GAM Generalized Additive Model

Additive Decomposition
https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/time+series+analy
Multiplicative Decomposition
Holt-Winters' seasonal method
ARIMA
f/home/time+series+analysis:+the+basics
alpha α 1.000
beta β 1.000
gamma ϒ 1.000
RMSE 26593.855
Y L T S
Period Year Month Sales Level Trend Seasonal Forecast
1 2018 September 441,930 0.986813
2 October 479,680 1.071107
3 November 492,757 1.100307
4 December 421,713 0.941669
5 2019 January 476,794 1.064663
6 February 391,060 0.873222
7 March 479,608 1.070946
8 April 443,654 0.990662
9 May 460,163 1.027526
10 June 440,896 0.984504
11 July 429,636 0.959361
12 August 416,138 0.929220
13 September 430,196 435,944.94 (11,890.81) 0.986813
14 October 428,502 400,055.28 (35,889.67) 1.071107 454,207.35
15 November 410,944 373,481.08 (26,574.20) 1.100307 400,694.12
16 December 363,004 385,490.06 12,008.98 0.941669 326,671.42
17 2020 January 385,750 362,321.34 (23,168.72) 1.064663 423,202.38
18 February 289,256 331,251.41 (31,069.93) 0.873222 296,155.51
19 March 275,388 321,478.23
20 April 212,747 266,598.68
21 May 221,615 244,594.04
22 June 389,451 203,764.44
23 July 423,798 168,753.25
24 August 389,481 134,580.68
 Error

Avg Stdev Range

(25,705.35) (4,694.96) 26176.14 73,784.97
10,249.88
36,332.58
(37,452.38)
(6,899.51) k
(46,090.23) 1
(53,851.68) 2
(22,979.04) 3
185,686.56 4
255,044.75 5
254,900.32 6
alpha α 0.74
beta β 0.17
gamma ϒ 1.00
RMSE 29,011.82

Period Year Month Sales Level Trend

1 2013 Jan. 342,808
2 Feb. 328,298
3 Mar. 357,437
4 Apr. 354,715
5 May 347,682
6 Jun. 339,881
7 Jul. 338,933
8 Aug. 339,930
9 Sep. 382,757
10 Oct. 419,224
11 Nov. 398,227
12 Dec. 348,488
13 2014 Jan. 378,817 395,823.95 37,625.62
14 Feb. 352,824 397,550.41 31,441.16
15 Mar. 401,607 409,351.53 28,057.70
16 Apr. 384,411 400,968.31 21,779.91
17 May 380,466 399,965.45 17,855.05
18 Jun. 389,381 412,301.83 16,904.33
19 Jul. 363,497 395,856.59 11,159.09
20 Aug. 343,542 373,693.01 5,418.49
21 Sep. 390,267 368,832.15 3,647.63
22 Oct. 402,627 351,408.49 17.61
23 Nov. 371,259 338,481.61 (2,212.38)
24 Dec. 355,071 357,513.08 1,447.37
25 2015 Jan. 363,155 374,135.77 4,061.67
26 Feb. 306,107 353,555.04 (183.56)
27 Mar. 398,915 392,783.20 6,606.03
28 Apr. 379,052 396,420.00 6,094.51
29 May 355,932 381,533.53 2,480.05
30 Jun. 394,647 409,083.91 6,799.00
31 Jul. 389,347 421,897.94 7,835.22
32 Aug. 358,282 400,115.60 2,732.91
33 Sep. 394,816 380,848.30 (1,057.14)
34 Oct. 413,777 365,983.42 (3,435.84)
35 Nov. 410,306 371,086.18 (1,964.87)
36 Dec. 379,502 378,738.64 (308.06)
37 2016 Jan. 404,259 406,601.24 4,544.99
38 Feb. 396,470 445,777.24 10,510.99
39 Mar. 455,362 450,420.69 9,500.17
40 Apr. 403,742 432,025.96 4,694.62
41 May 398,075 429,307.93 3,417.62
42 Jun. 425,303 438,748.65 4,455.24
43 Jul. 372,422 413,853.25 (601.09)
44 Aug. 403,487 440,900.59 4,162.00
45 Sep. 449,591 436,639.91 2,710.99
46 Oct. 422,143 390,513.70 (5,702.35)
47 Nov. 458,822 407,134.44 (1,856.68)
48 Dec. 409,587 407,858.04 (1,412.17)
49 2017 Jan. 412,713 412,855.81 (307.91)
50 Feb. 416,614 453,915.85 6,818.68
51 Mar. 487,323 476,503.58 9,535.27
52 Apr. 396,758 440,519.49 1,693.50
53 May 427,046 455,789.70 4,032.40
54 Jun. 446,392 460,327.19 4,119.42
55 Jul. 397,135 447,322.23 1,169.35
56 Aug. 434,399 467,878.57 4,509.21
57 Sep. 455,229 449,976.63 648.37
58 Oct. 452,930 427,207.95 (3,385.77)
59 Nov. 481,869 426,607.97 (2,905.85)
60 Dec. 428,434 425,866.34 (2,533.01)
61 2018 Jan. 474,030 460,986.46 3,953.62
62 Feb. 407,870 449,725.69 1,332.58
63 Mar. 484,955 468,181.76 4,282.50
64 Apr. 429,250 475,522.53 4,809.36
65 May 435,838 469,109.83 2,876.10
66 Jun. 449,394 465,646.56 1,784.00
67 Jul. 421,050 472,486.11 2,654.93
68 Aug. 418,546 457,123.69 (448.97)
69 Sep. 441,930 441,984.10 (2,979.78)
70 Oct. 479,680 448,950.12 (1,266.38)
71 Nov. 492,757 439,217.14 (2,724.95)
72 Dec. 421,713 423,679.81 (4,932.18)
73 2019 Jan. 476,794 452,007.77 797.65
74 Feb. 391,060 436,803.60 (1,959.03)
75 Mar. 479,608 455,703.14 1,634.34
76 Apr. 443,654 482,613.29 5,988.69
77 May 460,163 493,554.58 6,841.89
78 Jun. 440,896 468,151.70 1,286.98
79 Jul. 429,636 478,827.63 2,904.44
80 Aug. 416,138 461,567.03 (569.46)
81 Sep. 430,196 438,233.57 (4,491.08)
82 Oct. 428,502 409,540.18 (8,660.49)
83 Nov. 410,944 375,274.83 (13,071.53)
84 Dec. 363,004 364,049.43 (12,753.49)
85 2020 Jan. 385,750 361,957.11 (10,916.85)
86 Feb. 289,256 330,349.07 (14,481.39)
87 Mar. 275,388
88 Apr. 212,747
89 May 221,615
90 Jun. 389,451
91 Jul. 423,798
92 Aug. 389,481
Seasonal Forecast Error
0.957034
0.916526
0.997875
0.990275
0.970641
0.948863
0.946216
0.948999
1.068562
1.170368
1.111750
0.972891
0.957034 Avg Min Max
0.887495 397,267.70 (44,443.70) (5,767.88) (74,582.50) 52,228.97
0.981081 428,079.76 (26,472.76) (1,178.07) (74,582.50) 192,355.17
0.958707 433,155.61 (48,744.61)
0.951247 410,336.77 (29,870.77)
0.944408 396,454.24 (7,073.24)
0.918254 406,121.74 (42,624.74)
0.919316 386,257.63 (42,715.63)
1.058115 405,104.01 (14,837.01)
1.145752 435,938.56 (33,311.56)
1.096837 390,697.97 (19,438.97)
0.993169 327,153.37 27,917.63
0.970650 343,537.36 19,617.64
0.865797 335,648.34 (29,541.34)
1.015611 346,686.03 52,228.97
0.956188 382,897.12 (3,845.12)
0.932898 382,890.79 (26,958.79)
0.964709 362,665.35 31,981.65
0.922846 381,886.25 7,460.75
0.895446 395,060.61 (36,778.61)
1.036675 426,260.24 (31,444.24)
1.130589 435,146.51 (21,369.51)
1.105689 397,655.44 12,650.56
1.002016 366,599.95 12,902.05
0.994239 367,323.76 36,935.24
0.889390 355,969.30 40,500.70
1.010970 463,411.41 (8,049.41)
0.934532 439,770.75 (36,028.75)
0.927248 407,415.91 (9,340.91)
0.969355 417,454.31 7,848.69
0.899889 409,009.11 (36,587.11)
0.915143 370,045.08 33,441.92
1.029661 461,385.36 (11,794.36)
1.080994 496,725.50 (74,582.50)
1.126955 425,481.76 33,340.24
1.004239 406,094.61 3,492.39
0.999654 404,104.54 8,608.46
0.917822 366,916.15 49,697.85
1.022706 465,788.99 21,534.01
0.900659 454,218.76 (57,460.76)
0.936936 410,041.20 17,004.80
0.969728 445,730.65 661.35
0.887805 417,950.41 (20,815.41)
0.928444 410,433.83 23,965.17
1.011673 486,399.18 (31,170.18)
1.060210 487,122.97 (34,192.97)
1.129536 477,628.32 4,240.68
1.006029 425,498.24 2,935.76
1.028295 423,186.90 50,843.10
0.906931 426,732.28 (18,862.28)
1.035826 461,299.94 23,655.06
0.902691 425,529.35 3,720.65
0.929075 450,040.48 (14,202.48)
0.965097 457,697.80 (8,303.80)
0.891137 414,987.28 6,062.72
0.915608 441,141.80 (22,595.80)
0.999878 462,005.27 (20,075.27)
1.068448 465,436.63 14,243.37
1.121898 505,674.85 (12,917.85)
0.995358 439,123.92 (17,410.92)
1.054836 430,596.03 46,197.97
0.895277 410,663.11 (19,603.11)
1.052457 450,423.46 29,184.54
0.919274 412,834.52 30,819.48
0.932345 453,947.66 6,215.34
0.941780 482,931.02 (42,035.02)
0.897267 418,334.32 11,301.68
0.901577 441,077.62 (24,939.62)
0.981659 460,941.15 (30,745.15)
1.046300 463,431.43 (34,929.43)
1.095048 449,746.27 (38,802.27)
0.997128 360,521.88 2,482.12
1.065734 370,559.56 15,190.44
0.875607 314,278.09 (25,022.09) k
332,437.18 (57,049.18) 1
277,056.68 (64,309.68) 2
267,494.27 (45,879.27) 3
256,563.07 132,887.93 4
231,442.83 192,355.17 5
219,498.48 169,982.52 6
Period Year Month Y=TSCR 4QMA CMA TC SF S
1 2018 September 441,930 1.015
2 October 479,680 459,020.00 1.033
3 November 492,757 467,736.00 463,378.00 1.06 1.042
4 December 421,713 445,581.00 456,658.50 0.92 0.940
5 2019 January 476,794 442,293.75 443,937.38 1.07 1.074
6 February 391,060 447,779.00 445,036.38 0.88 0.879
7 March 479,608 443,621.25 445,700.13 1.08 1.076
8 April 443,654 456,080.25 449,850.75 0.99 0.986
9 May 460,163 443,587.25 449,833.75 1.02 1.023
10 June 440,896 436,708.25 440,147.75 1.00 1.002
11 July 429,636 429,216.50 432,962.38 0.99 0.992
12 August 416,138 426,118.00 427,667.25 0.97 0.973
13 September 430,196 421,445.00 423,781.50 1.02 1.015
14 October 428,502 408,161.50 414,803.25 1.03 1.033
15 November 410,944 397,050.00 402,605.75 1.02 1.042
16 December 363,004 362,238.50 379,644.25 0.96 0.940
17 2020 January 385,750 1.074
18 February 289,256 0.879
19 March 275,388 1.076
20 April 212,747 0.986
21 May 221,615 1.023
22 June 389,451 1.002
23 July 423,798 0.992
24 August 389,481 0.973
 TCR T CR C R Forecasts Error
435,340.54 482,971.68 0.90
464,345.14 475,735.60 0.98 0.96 1.0143
472,869.86 468,499.51 1.01 0.99 1.0236
448,715.71 461,263.43 0.97 0.99 0.9860
443,937.38 454,027.34 0.98 0.98 0.9955
445,036.38 446,791.26 1.00 1.00 1.0001
445,700.13 439,555.17 1.01 1.02 0.9972
449,850.75 432,319.09 1.04 1.04 1.0029
449,833.75 425,083.01 1.06 1.05 1.0071
440,147.75 417,846.92 1.05 1.06 0.9981
432,962.38 410,610.84 1.05 1.06 0.9985
427,667.25 403,374.75 1.06 1.06 0.9988
423,781.50 396,138.67 1.07 1.07 1.0040
414,803.25 388,902.58 1.07 1.06 1.0095
394,358.75 381,666.50 1.03 1.04 0.9899
386,247.51 374,430.41 1.03 1.01 1.0170
359,167.36 367,194.33 0.98 0.97 1.0035
329,180.79 359,958.24 0.91
352,722.16 1.02 0.9972 384,862.65 (109,474.65)
345,486.07 1.04 1.0029 354,544.32 (141,797.32)
338,249.99 1.05 1.0071 366,164.08 (144,549.08)
331,013.90 1.06 0.9981 349,273.14 40,177.86
323,777.82 1.06 0.9985 338,779.68 85,018.32
316,541.73 1.06 0.9988 326,557.48 62,923.52
(34,616.89)
 Intercept
490207.77
Slope
-7236.08

September 1.015
October 1.033
November 1.042
December 0.940
January 1.074
February 0.879
March 1.076
April 0.986
May 1.023
June 1.002
July 0.992
August 0.973
 Worldwide Total
Yt Yt-1 Dyt
September 2018 441,930
October 2018 479,680 441,930 37,750 428,027
November 2018 492,757 479,680 13,077 455,263
December 2018 421,713 492,757 -71,044 464,698
January 2019 476,794 421,713 55,081 413,442
February 2019 391,060 476,794 -85,734 453,181
March 2019 479,608 391,060 88,548 391,326
April 2019 443,654 479,608 -35,954 455,211
May 2019 460,163 443,654 16,509 429,271
June 2019 440,896 460,163 -19,267 441,182
July 2019 429,636 440,896 -11,260 427,281
August 2019 416,138 429,636 -13,498 419,158
September 2019 430,196 416,138 14,058 409,419
October 2019 428,502 430,196 -1,694 419,562
November 2019 410,944 428,502 -17,558 418,340
December 2019 363,004 410,944 -47,940 405,672
January 2020 385,750 363,004 22,746 371,085
February 2020 289,256 385,750 -96,494 387,495
March 2020 275,388 289,256 -13,868 317,878
April 2020 212,747 275,388 -62,641 307,873
May 2020 221,615 212,747 8,868 262,679
June 2020 389,451 221,615 167,836 269,077
July 2020 423,798 389,451 34,347 390,166
August 2020 389,481 423,798 -34,317 414,946
 b0 b1
109188.837751504 0.7214686
0.50
417,468 51,653 62,212 447,573 32,107
405,421 37,494 87,336 462,761 29,996
364,349 -42,985 57,364 431,123 -9,410
425,930 63,352 50,864 441,449 35,345
357,176 -62,121 33,884 412,434 -21,374
442,271 88,282 37,337 435,674 43,934
381,482 -11,557 62,172 438,769 4,885
407,097 30,892 53,066 438,445 21,718
389,629 -286 51,267 432,888 8,008
393,539 2,355 36,097 422,897 6,739
392,446 -3,020 23,692 413,681 2,457
405,900 20,777 24,296 417,397 12,799
398,209 8,940 30,293 419,848 8,654
390,464 -7,396 20,480 410,880 64
375,629 -42,668 -12,625 383,378 -20,374 60,000
410,142 14,665 -24,392 383,304 2,446
40,000
351,922 -98,239 -62,666 341,495 -52,239
392,265 -42,490 -116,877 312,220 -36,832 20,000
368,451 -95,126 -155,704 278,401 -65,654
403,366 -41,064 -181,751 268,122 -46,507 0
1 2 3 4 5
480,984 120,374 -91,533 352,138 37,313 -20,000
415,807 33,632 7,991 408,049 15,749
382,281 -25,465 7,200 399,304 -9,823 -40,000
0.00 110302.26
-60,000

-80,000
 E0 E1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
399036.51 0.4882601
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.7261233
R Square 0.5272551
Adjusted R 0.5047434
Standard Er55098.679
Observatio 23

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 7.11E+10 7.11E+10
Residual 21 6.375E+10 3.036E+09
Total 22 1.349E+11

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Chart Title Intercept 109188.84 60757.29 1.7971315
60,000 X Variable 10.7214686 0.1490771 4.839568

40,000

20,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
-20,000

-40,000

-60,000

-80,000
 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.3625406
R Square 0.1314357
Adjusted R 0.0900755
Standard Er74684.201
Observatio 23

ANOVA
F Significance F df SS MS
23.421419 8.762E-05 Regression 1 1.773E+10 1.773E+10
Residual 21 1.171E+11 5.578E+09
Total 22 1.349E+11

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0% Coefficients

Standard Error t Stat
0.0867125 -17162.86 235540.54 -17162.86 235540.54 Intercept 399036.51 15585.253 25.603467
8.762E-05 0.4114459 1.0314914 0.4114459 1.0314914 X Variable 10.4882601 0.2738962 1.7826469
 F Significance F
3.1778299 0.089108

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

2.554E-17 366625.2 431447.82 366625.2 431447.82
0.089108 -0.081338 1.0578584 -0.081338 1.0578584
 ACF
0.66 0.58 0.44
Period Year Month Sales
Yt Yt+1 Yt+2 Yt+3
1 2013 Jan. 342,808
2 Feb. 328,298 342,808
3 Mar. 357,437 328,298 342,808
4 Apr. 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
0.70
5 May 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298
6 Jun. 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437
7 Jul. 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715
8 Aug. 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682
0.60
9 Sep. 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881
10 Oct. 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933
11 Nov. 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930
0.50
12 Dec. 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757
13 2014 Jan. 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224
14 Feb. 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227
15 Mar. 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488
0.40
16 Apr. 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817
17 May 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824
18 Jun. 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607
0.30
19 Jul. 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411
20 Aug. 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466
21 Sep. 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381
22 Oct. 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497
0.20
23 Nov. 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542
24 Dec. 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267
25 2015 Jan. 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627
0.10
26 Feb. 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259
27 Mar. 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071
28 Apr. 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155
29 May 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107-
1 2
30 Jun. 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915
31 Jul. 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052
32 Aug. 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932
33 Sep. 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647
34 Oct. 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347
35 Nov. 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282
36 Dec. 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816
37 2016 Jan. 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777
38 Feb. 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306
39 Mar. 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502
40 Apr. 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259
41 May 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470
42 Jun. 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362
43 Jul. 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742
44 Aug. 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075
45 Sep. 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303
46 Oct. 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422
47 Nov. 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487
48 Dec. 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591
49 2017 Jan. 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143
50 Feb. 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822
51 Mar. 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587
52 Apr. 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713
53 May 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614
54 Jun. 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323
55 Jul. 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758
56 Aug. 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046
57 Sep. 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392
58 Oct. 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135
59 Nov. 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399
60 Dec. 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229
61 2018 Jan. 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930
62 Feb. 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869
63 Mar. 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434
64 Apr. 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030
65 May 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870
66 Jun. 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955
67 Jul. 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250
68 Aug. 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838
69 Sep. 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394
70 Oct. 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050
71 Nov. 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546
72 Dec. 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930
73 2019 Jan. 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680
74 Feb. 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757
75 Mar. 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713
76 Apr. 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794
77 May 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060
78 Jun. 440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608
79 Jul. 429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654
80 Aug. 416,138 429,636 440,896 460,163
81 Sep. 430,196 416,138 429,636 440,896
82 Oct. 428,502 430,196 416,138 429,636
83 Nov. 410,944 428,502 430,196 416,138
84 Dec. 363,004 410,944 428,502 430,196
85 2020 Jan. 385,750 363,004 410,944 428,502
86 Feb. 289,256 385,750 363,004 410,944
87 Mar. 275,388 289,256 385,750 363,004
88 Apr. 212,747 275,388 289,256 385,750
89 May 221,615 212,747 275,388 289,256
90 Jun. 389,451 221,615 212,747 275,388
91 Jul. 423,798 389,451 221,615 212,747
92 Aug. 389,481 423,798 389,451 221,615
 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.31 0.25 0.19 0.21 0.11

Yt+4 Yt+5 Yt+6 Yt+7 Yt+8 Yt+9 Yt+10 Yt+11

Chart Title
0.70
342,808
328,298 342,808
357,437 328,298 342,808
0.60 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
0.50
339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298
419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437
0.40 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715
348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682
378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881
352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933
0.30
401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930
384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757
380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224
0.20 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227
363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488
343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817
390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824
0.10
402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607
371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411
355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466
- 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2
306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497
398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542
379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267
355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627
394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259
389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071
358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155
394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107
413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915
410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052
379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932
404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647
396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347
455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282
403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816
398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777
425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306
372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502
403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259
449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470
422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362
458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742
409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075
412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303
416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422
487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487
396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591
427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143
446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822
397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587
434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713
455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614
452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323
481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758
428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046
474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392
407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135
484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399
429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229
435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930
449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869
421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434
418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030
441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870
479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955
492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250
421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838
476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394
391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050
479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546
443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930
460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680
440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757
429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713
416,138 429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794
430,196 416,138 429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060
428,502 430,196 416,138 429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608
410,944 428,502 430,196 416,138 429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654
363,004 410,944 428,502 430,196 416,138 429,636 440,896 460,163
385,750 363,004 410,944 428,502 430,196 416,138 429,636 440,896
289,256 385,750 363,004 410,944 428,502 430,196 416,138 429,636
275,388 289,256 385,750 363,004 410,944 428,502 430,196 416,138
212,747 275,388 289,256 385,750 363,004 410,944 428,502 430,196
 0.33 0.06 0.15 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.08

Yt+12 Yt+13 Yt+14 Yt+15 Yt+16 Yt+17 Yt+18 Yt+19

342,808
328,298 342,808
357,437 328,298 342,808
354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298 342,808
382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437 328,298
419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715 357,437
398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682 354,715
348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881 347,682
378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933 339,881
352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930 338,933
401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757 339,930
384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224 382,757
380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227 419,224
15 16 17 18 19 20
389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488 398,227
363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817 348,488
343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824 378,817
390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607 352,824
402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411 401,607
371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466 384,411
355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381 380,466
363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497 389,381
306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542 363,497
398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267 343,542
379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627 390,267
355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259 402,627
394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071 371,259
389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155 355,071
358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107 363,155
394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915 306,107
413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052 398,915
410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932 379,052
379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647 355,932
404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347 394,647
396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282 389,347
455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816 358,282
403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777 394,816
398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306 413,777
425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502 410,306
372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259 379,502
403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470 404,259
449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362 396,470
422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742 455,362
458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075 403,742
409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303 398,075
412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422 425,303
416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487 372,422
487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591 403,487
396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143 449,591
427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822 422,143
446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587 458,822
397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713 409,587
434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614 412,713
455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323 416,614
452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758 487,323
481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046 396,758
428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392 427,046
474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135 446,392
407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399 397,135
484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229 434,399
429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930 455,229
435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869 452,930
449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434 481,869
421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030 428,434
418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870 474,030
441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955 407,870
479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250 484,955
492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838 429,250
421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394 435,838
476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050 449,394
391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546 421,050
479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930 418,546
443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680 441,930
460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757 479,680
440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713 492,757
429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794 421,713
416,138 429,636 440,896 460,163 443,654 479,608 391,060 476,794
 0.12

Yt+20

342,808
328,298
357,437
354,715
347,682
339,881
338,933
339,930
382,757
419,224
398,227
348,488
378,817
352,824
401,607
384,411
380,466
389,381
363,497
343,542
390,267
402,627
371,259
355,071
363,155
306,107
398,915
379,052
355,932
394,647
389,347
358,282
394,816
413,777
410,306
379,502
404,259
396,470
455,362
403,742
398,075
425,303
372,422
403,487
449,591
422,143
458,822
409,587
412,713
416,614
487,323
396,758
427,046
446,392
397,135
434,399
455,229
452,930
481,869
428,434
474,030
407,870
484,955
429,250
435,838
449,394 k
421,050 1
418,546 2
441,930 3
479,680 4
492,757 5
421,713 6