Pie i Project Scheduling f Based on Expected } Activity Times \ : CHAPTER 9.1 pp ; &.In many situations managers are responsi planning,scheduling,and controlling 5projects that consist of numerous separate jobs individuals. Often these projects are so large or complex that the manager cannot Possibly remember all the information pertaining to the plan,schedule,and progress of the project.in these situations the program evaluation and review technique(PERT)and the critical path method(CPM)have proven to be extremely valuable. ’ v ywIX | PLANNING * Most important phase of the project management. « Planning is an art and science of converting a set of objectives to realization through a series of steps executed in an organized and predicted way so that there will be less requirement of changes in the plan later on. © The old saying "Plan the work, Work the Plan." Ml \ ) \t/SCHEDUE (=e) Is the process of formalizing the planned activities, assigning the durations, resources and sequences of occurance in consultation with the team y members. oy\\ ?> conrroumg = —\ « Is undertaken during the actual project imolementation. * Controlling is a mechanism established to determine deviations from the project base schedule ro re-plan and reschedule during implementation to compensate the x O deviations on the basis of commissioning, i” flow of resources like finance, manpower, equipment and application techniques.PERT and CPM can be used to plan, schedule, and control wide variety of projects common applications include: Research and Construction of plants, Maintenance of large and Design and installation of development of new buildings, and highways complex equipment new system products and processes/\ I\ PERT and CPM can help answer this following questions: 1. Whatis the total time to complete the project? 2. What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each specific activity? 3. Which activities are "critical" and must be completed exactly as scheduled to keep the project on schedule? 4, How long can "noncritical" they cause an increase in the total project completion ¥ time? activities be delayed before ~PEAT AND CPM « Although PERT and CPM have the same general purpose and utilize much of the same terminology, the techniques were developed independently. PERT was developed in the late 1950s by the Navy specifically for the Polaris missile project. PERT was developed to handle uncertain activity times. * CPM was developed originally by Dupont and Remington Rand primarily for industrial projects for which activity times were certain and variability was not a concern. CPM offered the option of reducing activity times by adding more workers and/or resources, usually at an increased cost. * Today's computerized versions the distinction between the two techniques PERT and CPM combine the best features of both is no longer necessary.+ The first step in the PERT/CPM scheduling process is to develop a list of the activity that make up the project. Table 9.1 shows the list of activities for the Western Hills Shopping Center expansion project. * Table 9.1 also shows the immediate predecessor. Immediate Predecessor column identifies the activities that must be completed immediately prior to the start of the activity. + The last column in Table 9.1 shows the expected number of weeks required to complete each ativity. For example, Activity A is expected to take 5 weeks, + Using the immediate predecessor information in Table 9.1, we can contruct a graphical representation of the project, or the project network. owner of the Westem Hills Shopping Center plans to modernize and expand the current 32-business shopping center complex. The project is expected to provide room for 8 to 10 new businesses. Financing has been arranged through a private investor. All that remains is for the owner of the shopping center to plan, schedule, and complete the expansion project. Chapel FIOM Ls SHOPPNGCENTER ROC uae93 LUST ACTHTISFOR THE WESTER HLSSHOM i ca reeceser Acti Tine Acti Description “ Nn a ner ¢ ieee OR = ih// FIGURE 9.1 PROJECT NETWORK FOR THE Uy Q WESTERN HILLS SHOPPING CENTER \ Figure 9.1 depicts the project network of Wester Shopping Center . The activities corresponds to the no of the network (drawn as rectangles), and the afcs {the lines with arrows) show the precedence relation: among the activities.!\ Figure 9.2 !\ Western-Hills Shopping Center Project. Network Wa aan pao SS 5 3 14 c H | Start > > > Finish a 12 2 NX To facilitate the PERT/CPM computations, we modified B the project network as shown in Figure 9.2. Note that ie the upper-left-hand corner of each node contains the corresponding activity letter. The activity time appears immediately below the letter.The Concept of Critical PathI DETERMINING THE CRITICAL PATH i Q : ; . . Earliest start time Earliest finish ume\, We begin by finding the earliest start time and the latest start time for all activities in the network. i A A 0 5 ES= earliest start time for an activity EF= earliest finish time for an activity 5 t= expected activity time The earliest finish time for any activity is EF= ES+1 earliest start time for activity A equal to 0. With an expected activity time of 5 weeks, the earliest finish time for activity Ais | EF= ES+1= 0+5=5 O Activity A can start as soon as the project starts, so we set the *FIGURE 9.3 A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SHOPPING CENTER PROJECT NETWORK, SHO ACTIVITIES A, B, C, AND H Earliest start time Earliest finish time Alo 5 5 T Start c wl 4 12 B] 0 6 6 i ’ € Earli Sim p arllest starttime earliest finish time ’i\ YY FIGURE 9.4 DETERMINING THE EARLIES ART TIME FOR ACTIVITY H Earliest finish time for activity C is 9 Earliest finish time for activity Bis 6ee GML CMTS MTU COOMA COO LR oq fp eis elu UTM LMT COUN INACCoLUM oXeMooLL) oLULCte Kets yy follows: LS = LATEST START TIME FOR AN ACTIVITY LF = LATEST FINISH TIME FOR AN ACTIVITY ieWOVE EARLIEST STARTARD EARLIEST FINISH THES SHOWN FOR ALL ACTINITES Ao 5 D5 8 cis O mes c|5 9) H.9 2) || 24 2 Start Finish BLO 6 EF= 26 for activity 1; the project can be completed in 26 weeks.The latest finish time for \ an activity is the smallest (i.e., earliest) of the latest start times for all activities that immediately follow the activity. Lom 26 2 24 26 Latest start J Latest finish timeAlls © I@ is Zo) START AND LATEST FINISH TIMES SHOWN IN EACH NODE. = WESTERN HILLS SHOPPING CENTER PROJECT NETWORK WITH LAI els 6 F6 10 1/5 46 10 G10 24 a erin 141024 7 NN —_ \ T cl5 9| iHi9 2| 124 26 Start > al al Finish 8 121224, (224 26 \ Figure 9.6 shows the complete project network Bo 6 with the LS and LF backward pass results. We 2 can use the latest finish time rule to verify the LS and LF values shown for activity H. The latest finish time for activity H must be the latest start time for activity I. Thus, we set LF= 24 for activity H. Using equation LS= LF-t= 24-12-12 as ‘ the latest start time for activity H. &SLACK Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed. Slack = LS - ES = LF - EFToanmnmmovoo0@e > ACTIVITY SCHEDULE FOR THE WESTERN HILLS SHOPPING CENTER PROJECT 0 Oo 5 5 oO Yes 0 6 6 12 6 5 8 9 12 3 5 7 8 10 2 5 5 6 6 0 Yes 6 6 10 10 0 Yes 10 10 24 24 0 Yes 9 12 21 24 3 24 24 26 26 0 Yes Table 9.2 indicates the slack or delay that can be tolerated for the noncritical activities before these activities will increase project completion time.1, How long will the project take to complete? Answer; The project can be completed in 26 weeks if each activity is completed on schedule. 2.What are the scheduled start and completion times for each activity? Answer: The activity schedule (see Table 9.2) shows the earliest start, latest start, earliest finish, and latest finish times for each activity. 3. Which activities are critical and must be completed exactly as scheduled to keep the project on schedule? Answer: A. E. FG, and | are the critical activities. 4,How long can noncritical activities be delayed before they cause an increase in the completion time for the project? Answer: The activity schedule (see Table 9.2) shows the slack associated with each activity.“I SUMIMARYSOEShHE PERW CR MICRIMNCALS Ple\i ih PROCEDURE yStep 1. Develop a list of the activities that make up the project. Step 2. Determine the immediate predecessor (s} for each activity in the project. Step 3. Estimate the expected completion time for each activity, Step 4. Draw a project network depicting the activities and immediate predecessors listed in steps 1 and 2.Step 5. Use the project network and the activity time estimates to determine the earliest start and the earliest finish time for each activity by making a forward pass for the last activity in the project through the network. The earliest finish time identifies the expected time required to complete the entire project. Step 6. Use the expected project completion time identified in step 5 as the latest finish for the last activity and make a backward pass through the network to identify the latest start and latest finish time for each activity. Step 7. Use the difference between the latest start time and the earliest start time for each activity to determine the slack for each activity. Step 8. Find the activities with zero slack; these are the critical activities. Step 9. Use the information from steps 5 and 6 to develop the activity schedule for the project.HOSPITAL REVENUE BOND AT SEASONGOOD & MAYER Seasongood & Mayer is an investment securities firm located in Cincinnati, Ohio. The firm engages in municipal financing, including the underwriting of new issues of municipal bonds, acting as 4 market maker for previously issued bonds, and performing other investment banking services. Seasongood & Mayer provided the underwriting for a $31 million issue of hospital facilities revenue bonds for Providence Hospital in Hamilton County, Ohio. The project of underwriting this municipal bond issue began with activities such as drafting the legal documents, drafting a description of the existing hospital facilities, and completing feasibility study, A total of 23 activities defined the project that would be completed when the hospital signed the construction contract and then made the bond proceeds available. The immediate predecessor relationships for the activities and the activity times were developed by project management team. PERT/CPM analysis of the project network identified the 10 critical path activities. The analy sis alSo provided the expected completion time of 29 weeks, or approximately seven months The activity schedule showed the start time and finish time for each activity and provided the information necessary to monitor the project and keep it on schedule. PERT/CPM was instrumental in helping Seasongood & Mayer obtain the financing for the project within the time specified in the construe, tion bid,1, Software packages such as Microsoft Project perform the critical path calculations quickly and efficiently. Program inputs include the activities, their immediate predecessors, and expected- activity times. The project manager can modify any aspect of the project and quickly determine how the modification affects the activity schedule and the expected time required to complete the project. 2. Suppose that, after analyzing a PERT/CPM network. the project manager finds that the project completion time is unacceptable (i.e..the project is going to take too long), In this case, the manager must take one or both of the following steps. First, review the original PERT/CPM network to see whether any immediate predecessor relationships can be modified so that at least some of the eritical path activities can be done simultaneously. Second, consider adding resources to critical path activities in an attempt to shorten the critical path; we discuss this alternative, referred to as crashing in Section 9.3.