1.

The variation that might existing between the quarters can be best understood by the graph of the quarterly sales

Quarterly Sales
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Now completing the regression analysis in order to answer rest of the parts

Table-1

Regression
Analysis

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression
Statistics

Multiple R 0.618941

R Square 0.383088

Adjusted R
Square 0.339023

Standard
Error 192.0993

Observatio
ns 16

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significan
 ce F

320815 320815.1 8.6936

Regression 1 .1 06 73 0.010577

516629 36902.13
Residual 14 .9 53

Total 15 837445

Coefficie Standar Lower Upper

nts d Error t Stat P-value 95% 95%

100.73 17.65128 5.81E- 1994.2

Intercept 1778.15 77 38 11 1562.089 11

time 10.418 2.948503 0.0105 53.062

period 30.71765 05 56 77 8.37316 13

Also analysis based on time series is given below in table-2

Centre
d
Quart Differe Foreca
erly nce st
Sal 4 8 Movin from Seaso De- (Trend
Peri es Quar Quar g Origin nal seasonal Trend (Y = +
Ye Quar od ('00 ter ter Avera al Factor ised 1778.15+30. Season
ar ter (t) 0) Total Total ge Value s Data 7177t) al) Error MSE MAD

(J) = (D) (K) > (J) & (L) =

(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) - (I) (C) (K)+(I) (M)

-
20 164 172.1 1818.13 1636.7 9.262 85.79 9.262
16 1 1 6 3 02 1808.868 375 5 406 5

-
20 194 124.3 1824.67 1963.9 14.91 222.4 14.91
16 2 2 9 281 19 1839.585 135 35 132 35

-
20 206 1866. 201.87 220.7 1847.29 2091.0 23.00 529.2 23.00
16 3 3 8 125 5 031 69 1870.303 062 62 864 62

- -
20 173 1898. 160.62 178.8 1916.83 1722.1 15.81 250.2 15.81
16 4 4 8 7401 625 5 39 85 1901.021 823 77 01 77
 - -
20 177 1492 1931. 158.75 172.1 1945.13 1759.6 13.39 179.3 13.39
17 1 5 3 7528 9 750 0 3 02 1931.739 083 17 379 17

-
20 208 1518 1964. 118.00 124.3 1957.67 2086.7 4.784 22.88 4.784
17 2 6 2 7661 9 000 0 281 19 1962.456 843 3 977 3

-
20 220 1545 1995. 204.75 220.7 1979.29 2213.8 13.87 192.5 13.87
17 3 7 0 7793 4 250 0 031 69 1993.174 77 70 718 70

- -
20 186 1571 2031. 167.62 178.8 2042.83 1845.0 18.94 358.9 18.94
17 4 8 4 7919 2 625 5 39 85 2023.892 531 69 866 69

- -
20 189 1596 2075. 178.75 172.1 2069.13 1882.4 14.52 210.8 14.52
18 1 9 7 8043 2 750 0 3 02 2054.609 791 09 568 09

20 224 1625 2108. 140.37 124.3 2124.67 2209.6 39.34 1548. 39.34
18 2 10 9 8210 3 625 5 281 19 2085.327 551 49 019 49

20 238 1660 2129. 256.37 220.7 2165.29 2336.7 49.25 2425. 49.25
18 3 11 6 8396 6 625 5 031 69 2116.045 478 22 777 22

- - -
20 194 1686 2148. 207.37 178.8 2119.83 1967.9 26.92 724.8 26.92
18 4 12 1 8473 9 375 5 39 85 2146.762 239 39 941 39

- - -
20 198 1703 2166. 178.00 172.1 2160.13 2005.3 17.34 301.0 17.34
19 1 13 8 8564 7 000 0 3 02 2177.48 499 99 187 99

-
20 230 1718 2192. 115.50 124.3 2183.67 2332.5 24.52 601.5 24.52
19 2 14 8 8623 7 500 0 281 19 2208.198 259 59 21 59

20 246 1732 220.7 2247.29 2459.6 8.381 70.24 8.381

19 3 15 8 8705 8 031 69 2238.916 186 4 745 4

- -
20 207 1754 178.8 2249.83 2090.7 19.79 391.8 19.79
19 4 16 1 8835 0 39 85 2269.633 947 47 285 47

MSE 507.2
>> 277

MAD 19.63
>> 09
 Table-3

Seasonal
Factor
Calculation

Year 1 2 3 4

-
2016 201.875 160.625

-
2017 -158.75 118 204.75 167.625

-
2018 -178.75 140.375 256.375 207.375

Qtr
2019 -178 115.5 Avg

- - -
Average 171.833 124.625 221 178.542 1.1875

-
Corr Factor 0.29688

Adj.
Seasonal - -
Index -172.13 124.3281 220.703125 178.839 5.9375

Now

2. A regression line is the curve of the line which nearly tries to fit all the points and it is given by the
Y = mt+c where
m= 30.7177
c= 1778.15

so the equation would be Y = 30.7177t + 1778.15

3. Forecasted value is given in the table no.-3

The time series model that is taken to calculate the forecast is Yt = trend + seasonal
4. Errors has been calculated in the table-2

5. Mean squared error is 507.2277 as calculated and shown in the table no-2
6. Mean absolute deviation is 19.6309 as shown in the table-2
7. The control limits as shown in the table-1 as upper limit for time period = 53.06213 and lower limit= 8.37316

For the part 8 and 9th following are the given forecast for the next 4 quarters

2020 (Forecast) 1 17 -172.13 2300.351 2128.2207

2020 (Forecast) 2 18 124.3281 2331.069 2455.3967

2020 (Forecast) 3 19 220.7031 2361.786 2582.4894

2020 (Forecast) 4 20 -178.839 2392.504 2213.6655