Notes On Risk Management
Notes On Risk Management
Notes On Risk Management
Risk management consists of - risk perception, risk analysis, and risk preparedness.
Risks may be divided into three tiers. In the lower band, the public readily accepts risks
because benefits are felt to outweigh the disadvantages. In the upper band, risks are regarded
as completely unacceptable and must be reduced even at very high cost or, if not possible, the
activities must cease. The intermediate region is one in which decisions on risk reduction are
made by trading off associated costs and benefits.
Traditionally, the field of risk management has three elements - identification of risks, risk
assessment and implementaton of solutions and plans.
identification
quantification
evaluation
acceptance
aversion
control
Risk Management
Risk Assessment
Risk Control
Risk Determination Risk Evaluation
implement:
- protection works
Risk Risk Estimation Risk Risk Aversion - non-structural
Identification Acceptence measures
determine: determine:
identify: - probability of establish: - degree of risk
- new risks occurances - risk references reduction
- change in risk - magnitiude of - risk referents - degree of risk
parameters consequence value avoidance
Steps in Risk Management
Source: Keynote address by Roger Smook
at the Risk Assessment and Management Congress
in Ogaki, Japan - September 1997
Risk assessment includes risk determination and risk evaluation. Risk management includes
risk assessment and risk control.
Risk determination involves the related processes of risk identification and risk estimation.
Risk identification is the process of observation and recognition of new risk parameters or
new relationships among existing risk parameters, or perception of a change in the
magnitudes of existing risk parameters.
Risk, at the general level, involves two major elements: the occurrence probability of an
adverse event and the consequences of the event. Risk estimation, consequent-ly, is an
estimation process, starting from the occurrence probability and ending at the consequence
values.
Risk acceptance implies that a risk taker is willing to accept some risks to obtain a gain or
benefit, if the risk cannot possibly be avoided or controlled. The acceptance level is a
reference level against which a risk is determined and then compared. If the determined risk
level is below the acceptance level, the risk is deemed acceptable. If it is deemed
unacceptable and avoidable, steps may be taken to control the risk or the activity should be
ceased. The perception and the acceptance of risks vary with the nature of the risks and
depend upon many underlying factors. The risk may involve a "dread" hazard or a common
hazard, be encountered occupationally or non-occupationally, have immediate or delayed
effects and may effect average or especially sensitive people or systems.
Risk aversion is the control action, taken to avoid or eliminate the risk, regulate or modify the
activities to reduce the magnitude and/or frequency of adverse affects, reduce the
vulnerability of exposed persons, property or in this case urban systems, develop and
implement mitigation and recovery procedures, and institute loss-reimbursement and loss-
distribution schemes.
PRINCIPLES OF RISK MANAGEMENT
Introduction
The term "Risk" has been used in many different applications. It can be applied
to safety and it can also be applied to business investment (business risk, project
risk etc.). Risk normally refers to something that is "uncertain" and that
uncertainty normally carries a loss or adverse effect. However, in the context of
health and safety management, the meaning of "risk" mainly refers to risk of
having accident, risk of having harms.
Therefore, the dictionary definition is not applicable and should not be used in the
context of safety management. The word "safety" should be defined with such a
meaning that reflects the reality. There are a number of such definitions by
various academics and authorities. Some of these definitions are quoted on
below :
From the definitions quoted above, it is apparent that the word "safety" should
only be define as a _ elative and acceptable state” for which the risks are judged
to be acceptable.
The terms "risk" and "hazards" are commonly used in the above quoted definition
and they are in fact the key words in the context of risk management.
Hazards Defined
Hazards are defined as the "potential for harm or damage to people, property, or
the “environment" and are the "source of risk". Hazards include the
characteristics of things and the "actions" or "inactions" of people. They are the
"base" of all safety concerns, whether it is occupational safety, product
safety, environmental affairs, fire etc. In all of those fields of safety endeavor,
virtually all activities are to deal with the possible actions or inactions of people
and the characteristics of properties, equipment, machinery, or materials that
present the potential for harm or damage.
Risk Defined
As mentioned above, risk means something uncertain and the uncertainty carries
some adverse effects. In other words, risk is made up of probability of
occurrence (uncertainty) and severity of consequence (adverse effects).
Lowrance in Of Acceptable Risk : Science and the Determination of Safety
defines risk as "A measure of the probability and severity of adverse
effects". By this definition, when we talk about risk, we are actually talking about
how likely will an adverse effect (harm) will be realized, and if it is realized, how
serious (injuries, deaths etc.) will be the consequences. A classic example is the
risk of an aeroplane crash. The probability of an aeroplane crash is extremely
small (in terms of
crash per total flying hours of all aeroplane). However, the consequence of the
crash of an aeroplane will be catastrophic. The risk of traveling on aeroplanes
can then be calculated by taking into account the two factors of probability and
severity.