International Journal of Science, Environment ISSN 2278-3687 (O)

and Technology, Vol. 4, No 5, 2015, 1265 – 1270 2277-663X (P)

RISK BASED MAINTENANCE (RBM) MODELING OF

PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY USING
FAHP- DELPHI TECHNIQUES
Saeed Nazari1, Noreddin Ghanbari 2*, Najmeh Karami3, Masoom Nazari4
and Sajad Mousavi5
1
Lecturer of Occupational Health Engineering, Ardabil University of Medical Sciences
2
PhD student in Health Crisis Management, Shakhes Research Esfahan University
3
Lecturer of Architecture Engineering, Islamic Azad University branch of Qods
4
PhD student in Electronic – Computer Engineering, Tabriz University
5
PhD student in Industrial Management, University of Polytechnic Di Milano
Email: [email protected] (*Corresponding Author)

Abstract: The progress of technology has caused operating of many processes and resulted
in more complexity of the process industries and the safe operations of their operation are at
least as important as their design. In addition, the cost of maintenance is a considerable part
of the total life cycle in industries and researches proved that some critical components are
responsible for the most of the downtime at workplaces. Therefore, an improvement in the
maintenance practices which focused on risk based approach for critical components
improves reliability and safety; at the same time can reduces maintenance costs. Thus, we
aim to prepare a domestic risk management model for based on Risk Based Maintenance
(RBM) using FAHP technique. The initial steps involve literature review followed by
subsequent interviews with experienced practitioners to identify their failures. All of the
RBM criteria have been localized by expert team and risk number could be calculated
according to these factors. However, there are several tools to analysis the risks of them, but
the classic approach always comes with uncertainty. Thus, FAHP model will be introduced as
an applicable approach for modeling of the risk management to overcome this limitation.
Overall, by applying this technique, it will be anticipated that the safety of system will be
improved, the environmental impacts and maintenance costs would be reduced, and the spare
parts will be allocated where necessary. Finally, this technique results in prioritization of the
process’s safety measures according to their risk levels.
Keywords: Risk, Fuzzy, Safety, Process, Hazards

Introduction

The progress of technology has caused operating of many processes and resulted in more
complexity of chemical process industries, so that one of the main challenges for these
companies are to manage existing assets in the complex infrastructure(1, 2). However, beside
of valuable application of these industries, there are potential risks associated with their
chemical processes (Figure 1).
Received Aug 15, 2015 * Published Oct 2, 2015 * www.ijset.net
1266 Saeed Nazari, Noreddin Ghanbari, Najmeh Karami, Masoom Nazari and Sajad Mousavi

Accidents like in Bhopal and Basle led to the development of a regulatory regime to control
the risks in these industries (3). Thus, the safe operations of these systems are at least as
important as their design(4)so that designers and operators have to find appropriate solutions
to ensure safety of operations as well as being economically viable.

3%

31%
36%

30%

Fires Explosions Toxic Release Other

Figure 1: Types of large hydrocarbon chemical plant accident (5)

On the other hand, the cost of maintenance is a considerable part of these industries (6-8).
Researches have shown that critical components such as pumps, compressors, vessels
account for the most of downtime in this practice. Therefore, an improvement of maintenance
practices that focused on risk-based approach for critical components may improve the
reliability and safety as well as reduce maintenance costs(1, 2, 9-12).
There are different risk-based approaches ranging from purely qualitative to the highly
quantitative. Based on literature, they are different from one industry to another according to
its specific critical conditions (13). However, the RBM approach is one of hybrid risk
assessment techniques that consider the combination of quantitative and qualitative
techniques to reduce overall risks in the operating assets(14).
Studies showed that there is uncertainty in the judgement of experts’ knowledge and
experience and it’s necessary to consider it within expert based risk assessment. However,
methods like classical statistic, probabilistic, sensitivity analysis and possibility are
recommended to solve this issue, but there are common opinion that fuzzy logic is one of the
best ways in order to deal with this kind of uncertainty and the vagueness of human’s
judgments(15-17). Thus, Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB software was used for
estimation of risk to overcome this limitation.
Proposed RBM Model
The initial steps involve literature review to identify critical assets and equipment failures.
The subsequent interviews discussed these issues with experienced panel,made up of
 Risk Based Maintenance (RBM) Modeling of Petrochemical Industry …. 1267

academic professor, turbine operators, maintenance engineer, and plant and process
engineering, to form proposed approach.
This approach was performed in Turbine Unit within Petrochemical Company as a case study
in order to demonstrate its usefulness, characteristics and for efficient maintenance
scheduling. However, through three rounds of Delphi process experts helped to filter all the
information to come up with a series of the most important strategic actions to the RBM of
assets. Also, HAZOP1and FMEA2 studies conducted by the Delphi team for identifying
failures and calculate final risk using literature review and finally proposed a model (1, 18-
22)(Figure 2).
Financial Loss (FL)
Production loss (PL)
Frequency (F) System Performance Loss (SPL)
Risk Score Maintenance Cost (MC)
Health (H)
Total Consequences (CT)
HSE Safety (S)
Property Damage (PD) Environment (E)

Figure 2: Proposed Model for Risk Analysis of Chemical Process Industries

In order to weight risk indices in different level, all factors are compared with both of Expert
Choice software (Version 11.0) and designed AHP algorithm on MATLAB used experts’
empirical judgments (23-25). However, expert team proposed the following formula to
calculate the Non-Fuzzy Risk (Rnf) of every failure by considering its components’ weighting
factor (W) which came from pair comparison:

 (
) = ( × ) × ( × )
( × ) + ( × )
 =
∑
( × ) + ( × ) + ( × )
 =
∑
( × ) + ( × ) + ( × ) + ( × )
 =
∑
The panel finalized guidance tables in order to rank these criteria for calculation in thetotal
risk of each failure. For simplification and also reduction of experts’ error, all of these scales
categorized from 1 to 5 (Five for the high failure rate or higher impact and on the other hand
one for less frequent failure or less consequences).

1
Hazard and Operation
2
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
1268 Saeed Nazari, Noreddin Ghanbari, Najmeh Karami, Masoom Nazari and Sajad Mousavi

The engineering and expert knowledge base used to establish the set of rules by the collection
of IF-THEN statements (e.g. Rule 1 if (frequency is very low) and (consequence is very low)
then the risk is very low). Then, the fuzzy risk (Rf) value calculated using the failure
consequences and frequency as input and risk number as an output. Finally, the RBM
calculated by summing up the individual FR out of the total number of failures (N) within the
subsystem as follows:
∑*+,
*

!"(subsyetem) =
-
Conclusion
The proposed model applied in the Turbine and Generator Unit of the Petrochemical
Company as a case study. Totally, 7 subsystems and 32 P&IDs have been assessed. Results
of proposed risk models for maintenance program showed that oil system is the most
important component for the maintenance. However, 39 recommendations suggested to
mitigate failures in selected asset.
Furthermore, the expert team believed that using Fuzzy Logic and AHP’s pair comparison
weighting, would improve the performance of the system. Reduction in HSE consequences,
cut in maintenance cost, decrease in property damage, and an allocation of spare parts where
necessary were the main reasons.
Discussion
Overall, this model contribute to the prioritization of recommended maintenance practices,
according to their risk levels and using this technique positively effects the scheduling of
these activities. Of course, the robustness, sensitivity analysis, and safety integrity level (SIL)
studies for further researches are recommended by the authors in order to find the application
of this approach in other industries.
Acknowledgement
Authors really appreciate the endless collaboration of engineers, managers, and other
practitioners in the Petrochemical Company. Also, many thanks to academic staff from
Tarbiat Modares and Ardabil Universities who contribute positively to this paper.
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