Issues Profit Warning: Leong Hup International
Issues Profit Warning: Leong Hup International
Issues Profit Warning: Leong Hup International
85
Still a good regional play; BUY with 20% lower TP Company Description
Consumer Discretionary
Malaysian broilers was MYR3.99/kg in 2Q19 (low of MYR2.60/kg), down Price Performance
1.15 105
15% YoY from MYR4.68/kg in 2Q18.
1.10 100
Sales volume, nevertheless, rose
1.05 95
Management highlighted that overall 2Q19 sales volume for feed, DOCs,
1.00 90
broilers and eggs increased YoY by 13.9%, 8.1%, 10.7% and 5.9%,
respectively. Feed growth was strong, led by capacity expansion in 0.95 85
Malaysia and Vietnam, in 2018. Operating costs were stable but with 0.90 80
falling ASPs, overall margins contracted in 2Q19.
0.85 75
May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19
Cut forecasts and TP Leong Hup Int'l - (LHS, MYR)
Leong Hup Int'l / Kuala Lumpur Composite Index - (RHS, %)
Taking into account the profit warning, we have cut our net profit
forecasts by 24%/21%/20% for FY19/20/21E on expectations of lower -1M -3M -12M
operating margins. To note that Malaysia’s DOC and broiler ASPs Absolute (%) (10) na na
rebounded by about 32% in July 2019 from the average in 2Q19 and Relative to index (%) (6) na na
should provide some support to earnings in 2H19, if sustained. Assuming Source: FactSet
constant ASPs, we expect capacity expansion to drive topline growth into
FY21. Our revised TP of MYR1.08 remains pegged to the regional peer
average FY20 PER of 17x.
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD PP16832/01/2013 (031128)
SEE PAGE 7 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Leong Hup International
CP Foods ^ 27.75 31,668 19.0 17.7 1.4 1.3 (6.6) (2.9) 7.4 8.2 2.4
CP Indo 4,940 23,321 22.8 19.3 3.8 3.4 (3.9) (5.8) 17.2 17.4 2.0
Japfa Ltd 0.49 2,667 10.3 8.2 0.8 0.7 (11.1) (0.9) 7.0 9.0 2.3
Japfa Comfeed 1,565 5,283 10.5 9.2 1.7 1.5 (3.9) (2.7) 16.1 17.2 3.1
GFPT 18.50 3,074 16.3 14.3 1.7 1.6 25.0 0.7 10.7 10.9 1.7
Regional wtd avg 66,013 19.2 17.0 2.3 2.0 (4.2) (4.6) 11.7 12.1
DuPont analysis
Net profit margin (%) 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.8
Revenue/Assets (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Assets/Equity (x) 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.2
ROAE (%) 15.4 15.0 13.0 12.9 13.5
ROAA (%) 4.4 4.8 3.8 4.0 4.2
Research Offices
REGIONAL MALAYSIA SINGAPORE THAILAND
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research Neel SINHA Head of Research Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research
Regional Head of Research & Economics (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] (65) 6231 5838 [email protected] Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
(65) 6231 5836 • Strategy • Strategy • Industrials [email protected]
[email protected] • SMID Caps – Regional • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services
Desmond CH’NG, ACA
CHUA Su Tye Teerapol Udomvej, CFA
WONG Chew Hann, CA (603) 2297 8680
(65) 6231 5842 [email protected] (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
Regional Head of Institutional Research [email protected]
• REITs [email protected]
(603) 2297 8686 • Banking & Finance
• Healthcare
[email protected] Luis HILADO
LIAW Thong Jung Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research
(603) 2297 8688 [email protected] (65) 6231 5848 [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530
ONG Seng Yeow • Telcos • Transport
• Oil & Gas Services- Regional [email protected]
Regional Head of Retail Research
(65) 6231 5839 LAI Gene Lih, CFA Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI Deputy Head
ONG Chee Ting, CA (66) 2658 5000 ext 1400
[email protected] (65) 6231 5832 [email protected]
(603) 2297 8678 [email protected] [email protected]
• Technology • Healthcare
• Plantations - Regional • Energy • Petrochem
ECONOMICS
Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT
Mohshin AZIZ (65) 6231 5840 [email protected]
Suhaimi ILIAS (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470
Chief Economist • Banks • Consumer [email protected]
• Aviation - Regional • Petrochem
Malaysia | Philippines | China • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
(603) 2297 8682 SZE Jia Min
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (65) 6231 5845 [email protected] Suttatip PEERASUB
[email protected] (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430
• Consumer
• Gaming – Regional • Media [email protected]
CHUA Hak Bin • Media • Commerce
Regional Thematic Macroeconomist INDIA
TAN Chi Wei, CFA Termporn TANTIVIVAT
(65) 6231 5830 (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] Jigar SHAH Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1520
[email protected] • Power • Telcos (91) 22 4223 2632 [email protected] [email protected]
LEE Ju Ye • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement • Property
WONG Wei Sum, CFA
Singapore | Thailand Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(603) 2297 8679 [email protected] Neerav DALAL
(65) 6231 5844 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404
• Property (91) 22 4223 2606 [email protected]
[email protected] [email protected]
LEE Yen Ling • Software Technology • Telcos • Transportation • Small cap
Linda LIU (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT
Singapore | Vietnam • Glove • Ports • Shipping • Healthcare Vishal PERIWAL (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401
(65) 6231 5847 (91) 22 4223 2605 [email protected]
[email protected] Ivan YAP [email protected] • Media • Electronics
(603) 2297 8612 [email protected] • Infrastructure Sorrabhol VIRAMETEEKUL
Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI • Automotive • Semiconductor • Technology
(603) 2082 6818 Head of Digital Research
Kshitiz PRASAD (66) 2658 5000 ext 1550
[email protected] Kevin WONG (91) 22 4223 2607 [email protected]
(603) 2082 6824 [email protected] [email protected] • Food, Transportation
Ramesh LANKANATHAN • REITs • Consumer Discretionary
(603) 2297 8685 • Banks Wijit ARAYAPISIT
[email protected] Adrian WONG, CFA (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450
(603) 2297 8675 [email protected] INDONESIA [email protected]
FX • Constructions
• Strategist
Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research
(62) 21 8066 8680 Kritsapong PATAN
Saktiandi SUPAAT
Jade TAM [email protected] (66) 2658 5000 ext 1310
Head of FX Research
(603) 2297 8687 [email protected] • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement [email protected]
(65) 6320 1379
• Consumer Staples • Chartist
[email protected] Rahmi MARINA
Mohd Hafiz HASSAN (62) 21 8066 8689 VIETNAM
Christopher WONG
(603) 2082 6819 [email protected] [email protected]
(65) 6320 1347 LE Hong Lien, ACCA
• Building Materials • Small & Mid Caps • Banking & Finance
[email protected] Head of Institutional Research
Aurellia SETIABUDI
Amirah AZMI (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8181
Tan Yanxi (62) 21 8066 8691
(603) 2082 8769 [email protected] [email protected]
(65) 6320 1378 [email protected]
• Media • Plantations • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified
[email protected] • Property
Janni ASMAN LE Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
Fiona LIM TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8082
(603) 2082 6858 [email protected] (62) 21 8066 8687
(65) 6320 1374 [email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected] • Oil & Gas
Nik Ihsan RAJA ABDULLAH, MSTA, CFTe • Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail
STRATEGY (603) 2297 8694 Luthfi RIDHO QUAN Trong Thanh
[email protected] (62) 21 8066 8690 (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8184
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY [email protected] [email protected]
Global Strategist • Economics • Banks
(65) 6231 5836 NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen
[email protected] PHILIPPINES Head of Retail Research
Minda OLONAN Head of Research (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8081
Willie CHAN
(63) 2 849 8840 [email protected]
Hong Kong | Regional • Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking
(852) 2268 0631 [email protected]
[email protected] • Strategy • Conglomerates TRUONG Quang Binh
Katherine TAN Deputy Head of Retail Research
FIXED INCOME (63) 2 849 8843 (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8087
[email protected] [email protected]
Winson PHOON, ACA • Banks • Conglomerates • Ports • Rubber Plantation • Tyres & Tubes • Oil & Gas
(65) 6812 8807
[email protected] Luis HILADO TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep
(65) 6231 5848 [email protected] (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8208
Se Tho Mun Yi • Telcos [email protected]
(603) 2074 7606 • Technology • Utilities • Construction
[email protected] Romel LIBO-ON
NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi
(63) 2 849 8844 (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8084
[email protected]
[email protected]
• Property
• Port Operation • Pharmaceutical
Kayzer LLANDA • Food & Beverage
(63) 2 849 8839 NGUYEN Thanh Lam
[email protected] (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8086
• Utilities [email protected]
• Technical Analysis
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Historical recommendations and target price: Leong Hup International (LHIB MK)
25 Jun
Buy : RM1.4
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
May-19 Aug-19
Leong Hup International
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment
ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Indonesia London
Iwan Atmadjaja Greg Smith
[email protected] [email protected]
(62) 21 8066 8555 Tel: (44) 207-332-0221
Philippines
Keith Roy
[email protected]
Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
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