Avenue Supermarts LTD.: Margin Reset Underway
Avenue Supermarts LTD.: Margin Reset Underway
Avenue Supermarts LTD.: Margin Reset Underway
10%
9.1% -181bps
9%
+48bps 8.0%
8%
+26bps
7%
5%
OPM - 2QFY18 Gross Margin Staff Costs Net Other Overheads OPM - 2QFY19
38.9% 37.2%
40% 36%
35.7%
31.4%
10% 9%
0% 0%
1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19
Source: Company, JM Financial Source: Company, JM Financial
6%
13%
4%
11%
2%
9% 0%
1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19
Exhibit 8. Quarterly Revenue per square feet (INR) Exhibit 9. Quarterly EBITDA per square feet (INR)
Qtrly revenue per sq ft (period-end) - INR EBITDA per sq ft (period-end) - INR
10,000 1,000 958
9,554
9,306
9,119
9,000 8,776 845
8,350
800 757 764
8,000 7,775
7,000 601
600
6,000
5,000 400
1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19
Source: Company, JM Financial Source: Company, JM Financial
5.0 5.1
4.9
5
4.4
4.1 4.1 4.2
2
4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19
Source: Company, JM Financial
Change in net working capital -2,699 -2,128 -2,909 -3,376 -4,070 -4,289 -5,571 -6,842 -8,308 -8,566 -8,631 -11,334 -11,485 -12,984 -14,725 -15,032 -15,800 -17,570 -19,303
Capex -6,683 -9,014 -8,678 -9,951 -11,750 -13,282 -16,068 -19,111 -20,414 -23,983 -25,652 -27,486 -29,499 -32,674 -35,080 -37,647 -42,236 -45,255 -48,504
Fre e Ca s h Fl o w -2 ,5 8 2 -1 ,6 1 0 -6 5 1 ,3 4 0 2 ,8 1 4 6 ,0 0 1 7 ,9 1 4 1 0 ,9 4 7 1 7 ,3 1 8 2 2 ,8 4 2 3 2 ,2 2 5 4 1 ,1 7 9 5 2 ,4 2 5 6 3 ,1 4 5 7 6 ,7 0 1 9 3 ,9 8 5 1 0 7 ,3 8 2 1 2 3 ,5 8 6 1 4 1 ,8 3 9
Discount Factor 0.92 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.61 0.55 0.49 0.45 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.19
Di s c o u n te d FCFF 1 ,2 3 9 2 ,3 4 4 4 ,5 0 3 5 ,3 5 0 6 ,6 6 7 9 ,5 0 1 1 1 ,2 9 0 1 4 ,3 4 8 1 6 ,5 1 7 1 8 ,9 4 3 2 0 ,5 5 5 2 2 ,4 9 2 2 4 ,8 2 8 2 5 ,5 5 5 2 6 ,4 9 5 2 7 ,3 9 4
Fa d e Pe ri o d FY3 6 FY3 7 FY3 8 FY3 9 FY4 0 FY4 1 FY4 2 FY4 3 FY4 4 FY4 5
FCFF 161,685 183,053 205,821 229,823 254,839 280,597 306,779 333,020 358,919 384,043
% g ro wth 14.0% 13.2% 12.4% 11.7% 10.9% 10.1% 9.3% 8.6% 7.8% 7.0%
Va l u a ti o n
PV of explicit forecast 238,020
PV of Fade period 282,909
PV of terminal value 552,983
En te rp ri s e Va l u e 1 ,0 7 3 ,9 1 2
Le s s :
Net Debt -3,044
Minority interest 7
Va l u e fo r e q u i ty s h a re h o l d e rs 1 ,0 7 6 ,9 4 9
No. of shares - mn 624
Ta rg e t p ri c e - I NR /s h a re 1726
WACC 1 1 .0 %
Te rmi n a l g ro wth ra te 6 .0 %
Page 5
Avenue Supermarts Ltd. 13 October 2018
Ca s h Fl o w s ta te me n t (I NR mn ) Du p o n t An a l ys i s
Y/E M a rc h FY1 7 A FY1 8 A FY1 9 E FY2 0 E FY2 1 E Y/E M a rc h FY1 7 A FY1 8 A FY1 9 E FY2 0 E FY2 1 E
Profit before Tax 7,600 12,036 14,797 18,982 24,435 Net Margin 4.0% 5.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1%
Depn. & Amort. 1,278 1,590 1,905 2,339 2,845 Asset Turnover (x) 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.7 3.9
Net Interest Exp. / Inc. (-) 934 -98 -213 -287 -492 Leverage Factor (x) 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Inc (-) / Dec in WCap. -2,704 -2,427 -2,909 -3,376 -4,070 RoE 17.9% 18.0% 18.7% 19.9% 20.9%
Others 27 226 0 0 0 Ke y R a ti o s
Taxes Paid -2,582 -4,027 -5,223 -6,505 -8,374 Y/E M a rc h FY1 7 A FY1 8 A FY1 9 E FY2 0 E FY2 1 E
O p e ra ti n g Ca s h Fl o w 4 ,5 5 3 7 ,3 0 0 8 ,3 5 7 1 1 ,1 5 1 1 4 ,3 4 4 BV/Share (Rs) 61.6 74.8 90.2 110.1 135.9
Capex -6,354 -9,087 -8,678 -9,951 -11,750 ROIC (%) 17.8% 19.9% 19.4% 20.6% 22.0%
Free Cash Flow -1,801 -1,787 -322 1,200 2,594 ROE (%) 17.9% 18.0% 18.7% 19.9% 20.9%
-Inc/dec in investments -206 13,171 0 0 0 Net Debt-equity ratio (x) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Other current assets -18,256 532 414 537 730 PER 182.9 114.5 91.5 70.6 54.7
I n ve s ti n g Ca s h Fl o w -2 4 ,8 1 6 4 ,6 1 6 -8 ,2 6 5 -9 ,4 1 4 -1 1 ,0 2 0 PBV 22.9 18.8 15.6 12.8 10.4
Inc/(dec) in capital 18,406 0 0 0 0 EV/EBITDA 89.1 64.8 53.2 41.6 32.6
Dividend+Tax Thereon 0 0 0 0 0 EV/Net Sales 7.4 5.8 4.4 3.5 2.8
Inc/dec in loans 3,050 -10,791 0 -659 -560 Debtor days 1 1 1 1 1
Other assets -1,203 -800 -351 -325 -276 Inventory days 29 28 29 29 29
Fi n a n c i n g Ca s h Fl o w 2 0 ,2 5 3 -1 1 ,5 9 1 -3 5 1 -9 8 4 -8 3 6 Creditor days 14 12 13 12 12
I n c / De c (-) i n Ca s h -11 325 -259 754 2,488 Source: Company, J M Financial
Opening cash balance 340 349 674 415 1,169
Closing cash balance 329 674 415 1,169 3,657
Source: Company, J M Financial
APPENDIX I
Definition of ratings
Rating Meaning
Buy Total expected returns of more than 15%. Total expected return includes dividend yields.
Hold Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the current market price.
Sell Price expected to move downwards by more than 10%
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