Introduction to

Artificial Intelligence
with Python
Uncertainty
Probability
Possible Worlds

P(ω)
P(ω)
0 ≤ P(ω) ≤ 1
0∑≤ P(ω) = 1
ω∈Ω
1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6
 1
P( ) = 1/6
6
2 3 4 5 6 7
3 4 5 6 7 8
4 5 6 7 8 9
5 6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10 11
7 8 9 10 11 12
2 3 4 5 6 7
3 4 5 6 7 8
4 5 6 7 8 9
5 6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10 11
7 8 9 10 11 12
2 3 4 5 6 7
3 4 5 6 7 8
4 5 6 7 8 9
5 6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10 11
7 8 9 10 11 12
 1
P(sum to 12) =
36
6 1
P(sum to 7) = =
36 6
unconditional probability
degree of belief in a proposition
in the absence of any other evidence
conditional probability
degree of belief in a proposition
given some evidence that has already
been revealed
conditional probability

P(a | b)
P(rain today | rain yesterday)
P(route change | traffic conditions)
P(disease | test results)
 P(a ∧ b)
P(a | b) =
P(b)
P(sum 12 | )
 1
P( ) =
6
 1
P(sum 12) =
36
1
1 P(sum 12 | ) =
P( ) = 6
6
 P(a ∧ b)
P(a | b) =
P(b)

P(a ∧ b) = P(b)P(a | b)
P(a ∧ b) = P(a)P(b | a)
random variable
a variable in probability theory with a
domain of possible values it can take on
random variable
Roll

{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
random variable
Weather

{sun, cloud, rain, wind, snow}

random variable
Traffic

{none, light, heavy}

random variable
Flight

{on time, delayed, cancelled}

probability distribution
P(Flight = on time) = 0.6
P(Flight = delayed) = 0.3
P(Flight = cancelled) = 0.1
probability distribution
P(Flight) = ⟨0.6, 0.3, 0.1⟩
independence
the knowledge that one event occurs does
not affect the probability of the other event
independence
P(a ∧ b) = P(a)P(b | a)
independence
P(a ∧ b) = P(a)P(b)
independence
P( ) = P( )P( )
1 1 1
= ⋅ =
6 6 36
independence
P( ) ≠ P( )P( )
1 1 1
= ⋅ =
6 6 36
independence
P( ) ≠ P( )P( | )
1
= ⋅0=0
6
Bayes' Rule
P(a ∧ b) = P(b) P(a | b)

P(a ∧ b) = P(a) P(b | a)

P(a) P(b | a) = P(b) P(a | b)
Bayes' Rule

P(b) P(a | b)
P(b | a) =
P(a)
Bayes' Rule

P(a | b) P(b)
P(b | a) =
P(a)
 AM PM

Given clouds in the morning,

what's the probability of rain in the afternoon?

• 80% of rainy afternoons start with cloudy

mornings.
• 40% of days have cloudy mornings.
• 10% of days have rainy afternoons.
 P(clouds | rain)P(rain)
P(rain | clouds) =
P(clouds)

(.8)(.1)
=
.4

= 0.2
Knowing

P(cloudy morning | rainy afternoon)

we can calculate

P(rainy afternoon | cloudy morning)

Knowing

P(visible effect | unknown cause)

we can calculate

P(unknown cause | visible effect)

Knowing

P(medical test result | disease)

we can calculate

P(disease | medical test result)

Knowing

P(blurry text | counterfeit bill)

we can calculate

P(counterfeit bill | blurry text)

Joint Probability
 PM
AM

C = cloud C = ¬cloud R = rain R = ¬rain

0.4 0.6 0.1 0.9

PM
AM

R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58
P(C | rain)
P(C, rain)
P(C | rain) = = αP(C, rain)
P(rain)

= α⟨0.08, 0.02⟩ = ⟨0.8, 0.2⟩

R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58
Probability Rules
Negation

P( ¬a) = 1 − P(a)
Inclusion-Exclusion

P(a ∨ b) = P(a) + P(b) − P(a ∧ b)

Marginalization

P(a) = P(a, b) + P(a, ¬b)

Marginalization

∑
P(X = xi) = P(X = xi, Y = yj)
j
Marginalization
R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58

P(C = cloud)
= P(C = cloud, R = rain) + P(C = cloud, R = ¬rain)
= 0.08 + 0.32
= 0.40
Conditioning

P(a) = P(a | b)P(b) + P(a | ¬b)P( ¬b)

Conditioning

∑
P(X = xi) = P(X = xi | Y = yj)P(Y = yj)
j
Bayesian Networks
Bayesian network
data structure that represents the
dependencies among random variables
Bayesian network
• directed graph
• each node represents a random variable
• arrow from X to Y means X is a parent of Y
• each node X has probability distribution
P(X | Parents(X))
 Rain
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
 Rain none light heavy
{none, light, heavy} 0.7 0.2 0.1
 Rain
{none, light, heavy}

R yes no

Maintenance none 0.4 0.6

{yes, no} light 0.2 0.8
heavy 0.1 0.9
 Rain
{none, light, heavy}

R M on time delayed
Maintenance none yes 0.8 0.2
{yes, no} none no 0.9 0.1
light yes 0.6 0.4
light no 0.7 0.3
Train heavy yes 0.4 0.6
{on time, delayed} heavy no 0.5 0.5
Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

T attend miss
Appointment on time 0.9 0.1
{attend, miss} delayed 0.6 0.4
 Rain
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
 Rain Computing Joint Probabilities
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
P(light)

P(light)
 Rain Computing Joint Probabilities
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
P(light, no)

P(light) P(no | light)

 Rain Computing Joint Probabilities
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
P(light, no, delayed)

P(light) P(no | light) P(delayed | light, no)

 Rain Computing Joint Probabilities
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
P(light, no, delayed, miss)

P(light) P(no | light) P(delayed | light, no) P(miss | delayed)

Inference
Inference

• Query X: variable for which to compute distribution

• Evidence variables E: observed variables for event e
• Hidden variables Y: non-evidence, non-query variable.

• Goal: Calculate P(X | e)

 Rain
{none, light, heavy}

P(Appointment | light, no)

Maintenance
{yes, no}
= α P(Appointment, light, no)
Train
{on time, delayed}
= α [P(Appointment, light, no, on time)
+ P(Appointment, light, no, delayed)] Appointment
{attend, miss}
Inference by Enumeration

P(X | e) = α P(X, e) = α ∑ P(X, e, y)

y

X is the query variable.

e is the evidence.
y ranges over values of hidden variables.
α normalizes the result.
Approximate Inference
Sampling
 Rain
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
 R = none

Rain none light heavy

{none, light, heavy} 0.7 0.2 0.1
 R = none
M = yes

Rain
{none, light, heavy}

R yes no

Maintenance none 0.4 0.6

{yes, no} light 0.2 0.8
heavy 0.1 0.9
 Rain R = none
{none, light, heavy} M = yes
T = on time

Maintenance
{yes, no} R M on time delayed
none yes 0.8 0.2
none no 0.9 0.1
light yes 0.6 0.4
Train light no 0.7 0.3
heavy yes 0.4 0.6
{on time, delayed} heavy no 0.5 0.5
Maintenance R = none
{yes, no}
M = yes
T = on time
Train A = attend
{on time, delayed}

T attend miss
Appointment on time 0.9 0.1
{attend, miss} delayed 0.6 0.4
 R = none
M = yes
T = on time
A = attend
 R = light R = light R = none R = none
M = no M = yes M = no M = yes
T = on time T = delayed T = on time T = on time
A = miss A = attend A = attend A = attend

R = none R = none R = heavy R = light

M = yes M = yes M = no M = no
T = on time T = on time T = delayed T = on time
A = attend A = attend A = miss A = attend
P(Train = on time) ?
 R = light R = light R = none R = none
M = no M = yes M = no M = yes
T = on time T = delayed T = on time T = on time
A = miss A = attend A = attend A = attend

R = none R = none R = heavy R = light

M = yes M = yes M = no M = no
T = on time T = on time T = delayed T = on time
A = attend A = attend A = miss A = attend
 R = light R = light R = none R = none
M = no M = yes M = no M = yes
T = on time T = delayed T = on time T = on time
A = miss A = attend A = attend A = attend

R = none R = none R = heavy R = light

M = yes M = yes M = no M = no
T = on time T = on time T = delayed T = on time
A = attend A = attend A = miss A = attend
P(Rain = light | Train = on time) ?
 R = light R = light R = none R = none
M = no M = yes M = no M = yes
T = on time T = delayed T = on time T = on time
A = miss A = attend A = attend A = attend

R = none R = none R = heavy R = light

M = yes M = yes M = no M = no
T = on time T = on time T = delayed T = on time
A = attend A = attend A = miss A = attend
 R = light R = light R = none R = none
M = no M = yes M = no M = yes
T = on time T = delayed T = on time T = on time
A = miss A = attend A = attend A = attend

R = none R = none R = heavy R = light

M = yes M = yes M = no M = no
T = on time T = on time T = delayed T = on time
A = attend A = attend A = miss A = attend
 R = light R = light R = none R = none
M = no M = yes M = no M = yes
T = on time T = delayed T = on time T = on time
A = miss A = attend A = attend A = attend

R = none R = none R = heavy R = light

M = yes M = yes M = no M = no
T = on time T = on time T = delayed T = on time
A = attend A = attend A = miss A = attend
Rejection Sampling
Likelihood Weighting
Likelihood Weighting

• Start by fixing the values for evidence variables.

• Sample the non-evidence variables using conditional
probabilities in the Bayesian Network.
• Weight each sample by its likelihood: the probability
of all of the evidence.
P(Rain = light | Train = on time) ?
 Rain
{none, light, heavy}

Maintenance
{yes, no}

Train
{on time, delayed}

Appointment
{attend, miss}
 R = light

T = on time

Rain none light heavy

{none, light, heavy} 0.7 0.2 0.1
 R = light
M = yes
T = on time
Rain
{none, light, heavy}

R yes no

Maintenance none 0.4 0.6

{yes, no} light 0.2 0.8
heavy 0.1 0.9
 Rain R = light
{none, light, heavy} M = yes
T = on time

Maintenance
{yes, no} R M on time delayed
none yes 0.8 0.2
none no 0.9 0.1
light yes 0.6 0.4
Train light no 0.7 0.3
heavy yes 0.4 0.6
{on time, delayed} heavy no 0.5 0.5
Maintenance R = light
{yes, no}
M = yes
T = on time
Train A = attend
{on time, delayed}

T attend miss
Appointment on time 0.9 0.1
{attend, miss} delayed 0.6 0.4
 Rain R = light
{none, light, heavy} M = yes
T = on time
A = attend
Maintenance
{yes, no} R M on time delayed
none yes 0.8 0.2
none no 0.9 0.1
light yes 0.6 0.4
Train light no 0.7 0.3
heavy yes 0.4 0.6
{on time, delayed} heavy no 0.5 0.5
 Rain R = light
{none, light, heavy} M = yes
T = on time
A = attend
Maintenance
{yes, no} R M on time delayed
none yes 0.8 0.2
none no 0.9 0.1
light yes 0.6 0.4
Train light no 0.7 0.3
heavy yes 0.4 0.6
{on time, delayed} heavy no 0.5 0.5
Uncertainty over Time
Xt: Weather at time t
Markov assumption
the assumption that the current state
depends on only a finite fixed number of
previous states
Markov Chain
Markov chain
a sequence of random variables where the
distribution of each variable follows the
Markov assumption
Transition Model
Tomorrow (Xt+1)

0.8 0.2
Today (Xt)
0.3 0.7
X0 X1 X2 X3 X4
Sensor Models
Hidden State Observation
robot's position robot's sensor data

words spoken audio waveforms

user engagement website or app analytics

weather umbrella
Hidden Markov Models
Hidden Markov Model
a Markov model for a system with hidden
states that generate some observed event
Sensor Model
Observation (Et)

0.2 0.8
State (Xt)
0.9 0.1
sensor Markov assumption
the assumption that the evidence variable
depends only the corresponding state
X0 X1 X2 X3 X4

E0 E1 E2 E3 E4
 Task Definition
given observations from start until now,
filtering calculate distribution for current state
given observations from start until now,
prediction calculate distribution for a future state
given observations from start until now,
smoothing calculate distribution for past state
most likely given observations from start until now,
explanation calculate most likely sequence of states
Uncertainty
 Introduction to
Artificial Intelligence
with Python