SCM - Group 5

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DEMAND FORECASTING: FORECASTING TECHNIQUES:

• Estimate of future • Qualitative forecasting


demands – planning and is based on opinion and
business decisions intuition.
• Future are unknown – • Quantitative forecasting
errors. uses mathematical
models and historical data
• Choice of appropriate
to make forecasts.
forecasting techniques
– to reduce errors.
• To consider factors that • Time series models are
influence demand, impact the most frequently used
of these factors, whether it among all the forecasting
still influence future models.
demand

CHAPTER 5: DEMAND FORECASTING & COLLABORATION


PLANNING, FORECASTING, REPLENISHMENT

FORECASTING TECHNIQUES: FORECASTING TECHNIQUES:

• Qualitative forecasting • Quantitative forecasting


Generally used when data
Time series forecasting- based
are limited, unavailable, or
on the assumption that the future
not currently relevant.
is an extension of the past.
Forecast depends on skill
Historical data is used to predict
& experience of
future demand.
forecaster(s) & available
information. Associative forecasting-
assumes that one or more factors
Four qualitative models used
(independent variables) predict
are:
future demand.
1. Jury of executive
It is generally recommended to
2. Delphi method
use a combination of
3. Sales force composite
quantitative and qualitative
4. Consumer survey techniques.
FORECASTING TECHNIQUES (continue) FORECASTING TECHNIQUE(Continue)
Components of Time Series- Data should Time Series Forecasting Models
be plotted to detect for the following
components: – Simple Moving Average
Forecasting Model.
– Trend variations: either Simple moving average
increasing or decreasing forecasting method uses
historical data to generate a
– Cyclical variations: wave-
forecast. Works well when
like movements that are
demand is fairly stable over
longer than a year
time.
– Seasonal variations: show
peaks and valleys that
repeat over a consistent
interval such as hours, days,
weeks, months, years, or
seasons
– Random variations: due to
unexpected or unpredictable
events

CHAPTER 5: DEMAND FORECASTING & COLLABORATION


PLANNING, FORECASTING, REPLENISHMENT

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