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Week3 - Lesson 1. Duration Estimation - Types, Inputs, Methods, Parametric Estimation

This document discusses methods for estimating activity durations for project planning and control. It covers parametric estimation, which involves estimating durations based on historical data about how input parameters like production rates or travel speeds affect duration. The document provides examples of using production rate and travel speed as parameters to calculate activity durations. It also discusses other duration estimation techniques like expert judgment, analogous estimation, and three point estimates. The goal of duration estimation is to determine how long each activity will take so the overall project schedule can be estimated and resources planned accordingly.

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albert
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25 views

Week3 - Lesson 1. Duration Estimation - Types, Inputs, Methods, Parametric Estimation

This document discusses methods for estimating activity durations for project planning and control. It covers parametric estimation, which involves estimating durations based on historical data about how input parameters like production rates or travel speeds affect duration. The document provides examples of using production rate and travel speed as parameters to calculate activity durations. It also discusses other duration estimation techniques like expert judgment, analogous estimation, and three point estimates. The goal of duration estimation is to determine how long each activity will take so the overall project schedule can be estimated and resources planned accordingly.

Uploaded by

albert
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Project Planning & Control

Duration Estimation, Network Representation


& Analysis -1
Week 3

Koshy Varghese, Ph.D.


Professor
Building Technology & Construction Management
Department of Civil Engineering
I.I.T. Madras
Project Planning & Control

Lesson 1
Duration Estimation - Types, Inputs, Methods,
Parametric Estimation

Koshy Varghese, Ph.D.


Professor
Building Technology & Construction Management
Department of Civil Engineering
I.I.T. Madras
Learning Objectives

• Methods to Estimate Activity Duration

• Examples on parametric methods

• Applicability of different methods


Why Duration Estimation?
• Top-Down approach - based
on estimating parameters of
leaf elements. (Recall WBS)

• Project duration depends on


duration of constituent
activities.

• Estimating intermediate
milestone

• Resource requirements for


the activity
6.4 Activity Duration Estimating
• 6.4.1 INPUTS
– Enterprise Environmental factors
– Organizational Process Assets
– Project Scope Statement
– Activity List
– Activity Attributes
– Activity resource requirements
– Resource calendars
– Project Management Plan
• Risk Register
• Activity Cost estimates
6.4 Activity Duration Estimating
6.4.2 Tools & Techniques
– Expert Judgment (Heuristic)
– Analogous Estimating (Data + Heuristic)
– Parametric estimating
– Three Point Estimate (Uncertainty)
– Reserve analysis (Buffer)
6.4.3 Outputs
– Activity duration estimates
– Activity attributes
Parametric Estimating
Simple example….

Total Distance = 300Km


Determine duration to cover distance:

Speed = 100 Km /Hr | 150 Km/Hr | 60Km/Hr

Duration = 3 Hr | 2 Hr | 5 Hrs

is speed constant ? What influences speed ?


Parametric Estimating
Activity Duration

Total Quantity of Work = 300sqm

Determine duration to complete activity:

Prod. Rate 10 sqm/day | 20 sqm/day | 30 sqm/day

Duration = 30 days | 15 days | 10 days

Is production rate constant ?

What influences production rate ?

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