Classification of Software Risks With Discriminant Analysis Techniques in Software Planning Development Process
Classification of Software Risks With Discriminant Analysis Techniques in Software Planning Development Process
Abstract
The aim of this study is to propose the discriminant analysis (DA) techniques to
classify and manage risks in software planning development process. These techniques
are used to test the controls to each of risks to determine and classify if they are effective
in mitigating the occurrence of each risk planning factor. We classified risks to three
levels by predicted group membership. Also top ten risks planning software development
were mitigated by using controls based on discriminant analysis techniques.
1. Introduction
Despite much research and progress in the area of software project management,
software development projects still fail to deliver acceptable systems on time and
within budget [1]. Much of the failure could be avoided by managers pro-actively
maintenance and dealing with risk factors rather than waiting for problems to occur
and then trying to react. Due to the involvement of risk management in monitoring
the success of a software project, analyzing potential risks, and making decisions
about what to do about potential risks, the risk management is considere d the
planned control of risk. Integrating formal risk management with project
management is a new phenomenon in software engineering and product management
community. In addition, risk management methodology that has five phases: Risk
identification, risk analysis and evaluation, risk treatment, risk controlling, risk
communication and documentation relied on three categories or techniques as risk
qualitative analysis, risk quantitative analysis and risk mining analysis throughout
the life of a software project to meet the goals [2]. Today, we must think of risk is a
part of software project process and is important for a software project survival.
Risk management is a practice of controlling risk and practice con sists of processes,
methods, and tools for managing risks in a software project before they become
problems [3]. The objective of this study is: To classify the software planning risks
of software development in the software development organizations, to mode l the
activities performed for mitigating the risks planning software development which
identified.
2. Literature Review
Khanfar et al., [4], the new technique used the chi-square (χ2) test to control the
risks in a software project. However, we also used new techniques which are the
regression test and effect size test proposed to manage the risks in a software project
and reducing risk with software process improvement [5]. Also we improved quality
of software projects of the participating companies while estimating the quality–
affecting risks in IT software projects. The results show that there were 40 common
risks in software projects of IT companies in Palestine. The amount of technical and
non-technical difficulties was very large [6]. Furthermore, we used the new stepwise
regression technique to manage the risks in a software project. These tests were
performed using regression analysis to compare the controls to each of the risk
factors to determine if they are effective in mitigating the occurrence of each risk
factor implementation phase [7]. In addition, we proposed the new mining technique
that uses the fuzzy multiple regression analysis techniques to manage the risks in a
software project. However, these mining tests were performed using fuzzy multiple
regression analysis techniques to compare the risk management techniques to each
of the software risk factors to determine if they are effective in mitigating the
occurrence of each software risk factor[8]. This paper aimed to present new
techniques to determine if fuzzy and stepwise regression are effective in mitigating
the occurrence software risk factor in the implementation phase [9]. Additionally,
we proposed artifact model of the software risk management for mitigating risks. It
has the five levels to mitigate risks through software project [10]. Previous studies
had shown that risk mitigation in software projects classified into three categories–
namely, qualitative, quantitative, and mining approaches. Firstly, quantitative risk is
based on statistical methods that deal with accurate measurement about risk or
leading to quantitative inputs that helped to form a regression model to understand
how software project risk factors influence project success. Furthermore, qualitative
risk techniques lead to subjective opinions expressed or self-judgment by software
manager using techniques namely scenario analysis, Delphi analysis, brainstorming
session, and other subjective approach to mitigate risks. There are several software
risk management approaches, models, and framework according to a literature
review.
5. Empirical Strategy
Data collection was achieved through the use of a structured questionnaire for
estimating the quality of software through determine risks that were common to the
majority of software projects in the analyzed software companies. Top ten software
planning risks and thirty control factors were presented to respondents. The method
of sample selection referred to as distribution personal regular sampling was used.
This procedure is appropriate when members of homogeneous groups (such as
software project managers, IT managers) are difficult to locate. The seventy six
software project managers have participated in this study. The project managers that
participated in this survey are coming from specific mainly software project
manager in software development organizations. However to describe “software
Development Company in Palestine” that have in-house development software and
supplier of software for local or international market, we depended on Palestinian
Information Technology Association (PITA) Members’ webpage at PITA’s website
[PITA 2012 www.pita.ps/], Palestinian investment promotion agency [PIPA 2012
http://www.pipa.gov.ps/] to select top IT manager, software project managers. In
this paper, we Discriminant Analysis techniques to classify software planning risks
in software development process. A Clearly, Discriminant Analysis (DA) is used for
predicting group membership based on a linear combination of independent
variables. Wilks Lambda (^) is used to test the efficiency of Discriminant Analysis
(DA) function. This measure indicates the significant difference between the target
groups. The Discriminant function is expressed as follows.
DF = w1 C1 + w2 C2 + … +wi Ci + a (1)
Relationships between Risks and Control Variables
These tests are used the discriminant analysis techniques to compare the controls
to each of the risk planning software development factors to determine and evaluate
if they are effective in mitigating the occurrence of each risk factor. Wilk’s Lambda
is used to test if there is relationship between the discriminant function and the
independent variables (controls).
a Cross validation is done only for those cases in the analysis. In cross validation,
each case is classified by the functions derived from all cases other than that case.
b 77.6% of original grouped cases correctly classified.
c 77.6% of cross-validated grouped cases correctly classified.
Table 1 and Table 2 show that discriminant function 1 explains 86.6% of the
variance between the risk groups while discriminant function 2 only accounts fo r
13.4% of the variance. Also it indicates the canonical correlation of the discriminant
functions to the independent variables. Functions 1 and 2 have positive correlation
(r = 0.592, 0.278) hence both function 1 is important for the classification of the
independent variables to risk groups. Eigen value is significant for the discriminant
function 1. The chi-square values (χ2 = 36.867) which is a statistics for measuring
these tests of significance of the Eigen values. However, Wilk’s Lambda is used to
test if there is relationship between the discriminant function and the independent
variables. Associated with each Wilk’s Lambda is a chi -square statistics to measure
the significance of this relationship. If this chi-square statistic corresponding to
Wilk’s Lambda is statistically significant it concluded that a relationship exists
between the discriminant function and the independent variables. The result shows
there is significant relationship between the discriminant function 1 and the
independent variables of c1, c21, c28 related groups. The output for significance
tests and strength of relationship statistics for the discriminant analysis is shown in
Table 1. The coefficients for building the classification models are presented in
equation 2. The output for classification of groups is shown in Table 2. The
classification results allow us to determine how well we can predict group
membership using a classification functions. The results in equation the
discriminant function equation for predicting the classification of risk 1 with risk
management techniques in software devotement project are given as:
Table 7 and Table 8 show that discriminant function 1 explains 91.8% of the
variance between the risk groups. Also it indicates the canonical correlation of the
discriminant functions to the independent variables. Functions 1 has positive
correlation (r = 0.650) higher than the chi-square values (χ2 = 43.509) which is a
statistics for measuring these tests of significance of the Eigen values. The result
shows there is significant relationship between the discriminant function 1 and the
independent variables of c1, c3, c4, c12, c13 related groups. The discriminant
function equation for predicting the classification of risk 4 with risk management
techniques in software devotement project are given as:
Table 9 and Table 10 show that discriminant function 1 explains 75.6% of the
variance between the risk groups while discriminant function 2 only accounts for
24.4% of the variance. Functions 1 and 2 have positive correlation (r = 0.426,
0.258), hence both function1 and 2 are important for the classification of the
independent variables to the risk groups. The chi-square values (χ2 = 19.485, 4.999)
which is a statistics for measuring these tests of significance of the Eigen values,
hence both test of the Eigen values are significant. The result shows there is
significant relationship between the discriminant function 1 and 2 the independent
variables of c6, c7 related groups. From the results in equation the two discriminant
function equations for predicting the classification of risk 5 with risk management
techniques in software devotement project are given as:
R6: Risk of ‘Poor /Inadequate Software Project Planning and Strategic Thinking’
Compared to Controls.
Table 13 and Table 14 show that discriminant function 1 explains 68.3% of the
variance between the risk groups while discriminant function 2 only accounts for
31.7% of the variance. Functions 1 and 2 have positive correlation (r = 0.473,
0.344). Eigen value is significant for the discriminant function 1 and 2. The chi-
square values (χ2 = 27.332, 9.056) which is a statistics for measuring these tests of
significance of the Eigen values, hence both test of the Eigen values are significant.
The result shows there is significant relationship between the discriminant functions
and the independent variables of c9, c11, and c24 related groups. The discriminant
function for predicting the classification of risk 7 with risk management techniques
in software devotement project are given as:
Table 17 and Table 18 show that discriminant function 1 explains 99.1% of the
variance between the risk groups. Also it indicates the canonical correlation of the
discriminant functions to the independent variables. Functions 1 have positive
correlation (r = 0.586), hence both function1 is important for the classification of
the independent variables to the risk groups. The chi-square values (χ2 = 30.581)
which is a statistics for measuring these tests of significance; hence both test of the
Eigen values is significant. The result shows there is significant relationship
between the discriminant function 1 and the independent variables of c1, C6, and C7
related groups. From the results in equation the two discriminant function equations
for predicting the classification of risk 9 with risk management techniques in
software devotement project are given as:
Functions 1 has positive correlation (r = 0.427), hence Function 1 is used for the
classifying of the controls to the risk groups. The chi-square values (χ2 = 14.706)
which is measuring the significance of the Eigen values; hence both test of the
Eigen values is significant. The result shows there is significant relationship
between the discriminant function 1 and the independent variables of c5 related
groups. From the results in equation the two discriminant function equations for
predicting the classification of risk 10 with risk management techniques in software
devotement project are given as:
DF1 = 2.317*c5 -6.463 (13)
6. Conclusions
The paper is the classifying risks of software planning development. These
statistics techniques were used the discriminant analysis techniques, to compare the
controls to each of the risk factors to determine if they are effective in mitigating
the occurrence of each risk factor. However, we classified software planning risks to
high, medium, low by Predicted Group Membership. However, we are referred the
controls in risk management approach were mitigated on software planning risk
software development factors in Table 21. In future work, we can use more
techniques useful to classify and predict software project risk models such as
artificial intelligence techniques.
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