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Demand Forecasting Problems

This document discusses demand forecasting and provides examples of calculating forecasts using different methods such as moving averages and exponential smoothing. It includes problems calculating weekly, monthly, and annual forecasts using weighted moving averages, simple moving averages, and exponential smoothing. The accuracy of different forecasting methods is compared using measures like MAD, MSE, and MAPE. Forecasts are generated for upcoming time periods based on historical sales data and prior forecasts.

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moe mad
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147 views2 pages

Demand Forecasting Problems

This document discusses demand forecasting and provides examples of calculating forecasts using different methods such as moving averages and exponential smoothing. It includes problems calculating weekly, monthly, and annual forecasts using weighted moving averages, simple moving averages, and exponential smoothing. The accuracy of different forecasting methods is compared using measures like MAD, MSE, and MAPE. Forecasts are generated for upcoming time periods based on historical sales data and prior forecasts.

Uploaded by

moe mad
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Demand Forecasting
Problems

1. Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are in the table below. Based on
this data, forecast week 9 using a five-week moving average.

Week Sales
1 415
2 389
3 420
4 382
5 410
6 432
7 405
8 421

2. Given the following data, calculate the three-year moving averages for years 4 through 10.

3. What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past
demand data and using the weights: 4, 3, 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

4. Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. Compute a three-period
moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Compute MAD for each
forecast. Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method.
5. The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts (for
the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these
four weeks.

6. A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an


upscale branch of a department store chain. Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in
the most recent period completed, a forecast of 172 items for that period, and a smoothing
constant of 0.3, what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if
the smoothing constant were 0.6?

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