Housing Prices

Observation Price ($000) Square Feet Price ($000) Error Bedrooms Bathrooms
Actual Forecasted (Residual)

1 199.9 1,065 200.17 0.27 3 1.5

2 228 1,254 226.41 (1.59) 3 2
3 235 1,300 232.79 (2.21) 3 2
4 285 1,577 271.24 (13.76) 4 2.5
5 239 1,600 274.43 35.43 3 2
6 293 1,750 295.25 2.25 4 2
7 285 1,800 302.19 17.19 4 2.5
8 365 1,870 311.91 (53.09) 4 2
9 295 1,935 320.93 25.93 4 2.5
10 290 1,948 322.73 32.73 4 2
11 385 2,254 365.21 (19.79) 4 3
12 505 2,600 413.23 (91.77) 3 2.5
13 425 2,800 440.99 15.99 4 3
14 415 3,000 468.75 53.75 4 3
3,200 496.51
Sum 1.33

FORECAST(D20,B6:B19,C6:C19)= Y = a + b (X)
Price = Intercept + (Slope x SQFT)
Price = 52.35090729 + (0.13875032 x SQFT)
Price = 52.35090729 + (0.13875032 x 3.200)
Price = 496.51
 Price ($)
Price ($)

600.0
500.0
400.0 f(x) = 0.138750319515173 x + 52.3509072864702
R² = 0.820521867058809 Price ($)
300.0
Linear (Price ($))
200.0
100.0
-
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
SQFT
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Goodness of fit" - R2 close to 1 = very"
good fit
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.905826621
R Square 0.820521867
Adjusted R Square 0.805565356
Standard Error 39.02303569 Limited sample, better use Adjusted R2

Observations 14

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 83541.44151372 83541.4415137 54.860512773 8.1990561E-06
Residual 12 18273.56777199 1522.79731433
Total 13 101815.0092857

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 52.35090729 37.28548720662 1.4040558729 0.1856506149 -28.8871905064 133.589 -28.88719
X Variable 1 0.13875032 0.018732858843 7.40678829001 0.0000082 0.097934926379 0.179566 0.0979349

t score > 2.0 shows significant relationship

Y = a + b (X)
Price = Intercept + (Slope x SQFT)
Price = 52.35090729 + (0.13875032 x SQFT) confidence level 95% - 0.05 <
Upper 95.0%
133.58901
0.1795657
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.913941244
R Square 0.835288597
Adjusted R2 is lower
Adjusted R Square 0.785875176
Standard Error 40.95130401
Observations 14

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 85044.916285 28348.30543 16.90408361 0.0003047986
Residual 10 16770.093 1677.0093
Total 13 101815.00929

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 125.8640268 87.36216275 1.440715555 0.180232616 -68.79100136 320.519055 -68.79100136 320.519055
X Variable 1 0.153506782 0.0348451803 4.405394961 0.001323888 0.075866882 0.231146681 0.075866882 0.231146681
X Variable 2 -22.32084915 27.075015397 -0.824407625 0.428933475 -82.64774261 38.00604432 -82.64774261 38.00604432
X Variable 3 -8.787692288 45.447482495 -0.193359275 0.850548523 -110.0509933 92.47560875 -110.0509933 92.47560875

.Decision: To use original model

t-score for bedroom and
.bathroom are very low
Trend Analysis

Year Sales ($) Average

1997 100,000
1998 110,000
1999 119,000 109,667
2000 128,000
2001 138,000
2002 147,000 137,667
2003 155,000
2004 162,000
2005 168,000 161,667
2006 179,583 179,583
Point-to-point Estimate:
100,000 (1+g)8 = 168,000
(1+g)8 = 1.680
g = 6.7%

Average Point-to-point Estimate:

109,667 (1+g)6 = 161,667
(1+g)6 = 1,4742
g = 6.7%

2006 Sales Estimate = $168,000 (1.067) = $ 179,256

Moving Average

Month Actual Forecast Forecast Absolute Squared Percentage

Error Error Error Error
44 100
45 126
46 139
47 175 135 40 40.00 1,600.00 0.2286
48 190 157.5 32.5 32.50 1,056.25 0.1711
49 105 152.25 -47.25 47.25 2,232.56 0.4500
50 129 149.75 -20.75 20.75 430.56 0.1609
51 99 130.75 -31.75 31.75 1,008.06 0.3207
52 127 115 12 12.00 144.00 0.0945
53 116 117.75 -1.75 1.75 3.06 0.0151
54 169 127.75 41.25 41.25 1,701.56 0.2441
55 113 131.25 -18.25 18.25 333.06 0.1615
56 117 128.75 -11.75 11.75 138.06 0.1004
57 141 135 6 6.00 36.00 0.0426
58 172 135.75 36.25 36.25 1,314.06 0.2108
59 202 158 44 44.00 1,936.00 0.2178
60 220 183.75 36.25 36.25 1,314.06 0.1648

Sum 307.25 10,591.06 2.1831

21.95 756.50 15.59%
Goodness-of-fit Measures MAD MSE MAPE

MAD Mean Absolute Deviation

MSE Mean Squared Error
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
ntage
Linear Regression

Month Actual Forecast Forecast Absolute Squared Percentage

Error Error Error Error
1 65
2 60
3 67 Revenue
Revenue ($)
4 72
5 80
6 80 200
7 72
8 70 150
9 80
10 85 f(x) = 1.44148936170213 x + 59.3501773049646 Revenue
100 Linear (Revenue)
11 90 Linear (Revenue)
12 100
50
13 60
14 61
15 70 0
16 75 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45
17 90
Month
18 85
19 80
20 90
21 91
22 88
23 100
24 115
25 80
26 80
27 78
28 85
29 90
30 95
31 90
32 96
33 100
34 105
35 120
36 130
37 104
38 103
39 92
40 107
41 98
42 142
43 93
44 100
45 126
46 139
47 175
48 190
49 105 129.98 -24.98 24.98 624.18 0.2379
50 129 131.43 -2.43 2.43 5.88 0.0188
51 99 132.87 -33.87 33.87 1,146.94 0.3421
52 127 134.31 -7.31 7.31 53.41 0.0575
53 116 135.75 -19.75 19.75 390.04 0.1703
54 169 137.19 31.81 31.81 1,011.81 0.1882
 55 113 138.63 -25.63 25.63 657.03 0.2268
56 117 140.07 -23.07 23.07 532.41 0.1972
57 141 141.52 -0.52 0.52 0.27 0.0037
58 172 142.96 29.04 29.04 843.50 0.1689
59 202 144.40 57.60 57.60 3,317.93 0.2852
60 220 145.84 74.16 74.16 5,499.71 0.3371

Sum 330.17 14,083.09 2.2336

27.51 1,173.59 18.61%
MAD MSE MAPE
Exponential Smoothing

Month Actual Forecast Forecast Absolute Squared Percentage

Error Error Error Error
49 105
50 129 105 24.00 24.00 576.00 0.1860
51 99 117 (18.00) 18.00 324.00 0.1818
52 127 108 19.00 19.00 361.00 0.1496
53 116 118 (1.50) 1.50 2.25 0.0129
54 169 117 52.25 52.25 2,730.06 0.3092
55 113 143 (29.88) 29.88 892.52 0.2644
56 117 128 (10.94) 10.94 119.63 0.0935
57 141 122 18.53 18.53 343.41 0.1314
58 172 132 40.27 40.27 1,621.32 0.2341
59 202 152 50.13 50.13 2,513.30 0.2482
60 220 177 43.07 43.07 1,854.72 0.1958

Sum 307.56 11,338.20 2.0069

27.96 1,030.75 18.24%
Goodness-of-fit Measures MAD MSE MAPE

MAD Mean Absolute Deviation

MSE Mean Squared Error
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
 #N/A
105
117
108
117.5
116.75
142.875
127.9375
122.46875
131.734375
151.8671875
176.9335938
Seasonality

Year Quarter Total

1 2 3 4

2003 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 45.0

2004 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 50.1
2005 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 53.6

Total $ 42.00 $ 29.50 $ 21.90 $ 55.30 $ 148.70

Forecast revenue 2006 = 45 (1+g)2 = 53.6

(1+g)2 = 53.6/45
g= 9.14%
$ 58.50

Quarter 1 $ 16.52
2 $ 11.61
3 $ 8.62
4 $ 21.75
Date The Gap Sales ($000)
Mar-94 751,670
Jun-94 773,131
Sep-94 988,346
Dec-94 1,209,790
Mar-95 848,688
Jun-95 865,514
Sep-95 1,155,930
Dec-95 1,522,120
Mar-96 1,113,150
Jun-96 1,120,340
Sep-96 1,383,000
Dec-96 1,667,900
Mar-97 1,231,186
Jun-97 1,345,221
Sep-97 1,765,939
Dec-97 2,165,479
Mar-98 1,719,712
Jun-98 1,904,970
Sep-98 2,399,900
Dec-98 3,029,900
Dates The Gap Sales ($000) - Actual The Gap Sales ($000) - Forecast(Box Jenkins)
Mar-94 751,670.00 751,670.00
Jun-94 773,131.00 773,131.00
Sep-94 988,346.00 988,346.00
Dec-94 1,209,790.00 1,209,790.00
Mar-95 848,688.00 852,113.81
Jun-95 865,514.00 870,105.09
Sep-95 1,155,930.00 1,101,763.88
Dec-95 1,522,120.00 1,470,407.66
Mar-96 1,113,150.00 1,097,786.99
Jun-96 1,120,340.00 1,147,934.59
Sep-96 1,383,000.00 1,467,363.81
Dec-96 1,667,900.00 1,736,716.75
Mar-97 1,231,186.00 1,180,868.78
Jun-97 1,345,221.00 1,281,280.61
Sep-97 1,765,939.00 1,726,699.55
Dec-97 2,165,479.00 2,168,428.48
Mar-98 1,719,712.00 1,596,738.73
Jun-98 1,904,970.00 1,994,117.99
Sep-98 2,399,900.00 2,410,741.50
Dec-98 3,029,900.00 2,932,260.36
Mar-99 2,470,197.62
Jun-99 2,736,302.57
Sep-99 3,447,220.98
Dec-99 4,352,154.19
Mar-00 3,548,196.62
Jun-00 3,930,430.28
Sep-00 4,951,594.84
Dec-00 6,251,442.64
Mar-01 5,096,636.45
Jun-01 5,645,677.61
Sep-01 7,112,480.35
Dec-01 8,979,584.24

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 2.49%

Sum Squared Error (SSE) 59,380,885,587.16
R-Square 99.10%
Adjusted R-Square 99.06%
Chi-Square 1.00
Cochrane-Orcutt 0.04
Mean Absolute Error 39,354.12
Mean Error 10,181.02
Mean Square Error 2,969,044,279.36
Normality Error 3.69
Root Mean Square Error 54,488.94
Standard Deviation of Error 55,904.47
Theil 0.16
Mean 1,448,094.30
Standard Deviation 590,908.43
The Gap Sa
751670
773131
988346
1209790
848688 Date Mar-94
Jun-94
Sep-94
Dec-94
Mar-95 Forecast of TheFitted Values
751670
773131
988346
1209790
852113.81455
865514
1155930
1522120
1113150
1120340
1383000 Jun-95
Sep-95
Dec-95
Mar-96
Jun-96
Sep-96 870105.08622
1101763.882
1470407.6613
1097786.9934
1147934.5933
1467363.8127
1667900
1231186
1345221
1765939
2165479
1719712 Dec-96
Mar-97
Jun-97
Sep-97
Dec-97
Mar-98 1736716.745
1180868.7834
1281280.6055
1726699.5493
2168428.4792
1596738.7347
1904970
2399900
3029900 Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
Mar-99 2932260.3621
Jun-99 2470197.6242
Sep-99 2736302.5717
3447220.9756 1994117.9946
2410741.4985
2932260.3621
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00 4352154.1873
3548196.6183
Jun-01 3930430.2766
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Dec-01 4951594.8393
6251442.6449
5096636.4466
5645677.6086
7112480.3503
8979584.2382 The Gap Sales ($000)

10000000
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
4 6 8 9 9 1 3 4 5 7 9 0 0 2 4 5 5 7 9 0 0 2 4 5 6 8 0 1
39 48 57 66 75 85 94 03 12 21 30 40 49 58 67 76 85 94 03 13 22 31 40 49 58 67 77 86 95
34 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
The Gap Sales ($000) Forecast of The Gap Sales ($000) Fitted Values

Forecast -- Box Jenkins Selected

Forecast
Date Quarterly Annual
Mar-1999 2,470,197.62
Jun-1999 2,736,302.57
Sep-1999 3,447,220.98
Dec-1999 4,352,154.19 13,005,875.36
Mar-2000 3,548,196.62
Jun-2000 3,930,430.28
Sep-2000 4,951,594.84
Dec-2000 6,251,442.64 18,681,664.38
Mar-2001 5,096,636.45
Jun-2001 5,645,677.61
Sep-2001 7,112,480.35
Dec-2001 8,979,584.24 26,834,378.64
Avg 4,876,826.53 19,507,306.13
Max 8,979,584.24 26,834,378.64
Min 2,470,197.62 13,005,875.36

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 2.49%
The data has a standard deviation of 590,908.43
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 99.10%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail -- Correlation Coefficient Table

Series
Descritpion The Gap Sales ($000)
The Gap Sales ($000) 1.00

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 2.49% Mean
Sum Squared Error (SSE) 59,380,885,587.16 Standard Deviation
R-Square 99.10%
Adjusted R-Square 99.06%
Chi-Square 1.00
Cochrane-Orcutt 0.04
Mean Absolute Error 39,354.12
Mean Error 10,181.02
Mean Square Error 2,969,044,279.36
Normality Error 3.69
Root Mean Square Error 54,488.94
Standard Deviation of Error 55,904.47
Theil 0.16

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Box Jenkins
Model Selected ARIMA(1,0,1) * (0,1,0)
T-Test For Non Seasonal AR 12.51
T-Test For Non Seasonal MA -2.17

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected py-of-attachement-updated0406.xls]Bob-Jenkins'!$A$3:$B$23
Time scale for data Quarterly
Periods to forecast 12
Seasonal Length 4
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Box Jenkins

Report Details
Run Date: 08/25/2007 20:06
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
 0 2 4 5 6 8 0 1 1 3 5 6
22 631 640 649 658 667 677 686 695 704 713 722
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
$000) Fitted Values
ecast Statistics Value
1,448,094.30
590,908.43
 10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
Jun-1994

Jun-1995

Dec-1995

Dec-1996

Sep-1997
Dec-1997

Jun-1998
Sep-1998

Jun-2000

Dec-2000
Mar-1994

Sep-1994
Dec-1994
Mar-1995

Sep-1995

Mar-1996
Jun-1996
Sep-1996

Jun-1997

Mar-1998

Dec-1998
Mar-1999
Jun-1999
Sep-1999
Dec-1999
Mar-2000

Sep-2000

Jun-2001
Sep-2001
Dec-2001
Mar-1997

Mar-2001
-2000000

Statistic Error Forecast Historical

Series Name - all - Series Name - all -

Sum - Value Statistic Statistic Sum - Value

Date Error Forecast Historical Adjusted R-Square 0.9905521326
Mar-1994 0 751670 751670 AIC 496.98766026
Jun-1994 0 773131 773131 BIC 498.9791248
Sep-1994 0 988346 988346 Durbin Watson 1.7787402969
Dec-1994 0 1209790 1209790 Kurtosis 3.5296291004
Mar-1995 -3425.81455261912 852113.815 848688 Max 3029900
Jun-1995 -4591.08621506952 870105.086 865514 Mean 1448094.3
Sep-1995 54166.1180351912 1101763.88 1155930 Mean Absolute Deviation 459116.56
Dec-1995 51712.3386856725 1470407.66 1522120 Mean Absolute Error 39354.122621
Mar-1996 15363.0065611422 1097787 1113150 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 0.0248948721
Jun-1996 -27594.593298492 1147934.59 1120340 Mean Error 10181.020198
Sep-1996 -84363.8127390333 1467363.81 1383000 Mean Square Deviation 331714135571
Dec-1996 -68816.745032019 1736716.75 1667900 Mean Square Error 2969044279
Mar-1997 50317.2165670679 1180868.78 1231186 Median 1288203.5
Jun-1997 63940.3944936383 1281280.61 1345221 Min 751670
Sep-1997 39239.4506500657 1726699.55 1765939 Mode 0
Dec-1997 -2949.47921675164 2168428.48 2165479 PACF 0.6107525112
Mar-1998 122973.265268738 1596738.73 1719712 Range 2278230
Jun-1998 -89147.9946308518 1994118 1904970 Root Mean Square 575946.29573
Sep-1998 -10841.4985448061 2410741.5 2399900 R-Square 0.9910493887
Dec-1998 97639.6379191289 2932260.36 3029900 Skewness 1.0380712632
Mar-1999 0 2470197.62 0 Standard Deviation 590908.43139
Jun-1999 0 2736302.57 0 Standard Deviation of Error 55904.470016
Sep-1999 0 3447221 0 Sum Squared Deviation 6.634283E+12
Dec-1999 0 4352154.19 0 Sum Squared Error (SSE) 59380885587
Mar-2000 0 3548196.62 0 Theil 0.1625630984
Jun-2000 0 3930430.28 0 Variance 349172774285
Sep-2000 0 4951594.84 0
Dec-2000 0 6251442.64 0
Mar-2001 0 5096636.45 0
Jun-2001 0 5645677.61 0
Sep-2001 0 7112480.35 0
Dec-2001 0 8979584.24 0
Date SDPP SDI FSISF IHSG
11/1/2006 7,630.46 1,660.26 1,792.22 1,589.87
11/2/2006 7,726.53 1,678.63 1,810.98 1,607.70
11/3/2006 7,746.65 1,683.29 1,817.17 1,612.92
11/6/2006 7,874.38 1,713.07 1,835.99 1,640.85
11/7/2006 7,927.29 1,725.70 1,847.47 1,654.15 SDPP SDI FSISF IHSG
11/8/2006 7,882.91 1,715.60 1,840.20 1,646.07 SDPP 100%
11/9/2006 7,932.93 1,729.03 1,848.48 1,660.26 SDI 98% 100%
11/10/2006 7,939.82 1,729.04 1,852.62 1,664.84 FSISF 68% 68% 100%
11/13/2006 7,802.08 1,700.84 1,827.77 1,639.27 IHSG 99% 98% 66% 100%
11/14/2006 7,938.61 1,731.31 1,854.81 1,672.07
11/15/2006 7,943.17 1,730.68 1,680.81 1,670.11
11/16/2006 7,941.64 1,730.40 1,860.07 1,666.82
11/17/2006 7,958.27 1,736.99 1,864.26 1,672.11
11/20/2006 8,004.49 1,774.81 1,865.42 1,684.01
11/21/2006 8,012.22 1,747.20 1,878.92 1,681.34
11/22/2006 8,115.37 1,777.22 1,908.98 1,705.44
11/23/2006 8,119.81 1,777.61 1,910.12 1,704.13
11/24/2006 8,151.19 1,782.41 1,918.32 1,717.73
11/27/2006 8,206.07 1,788.64 1,919.37 1,728.93
11/28/2006 8,019.23 1,749.71 1,873.38 1,691.08
11/29/2006 8,132.11 1,771.84 1,892.35 1,713.40
11/30/2006 8,176.09 1,783.92 1,901.95 1,718.96
Solver

Portofolio Beginning

Names Code Price Risk Weighted R Unit Total IDR Yield Total Y
Stock ASII 8,000 1.5 0.7164179104478 200,000 1,600,000,000 20% 320,000,000
TLKM 7,500 1.3 0.2910447761194 100,000 750,000,000 15% 112,500,000
Bond SUN 100,000,000 1 0.2985074626866 10 1,000,000,000 12% 120,000,000

Total 1.30597014925373 3,350,000,000 552,500,000

Portofolio Ending

Names Code Price Risk Weighted R Unit Total IDR Yield Total Y
Stock ASII 8,000 1.5 0.7533148668224 210,300 1,682,403,203 20% 336,480,641
TLKM 7,500 1.3 0.2151553128323 73,925 554,438,691 15% 83,165,804
Bond SUN 100,000,000 1 0.332286001991 11 1,113,158,107 12% 133,578,973

Total 1.30075618164568 3,350,000,000 553,225,417

Parameters Weighted R1 > Weighted R0

Total IDR 1 = Total IDR 0
Total Y1 => Total Y2
Units => 0
Percent-of-sales Method

Projected
2005 Percent of sales 2006

Sales 20 24

Assets
Current Assets 2 10% 2.4
Fixed Assets 4 20% 4.8
Total Assets 6 7.2

Liabilities and stockholders' equity

Current Liabilities 2 10% 2.4
Long Term Debt 2.5 n/a 2.5
Total Liabilities 4.5 4.9

Common Stock 0.1 n/a 0.1

Paid in capital 0.2 n/a 0.2
R/E 1.2 1.92a)
Total Equity 1.5 2.22
Total Liabilities and Shareho 6Total Financing Provided 7.12
 External Financing Needed 0.08b)
Total 7.2

Notes:
n/a not applicable, assumed not to be vary with sales
a) Assume net income = 5% of sales, Dividend PO Ratio = 40%
1.2 + 5%(24) - 0.4(5%(24)) = 1.2 + 1.2 - 0.48 = 1.92
b) 7.2 - 4.9 - 2.22 = 0.08
 1999 Forecast 1998 Actual
Net Operating Assets $ millions % of Sales $ millions % of Sales
Account Receivable 771 13.7% 587 11.7%
Inventory 900 16.0% 750 14.9%
Other operating current assets 96 1.7% 102 2.0%
Account Payable (371) -6.6% (340) -6.8%
Other operating current liabilities (338) -6.0% (287) -5.7%
Operating working capital 1,058 18.8% 812 16.2%
PP&E, net 1,480 26.3% 1,362 27.1%
Other long term assets 17 0.3% 73 1.5%
Other operating long-term liabilities (180) -3.2% (225) -4.5%
Net operating long-term assets 1,317 23.4% 1,210 24.1%
Total net operating assets 2,375 42.2% 2,022 40.3%

% of Net % of Net
Net Capital $ millions Capital $ millions Capital
Total short-term and long-term debt 959 40.4% 946 46.8%
Cash and short-term investments (17) -0.7% (241) -11.9%
Net debt 943 39.7% 705 34.9%
Total shareholders' equity 1,432 60.3% 1,317 65.1%
Total net capital 2,375 100.0% 2,022 100.0%

Actual Sales 1998 5,017

Forecast Sales 1999 5,628

1999 Forecast 1998 Actual

$ millions % of Sales $ millions % of Sales
Total Sales 5,627 100.0% 5,028 100.0%
Cost of sales 3,760 66.8% 3,345 66.5%
SG&A expenses 1,537 27.3% 1,405 27.9%
Other income 107 1.9% 107 2.1%
Earnings before interest and taxes 437 7.8% 385 7.7%
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) 275 4.9% 238 4.7%
Net interest expense after taxes 37 0.7% 31 0.6%
Net income 238 4.2% 207 4.1%

1999 Forecast 1998 Actual

$ millions % of Sales $ millions % of Sales
Net income
After-tax net interest expense
Depreciation and other long-term operating accruals
Operating cash flow before investment in
working capital
Net investment in operating working capital
Operating cash flow
Net investment in long-term operating assets and
liabliities
Free cash flow available to debt and equity
After-tax net interest expense
Net debt (repayment) or issuance
Free cash flow available to equity
Cash dividends and repurcahse of common stock
Net cash increase (decrease)
Ending cash balance
 1999 Forecast 1998 Actual
$ millions $ millions
Net income 238 207
After-tax net interest expense 37 31
Depreciation and other long-term operating accruals 196 187
Operating cash flow before investment in
working capital 471 425
Net investment in operating working capital (246) 199
Operating cash flow 225 624
Net investment in long-term operating assets and
liabliities (304) (259)
Free cash flow available to debt and equity (79) 365
After-tax net interest expense (37) (31)
Net debt (repayment) or issuance 13 258
Free cash flow available to equity (103) 592
Cash dividends and repurcahse of common stock (123) (375)
Net cash increase (decrease) (226) 217
Ending cash balance 15 241
Forecasting & Valuation
Hotel Ciputra, Jakarta 21 Agustus 2019
Bhivestama
Wiljadi Tan, MM, CFM

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