Pre Master Plan Solar Energy Production in Palestine: December 2016
Pre Master Plan Solar Energy Production in Palestine: December 2016
December 2016
Prepared by :
Palestinian Environmental NGOs Network – Friends of Earth Palestine
Dr. Ayman Rabi Dr. Isam Ghanem
Pre Master Plan
Solar Energy Production in Palestine:
Opportunities and Challenges
December 2016
Acknowledgments
Acronyms 3
List of Figures 5
List of Tables 6
1. Introduction 7
2. Objectives 8
3. Methodology 9
4. Situation Analysis 10
4.1. Electricity supply and Demand 10
4.2. Electricity Demand 14
4.3. Analysis of solar irradiation in Palestine 20
4.4. Metrological data analysis 26
1. Temperature effect on solar irradiation 26
2. Humidity and wind effect on solar irradiation 30
3. Sky Clearance Index 32
4. Potential solar energy production in Palestine 34
5. Enabling Governance Setup 37
5.1. Policies and Strategies 37
5.2. Legal and regulatory environment 38
6. Challenges and Constraints 41
6.1. Political Situation 41
6.2. Electric System Capacity and Efficiency 41
7. Economic feasibility of photovoltaic power plants 42
7.1. Electricity prices and PV systems in Palestine 42
7.2. Investment Cost 43
7.3. Economic Feasibility Analysis 43
8. Conclusions and Recommendations 46
The main objective of this pre master plan is to define the main
alternatives and potential of solar energy production in Palestine and
to propose the best locations for the production of solar energy across
Palestinian Areas.
Percentage of
N Electricity source Quantity (GWh)
total supply
1 Israel (IEC) 4702 88.7%
2 Gaza Electricity Company 392.3 7.4%
3 Egypt 121.9 2.3%
4 Jordan 84.8 1.6%
Total 5301 100%
(a) (b)
Figure 3: Monthly household electricity consumption (a) and Electricity
consumption by Sector (b)
This huge variation is largely due to population number from one part
and also the commercial and light industrial activity presence on the
other part. As population grows and development needs increase, it is
also expected that the need will increase as well. The next section will
address the demand for electricity in various parts of West Bank and
Gaza.
Based on the above two scenarios electricity demand during the coming
decade up to 2030 is expected to be as follows:
1. BAU Scenario:
It is projected that electricity demand will reach 4372 GWh/year in the
West Bank while it will reach 3131 GWh/year in Gaza toward 2030 as
shown in Figure 6.
2. Conservation Scenario
It is projected that electricity demand will reach 4153 GWh/year in the
West Bank while it will reach 2974.7 GWh/year in Gaza toward 2030 as
shown in Figure 8.
It can be noticed from the three tables that they have very similar patterns
in terms of GHI values. In addition, differences between sites can be
expressed by relative standard deviation, which compares monthly and
yearly values. Small variability of values is caused by similar geographical
characteristics, and this indicates that all sites will experience similar PV
power performance. But, it’s good to note that uncertainty of mentioned
data can be estimated from 4-9% for monthly GHI, 5-10% for GTI, and
10 -15% for DNI according to the Atlas of Solar Resources of the State
of Palestine. Moreover, satellite based data can’t replace long-term
metrological data. The last is very essential for assessment, engineering
design and hence for investment costs.
The other aspect of mentioned data is the type of solar technology
used. In case of investing in solar concentrators (CPV and CSP) Direct
Normal Irradiation (DNI) is the relevant solar parameter. If investing in
PV systems, Global Tilted Irradiation (GTI), i.e. sum of direct and diffuse
solar radiation falling at the surface area is the relevant and most
important solar parameter for potential evaluation.
Solar Energy Production in Palestine | 23
Since the most common investments in solar energy are PV power
plants, Global Tilted Irradiation (GTI) is therefore the most important
parameter to be considered, figure 13. shows average monthly values of
potential energy production during the year.
A) drawing is based
on measured data
2014 from cen-
tral metrological
department (high
irradiation levels
area)
B) drawing is based
on data from
Jericho metrolog-
ical station (2008,
2009)
(medium irradia-
tion level area)
C) drawing is based
on measured data
2014 from cen-
tral metrological
department (low
irradiation levels
area)
Relative humid- 76.5 75.6 71 62.3 59.9 64.3 66.2 68.9 69 67.4 64.4 71.3
ity (%)
Rate of wind 13.8 13.6 10.8 13.5 12 11.6 12 11.7 12.1 11.3 11.5 11.6
speed, km/h
Evaporation, 2046.9 (mm) among the year
Shining hours
(h) in Jordan 5.8 6.8 8 9.4 11.2 11.9 11.9 10.9 9.8 7.8 7.5 5.7
valley areas
Shining hours
(h) in West
6 7 8 9.5 11.5 12.3 12.5 11.5 9.9 8.1 7.8 5.3
Bank middle
areas
Shining hours
(h) in West
5.4 6.1 8 9.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.5 9.2 7.6 7.2 5.5
Bank South-
ern areas
Annual rate of shining hours at which PV systems work at full capacity (h) 5.7
Based on data in table 8, the annual rate of daily shining hours is 8.64h/
day in the southern part of the West Bank, 8.9h/day in Jordan river area
and 9.1h/day in the middle West Bank areas, while the annual rate of
shining hours in Palestine at which PV systems work at full capacity is
5.7 h. Based on measured shining hours data, in addition to Palestine
monthly rate of potential solar hours (from sunrise to sunset calculated
on 15th of each month) a clearance index if formed in figure 16.
Tab. 8: Annual average of electricity yield for fixed PV system at optimum angle
Palestinian areas with different irradiation levels
Level A Level B Level C
PV electricity yield 1765 1715 1703
for fixed-mounted
modules at optimum
angle
kWh/KWp kWh/KWp kWh/KWp
Optimum angle 27° 27° 27°
System perfor- 78.1% 76.5% 78.0%
mance ratio (PR) for
fixed-mounted PV
Source: Solar Atlas of the State of Palestine
In addition the Net Present Value (NPV) of the investment for 20 years
of assumed life time of the PV system was calculated under various
assumptions as follows:
1. Assuming that the land required for the PV’s is purchased at cost
(10000$/dunum). In this case the NPV is positive with value of
191,793$ at interest rate of 6% and will be better when we apply the
environmental friendly rate of 3.5% with value of NPV is $519977
while the Internal rate of return IRR is nearly 8% as summarized in
Table 11.
2. Assuming that the land required for the PV is rented at cost 500$/
dunum/year. In this case the NPV is positive with value of 252,147$
at interest rate of 6% and will be better when we apply the
environmental friendly rate of 3.5% with value of NPV is $561916
while the Internal rate of return IRR is nearly 9% as summarized in
Table 12.
Table 12: The Net Present Value (NPV) assuming that the land required for the
PV’s is rented at cost 500$/dunum/year
Investment Interest Rate NPV IRR Payback
Cost
1100000$ 3.5% $561,916 0.09 9
1100000$ 6% $252,147 9