QMB - Session 19 - Worksheet 18 - Winter 2020 PDF

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Ahmedabad University Quantitative Methods for Business (TOD211)

Amrut Mody School of Management Winter Semester – 2020


PERT and CPM

Session 19

Case Study
The Daugherty Porta-Vac Project
The H.S Daugherty Company has manufactured industrial vacuum cleaning systems for many
years. Recently, a member of the company’s new product research team submitted a report
suggesting that the company consider manufacturing a cordless vacuum cleaner. The new
product, referred to as Porta-Vac, could contribute to Daugherty’s expansion into the
household market. Management hopes that it can be manufactured at a reasonable cost and
that its probability and no-cord convenience will make it extremely attractive.

Daugherty’s management wants to study the feasibility of manufacturing the Porta-Vac


product. The feasibility study will recommend the action to be taken. To complete this study,
information must be obtained from the firm’s research and development (R & D), product
testing, manufacturing, cost estimating and market research groups. How long will this
feasibility study take?

In the following discussion, we show how to answer this question and provide an activity
schedule for the project.

 ACTIVITY LIST FOR THE PORTA-VAC PROJECT and


OPTIMISTIC, MOST PROBABLE AND PESSIMISTIC ACTIVITY TIME ESTIMATES
(IN WEEKS) FOR THE PORTA-VAC PROECT

ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION IMMEDIATE OPTIMISTIC MOST- PESSIMISTIC


PREDECESSOR (𝑎) PROBABLE (𝑏)
(𝑚)
𝐴 Develop product design − 4 5 12
𝐵 Plan market research − 1 1.5 5
𝐶 Prepare routing 𝐴 2 3 4
(Manufacturing
engineering)
𝐷 Build prototype model 𝐴 3 4 11
𝐸 Prepare marketing 𝐴 2 3 4
brochure
𝐹 Prepare cost estimates 𝐶 1.5 2 2.5
(Industrial engineering)
𝐺 Do preliminary product 𝐷 1.5 3 4.5
testing
𝐻 Complete market survey 𝐵, 𝐸 2.5 3.5 7.5
𝐼 Prepare pricing and 𝐻 1.5 2 2.5
forecast report
𝐽 Prepare final report 𝐹, 𝐺, 𝐼 1 2 3

Conduct the project scheduling with uncertain activity times.

(Readings: Vohra, N.D., Quantitative techniques in Management, Tata McGraw Hill, Chapter 5, Page no.202 – 235)
Winter Semester: 2020/ TOD211/ Professor Bhaktida Trivedi & Vinay Vachharajani Page 1
Network

ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC MOST-PROBABLE PESSIMISTIC Expected Time Variance


(𝒂) (𝒎) (𝒃)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J

ACTIVITY EST EFT LST LFT Slack Critical Path


A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J

Problem 1: A small maintenance project consists of the following twelve jobs whose
precedence relations are identified with their node numbers. (i) Draw an arrow diagram
representing the project. (ii) Calculate EST, EFT, LST and LFT. (iii) Find the critical path and
project duration.

JOB TIME

1-2 10

1-3 4

1-4 6

2-3 5

(Readings: Vohra, N.D., Quantitative techniques in Management, Tata McGraw Hill, Chapter 5, Page no.202 – 235)
Winter Semester: 2020/ TOD211/ Professor Bhaktida Trivedi & Vinay Vachharajani Page 2
2-5 12

2-6 9

3-7 12

4-5 15

5-6 6

6-7 5

6-8 4

7-8 7

Problem 2: Draw a network diagram for following activities and find critical path, and total slack
of activities
Job Job time Immediate Predecessor
A 6 -
B 3 -
C 5 A
D 4 A
E 3 A
F 3 C
G 5 D
H 5 B,D,E
I 2 H
J 3 I, G, F

Problem 3: A medium project has 12 distinct activities which are to be further analysed by using
PERT. The following relevant information is also given in tabular form. Determine the average critical
path.

ACTIVITY IMMEDIATE Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic


PREDECESSOR (a) (m) (b)
A - 2 2 2
B - 1 3 7
C A 4 7 8
D A 3 5 7
E B 2 6 9
F B 5 9 11
G C,D 3 6 8
H E 2 6 9
I C,D 3 5 8
J G,H 1 3 4
K F 4 8 11
L J,K 2 5 7

(Readings: Vohra, N.D., Quantitative techniques in Management, Tata McGraw Hill, Chapter 5, Page no.202 – 235)
Winter Semester: 2020/ TOD211/ Professor Bhaktida Trivedi & Vinay Vachharajani Page 3
Problem 4: Various activities of small project and other relevant information have been shown in the
adjoining table:

Activity Most optimistic time Most likely time Most pessimistic time
1-2 4 8 12
2-3 1 4 7
2-4 8 12 16
3-5 3 5 7
4-5 0 0 0
4-6 3 6 9
5-7 3 6 9
5-8 4 6 8
7-9 4 8 12
8-9 2 5 8
9-10 4 10 16
6-10 4 6 8

Determine:
1.Expected task times and variance
2.The earliest and latest expected times
3.Critical path
4.The probability of an event occurring at proposed completion date if original contract time of
completing the project in 48 days.

(Readings: Vohra, N.D., Quantitative techniques in Management, Tata McGraw Hill, Chapter 5, Page no.202 – 235)
Winter Semester: 2020/ TOD211/ Professor Bhaktida Trivedi & Vinay Vachharajani Page 4

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