Global Crossing (Condensed)
Global Crossing (Condensed)
Global Crossing (Condensed)
“We are building the world’s first seamless fiber optic network – con-
necting oceans, continents, and cities of the world and setting new
world standards in bandwidth capacity, technology, and pricing. Global
Crossing is creating a global information highway for use by all who
live on this planet.” Gary Winnick, Founder. Annual Report 1998.
Copyright © 2006 by Richard P. Rumelt. This case may be freely copied for instruc-
tional use at the University of California. This case was written from public docu-
ments and interviews with various industry observers and experts. It was prepared
by Professor Richard P. Rumelt with the assistance of Olivier Costa, M.B.A. class of
2002, The Anderson School at UCLA.
The Anderson School at UCLA 2 POL-2002-01
As 1998 drew to a close, Gary Winnick, Chairman of Global Crossing, could look back
on two years of stupendous achievement. In that time he had guided a project to
build a new state of the art transatlantic fiber optic cable from dream to reality. The
cable, the AC-1, was operational, and sales of capacity had more than returned the
cost of its construction.
The next step seemed obvious to most observers—“do it again!” With plans under-
way for AC-2, and cables in the Pacific and South Atlantic, growth seemed assured.
The more complex questions arose around the construction or acquisition of terres-
trial networks. Could Global Crossing continue its focus on building undersea capac-
ity and selling it to giant telecommunications carriers? Or, did it have to integrate
forward, buying or building terrestrial networks that linked its cables with cities, and
cities with one another, and offering corporate customers end-to-end global network
services?
The stock market seemed to be giving Winnick the go ahead to build more network.
Analysts described Global Crossing as an “emerging” attack carrier, with low unit
costs and great potential to take business away from sleepy old-line telcos. On De-
cember 31, 1998, Global Crossing’s common stock closed at $45.75, implicitly valu-
ing the company’s common equity at $18.8 billion.
Winnick knew that he and his team had great entrepreneurial talent and zeal, but he
also knew that they had no proprietary technology, had no established brand name,
and had no established base of customers. Instead, their enterprise was harnessed
to a number of titanic forces that were reshaping telecommunications. These were
(a) deregulation and new competition, (b) the rise of the Internet, (c) the diffusion of
personal computers, (d) dramatic advances in fiber optic technology, and (e) an
ebullient capital market, especially for new technology-based ventures. To chart the
strategy of Global Crossing, Winnick had to understand these forces and attempt to
foresee their interplay and their future trajectories.
original NSFNet moved to a new architecture and government subsidy and control
ceased. Exhibit 5a shows the NSFNet count of terabytes per month moved over their
backbone, which was thought to account for about 70% of total Internet traffic. It
shows traffic doubling each year through 1994. Data for 1996-98 are for the major
backbone carriers that replaced NSFNet. Exhibit 5b graphs this information on a
logarithmic scale; 1995 is not plotted because data for that year were unavailable.
Traffic data for periods later than 1995 were difficult to obtain, as private companies
carried the bulk of Internet traffic. Consequently, beginning in 1995, opinions about
the growth of the Internet varied widely. For example, some AT&T analysts thought
that backbone Internet traffic in the U.S. increased from about 1.5 to 3.0 petabytes
per month in the 12 months ending December 1997. This would represent a dou-
bling in one year, or a growth rate of 100% per year. By contrast, John Sidgmore of
MCI WorldCom’s UUNet was widely quoted as saying that “Internet bandwidth de-
mand doubles every three to four months." Doubling every three months implies ex-
pansion by a factor of 16 each year, or 1500% growth per annum. Doubling every
four months implies expansion by a factor of 8 each year, or 700% growth per an-
num.
A very influential statement on Internet traffic growth appeared in a report to the
Department of Commerce, “The Emerging Digital Economy,” posted on the Depart-
ment’s website on April 15, 1998. On page 2, the report stated “Traffic on the Inter-
net has been doubling every 100 days.”2 This and other statements in the report
spread rapidly, becoming the foundation for hundreds of articles and studies. Among
the most frequently repeated statements in the report were these:3
1. Fewer than 40 million people around the world were connected to the
Internet during 1996. By the end of 1997, more than 100 million peo-
ple were using the Internet.
2. Cisco Systems closed 1996 having booked just over $100 million in
sales on the Internet. By the end of 1997, its Internet sales were run-
ning at a $3.2 billion annual rate.
3. In 1996, Amazon.com, the first Internet bookstore, recorded sales of
less than $16 million. In 1997, it sold $148 million worth of books to
Internet customers. One of the nation’s largest book retailers, Barnes
and Noble, launched its own online bookstore in 1997 to compete with
Amazon for this rapidly growing online market.
4. In January 1997, Dell Computers was selling less than $1 million of
computers per day on the Internet. The company reported reaching
daily sales of $6 million several times during the December 1997 holi-
day period.
Another influential forecast was Forrester’s 1998 graph showing B2B e-commerce
revenues growing at 100% per year from 1998 to 2003, and B2C e-commerce grow-
ing at 68% per year over the same period.
2
The source was a 1997 “White Paper” by Inkotomi, promoting their network caching technol-
ogy. Inkotomi, in turn, quoted Mike O’Dell, chief scienties of UUNET, one of the largest Inter-
net backbone providers.
3
The Emerging Digital Economy, U.S. Department of Commerce, www.ecommerce.gov
The Anderson School at UCLA 4 POL-2002-01
Lehman went on to conclude that “capacity glut concerns are overblown” and that
“new entrants, with low share and low cost position, we believe, have attackers ad-
vantages (i.e., they can outrun pricing pressures).”
Demand for the transatlantic link between the U.S. and Europe was also forecast to
be mainly driven by Internet growth. Global Crossing executives forecast that de-
mand on this route would rise from 10.5 Gbps to 233 Gbps in 2003, a factor of 22 in
5 years, implying an annual average growth rate of 86%. To put their forecast in
perspective, Global Crossing executives liked to compare their “factor of 22 in five
years” to the five-year factors implied by Internet growth forecasts from Forrester
(factor of 100), WorldCom Chairman Bernie Ebbers (factor of 1000), and John Sidg-
more of MCI (factor of 10,000). In one 1998 study, Internet traffic consultant Tom
4
Garrahan, Bath, and Stricker, “Emerging Network Companies: Exploiting Industry Paradigm
Shifts,” Lehman Brothers, October 27, 1998.
The Anderson School at UCLA 5 POL-2002-01
Soja reported that traffic under the Atlantic had recently been growing at 100% per
quarter for two quarters.
might be achieved. Beyond that, it seemed that new breakthroughs would be re-
quired. Theorists believed that the ultimate capacity of a single fiber strand was in
the area of 50-100 Tbps, but no one had a clear picture of how that would be
achieved. Exhibit 6b shows Global Crossing’s prediction for the future evolution of
single-strand fiber data rates.
A key economic aspect of WDM was that it allowed older fiber to be upgraded by
changing the head-end equipment and the regenerators. The costs of WDWM
equipment varied with the number of wavelengths being carried and the data rate
being handled per wavelength. Taking equipment handling 1x2.5 technology (1
wavelength at 2.5 Gbps) as having a cost index of 1.0, 40x2.5 technology had a cost
of 8 and 80x10 technology had a cost of 22.
5
A self-healing cable loop had at least two separate legs. Each leg carried traffic in both di-
rections, each direction handled by a separate fiber strand. Traffic in one direction on each leg
was kept at 50% of capacity or less so that the other leg could take over in case of an outage.
Rated capacity, therefore, refers to one-half of the full capacity of one leg in one direction.
The Anderson School at UCLA 7 POL-2002-01
Suppliers
Cable was laid by specialized vessels. There were about 30 of these ships in the
world. The largest could install thousands of kilometers of cable in a single operation
and cost upwards of $100 million to build and launch. The deep holds in such ships
were filled over a period of weeks and cable was laid at a speed of about 7 knots.
Cable could be placed in depths up to 7000 meters. Closer to shorelines, cable had
to be ploughed under to protect it from trawlers and anchors, forcing a reduction in
speed to about ½ knot.
Cable ships used computers that were programmed to follow a specific route using
GPS navigation. The routes were based on comprehensive topographical analysis and
try to avoid undersea canyons, earthquake faults and fishing areas. The cable ships
were huge and carried some of the heaviest winches in existence. They also de-
ployed undersea plows to bury cable near shorelines, and robotic submarines to find
6
An IRU was an indefeasible right of use, and had a lifetime of 25 years. The owner of the
IRU had the rights to 1 STM-1 of capacity for 25 years. The owner was also obligated to pay
annual maintenance fees.
The Anderson School at UCLA 8 POL-2002-01
and repair cable damage. Laying a transatlantic cable (one-way) took about 2-3
months.
The three major cable installation firms were also manufacturers of submarine ca-
bles. KDD Submarine Cable Systems, part of the Japanese KDD Group, was an im-
portant actor in the Pacific region. Alcatel Submarine Networks and Tyco Submarine
Systems dominated the Atlantic region. Tyco (TSSL) had been spun-off from AT&T
in 1997.
Cables were also manufactured by firms that did not participate in installation activi-
ties. Among these firms were Fujitsu, NEC, and Pirelli. Fiber was manufactured by
Corning Glass, Lucent, Alcatel and Sumimoto. Marine maintenance and repair was
dominated by Cable and Wireless Marine.
Global Crossing
After graduating from Long Island University with a business degree, Gary Winnick’s
first job was selling restaurant equipment. He soon left that job behind, joining
Burnham & Company (a precursor to Drexel) on Wall Street as a trainee. After some
divergence of opinion with his superior (Michael R. Milken), he left Drexel in 1985 to
start his own venture and investment company: Pacific Asset Holdings. The company
was later renamed The Pacific Capital Group.
Pacific bought RB Furniture and Ortho Mattress in 1988. Both firms were bankrupt
within three years. Pacific did better with OpTel, Inc., a company providing satellite
TV services to apartment buildings. Having invested $12 million, the firm was sold
for $100 million to Le Group Videotron. Pacific Capital, along with Morgan Stanley,
Goldman Sachs, and Union Labor Life Insurance bought Playa Vista, the site of Ste-
ven Spielberg’s planned DreamWorks development in West Los Angeles. Unfortu-
nately, environmental and political issues kept the development from fruition.
In 1997, Pacific Capital Group was directed by Gary Winnick, Abbot Brown, Barry
Porter, and David Lee. The four had learned of a venture being planned by William
Carter and Wallace Dawson, called “Atlantic Crossing.” Carter had been with AT&T
for 30 years, including having been CEO of AT&T Submarine Systems Inc, AT&T’s
submarine cable subsidiary (later spun-off to Tyco). Carter had championed the idea
of a new wholly-AT&T Atlantic cable. Top management had, however rejected the
idea. Carter, together with Dawson, who also had been a manager in the Submarine
Systems Division, left AT&T to pursue this vision. In addition to the basic idea, they
brought with them a turnkey contract with AT&T for the construction and mainte-
nance (over 25 years) of the proposed cable project.
Carter and Dawson had talked to GE Capital about financing the project, but the Pa-
cific Capital Group worked more quickly to put together a financing package for the
venture. Once again, Union Labor Life Insurance played an important role and
Winnick also turned to the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, where former
Drexel colleagues had senior positions. All told, $75 million in equity capital was
raised ($17 million directly from Winnick and $3 million from his three partners at
Pacific Capital). Senior notes for $150 million, $100 million in preferred stock, and a
$410 million line of credit with a syndicate of banks completed the financing deal.
The Anderson School at UCLA 9 POL-2002-01
Global Crossing (then Global Telesystems) was formed to hold Atlantic Crossing, with
Gary Winnick as its Chairman.
The first CEO of Global Crossing was Jack Scanlon, formerly president of Motorola’s
Cellular Networks and Space sector. Scanlon had 24 years of experience in tele-
communications with AT&T and Bell Labs. William Carter, the original champion of
Atlantic Crossing, took charge of network development at Global Crossing.
The AC-1
On March 20, 1997, Global Crossing announced its plans for the AC-1. This new At-
lantic cable would connect Brookhaven NY to Whitesands Bay (western UK), continu-
ing on to Sylt (Germany), and looping back to Brookhaven. Exhibit 7 shows the ca-
ble’s route. The total route distance would be 8,886 miles (14,300 km). The cable
carried 4 pairs of fiber, contained 258 repeaters, and was designed for a physical life
of 25 years. Each fiber on AC-1 was rated to carry 10 Gbps—four wavelengths each
carrying 2.5 Gbps. With four pairs in the cable, the maximum capacity was 40
Gbps.7 AC-1 was designed to be a self-healing ring: it crossed the Atlantic twice,
and each side of the loop was available to pick up the traffic on the other should
there be a cut or other failure. Consequently, each side of the loop could only be
loaded to one-half of rated capacity: thus, the two sides of the loop together had a
rated capacity of 40 Gbps.
It was anticipated that the capacity could easily be doubled by the end of 1999
through WDM techniques, for a total rated capacity of 80 Gbps, yielding a planned
sales capacity of 512 STM-1 circuits.8
The initial construction of AC-1 was budgeted at $667 million. With accrued interest,
the capital cost of the project was $750 million. The upgrade to double its capacity
was budgeted at $52 million. Membership in the Atlantic Cable Maintenance Agree-
ment would cost about $30 million annually. Other expenses associated with the op-
eration of the cable might add another $20 million to annual expenses.
Breaking down the $667 million cost of the AC-1, about $175 million was for the fi-
ber cable itself, $225 million for the repeaters, $87 million for cable installation, $50
million for the landing stations (rights plus construction), $90 million for landing-
station head-end electronics.
In looking to future cables, one undersea cable executive commented “A transatlan-
tic cable seems to cost about $750 million—looking ahead, the capabilities grow, but
the total cost of the project doesn’t change that much.”
Tyco Submarine System Ltd. (TSSL) was to provide Operations, Administration and
Maintenance (OA&M) support on behalf of AC-1 for a term of eight years following
the commencement of commercial operations. There were two sequential options for
contract renewal with TSSL, each covering 8-1/2 years, so that the full 25-year life
of the cable was potentially covered. As of December 31, 1997, Global Crossing was
committed under the initial AC-1 OA&M Agreement to make payments totaling ap-
proximately $263 million.
7
Capacity was rated in one direction. A fiber pair could actually carry up to 10 Gbps in both
directions simultaneously.
8
80 Gbps/155.52 = 514.5. Selling 512 STM-1 circuits left 2.5 for systems management and
spot rental.
The Anderson School at UCLA 10 POL-2002-01
On May 26, 1998, AC-1 began carrying voice and data communications, increasing
the total capacity in service under the Atlantic Ocean by 65% (see Exhibit 10). Early
on, the cable had problems: shunt faults were reported by the repeaters, the under-
sea sand banks around the Whitesands landing site kept shifting and exposing the
cable to trawlers. But these early teething problems were solved and the demand
for capacity grew rapidly. By September, 1998, demand for capacity across the At-
lantic had already exceeded internal forecasts, triggering an acceleration of the
planned upgrade from 40 Gbps to 80 Gbps.
"The demand for bandwidth across the Atlantic is being driven by the European
growth of the Internet, multinational Intranets and e-commerce," said Global Cross-
ing’s CEO Jack Scanlon, in late 1998. "By accelerating the AC-1's capacity upgrade
by 18 months, we are confident that we will be able to meet this increased level of
demand," Scanlon added.
Telegent were positioned as “attack” companies. They were widely seen as having
radically new business models, quick execution, low prices, and cutting-edge tech-
nology. For example, a Morgan Stanley Dean Witter reported stated: 9
We believe natural selection will not only weed out the slow moving dinosaurs
of the telecom industry—those that are still munching on the succulent leaves
of 45% EBITDA margins, unaware that the velociraptors of the industry are
devouring them—but will also create an almost limitless range of species and
sub-species . . .
An additional aspect of the business environment was a large appetite for stock in
new-wave telecom firms, especially Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). In 1997, there
were 27 emerging telecom equity IPOs which raised over $3.6 billion; Qwest alone
counted for $300 million.
Global Crossing chose to work with Salomon Smith Barney for its IPO, dealing di-
rectly with its “kingmaker” analyst/banker, Jack Grubman.
During the period leading up to the IPO, progress was rapid. By April 21, Global
Crossing had signed $400 million in capacity purchase agreements (CPAs). By June
30, total CPAs on AC-1 were $550 million, representing 19% of total rated capacity.
At the same time, management firmed up its plans for further undersea cable pro-
jects. By the time of the IPO it had signed construction and/or initial debt arrange-
ments for three additional cables: Mid-Atlantic Crossing (MAC), Pan-American Cross-
ing (PAC), and Pacific Crossing (PC-1). MAC would connect Brookhaven with Florida
and the U.S. Virgin Islands in the Caribbean. PAC would connect Grover Beach (Cali-
fornia), Mexico, Panama, and Venezuela, eventually linking to MAC. PC-1 would
connect Grover Beach to Japan, with a return loop to Harbor Pointe, Oregon. Ex-
hibit 10 shows the expected cost and capacities of these cable projects.
On August 14, 1998, Global Crossing completed its initial public offering of common
stock to the public at $19 per share, raising $399 million. The stock closed that day
at $25.5 per share, implying a total market capitalization of $5.15 billion.
By December 31, 1998, aggregate CPAs for the AC-1 had reached $950 million, rep-
resenting 35 percent of its capacity of 512 STM-1s. The financial results for the
twelve months ending on that date are shown in Exhibits 13a and 13b. Global Cross-
ing’s annual report for 1998 featured a glowing essay by telecommunications-Guru
George Gilder, stating that Global Crossing was a juggernaut riding the bandwidth
explosion to a position of dominance in the new “worldwide web of glass and light.”
[Exhibit 11]. The stock price of $45.75 implied an enterprise equity value of $18 bil-
lion.
Backhaul
Although Global Crossing’s initial intention was to be an undersea carrier, the prob-
lem of backhaul kept management involved in terrestrial network issues. “Backhaul”
was a term used to describe the connections between a cable landing site and a na-
tional network. As a prime example, the busiest transatlantic traffic route was be-
tween New York City and London. AC-1, however, did not directly link these cities.
It connected a shoreline spot in New York State to a beach in the western tip of Eng-
land. Backhaul capacity from Whitesands to London, purchased from British Telecom
or NTL, might cost a customer an additional $2.25 million.10 And in the U.S., back-
9
The Competitive Edge, February 5, 1998.
10
This included Global Crossing’s margin of 10-20%.
The Anderson School at UCLA 12 POL-2002-01
haul from Brookhaven to New York City, purchased from suppliers like LightPath or
Cablevision, might add another $500,000 to the customer’s cost. This meant that on
the NYC-London route, 30% or more of the customer’s costs were backhaul.
Global Crossing’s technical staff estimated that the backhaul from Whitesands to
London should cost about $500,000 per STM-1 to build from scratch. Management,
therefore, believed that both the company and its customers were being “held-up”
by backhaul suppliers, particularly in Europe. To deal with this issue, Global Crossing
began to see a need to own terrestrial network. The first step in this direction was
the agreement with Unisource. The second was taken early in the spring of 1998:
Global Crossing swapped four STM-1s on the AC-1 in exchange for capacity commit-
ments on Qwest’s terrestrial Metro Capacity Fiber Network. Qwest's planned domes-
tic 16,285 mile fiber network would serve 125 U.S. cities.
In October, 1998, Global Crossing announced the development of Pan European
Crossing, a fiber optic network that would link 18 European cities11 with the U.S., and
through its undersea cables, cities in Asia and South America.
Competition
Planning for AC-2 began in 1999. In addition to Level 3, other firms had made plans
and commitments to capacity on the trans-Atlantic run. The Columbus-III (consor-
tium of European telcos together with WorldCom) connected Florida to Spain and
Sicily with a capacity of 40 Gbps. It was scheduled to activate by December, 1999.
Yellow was a project jointly financed by Global Crossing and Level 3 Communica-
tions. The new cable would connect Brookhaven, NJ, with Whitesands, England, the
same points connected by the initial leg of AC-1. However, Yellow would follow a
different ocean route, had a higher design capacity, and would work with AC-1 on
self-healing. Yellow would contain 8 pairs, had a designed capacity of 1,280 Gbps,
with an initial starting capacity of 80 Gbps. Global Crossing would own one-half of
the cable; the other half of the cable would be owned by Level 3 Communications,
which was also taking the lead in its construction. Global Crossing’s half was called
AC-2, and was scheduled to start operations in late 2000.
Due to enter service by the end of 2000, TAT-14 was the most recent cable from the
standard consortium. Four fiber pairs, 16 wavelengths, and a bandwidth per wave-
length of 10 Gbps would give a total capacity of 640 Gbps. The self-healing loop
connection would be between NJ, UK, France, Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany.
Total cost was estimated at $1.5 billion.
FLAG was a privately funded cable project, intended to go “around the world.” Its
first stages connected Europe to the Middle East. The FLAG Atlantic leg (FA-1) was
scheduled to be completed by early 2001, and would have a capacity of 2,400 Gbps.
Project Oxygen was more uncertain. Led by New Jersey entrepreneur Neil Tagare,
Oxygen was to cost $10 billion and to link the world with 186,000 km of fiber cable.
Its plans for the transatlantic route were a 2,560 Gbps cable. Rumblings from other
potential competitors were also in the air.
11
Paris, Brussels, Antwerp, Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Hamburg, Hanover, Dusseldorf, Cologne,
Frankfurt, Strasbourg, Zurich, Lyon, Marseilles, Turin, Milan, Copenhagen, and London.
The Anderson School at UCLA 13 POL-2002-01
Exhibit 1
GLOBAL CROSSING
Metric Prefixes for Multiples
(Defined by the International Standards Organization)
Exhibit 2
GLOBAL CROSSING
The Electromagnetic Spectrum By Powers of 10
Visible light actually extends from the deep red (770 nm) to the violet (390 nm). There were
three “windows” of wavelengths commonly used in fiber optic communications systems.
These were 800-850 nm, 1275-1325 nm, and 1500-1550 nm, all in the infrared: close to, but
outside the range of human vision.
The Anderson School at UCLA 15 POL-2002-01
Exhibit 3
GLOBAL CROSSING
Telecommunications Industry Measures of Data Rate
Exhibit 4
GLOBAL CROSSING
One Page Summary of Communications Theory
Input Output
As frequency increases
beyond some point,
output diminishes.
Output
10 log10
Input
3 db
Bandwidth
Frequency
1 Ghz
1 nanosecond
1 Ghz bandwidth
means that the
electrical signal can
only change direction 1 Ghz Signal
this quickly. If one
attempts to send
signals with more
"curvature" in them,
the sharp curves wil
30 cm
not be transmitted.
1 1 0 1
Digital signals can be
sent as pulses. The
maximum pulse rate
is set by the limits on
"curvature"---the 1 Gbps
bandwith of the Spectral
channel. Efficiency = 1
11 01 00 10
If the sender and 11
receiver can resolve
different intensity 10
levels, signals can be 01
coded to increase the
bit-rate 00 2 Gbps
Spectral
Efficiency = 2
Exhibit 5
GLOBAL CROSSING
Growth in Internet Traffic: Backbone Traffic
Year Terabytes/month
1990 1.0
1991 2.0
1992 4.4
1993 8.3
1994 16.3
1995 ?
1996 1,500
1997 2,500 – 4,000
1998 5,000 – 8,000
Exhibit 5b
GLOBAL CROSSING
100000
10000
1000
100
10
1
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year
Source: Coffman and Odlyzko, “Internet Growth: Is There a Moore’s Law” for Data
Traffic, AT&T Labs Working Paper, 2001.
The Anderson School at UCLA 18 POL-2002-01
Exhibit 6a
GLOBAL CROSSING
Advances in Fiber Transport Capacity
1000
WDM Fiber
100
10
TDM Fiber
1
0.1 Ethernet
0.01
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Exhibit 6b
GLOBAL CROSSING
Advances in Data Rates per Fiber Optic Pair
Bit Rate
Year Gbps
1988 0.28
1990 0.42
1992 0.56
1994 2.5
1996 10
1998 40
2000 160
Exhibit 7
GLOBAL Crossing
The AC-1 Project
The AC-1 consisted of two separate legs, each with a capacity of 40 Gbps in each di-
rection, giving a total of 160 Gbps in total capacity on both legs in both directions.
However, rated capacity of the system (both legs) was 40 Gbps because cable ca-
pacity was stated in one-direction only and because each leg was kept below 50%
capacity so it could take over the traffic from the other leg in case of an outage (self-
healing action).
The Anderson School at UCLA 20 POL-2002-01
Exhibit 8
GLOBAL CROSSING
Planned Network as of December 31, 1998
†
RFS is the date the cable was to be Ready For Service
*
Backhaul capacity refers to terrestrial networks connecting undersea cables with cit-
ies in the United States and Europe.
Traffic in Gbps
All Un- Transatlantic All Un-
dersea Data dersea
Year Voice Data
1997 10 6
1998 11 10.5 13
1999 12 30 41
2000 13 48.8 75
2001 15 68.4 292
2002 18 128.6 518
2003 20 232.7 992
2004 23 ? 1754
2005 27 ? 3241
Exhibit 10
GLOBAL CROSSING
Expected Data Capacity on the Transatlantic route.
Exhibit 11
GLOBAL CROSSING
Excerpt from Global Crossing 1998 Annual Report to Shareholders
George Gilder, perhaps the most respected commentator writing about the telecommunications revolution,
believes Global Crossing plays a pivotal role in that change. We have excerpted the following text from an
essay by Mr. Gilder that appeared late in 1998 in the influential Gilder Technology Report.
Peter Drucker has said that the largest profits go to the company that provides the
crucial missing element that completes a system. The crucial missing elements in the
global Internet are last-mile bandwidth and undersea fiber. The crucial undersea
bandwidth will be supplied by Global Crossing.
Bandwidth Explosion
A pure Telecosm play, Global Crossing artfully exploits the defining abundance of the
era—the bandwidth explosion of wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) over fiber
optic thread - to bypass fragmented national networks with their overloaded switches
and optoelectronic converters and their multi-layered tariffs. Tying together a global
fiber network among the world’s largest cities, it transcends the technical muddle of
hybrid networks and the regulatory briar patch of national telopolies and consortia.
Using a centralized operations and maintenance support system, it will offer an inte-
grated global network, with one-stop sales and service, connecting Europe, the U.S.,
Asia, and Latin America. Rather than leaving its customers stranded on the beach to
make deals with local telcos, Global Crossing will complement its undersea facilities
with terrestrial ramps directly into more than 100 major urban areas. With connec-
tions through Panama, Global Crossing will be able to link London to Tokyo without
offloading the traffic to any outside carriers or toll taker. Rather than requiring an
ISP (Internet Service Provider), for example, to contract with a phone company in
London to reach a trans-Atlantic cable and then contract with a telco in the U.S. to
cross the American continent, before contracting with yet another carrier or two to
connect to the party in Tokyo, Global Crossing’s customers will have a one- stop
shop. They will even be able to shift bandwidth from one to another span of the
Global Crossing Network.
A Four Millionfold Advance
According to GTG analysis (based on the total capacity in bits of the entire network if
filled to the brim with bits), terrestrial fiber bandwidth has risen some 2,000-fold
since 1990. Turbocharged by WDM, current plans suggest another 2000 times rise
over the next three years. This means a four millionfold advance between 1990 and
2001 during a period when Internet traffic overall will have also risen several million-
fold (from 1990s hundreds of gigabytes per month to hundreds of petabytes per
month). These are admittedly raw estimates—give or take a hundred petabytes—but
they convey the general picture. Meanwhile, undersea capacity increased some 42-
fold since 1990 and will rise another 82 times over the next three years. That’s a to-
tal of 3,444 times. That means that between 1990 and 2001, terrestrial capacity will
have increased by a thousand times more than undersea capacity. Between 1998
and 2001, existing plans suggest that terrestrial capacity will rise 25 times more
than undersea capacity will. Assuming that global Internet traffic will prove to be
growing at less than the million fold every six years projected by UUNet, the expan-
sion will still be huge. While current growth comes chiefly through the spread of
The Anderson School at UCLA 23 POL-2002-01
dialup 28.8 modems, the next wave will feed on the power of cable modems and
digital subscriber line links, most of them always on, running between 500 and 1,000
times faster. Not only will this technology increase the flow of bits, it will also sharply
reduce the hassles and frustration of the World Wide Wait, thus greatly spurring de-
mand. . . . .
I have to tell you that I have a personal interest in this company. For the last ten
years, I have been looking for projects of a scale and inspiration that could change
the shape of an industry, or even an economy. I didn’t find any - until now.
A Worldwide Web of Glass and Light
Just as MCI pioneered single mode fiber in the U.S., TCI transformed cable, and
McCaw launched a national wireless system, Global Crossing will pioneer the first in-
tegrated global fiber optic network, fulfilling the prediction in Microcosm (1989) of a
“worldwide web of glass and light.” Like MCI, TCI, and McCaw—it will change its in-
dustry, and the world economy as well.
The Anderson School at UCLA 24 POL-2002-01
Exhibit 13a
GLOBAL CROSSING
Income Statement, 12/31/1998
$(000) Percent
REVENUES 424,099 100
EXPENSES
Cost of Capacity Sold 178,492 42.1%
OA&M 18,056 4.3%
Sales & marketing 26,194 6.2%
Network development 10,962 2.6%
General & admin. 26,844 6.3%
Stock related expense 39,374 9.3%
Prov. For doubtful accts. 4,233 1.0%
Termination of Advisory
Services Agreement 139,669 32.9%
TOTAL 443,824 104.7%
OPERATING LOSS (19,725) -4.7%
EQUITY IN LOSS OF AFFILIATES (2,508) -0.6%
INTEREST INCOME (Expense)
Income 29,986 7.1%
Expense 42,880 10.1%
LOSS BEFORE INCOME TAXES (35,127) -8.3%
Provision for taxes (33,067) -7.8%
LOSS BEFORE EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS (68,194) -16.1%
Extraordinary loss on retirement
of senior notes (19,709) -4.6%
NET LOSS (87,903) -20.7%
Pfd stock dividents (12,681) -3.0%
Pfd stock redemptions (34,140) -8.1%
NET LOSS TO COMMON STOCK (134,724) -31.8%
Per Share (0)
Shares outstanding 358,735,340
The Anderson School at UCLA 25 POL-2002-01
Exhibit 13b
GLOBAL CROSSING
Balance Sheet, 12/31/1998
Notes
1. Revenues from the sale of capacity are recognized in the period that the rights and ob-
ligations of ownership transfer to the purchaser, which occurs when (i) the purchaser
obtains the right to use the capacity, which can only be suspended if the purchaser
fails to pay the full purchase price or fulfill its contractual obligations, (ii) the pur-
chaser is obligated to pay Operations, Administration and Maintenance ("OA&M") costs
and (iii) the segment of a System related to the capacity purchased is available for
service. Customers who have entered into CPAs for capacity have paid deposits toward
the purchase price and such amounts have been included as deferred revenue in the
accompanying consolidated balance sheets.
2. Cost of undersea sales in any period is calculated based on the ratio of capacity reve-
nues recognized in the period to total expected capacity revenues over the life of the
System multiplied by the total costs incurred to construct the System. This calculation
of cost of sales matches costs with the value of each sale relative to total expected
revenues.
3. Customers pay for 110% of ACL's cost to operate and maintain AC-1 based on their
pro-rata share of total capacity subject to annual maximum amounts per circuit pur-
chased of $250,000 per transatlantic circuit and $50,000 per European circuit. Their
pro-rata share is effectively calculated by taking the weighted average of purchased
capacity over total capacity multiplied by 110% of actual costs incurred.
4. ACL entered into the ASA with PCG Telecom, an affiliate of PCG which is a shareholder
of GCL. Under the ASA, PCG Telecom provided ACL with advice in respect of the de-
velopment and maintenance of AC-1, development and implementation of marketing
and pricing strategies and the preparation of business plans and budgets. As compen-
sation for its advisory services, PCG Telecom received a 2% fee on the gross revenues
of the Company over a 25 year term, subject to certain restrictions, with the first such
payment to occur at the AC-1 RFS date. Advances on fees payable under the ASA
were being paid to PCG Telecom at a rate of 1% on signed CPAs until the ASA was
terminated. Fees paid under the ASA to PCG Telecom were shared amongst Union La-
bor Life Insurance Company ("ULLICO"), PCG, CIBC, and Messrs. Winnick, Cook,
Brown, Lee and Porter, all of whom are shareholders of GCL. Effective June 1998, GCL
acquired the rights under the ASA for common stock and contributed such rights to
the Company as the ASA was terminated. This transaction was recorded in the con-
solidated financial statements as an increase in additional paid-in capital of $135 mil-
lion and a charge against operations in the amount of $138 million.