held his trainers licence since
2012 and by 2016 had already broken through the £1 million
pound prize money barrier. The suggestion is that Harry Fry will
undoubtedly be a future top player in the National Hunt racing
scene.
Having been based at Seaborough stables where he originally

operated as a satellite yard for Paul Nicholls, sending out Rock
On Ruby to win the Champion Hurdle, Fry has now given notice
of his intent to leave the yard at the end of this season and will
be moving to his family’s farm at Halstock, Dorset at the end of
this season.

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It is fair to say that last season’s 47 winners (April 2018-April

2019) fell a little below the usual level, but Grade 1 wins from If
The Cap Fits and Unowhatimeanharry in April more than made
up for this.
With 21 winners already on the board the yard looks primed for
a stellar campaign this time around with a good mix amongst
the 75 horses in their care.
Dr Richard Newland
Having quietly been combining a successful career as a GP
the “Good Doctor” had been quietly going about his training
activities before becoming a household name by training
Pineau De Re to win the 2014 Crabbie’s Grand National, his
first ever runner in the race.
In September of last year Newland upped the ante by taking on

a “top-of-the-range” facility in Worcestershire which allowed for
an expansion that could see a doubling of the number of horses
under his stewardship.
Tom Lacey
Set in rural Hertfordshire, Tom Laceys’ career started schooling
young horses under Captain Charles Radclyffe. Working

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through the ranks he worked as a pupil assistant trainer in two

National Hunt stables before becoming Head Lad for one of the
leading flat trainers before taking on his own licence to train.
As can be seen from the above 2019 wasn’t the best of years
but there has to be a slight correction on occasions, after a
number of years which had seen an increasing number of
winners on the bounce.
Lacey has also made a steady start to the current campaign,

and his patient approach invariably pays dividends as the
season progresses, and he has shown that he can place his
Ledbury team to good effect.
Anthony Honeyball
Anthony Honeyball comes from a racing background with his
father John Honeyball having been a successful trainer, and his
Anthony’s mother having been a talented show jumper.
His training career began in 2006 after having been a

conditional jockey for Paul Nicholls and ridding 45 winners
under rules.
Initially training from his parents Quantock farm in Somerset

he proceeded to rent a stable yard from Richard Barber in
2012 which allowed him to train independently and expand his
training.
The yard had a really positive start to 2020 with the big race
win for Jepeck in the £61,900 Veteran Series Chase Final
at Sandown. The horse’s campaign was a bit of a plot with
connections having protected his handicap mark by keeping the
horse over hurdles.

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The outcome was however almost spoiled as in the race he and

his jockey Rex Dingle were almost carried out by a loose horse
approaching the final fence. Luckily they managed to get back
on the track in the nick of time, but the incident cost them vital
momentum and Jepeck did well to regain the lead and hold on
by a short head from Regal Flow with Theatre Guide a neck
away third.
So having introduced the 20% team let’s take a closer look at

how we can use these yards runners going forward.
Many trainers, for fear of repeating themselves do have a habit

of their training and placing of horses in races. Some may often
favour particular race tracks for a variety of reasons including
the tracks location to the stable, the track configuration, or types
of fences to name a few.
We have considered each of the trainers’ records and the

following would appear to be the tracks which have offered a
consistent success for the respective trainers and their runners.
Harry Fry The following tracks have provided good returns for
Harry Fry’s runners during the last 5 years:-
Ascot, Bangor, Carlisle, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell,

Haydock, Kelso, Leicester, Market Rasen, Sandown, Southwell
and Uttoxeter.
Breaking down the runners by tracks shows:

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The runners that Harry Fry sends to the above tracks should be
noted, but can we add any additional pointers to improve on the
bare figures, which to be fair are pretty solid?
There were more runners in Non-Handicaps (260) than there

handicapping counterparts (196) but both sets produced a more
or less equal share of the total profit.

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Logically that fact does point to the latter group having a better
ROI (47.19% vs 43.01% at BFSP), so possibly if you wanted
to reduce the number of bets you could concentrate on the
Handicap runners only.
The Strike Rates across the three codes of NH racing, Chase,

Hurdle and Bumpers were roughly the same.
Although the trend may alter with time based on the research it
would suggest that the yard is very much focused on the main
section of the NH calendar which runs from October through to
April, although the figures for May are quite positive.
With that in mind ignoring runners during the period of June

through to the end of September, wouldn’t see us miss out on
any profit but would reduce the number of bets overall.

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It may be a testament to his placing skills as not many runners

from the stable go off at big prices so by concentrating on those
at 14/1 or lower would generally improve the overall P&L.
None of those that went off at 16/1 or higher had won over the
review period at the key tracks.
System: Back Harry Fry National Hunt runners at the above

tracks during the months of October through to May ignoring
those runners likely to go off at 16/1 or larger.
As an aside, looking a little deeper into the Harry Fry figures

we can see that with his Bumper runners, those making their
racecourse debut, have achieved a cracking 42.86% Strike
Rate and pretty much all the profit in that sub group.

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Sub-System: Back Harry Fry (National Hunt Flat runners)

making their NHF debut when running at the above tracks.
Dr Richard Newland The “Good Doctor” appears to enjoy

good returns from the following courses:
Ascot, Ayr, Bangor, Carlisle, Cheltenham, Fakenham, Haydock,

Huntingdon, Kelso, Leicester, Market Rasen, Musselburgh,
Perth, Sandown, Sedgefield, Uttoxeter and Wetherby.
Digging a little deeper into the data it would appear that the
Handicappers have achieved a better record than those runners
in the Non-Handicap races.
Sure there was profit to be had from the latter group but
a higher return on investment would have come from the
Handicappers.
System: Back Dr R Newland’s Handicap runners at the tracks

shown above.
Tom Lacey These are the venues that the Lacey yard has
enjoyed success at during the last 5 years:
Aintree, Ascot, Catterick, Chepstow, Exeter, Fontwell,

Huntingdon, Lingfield, Newcastle, Plumpton, Southwell,
Stratford, Taunton, Warwick, Wincanton.

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As the horses gain more experience the stats may alter

somewhat but based on the data over the 5 year period the
Bumper and Hurdle runners were the more profitable types than
their chasing counterparts.
Tom Lacey has a similar profile to that of Harry Fry when it

comes to the summer months and therefore leaving those
during May-August probably is a sensible call.

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System: back Tom Laceys’ runners in Hurdles and NHF races

when running at the above tracks during September-April.
Anthony Honeyball The Honeyball yard have produced some

positive results over the previous 5 years at these tracks:
Aintree, Ascot, Cartmel, Exeter, Fontwell, Huntingdon,

Leicester, Lingfield, Ludlow, Southwell, Stratford, Taunton and
Warwick.
There was quite a marked difference between the financial

performances of the Non-Handicappers to those that ran in
Handicaps to the point where preference should be given to the
latter group.
System: Back Anthony Honeyballs Handicap Chasers and

Hurdlers when running at the above tracks.
The exceptions are Anthony Honeyballs’ Bumper runners.

Again these are worth taking note of when running at the above
tracks.
System: Back Anthony Honeyballs’ Bumper runners when

running at the preferred tracks mentioned above.
All the above gives us a nice little trainer “system” based around
a common theme plus two sub-systems (micro-systems), but,

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as ever, we need to bear in mind that it is based on historic data

and may not perform as expected going forward.
All the selections can be bet as is or can be further refined on

the race day, with regards to the going etc.. to finally decide
whether or not to bet the selection.
Down Royal Racecourse

Throughout the year I regularly look at race courses and collate
stats on them that may un-earth profitable angles. Here we will
look at Down Royal.
I will first look briefly at the track’s location, history, configuration

to give you some background and will also highlight some
significant track stats.
History and Location Down Royal racecourse is one of only

two racecourses in Northern Ireland. Although it’s part of the
United Kingdom, horse racing in the province comes under the
authority of Horse Racing Ireland. Just like with Rugby Union
the sport is run on an All-Ireland basis.
The racecourse is located just over 4 miles from the city of

Lisburn in Co. Down and just 14 miles from the centre of
Belfast.
Racing takes place all year round at the venue and hosts both
flat and jumps meetings. The track hosts twelve days racing
each year. The two-day Festival of Racing in early November
plays host to several graded races, including the Champion
Chase, first Grade 1 of the winter jumps season in Ireland, and
is the highlight of the Down Royal racing calendar.
The two-day Ulster Derby Festival held in June is the highlight

of the track’s flat season. Other big race days held at the course
take place on St Patrick’s Day and St Stephen’s or Boxing Day
as it’s known in Britain.
Racing first took place in the area in 1685 after King James
II issued a Royal Charter and formed the Down Royal

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Corporation of Horse Breeders. The aim of which was to

encourage the “Breed in the County of Down”.
“Byerly Turk” one of the three foundation stallions of the Stud

Book is said to have raced at Down Royal which if true would
make him the most famous horse to have ever raced in the
area. Horse racing has taken place at the present location since
the early 18th Century on land donated by the 1st Marquess of
Downshire.
Over 300 years of horse racing in the area looked like it might
come to an end in 2018 after a dispute between the owners
Merrion Property Group, and the track management, Down
Royal Corporation of Horse Breeders. Thankfully this was
averted as Merrion Property Group said they would take over
management of the racecourse.
In 2019 Ladbrokes were unveiled as the new sponsor of

Down Royal’s November Festival of Racing in a three-year
partnership. The sponsorship deal was the largest in the
racecourse’s history.
Track Configuration
Flat - A right-handed circuit of just under two miles in
circumference and is almost square in shape.
Flat course
The flat course is an undulating and galloping track. There is a

downhill run to the straight and a slight uphill finish. Despite the
galloping nature of the track there are plenty of turns. It can be

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a deceptive track and jockeys & horses can get racing too far
out which means horses held up can get involved in the finish if
the pace hasn’t been judged correctly.
The 5f sprint races, which start from a chute, are all about
speed and a low draw can be a big advantage for horses that
break well.
Hurdle - Like the flat track the hurdling course is undulating

and galloping in nature with a short run in of about 1 & half
furlongs from the last.
Hurdle course
Chase - Like the hurdle course the chase course has a short
run in from the last. In chases over two miles no fence is
jumped more than once.
Chase course
The jumps track is considered a fair track and if a horse isn’t

too far out of its ground it has a decent chance if the gallop
has been an honest one. On very soft or heavy ground you will
often see jockey’s go out wide in search of the best ground.

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Down Royal Racecourse Key Stats

Let’s begin by looking at some general stats at the racecourse
including clear favourites and winning odds.
The stats below are from Jan 1st, 2015 to the time of my last
review (10/01/20) and cover all jump meetings at the course.
Once again, I am using the ever useful www.horseracebase.com

for all the stats.
Beginning with National Hunt racing.
The results below contain 309 winners from 3365 runners 851
placed and on the flat 116 winners from 1159 runners 317
placed.
Favourites – National Hunt
Clear favourites have produced the following set of results:
119 winners from 284 runners 42% -4.54 A/E 1/05 202 placed
71 %.
Breaking those results down into handicap & non-handicap

races gives us:
• Non-handicaps – 102 winners from 193 runners 53% +27.53

+27.53 A/E 1.15 150 Placed 78%.
• Handicaps – 17 winners from 91 runners 19% -32.07 A/E

0.69 52 placed 57%.
Summary: Favourites have a good record in National Hunt

races at Down Royal with non handicap favourites winning 53%
such races and performing 15% above market expectations.
Favourites – Flat
Clear favourites have produced the following set of results:
34 winners from 104 runners 33% -5.81 A/E 0.92 71 placed

68%.

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Breaking those results down into handicap & non-handicap

races gives us:
• Non-handicaps – 18 winners from 42 runners 43% -0.95 A/E

0.95 34 placed 81%.
• Handicaps – 16 winners from 62 runners 26% -4.86 A/E

0.88 37 placed 60%.
General Stats - Flat
Odds SP: 12/1 & above. 17 winners from 524 runners 3% -167
A/E 0.68 52 placed 10%.
General Stats – National Hunt
35 winners from 1834 runners 2% -1173 A/E .47 183 placed

10%.
Summary: On the flat and even more so over jumps horses

relatively well fancied by the market, horses that are 12/1
& under dominate. The odd big priced winner does pop up
occasionally, but they are few and far between and it’s not a
pool a punter should be fishing in for potential winners.
Trainers to Note
Given there is more national hunt racing than flat I have
concentrated on the jumps racing for a trainer whose runners
are worth following at Down Royal. The standout jumps trainer
stats wise is Henry De Bromhead.

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Henry De Bromhead
One in four of his runners at the track have won in the past five
years but even more importantly his runners are performing
31% better than market expectations.
That record improves if we just look at his runners having their

first run at the course.
14 winners from 44 runners 32% +41.76 A/E 1.58 21 placed

48%.
System: Back Henry De Bromheads runners at Down Royal

when having their first run at the track.

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Edward Lynam
From a much smaller sample size it may be worth noting any
Edward Lynam trained runners racing on the flat over 5f. But
apart from him there are no standout flat trainers on the stats
front.
System: Back Edward Lynam’s 5f flat runners at Down Royal.
This one course does not produce many selections each year
and would be considered as micro-systems on their own as is.
Adding more tracks of course….

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Odds Profiling
In finding our selections, irrespective of the sport, we are
essentially looking for patterns, in horse racing this is either
from reading the form, through the use of stats or a combination
of both. Profiling a race (or any sport) just by looking at the
odds is not something you will find much if any information
about.
Whilst researching the finishing position of horses in races

compared to how the odds said they should have finished
revealed certain patterns, that eventually led to looking at
finding selections based on the Betfair Starting Price of the
favourite and the historic results of races with the same
composition of certain factors. This is very much experimental
but the testing done so far is extremely encouraging.
The Betfair Exchange is a sharp bookmaker. A sharp

bookmaker works to a tight mathematical model. Betfair is a
100% book with no margin. They don’t ban winning players
meaning astute/sharp bettors will bet there. This means that
in the minutes leading up to the start of a race the odds move
rapidly according to the changing situation. Any major event
that could affect the outcome is taken into account. The odds
change quickly, to show the true situation at the current time.
WISDOM OF CROWDS THEORY

There is a theory that bigger crowds make better decisions. The
idea is that everyone in the group brings their own knowledge
and experience. We can see how this works on websites such
as Wikipedia.
Charles Darwin’s cousin Francis Galton made one of the first

reported comments on this subject. At the start of the 20th
century, he viewed a competition to guess the weight of an ox.
Galton noted that the average answer in the competition was
incredibly precise. The crowd’s collective opinion was more
accurate than that of the experts.

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Therefore, it is suggested that a big, diverse crowd is even

better than a small group of experts. This applies whether you
are trying to guess the weight of an ox or the odds for a race.
The overall opinion or answer from the group is usually right. It
is also usually better than that given by each of the individuals.
How does this work on the Betfair exchange? Quite simply, they
pull together the opinions of their users. Thousands of users
placing bets in a single market leads to fair odds that accurately
reflect the possibility of certain outcomes.
This simple yet highly effective theory is at the heart of the

Betfair model. The odds are fair and efficient because of the
wisdom of the crowd. There is no team of experts in an office
deciding what odds to use.
The Betfair Starting Price (BSP) is worked out when the market
is suspended. This is when the match, race or event starts.
So this is the final price before the action begins in earnest.
The BSP odds are then worked out by balancing all of the bets
made on there.
The exact figure comes from matching SP backers against SP

layers.
In this way, you get an incredibly accurate starting price. These

odds take into account all of the relevant bets that have been
made in the build-up. This works out to give a price that is
highly efficient. What this tells us is the true value of a bet at the
start. The BSP is the collective opinion of everyone involved
when betting closes. In theory, it should be the most accurate
odds possible. Betfair has looked at all of the SP bets from
everyone and calculated the exact odds from that.
From the database we know that in the UK the race favorite

wins about 35% of all races:

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The second favourite wins about 20% of the time:
And the third horse in the betting wins about 14% of the time:
From this we find that the top three horses in the betting win
roughly 69% to 70% of all races. But backing them blindly will
not win you any money.
Is there a pattern to when the crowd gets it right or wrong?
Here we use historic results of the winners and losers BSP

odds to find races in which to bet, We then have to decide how
to best bet them.
With odds profiling there is no form reading whatsoever, that is

already taken into account in the BSP price. As we are taking
BSP odds we know we are getting at least fair value. We only
look at the race taking into account three common race factors:
The race type
Distance
Number of actual horses starting in the race (excluding non-

runners and withdrawn horses).
This is then matched to all the previous races run at the race
course (we want at least 10 instances, the more the merrier). All
matching races are then displayed in a spreadsheet grid along
with the BSP of the favourite, the BSP of the historic winner and
the winners order in the betting.
We use this information to show whether we expect a favourite

(first 2 in the betting) or an outsider to prevail in the race, and
to see whether current BSP indicates market’s support of a
selection or lack thereof.

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The BSP of the Winner is used to show if we could confidently

Lay/Hedge at BSP.
An example race is shown below:

Lingfield 12-Jan-2019
Lingfield LADBROKES HOME OF THE ODDS BOOST
12:50 FILLIES' HANDICAP (5)
Distance: 1m 1y
DB BSP of BSP of Winners Race Distance Runners
Matches Fav Winner Order Type
in the
Betting
1 3.9 3.57 2 H'cap 1m 7
2 3.87 10.00 4 H'cap 1m 7
3 3.80 6.40 3 H'cap 1m 7
4 3.53 3.53 1 H'cap 1m 7
5 3.45 13.67 6 H'cap 1m 7
6 3.43 7.40 4 H'cap 1m 7
7 3.41 6.75 4 H'cap 1m 7
8 3.35 5.01 2 H'cap 1m 7
9 3.20 3.20 1 H'cap 1m 7
10 2.94 2.94 1 H'cap 1m 7
11 2.86 2.89 1 H'cap 1m 7
12 2.85 2.85 1 H'cap 1m 7
13 2.80 8.63 4 H'cap 1m 7
14 2.47 2.47 1 H'cap 1m 7
15 2.40 6.27 3 H'cap 1m 7
Created using Betfair data
The above race was for the 12:50 at Lingfield. There have been
fifteen races at Lingfield matching our criteria (Handicap race of
1 mile with 7 runners) in the database.
The actual race would not normally be considered as “ideal”

due to the favourites and outsiders being mixed throughout the
odds ranges.
The first and second favourites are highlighted in yellow

and all others in blue to make it visually easier to see. Third
favourites are coloured blue for an outsider, but are always to
be noted due to their winning percentage. We monitor the BSP

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projected starting price of the favourite on Betfair in the

few minutes before the race and match it to the BSP of Fav
price in the grid.
We want the BSP price of the favourite to fall between either

two blue rows or two yellow rows to indicate a bet. An ideal
BSP pricel here would be about 2.94 (row 10).
If the Fav. BSP was indicated to be 3.89 it would be between

Rows 1 and 2 therefore no bet.
If the Fav. BSP was indicated to be 3.43 it would be between

Rows 5 and 7 therefore a bet,
In this case we would back the fourth to sixth horses in the

betting (or all except the Favourites).
For this race the Fav. BSP was around 2.92 (Rows 10 and
11) indicating the favourite was the most likely winner. The bet
would therefore be to back the first and second favourites.
The BSP indicates that the market is favouring the horses

at the front of the market to win and at that price the historic
record indicates that at that price they generally get it correct.
Confidence in this prediction is given by the price being
surrounded by quite a few “yellow” rows to either side.
The result was the second favourite won, the favourite was 2nd
and 4th favourite 3rd:

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The results for similar races at Lingfield since the initial profile
was done are:
DATE Course Race BSP BSP Win- Num- Bet Result
of of ners ber
Fav Winner Order of
in the Run-
Bet- ners
ting
Friday Lingfield 12:55 3.05 20.17 5 7 1& Lost
18 January 2
2019
Saturday Lingfield 16:20 4.84 4.84 1 7 NB
31 August
2019
Tuesday Lingfield 12:35 2.49 4.9 2 7 NB
31 December
2019
Tuesday Lingfield 13.05 3.2 4.1 2 7 1& Won
31 December 2
2019
Saturday 18 Lingfield 13:35 2.99 28.89 7 7 NB
January 2020
Friday Lingfield 13:10 2.43 4.37 2 7 NB
31 January
2020
Saturday Lingfield 13:45 2.88 4.86 2 7 1& Won
08 February 2
2020
Saturday Lingfield 14:20 3.93 6.2 3 7 NB
08 February
2020
Gathering the data takes time, you also have to take into
account non runners and withdrawals so would need a new
grid each time, but in reality no longer than reading the form
properly. If the data is saved in a database, once initially
collected it would just need updating at the end of the day.
The actual data itself is available from Betfair at https://promo.

betfair.com/betfairsp/prices
Each day’s results are available for downloading. The drawback

is that it doesn’t readily show the winners position in the odds
order (plus missing and even wrong data!).

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Betfair CSV data example
Learnt my lesson, for myself, I now use

https://www.horseracebase.com/
For this example we look at the Lingfield race above. On

Saturday the 8th of February last the first two races at Lingfield
had the following criteria of a 1 mile handicap with 7 runners.
Once we log into Horseracebase and go to the system builder

page.
This brings us to the Control Panel page.
Here we click the “ADD” button along the top row.

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All the criteria we need is in the top Race Data section. Track,
Race Data (Tick), No. of Runners, Handicap /Non and Date
(Year).
We tick these then scroll to the bottom of the page and click the
proceed button.
The race distance is 1 mile and here we could have used the
“Race Distance” tick box instead of “Race Distance (Tick)”, but
occasionally the distance will not be an exact match and will fall
between two distances and we would use the distances either
side of it.

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The “Date (Year)” is used to specify how far back in time

we want our data from, for Odds Profiling we would want a
minimum of 5 races, more is better but, we do not want to go
too far back. I would go back 2 years at most but if enough data
is available from 1 year it is fine. We will use the data from the
start of 2018 to ensure enough races are covered.
Once we hit Proceed we come to a page displaying our options

based on our race criteria.

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Here we tick the boxes covering our needs and click “Go” at the
bottom.
The page that comes up next shows an overview of our

previous selections and a “Performance Report”. The report
shows we have 14 winners (which is all we need it for here) and
therefore we have 14 qualifying races for our odds data.
We need to know what those races were and so we click on the

“Quals” button to get:
This is the results of all the runners in all the races.
We can get our data directly off this page but I find it easier to
use the download option and view it in a spreadsheet.
The data can be downloaded in either an XLS or CSV file.

Download the version you need for your spreadsheet and

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open it. I use CSV as it is easily portable between different

spreadsheet and database programs.
Once downloaded open it in your spreadsheet program.
We are not interested in the results of the first two races, run
on the 08/02/2020, as these are the 2 races we want to find
bets for, so we ignore those,the first race we need is on the
31/01/2020.
The data we need is in Columns F and H, highlighted below.
From the selected race, we need the BSP Favorites odds in

cells F16 to F22. This is 2.43.
Cell H16 indicates the race winner (1) and Cell F16 its odds
of 4.37, these are the second lowest of the selected race (2nd
Favourite) so the horses position in the betting order was 2.
Creating a new sheet we put this information in as below.

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First race done, we now need to rinse and repeat for all the
other races.
The filled in sheet, the odds sorted by BSP of Fav (Column B)

and the format tidied up:
For the first race on the 8th Feb 2020 the BSP odds of the
favourite were 2.88 looking these up in the grid above shows
they fall between matches 8 and 9 indicating the race would
most likely be won by the favourite or 2nd favourite.
Looking at the results of the 12 races above shows that this

type of race at Lingfield is mainly won by:
The Favourite = 4 times

2nd Favourite = 4 times
3rd Favourite = 2 times
The top two in the betting cover 66% of results
The top three in the betting cover 83%, much better!
The decision is on whether the race profile shown is worth

betting on and if so how best to stake it.
There are various ways to stake this, from straight betting the
Top 2 in the betting, dutching them (or Top 3), Top 2 adding a
safety bet on 3rd fav.
My staking has been a straight bet to win a certain amount on

the top three in the betting. You could also dutch bet the Top 3
at BSP on the Exchange. You could also use a regular sports
book and fixed odds just needing the BSP figure from Betfair.

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The race was won by the 2nd Fav. @ 4.86 BSP
2nd was the 3rd Fav. @ 6.5 BSP
3rd was the Fav. @ 2.88 BSP
We can now add this result to the grid to get:
Our 2nd race at Lingfield is the 14.20 with the BSP of the
Fav. at 3.93 looking these up in the grid above shows they fall
between matches 1 and 2 again, indicating the race would most
likely be won by the favourite or 2nd favourite. Staking similar
to the earlier race.
The race was won by the 3rd Fav. @ 6.2 BSP

2nd was the 2nd Fav. @ 5.07 BSP
3rd was the 4th Fav. @ 7.48 BSP
The Fav. finished last. @ 3.93 BSP
Odds profiling is a very useful tool and so far in my testing quite

profitable.
It doesn’t work on every race tested so far (nothing ever will of

course!), some grids are quite messy, but learning which races
to avoid is just as important as which ones to play.
Due to the Covid 19 outbreak testing has been curtailed but, on

the plus side, has given me access to a few university students
(who no longer have jobs to supplement their grants and lots of
free time) to assist in getting all the data needed to fully test it
once racing in the UK starts up again.

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To Trade Or Not To Trade?

(That Is The Question)
To learn how to handicap and then to apply its techniques

race after race takes time. Does any handicapper work out
their hourly rate? Studying form takes hours, especially when
developing a new strategy. This is not a “Hands-On” guide
as that would need a book (or books) in itself but more of an
overview.
Why Trade?
Now that exchanges allow you to take either side of a bet,
betting has changed irrevocably. In the past a bettor was
always looking for value, to find a horse that would consistently
win in the long run and beat the bookmaker’s overround.
Today, Betfair has brought the overround down to near 100%

so that is no longer a hurdle. With just a small commission to
worry about, all a bettor has to do is determine if a price is too
high or too low.
Because opinion is always open to change so too is the price

on a horse, in the lead up to a race. And because you can take
either side of the bet, a betting exchange is no different to a
stock exchange. Bets on horses can be traded in exactly the
same way as a bet on the price of a stock going up or down.
Let’s be honest here. Stock markets, derivatives exchanges,

forex markets, metal exchanges, commodities markets, they
are all betting exchanges. Trillions of pounds are wagered on
the price of something going up, down or standing still.
There are many kinds of players in the financial markets. There

are hedgers protecting pension funds and claims against
insurance payouts. There are investors oiling the wheels
of commerce whilst hoping for a return on their investment.
However, the vast majority of trades in all of these financial
markets are speculative, meaning that they are bets. When you

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realise that a financial market is a betting market then you will

understand that a betting market can be traded like a financial
market.
Fundamentalists and Technicians

Two terms you will hear in financial trading are fundamental
trading and technical trading. A fundamental trader pores
over company reports, government and central bank
announcements, trade deals etc. to determine a fair price for
a trade. Does that sound familiar? Yes, a handicapper is a
fundamental trader, looking for a value stock (a horse) with a
buy and hold strategy (back the horse and hope it wins).
A technical trader is one who looks at prices. The trader may or

may not have a basic fundamental view too (e.g. will the Bank
of England stop quantitative easing and how will that affect the
stock market or the pound?) but it’s the price and its movement
that counts, the rest is just icing on the cake.
Some technical traders don’t even look at fundamental

data. They are just looking at price moves and using market
psychology to determine when to enter and exit a trade.
Personally, whilst I am a fundamental trader when trading on

tennis (my main trading interest), I am a bit of both when it
comes to horse racing. A price chart encapsulates all public
information and the current sentiment of all the traders. I (or a
bot algorithm) can look at a chart and make an instant decision
whether to trade or not.
How to Trade?
We have all heard of ‘Buy low and sell high’ but what does that
mean exactly? Obviously, if you lay a horse and then the price
drops you cannot possibly sell high and you are going to lose
money.

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Market timing is the key and you need to time your trades
based on a trading rule. A trading rule will have an entry and an
exit. The entry might be based on a piece of fundamental and/
or technical data that has been tested and proven to signal a
mispricing that will either correct itself or is of value (as in a buy
and hold strategy). The exit part of a trading rule determines
when to take a profit or limit a loss.
Building trading rules, as with handicapping, requires data and

statistical analysis. If you can handicap successfully then you
have all the skills to statistically analyse any data for patterns.
Something simple like an Excel spreadsheet with graphs can
show the shifting patterns of price movements. I have been
using Excel to observe price charts in betting markets for many
years and have created simple but profitable trading rules.
Types Of Trade
There are many ways to trade on an exchange and we shall
cover a few here:
Arbitrage Trading
In the financial world arbitrage comes in many flavours but in

sports betting there are three main types.
1) Pure arbitrage
In pure arbitrage you are looking for a price mismatch giving

you an instantly underround book. Example: An exchange has
priced a tennis match odds as follows:
Player A 1.72
Player B 2.30
With an overround of 1.01
Another exchange has priced the same match as follows:
Player A 1.68
Player B 2.42

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With an overround of just under 1.01
By taking the best bets from each exchange an arbitrageur can

create their own book
Player A 1.72
Player B 2.42
With an overround less than 1.00
The arbitrageur would then bet a sum proportional to the

reciprocal of the odds on both players to guarantee a 1 unit
win. As the sum of the reciprocals is less than 1 then a profit is
guaranteed.
Such occurrences are very fleeting, quickly snapped up and will

incur profit eating commissions if done through exchanges so
beware. However, there is a way of improving the profitability of
these bets, which is discussed a little later.
2) Statistical arbitrage
A ‘stat arb’ is essentially a value bet in old betting terminology.

As a fundamental trader you will have determined that a price is
too high and backable or too low and layable. What you do after
that is a matter of choice.
Statistically, if a horse’s win rate is greater than the odds suggest

then you might let the bet ride. Alternatively, if the market has
overpriced a horse and the price lowers then you can hedge and
regardless of who wins, you have locked in a profit.
Only through a large back-testing exercise can you determine if

letting bets ride or hedging is more profitable.
3) Exchange/Bookmaker arbitrage
Here we take advantage of differences in market structure

between exchanges and bookmakers. Maybe a bookmaker
has an offer of free bets, bonuses or money back that can be
hedged against with another bookmaker or exchange.

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Even if the odds of a tennis match don’t provide an underround

book as with a pure arb, the bookmaker’s offer might just create
enough of an edge to create an underround book.
A bookmaker might offer to double any initial deposit you put

into a new account up to £100 with at least five bets being
made before the bonus is given. To make a profit all you have
to do is bet your deposit five times and make sure you have
some left over after five bets. That sum is your profit as you will
get your initial deposit returned. There are many such similar
offers that can be arbitraged against.
Example: You see a tennis match where an exchange prices

the match odds as
Player A 1.72
Player B 2.30
for an overround of 101%.
The bookmaker giving the offer prices the same tennis match
as
Player A 1.69 Player

B 2.36
for an overround also of 100%
Even taking the best bets from both gives us an overround

book:
Player A 1.72
Player B 2.36
However, by making use of the bookmaker offer we can back

a player with the bookmaker and lay the same player on the
exchange. We will be making a small loss but once we have
made our five bets we will be more than compensated by the
bonus.
With each bet we just have to ensure that we lose as little as

possible. In the example above if our five bets lose us £10 each
time then we still make £50 profit because the deposit bonus is
£100.

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Sports arbitrage is getting harder to achieve and is not that

profitable after you have taken deposit bonuses off a few
bookmakers so most sports trading, as in the financial world, is
speculative.
Speculative Trading
In speculative trading there is no instant profit to be made. You
have to take a position and hope that the market moves in the
direction you expect it to.
Typically, you will set a figure for profit taking and a stop loss
limit on your trade. This might be to close out for a one tick
loss if the trade goes against you or to take a 5% profit if you
win. A more advanced profit taking exercise might be closing
out half your trade at 5% and leaving the rest to maybe get a
higher profit percentage or close it out for 2.5% profit if there is
a reversal.
You will have carried out a back-test of past data to see which
are the best limits to put on your exit trade.
1) Scalping
This is a contentious form of trading and not for the light-

hearted. Essentially, you are trying to get to the head of the
queue just as a runner’s price is showing signs of making a
move with carry through momentum.
Whether this is a real skill or not is hard to say. Many scalpers

can only be made to say, ‘I had a feeling it would move’ but
logic is never there to back up the statement. Many scalper
blogs are here today and gone tomorrow. Make of that what
you will.
In scalping you are attempting to get your trade in first so that

when other scalpers of varying degrees of ability enter the
market they create the self-fulfilling prophecy of momentum,
carrying the price further up or down. The more skilled scalpers

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who placed their trades first can then close out their trade while
the latecomers close out for little or no profit depending on how
fast they entered their trade.
The problem I have with this kind of trading is that it is usually

for a tick or two and is performed multiple times as the price
trends in one direction or another. Such trading begs the
question, ‘Why not leave your money in until you think the price
will go no further?’
2) Trend Trading
‘The trend is your friend’, a common refrain in financial markets.

It is also true in sports betting markets.
I have spoken before about market efficiency and how

accurately prices represent their true value long-term. However,
prices don’t change instantaneously as new information enters
a market. Prices take time to move. The price on a runner
moves and the overround forces the prices of other runners
to move too otherwise an arbitrage will be created by an
underround book.
Have a look at the charts below and try not to see trends in
them. These trends happen every day. Of course, the trend is
not a straight line, there is noise. But this is the kind of noise
that spooks a scalper running his trading software with an
update rate of one second. At a slower rate, trends become
more evident.
Why bother scalping for a tick when you can make far more by
trend trading?

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Of course, there is a lot more to trend trading. Cover up half

or more of each of the charts below and a trend is not so
apparent. The key is to use more advanced technical analysis
to determine the onset of a trend, which leads us to charting.
3) Charting
I wouldn’t recommend anyone trying to trade using Betfair

charts for two reasons. Betfair’s charts are non-linear and not
tick by tick or second by second. These charts are aggregated
with most of the chart showing the last few minutes before the
start of the race because that is when most volume is traded.
Also, there is a time lag so the charts do not represent an up to
the minute view.
Most third-party trading software has charting facilities, which

any financial trader would understand. Indeed, all the chart
functions in third-party software are from the financial world.
However, many of these functions are not suitable for sports
trading. I understand Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength
Indicator, but I can’t imagine using them in sports trading.
As a chart builds up through the addition of data points we

might begin to see resistance points where the price won’t go
higher or support points where the price won’t go any lower. A
price oscillating in a channel between resistance and support
can offer trading opportunities for spread trading and a breakout
above or below the channel can signal a new trend to trade on.
A newcomer to trading software can feel bewildered when they
first see the prices flashing at them. Newcomers immediately
get trapped into whatever default the software is set to and
attempt to trade with disastrous consequences.
Reading up on how financial traders tackle trending markets

would be a good thing to do. Of course, not all of what they
write is going to be pertinent to sports trading. It is for you to
filter out that which is useful to you. Certainly, reading up on
options trading is going to be a waste of your time but not so
with futures trading commodities.

Horse Racing Bible
As with pure fundamental trading, technical trading is hard

to grasp at first but once you do your time will be more
productively used in building your wealth. You switch on your
computer in the morning and without a single look at Timeform
or the Racing Post, you are trading.
Is Trading For You?

Just as some people are no good at fundamental trading, so
too there are people unsuited to technical trading.
There is a psychological aspect to technical trading that

prevents people from being profitable. The ability to let go of a
trade, take a small loss and come back in the next trade and
win is an important one. More often than not losing traders will
sit on a bad trade in the hope that it will reverse and the trade
will return to profit. A trade that goes the other way does so for
a reason, the market has decided upon a price reversal and
you are on the wrong side of it.
Bad traders will also let a bad loss affect their next trade as
they try to over-trade to recover the loss of the previous trade in
addition to winning the new trade. This is not possible and more
often than not such a trader loses again, compounding their
loss.
Every trade has to be forgotten the moment you exit from it, be
it for a small loss or an ego boosting big win. All that matters is
the weekly profit and loss column, which is calculated only at
the end of the week so that a single dip does not play on the
mind.
Trades are to be impassionate and without hind-sight. If you

could have won more or lost less after you have closed out
then that is of no consequence to you so long as you followed
your exit rule correctly. Remember you are trying to gain wealth
in the long-run and not in one trade. Your trading rules were
created with the long-run in mind and so should your trading
with those rules.

Horse Racing Bible
Of course, you will have some losing trades, everyone does.

But every completed trade is in the past and there is nothing
you can do about it. There is to be no chasing of losses. No
Martingales or other such mumbo jumbo to win back all that you
have lost.
There is probably something in trading for everyone. Even if

it is old school value hunting. Try using charts and gaining an
understanding of how markets work and it will probably improve
your betting.
One of the first types of trades people try on the exchange is

Backing and Laying.
Being able to predict price movement is a strategy that

potentially would make you rich very quickly. For example
let me create a hypothetical scenario whereby you are able
to predict 5 horses each day that would ALWAYS contract
(shorten) in price. Let us also assume for simplicity of this
example that they were all originally priced 7/1 (8.0) and
shortened into 4/1 (5.0) at the off.
There are various ways you may profit from this amazing ability
to see into the future.
1. One option is to simply back all horses at 7/1 and you

would make a profit in the long term. On average 4/1 shots
win between 17 and 18% of the time so if you were getting
7/1 about a 4/1 shot you would make a return on investment
(ROI) to SP of around 40% over the longer term. One thing to
be aware here is that you could have some long losing runs
despite the long term outlook being extremely favourable.
2. Create effectively a free bet by betting on the exchanges -

back at 8.00 and lay at 5.00 for effectively a free bet at 3/1.
With this bet there is no risk - no losing runs as you either break
even if the horse loses or effectively have a 3/1 winner if the
horse wins (minus commission).
3. Traders potentially could use a third option by looking to lock

in a profit each race.

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To explain the method it is easier to use decimal odds for this.
They could potentially stake 1 point at the decimal odds of

8.00. To work out the lay stake required you would divide your
backing price by your laying price – in this case 8/5 which
equates to 1.60. Your lay stake then becomes 1.60. The locked
in profit is the difference between both stakes (1.60 – 1.00) or
0.60.
Using this method the result of the race is irrelevant; you simply
make a small profit on each race. Therefore having that ‘gift’
to accurately predict the movement of 5 horses per day would
essentially be a license to print money. If only betting was that
simple..
For the rest of this article I am going to see whether it is

possible to improve our chances of predicting price movement
from the opening show price (normally about 10 minutes before
the start) and the final starting price.
I have looked at data going back to 2016 for UK racing and not
surprisingly given my previous sentence, my first port of call
was to compare the opening show price with the SP (Industry
Starting Price).
Now prices can do three things – shorten, stay the same or drift
out (lengthen).
Let us compare the percentage of runners that shorten, stay

the same price and lengthen in the three main types of racing
namely flat (turf), the all-weather and National Hunt.

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As you might have expected there are more horses that shorten
in price than drift and lengthen in price.
Indeed if you focus on the front end of the market the

percentage for horses that shorten in price gets higher. This
makes sense as the bookmakers are trying to improve their
profit margins.
The data for the all-weather is the most ‘level’ in terms of

percentages and hence I would like to explore all weather
racing in more detail in relation to market movement.
My angle is to look at trainers to see if there are any patterns,

stats or clues that have the potential to help us with our price
movement predictions.
For example are there trainers whose horses shorten rather

than drift or vice versa. Can we find a trainer where their horses
always shorten by three points!!!!
Just kidding.
OK so let us look at the top 30 trainers in terms of all weather

runners since 2016 and compare their percentages:

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The first thing that stands out for me is Sir Mark Prescott’s
figures as considerably more of his horses drift out in price than
come in (42.78% v 27.29%).
Interestingly you would have made a small profit backing

Prescott drifters (around 10% using Betfair SP if simply backing
every qualifier).
These results would have been improved further by not backing

outsiders (horses priced 22/1 or bigger) as they provided
57 losers from 57 runners. Of course trying to use any strategy
that involves using opening odds and comparing them to SP
odds is potentially difficult to do as we never know the final SP

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odds. However, we can have a pretty good idea if we can bet

live and late.
Let us assume that you have pinpointed a Prescott horse (or

indeed any horse) that you think is going to lengthen in price.
It makes sense to have at least three ‘windows’ open on your
computer – the live odds from a major bookmaker, the Betfair
screen, and live race pictures.
Doing that will make this type of idea possible to implement.

The opening odds are easy to check; you may want to have
another window open with another bookmaker’s odds just to
double check prices
So you have your opening odds ……… depending on your

approach you may simply wait and back the horse should it
drifts. If it drifts then you can bet the horse as late as possible
on Betfair by keeping an eye on the live feed, or back it at
Betfair SP just before the off
The better method however is almost certainly the third method/

option I mentioned at the start of this article – creating a back
and lay scenario that locks in a profit regardless of result.
This time though you are laying first and backing second.
If you were doing this I would suggest you use trading software
where you can simply press a button to ‘green up’.
Greening up simply means have a positive return on either

outcome as in method 3. Alternatively have an arbing calculator
on screen to do that for you.
Of course any strategy involving predicting price movement has

its risks – the price could move in the opposite direction to the
one you had expected giving you a potential negative scenario.
Going back to Prescott - even his shorter priced runners do

buck the overall trend.
All horses for all trainers that opened 4.00 or shorter during the
period of study shortened 42% of the time while 36.5% of them
drifted; for Prescott 36% shortened and 43.5% drifted

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Interestingly of the 50 Prescott horses that drifted and still

started clear favourites, they went onto win 50% of the time (25
wins) – simply spotting these opportunities and backing them
as late as possible would have potentially created a profitable
scenario. In this instance, using method one (simply backing
them at Betfair SP) would have secured a profit of 32p for every
£1 staked.
However, from a personal perspective, and I am guessing most

traders would agree, I would prefer a back to lay strategy rather
than a lay to back strategy
Therefore it is worth looking for trainers whose horses shorten

more often than they drift
Below is a table of trainers whose horses shorten more than

the average. I have created a ‘shorten to drift’ ratio (SDR)
by dividing their percentage of horses that shorten by their
percentage of horses that drift or lengthen in price
For trainers to qualify they must have had at least 130 runners
in total over the four years:

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Bowring tops the list in terms of SDR with horses shortening in

price more than twice as often as those that drift.
Of the 78 runners that have shortened though only 9 went on

to win so if you had pinpointed one of his runners you thought
would shorten in price, then the trading option is by far the best
approach.
Interestingly one of his seasoned campaigners – a horse called

Ace Master has shortened in price 10 times in 12 runs (1 time
it drifted, the other it remained the same price). Indeed looking
back to all his runs (flat and AW) going back to 2012 Ace
Master’s price has shortened 40 times, stayed the same 16
times and drifted just 11.

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Newmarket trainer James Fanshawe also has a high SDR at

1.89 and has sent out a decent number of runners on the all-
weather (460) in the last four seasons.
What I found most interesting was that there seems to be

a correlation with the percentage of horses that shorten in
price (opening odds to SP) with the time taken to travel to the
relevant course.
The following table hopefully will make this clearer:
It seems that the further Fanshawe’s horses travel the more

likely they are to shorten in price.
For the record the travelling times are an estimate based on the
route, distance travelled and the fact they will be travelling in a
horsebox / lorry. However, I think they are pretty accurate.
The trip to Newcastle is essentially a 500 mile round trip and I

am wondering if punters have picked up on this and hence are
more likely to back the horse as not only have they noted the
long trip, but it comes from a decent Newmarket stable as well.
The Wolverhampton trip is not as long but it is still around 120 –

135 miles depending on the route taken. With 59 and 60% of
his runners shortening in price at the two venues this may be an
angle to try and take advantage of.

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Tom Dascombe is another trainer with a decent SDR at 1.67

and he too has run a decent number of horses on the all-
weather in the last four years (522). 44.4% of his horses have
shortened in price and this figure increases to 53.5% (54 horses
from 101 runners) when focusing on horses whose price is 3/1
or shorter at the opening show.
If we focus solely on the regular jockey Richard Kingscote on

these horses priced 3/1 or shorter at the opening show, the
percentage figure increases further to 57.9% (44 horses from
76 runners).
Of course many punters want a relatively simple method to

follow in the hope of making money. The final set of data I will
share with you is of the profitable trainers on the all-weather
when their horses have been backed in from their opening
show price.
With the price falling, one would expect the value to be draining
away and profits difficult to achieve, but some trainers have still
managed to achieve a profit at Betfair SP with such runners.
Here is a table with the relevant facts and figures:

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All the trainers have decent strike rates (all above 20%), and on
the whole good A/E values too.
It will be interesting to see if these trainers continue to be as

successful / profitable with horses that shorten in price over the
coming months and years.
This is an area of research that really interests me and although

I have only scratched the surface I hope that it has given you
food for thought.

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Other Stuff
Value
In betting, value is everything and everything is value.
Indeed, our lives are built on value. We place a “value” on
ourselves, our time, and the lives of others. In Marxist ideology
we find the principle of an “exchange value” placed upon
things which people have to offer: job-specific skills in an
employment context, for example. I propose that the fourth
fundamental truth about betting goes something like this:
What happens on the racetrack only matters indirectly.
What really matters is the prism of the betting market.
The market is a far, far more potent predictor of racehorse
performance than any system devised by individual gamblers
with their neural networks and ram-laden computers. This is

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because the market benefits from a process outlined by James

Surowiecki in his 2005 book The Wisdom Of Crowds (Abacus):
namely, the aggregation of information by groups and the
resulting superiority of collective decisions over those made by
individual members of that group. In a pop-science experiment
broadcast as part of the recent BBC series The Code, amiable
mathematician Marcus Du Sautoy asked 160 people to guess
the number of jellybeans in a copious glass jar. Their individual
estimates were wildly inaccurate in both directions, ranging from
several hundred to many tens of thousands (the actual number
was 4,510). Then Du Sautoy produced his trusty calculator
and began calculating the mean average of the predictions.
With televisual panache he gasped as the answer popped up:
4,514.90 beans – just 4.90 beans out. Something similar is
happening in the betting market which, via the machinations of
Oddschecker and Betfair, has become like some sort of vast
collective unconscious.
When it comes to predicting racing performance, the general

superiority of the betting market over the methods of individuals
isn’t hard to fathom. Even a suite of the most advanced neural
networks operated by an expert accounts for a limited number
of variables and has far less computational power than a single
human brain, let alone three million brains. The attempt to
develop a system which outperforms the betting market across
the board in its predictions of racehorse performance is a holy
grail for the mathematically minded. I would assess the chances
for success as being broadly in line with those of the zealots
who quested for the actual cup of Christ. What such systems do
achieve is to identify very minimal inefficiencies in the market
which can be exploited for profit (which is not the same thing as
“outperforming” the market).
It is important to bear in mind that, while the betting market

is a good predictor of performance, it is in no way a literal
representation of each animal’s “chances” of victory. Horse
races are so intrinsically chaotic that any attempt to accurately
predict the true probabilities is almost certainly futile. Rather
than a literal assessment of probability, the market is a model of

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the collective views of the betting public. Frequently, the prices

on offer say more about the punting masses, their prejudices,
and their antagonistic relationship with bookmakers than they
do about the horses in the race. Even so, the market is our
theatre of operations. So our focus switches from “what
is going to win?” to “what is going to win me money?” This
perspective compels us to take a long-term view. If we want
to win money in a single race then the right horse to back is
nearly always the favourite. If we want to win money over a
season then the right horse to back is never the favourite. We
are dealing with animals which are undervalued by the betting
market and which will, due to the law of large numbers, make
up to a profit over many bets.
In fact, the law of large numbers tells us that, the longer

we bet for, the more likely we are to be in profit (assuming
nothing changes to reduce the profitability of our selections).
Let’s say we are backing a horse at 8/1 that we feel has been
undervalued. While impossible to know the true odds, let us
place a notional value on them of 5/1. In this example we are
virtually guaranteed to make money in the long term if we
make identical selections. Yet our prospects of success in this
race are slim, around 17%. This has brought us to one of my
fundamental truths of betting – to win we must take a long-
term view.
What is value then?

By now we have prepared the ground sufficiently to permit a
definition of value: value is a series of bets in profit. In
other words, if we have made a profit over time then our bets
represented value, if we haven’t then they didn’t. What I am
saying is that value can only be assessed retrospectively and
only in the long term. We might feel an individual bet is “value”
because it will eventually form part of a series of profitable bets,
but we will only know with hindsight whether or not we have
beaten the market over time. Nevertheless, our assessment
of potential value on a bet-by-bet basis is what leads us to

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that long-term profit. Perceived value is entirely a matter of

perspective. For example, you approach racing from a pedigree
angle then you will esteem value in a bet that a speed-ratings
expert will not.
The question in your head should be: at what price would I

back this horse? Let’s say there were 3/1 joint favourites in a
race and I was sweet on one of them. If you asked me whether
I’d back the other one, my answer would probably be “no”. You
might persist and say, “what about if I offered you 4/1?”. Now
I would have a decision to make, but the answer would still be
no. Then you might up the ante: “what if I offered you 6s?” If
I refused your new offer I’d be an idiot. But that’s how many
punters think – they wouldn’t want to be on the “other one” at
any price. The principle at stake is this one: if you were short of
cash and I said “do you wanna buy a new Mercedes?” you’d tell
me to jog on, and then jog on some more. But if I said “you can
have it for a grand in the hand”, you’d probably rip my arm off
whether you were broke or not. That’s value.
How to obtain value?

Profitable systems generally identify favourably priced runners
that are overlooked by the betting public. Hence, part of the
logic to such systems is that they select horses which appear
to be poor bets from a conventional point of view. As the odds
that you will be able to obtain about a selection depend on the
betting public’s opinion, backing fancied horses will drastically
reduce your ability to show a profit. Contrastingly, if you can lay
horses that are given too much respect by the punting masses
then you might profit from their collective misapprehensions.
What this means is that profitable systems are never simply
about conventional selection criteria such as form or ratings,
but the ways in which that information is processed by other
gamblers.
If you think your system is built around speed – it isn’t – it’s built
around limitations or flaws in others’ knowledge of speed. If you

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think your system is built around pedigrees – it isn’t – it’s built

around limitations or flaws in others’ knowledge of pedigrees.
That’s another feature of the systems pedalled by shysters and
conmen – they’re just a stack of obvious criteria: back last-
time-out winners, returning to the racecourse after less than 30
days, at single figure odds, trained by a handler with a winning
record at the racecourse in question, placed on the same going
before... That’s just like bringing sand to the beach.
An interesting property of the betting market is its reflexivity,

which in the mathematical sense means that it influences itself.
What I am trying to say is that punters form judgements about
runners based solely on the price, so people support hot favs
simply because they’re hot favs – even before they have looked
at the horse’s credentials. At the other end of the scale, there
are gamblers who back an outsider because it will provide them
with a big return if it wins. This partly explains the common
misnomer that “value” refers merely to the size of the price on
offer. We hear racing commentators routinely observing that
any given horse with odds above 10-1 has a “value price”.
In short, there is a whole generation of people working in the
racing media who have confused the concept of value with that
of outsiders.
Should we forget about winners in our search for value? I will

confess my take used to mirror the stock view expressed by
Barry Meadow in Money Secrets at the Racetrack (1990, TR
Publishing), namely that the right approach is somewhere in
between value and winners. I have revised my opinion and I
would now say the right approach is value anchored by winners.
What this means in practice is to refrain from exclusively
backing longshots because of the uncertain rate of return which
ensues (even when value has been taken into account).
Direct and Indirect value

A natural consequence of basing our selections on value is
that we have to fully consider the other runners in the race.

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Because of the market mechanism, the price we obtain about

our selection will be partly determined by the betting activity
relating to those other runners, particularly the beasts that
head the market. Hence, we may well have obtained value
because other runners were overvalued, not because our fancy
was systematically undervalued. To help attune myself to this
concept I gave names to these two different types of value. I
called the undervaluing of a horse by the market direct value,
whereas the achievement of a favourable price predominantly
because of the over-valuing of a market leader I termed indirect
value. Direct value comes about when there is a systematic
reason for the runner to represent better value. In turn, this
precipitates an overvaluation of other animals in the race. In the
case of indirect value, it is the overvaluation of another runner
or group of runners which creates the value in our selection.
Typically, rule-based systems work on a simple level: they
churn out selections which represent direct value. It stands to
reason that direct value is greater than indirect value, and that
the greatest value of all occurs when there is both direct and
indirect value. Both types of value would coincide when there is
a market leader that we could oppose in its own right running in
the same race as a less-fancied runner that we are seeking to
back for a systematic reason.

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Hedging
Do You... Or Don’t You?
The term “hedge your bets” is a well-known phrase.
It has been around in English since at least the 16th century,

when it referred to laying off a bet by placing a smaller wager
with other lenders.
And, today in modern gambling, the meaning still holds true.
Essentially, “hedging a bet” means to reduce risk and,

sometimes, guarantee a profit.
The concept is based on placing bets on different outcomes

to create an outcome that returns a profit – winnings minus all
stakes – regardless of whether the original bet wins or loses.
You might be familiar with arbitrage betting – or arbing.
Arbing relies on finding a discrepancy between bookmakers’

odds and placing simultaneous bets.
But hedging is possible due to a shift in odds over time, often

due to a change in circumstances or opinion.
Hedge betting is a gambling strategy that is also used in the

finance world, where the potential losses of investments are
mitigated by other outlays. Hence the term “hedge fund”.
Of course, while losses can be reduced, it means any gains are

also reduced, due to the outlay on the other parts of the hedge.

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Suppose you have bet £1,000 E/W at 6.00 on Finian’s Rainbow

in the above race and on the run-in Finians is neck-and-neck
with Sizing Europe, the others trailing, and you assess that
these splendid horses now have an equal chance of going on
to win.
Following the above race’s on the Betfair Exchange you see

that it is possible to lay Finian’s Rainbow at 2.00 for any amount
of money.
DO YOU OR DON’T YOU?

Without Hedging
Whatever value calculations you made before placing your

original bet are now moot. All that really matters are the current
true odds: the equally likely loss of the £1,000 win component
or a profit of £5,000 on the same.
Over 100 such bets 50 would lose £50,000 and the others win
£250,000; a profit of £200,000 over 100 bets with £100,000
staked for a 100% return on turnover.
With Hedging
Consider now what happens if you ‘do’ … and hedge the

original bet, laying your original £1,000 at 2.00.
Should Finian’s Rainbow fail, then the original win bet and
hedge cancel each other out for a net zero return. If Finians
wins then the payout is £5,000, less the £1,000 hedge for
£4,000.
Over 50 bets that is again £200,000. In other words the hedge

has made no difference whatsoever to the long term returns.
What this conversion into a ‘bet to nothing’ has done though is
remove the possibility of a loss and bankruptcy!
The idea of a certainty now comes into view. If we win £200,000

on average over 100 bets with the two different methods

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described above, can we win £2,000 on every such favourable

situation? How about laying £3,000 at 2.00? Now we win
£2,000 either by -£1,000 + £3,000 (Finian’s Rainbow loses) or
£5,000 - £3,000 (Finian’s Rainbow wins): we ‘win both ways’.
Of course we didn’t have certainty in the first place but hedging

allows us to create certainties. Or does it? There are at least
three critical issues to consider.
1. The average return is consistently £2,000 because the

hedge is made against the true odds. Here is the catch with the
current TV advertising encouraging you to cash out and take
the money. An unwary punter can be lured into making a hedge
at unfair odds. Now the situation becomes unbalanced: instead
of preserving the average returns, hedging at unfavourable
odds (you didn’t expect bookmakers to offer anything else?)
reduces the average return from the winning position, locking in
a reduced payout
2. Life is more complicated and calculation errors are more

likely.
3. Just because one plans to hedge doesn’t mean the

opportunity to do so will arise in the market: there may be
insufficient liquidity for example. These last two are examples of
what the finance community calls an ‘operational risk’.
Binomial Trees
I still recall the difficulties I had when first thinking about

hedging, so I would like to recast the options of ‘letting it ride’,
‘bet to nothing’ and ‘winning both ways’ in the form used by the
Quantitative Finance community, since I think the reformulation
might be more illuminating than plain text and will serve us well
for more complicated situations. When I say I had difficulties, I
was of the opinion that only an idiot would back against himself
when he was on a good thing! Now I appreciate the subtleties
of the situation.

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Just as we gamblers talk about strike rate and ROI so finance

people talk about binomial trees and expected value. The
binomial just means two and the tree means splitting into
branches. Here, below, is the tree I planted on the original bet:
showing the stake; chance of a win (w) and the Betfair price
(BF).
I disagreed with the market assessment of 6.00 on Betfair

and the implied probability of 1/6.00 = 0.166 preferring my
own probability estimate of 0.18 and made a bet of £1,000
(commensurate with my betting bank) on this value opportunity.
I expect to make – in the long run – a profit of £80 on such a
bet, even though my actual returns on any particular bet may
be +5000 or -1000.
Things have moved on in the race! With my selection neck-and-

neck against the only other realistic contender, I estimate my
tree now looks like the below. In other words my instantaneous
standing is +£2000: the only change from the original bet is the
probability of w = 0.5 for a favourable outcome.

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DO I REST ON MY LAURELS, OR DON’T I?

The Idea of Current Value
What are we to make of the transformation from the original

bet value of £80 into one of £2,000, and how do we react to the
same?
To answer this question I’d like you to first consider a far

more extreme case. Suppose you have a 10 race deep £20
accumulator which will win £1,000,000 – providing the last
selection wins. Guess what? Your final leg in the accumulator
has a 50-50 chance of winning, just as in our example race, and
you can lay this last selection on Betfair at the fair price of 2.00.
Some people will offer the view, “Well I only bet £20 originally,
so what the hell, let it ride!” I think this is deeply misguided
(as deeply misguided as the original accumulator, but that’s
another story). I would always try to hedge for as much as I
could (£500,000 will not be available to lay, even on Betfair).
The choice is between: loss of £20 (evens); gain of £500,000
(certain with hedging) and gain of £1,000,000 (evens). My point
is that the difference between winning £500k and £1m in terms
of one’s lifestyle is not so big. A better question is “Well, I can
take £500k, would I bet £500k on an even money shot if I had
that money in my pocket?”
Returning to our more mundane example… the choice is now

between losing £1,000 (evans); winning £2,000 (certain with
hedging) and winning £5,000. Although £2,000 is not a figure
upon which one could retire to the country, its inherent certainty
does ward off the evil of bankruptcy. Note that hedging locks
in the due long term gains, rather than subjecting them to
the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. In other words
hedging allows one to lock in the current value of the bet. Note
that the original bet had a current value when struck. Instead of
thinking “Well, I only bet £1,000 originally”, think “my value has
improved from £80 to £2,000”.

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We always do if the lay odds on offer are fair. It is a matter of

technique, to be performed automatically, just as making any
bet with value is second nature. The only question is how much
to bet from our bank. It is best to ‘win both ways’: leaving a ‘bet
to nothing’ is a job half done (but of course might be all that can
be done on a specific race).
What If The Lay Odds Are Unfair?
Suppose next that the lay odds are unfair, ie. poor value.
This of course is the situation the TV adverts put before us in
the hope that you will be taken in and give away some of our
improved value by using hedging as a sophistry. Instead of the
true 2.00 suppose the market lay odds stands at 2.10, then the
£3,000 lay looks like the picture below.
By attempting to green up and take the money we would hand

back more value than our original bet! Surely we avoid all such
options, just as we avoid all bets which are not value? Hold
your horses a second. Indeed, hold your horses for as long as it
takes to understand my next point: one that I have found eludes
most gamblers, even experts.
The Importance of Volatility
Whatever staking strategy you employ – be it level, proportional

or progressive – the amount of your next bet is determined by

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a formula calculated on the basis that the upcoming wager is

left unhedged for its lifetime. Implicitly or explicitly this formula,
or even pure judgment should you be a natural bettor, tries
to leave enough money in the bank to survive a downturn.
Although we would like to bet our entire bank, we cannot, for
the fear of being wiped out immediately.
Suppose though we knew in advance that an opportunity to

hedge in a favourable position would present itself: how much
would we bet? Everything! Such bets do occasionally occur
and you will probably be aware of them as arbitrage, or arbs.
For example a selection that can be backed for 22.00 with one
bookmaker but laid on Betfair for 21.00. Needless to say this
is increasingly rare, one has to be very quick in exploiting the
arb, which soon closes up once the bookmaker realises he is
out of line with the overall market, but the sensible precaution of
continuously feeding small chunks of money to both sides of the
arb is guaranteed to be profitable bar an operational accident
(or one counterparty in the betting going out of business, not
likely with Betfair or a UK bookmaker).
In the current context I would like to classify an arb as a

static hedge. Static because we make both sides of the bet
at once (or nearly at once, limited as we are by the speed of
bet placement) and a hedge because we take up opposite
positions.
In the Cheltenham race we have been studying the original bet

of £1,000 E/W and the subsequent lay of £3,000 for the win
component on the run in is a dynamic hedge. Here the original
bet and the final hedge are separated in time when conditions
have changed considerably.
Let us take a step back now and consider what function a

hedge performs, making it such a useful technique. To do that
contrast the possible returns and the expectation on Finian’s
Rainbow at the point of the hedge.

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Do you prefer to keep the naked position and gamble, convert

to a bet to nothing or win both ways and hedge? If you still
don’t want to hedge would you mind if your monthly salary
was paid on the same basis? Would you like your employer to
draw £1,000 from your bank account in some months and pay
£5,000 in the remaining months, after tossing a fair coin? Or
would you like to have £2,000 every month?
The key function of hedging is that it eliminates volatility, the

ups and downs which constrain the amount we can bet at any
one turn. Not convinced? Here is a long betting history with
unhedged bets in blue and hedged bets in red.
Note the huge swings in the fortunes of the straight-up bets,

with an extended losing period lasting nearly half the length of
the history. Moreover, could you blame anyone who quit having
started around bet 700 and looking at results to bet 1,700?
Here is an exercise, analyse the race shown at the beginning

of the article and see how many hedging options you can find.
Just one clue: my original bet was £1,000 E/W. Calculate the
win and place over-rounds.

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Place Value
Whether or not one sees value in any particular runner’s win

chances, this race is a prime example of value in the market
leaders’ place chances.
Indeed, bookmakers’ shops typically restrict stakes to £100 EW

on such events. Moreover there are two sources of value: the
inexact determination of place odds by simple division of the
win odds by a constant factor (a systematic error) and the real-

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world factor that a horse which is markedly superior to another

will still win (or be placed) when performing below par.
Note that the race consists of horses in two distinct groups: the
top three market leaders and the remaining five. (If you have
difficulty seeing this, consider a ‘race’ between one horse and
seven Olympic steeplechase athletes. A human will only win in
the most unusual of circumstances, say the horse falls, and so
will be 20/1 and upwards to 1000/1. However two humans must
be placed.)
We can begin to see this advantage by computing the win

and place over-rounds. The win over-round of 106% signifies
a highly competitive market but the place over-round is in fact
overbroke: instead of a fair figure of 300% (there are three
places, remember) the total is only 243%. Were we able to
make place-only bets, a certain profit could be guaranteed
by careful dutching of stakes according to odds without
considering value at all.
Betting Each Way (EW) as Hedge
The mechanical division by four to produce the place odds is

inaccurate, as the overbroke place line shows, but working
out a true place price is an art in itself. To keep the discussion
focused on hedging let us simply note that 243% out of 300% is
roughly the same as 80% out of 100% and with the place value
concentrated in the top three market leaders Finian’s Rainbow

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is probably even money to be placed, ie. 2.00 rather than 2.25,

or a 50% chance to be in the frame. Since at 6.00 he wins
one race in six, a win chance of 16% … and thus is second or
third 50% - 16% = 34% of the time. The expected return on an
£1,000 EW bet is:
ER = 0.16*(5000+1250) + 0.34*(-1000+1250) + 0.5*(-1000-

1000) = 85
In other words 85/(1000+1000) or a 4.25% profit on turnover.
It is important too to note that the distribution of returns is very

different from a straight all up win bet of £2,000: rather than the
occasional +12000 interspersed amongst -2000’s we have the
gentler +6250, +250 and a comparatively rare -2000.
This is important because the relative scarcity of big losses

means that we can bet at higher stakes or with greater safety
against bankruptcy.
One of the desirable effects of hedging is to smooth out returns,

allowing larger bets or increasing safety. Here the EW bet is
a hedge against a potentially losing straight win. Indeed, not
to put too finer point on the matter, one of the principal goals
of the stock market and global financial system is to smooth
out the economy and prevent shocks. That crashes still occur
is largely due to the immense greed of the major financial
institutions and the incompetence of governments in controlling
the same (UK politicians appear unable to fiddle their expenses,
let alone manage the global economy).
What’s Good For The Goose...
While we started off with a preference for Finian’s Rainbow, an

EW bet on Big Zeb is warranted by the same token and is likely
to produce a similar 4% return due to the inherent place value.
Also by the same token, consider what happens when Finian’s

Rainbow finishes down the field. What would have been a total
loss might now be smoothed by a place for Big Zeb, or even
a win for Big Zeb! Of course we have to contend with two total
losses now but the incidence of complete failure is diminishing.

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Better still there is another safety factor built in if we bet on two

selections. Thus far I have been assuming I know how each
runner will perform based on its odds. Suppose I’m wrong (it
happens every day ending in ‘y’). Moreover nobody knows
exactly how the horses are feeling and how events will pan
out. By betting on two selections we accommodate variability
in the actual (unknown) odds. For example if Finian’s Rainbow
performs out of his skin his bet may be 8% favourable and Big
Zeb’s merely break even. And any other combination of true
odds.
Now we are hedging against our lack of knowledge and the

inherent variability of racing which makes it so attractive.
Towards The Backer’s Book
Continuing in this fashion we might ponder the operation of

bookmakers. They too know that despite all their best efforts
an exact estimation of odds is impossible. So they try to take
money on all runners in such a fashion that the end result will
be a small positive no matter which animal wins. Bookmaking is
essentially a continuous hedging operation.
Why shouldn’t we do the same as backers? How would our

“backers book” be affected if we made an EW bet on the
favourite Sizing Europe too?
Perhaps it doesn’t sound like an enticing prospect: an EW bet

on the odds-on favourite? Taking a pessimistic view to begin,
let us assume that the EW bet is break even, ie. the loss on the
win part is balanced by the profit on the place part. Is it worth
the effort? Indeed it is!
Now we have the winner if any of the top three are first past
the post, as well as the place parts according to the number
who finish in the frame. To balance our book and taking the
additional safety route (rather than increasing stakes) we might
dutch the top three to make a small profit whichever wins

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Sizing Europe £600EW at 1.91

Finian’s Rainbow £200EW at 6.00
Big Zeb £200EW at 6.00
Only a skinner from the clouds could upset our plan
Another exercise
How could one hedge against a skinner – Ie. a winner outside

the top three in the market?
Looking for Opportunities
Until you begin looking for hedging opportunities you won’t see
any. They exist in all the major sporting events: in football at
half time or after a goal; in tennis between sets, even games
following a break of serve; in golf between the four rounds; in
cricket between innings, after wickets; in darts between the legs
and so on. Knock out events offer a range of opportunities.
For example, the World Cup is played match by match, in

groups and then into the KO rounds. Once you adopt the habit
of looking, events take on a new life and become far more
interesting than the short time span of a straight win bet.
For example, I scan for races of the type featured. In the

classics it is possible to plan months ahead and scoop up offers
in the festivals where bookmakers have the most competitive
pressure, dropping the place fraction from 1/5th to 1/4.
As you begin to focus on smaller and smaller time intervals,

you approach the idea of trading: betting continuously in real
time on live events, which as they say, is a whole different ball
game.

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Finding Value Each Way Bets

Each-way betting remains a remarkably divisive subject in
horse racing, Yet many of the punters who rely on making
a living out of the sport rely on the vagaries of the each-way
markets in order to find a big enough edge to make their
career choice sustainable. Much rubbish is talked regarding
the subject, and most of it revolves around win prices. There
is no such thing as a “nice each-way price” if your only point of
reference is the current win odds.
Each way betting is also largely misunderstood by the average

bettor and you can tell this by the two main reasons that people
typically consider placing an each way bet.
They want a better chance of winning some money from their

bet.
They are not very confident that their selection will come first.
Both of these are terrible reasons for placing an each way bet.
When you place any bet you should be asking yourself, “Am
I taking value?” - If the answer is no then you should not be
placing the bet. This is no different with each way betting and if
you are placing the right kind of each way bets, I can guarantee
you that you will be taking value.
What is an Each Way Bet?

An Each Way bet is essentially split into 2 bets. The first part of
the bet is a WIN bet on your selection, and the second is that
they will PLACE, the place bet will vary per race or event, but it
will generally be to finish in the top 1 to 4 places depending on
the number of horses in the race and the amount of places the
are paying out.
Here is the standard place terms most bookmakers go by:
1-4 runners: win only

5-7 runners: 1/4 odds a place for 1st, 2nd

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8+ runners: 1/5th odds a place for 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12-15 runners in handicaps only: 1/4 odds a place 1st, 2nd, 3rd
16+ runners in handicaps only: 1/4 odds a place 1st, 2nd, 3rd,
4th
Some bookmakers may offer additional places in certain races

like the Grand National.
You can calculate the place odds of an each way bet by using
one of the following formulas.
1/4 Place Term Odds = (Decimal Win Odds - 1) / 4 + 1
Or
1/5 Place Term Odds = (Decimal Win Odds - 1) / 5 + 1
If the bookmakers place odds are reasonably greater than the

place odds at the Betfair Exchange then you will be taking value
by betting each way.
Most casual punters bet each-way because it reduces their

chance of losing. It is therefore something of a psychological
crutch, and some people bet each-way when the horse they
think will win is priced above a certain threshold, whatever the
make-up of the race. Others bet win only even at 50/1 or bigger,
the failure to take the safety net of a place bet seen as a sign of
machismo.
In truth, the decision to bet each-way should not be about

weakness of character or indecision. If you can identify a win
bet as value, you can – with some work – determine whether
the associated place bet also gives an edge. That is how you
should view such bets, as two propositions, win and place, with
different mathematical aspects. Sometimes the shape of the
race – that is, number of runners and relative prices – is the
determining factor in betting each-way.
Understand Place Terms

Sometimes it is the characteristics of the horse: those with a
solid catalogue of back form in the conditions and class may be

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more attractive propositions than the “could be anything” hype

horses who are often much shorter in the betting.
It’s important to understand what place terms you are likely to

get on an each-way bet, and when those terms err towards the
punter in terms of value and vice versa.
The first thing you can see when looking at terms is that the
value to be had is not linear. Backing each-way in an 8-runner
race gives you a high ratio of places (3) to total runners, but
take one runner away and the number of placed drops by a
third, which is much more significant than the reduction in total
runners.
Similarly, betting in a 16-runner handicap gives you four places,

but a reduction of one makes the race only marginally easier to
solve, while offering a 25% reduction in places. Handicaps with
12 runners are more attractive than 11-runner ones because
the change in terms is more significant than the reduction in
numbers despite the number of placings remaining constant,
and so on.
Take for instance a 16 runner handicap, a race which pays

1/4th the odds each way for the first 4 places. These are races
which favour the punter and fields that the bookmakers disdain.
Punters will often scream foul play when a 16 runner handicap
mysteriously has a late withdrawal to reduce the terms from
each way paying 4 places, to 3. Why is this important to the
value aspect? In a 16 runner race, all things being equal, the
chance of any runner being successful is 16.00. Again, all
runners have an equal chance of finishing in any position, so
the chance of finishing 1st to 4th is 4.00 (25%), 5 to 8th is 4.00
(25%) and so on. However, due to the race terms, punters are
getting odds of 4.75 about what is in reality a 4.00 chance.
If we break this down to percentage chances of success:
3/1 = 25%
15/4 = 21%

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The value edge for an each way bet in a 16 runner handicap,

where there are 4 places paid and all runners have the same
chance, is 4%. To emphasise the importance of the number of
runners and terms further, let’s assume there are 15 runners
and the place terms are now ¼ odds first 3 home. The odds of
each horse winning the race are now 14/1 per runner, and the
chance of a horse finishing in the top 3 is now 4/1 (as the horse
has an equal chance of finishing 1st to 3rd, 4th to 6th, 7 to9th,
10 to12th, 13 to15th). With each runner now having a 14/4
chance of placing, the percentages now look like this:
5.00 = 20%
4.50 = 22.2%
Where there was a value edge of 4% in the 16 runner field, (we

were getting paid out at the odds which suggested the chance
of placing was 4.75 – 21%, when in fact they were 4.00 –
25%), in the 15 runner field we are giving up 2.2% in value,
getting paid out at 4.50 for a bet that realistically has only a
20% chance of success.
It is crucial to take into account the number of places that are

paid out and the number of runners in the field when deciding if
an each way bet offers value. Obviously getting 1/5th odds for
the first 3 in an 8 runner field is better than getting those same
terms when there are 11 runners, as there is more competition
for the places. The rule is the lowest number of runners in each
bracket of each way terms, the better the value. These bets can
be profitable and shrewd given the right race conditions.
Each Way Bets The Bookmakers Don’t Like
Bookmakers like things to be on their own terms. They like to

have the odds in their favour and the vast majority of the time,
they get their own way. However, there are a few circumstances
in which punters have an advantage over their adversaries, and
each way betting can provide that rare opportunity.

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Dirty each way bets can be found in races where there is

generally a strong favourite (usually odds on), and a second
and maybe third favourite with only a small chance of upsetting
the market leaders but a very good chance of filling the places.
The rest of the field are usually big prices i.e. 15.00 bar the rest
of the field.
Let’s take for example a 9 runner race, which looks like this:
Horse A – 1.67
Horse B – 5.00
Horse C – 10.00
26.00 Bar
Horse A is clearly a strong favourite, but it is Horse B we are

interested in. This runner offers plenty of value on the place
side of things. But why?
Well in a 9 runner field, where the odds are 1/5th first 3, we

would receive 1.80 for the place.
However, when looking on a betting exchange, where those

offering odds ARE able to provide separate prices for the win
and place parts of the bet, Horse B would typically be available
in the place market at around 1.45 and in the win market at
around 6.00 – 6.50. The difference in the win part of the bet
is almost immaterial as there is such HUGE value on the place
part of the bet:
Odds on offer = 1.80 (55.6%)

Actual odds = 1.45 (69.0%)
The place part of the bet has a 69% chance of success, but
is being paid out as if it only had a 55.6% of winning. But why
is this so? Because of the uncompetitive nature of the race. If
the favourite were not running, Horse B would be around an
2.38 shot (42.1%) to win. Therefore by adding up the chance
of upsetting the favourite, coming second and finishing 3rd, the
chance of finishing in the top 3 for each way purposes, is much
greater than the 1.80 odds we are getting.

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Compounding the value

Multiples are generally a bet type to stick well clear of, as the
bookmakers make big profits as soon as one selection fails
to win. The Lucky 15 is an exception to that rule, especially
when there are some dirty each way bets in the mix. Lucky
15’s consist of 4 selections, with singles, doubles trebles and a
fourfold totalling 15 bets, and when they are placed each way,
this is doubled to a total of 30. A £1 each way Lucky 15 will
cost a punter £30 to place. One of the benefits of this bet is that
most bookmakers will offer concessions such as treble the odds
for one winner.
The value from dirty each way bets can be compounded into
the Lucky 15 to bring regular profits. Without delving into the
mechanics too much, take for instance the fourfold part of the
bet where we have four horses that offer the same value as
Horse B in the previous example – all available at 5.00 and
1.80 the place, but with the true odds on the place side of the
bet being far more lucrative.
Place odds on each runner: 1.80
Odds received:
1.8 x 1.8 x 1.8 x 1.8 = 10.5 =

9.5% chance
True odds:
1.45 x 1.45 x 1.45 x 1.45 = 4.42 =

22.6% chance
In this bet, there is 13.1% (22.6% - 9.5%) value, which is

massive. Factor in that there is a chance one of the selections
may win (if not more) and that runner will be paid out at treble
the odds, and the bet suddenly looks even more appealing.

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How Good Is The Odds Forecast?

We know that the betting market is generally an accurate
representation of the chances a horse has of winning. But of
course it isn’t always right otherwise we wouldn’t be able to
make a profit.
I’m going to be using the Racing Post overnight racing forecast

odds and the Betfair market odds (with commission taken out)
for this analysis.
Let’s start by looking at how the first, second and third

favourites perform.
Forecast Wins Losses Runners SR Profit ROI Avg
Rank Odds
1 4731 9717 14448 33% -1,040.02 -7% 3.59

2 2709 10931 13640 20% -1,135.22 -8% 5.55
3 1780 11630 13410 13% -1,265.54 -9% 8.77
This shows us that the favourites are still winning 33% of the
time as expected.
However they are also losing 7% of everything bet on them.

If you’re betting £100 then you’re only going to be getting £93
back on average.
Not a good bet, unless you happen to be getting a 10% rebate.
As expected the strike rate decreases for second and third

favourites as does the ROI, while the average odds increases.
So far everything is as we would expect.
But now we’re going to throw in the Racing Post overnight odds
forecast into the mix and see what we get.
I’m going to start by looking at the forecast favourites on their

own.

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Rank Odds
1 4363 15426 19789 22% -6,278.43 -32% 8.13

2 2560 11192 13752 19% -733.97 -5% 8.11
3 1725 11480 13205 13% -1,126.65 -9% 12.42
Well the first thing we know is that we should not be betting on

the Racing Post forecast favourite.
They win 22% of the time and more than the second and third
favourites, so they’re doing alright at picking the horses that win
the most often. But…
…they make a 32% loss on every bet.
That means if you bet £100 on the Racing Post overnight

forecast favourite you would lose an average of £32 on each
bet!
Why?
I would suggest that the reason for this is because so many
punters use the Racing Post forecast odds as their main
handicapping factor, which means it has turned into one of the
worst individual factors for making a positive return I’ve seen!
In fact betting on the actual favourite makes 25% more profit

than betting on the Racing Post’s forecast favourite.
So we know immediately that we can’t use this favourite from

the Racing Post as a factor on it’s own (or possibly at all) in our
handicapping.
But moving to the second ranked we see that these horses win
19% of the time, which is pretty much the same as the second
rank in the market, but only lose 5% of what’s bet on them,
which is significantly better than the second favourite in the
market.

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It’s possible that there could be some mileage in there. But

what we want to look at are where the forecast favourites (and
second favourites) end up in the live market and how that
affects their profitability.
Rank Odds
1 3013 5270 8283 36% -941.94 -11% 3.12

2 901 1987 2888 31% 1.57 0% 3.75
3 398 1047 1445 28% -38.54 -3% 4.17
The table above shows the forecast favourites that ended up as

the market favourites.
We can see that the forecast favourite still makes a loss, but
it’s a lot lower than its average loss when it ends up the market
favourite as well.
The second forecast favourite actually ends-up at break-even

when the runners end up as favourite.
The third forecast favourite also makes a significantly better

return, albeit still a loss, when it ends up as forecast favourite.
Keeping this information in mind let’s look at what happens

to the forecast favourites that end up as the market second
favourites.
Rank Odds
1 680 2781 3461 20% -791.28 -23% 5.06

2 1000 3603 4603 22% -167.55 -4% 5.31
3 456 1885 2341 19% -125.25 -5% 5.62
This doesn’t perform as well as the horses that were bet down
all the way into favourite positions.

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Rank Odds
1 280 1694 1974 14% -633.75 -32% 7.01

2 357 2309 2666 13% -302.39 -11% 7.78
3 449 3183 3632 12% 370.25 -10% 10.13
The above table shows those horses bet into third position in
the market and we can see that again the returns deteriorate
along with the strike rate.
So far from this analysis we’ve learned that horses in the top
three forecast odds which are bet down to the favourite perform
better than those which are bet out.
Let’s take another look at the table which focuses on these

runners:
Rank Odds
1 3013 5270 8283 36% -941.94 -11% 3.12

2 901 1987 2888 31% 1.57 0% 3.75
3 398 1047 1445 28% -38.54 -3% 4.17
There’s something very interesting in the number of runners in

this sample.
The total number of runners is 12,616. Out of these runners

8,283 are forecast as favourites by the Racing Post.
That’s over 65% of all the runners in the top three are forecast
as favourites. If we compare this to the market top three where
34% are ranked as favourite we can see that this is a massive
difference.
Is this because the Racing Post handicappers know so many

people use their forecasts in their handicapping and by making
such a high percentage as favourite they are going to have a
much better strike rate?

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However if we go down to the second forecast favourite only

23% make up these runners as opposed to nearly 33% in the
live market.
Of course, if the Racing Post handicappers are making so

many runners the favourite they have to be more selective on
the second favourite.
This selectivity combined with the betting down to market

favourite in turn makes these selections break-even while only
reducing the strike rate by 5% and maintaining it at above 30%.
In fact if you can get Betfair SP odds or higher and a rebate

from a high turnover you may even be able to make these
runners pay!
In conclusion, what have we discovered?
You should under no circumstances use the Racing Post

overnight forecast odds rank as a factor in your handicapping
(unless perhaps you’re laying).
The horses from the top three Racing Post overnight odds
forecast perform better and return more if they are bet down
into the favourite.
The Racing Post handicappers choose a large proportion of

horses to be forecast favourites.
The Racing Post second forecast favourite when bet down

to the favourite returns a breakeven profit to Betfair SP after
commission has been taken into account.

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Confusing Stats
As punters it’s important to take time out to look on how you
find your selections, what variables you use and whether those
variables are helping you to make a profit.
Many punters and I include myself in this, place great value on

form guide statistics. In many cases punters look for horses that
have the following traits:
• Race fit, not returning from long absence.

• Have won at the distance of the race.
• Have won on the prevailing going.
• Career Win Percentage.
• Have won at the course or are C&D winners.
• Finished in the first three on their last start.
There are of course plenty more that I could have added.
The more of the above traits a horse has the more we think that
it offers as a betting proposition.
Conversely the less traits the horse has the riskier it is, thus
makes it a poor betting proposition. However, is this always
correct, and should we be attaching such value to such
statistics?
There’s plenty of logic backing horses in winning form for

example, as they win most races. Horses lacking fitness
normally don’t win nor do horses who can’t handle the going.
I’m looking at whether some of the popular form stats that we

use may not be as reliable as we think.
For the purpose of this exercise the results below cover the
years from 1st May 2015 to 31st April 2019 and cover National
Hunt Racing in the UK only. I have also used an odds filter
of 12/1 to concentrate on those runners the betting market
considers having a genuine chance of winning their respective
races.

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Previous Form After an Absence

Let’s begin by looking at previous form after a 91+day absence.
Here are the results for all qualifying races run during the period
of research using the 12/1 & below odds filter:
Horses on their first start after a 90+ day absence have a 17%-
win strike rate.
Now you certainly can’t back them blind. If you had, you would
have lost £2340.21 to a £1 level stakes.
Now there is a slight increase in the number of winners for

those horses having their second and third races off an
absence and those on their third to fifth starts. But the returns
are not significantly better for the race fit horses in a race.
If we dig a bit deeper what about those horses returning from

an even longer break, of say 180+ days?

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Those horses on a second start after such a layoff have

produced the following set of results:
The key takeaway here is don’t get too carried away with race
fitness. If you like a horse who is returning from an absence
don’t be put off.
You need to look at the horses’ record after an absence to see

if it’s capable of winning or not. You can also check the trainers’
record with runners winning first time up.
For example, the Nicky Henderson trained hurdler Buveur

D’Air is has an exceptional record first time up after a 91+day
absence:
Compare his record with the Dan Skelton trained Value At Risk.

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For example, trainers who have excellent records with their

handicap runners, 12/1 & under, returning from a 90+day
absence worth noting are:
Previous Distance Winners

Plenty of punters like to see their selection having a D against
the horse’s name on a race card or daily newspaper. Once
again proven winning form over the distance of a race can give
you extra confidence in the selection.
Again, using the 12/1 & under odds filter and on this occasion
handicap races only let’s have a look at the results for distance
winners:

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Horses with +1 win at the distance have produced:
The ability of a horse to stay the distance of race is an

important factor but once again there are only marginal benefits
to be a distance winner and hardly a sign of real profitable
betting opportunity.
So if you like a horse and it has other compelling factors in

its favour then you shouldn’t be duly concerned by a lack of
distance winning from.
Previous Wins On The Going

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Looking at those results what becomes clear is that a win on

the same going description can, like a win over the distance,
be a positive factor. Granted horses with four wins on the going
have been profitable over the period under research the Chi
Score isn’t high enough and suggests it’s down to luck rather
than anything more meaningful. So, once again there are no
clear, profitable betting opportunities to be exploited.
Before moving onto the next factor it’s worth having a look at
how winning form on heavy ground may differ from the overall
figures.
The figures indicate that plenty of winning form on heavy

ground 3+ wins can be an important factor. A horse with one
win on heavy ground does worse than a horse with no winning
form on heavy and the latter provides punters with more in the
way of betting value.

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Horses Career Win Percentage

For many punters the best horses to back are those who have a
high win percentage and the worst are those who don’t win very
often compared to their number of runs. Once again, eminently
a common-sense approach.
On this occasion I have only looked at horses with 10+ runs

but once again kept the odds filter of 12/1 in place. Using only
horses with 10+ runs means the figures can’t be skewed by
lightly raced horses.
Those horses that had never won a race produced the following
set of stats:
Those horses with a career win percentage between 2% & 9%

are:

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Horses with a career win percentage between 10% & 20% are:
Those with a 21% to 30%-win percentage are:
Those with a 31% to 50%-win percentage are:

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Those with a 52% + win percentage have produced:
The research shows that the bias towards horses with high
win strike rates doesn’t add much in the way of betting value.
Indeed, horses that have never won win as often as those with
31% + win strike rate.
Previous Wins at The Track

Previous wins at track can be a sign of liking for that track. We
all have heard the saying “Horses for Courses”. Depending on
the track it could be highly significant, or it could have very little
significance.
Looking at stats for all British racecourses:
Breaking it down further by track. The best performing tracks for

previous course winners are:

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And the lesser performing tracks for previous course winners

are:
Genuine track specialists are not that common and once again
looking at previous course wins in general has no impact on
finding value betting opportunities. The one caveat to that is
certain tracks are better for previous course winners.
In summary:
Horses with previous wins at the distance or on the going or at
the track don’t offer much in the way of value than those horses
without.
Those horses in handicap races with a high career win

percentage don’t win as often as those horses without a career
win.
As punters we are reassured when a horse is a 3 from 3 at

the track and has won on the going but statistically it doesn’t
actually mean much without taking other form factors into
consideration.

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Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Writer Mark Twain attributed the above phrase to 19th-century
British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli, who clearly wasn’t a
fan of statistics.
It’s not surprising people mistrust them, they can be used to

bolster a weak argument or to prove a point and leave out
those stats that don’t prove their argument or point. It doesn’t
have to be done dishonestly either, it can be done in error. Like
when people build horse racing systems and use the stats to
‘backfit’ and make the results better than they are actually are.
I will delve into ‘backfitting’ when I look at system building in a
planned future article.
This is the first of a three-part series where I will be looking

at the use of stats in horse racing. I was inspired to write it by
a comment made by a pundit on Racing UK’s TV channel on
a particular trainer’s win strike rate at a racecourse. Those
who inhabit the ‘rarefied’ world of the racing media love to reel
off stats. But how many of those stats add value for serious
punters?
The main purpose of this series of articles is to look at the main

stats that are used when it comes to horse racing and see
which are useful and which are about as useful as a chocolate
fireguard…
Different Types of Horse Racing Stats

I am sure you have heard them too. Stats like, sire Sea The
Stars has a 27% win strike rate with all his runners at Sandown
or trainer Sir Micheal Stoute and jockey Ryan Moore have a
24% strike rate when teaming up together in the past five years.
Do these sorts of stats have any relevance to punters. I would
say, if used only on their own, then no!
What the serious punter requires is the context in which

the stats have been gathered and even more importantly

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how profitable are the stats? The Sea The Stars stat is only
meaningful if we know if we would have made a profit backing
all his runners at Sandown. Meanwhile the trainer/jockey
sample size is too small to be a really reliable dataset.
That said, for the serious punter, using stats in the right way
can give you a vital edge over other punters.
I will begin by looking at three fairly widely available stats that

all punters can access either through their daily newspaper or
through the racing trade paper the Racing Post. These are:
• Number of wins;
• Strike rate or win %;
• Profit to a £1 level stake.
All three share something in common – they are useful in

context but in reality, given their availability to all punters, they
are not that useful in their own right.
Number of Wins
This is a stat that is commonly available in most newspapers
and is designed to show who the best jockeys and trainers are
at a particular track. As an example, let’s look at jockey’s win
records at Cheltenham. The top two jockeys in terms of wins at
the time of writing are:
Richard Johnston - 106

B J Geraghty - 100
But it’s what’s missing that should be of most interest to

punters. What this set of stats fails to show is that Richard
Johnston had some 831 rides to get to that total of wins, a win
strike rate of 12.76%, meaning he won on less than one in eight
of his rides at the course.
The even more crucial missing element is his profit figure at

the course. If you had backed all of his 831 rides with a pound,
would you have made any money? In Richard’s case you

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wouldn’t have made any money and in fact you would have lost
as much as £164.79 to £1 level stakes at starting price.
Win Strike Rate or Win %

Does this stat provide us with more value information to us than
the previous one? Well we can say one thing it’s a better stat
than the previous one and gives a better indicator about who is
the ‘best’.
To better explain this, here are two examples of good strike

rates:
Jockey - William Buick has a 26% win strike rate when riding at
York in the past five years.
Trainer - William Haggas has a 30% win strike rate with all his
runners at Pontefract in the past five years.
And here are a couple of examples of a bad strike rates:
Jockey – Silvestre De Sousa has an 8% winning strike rate at

Goodwood in the past five years.
Trainer - Andrew Balding has a 9% win strike rate with all his
runners at Newmarket (Rowley Course) in the past five years.
It’s really easy to work out a winning strike rate. All you need is
the number of winners and the number of runners:
Let’s take the above William Haggas stat as an example:

William Haggas had 14 winners from 47 runners at Pontefract.
We divide the number of winners by the number of runners and
multiply by 100 = 29.78%.
‘Win strike rate’ is a better stat to work with than the ‘number
of wins’, as it shows at a glance good or bad figures and in the
above example, jockey Silvestre De Sousa, we can see that he
doesn’t have the best of strike rates when riding at Goodwood’s
undulating track. However, like the previous stat it still misses
out one key factor.

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We know that William Haggas wins with 30% of the horses he

sends to Pontefract but we don’t know if we would have made
any money by backing all of those runners.
In fact, in the case of William Haggas you would have lost £1 if

you had backed all his runners to level stakes.
Profit to Level Stakes

Tipsters often show this to underline how profitable their tips or
systems are and even the odd paper will use £1 level stakes
stats to show whether a trainer or jockey are best at a particular
course.
Here is an example of profit to level stakes, using trainers at

Brighton in the past five years:
Brighton Trainers - The top two trainers in terms of profit are:
George Baker +£96

David Evans -+71
From the above figures you would think that George Baker and
David Evans are two trainers whose horses are worth backing
at the course. As with the two other stats already looked at,
they only tell part of the story. In the case of George Baker, he
had a 66/1 and 33/1 winner in those figures which certainly puts
his level stakes profit into a bit of perspective.
Granted it’s a less crude stat than using number of wins and
at least using this stat we can see which trainers have made a
profit with their runners at particular course in this case Brighton
but like the other two it has its limitations.
Here we have no idea as to how many bets were placed on the

George Baker and David Evans trained horses to get the above
profits.

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Return on Investment (ROI)

If “number of wins’, ‘win%’ and ‘profit to level stakes’ provide
only a few pieces to help complete the jigsaw.
What do ROI stats provide punters with? Well, they provide a

lot more value to punters than the other three, that’s for sure,
and if you are serious about your betting this is a very useful
stat to get to know.
Unlike just looking at profit, the ROI shows you how much profit
you are making from every unit or point invested.
The ROI shows us exactly how much we are making for every
one unit invested. In effect it levels the playing field. When
using ROI it doesn’t matter whether selections require more
units to bet or if they risk more for their profit.
ROI is how much profit is returned compared to how much you

have to bet.
Let me illustrate with a couple of examples of trainers with a

positive ROI at York:
Luca Cumani 43%

William Haggas 32%
The way to calculate ROI is actually a very simple:
ROI% = Total Profit / Total Staked, Multipled by 100 (at level

stakes)
Using Luca Cumani as the working example: His profit was

+30.5 divided by 71 bets x 100 = 43%
Next a trainer at York with a very poor ROI:
Aiden O’Brien = -67%
A positive ROI can be a good betting opportunity and negative

ROI a bad one. But as with the level stakes profit stat, there is a
downside.
The example that I gave in the previous section regarding

trainer George Baker at Brighton, where a 66/1 winner can

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skew the figures markedly and make a trainer look profitable at

a track when in fact he or she isn’t profitable to follow and vice
versa.
A trainer could have poor ROI with his runners but by digging a
bit deeper you might find that he or she is actually a profitable
trainer to follow under certain conditions and that’s the case
with Aiden O’Brien at York, who has poor ROI when looking
at all his runners at York in the past five years but if you had
backed all his runners in Group 1 races at the course that
started 8/1 & under in the betting his ROI would be +107%.
I like the ROI stat and it certainly has far more value that the
first three stats I looked at before,but you still have to be careful
when using ROI as a guide to profitability and need to check
that a couple of big priced winners haven’t had a major impact
on the figures.
The next two stats we will look at are the A/E stat and Impact
Value Stat.
The importance of both of these two tools and an understanding

how they work is essential for anyone who likes system building
and indeed anyone who wants to make a long term profit from
their betting.
The A/E Stat

What is the A/E Stat?
The A/E stat is a value type stat which can also be used instead
of the ROI stat. The A stands for Actual while the E stands for
Expected and this stat shows the index of actual winners to
expected winners. The actual wins is derived from real results,
the expected part of the equation is calculated statistically. The
A/E is a ratio of the actual number of winners compared to the
number of winners expected based on their odds.

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How Do You Work Out Actual Versus Expected?
Let’s look at this in a bit more detail. It’s fairly easy to

understand what is meant by actual number of winners. For
example, in the last five years, trainer Richard Fahey has had
46 winners at York. That is his actual number of winners at the
track. So far so good, but how do we find the expected number
of winners? When starting to look at this you might find it a little
daunting and tricky to get to grips with, but it’s actually a lot
easier to work out than you might think and the formula that is
used is a fairly simple one.
The A/E Stat in Horse Racing
Relating this back to horse racing, let’s look at how well

favourites have fared in two year old
maiden races at York: Since 2011 there have been 69 such

races and the outright favourite has been successful on 22
occasions. We then add up the starting prices of all the 69
favourites which come to 22.8
How do we put a runner’s SP in percentage terms?
Well we do the sum 1 / decimal odds, multiplied by 100,
We then divide the actual number of winning favourites, 22, by

the combined odds of those winning favourites, 22.8.
Thus the A/E is 22/22.8 = 0.96.
We would have expected around 22 winners so that is actually

a good figure with the favourite winning this type of race nearly
as often as expected too and if we take into consideration the
‘bookies’ over-round then they are indeed winning as expected
which would give an A/E of 1.0.
An A/E of 1.0 is considered to be as expected. Thus a figure

above 1.0 shows us that runners are winning more regularly
than expected and vice versa a figure below 1.00 indicates that
runners are winning less than expected.

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Let use Richard Fahey at York again and see what his A/E is:
Richard Fahey has had 723 runners in the past 5 seasons at

York. He has had 46 actual winners. Adding up the SP odds of
all his winners gives us 72 expected winners
We expected him to have 72 winners but he has only had 46
A/E 46/72 = 0.64
Clearly the Richard Fahey horses at York are winning much

less often than the market expects them to.
The A/E stat is important because its gives us some sort of idea
of what is a value bet and what isn’t. The more above 1.0, the
more value there is and the lower the number below the less
value there is.
In the Fahey example we can see there is no value to be had

backing his runners at York and indeed they do provide plenty
of opportunities for layers.
However, the stat can be used in plenty of ways, not just

looking at how well two year favourites have fared at York or
how well a trainer has done at a particular track. If you are
keeping records of all your bets you can use the A/E stat to
see if your own bets are winning more than or indeed less than
expected.
I believe with the right sort of sample size, the A/E is the best
stat a punter can use! So it’s surprising then you will not see
any such stat freely available in the Racing Post, never mind in
whatever your daily newspaper of choice is.
Impact Value Stat

The use of Impact Values in horse race betting was first
introduced by Fred Davis. No, not the legendary snooker
player. This Fred Davis was an American mathematician and
writer who wrote a book called “Percentages and Probabilities”
in 1974. He looked at analysing horse racing information
through a new stat, “Impact Values”. It is one of the most

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important stats used by pro punters and private handicappers

in the USA, but it doesn’t seem to be as popular this side of
the Atlantic where “old school” formbook study has been in the
ascendant, although I think this is starting to change.
What is Impact Value?

The generally accepted definition of the term is
“An index which is calculated by looking at the percentage of

winners that possess a particular characteristic when compared
to the percentage of winners from the group as a whole” –
Warren Block.
I think this is a fair definition which I am happy to use.
You probably have never heard Impact Value being discussed

amongst the pundits on Racing UK or ATR or see it being
discussed in the daily newspaper but it’s a very powerful stat
and one you should be aware of. Some may be put off because
it sounds complicated but it really isn’t and it’s a stat that’s easy
to calculate too.
IV = % of winners that were LTO winners / % of runners that

were LTO winners
(LTO = Last Time Out)
How can we make this a bit clearer? Well let’s look at a few
examples of it in action:
Al Shaqab Racing in UK Group Races
Al Shaqab Racing have put a lot of money into buying top class
horses to run in the big races, so let us see how they have done
in UK Group races.
Since 2011 there have been 807 winners from 7,617 runners in
Group 1, Group 2 & Group 3 races in the UK.
Al Shaqab Racing have had 50 runners in those races and 16

winners

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IV = (16 / 807) / (50/ 7617)

IV= 3.1
From this example, we can see that owners Al Shaqab Racing

have won three times more races than the norm.
William Haggas Trained Runners at York
For the second example let’s look at William Haggas trained

runners at York since 2011:
Since 2011 there have been 633 winners from 7764 runners at
York
William Haggas has had 165 runners of which 37 won their

races
IV= (37 / 633) / (165 / 7764)

IV= 2.76
We can see from the above IV that William Haggas horses at

York have been winning 2.76 more times than the norm.
Top Weights in Nursery Handicaps - Turf
For the final example let’s look at clear top weights in nursery
handicaps since 2011:
Since 2011 there have been 7,297 runners in nursery

handicaps on the turf and 841 winners
There were 711 clear top weights in such races of which 152
won their races
IV = (152 / 841) / (711 / 7297)

IV = 1.85
In this example, it’s clear top weight’s in nurseries are 1.85

times more likely to win than the norm.

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Top Weights in Nursery Handicaps – All Weather
Let’s compare the above results for top weights in nursery

handicaps on the all weather for the same period.
Since 2011 there have been 4696 runners in nursery handicaps

on the all weather and 514 winners
There were 370 clear top weights in such races of which 64

won their races
IV = (64 / 514) / (370 / 4696)

IV = 1.58
What we can see is that top weights win more nursery handicap
races on the turf than they do on the all weather.
Like with the A/E stat we are looking for figures which are
greater than 1.00. Any figure above 1.00 is good whilst a
figure below 1.00 means the group is underperforming and
not winning their share of races but could provide layers with
opportunities.
A/E and Impact Value Stat: The Way to Go?

It can be argued that the A/E is a more important stat, but the
Impact Value stat isn’t too far behind, it‘s a very powerful stat in
its own right and it gives you an understanding as to how strong
any given statistic is.
As with all stats you should never use impact value figure
in isolation. You should examine the A/E, Impact Value and
also ROI stats together. Strong positives about all three are a
powerful combination as they indicate horses that are winning
more races than they should and are underbet, i.e. going off at
higher prices than they should.
In this final sectiont we will examine the Archie or Chi Score,

before a brief look the importance of sample sizes and the utility
of trend stats, such as big race ten-year trends, when it comes
to weighing up the success of any given stat. Finally, we will
analyse them to see how useful they are or not in helping you

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in the goal to making a sustainable profit from betting on horse

racing.
What is the Archie Score?

Well very simply, it is a stat that shows you if your betting
results are down to skill or luck. If you roll a dice 20 times and
it comes up with a six every time how can you tell if the die is
rigged or if it’s down to a lucky streak? If a trainer has good
stats with his or her handicap debutants at Pontefract how
can we tell if that trainer is skilled at placing such horses or is
their success down purely to luck? Well there is a statistical
test, which is called the Chi Squared test and it was adapted to
horse racing via the Archie test.
Calculating the Archie Score

I am not going to look at the Chi Squared test or the Chi formula
in any detail here but if you want to look at it more you can find
it explained in plenty of books on statistics. What I want to do
here is provide you with an easy way of calculating it and using
it to your advantage.
For the sake of simplicity and to make following the maths a bit
easier I will use a small number of selections to calculate the
Archie Score, in this case just seven. Now using just seven bets
wouldn’t normally be enough of a sample to calculate a reliable
Archie Score but it will give you an understanding of how the
mechanics of it all work.
Archie Formula:

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Let’s look at a trainer’s record at Southwell when he only sends

one runner to the track. He has had four winners from seven
runners meeting those criteria. Here are those seven bets with
their decimal odds, probability and the result of each of the
bets.
Previously we looked at the Actual versus Expected winner

stats. Expected Winners is simply the sum of the Probability
Column. The probability is calculated by doing 1 divided by the
decimal odds. So in above example the number of expected
Winners is 1.18.
We have three winners from seven runners and using the

above formula we can calculate the Archie Score:
Archie Score = 7 x (3 -1.18)² divided by 1.18 x (7 -1.18)

Archie Score = 23.18 / 6.86
Archie Score = 3.37
To work out the likelihood of chance determining those three

winners we can use the following conversion table:

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So there we have it, a less than 8% probability that the above

results are down to chance. Naturally the accuracy of the
figures would be much better if we had more selections in the
sample, but hopefully you get the idea.
Sample Sizes and their Importance

One problem with horse racing stats is that the sample size is
often too low like the example above. A sample size of seven
runners can hardly be relied on. It’s not just the number of
runners that count but also the odds of those runners. For
example if a jockey has ridden all 20/1 shots at Southwell you
would need a sample bigger than 20 rides. Conversely if the
same jockey had ridden all 3/1 shots the sample size can be
lower.
That why I tend to use the Expected Wins figure. In the above
example Henry Oliver had an Expected Win figure of 1.18

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which would be too low to have confidence in. I look for at least
an Expected Win figure of 5 while others believe that a figure of
10 is more robust as the sample size at that point can be relied
upon. Just because a stat has reached a figure of 10 Expected
Wins doesn’t mean it’s a profitable stat but it does mean you
have enough data to make a more informed decision as to
whether you bet or not.
The higher the Archie Score, the less likely the selections are
based on luck – thus they are more likely to be down to skill.
If it’s down to skill it gives you the confidence to invest in your
selections.
In Archie’s case bigger is indeed better. When I look at system

building I wouldn’t want an Archie Score of less than 3 and
ideally I would want one of 5 or more, with at least 5 expected
wins and a decent sample size.
Summary
It’s fair to say that more and more punters are using stats to try
to find winners but most of them are relying on the wrong kind
of stats or don’t really know how to use the stats to maximum
effect.
The two biggest mistakes that punters can make are:
1. To rely on a small sample size. A trainer might have had two

wins from three runners at Pontefract for a 67% win strike rate
but however exciting that stat may look its too small a sample to
rely on.
2. Punters don’t take into consideration the profitability of a stat.

A trainer could have a 25% strike rate with his first time two
year olds at Pontefract but what that headline 25% win strike
rate doesn’t tell us if backing all that trainers first time out two
year old runners would have yielded a profit or loss.
The A/E stat is the most important stat for me. This stat looks
at the odds of all the previous runners and is usually is an
excellent guide to finding “value” betting propositions. But

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a good A/E is only reliable when used in conjunction with a

decent sample size and a decent number of Expected Winners.
The Impact Value Stat isn’t too far behind the A/E Stat and
is a very powerful stat in its own right as it gives you an
understanding as to how strong any given statistic is.

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Losing Runs And How To Cope

With Them
One of the hardest things to cope with in betting is losing
runs and, as the emotional aspect of betting is of paramount
importance to the success of a successful bettor, we need to
learn how to manage them.
We need to remove all emotion from our betting and this can be
a difficult discipline to master as when we win it’s elation, when
we lose it is frustration. The two can happen in the space of an
hour and only serve to damage the way we bet.
I recall various occasions when I would mutter under my breath

and clench my fists at the utter despair of a loser. In contrast I
also remember punching the air and skipping around the living
room at the sight of my horse romping home at big odds.
Sound familiar?
We’ve all been there I’m sure, but this is what betting is and I
guess what makes the world of horse racing such a colourful
event!
However, these displays of emotion are born out of not only

poor discipline if you are attempting to become a professional,
but also signs that there are not enough management systems
in place around other aspects of your betting.
When making a living from racing we need to change our

perspectives entirely, and I’m not saying you can’t enjoy the
odd “punt” with friends or get excited when you’ve finally picked
the winner of the Grand National, but in a sense you need to
become more focused on the numbers and not the event.
I now only watch one or two live races a day and that is purely
because I comment on the performance of the selection I
provide in my Back/Lay thread. The remaining races are left to
purely checking results after the races have occurred. We need
to have our selection process in place, the method of which we
place our bets and then the only other job at the end of the day

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is effectively data input. We tally up the results in our records, close the
book and wait for the next day when we start our approach all over again.
Of course it is of extreme importance that we’ve done all the necessary

planning before we attempt to profit.
• We need to know that our selection process is effective.
• We need to know that our stake sizes are not only correct but are
making us the maximum returns.
• We need to know that our bank is big enough to encounter the

inevitable losing runs.
• We need to know that if something isn’t working we can alter or adapt

to change things around to get back on track.
• We need to know all of the above before we even strike our first bet.
Once all that is in place we need to then be confident that once the losing
streak occurs we have the patience and discipline to see it out.
Can you handle long losing runs or would you rather have shorter ones?
Only your personality can decide upon that. You need to be heading
toward the top end of the market if you want short losing runs, the other
end of the market is only suitable if you can cope with larger downswings.
Again these are all decisions you need to make before unleashing your
betting bank!
On the whole if you’ve done your homework and preparation and are
confident that you’re ready to start betting the utmost important thing you
can do is remove that emotion, look at the numbers and when it wins it
wins and when it loses it loses and that is that.

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Pace
When looking at a race for the first time. How many of you
consider pace before delving into the form of each runner?
I must confess until a few years ago and a trip to the USA, I
didn’t. However, pace is now becoming a very important part of
the way I go about analysing a race.
There’s nothing more frustrating than spending time looking at

the form of the runners in the race, picking what you think is an
excellent bet, only to find out that the race might not be run to
suit your pick.
This article is a very much a beginner’s guide to pace but

presents in a simple way the various categories of running
styles and pace scenarios.
Starting to Think About Pace

For years, in North America, pace has been an important tool in
a punters armoury when it has come to handicapping a race.
Until recently it was mostly overlooked by punters on this side

of the Atlantic. Two reasons can be given why this happened.
Firstly, until recently there was a woeful lack of easily

accessible data for punters to use. I say easily accessible for a
reason. To fully understand how a race was run punters had to
watch as many race replays as they could, or they had to wade
through the in- running commentary in the results section of the
likes of the Racing Post, Raceform or Sporting Life.
Of course, all of this was insanely time consuming. Most

punters just didn’t have the time to devote to such a process
and so it was mostly left alone. Things have improved a lot in
recent years and there are more sources where punters can go
and find out how a race will be run from a pace perspective.

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The www.attheraces.com website now has a pace tab on its race

cards and it’s free to use.
Then there are the pace map features to be found on the

racecards at www.geegeez.com which is a private members
site (not free).
Never underestimate the power of visuals for delivering

information as quickly and efficiently as possible.
For me the visual picturing has added a whole new dimension

to how I see a race.
From a personal perspective, I really like the pace maps feature

on geegeez. They are more comprehensive than the At The
Races ones and just seem to do the same job.

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Of course, geegeez is a subscription-based site but even free

members get a few races each day where you can see the
pace feature in action.
The second reason why pace hasn’t been important for many
UK based punters, is down to a lack of knowledge on how pace
can affect the result of a race.
Pace Categories
Horses are basically herd animals, so theory goes, which tends
to mean they have a certain position when running within the
herd. So, to fully grasp the concept of pace in the race you
need to understand running styles.
Each horse has a running style that helps them to produce their
best efforts. Some horses have the flexibility to produce their
best efforts using different running styles, but they tend to be an
exception to the rule.
Although there is no agreed definition regarding horses running

styles. Here are the four main ones:
Leaders or Early Speed Runners

These are front runners. They like to be at the head of the herd.
These horses will be leading (or very close to the lead).
If a horse has often been in the lead in the first quarter of a race
or very close to it, they can be described as early speed horses.
Looking at the above GeeGeez pace map Club Wexford is the

only horse in the race who likes to lead.
In the Racing Post results commentary, you will see the words
“led”, or “with the leader”.
If they have the right conditions and the stamina, they can lead
all the way from leaving the stalls to the winning post.

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Prominent Runners
The prominent racers sometimes called ‘pressers’ as they
usually sit just behind the leader and press the pace. They
usually have enough early speed to get a position close to the
leader(s). They are often in an ideal position, if the early pace
horses slow down.
In the Racing Post results section for a race you will often
see comments like “prominent”, “tracked leader” or “chased
leaders”. These comments indicate that the horse is a
prominent racer. In some cases, they don’t have the speed
to take the lead, but they have enough to stay within striking
distance of the leaders.
Like leaders, prominent racers can win plenty of races when

they get their right conditions
Mid Division
Runners Plenty of horses fall into this category. The ‘stalkers’,
as the American’s often call them, are usually about 3 or 4
lengths off the leaders but they never get too far back and are
close enough to strike in the latter stages of a race should the
opportunity arise.
Since they are in a better position than closers, being near the
front, and have not exerted as much energy as front runners up
to this point in the race, the stalking style is popular and often
successful.
The Racing Post comments will normally use the terms “mid
division” or “midfield” to describe such runners.
Closers
These horses are most likely to sit well off the pace and attempt
to come with one late run.

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You will often see the jockey of a closer or hold up horse pull
their mount back after the start to ensure that the horse is
positioned towards the rear of the pack.
The Racing Post commentary of the race will use terms like
“held up in rear”, “in the rear” or “behind”.
Hold up horses like these win less races than any of the four
categories but should the race be run to suit they can pounce.
When using the in-race comments that are found in the Racing
Post. I find it’s useful to also watch the race in question just to
make sure of the accuracy of the race readers comment.
I should briefly mention. That there are some rare horses

trained by top trainers who can change their running style to
suit the race.
There are also a few great horses who are tactically versatile
that they cannot be put into any single category as they have a
hybrid of running styles.
Pace Scenarios
Now you know the running styles of the various runners you
can then work out how the race will be run.
For example; Will the closers get the strong gallop they need?
If there are a number of front runners in the race, can anyone of
them sit behind the speed and still win?
Here are the four main types of pace scenario:
Fast Pace
This normally means the race has two, three or more racers
who like to lead. If the runners adopt their normal running
styles, they may well go off at too fast a pace. Here’s an
example of such a race from GeeGeez racecards.

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As you will see there are three horses who can be categorised
as leaders in the race.
The chances are this race will be won by the more patiently
ridden runners rather than the leaders.
Given the race is being run over 1m 4f then it’s likely the
leaders will burn themselves out.
Even Pace
Here’s a good example of an even pace race scenario.
The form of such races is usually reliable and the better fancied
or form horses normally come to the fore.

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Uncontested Lead
The first example I gave from geegeez is a good example of

a lone speed scenario with Club Wexford the only likely front
runner in the race. In this case the lone speed horse has a good
chance of winning if the pace scenario works out and they get
an uncontested lead out in front. For anyone wondering, Club
Wexford did make all to win the race at Ayr at 9/2.
Falsely Run
Here’s an example of race that could be falsely run. There are

no definite front runners in the line up and seven of the ten
runners fall into the category of hold up horse.
This is the hardest race to work out. Unless you can find a
horse that is versatile enough to win a potentially tactical
contest.
Such races can often be won by an outsider and the form of

such contests should normally be treated with caution.
Final Thoughts
Now it would be great if every race worked out how the pace
scenarios suggest on paper. However, in the real world,
although many do, some races don’t.

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A front runner may miss the start and find themselves in the
rear for example.
Trainers and Jockeys can also have a big say in how the
horses will be raced.
The jockey/trainer may have different ideas about where they

want to position a horse during a race. They will look at the
competition and decide where they need to be to get the best
from their horse.
In the July Cup Aidan O’Brien decided to have Ten Sovereigns

ridden up with the pace rather than be held up as he had been
at Royal Ascot.
Looking at the pace maps for a race before you look at the form
of the runners is something you should consider. It can save a
lot of wasted time that’s for sure.
When you start to factor in running styles and pace, you start
to look at the race as a whole instead of solely at the individual
runners. Knowing how the race will unfold or the shape of the
race can help identify a horse who could be suited by the pace
of the race or a hot favourite that may not be suited by the likely
pace scenario.
Pace is just one piece of the puzzle, there are many other
factors, but an understanding of a horse’s running style and the
shape of how a race will be run and can give you a vital edge in
the search for profits.
It’s a skill that doesn’t take too long to master either. Once
learned the process can literally take just a few minutes.
Summary
There you have it. Using running style and pace can be an
excellent way of separating runners in what looks a competitive
race. It can also help to identify plenty of nice priced winners
and avoid short priced losers.

Horse Racing Bible
Backing Beaten Favourites

Beaten Favourites: How Do They Fare on Their Next Start?
As we were in National Hunt Season it made sense to

concentrate on the jumping game for now.
To get a decent sample size the stats used are from January
1st, 2016 to December 31st, 2019 and cover National Hunt
races only.
Below we have the results for all beaten favourites on their next
run.
Based on 11,514 results, beaten favourites won 19% of all

races next time out and overall, a hefty 9p in the pound would
have been lost if you had been backing all qualifiers blindly on
their next run.
Whilst the win strike rate of beaten favourites is decent enough

how can we improve both the strike rate and make backing
such runners profitable.
Were They False Favourites?

Following beaten favourites blindly is clearly not recommended
but many punters do. Plenty of words have been written on
the subject and indeed many punters systems are based on
backing beaten favourites.

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Were those beaten favourites, the right favourites or were

they ‘false’ favourites? Now that’s a question that we should
be thinking about. This is of course the basis of my Back/Lay
strategy.
In order to be able to go about answering it. We must first look

at what we mean by a false favourite. What is a false favourite?
Here’s what I consider could be described as false favourites:
• A change in race code - a horse coming from the All-

Weather track cannot be guaranteed to transfer their form
when switched to the grass;
• When the horse running in a handicap but has never

previously won a handicap - then there is no guarantee that
they can actually win off their present handicap mark;
• When a horse is still a maiden;
• When the horse has not won a race on the prevailing going;
• When the horse hasn’t proved they can win over the
distance of the race;
• Was the horse stepping up in class from its last run?
There are of course plenty of other reasons worth considering

as to why a horse could have been a false favourite but
hopefully those six examples give you an idea of what you
should be looking out for. Moving on. The key then is to find
beaten favourites that were true favourites.
Distance Beaten in Last Race

As good a starting point as any is to look at how far the
favourite was beaten in their last race.

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Those results indicate that the further a horse was beaten the
less likely that it will be able to win on its next start.
Beaten favourites that got within 5 lengths of the winner

managed to win almost one in four races next time.
The distance beaten filter looks a good starting point for further
research.
Now let’s remove any beaten favourites that had yet to win
under rules.

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Granted the win strike rate hasn’t improved but the number
of qualifying bets has been reduced and the loss backing all
qualifiers blind is now down to £139.74 to a £1 stake.
Class Move
Looking at those stats it’s clear that we need to focus on beaten

favourites that were not stepping up in class from their last run.

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If we re-run the Horseracebase results database and stick with

qualifiers that were either dropping in grade or running in the
same grade as last time, we get the following results:
The win strike rate is now nearing 30% and for the first time we
have obtained a profit of £95.89 to a £1 level stake. The profit
when backing all the qualifiers to Betfair SP is even bigger at
£350.92.
The filters I have added are logical. I have concentrated on

those beaten favourites that got close to the winner on their
last start, I have not added horses that have yet to win a race
and have just looked at horse’s that have either dropped or are
running in the same grade of race as their last run.
There’s always the danger when carrying out research based

on past results that you accidentally drift into the realms of back
fitting. However, in this instance, there does appear to be one
final logical filter that may be worth looking at and its beaten
favourites that had not won previously on the prevailing going.
Once again rerunning the results database and adding the filter:

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Wins on the Going: 0

We get these following set of results:
We have an AE value of 1.1. This means to bookmaker SP

prices, after deducting over-round you would have won 10p in
every pound bet.
The number of bets has been halved and we have three times
the return on investment. Once again betting qualifiers to Betfair
SP looks the best way to go with profit of £349.02.
You could now of course dig a bit further by looking at those

trainers who excel with horses that meet the above qualifying
criteria.
Here as a point of interest are the trainers with two or more

winners.

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Trainers to note with such qualifiers include Neil Mulholland,

Nigel Twiston-Davies, Alan King, Dr Richard Newland, Nicky
Henderson, Gordon Elliott who all have excellent stats.
If you wanted to go a bit more niche. I think you could do

worse than and back this group of trainer’s qualifying beaten
favourites.

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System: Back Beaten Favourites from the listed trainers , when

beaten by 5 lengths or less, with no wins on going that have
previously won at the same or lower class in National Hunt
races.
Here is the breakdown by year:
The win & place strike rates have been consistent over the four
years and so has the profit.
The A/E stat of 1.43 is excellent and the Chi score indicates it’s
down to the trainer’s skill rather than luck.

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Whilst the Exp/wins figure shows we are working with a decent

sample size.
An average of only 80 bets per year won’t suit everyone but it

could be a useful addition to the betting portfolio.
The trainer results so far in 2020 are:

3 winners from 4 runners 75% +3.73 at BSP
Summary
Hopefully this article has helped to inform Zcoders of some
of the pitfalls of backing beaten favourites but also shown
that backing the ones with right criteria can be a profitable
endeavour.

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Profit from Trainers Having One

Runner on the Card
Here I’m looking at trainers who have just one runner on the
card at a meeting. The purpose of this article is to see how
punters can take advantage of it, to facilitate an improvement in
their betting and of course their profits.
But’s let’s first begin by taking a quick look at some of the costs
of training & owning a racehorse.
The Economics of Training & Owning Racehorses

It costs a lot of money to keep a racehorse in training. After all
it’s not been called the “Sport of Kings” for nothing.
The Racehorse Owners Association (ROA) carried out a survey

in 2015 which revealed that the annual costs of keeping a
racehorse in training were £22,595 on the flat and £16,325 over
jumps.
As Bruce Millington pointed out recently in the Racing Post:
“Training fees vary significantly, with Tim Vaughan, one of the

aforementioned calm ones, charging £37.50 a day and Mark
Johnston, very much not one of the aforementioned calm ones,
setting you back £78 a day, although, unlike Vaughan, your vet
bills are included”.
For the racehorse owner there are training fees, vet fees, farrier
fees. There may even be gallop fees at the likes of Newmarket
& Lambourn. Then there’s the important matter of race entry
fees which can be anything from £20 to £1,000’s for races of
particularly high value.
There are also jockey fees, transport costs to get the horse to
a racecourse and there’s also routine veterinary treatment or
farriery on course: such as a post-race scope, replacing lost
shoes etc.

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Whatever way you cut it. Owning a racehorse is a very

expensive business.
It’s also an expensive business to train a thoroughbred.

Trainers have three main costs: staff, which is of course the
biggest of the lot; then there are weekly outgoings such as feed,
bedding and medication, etc. and fixed overheads such as bills,
rent or mortgage repayments.
Outside the ‘mega’ trainers those with 200+ horses most

trainers don’t make money from the training fees they charge
their owners but from winning prize money or more likely
landing a few good bets during a season.
The One-Track Trainer Method

One thing that has always fascinated me about a trainer’s
method of operation is why they would go to the trouble and
expense of sending just one runner to the track given the costs
I have highlighted.
I remember from my early trips to the local bookies. Looking

at the Sporting Life/Racing Post form plastered on the walls
of the shop and some old lad whispering to me that Trainer A
was sending just one up from Devon to Carlisle and that it must
have a great chance as the trainer had sent one horse all that
way. The horse did win at 5/1, so the old lad’s thought process
was vindicated.
Surely then, if a trainer is sending just one horse to the course.

We should be taking note, or should we?
Would a trainer send a horse on its own, possibly hundreds of

miles from its stable, just for a day out?
Well they could do and there are a few examples as to why this
would occur.
For example: A Yorkshire based trainer could send a horse to

run at say Windsor because the owner(s) are southern based

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and want to see their horse run. Or, the owners may want to
have a runner in one of the big races.
The above cases are a minority though and in the main trainers
send one course to track for a reason. Our job, of course, and
this is the hard bit, is to find what the reason is.
Identifying the Right Trainers

Firstly, though you must identify the right trainers. A very
simple way to do that is to look at a trainer’s record at a course.
You can go to the Racing Post website and look at the track
in question. Here’s a screenshot from the Racing Post for
Plumpton and the top five trainers over the last five seasons:
Gary Moore has had the most winners in the period, but you
would have lost £97.89 to a £1 level stake, so I would avoid
him, The two trainers I would focus on are Chris Gordon &
Sheena West who both have been profitable at Plumpton over
the last five seasons.
Looking at the trainer’s entries for that day: Chris Gordon has
two runners at Plumpton.

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There wouldn’t be any selections at Plumpton, so you would

move onto the next meeting and so on until you find one of
the leading and even more importantly profitable trainers at a
particular course.
A Simple Method
Say Sheena West had just one runner at Plumpton and it was
between 5/1 & 10/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast, you
could simply back it each way.
The simple logic is that you have a profitable trainer at the

track, which has just one runner on the card that day and it’s
reasonably well fancied in the betting.
A simple and quick methodology that will get you winners but
it’s too blunt and probably won’t make you a profit long term.
Mind you I haven’t tried it so I can’t really say for sure. Maybe
you could paper trade it, to see if it does.

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You Must Dig Deeper

As ever to find the real profit we have to dig deeper. Now
backing a horse purely because it’s a trainer’s only runner on
the card that day is committing the punting equivalent of ’hara-
kiri’.
You must dig deeper to find out what type of horse the trainer
does well with at particular course:
• A trainer may do better with their handicappers, rather than

maidens/novices;
• Maybe they do well with a certain age group or have a good

record with 2-year-old newcomers;
• They do well when they book a certain jockey;
• They do better when their runner is in the first three in the

betting forecast;
• Maybe they excel with runners in a certain class at the track.
This is where a database like www.horseracebase.com comes

into its own. You can interrogate the data further to find this
kind of information. For the purpose of this exercise, given the
amount of racing held each year, I’m going to use the Kempton
all-weather track. The results below are from the start of 2016.
Kempton
Handicaps/non-handicaps
Using the useful dig feature on horseracebase. Here are the

top trainers at the track in handicap/non handicap races when
having just one runner on the card.

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The first thing we can see there are some top yards whose sole
runners on the Kempton card should be noted.
Granted not many qualifiers but Roger Charlton, John Gosden,

William Haggas and James Eustace’s handicap qualifiers are
worth backing.
Those four trainers combined have made a profit for the last
four years and I’m sure they will continue to do so in 2020.
Roger Varian’s novice runners at Kempton are also worth

noting.
System: Back Roger Charlton, James Eustace, John Gosden

and William Haggas handicap runners when they have just one
runner on the card at Kempton.

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System: Back Roger Varian runners in novice races when he

has just one runner on the card at Kempton.
You can of course do the same interrogation for each

racecourse in Britain & Ireland.
Finally, out of interest I used the database to see how Sheena

West & Chris Gordon fared when having only one runner on the
card at Plumpton.
They performed rather well with level stakes profits to SP and a

rather cool +75.98 to Betfair SP.
Conclusion:
You can make a profit from trainers sending one runner to the
track but does require a small level of work to do so. If you
see John Gosden has only one runner on the card at Kempton
and that runner is in a handicap race, then you can back those
runners blind and make a profit.
Likewise notice Roger Varian with one runner in a novice

race at the same track and you can cash in without taking into
consideration any other factors.

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Glossary Of Racing Terms

A
Abandoned: A race meeting may be abandoned due to poor
weather conditions. All bets on races that get abandoned are
refunded.
Accumulator: An accumulator bet encompasses a number of

selections, all of which must win for the bet to be successful.
Across the Board: A bet used in North America that combines a

win bet, a place bet and a show bet.
Added Weight: Weight carried by a horse that is over the

amount required by the conditions of a race. Typically due to a
jockey exceeding the weight limit.
All Age Race: A race for all horses aged two years and older.
All Out: When a horse is running at full speed.
All Weather: An artificial racing surface designed to be suitable

for racing in all weather conditions.
Allowance Race: A race in which the required weights to be

carried by the competing horses is determined by factors such
as age, gender and previous performances.
Allowance: Reduction in the required weight to be carried in

accordance with the conditions of a race.
Amateur: A jockey that does not receive fees for riding in races.
Ante-post: Bets placed in advance, predicting the outcome of a

future event. In return for the chance of better odds, punters risk
the fact that stakes are not returned if their selection pulls out or
is cancelled.
Apprentice: A trainee jockey.
At The Post: Horses are said to be at the post when they arrive
at the start.

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B
Back - To bet on a specific horse is to back it. A heavily backed
horse is one with many bets laid on it.
Backed - A ‘backed’ horse is one on which lots of bets have

been placed.
Backed-in - A horse which is backed-in means that bettors have

outlaid a lot of money on that horse, with the result being a
decrease in the odds offered.
Banker - These are horse racing bets where the bettor believes
their selection is (close to) certain to win.
Banker: A horse strongly favored to win a race.
Bar price - Refers to the odds of those runners in a race not

quoted with a price during early betting shows. The bar price is
the minimum odds for any of those selections not quoted.
Bearing In/Out: When a horse deviates from a straight course.
Bet - The amount of money laid, or bet, on a horse.
Betting Ring: The area at a racecourse where the on-course

bookmakers are situated.
Bismarck - A favourite that the bookmakers do not expect to win

or ‘go down’.
Bit: A piece of equipment that is fitted into a horse’s mouth and

attached to the bridle. Helps a jockey to guide and control a
horse.
Bleeder: A horse that often suffers from broken blood vessels

when racing.
Blinkers: A garment fitted to a horse’s head to reduce vision to

the side and focus it to the front.
Book closed - The race is most likely under way and, therefore,
no more bets can be placed.
Book - The range of betting markets we offer for a horse race.

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Bookmaker/Bookie - The person/establishment who takes

punters’ horse race bets and pays out winnings.
Bottle – 2/1.
Boxed In: When a horse gets trapped behind or between other

horses.
Breather: Jockeys may give a horse a breather during a race,

allowing it time to fill its lungs.
Breeder: An individual or organization that breeds racehorses.
Bridle: A piece of equipment that fits over a horse’s head and is

used to control the horse. Holds the bit in the horse’s mouth.
Burlington Bertie - 100/30.
C
Canadian - Also known as a Super Yankee. A Canadian is
a combination bet consisting of 26 bets with 5 selections in
different events. The combination bet is made up of 10 doubles,
10 trebles, five 4-folds and one 5-fold.
Carpet – 3/1
Chalk Player: A bettor that backs mostly favorites.
Chalk: The favorite horse in a race, i.e. the one with the lowest
odds.
Chaser: A horse that runs in steeplechase races.
Claiming Race: A race in which the competing horses are all for
sale until just before the race.
Classic: A race of traditional significance.
Clerk Of The Course: The racecourse official that has overall

responsibility for the course.
Clerk Of The Scales: The racecourse official responsible for

weighing jockeys before and after a race.

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Closer: A horse that runs well towards the end of a race
Colours - The racing silks of the horse owners, as worn by the

jockeys
Colt: An ungelded male horse aged four years or younger.
Combination Bet: A bet that consists of multiple wagers on

multiple selections combined into one.
Combination Forecasts (CFC) - Punters may bet on three or

more horses in a race, of which any two must finish 1st and
2nd in any order to gain any returns. Selecting four horses
effectively means placing 4x3 = 12 separate bets (or “lines”) for
a return if any two of the four selections finish first and second.
Combination Tricasts (CTC) - Similar principle to CFC but

selections are made for first second and third in a race in any
order. For five selections, the punter pays 5x4x3=60 times the
stake, meaning a £2 combination tricast would cost £120 and
would win 2x the odds.
Come in - Winning horse racing bets are said to have ‘come in.’
Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) - The odds for a forecast

bet. The product of each selection’s win odds are multiplied
together automatically
Conditions Race: A type of race in which horses may be

allocated extra weight based on factors such as age, gender
and previous performances.
Conformation: The build and physical structure of a horse.
Connections: The people connected with a horse such as the

owner(s) and the trainer.
Course Specialist - A horse who tends to run well at a particular

track

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D
Daily Double: A bet used in North America where you have to
back the winner in two consecutive races.
Dead Heat: When two or more horses cannot be separated at

the finishing post, resulting in a tie.
Double - A two-bet accumulator: Predicting the winners of two

races, of which both must win to gain any returns.
Draw: The starting position of a horse in the stalls for a flat race.
Drift - The price is said to ‘drift’ if the odds get longer (from 3-1
to 4-1).
Driving: Pushing a horse to its maximum limits.
Dual Forecast: See Exacta.
E
Each Way Bet: A win bet and a place bet combined.
Each Way - In horse racing bets, betting each way means

staking the same amount of money on the selection to win, at
the stated odds, and on the selection placing 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
A ‘£1 each way’ bet would cost £2. The odds obtained for the
place bet are usually a fraction of the win bet odds and depend
on the number of competing horses. If the horse wins, both the
win odds on the win bet and the place odds on the first place
are returned. If the horse finishes second, punters get only the
return on the place part of the bet. Therefore a £10 each way
bet on a horse at 10-1 would return 10x10 = 100 + the stake of
10 = 110 on the win bet, and 10/5=2-1 on the place, the latter
being £30 (i.e. the winnings of 2x10 plus the stake of 10).
Each-way - UK term for betting on a horse to win and/or ‘place’.

An each-way bet is when you have the same amount on the
horse for a win and for a place.

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Earplugs: Equipment that is placed in a horse’s ears to prevent

possible distraction from noise.
Entire Horse: An ungelded horse.
Evens - The fractional odd 1/1. A bet of £10 at evens would win
£10, and your returns would be £20 (including return of initial
stake)
EW or E/W - Each way, see above
Exacta: A bet on which two horses will finish in the top two
positions in a race, in the correct order. Also known in some
countries as dual forecast, exactor, perfecta.
Exactor: See Exacta.
Exotics: A collective term used to describe certain wagers that

are more complex than straight bets.
F
Favourite - The most popular horse in a race from a betting
perspective, which is quoted at the lowest odds because it is
deemed to have the best chance of winning the race.
Field: Collective term for all the horse in a race.
Filly: A female horse aged four years or younger.
Firm: A condition of a turf course; indicates there is little to no

give in the ground.
Fixed-odds betting - Odds are quoted at the time of placing the

bet making clear from the outset the amount which can be won
or lost. Fixed odds may be quoted as SP (starting price) which
may be higher or lower than the odds offered at the time of
placing the bet.
Flat Racing: Racing where there are no obstacles for the horses
to negotiate.
Fold - When preceded by a number, a fold indicates the number

of selections in an accumulator (e.g. 5-Fold = 5 selections).

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Forecast - A bet that involves correctly predicting the 1st and

2nd for a particular event. This bet can be straight, reversed or
permed.
Form - Form refers to the performances of a horse in its

recent races, and in most cases form guides are available for
reference.
Front Runner: A horse who tends to run races from the front, or
close to it.
Full Cover Bet: A bet that combines multiple wagers on multiple

selections so that you don’t need all your selections to win to
get a return.
Furlong: A unit of distance equivalent to 220 yards/660 feet/one

eighth of a mile.
G
Gelding: A male horse that has been neutered.
Going In - When horses are put into the stalls.
Going to Post - When horses are on the way to the start of a

race.
Going: The going describes the condition of the surface at a

race track.
Goliath - Multiple bet consisting of 247 bets (28 doubles, 56

trebles, seventy 4-folds, fifty-six 5-folds, twenty-eight x 6-folds,
eight 7-folds and an 8-fold) involving 8 selections in different
events.
Graded Race: A race of a certain quality. Can be Grade I, II or

III with Grade I being the highest quality.
Group Race: A race of a certain quality. Can be Group 1, 2, or

3, with Group 1 being the highest quality.

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H
Hand: A unit of measure used to describe the height of a horse.
Equal to 4 inches.
Handicap Race: A race where the horses are allocated a weight

to carry as decided by the official Handicappers. The goal is
to level the playing field so all the horses have a theoretically
equal chance of winning.
Handicap Rating: A rating assigned to a horse once it has run

three times, used to determine what weight it will carry in a
handicap race. The better the horse the higher the rating.
Hard: A condition of a turf course; indicates there is no give in

the ground. No longer permitted in UK races
Heinz - A Heinz is a multiple bet consisting of 57 bets involving

6 selections in different events. The multiple bet breakdown is
15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15x4-folds, 6x5-folds and one 6-fold.
Hurdler: A horse that races over hurdles.
I
In the money / frame - Describes the horses in a race that finish
1st, 2nd and 3rd (and sometimes 4th) or the horses on which
money will be paid to bettors, depending on the place terms.
J
Jackpot - A type of bet in which the winners of all the included
races must be selected.
Jockey - The rider of the horse.
Joint-favourites - When a bookmaker cannot separate two

horses for favouritism, they are made joint favourites.
Jolly - The favourite in a race.

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Jump Racing: Racing where there are obstacles for the horses
to negotiate, such as fences and ditches.
Juvenile: A two year old horse in flat racing, and a 3 or 4 year

old in National Hunt racing.
L
Lay - To bet or wager.
Length: An approximate unit of measure used to describe the

distance between horses. For example “he went eight lengths
clear in the final straight”. Equal to the average length of a
horse.
Level Weights: When all horses are carrying equal weight.
Listed Race: A race of slightly lower quality than Group Races

and Graded Races.
Lock: Slang term for a sure winner.
Long-shot (also outsider) - A runner is often referred to as being

a long-shot, because of the fact it is returning high odds and is
therefore deemed to have little chance of winning the race.
Lucky 15: A bet that combines 15 separate wagers on 4

selections.

selections.

selections.
M
Maiden Race: A race for horses (or jockeys in some cases) that
have never won a race.
Maiden: A horse or jockey that has never won a race.
Mare: A female horse aged five years or older.

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Market - The betting available on any event taken as a whole.
Monkey - £500.
Multiple - See accumulator.
Mutuel pool - Short for ‘parimutuel pool’, also known as a tote

pool. Sum of the bets on a race or event, such as the win pool,
daily double pool, exacta pool, etc.
N
Nap - The selection nominated by Racing Correspondents and
Tipsters as their major selection of the day or meeting.
National Hunt: The official term for jump racing in the UK and
Ireland
Nod: The action of a horse lowering its head. Used to describe

a very close finish between two horses. For example “he won
on the nod”.
Non Runner: A horse that was expected to run in a race but is

withdrawn for some reason.
Nose: An approximate measure to describe the distance

between horses, typically used at the end of a race. For
example “he just won it by a nose”. Roughly 5% of one length.
Not Under Orders - On the ‘Off’ of a race the flag is raised, and
any runner withdrawn before the signal is deemed not to have
come ‘Under Starter’s Orders.’
O
Objection: A complaint made by one jockey against another,
relating to some action in a race.
Odds - The bookmakers’ view of the chance of a competitor

winning (adjusted to include a profit). The figure or fraction by
which a bookmaker or totalisator offers to multiply a bettor’s

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stake, which the bettor is entitled to receive (plus his or her own
stake) if their selection wins.
Odds-against - Where the odds are greater than evens (e.g.

5/2). When the bookmaker’s stake is greater than the bettor’s
stake. For example, a horse that is quoted at 4/1 would be odds
against, because if it wins a race, the bookmaker or totalisator
returns £4 for every pound a bettor places on that horse, plus
his or her original outlay.
Oddsmaker - A person who sets the betting odds.
Odds-on - Odds of less than even money. This a bet where you
have to outlay more than you win. For example if a horse is 1/2,
you have to outlay two pounds to win one pound and your total
collect if the horse wins is three pounds. That is made up of
your two pounds and the one pound you win.
Off the Bridle - When the horse is urged on by its jockey.
On The Bridle: A term to describe a horse that is running

comfortably.
On The Nose: Slang term for betting on a horse to win only.
Out of the money - A horse that finishes worse than third.
Outlay - The money a bettor wagers/bets is called his/her

outlay.
Outsider - A horse deemed unlikely to win a particular race.
Overlay - A horse with high odds in comparison with its good

chances of winning.
P
P – Rider Pulled Up
Paddock - The part of the race course incorporating the pre-

parade ring (where horses are paraded before the race) and
winner’s enclosure.

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Parimutuel Betting: A form of betting where all stakes are

pooled and, after deductions, the pool is split between winning
bets. Also known as tote betting.
Parlay: A bet on 4 or more selections in separate races.

All selections must win to get a return. Also known as an
accumulator.
Patent - A multiple bet consisting of seven bets involving three

selections in different events. A single on each selection, plus
three doubles and one treble.
Perfecta: See Exacta.
Permutations - It is possible to perm bets or selections (e.g.

on four selections all the possible doubles could be permed
making 6 bets).
Photo Finish: When two or more horses are so close at the

finishing post that a photo is used to determine the winner.
Place Bet (American Definition): A bet on a specified horse to

finish first or second in a specified race
Place Bet (Rest of World Definition): A bet on a specified horse

to finish in the places (first 2, 3 or 4 positions, depending on
race and number of horses)
Place - In horse racing, it is possible with some bookmakers

to bet on a win or a place. In large fields, the place may be
2nd, 3rd or 4th, in smaller fields, 2nd or 3rd. Odds are naturally
shorter for a place bet than a win bet.
Placepot - A type of bet in which a placed horse in all six

included races must be selected.
Pony - £25.
Post Time: Scheduled starting time for a race.
Pulled Up: When a horse is stopped during a race.
Punt - To bet or a bet (“I had a punt on the 2:15 at Aintree”). A

punter is the person placing the bet.

Horse Racing Bible
Purse: The total amount of prize money awarded for a race.
Q
Quinella: See Reverse Exacta.
R
Refuse: When a horse will not start a race, or will not jump an
obstacle.
Return - The money paid to out for a winning selection: Stake

plus winnings.
Reverse Exacta: A bet on which two horses will finish in the top
two positions in a race, in either order. Also known as reverse
forecast, reverse perfecta, quinella.
Reverse Trifecta: A bet on which three horses will finish in

the top three positions in a race, in any order. Also known as
reverse triactor, combination tricast.
Reverse Forecast - Betting on the first and second horses in a

race, irrespective of the order in which they finish. Punters pay
twice the stake, because it is two bets, meaning a £5 reverse
forecast costs £10. In effect, you are betting on horse ‘X’
winning and horse ‘Y’ coming second, and the reverse of that
bet as well. Winnings will be the combined odds of the wining
horses.
S
Scratch: To remove a horse from a race before it starts.
Selection - The horse backed.
Short Head: An approximate measure to describe the distance

between horses, typically used at the end of a race. For
example “she only won by a short head”. Roughly 10% of one
length.

Horse Racing Bible
Show Bet: A bet used in North America on a specified horse to

finish first, second or third in a specified race.
Silks: The jacket and cap worn by jockeys to represent the

owner of the horse they are riding.
Single - A bet on the exact score of two teams playing a series

of games, given that every win awards the winning team with 1
point.
Sire: the father of a horse
SP: See Starting Price.
Sprint: A short race run at a quick pace. Typically less than one
mile.
Stake - The amount of money bet.
Stallion: A male horse used for breeding.
Stalls - Stalls are the row of compartments designed to help

give all the runners in a flat race an even start.
Starting Price: The final betting odds in place at the time a race
starts. Commonly abbreviated to SP.
Stayer: A horse with good stamina that tends to do well in long

races.
Steeplechase: A type of race in which the horses have to jump

over obstacles.
Stud Book: A registry of Thoroughbred horses. Maintained by

the relevant club or association in each region.
Stud: A farm where horses are bred. Also another name for a
stallion.
Super Heinz: A bet that combines 120 separate wagers on 7

selections.
Super Yankee: A bet that combines 26 separate wagers on 5

selections. Also known as Canadian.

Horse Racing Bible
T
Thoroughbred: The breed of horse used for most competitive
horse racing.
Through The Card - When a jockey, a particular number,

a punter, the favourites, or a racing tipster etc, has been
successful at every event at a particular meeting, they are
described as having gone ‘through the card’.
Tic-Tac - The sign language used by UK bookmakers to

communicate with each other at track-side.
Tote Betting: See Parimutuel Betting:
Tote Return - All the money bet on the Tote for an event is split
between all the punters who backed the winner (form of pool
based betting system with a jackpot incentive).
Tote - The organisation appointed to receive bets and supply

dividends in proportion to the amount of the investment. A body
in the UK set up to operate pool-betting on all racecourses.
Treble - A bet consisting of three selections, all of which must

win for the wager/bettor to be successful.
Tricast - A wager/bet picking the first three finishers in exact

order. The dividend is computer calculated based on starting
prices amongst other things
Trifecta: A tote bet on which three horses will finish in the top
three positions in a race, in the correct order. Also known as
triactor, tricast. Dividend is calculated by pool betting rules.
Trip - The distance of the race.
Triple Crown: A series of classic or famous races. Different

regions have their own Triple Crowns.
Trixie - Trixies consist of 4 bets involving 3 selections in

different events. The bet includes 3 doubles and 1 treble. A
minimum of 2 of your selections must be successful to gain any
returns.

Horse Racing Bible
U
Unseated Rider - When a horse does not fall, but causes
enough problems for the jockey to part company
W
Walk-Over - Walk-overs occur when only one participant runs in
the race. In order to collect the prize money the participant must
go through the normal procedure. For bet-settling purposes, the
winner of a walk-over is considered a non-runner.
Win Bet: A straight bet on a specified horse to win a specified

race.
Win Double: See Double.
Win Treble: See Treble.
Y
Yankee - A multiple bet consisting of 11 bets (six doubles, four
trebles and one four-fold) on four selections in different events.
Yankee: A bet that combines 11 separate wagers on 4

selections.
Yearling: A horse aged one year.
Yielding: A condition of a turf course; indicates wet ground with

plenty of give.

Horse Racing Bible
Useful Tools
Dutching Calculator
https://www.thestakingmachine.com/DutchCalculator.php
Odds Comparision Sites

www.OddsChecker.com
https://www.oddsportal.com/

Horse Racing Bible
Epilogue
Hello zCode,
Hopefully you find this guide useful if you wish to develop an

interest in horse racing or if not at least find something in here
that you find of interest or use in your own betting. I’m not
generally to be found posting in the bright lights of the wall
but instead, inhabit the crypt, otherwise known as the forums,
where I post my selections on Horse Racing (naturally), Tennis
and Soccer.
Along the way I also try to expound on how and why I come
to certain conclusions and selections, so you will find posts
explaining the trends on a certain race, why I am laying the
favourite in this race or the results of some research. This may
be of interest or not, but many a time I have read posts in other
threads that I myself may not have any interest in, but contain
nuggets of useful information, ideas or angles that may be of
use further down the line in some unrelated research. A perfect
example of this was a remark by, if I remember correctly,
Brenden, that “Pro’s bet numbers, bears bet trends”. Unrelated
a the time to anything I was doing, but popped into my mind
when I was researching the finishing position of horses in races
compared to their odds. I reversed how I was looking at the
information in front of me, from horses first (the trends) to odds
first (the numbers), this encouraged me to dig deeper and come
up with a whole new system of odds profiling races.
Zcode is more than just the Wall or the Forum or even the
Guides, it is the sum of all its members, their openness,
transparency and helpfulness to each other.
Happy investing all!

Horse Racing Bible
Horse Racing LineReversals –

Exclusive Zcode Tool
You will be able to follow line moves of major races in real time,
see the odds change, sharp money moves and smart money
signals. Enjoy
Check it here https://zcodesystem.com/vipclub/linereversals.php

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What are some methods discussed for selecting horses?

What are some methods discussed for selecting horses?

What does the author say about backing the top market choices?

What does the author say about backing the top market choices?

E-Sport Investing Bible

Copyrig ht Zcode System E-Sports 1

The Handicapping Process: An Approach

In this guide I offer a few thoughts on the handicapping process:

Whilst on the subject of definitions, let me touch on what I’m

Rather, I am trying to eke out a long-term profit from backing

So, here follows an approach to the handicapping process. It is

Why we need a handicapping process

Copyrig ht Zcode System Esports 3

A majority of horse racing punters have been conditioned into

Market Runs Wins Win % SP ROI

As can be seen, the second and third market choices win

For many, bizarrely, the need for winners is predominant. A

Copyrig ht Zcode System Esports 4

First, Some Last Words

Horse races are loose forms of organised chaos. An average

These kinds of ‘chaos variables’ are generally not factored

No system is perfect, no angle immune to the bettors’ scourge,

For ultra-contrarians like myself, the best time to get involved

Copyrig ht Zcode System Esports 5

An example will help.

Betting Angle A has a 3% ROI on more than 10,000 selections.

What if Angle A identifies 40 bets per day? What if the average

The downswings with an approach like that could run to many

We have different bankrolls, different appetites to risk, different

That diversity is to be celebrated: it ultimately means we’ll land

It is very well worth taking a few minutes to think about your

What to look for in a good system/angle

Copyrig ht Zcode System Esports 6

day. You’ll immediately feel uncomfortable with the different

Any research you undertake needs to be mindful of how you

A good system, then, will speak to you personally in terms of its

Aside from the personal elements, there are generic precursors

LOGIC LOGIC LOGIC

It is never enough to reason, “well it’s profitable”. If you can’t

It might be fine to have an angle based around big trainers’

Likewise, trainer angles where there are gaps in the months

Copyrig ht Zcode System Esports 7

Less is (usually) more

One thing that strikes a chord is..

“...the idea that too little information is no good but so is too

Betting angles should be simple in the main, predicated

Be wary of small sample sizes

So what to do? Two things...

1 Seek a happy medium

Somewhere in between those two unsatisfactory sample size

Copyrig ht Zcode System Esports 8

from ten runners looks fantastic, but how sustainable is that?

One thing we can do in such situations is to widen out the

2 Proceed with caution

“Wise men say only fools rush in.

But I can’t help falling in love with you”

So sung the immortal Elvis Presley, and he wasn’t wrong. Once

Such angles are prime contenders to be considered in the

It doesn’t take long in most cases to see whether the qualifier