Scribd
Upload
67 views7 pages

Conditional Probability

This document discusses conditional probability and Bayes' rule. It provides an example problem calculating various conditional probabilities given information about the accuracy of a diagnostic test, the percentage of the population that has a disease, and the test results of an individual. The problem is solved by defining events and using the formula for Bayes' rule to calculate the requested probabilities. References on conditional probability, complementary events, and multiplicative rules are also provided.

Uploaded by

John Raymart Costales
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
67 views7 pages

Conditional Probability

This document discusses conditional probability and Bayes' rule. It provides an example problem calculating various conditional probabilities given information about the accuracy of a diagnostic test, the percentage of the population that has a disease, and the test results of an individual. The problem is solved by defining events and using the formula for Bayes' rule to calculate the requested probabilities. References on conditional probability, complementary events, and multiplicative rules are also provided.

Uploaded by

John Raymart Costales
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 7

Conditional probability

Baye’s rule

Problem 1
A diagnostic test has a probability0.95 of giving a positive result when applied to a person suffering
from a certain disease, and a probability0.10 of giving a (false) positive when applied to a non-sufferer. It is
estimated that 0.5 % of the population are sufferers. Suppose that the test is now administered to a person about
whom we have no relevant information relating to the disease (apart from the fact that he/she comes from this
population). Calculate the following probabilities:
(a) that the test result will be positive;
(b) that, given a positive result, the person is a sufferer;
(c) that, given a negative result, the person is a non-sufferer;
(d) that the person will be misclassified.

Given:
Let T ≡ “Test positive”, S ≡ “Sufferer”, M ≡ “Misclassified.”
P(T|S) = 0.95,
P(T|S_) = 0.10,
P(S) = 0.005. Hence
Solution:

(a) P(T) = P(T|S) P(S) + P(T|S_) P(S_)


= (0.95 × 0.005) + (0.1 × 0.995)
= 0.10425.
(b) P(S|T) = P(T|S) P(S) P(T|S) P(S) + P(T|S_) P(S_)
=0.95 × 0.005 (0.95 × 0.005) + (0.1 × 0.995)
= 0.0455.
(c) P(S_|T_) = P(T_|S_) P(S_) P(T_)
= 0.9 × 0.995 (1 − 0.10425)
= 0.9997.
(d) P(M) = P (T ∩ S_) + P (T_ ∩ S)

= P(T|S_) P(S_) + P(T_|S) P(S)

= 0.09975.

Complementary Events
Multiplicative Rule
Events with Partition
Additive Rule
REFERENCES:

[email protected]. “Normal Distribution Problems with Solutions.” Normal Distribution

Problems with Solutions, www.analyzemath.com/statistics/normal_distribution.html?

fbclid=IwAR1kSIdzStUel6UYCPrZaaBhjdK62tq-Evj-e7k4aQvwbbCWjcta4DRPo4w.

[email protected]. “Normal Distribution Problems with Solutions.” Normal Distribution

Problems with Solutions, www.analyzemath.com/statistics/normal_distribution.html?

fbclid=IwAR2gdWoHXC7BXrGJC8ALSDpr9sFs2oxf_cUbQ9t_gD8rVQNiGqZ7gSmt5Q0.

“Complementary Events (Solutions, Examples, Videos).” Www.onlinemathlearning.com,

www.onlinemathlearning.com/complementary-events.html.

“Complimentary Events: Definition: Problems on Complementary Event: Examples.” Math Only

Math, www.math-only-math.com/complimentary-events.html.

Jr, Rodolfo Sotto. “Engineering Data Analysis.” Academia.edu,

www.academia.edu/40125075/Engineering_Data_Analysis?

fbclid=IwAR32bOSU_U816jnyXU4eVmBuvbYIkmYcbHyJOIbuNRVH6N_mOYCMFu-55fU.
Jr, Rodolfo Sotto. “Engineering Data Analysis.” Academia.edu,

www.academia.edu/40125075/Engineering_Data_Analysis?

fbclid=IwAR0LSoXKFtYW4gLxjmKa6BIkrwYy3RTF3N8AMyefGemsoqFCcjdmOQHYLD4.

Jr, Rodolfo Sotto. “Engineering Data Analysis.” Academia.edu,

www.academia.edu/40125075/Engineering_Data_Analysis?

fbclid=IwAR0LSoXKFtYW4gLxjmKa6BIkrwYy3RTF3N8AMyefGemsoqFCcjdmOQHYLD4.

Multiplication Rule in Probability,

www.varsitytutors.com/hotmath/hotmath_help/topics/multiplication-rule-of-probability.

Solved Problems Conditional Probability,

www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter1/1_4_5_solved3.php.

Stephanie. “Hypergeometric Distribution: Examples and Formula.” Statistics How To, 17 Feb. 2020,

www.statisticshowto.com/hypergeometric-distribution-examples/?fbclid=IwAR1-

MBIXYxPOgeNUAMCA-ytoD4EDO-Y7m68KdedK-p5d1gS_5AleleeKMOI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=PfPVNfrraa8&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR1x4rHSKckxPUgIugcFGtbROr5WrIeH26cESmbjNKiIiz7GLId4jA
bCxGs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syVW7DgvUaY&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR3k6XG-
pPbhLRWydhXxy_H4-TlerwMB3W0Dl62z1bPcohLO2APRMcCunKg

Probability and Statistic Classroom Manual

https://www.math.upenn.edu/~mmerling/math107%20docs/practice%20on%20Bayes%20solutions.pdf

You might also like